Whoa. Pass the popcorn folks. Len Mcluskey just gone all "the truth is out there" to the Guardian telling them he thinks secret services might be stirring up trouble for Corbyn.
With Trump clearly pitching for the white blue collar vote in a tight national race he probably wins Ohio and North Carolina and Florida and maybe NH and Hillary needs to win Iowa, Nevada and Colorado and Virginia, hence she picks Kaine. The election is then decided in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia and its suburbs v the more rural, rustbelt parts of the state
The White Blue Collar vote is not as large as it used to be. Not even comparable to our WWC. Trump will get far fewer Hispanic votes than even Romney. Nowhere near GWB who got an incredible 44%.
According to the current 538 forecast Trump needs a 2.2% swing to win
This gives him all the Romney states (206) + Florida (29), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Pennsylvania (20)
Pennsylvania is the toughest nut to crack. With a 1% swing Hillary would win 271-269
Nevada, with its large hispanic population, will likely be unwinnable for Trump.
Did u see what Michael Moore said about the rust belt?
Why should we care what Michael Moore says about anything?
Whoa. Pass the popcorn folks. Len Mcluskey just gone all "the truth is out there" to the Guardian telling them he thinks secret services might be stirring up trouble for Corbyn.
Whoa. Pass the popcorn folks. Len Mcluskey just gone all "the truth is out there" to the Guardian telling them he thinks secret services might be stirring up trouble for Corbyn.
Live Politics blog.
LOL!
Asked again if he believed that classified documents would eventually reveal the involvement of security forces in Corbyn’s leadership difficulties, McCluskey said: “Well I tell you what, anybody who thinks that that isn’t happening doesn’t live in the same world that I live in.”
Yeah, too right, Len. None of us live in the world you live in.
Well quite. However, let's compose ourselves with patience and see what the next couple of actual PMI reports show. The survey period covered 12th-21st July. May won the leadership on the 14th and had her first cabinet meeting on the 19th. Hence I think it's reasonable to say that we still looked a bit rudderless during the survey itself.
Yes, indeed so. In fact Chris Williamson of MarkIt confirmed that things were better once the new PM was in place, and the risk of Andrea Leadsom ending up as PM or Chancellor had been removed:
@WilliamsonChris Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
Oh stop it Richard. You lost. You have no insight of any sort on this issue, and your spinning is tiresome and repetitive.
Let me defend Richard N. to the hilt. I believe both he and @FF43 voted Remain, and both have been entirely levelheaded and fair in their criticism and observations of the Brexit process.
Some things are just objectively true, however much we might dislike it. There is uncertainty. There has been an economic shock. There might be a recession. People will lose their jobs.
The timing of the survey was unfortunate. However, if you'd prefer optimism, this creates the opportunity for a new narrative in a month or two, as the indices are likely to move back towards 50+.
Well quite. However, let's compose ourselves with patience and see what the next couple of actual PMI reports show. The survey period covered 12th-21st July. May won the leadership on the 14th and had her first cabinet meeting on the 19th. Hence I think it's reasonable to say that we still looked a bit rudderless during the survey itself.
Yes, indeed so. In fact Chris Williamson of MarkIt confirmed that things were better once the new PM was in place, and the risk of Andrea Leadsom ending up as PM or Chancellor had been removed:
@WilliamsonChris Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
Oh stop it Richard. You lost. You have no insight of any sort on this issue, and your spinning is tiresome and repetitive.
Let me defend Richard N. to the hilt. I believe both he and @FF43 voted Remain, and both have been entirely levelheaded and fair in their criticism and observations of the Brexit process.
Somethings are just objectively true, however much we might dislike it. There is uncertainty. There has been an economic shock. There might be a recession. People will lose their jobs.
The timing of the survey was unfortunate. However, if you'd prefer optimism, this creates the opportunity for a new narrative in a month or two, as the indices are likely to move back towards 50+.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive. We face a challenging situation in the shorter run with opportunities in the medium term. It is going to require considerable skill to get us through this and some clear thinking. Richard, unlike one or two others, has moved on to address the issues we face.
Whoa. Pass the popcorn folks. Len Mcluskey just gone all "the truth is out there" to the Guardian telling them he thinks secret services might be stirring up trouble for Corbyn.
Live Politics blog.
Mossad presumably?
No, MI5. Until very recently answerable to one Theresa May. Coincidence...?
Bloody brilliant. I particularly like: "Behold Jimmy Carter in a pantsuit."
Someone quoted a tweet from him this morning. "She is wrong about everything but she is wrong within the normal parameters."
For me that sums up the entire US race.
Peggy Noonan is interesting. Basically nobody who normally knows (or claims to know) i.e. all the usual commentators, pollsters, analysts, retired GOP politicians, knows what will happen.
"The shrewdest old political pro, the brightest young delegate, the owlish political journalist—they didn’t know exactly what they were witnessing. Was it the formal start of an epic political disaster? The birth of a new GOP more identified with the struggles of its base? Is 2016 a particular and contained event, or does it mark the beginning of some long-term realignment? As for Mr. Trump, is he a lightning storm that lit things up, caused some damage, will play itself out and pass? Or is he an earthquake that changed the actual shape of things, the literal lay of the land?"
Trump should not even have been a contender in a republican field that included successful State Governors, Senators and the Bush dynasty. His achievement in winning the nomination is truly incredible and anyone underestimating the currents that he has found is a fool. As in the case of Brexit there are very large numbers of people in the US who have not shared in recent prosperity and they are not happy about it or about the political elite that has taken them for granted.
