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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How do you solve a problem like Jeremy Corbyn and his dire polling?
Speaking as a Tory, every time I remember that Jeremy Corbyn is likely to be Labour leader at the next general election my reaction is similar to every time I remember that there’s a mineral called cummingtonite, it makes me laugh way too much.
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Oh, and a good morning to all.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693938/Boris-s-hi-viz-line-Gang-100-protesters-march-Johnson-s-house-chant-slogans-assault-police-officers.html
Do these protestors morons not understand that a family lives in that house, and several more families live in the street, or is nothing now unjustifiable under the new gentler, kinder politics of 2016?
Edit:obviously for the bet it makes a difference. Otherwise, it's the same thing which is why it will not happen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/theresa-may-plans-for-brexit-trade-deals-with-the-usa-and-austra/
The likelist scenario for a new party is not an active split, but the wave of deselections that will follow Corbyn's victory in September. The deselected MPs will sit together until the next GE.
That said, if most of the PLP does walk away, do they walk away with most of Labour's Short money? This could be an enticing possibility.
This is the rebels problem the "Labour" brand is a massive massive brand name.
May I be first to coin the PB phrase
ELEElection -- " Extinction Level Event Election" or ......ELEE for short.
Short money will indeed follow the MPs, but only if they are members of a party extant or new - some informal grouping of Indy Labour MPs won't cut it.
The goal surely has to be to get more than half of the Lab MPs to join the new party, that way they become the Official Opposition in Parliament, with a huge amount of Short money, relegating Corbyn's party to sit with the SNP on the back benches.
I suspect then the new name chosen will be more like AAA Real Labour. This resolves the ballot paper issue as well as working equally well for Yellow pages and Thompson local.
I suspect (i) that such a poll would be rejected in toto by many Labour members and that (ii) a significant proportion of those members were formerly in one or another Trotskyist sect. Certainly that was true of JC's supporters in the Hornsey CLP in the 1970s.
However, with the normal option of withdrawing the whip not open to them, the logistics of such a move would be a nightmare.
However, if the UK were to join as a party to it, the non-US countries would have a lot more weight behind them and might be able to strike a better deal. It might be worth our new SoS for Trade exploring this avenue, but not at the expense of smaller trade deals with the other Commonwealth countries.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/754558930022457344
Without deselection the PLP may decide that the least worst option is to let Corbynism face its inevitable defeat at the ballot box and then to pick up the pieces afterwards like Kinnock did in 84. With deselection though, there will be no pieces to pick up if you've been ejected, there is nothing left to lose in defecting.
However moving from Corbyn to Eagle is basically "jumping from the trying man into the dire"
Amongst other things, I was wondering how they managed to identify and then sack over 2000 judges before the dust from the falling masonry had even settled on this 6 hour "coup"?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693729/Did-Erdogan-STAGE-coup-based-Turkish-cleric-facing-extradition-botched-rebellion-claims-president-orchestrated-plot-justify-clampdown-civil-rights.html
Remarkably Betfair have Pakistan at 2 and England at 2.02 for the match, with the draw out at 100 for those who laid it earlier! Annoyingly I'm on holiday with the in-laws, will try and sneak off tomorrow for a couple of hours to watch the conclusion.
She is pushing some serious buttons amongst the electorate.
I don't think a new split Labour party (progressives?) would get the most seats at the GE, but they would probably come second, which makes the c.20/1 on offer value.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/theresa-mays-day-of-the-long-knives--two-minutesin-no-10and-mich/
Mrs May, it seems, needed little persuading. At 9.50am on Thursday, Downing Street aides called Mr Gove, who was in his ministry, to a meeting in the new Prime Minister’s oak-panelled rooms in the House of Commons with 20 minutes’ notice.
It did not last long. “There is not going to be room for you,” Mrs May told Mr Gove. “I have been talking to colleagues and the importance of loyalty is something on people’s minds.”
She did not want him in her new Cabinet because colleagues were warning he could not be trusted.
“I’m not saying there is no way back or that you’ll never serve in my government,” Mrs May added, “but it would perhaps help if you could demonstrate that loyalty from the back benches.” Mr Gove, as always, was scrupulously polite.
“Thank you very much, Prime Minister,” he said, before turning on his heels. He had been in her office for as little as two minutes.
Jeremy is publicly in the middle of a titanic struggle with the majority of his parliamentary party.
The first of these factors at least is liable to change very rapidly, as I'm sure the more honest of people here will agree. As for Corbyn, removing Corbyn won't remove the causes of Corbyn. A struggle for renewal of the Labour party is afoot, with or without him. Until that struggle is resolved Labour will always do badly in these kind of very narrowly focused and essentially point-missing polls.
One can only conclude that a major part of the attraction a lot of the world had in doing trade deals with the EU is precisely because the UK was in it.
Mr. Royale, is that a Betfair tip Mr. Meeks is pointing to?
Would it be "Blair-Brown-Millibandite?" "The sort-of -Social-Democrats" ? "The nice-progressive - middle-class party"?
Re: the politics: that's in the eye of the beholder. My parents are very much on the Conservative Right, and loved her first Downing Street statement.
They thought it was Thatcherite.
The situation with Corbyn is stark :
No Change No Chance.
It's something you have to build up over time. Stake/money available too small to do much else.
Corbyn, with his Internationalist credentials, is a Trot. He walks like a Trot, he talks like a Trot, and you can almost see the ice-pick embedded in his head.
