politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May – the first national polling since she became P

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.

This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.

It's typical behaviour for referendum losers to assert that the voters for the winning side are having second thoughts, or that they are thick and didn't understand the question, or that the campaign lied and cheated.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.

This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.

It's only a particular faction of Remainers who've been calling for a second referendum. At this early stage of Brexit the concept of a second referendum is wishy-washy wishful thinking. As Brexit unfolds, people's opinions of it will form and perhaps then it might appear to a plurality of people that a referendum is needed, but for the time being it's up to the government to decide whether and how the will of the people should be interpreted.

JohnLilburne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/754397516477628416

Not necessarily, they could be really poor books

Glen's a friend, and I've read the first book, so I'm a little biased but I enjoyed it.

JWisemann said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, even allowing for the fact these figures are the apotheosis of Theresa May's honeymoon, these are horrific numbers for Corbyn and Labour.

@MSmithsonPB: By 40% to 36% LAB GE2015 voters tell ComRes that May would make a better PM than Corbyn.

AND AND Mrs May is beating Jez by nearly 10 to 1 with over 65s

77% of those aged 65+ think that Theresa May would make a better PM, compared to 8% who said the same for Corbyn

Do you know, I'm beginning to suspect that Mr Corbyn is a bit crap. I don't know why. Possibly I'm psychic.

Corbyn knows he is crap. He is but John the baptist. He will stay until he is confident that someone from the hard left with charisma and ability can safely succeed him and then bide his time until the Tory party is exhausted from office and/or events discredit them - then will come the Glorious Day when Britain embraces true socialism, and heaven help us if that day arrives.

These guys are long term planners.

Corbyn is soft left these days (basic social democracy). It is just a sign of how far right the seditious wing of the party has gone that they can paint him as beyond the pale. Which in turn is why vast swathes of very moderate normal membership like myself are getting ever firmer behind him.

It's not a question of left vs right anymore. It's a question of avoiding annihilation. Those still fighting Blairites or fighting Trots need to wake up to that. They are fighting the last war.

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, even allowing for the fact these figures are the apotheosis of Theresa May's honeymoon, these are horrific numbers for Corbyn and Labour.

@MSmithsonPB: By 40% to 36% LAB GE2015 voters tell ComRes that May would make a better PM than Corbyn.

AND AND Mrs May is beating Jez by nearly 10 to 1 with over 65s

77% of those aged 65+ think that Theresa May would make a better PM, compared to 8% who said the same for Corbyn

If she can orchestrate a crisis that would require an autumn election it must be tempting on these numbers...

Enter Nicola, stage left?

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Excellent poll. ComRes confirmed as new Gold Standard

The scientist in you is going to love my morning thread, especially the opening.

Everyone else, it contains rancorous filth.

Then I will love all of the thread (especially the rancorous bit)

JWisemann said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.

This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.

I think a lot of Remainers are putting their faith in the good old British Establishment to set its wheels in motion and ensure that in reality very little actually changes.

If so, Mr Wisemann, I fear those people are going to be terribly disappointed. I sense that the political wind has changed in a way that it hasn't since just after the 1983 election. For good or ill, I think TM is taking us off in a new direction.

Casino_Royale said:

Truly horrible timeline:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/754387735427870720

Deutsche Welle had a good 'why France again?' article. Their reasoning:

1. French military active in Iraq and Syria
2. large muslim population, dual citizenship common.
3. high unemployment amongst young immigrant community
4. easier to get to france from middle east than USA/UK.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-france-again/a-19403348

jonny83 said:

Terribad polling for Labour. Seen one Labour MP already tweeting the 40% of Lab GE2015 voters prefer May over Corbyn polling.

Shh. It's only a poll. Nothing to see here, move right along.

nunu said:

anotherDave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Truly horrible timeline:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/754387735427870720

Deutsche Welle had a good 'why France again?' article. Their reasoning:

1. French military active in Iraq and Syria
2. large muslim population, dual citizenship common.
3. high unemployment amongst young immigrant community
4. easier to get to france from middle east than USA/UK.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-france-again/a-19403348

also muslim population are msinly from Arab countries.