I find the idea of Trump as President alarming but I cannot find it improbable.
Indeed - even those people who predicted Brexit would win thought it would be due to a low turnout. No one expected 72% turnout and 52% for leave. I fear the same mistake is being made in the states, and perhaps in France and other countries too.
For the average Joe, Trump is actually less frightening than Brexit. Trump is portrayed as a racist and a fascist, but the arguments against him don't tend to focus on him personally ruining your finances. So there is less reason to be afraid, more of a reason to take a punt of Trump. I think Hillary isn't much more than 55% favourite at this point. Her advantages are that Trump is a poor candidate and could easily screw up.
That is so cool. I'd pay a lot of money to go to a proper joust. Not pretend riding up and down with sticks for tourists - but hard competitive actually knocking the other dude off his horse and risk of injury be damned stuff. Serious jousting would get a serious audience these days. And serious money. Let's all hope and pray this comes off. MUCH cooler than cage fighting, and look how much money that brings in.
Gosh, Mr. Patrick, you do not need to pay a lot of money to see real jousting. Carisbrooke Castle, provides it on various weekend through the summer, at very reasonable rates. I think Warwick might also.
You may have a special time machine that enables to say what the Tilt was like in the Middle Ages, but I'll settle for what goes on now. Two men on horseback in armour with a closing speed of about 60mph is pretty damn exciting enough, even if their lances have tips that are designed to shatter on impact.
I suppose we could go back to the A l'Outrance jousts of the earlier medieval period, but I doubt there would be much support for it, even if it could be made illegal.
That is so cool. I'd pay a lot of money to go to a proper joust. Not pretend riding up and down with sticks for tourists - but hard competitive actually knocking the other dude off his horse and risk of injury be damned stuff. Serious jousting would get a serious audience these days. And serious money. Let's all hope and pray this comes off. MUCH cooler than cage fighting, and look how much money that brings in.
Gosh, Mr. Patrick, you do not need to pay a lot of money to see real jousting. Carisbrooke Castle, provides it on various weekend through the summer, at very reasonable rates. I think Warwick might also.
You may have a special time machine that enables to say what the Tilt was like in the Middle Ages, but I'll settle for what goes on now. Two men on horseback in armour with a closing speed of about 60mph is pretty damn exciting enough, even if their lances have tips that are designed to shatter on impact.
I suppose we could go back to the A l'Outrance jousts of the earlier medieval period, but I doubt there would be much support for it, even if it could be made illegal.
Well quite. However, let's compose ourselves with patience and see what the next couple of actual PMI reports show. The survey period covered 12th-21st July. May won the leadership on the 14th and had her first cabinet meeting on the 19th. Hence I think it's reasonable to say that we still looked a bit rudderless during the survey itself.
Yes, indeed so. In fact Chris Williamson of MarkIt confirmed that things were better once the new PM was in place, and the risk of Andrea Leadsom ending up as PM or Chancellor had been removed:
@WilliamsonChris Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
Oh stop it Richard. You lost. You have no insight of any sort on this issue, and your spinning is tiresome and repetitive.
Richard is merely telling the truth. A useful antidote to Brexiter Deniers. I'm glad that we will be free of the EU, just don't underestimate the potential difficulties.
I agree with this. The construction figures from both PMI and the ONS simply don't seem to make any sense when compared against what we can all see all around us. I think they prove to be a significant source of upward revisals in GDP over time but the tendency to understate them persists.
These are not GDP figures. GDP is about output. PMI [ Purchasing Managers Index ] is about Orders received NOW.
A lot of the orders received now will become output in the immediate/near/future periods.
Sure, but the construction figures are consistently negative even when it can be seen with the benefit of hindsight that a lot of orders were being placed. This has led to a lot of discussions about when the order is relevant, when the contract is placed, the work started, etc.
The ONS figures are even worse. They consistently find that construction is a drag on the actual economy. And all over southern England in particular there are cranes pretty much everywhere.
A pause in new orders in light of the uncertainty of Brexit does make sense. I am aware of some projects that were on hold pending the result and it will take time for these to come through given the result. But when you look at where PMIs have forecast slowdowns that did not occur construction is often at the root of it.
PMI is a relative as well as forward looking measure. Does that make sense? It's not measuring absolutes. It's a derivative, so it measures the slope of a continuous curve.
Yes, it's the same relationship as between prices and inflation rates. If the inflation rate falls, prices are still going up. The zero inflation rate is the 50 PMI number.
I agree with this. The construction figures from both PMI and the ONS simply don't seem to make any sense when compared against what we can all see all around us. I think they prove to be a significant source of upward revisals in GDP over time but the tendency to understate them persists.
These are not GDP figures. GDP is about output. PMI [ Purchasing Managers Index ] is about Orders received NOW.
A lot of the orders received now will become output in the immediate/near/future periods.
Sure, but the construction figures are consistently negative even when it can be seen with the benefit of hindsight that a lot of orders were being placed. This has led to a lot of discussions about when the order is relevant, when the contract is placed, the work started, etc.
The ONS figures are even worse. They consistently find that construction is a drag on the actual economy. And all over southern England in particular there are cranes pretty much everywhere.
A pause in new orders in light of the uncertainty of Brexit does make sense. I am aware of some projects that were on hold pending the result and it will take time for these to come through given the result. But when you look at where PMIs have forecast slowdowns that did not occur construction is often at the root of it.