His supporters are a varied bunch. Some are economically left-wing but socially conservative (splitters), some are Militant Tendency, some are SWP and some are just anti-Tory.
The Internationalist agenda is what will cause failure at a General Election.
There are two other problems with primacy of the PLP though, at least as things stand. First is that the current PLP apparently has no idea what it wants aside from Jeremy Corbyn's retirement. There is nothing on policy, and no alternative leader more charismatic than Corbyn has been identified.
The irony is that the current mess follows the degradation of the party in the country pursued by New Labour, with SpAds parachuted into safe seats. and the removal of policy-making and election of the shadow cabinet from the party. Concentrating power in the hands of the leader only seems like a good idea when you are the leader.
So now Labour has, thanks to New Labour, a PLP dominated by charisma-free middle-class graduates with no connection to their constituency parties, let alone their constituents, and who have no experience of campaigning or persuasion because they've never needed to fight to get selected or elected, and who have never been asked their views on any policy. Not to mention an all-powerful leader's office whose current occupant is one J Corbyn, PC MP. Heart of stone.
(That the Conservatives have or had similar problems is neither here nor there.)
Any Other is down to 19.5, so I think I'll leave it.
Had they waited another year,they just might have won the day.All their impatience has achieved is a stiffening of the Corbyn vote,as a result of which JC is going nowhere.
If a viable PD came up, it is possible that these voters together with many who still would have voted Labour could tip into a few PD's winning a few seats.
I still believe a split would result in a Tory majority of about 100 -150. I am also assuming PDs will include LDs or will have arrangements with them. Anna Soubry could be a PD.
Yet, but, even.........we were told we couldn't do deals without the EU. We would be at the back of the
queuelinequeue, a punishment budget would be needed and we would return to the Stone Age with our BMWs being towed down weed infested motorways by donkeys to the local witch doctorscavesurgery.Ideological lefties always ignore reality.
I am not going to change to Qashqai ! Nissan might close in 5 years anyway, going to Drogheda.
Corbyn is against imperialism, except when the imperialist is Milne’s Russia. He wants to stop Trident but said we should still spend billions building worthless submarines without nuclear warheads to keep the unions happy. The cowardice of it all is shameful. But consider the political advantages. Three-quarters of Labour members are middle class and just over half have a degree. A practical programme of redistribution would not only hurt the super-rich but them too. Large numbers would hurt enough to think again about giving Corbyn support. Instead of asking them to bear pain, the 21st-century far left allows them to enjoy socialism without tears. Contrary to Stalin’s apologists, it maintains you can make an omelette without breaking eggs.
Anyone can be against austerity and poverty, spin and the Westminster bubble, the bankers and the corporations, if there is no price to pay. Students can project their hopes on to the blank slate Corbyn offers them. Old soixante-huitards and the militants of the Thatcher era can refight the battles of their youth as painlessly as the Sealed Knot refights the Civil War. Wykehamist Marxists can stand shoulder to shoulder with exhibitionist celebrities; wild intellectuals with the justifiably furious shop stewards.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/corbynism-sounds-death-knell-for-labour
Firstly, the ISDS tribunals are American and are in secret. Secondly, you are treaty bound to keep your IP laws in step with the US. So, it is definitely an abrogation of sovereignty - albeit not to EU levels.
Furthermore, Japan takes 50% more US exports than the UK, and South Korea takes the same amount, so it's not clear what the rationale would be for giving us better treatment than either of those guys.
I can't realistically imagine a major divergence happening between us whether we sign TPP or not.
Not really my area, but my understanding is that their judiciary/legal system has an interesting and innovative approach to the concept of intellectual property.
As there was no restriction then on party names it was possible for a party to split and both claim to be Labour or Liberal etc
Under the Registration of Political Parties Act 1998 would that have been possible?
The zip file of the New Zealand-US version of TPP is available here: http://www.mfat.govt.nz/downloads/trade-agreement/transpacific/TPP-text/TPP_All-Chapters.zip
It's more than 3mb (zipped), and contains more than 30 chapters.
Furthermore, there are another 16 side letters relating to TPP, and which total at least another megabyte.
The TPP negotiations started in 2008, and it is still not in force.
Two more arrests in Nice apparently
Turkey
2725 judges detained. Fast work *cough*
It's hardly unprecedented in recent Turkish history.
Take the issue of copyright of broadcasts; currently in the UK we're at 50 years, and the US is at 95 years. If we signed up to the TPP, not only would we be required to change that to 95 years, but if the US Congress voted to change it (say) 120 years, we would be required to pass a law changing our term too. So, in the areas of intellectual property, it's like the EU - except that we don't get any say at all.
The rebels seem just as emotionally invested in the labour brand than Corbyn's core support. More so in fact, given his core includes SWP and others of that ilk - they'll be very glad to be be able to give a new leader a chance even if it's Effectively Corbyn in a nicer suit. Anything to avoid facing up to their party's mass ember ship seeming implacably opposed to them.
The free trade effort is largely displacement PR. We need the agreements, given that we are leaving the EU anyway. We are unlikely to end up with a set of agreements that is significantly better for us than what we would have had anyway as a member of the EU. And none of this is a substitute for the one relationship that we MUST get right, which is with the EU.
If the USA and the EU do eventually sort out TTIP, we probably would want to be a part of it. Multilateral is much better than bilateral if you can get it. Which is a big part of the problem with Brexit.