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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s being reported that Virginia Senator, Tim Kaine. will
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s being reported that Virginia Senator, Tim Kaine. will be named latest today as Clinton’s running mate
A message is due to go out from the Clinton campaign later today with her choice of VP nominee. All the reports suggest that she’s chosen Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.
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......how did it work out.....?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/tim-kaine-clinton-vp_us_578fc8e3e4b0bdddc4d2c86c
Mr. Kaine, the son of a welder who owned a small metalworking shop in a Kansas City suburb, could help Mrs. Clinton attract white male voters and independents. Those voters may prove more critical to her chances in November than the young liberal voters who backed Mr. Sanders in the primaries.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/us/politics/tim-kaine-hillary-clinton-vice-president.html
Two phrases which should send fear into the heart of conservatives and what Clinton should run with -
1) 'Midnight in America', this is why Trump doesn't understand Brexit; the speech was wall to wall fear, just without any facts to, at least, back it up. This isn't 'project fear' it's 'project terror', and leaves a wide open space for the Democrats to exploit. He is the anti Reagan.
2) as per Kasparov and a twist on the original 'I preferred it in the original Russian'. This is the Trump/Putin bromance writ large. The US really wants to become a Kremlin satellite state? Again, the Democrats need to run big on this. There are numerous connections, from Manafort working for Yanukovich, to encouragement for Putin to destabilise the Baltic states and the Ukraine further.
Logically, he should be toast, but are the electorate being logical or mired in a word of 'feels? Clinton isn't unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination but it should be easy to expose how Trump can't get what he wants without massive tax rises and the fallout from that.
EDIT: I imagine Warren will be announced as the likely secretary of state or some such, something with power rather than the cheerleader job of veep.
decided. Why not switch to the winner of the national vote?
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jul/22/michael-caine-isis-islamic-state-changes-name
Apparently not a lot of airport security staff knew that.
Things were visibly slowing down even before the referendum, so I do not think it exclusively due to that. I would rather that our government took these warnings seriously rather than waiting until ambushed by events.
For sdp2 they aren't counting voted they are counting seats
If carswell (defecting mp) counts towards no + 150,000 votes then presumably 2 defecting mps + 0 votes would also qualify.
What I don't remember is whether ukip got the money before or after the last election.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/21/jousting-reasons-to-love-brexit-britain
That is so cool. I'd pay a lot of money to go to a proper joust. Not pretend riding up and down with sticks for tourists - but hard competitive actually knocking the other dude off his horse and risk of injury be damned stuff. Serious jousting would get a serious audience these days. And serious money. Let's all hope and pray this comes off. MUCH cooler than cage fighting, and look how much money that brings in.
Er I think he will defend his seat against any lib dem surge..........
France’s highest appeals court ruled on Friday that IMF chief Christine Lagarde must stand trial for her role in a €400m payout as French finance minister in 2008 to businessman Bernard Tapie.
The court rejected her appeal against a judge’s order in December for her to stand trial at the Cour de Justice de la Repulique, a special court that tries ministers for crimes in office.
http://www.english-heritage.org.uk/about-us/search-news/olympics-jousting/
As to the current PMIs, I would not worry too much. We have just been through several months of people telling us how our economy will crash if we voted out. We voted out, people who listened to the sages will be understandably twitchy. I also suspect that the people who respond to the PMI surveys are driven by the same sort of market sentiment that drives the City (see Bird and Fortune on YouTube for detail).
In general I think we're going to see final figures bounce back a little. I think this is what we'll see:
Manufacturing 49.8-50.2
Services 48.7-49.1
Construction 45-46
Composite reading of 48.9-49.1
Not great but not a disaster outside of construction. From what I can tell sentiment got better the moment we had a prime minister and the uncertainty over who that would be ended. If that race was still going and the Leadbangers were forcing May into making unfavourable concessions on the future negotiations I would have expected the weakness and uncertainty to continue. As it stands I think we're looking at a bounce back to around 50 in the near term which is where we'll stay until the government agrees a package with the EU.
You may have a special time machine that enables to say what the Tilt was like in the Middle Ages, but I'll settle for what goes on now. Two men on horseback in armour with a closing speed of about 60mph is pretty damn exciting enough, even if their lances have tips that are designed to shatter on impact.