PMI is a relative as well as forward looking measure. Does that make sense? It's not measuring absolutes. It's a derivative, so it measures the slope of a continuous curve.
Yes, it's the same relationship as between prices and inflation rates. If the inflation rate falls, prices are still going up. The zero inflation rate is the 50 PMI number.
Thank God someone understood me. I was longing for a whiteboard .
Well quite. However, let's compose ourselves with patience and see what the next couple of actual PMI reports show. The survey period covered 12th-21st July. May won the leadership on the 14th and had her first cabinet meeting on the 19th. Hence I think it's reasonable to say that we still looked a bit rudderless during the survey itself.
Yes, indeed so. In fact Chris Williamson of MarkIt confirmed that things were better once the new PM was in place, and the risk of Andrea Leadsom ending up as PM or Chancellor had been removed:
@WilliamsonChris Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
Oh stop it Richard. You lost. You have no insight of any sort on this issue, and your spinning is tiresome and repetitive.
Let me defend Richard N. to the hilt. I believe both he and @FF43 voted Remain, and both have been entirely levelheaded and fair in their criticism and observations of the Brexit process.
Some things are just objectively true, however much we might dislike it. There is uncertainty. There has been an economic shock. There might be a recession. People will lose their jobs.
The timing of the survey was unfortunate. However, if you'd prefer optimism, this creates the opportunity for a new narrative in a month or two, as the indices are likely to move back towards 50+.
Well, that depends. If the headlines keep screaming apocalyptically, people might start to believe them.
New track surface at Hungary. Slightly chewing up tyres more than usual. Two stops likely, if dry. Not checked a forecast lately, the early one indicated rain was possible for the race.
McLaren surprisingly good.
McLaren are doing well. Mr Hamilton also managed to make a mess of his car and get a free trip to the medical centre very early in P2, so lost a lot of running time. He's okay and so will be the car, I'd suggest laying him for pole but he has a long record of finding the big lap in Q3 no matter what went before!
Dear God. Take a look at the Guardian's summary of the day's live political blog. Just an endless stream of Corbyn bullying, abuse, Labour splits and MI5 insanity.
Dear God. Take a look at the Guardian's summary of the day's live political blog. Just an endless stream of Corbyn bullying, abuse, Labour splits and MI5 insanity.
Dear God. Take a look at the Guardian's summary of the day's live political blog. Just an endless stream of Corbyn bullying, abuse, Labour splits and MI5 insanity.
Nothing would surprise me now with the Jeremy Corbyn soap opera – next week it will be alien visits and crop circles.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
Well quite. However, let's compose ourselves with patience and see what the next couple of actual PMI reports show. The survey period covered 12th-21st July. May won the leadership on the 14th and had her first cabinet meeting on the 19th. Hence I think it's reasonable to say that we still looked a bit rudderless during the survey itself.
Yes, indeed so. In fact Chris Williamson of MarkIt confirmed that things were better once the new PM was in place, and the risk of Andrea Leadsom ending up as PM or Chancellor had been removed:
@WilliamsonChris Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
Oh stop it Richard. You lost. You have no insight of any sort on this issue, and your spinning is tiresome and repetitive.
Let me defend Richard N. to the hilt. I believe both he and @FF43 voted Remain, and both have been entirely levelheaded and fair in their criticism and observations of the Brexit process.
Somethings are just objectively true, however much we might dislike it. There is uncertainty. There has been an economic shock. There might be a recession. People will lose their jobs.
The timing of the survey was unfortunate. However, if you'd prefer optimism, this creates the opportunity for a new narrative in a month or two, as the indices are likely to move back towards 50+.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Agreed. Another Leaver here, albeit a BrexitLite fan rather than HardBrexit one, but even if the only people raising potential concerns were Remainers who called the outcome wrong, which is not the case, that Leave won does not inure it or Leavers from criticism or pessimistic analysis. Some of it will be bunkum, but some may well prove correct and useful, and automatic 'get over it' reactions, if they become prevalent, just shut down debate in a very lazy fashion as well as being unhelpful.
Well quite. However, let's compose ourselves with patience and see what the next couple of actual PMI reports show. The survey period covered 12th-21st July. May won the leadership on the 14th and had her first cabinet meeting on the 19th. Hence I think it's reasonable to say that we still looked a bit rudderless during the survey itself.
Yes, indeed so. In fact Chris Williamson of MarkIt confirmed that things were better once the new PM was in place, and the risk of Andrea Leadsom ending up as PM or Chancellor had been removed:
@WilliamsonChris Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
Oh stop it Richard. You lost. You have no insight of any sort on this issue, and your spinning is tiresome and repetitive.
Let me defend Richard N. to the hilt. I believe both he and @FF43 voted Remain, and both have been entirely levelheaded and fair in their criticism and observations of the Brexit process.
Some things are just objectively true, however much we might dislike it. There is uncertainty. There has been an economic shock. There might be a recession. People will lose their jobs.
The timing of the survey was unfortunate. However, if you'd prefer optimism, this creates the opportunity for a new narrative in a month or two, as the indices are likely to move back towards 50+.
It's certainly an interesting choice of time for the first partial PMI numbers, given how quickly things have been changing in recent weeks (unbelievably the referendum was only four weeks ago yesterday).
There's clearly a number of commentators (in the media and on blogs) who are determined to keep fighting the last battle, in strong contrast to those who supported the losing side in the referendum but accept we are where we are and now want to maximise the opportunity from the result.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
I agree up to a point. What is not productive is simply trying to refight the referendum. We are leaving.