French terrorism has a long history. Was caught in the aftermath of this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Paris_Métro_and_RER_bombings

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Excellent poll. ComRes confirmed as new Gold Standard

The scientist in you is going to love my morning thread, especially the opening.

Everyone else, it contains rancorous filth.

Then I will love all of the thread (especially the rancorous bit)

I should stress the science bit is the filth as well

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.

This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.

To be fair if we had voted 52-48 remain, there would have been Leavers calling for a re-run at the earliest possibility as well. Nigel Farage said as much himself, and the petition to rerun the referendum was actually set up by a leaver before the referendum results when he expected to lose.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Excellent poll. ComRes confirmed as new Gold Standard

The scientist in you is going to love my morning thread, especially the opening.

Everyone else, it contains rancorous filth.

Who's your new Avatar?

50% of brexiters expect a fall in unemployment within a couple of years. Just 12% think it'll rise.

p28.

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/754418948922302464

John_M said:

Of course, there is always the possibility of Euro-fudge. Germany is currently undergoing a long dark teatime of the soul on FoM. However, Davis is irritating the living fuck out of me by peddling this 'tariff-free access to SIngle Market, no problemo mate' line.

Nevertheless I think he's right. When was the last time tariffs between western countries went up.

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/754418948922302464

Slightly fewer people calling the Tory nasty, how does that feel.

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

Of course, there is always the possibility of Euro-fudge. Germany is currently undergoing a long dark teatime of the soul on FoM. However, Davis is irritating the living fuck out of me by peddling this 'tariff-free access to SIngle Market, no problemo mate' line.

Nevertheless I think he's right. When was the last time tariffs between western countries went up.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868

Tariff levels aren't the problem. With the GBP devaluation, we could live with WTO access on goods right now. They could crucify us with NTMs and TBTs. If you look at the WTO site itself, you can see that this kind of protectionism is on the rise.

MarkHopkins said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

Of course, there is always the possibility of Euro-fudge. Germany is currently undergoing a long dark teatime of the soul on FoM. However, Davis is irritating the living fuck out of me by peddling this 'tariff-free access to SIngle Market, no problemo mate' line.

Nevertheless I think he's right. When was the last time tariffs between western countries went up.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868

In one tweet, why we were right to leave.

Because it will be lethal for the EU?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Excellent poll. ComRes confirmed as new Gold Standard

The scientist in you is going to love my morning thread, especially the opening.

Everyone else, it contains rancorous filth.

Who's your new Avatar?

Former Girls Aloud member and future member of my harem, Kimberley Walsh

Ah, I see, didn't recognise her (though I have heard of her

Last week, some wise fellow tipped 2019 as our Brexit date

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/754421263104368640

nunu said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I can't help thinking that the only way to understand what is going on in France is to view it as a sequel of The Algerian War.

That would be unhelpful, they wanted something tangiable to negotiate we can't negotiate with ISIS.

They want something tangible too: France.

glw said:

Paristonda said:

To be fair if we had voted 52-48 remain, there would have been Leavers calling for a re-run at the earliest possibility as well. Nigel Farage said as much himself, and the petition to rerun the referendum was actually set up by a leaver before the referendum results when he expected to lose.

So what you are saying is that the remainer losers calling for a rerun are like Nigel Farage?

REMOANERS

@SBuckinghamUK: Let's be clear they aren't saying don't to it. They are saying don't get caught. New politics. https://t.co/AiXrz8tpjh

John_M said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I think I need to lose some weight. My two-year old just pointed at a picture of a lying-down frog in a nursery rhyme book and said: "Daddy!"

Be of good cheer. I knew when I had to lose weight (and how) when three things happened.

1. My older daughter, then age 6, started spontaneously calling me "Big Fat Daddy"

2. My father referred to me, playfully, as "looking like Henry the Eighth"

3. Worst of all, I got so tubby I literally burst a belt. A strong leather belt with a fat steel buckle.


At that point I got a grip, and lost 25 pounds, and I've never regained it. With health apps and modern scales it's quite easy to lose weight: you simply stop eating until you are the weight desired (and eat fruit for energy in between).

What apps, scales?