I suppose we could go back to the A l'Outrance jousts of the earlier medieval period, but I doubt there would be much support for it, even if it could be made illegal.
Everywhere I go I see building activity, the like of which I am not sure I have ever seen before. Houses seem to be being thrown up on every available plot of land, including those that were previously deemed unsuitable for building. When I go up to Town I see a forest of tower cranes, ditto in Leeds, ditto in Cambridge. Building is happening everywhere and at frenetic pace.
So the question I hope you can answer is how the feck can the PMI be showing, still, that the construction sector is heading for recession? What friggin lead times are these people working to?
Maybe the people who make up the surveys are just a bunch of wankers repeating what they have heard/read from the media.
I dunno, I ask in a spirit of trying to understand.
Same with my journey into Waterloo. Clapham Junction onwards is just a giant building site.
It will be interesting to see the crane activity in 12-18 months time. I suspect activity will have abated rather, even if economic conditions are starting to look good again, reflecting the uncertainty of summer 2016.
I say all this without making any judgement either way of current economic circumstances except that investors may, sensibly, currently be in wait-and-see mode.
This gives him all the Romney states (206) + Florida (29), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Pennsylvania (20)
Pennsylvania is the toughest nut to crack. With a 1% swing Hillary would win 271-269
Apparently, the biblical wall will be built by Americans only.
So in that regard, the rules appear to be quite mystifying. You'd have thought they might have drafted them a bit better, wouldn't you?
The PMI measures change in activity.
To go above 50 there would need to be more activity that there is now. That is, not only do they have to be building on your street, but on the next door one.
The total amount of homes under construction in London is now at an all time high. Anything other that maintaining the current pace would result in a sub-50 number,
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/11/p-j-o-rourke-i-m-endorsing-hillary-clinton-the-devil-we-know.html
@WilliamsonChris
Though we did see signs of confidence starting to lift later into the month as the new government took shape
For that reason I think MaxPB is right to expect an improvement from these latest figures. On the other hand, it is also possible that the markets and business are currently under-estimating the risk of a messy Brexit.
The big picture remains unchanged from pre-referendum expectations of the immediate aftermath of a Leave result: there will be a sustained period of business, economic and political uncertainty, which will have a negative impact on the 'real' economy. How deep, and for how long, remains very unclear.
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/whats-in-the-basket-of-goods-80-years-of-shopping-history/
In terms of company births were concerned, the nadir was in 2010, when only 235k companies started (compared to 350k in 2014). In terms of deaths, 248k died in 2010 and 245k in 2014, though the worst year for deaths was 2009 (277k).
There literally hundreds of companies starting up and closing down every single day. It's the ratios that tell us what is actually happening in the economy.
A lot of the orders received now will become output in the immediate/near/future periods.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
The ONS figures are even worse. They consistently find that construction is a drag on the actual economy. And all over southern England in particular there are cranes pretty much everywhere.
A pause in new orders in light of the uncertainty of Brexit does make sense. I am aware of some projects that were on hold pending the result and it will take time for these to come through given the result. But when you look at where PMIs have forecast slowdowns that did not occur construction is often at the root of it.
Once the Conservatives managed to cheat their way back into being a majority government, Osborne was no longer under control. So he became a total disaster area.
He might be reasonable at the IMF, if he had Danny Alexander at this side telling him what to do.
For me that sums up the entire US race.
New track surface at Hungary. Slightly chewing up tyres more than usual. Two stops likely, if dry. Not checked a forecast lately, the early one indicated rain was possible for the race.
McLaren surprisingly good.
"The shrewdest old political pro, the brightest young delegate, the owlish political journalist—they didn’t know exactly what they were witnessing. Was it the formal start of an epic political disaster? The birth of a new GOP more identified with the struggles of its base? Is 2016 a particular and contained event, or does it mark the beginning of some long-term realignment? As for Mr. Trump, is he a lightning storm that lit things up, caused some damage, will play itself out and pass? Or is he an earthquake that changed the actual shape of things, the literal lay of the land?"
I find the idea of Trump as President alarming but I cannot find it improbable.