What is still very much up for grabs is to go where, at what cost, on what terms and with what outcome. None of these questions have simple answers and only the most naïve Brexiteers ever believed that they would have.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
Yes - and before anyone says anything, some Remainers would definitely have told Leavers to shut up post Bremain, and they too would have be wrong. I like your analogy of the GE as well, since I think that applies to arguments about a second referendum too - I don't want one, and I don't see how it would be justified, but if one occurred and had a different outcome (not guaranteed) it would be a democratic outcome (albeit we'd probably have to go best our of three to settle it) but some go a bit overboard and suggest it would be undemocratic to have another vote, or undemocratic for a party to campaign on us rejoining, and that makes as much sense as saying its undemocratic for an opposition to oppose after losing a GE.
I agree with this. The construction figures from both PMI and the ONS simply don't seem to make any sense when compared against what we can all see all around us. I think they prove to be a significant source of upward revisals in GDP over time but the tendency to understate them persists.
These are not GDP figures. GDP is about output. PMI [ Purchasing Managers Index ] is about Orders received NOW.
A lot of the orders received now will become output in the immediate/near/future periods.
Sure, but the construction figures are consistently negative even when it can be seen with the benefit of hindsight that a lot of orders were being placed. This has led to a lot of discussions about when the order is relevant, when the contract is placed, the work started, etc.
The ONS figures are even worse. They consistently find that construction is a drag on the actual economy. And all over southern England in particular there are cranes pretty much everywhere.
A pause in new orders in light of the uncertainty of Brexit does make sense. I am aware of some projects that were on hold pending the result and it will take time for these to come through given the result. But when you look at where PMIs have forecast slowdowns that did not occur construction is often at the root of it.
PMI is a relative as well as forward looking measure. Does that make sense? It's not measuring absolutes. It's a derivative, so it measures the slope of a continuous curve.
Yes, it's the same relationship as between prices and inflation rates. If the inflation rate falls, prices are still going up. The zero inflation rate is the 50 PMI number.
Thank God someone understood me. I was longing for a whiteboard .
Whoa. Pass the popcorn folks. Len Mcluskey just gone all "the truth is out there" to the Guardian telling them he thinks secret services might be stirring up trouble for Corbyn.
Live Politics blog.
Mossad presumably?
No, MI5. Until very recently answerable to one Theresa May. Coincidence...?
Where's my tinfoil hat?
Uncle Len should be calling Alex Jones at InfoWars.
A century for Cook in Manchester. 190/1 and Root going nicely too.
Oh crap. Just realised I'm missing a Test match again, but good to see a bright start from the home side. What are we betting on, lay the draw as usual, or is it going to rain?
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
It is absolutely the case that the opposition doesn't keep quiet after they lose a GE. But neither do they get the right to dictate who gets to sit in the cabinet or what policies the new Government gets to enact. The problem is that too many on the Remain side still think they should be allowed to ignore the result or force the whole election to be rerun.
I am on record in a thread header as having said that the final Brexit proposals should take into account both the closeness of the result and the fact that many people voted Leave for many diverse reasons. What no one should do is try to pretend we didn't vote to Leave or that even if we did the result should be ignored.
A century for Cook in Manchester. 190/1 and Root going nicely too.
Oh crap. Just realised I'm missing a Test match again, but good to see a bright start from the home side. What are we betting on, lay the draw as usual, or is it going to rain?
Rain sunday but should be 4 full days play and possibly Sunday morning...
A century for Cook in Manchester. 190/1 and Root going nicely too.
Oh crap. Just realised I'm missing a Test match again, but good to see a bright start from the home side. What are we betting on, lay the draw as usual, or is it going to rain?
Mr. Sandpit, he's got a pretty handy record at Hungary, so I'd sooner back Rosberg than lay Hamilton (Mercedes appear to be in a class of one).
If it's wet, Alonso and Button could have their best result of the year.
Mr. Quidder, quite agree.
I'm still not sure Rosberg won't need a new gearbox, according the the bit of the commentary I caught earlier they will be looking at it tonight. Weather forecast for Sat and Sun is all over the place, so really don't have a clue what to bet on right now. Will watch the whole P2 session again tonight and have another think.
With Trump clearly pitching for the white blue collar vote in a tight national race he probably wins Ohio and North Carolina and Florida and maybe NH and Hillary needs to win Iowa, Nevada and Colorado and Virginia, hence she picks Kaine. The election is then decided in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia and its suburbs v the more rural, rustbelt parts of the state
The White Blue Collar vote is not as large as it used to be. Not even comparable to our WWC. Trump will get far fewer Hispanic votes than even Romney. Nowhere near GWB who got an incredible 44%.
According to the current 538 forecast Trump needs a 2.2% swing to win
This gives him all the Romney states (206) + Florida (29), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Pennsylvania (20)
Pennsylvania is the toughest nut to crack. With a 1% swing Hillary would win 271-269
Nevada, with its large hispanic population, will likely be unwinnable for Trump.
Did u see what Michael Moore said about the rust belt?
Why should we care what Michael Moore says about anything?
He lives in Michigan, which might be out of reach for Trump but he was talking about how the bubble are being incredibly complacent about him winning. I think he is making a very good point.
A century for Cook in Manchester. 190/1 and Root going nicely too.
Oh crap. Just realised I'm missing a Test match again, but good to see a bright start from the home side. What are we betting on, lay the draw as usual, or is it going to rain?
In Manchester? What do you think?
LOL! If we carry on at this rate we could have nearly 400 by the end of the day.
Edit: Crap, there goes Cook for 105 as I write that.
Test match odds, tea, day 1. (Betfair, Back prices)
Eng. 1.5 Pak. 14 Draw 3.75
One stake to lay the draw and half a stake on Pakistan for a trading bet?
No bet for me at the moment. From a betting perspective Pakistan winning the toss and batting would have been alot better. As is I think those prices are about right.
With Trump clearly pitching for the white blue collar vote in a tight national race he probably wins Ohio and North Carolina and Florida and maybe NH and Hillary needs to win Iowa, Nevada and Colorado and Virginia, hence she picks Kaine. The election is then decided in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia and its suburbs v the more rural, rustbelt parts of the state
The White Blue Collar vote is not as large as it used to be. Not even comparable to our WWC. Trump will get far fewer Hispanic votes than even Romney. Nowhere near GWB who got an incredible 44%.
According to the current 538 forecast Trump needs a 2.2% swing to win
This gives him all the Romney states (206) + Florida (29), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Pennsylvania (20)
Pennsylvania is the toughest nut to crack. With a 1% swing Hillary would win 271-269
Nevada, with its large hispanic population, will likely be unwinnable for Trump.
Did u see what Michael Moore said about the rust belt?
Why should we care what Michael Moore says about anything?
He lives in Michigan, which might be out of reach for Trump but he was talking about how the bubble are being incredibly complacent about him winning. I think he is making a very good point.
I noticed a complete change in the tone of Sky's reporting today re Trump - all of sudden they're not pointing and laughing anymore. Their coverage was fair for the first time too. Perhaps the penny is dropping. The references to Brexit keep coming up - it's weird to see it mentioned by US politicians and commentators.
LONDON — As some financial companies consider moving jobs out of London after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the billionaire investor Steven A. Cohen’s firm, Point72 Asset Management, is taking a contrarian view.
The firm — a family office that manages Mr. Cohen’s $11 billion fortune and the personal money of some of its employees — has doubled the size of its work force in London in the last six weeks after reopening its office here last year.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
It is absolutely the case that the opposition doesn't keep quiet after they lose a GE. But neither do they get the right to dictate who gets to sit in the cabinet or what policies the new Government gets to enact. The problem is that too many on the Remain side still think they should be allowed to ignore the result or force the whole election to be rerun.
I am on record in a thread header as having said that the final Brexit proposals should take into account both the closeness of the result and the fact that many people voted Leave for many diverse reasons. What no one should do is try to pretend we didn't vote to Leave or that even if we did the result should be ignored.
Yes I agree completely that there should be no overturning of the result or blocking it in parliament (I think the new LD policy of rejoining the EU if they get into power is legitimate, if fantasy). Brexit means brexit, as our new PM is fond of saying.
A distinction needs to be made between saying the result should be ignored (which I don't see much of on here, so mostly referring to things like the 2nd referendum petition or David Lammy saying we should overrule in parliament), and criticising weak economic figures as evidence that brexit isn't going smoothly, which is a legitimate argument (I personally think it's too early to tell so not reading much into current stats either way).
LONDON — As some financial companies consider moving jobs out of London after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the billionaire investor Steven A. Cohen’s firm, Point72 Asset Management, is taking a contrarian view.
The firm — a family office that manages Mr. Cohen’s $11 billion fortune and the personal money of some of its employees — has doubled the size of its work force in London in the last six weeks after reopening its office here last year.
Test match odds, tea, day 1. (Betfair, Back prices)
Eng. 1.5 Pak. 14 Draw 3.75
One stake to lay the draw and half a stake on Pakistan for a trading bet?
No bet for me at the moment. From a betting perspective Pakistan winning the toss and batting would have been alot better. As is I think those prices are about right.
Yes, Pakistan batting first would have been better for betting. @eek reckons we'll get at least 4 days in, my concern is that England are still batting this time tomorrow and conspire to turn a dominant performance into a messy draw. In the back of my head is also that this is Pakistan, with the unfortunate history.
Getting together some stuff to reply to your PM from the other day, by the way.
France’s highest appeals court ruled on Friday that IMF chief Christine Lagarde must stand trial for her role in a €400m payout as French finance minister in 2008 to businessman Bernard Tapie.
The court rejected her appeal against a judge’s order in December for her to stand trial at the Cour de Justice de la Repulique, a special court that tries ministers for crimes in office.
By-election in Tatton?
What has the IMF and the world done to deserve George?
Whoa. Pass the popcorn folks. Len Mcluskey just gone all "the truth is out there" to the Guardian telling them he thinks secret services might be stirring up trouble for Corbyn.
Live Politics blog.
LOL!
Asked again if he believed that classified documents would eventually reveal the involvement of security forces in Corbyn’s leadership difficulties, McCluskey said: “Well I tell you what, anybody who thinks that that isn’t happening doesn’t live in the same world that I live in.”
Yeah, too right, Len. None of us live in the world you live in.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
Yes - and before anyone says anything, some Remainers would definitely have told Leavers to shut up post Bremain, and they too would have be wrong. I like your analogy of the GE as well, since I think that applies to arguments about a second referendum too - I don't want one, and I don't see how it would be justified, but if one occurred and had a different outcome (not guaranteed) it would be a democratic outcome (albeit we'd probably have to go best our of three to settle it) but some go a bit overboard and suggest it would be undemocratic to have another vote, or undemocratic for a party to campaign on us rejoining, and that makes as much sense as saying its undemocratic for an opposition to oppose after losing a GE.
True - I like to think I would have been objective enough not to be one of them but will never know now!
I think a second vote on the terms of a brexit deal is possible and justifiable, but I don't see that being attractive to anyone as it will be between The Deal and WTO Rules, far too risky. To be honest I don't see important national referendums happening again for a very long time, which is a shame in a way as the massively increased turnout was one of the success stories of the night for a remainer like me!
France’s highest appeals court ruled on Friday that IMF chief Christine Lagarde must stand trial for her role in a €400m payout as French finance minister in 2008 to businessman Bernard Tapie.
The court rejected her appeal against a judge’s order in December for her to stand trial at the Cour de Justice de la Repulique, a special court that tries ministers for crimes in office.
By-election in Tatton?
What has the IMF and the world done to deserve George?
They cannot be that stupid
If George was a candidate he would surely need public backing from May or else he would look ridiculous. May just brutally sacked George because she thinks he can't run an economy. I don't see her risking her own reputation to back him for the post. George will fail the reference check part of the job interview!
Given some of the things of the things said on PB, a passionate Remainer insisting the referendum should be rerun is hardly the most terrifying.
The interesting thing for me at this stage is that we are all Brexiteers now. Seeing the discussion has moved away from whether we should leave, but how, it's clear the Leaver group, which now necessarily includes Theresa May, has rather little idea what to do. They are hitting the issues that some of us expected them to hit.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
Yes - and before anyone says anything, some Remainers would definitely have told Leavers to shut up post Bremain, and they too would have be wrong. I like your analogy of the GE as well, since I think that applies to arguments about a second referendum too - I don't want one, and I don't see how it would be justified, but if one occurred and had a different outcome (not guaranteed) it would be a democratic outcome (albeit we'd probably have to go best our of three to settle it) but some go a bit overboard and suggest it would be undemocratic to have another vote, or undemocratic for a party to campaign on us rejoining, and that makes as much sense as saying its undemocratic for an opposition to oppose after losing a GE.
True - I like to think I would have been objective enough not to be one of them but will never know now!
I think a second vote on the terms of a brexit deal is possible and justifiable, but I don't see that being attractive to anyone as it will be between The Deal and WTO Rules, far too risky. To be honest I don't see important national referendums happening again for a very long time, which is a shame in a way as the massively increased turnout was one of the success stories of the night for a remainer like me!
A vote on the deal makes zero sense since it will not be binding on the EU.
Given some of the things of the things said on PB, a passionate Remainer insisting the referendum should be rerun is hardly the most terrifying.
The interesting thing for me at this stage is that we are all Brexiteers now. Seeing the discussion has moved away from whether we should leave, but how, it's clear the Leaver group, which now necessarily includes Theresa May, has rather little idea what to do. They are hitting the issues that some of us expected them to hit.
The current government look anything but directionless!
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
Yes - and before anyone says anything, some Remainers would definitely have told Leavers to shut up post Bremain, and they too would have be wrong. I like your analogy of the GE as well, since I think that applies to arguments about a second referendum too - I don't want one, and I don't see how it would be justified, but if one occurred and had a different outcome (not guaranteed) it would be a democratic outcome (albeit we'd probably have to go best our of three to settle it) but some go a bit overboard and suggest it would be undemocratic to have another vote, or undemocratic for a party to campaign on us rejoining, and that makes as much sense as saying its undemocratic for an opposition to oppose after losing a GE.
True - I like to think I would have been objective enough not to be one of them but will never know now!
I think a second vote on the terms of a brexit deal is possible and justifiable, but I don't see that being attractive to anyone as it will be between The Deal and WTO Rules, far too risky. To be honest I don't see important national referendums happening again for a very long time, which is a shame in a way as the massively increased turnout was one of the success stories of the night for a remainer like me!
A vote on the deal makes zero sense since it will not be binding on the EU.
Surely it would have been agreed already with the EU? The referendum would be on either accepting it (and whatever it says about freedom of movement), or rejecting it and exiting the EU to WTO rules.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
Yes - and before anyone says anything, some Remainers would definitely have told Leavers to shut up post Bremain, and they too would have be wrong. I like your analogy of the GE as well, since I think that applies to arguments about a second referendum too - I don't want one, and I don't see how it would be justified, but if one occurred and had a different outcome (not guaranteed) it would be a democratic outcome (albeit we'd probably have to go best our of three to settle it) but some go a bit overboard and suggest it would be undemocratic to have another vote, or undemocratic for a party to campaign on us rejoining, and that makes as much sense as saying its undemocratic for an opposition to oppose after losing a GE.
True - I like to think I would have been objective enough not to be one of them but will never know now!
I think a second vote on the terms of a brexit deal is possible and justifiable, but I don't see that being attractive to anyone as it will be between The Deal and WTO Rules, far too risky. To be honest I don't see important national referendums happening again for a very long time, which is a shame in a way as the massively increased turnout was one of the success stories of the night for a remainer like me!
A vote on the deal makes zero sense since it will not be binding on the EU.
Surely it would have been agreed already with the EU? The referendum would be on either accepting it (and whatever it says about freedom of movement), or rejecting it and exiting the EU to WTO rules.
Yes exactly. A post A50 vote on agreed deal is possible. A pre A50 vote on what deal would like to have is not binding/realistic
Given some of the things of the things said on PB, a passionate Remainer insisting the referendum should be rerun is hardly the most terrifying.
The interesting thing for me at this stage is that we are all Brexiteers now. Seeing the discussion has moved away from whether we should leave, but how, it's clear the Leaver group, which now necessarily includes Theresa May, has rather little idea what to do. They are hitting the issues that some of us expected them to hit.
The current government look anything but directionless!
In general terms I agree. But what they are doing on Brexit is largely spin, I think. There are reasons for keeping their negotiating strategy close to their chest. I don't think they are at that stage however. i don't believe they know what they want in terms of a coherent strategy. Putting an idiot like David Davis in charge of the most sensitive negotiations isn't helpful. Theresa May will have to take charge at some point, hopefully before too much damage is done.
The best polling line in the speech was that corruption in America has reached a level like never before.
The group discussion at one point focused on whether or not Hillary is a murderer... Both of the black members of the panel called her a criminal.
I thought the NeverTrumps who converted - one saying he felt safe now/the country could come together, the other liking the speech 'especially on manufacturing' but having trouble 'with man' were fascinating.
Mr. P, unsurprising (amused at the Welsh, though).
May should tell them to piss off. I think a UK-wide vote is debatable. One part of the country (or three parts) having veto power over the majority is indefensible.
Mr. P, unsurprising (amused at the Welsh, though).
May should tell them to piss off. I think a UK-wide vote is debatable. One part of the country (or three parts) having veto power over the majority is indefensible.
They can demand all they want. It'll do them as much good as it did Amadiro.
I agree completely. This persistent "we won, na, na nana na" line is wearisome and unproductive.
Says the loser. Yah.
Ehh...I voted Leave.
I don't understand this idea that the losing side after a referendum should just shut up about the subject. We had a vote, the result should be respected. That doesn't mean that remainers can't offer criticism about the whole process, which can be rebutted by leavers. After a GE the opposition side doesn't just keep quiet and let the government get on with it (except the current opposition of course, who have bigger problems than a tory government!).
It is absolutely the case that the opposition doesn't keep quiet after they lose a GE. But neither do they get the right to dictate who gets to sit in the cabinet or what policies the new Government gets to enact. The problem is that too many on the Remain side still think they should be allowed to ignore the result or force the whole election to be rerun.
I am on record in a thread header as having said that the final Brexit proposals should take into account both the closeness of the result and the fact that many people voted Leave for many diverse reasons. What no one should do is try to pretend we didn't vote to Leave or that even if we did the result should be ignored.
Yes I agree completely that there should be no overturning of the result or blocking it in parliament (I think the new LD policy of rejoining the EU if they get into power is legitimate, if fantasy). Brexit means brexit, as our new PM is fond of saying.
A distinction needs to be made between saying the result should be ignored (which I don't see much of on here, so mostly referring to things like the 2nd referendum petition or David Lammy saying we should overrule in parliament), and criticising weak economic figures as evidence that brexit isn't going smoothly, which is a legitimate argument (I personally think it's too early to tell so not reading much into current stats either way).
To be honest, this whole 'parliament supports the EU' is a bit of a red herring. Aside from on the LD and SNP benches, together with a good chunk of Blairities, there is little strong ideological support for the EU over and above it being the geopolitical status quo.
Following the referendum result, I'd expect there to now be a comfortable majority in the HoC *for* Brexit, the question is what type and there's no doubt the Government will encounter difficulties if it tries to make Brexit too Alpha.
I think the Lords may play silly buggers either way, but a couple of dozen more Tory peers should sort that.
Well I've listened to Trump's speech, got bored at around the 48th minute. Things that I remember:
We deserve respect. Powerfull beating up the little guy. We will build our own things again. Fix TSA. Pay their fare share. Show the world that america is back. Winning again. I'm with you. I'm your voice. America First.
And something about renegotiating NAFTA or america will leave it, will we have NAFTEXIT or any other horrible merger of words with EXIT ?
Trump though, as it's fairly known for more than a decade, is a very bad actor when he reads from a script. His speech was not an exception, however this is all that matters:
A vote on the deal makes zero sense since it will not be binding on the EU.
Surely it would have been agreed already with the EU? The referendum would be on either accepting it (and whatever it says about freedom of movement), or rejecting it and exiting the EU to WTO rules.
I wouldn't understand it that way. It would be a vote to reject the specific outcome and to come up with a different and supposedly better settlement.
Not that I would want a second referendum. I'm not keen on referendums generally, including the one we have just had. They tend not to be choices between two clearly understood, coherent and viable options.
Mr. P, unsurprising (amused at the Welsh, though).
May should tell them to piss off. I think a UK-wide vote is debatable. One part of the country (or three parts) having veto power over the majority is indefensible.
Do you enjoy telling the Scots to jog on as much as Michael Fallon did during the Trident debate ?
Comments
Live Politics blog.
Asked again if he believed that classified documents would eventually reveal the involvement of security forces in Corbyn’s leadership difficulties, McCluskey said: “Well I tell you what, anybody who thinks that that isn’t happening doesn’t live in the same world that I live in.”
Yeah, too right, Len. None of us live in the world you live in.
Some things are just objectively true, however much we might dislike it. There is uncertainty. There has been an economic shock. There might be a recession. People will lose their jobs.
The timing of the survey was unfortunate. However, if you'd prefer optimism, this creates the opportunity for a new narrative in a month or two, as the indices are likely to move back towards 50+.
Where's my tinfoil hat?
For the average Joe, Trump is actually less frightening than Brexit. Trump is portrayed as a racist and a fascist, but the arguments against him don't tend to focus on him personally ruining your finances. So there is less reason to be afraid, more of a reason to take a punt of Trump. I think Hillary isn't much more than 55% favourite at this point. Her advantages are that Trump is a poor candidate and could easily screw up.
If it's wet, Alonso and Button could have their best result of the year.
Mr. Quidder, quite agree.
Not aiming for accuracy, just bites.
But we won, na na nana na, regardless.
I've had to scrap my nascent post-cyberpunk dystopian novel for being far too pedestrian and cheerful.
It's certainly an interesting choice of time for the first partial PMI numbers, given how quickly things have been changing in recent weeks (unbelievably the referendum was only four weeks ago yesterday).
There's clearly a number of commentators (in the media and on blogs) who are determined to keep fighting the last battle, in strong contrast to those who supported the losing side in the referendum but accept we are where we are and now want to maximise the opportunity from the result.
Statsguru is brilliant.
What is still very much up for grabs is to go where, at what cost, on what terms and with what outcome. None of these questions have simple answers and only the most naïve Brexiteers ever believed that they would have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3OkXi5osfU
I am on record in a thread header as having said that the final Brexit proposals should take into account both the closeness of the result and the fact that many people voted Leave for many diverse reasons. What no one should do is try to pretend we didn't vote to Leave or that even if we did the result should be ignored.
Main impediment to a victory will be the weather I think.
Mercedes seemed to think they were fine on the gearbox front.
I'll check weather nearer the time.
(Men's Immense sizes, that is)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/21/_michael_moore_i_think_trump_is_going_to_win.html
Edit: Crap, there goes Cook for 105 as I write that.
Is @TheScreamingEagles there?
Eng. 1.5
Pak. 14
Draw 3.75
One stake to lay the draw and half a stake on Pakistan for a trading bet?
LONDON — As some financial companies consider moving jobs out of London after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the billionaire investor Steven A. Cohen’s firm, Point72 Asset Management, is taking a contrarian view.
The firm — a family office that manages Mr. Cohen’s $11 billion fortune and the personal money of some of its employees — has doubled the size of its work force in London in the last six weeks after reopening its office here last year.
https://twitter.com/CapEconUK/status/756500090320220160
A distinction needs to be made between saying the result should be ignored (which I don't see much of on here, so mostly referring to things like the 2nd referendum petition or David Lammy saying we should overrule in parliament), and criticising weak economic figures as evidence that brexit isn't going smoothly, which is a legitimate argument (I personally think it's too early to tell so not reading much into current stats either way).
The best polling line in the speech was that corruption in America has reached a level like never before.
The group discussion at one point focused on whether or not Hillary is a murderer... Both of the black members of the panel called her a criminal.
Getting together some stuff to reply to your PM from the other day, by the way.
I think a second vote on the terms of a brexit deal is possible and justifiable, but I don't see that being attractive to anyone as it will be between The Deal and WTO Rules, far too risky. To be honest I don't see important national referendums happening again for a very long time, which is a shame in a way as the massively increased turnout was one of the success stories of the night for a remainer like me!
The interesting thing for me at this stage is that we are all Brexiteers now. Seeing the discussion has moved away from whether we should leave, but how, it's clear the Leaver group, which now necessarily includes Theresa May, has rather little idea what to do. They are hitting the issues that some of us expected them to hit.
First Cammo gone, not Poch too.... this would all be too much.
http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/62453/domestic-boom-predicted-as-us-to-uk-flight-searches-jump-22
It will feed into retail, hospitality and entertainment sectors as well.
Not to worry, Labour types, it is probably all MI5.
Thanks for sharing this.
Everyone else including extras 37...
May should tell them to piss off. I think a UK-wide vote is debatable. One part of the country (or three parts) having veto power over the majority is indefensible.
Following the referendum result, I'd expect there to now be a comfortable majority in the HoC *for* Brexit, the question is what type and there's no doubt the Government will encounter difficulties if it tries to make Brexit too Alpha.
I think the Lords may play silly buggers either way, but a couple of dozen more Tory peers should sort that.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/leader-s-aide-committed-electoral-fraud-fhsfcn2n2
Things that I remember:
We deserve respect.
Powerfull beating up the little guy.
We will build our own things again.
Fix TSA.
Pay their fare share.
Show the world that america is back.
Winning again.
I'm with you.
I'm your voice.
America First.
And something about renegotiating NAFTA or america will leave it, will we have NAFTEXIT or any other horrible merger of words with EXIT ?
Trump though, as it's fairly known for more than a decade, is a very bad actor when he reads from a script.
His speech was not an exception, however this is all that matters:
https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/756349848522194944
He got a thumbs up from viewers.
Not that I would want a second referendum. I'm not keen on referendums generally, including the one we have just had. They tend not to be choices between two clearly understood, coherent and viable options.
Titter....
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/epicfail-how-britain-stronger-europe-blew-basics-pr-marketing-hind
Cumulative Vote share change
Labour +10.4%
Lib Dems +6.9%
Conservatives -0.1%
Greens -4.4%
UKIP -5.5%
Others -7.3%
Source: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8254/elections-july-21st#ixzz4F9brr763
@AdamBienkov: It’s a bit hammer and sickle, a tiny bit socialist fist, and a lot dying anteater.
However the CNN/ORC poll gave Trump good ratings:
https://twitter.com/realDrOlmo/status/756476686993022977
Made my day.
Judas MP for Caesaria being the only one not to betray JC to the Romans in the last supper of the PLP.