I love my Fitbit + Fitbit Aria. Lost 4 stone (put 1 stone back on due to my leg injury. Nothing to do these days but graze and post on PB ). Gamification of weight loss works for me.

Try hunting some Pokemon.

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I think I need to lose some weight. My two-year old just pointed at a picture of a lying-down frog in a nursery rhyme book and said: "Daddy!"

Be of good cheer. I knew when I had to lose weight (and how) when three things happened.

1. My older daughter, then age 6, started spontaneously calling me "Big Fat Daddy"

2. My father referred to me, playfully, as "looking like Henry the Eighth"

3. Worst of all, I got so tubby I literally burst a belt. A strong leather belt with a fat steel buckle.


At that point I got a grip, and lost 25 pounds, and I've never regained it. With health apps and modern scales it's quite easy to lose weight: you simply stop eating until you are the weight desired (and eat fruit for energy in between).

What apps, scales?

I love my Fitbit + Fitbit Aria. Lost 4 stone (put 1 stone back on due to my leg injury. Nothing to do these days but graze and post on PB ). Gamification of weight loss works for me.

Try hunting some Pokemon.

I can't walk very well atm. I manage 45 minutes per day. Pokemon are probably a bit beyond me for a while. Do love all the vids of the nerds staggering about under the blazing heat of the daystar though.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

nunu said:

anotherDave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Truly horrible timeline:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/754387735427870720

Deutsche Welle had a good 'why France again?' article. Their reasoning:

1. French military active in Iraq and Syria
2. large muslim population, dual citizenship common.
3. high unemployment amongst young immigrant community
4. easier to get to france from middle east than USA/UK.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-france-again/a-19403348

also muslim population are msinly from Arab countries.

French terrorism has a long history. Was caught in the aftermath of this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Paris_Métro_and_RER_bombings

nunu said:

anotherDave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Truly horrible timeline:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/754387735427870720

Deutsche Welle had a good 'why France again?' article. Their reasoning:

1. French military active in Iraq and Syria
2. large muslim population, dual citizenship common.
3. high unemployment amongst young immigrant community
4. easier to get to france from middle east than USA/UK.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-france-again/a-19403348

also muslim population are msinly from Arab countries.

I would suggest that it is also worth looking at the events of October 1961 in Paris for other reasons why Algerian French particularly feel resentment towards their adopted country.

But that's like saying British Indians feel resentment to Britain because of Amritsar.

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I think I need to lose some weight. My two-year old just pointed at a picture of a lying-down frog in a nursery rhyme book and said: "Daddy!"

Be of good cheer. I knew when I had to lose weight (and how) when three things happened.

1. My older daughter, then age 6, started spontaneously calling me "Big Fat Daddy"

2. My father referred to me, playfully, as "looking like Henry the Eighth"

3. Worst of all, I got so tubby I literally burst a belt. A strong leather belt with a fat steel buckle.


At that point I got a grip, and lost 25 pounds, and I've never regained it. With health apps and modern scales it's quite easy to lose weight: you simply stop eating until you are the weight desired (and eat fruit for energy in between).

What apps, scales?

Any of the new breed of sensitive scales that tell you your BMI, water retention etc. They don't cost much.

MyFitnessPal is a great app for monitoring weight, exercise, food intake, and the relations between.

I've been using it, lost 1 stone 9lbs this year. A lot more to go but it has been excellent so far.

A friend of mine has lost over 5 stone in two years.

The state of the current Labour party is so similar to the crisis of the Tory party described in the Selsdon Manifesto. This may give a small bit of reassurance to those in terminal distress, however I'm not confident they have policy space reflecting the one the free-marketeers provided the right to grow into.

"Electorally the situation is serious in that the
continuing failure of the Government’s counterinflation
strategy will, if prolonged, lead to nemesis
at the polls; and to the victory of a Labour Party
committed to the most extreme socialist programme
since 1945; but electoral considerations are not
all-important. What is of far greater moment is that
the Government’s apparent abandonment of its
previous electoral commitment to the free economy
invites the question ‘whether the Conservative
Party is at present fulfilling any meaningful function
in British politics.’"

People have been asking in practically the same words...
'whether the Labour Party is at present fulfilling any meaningful function in British politics.’
Spooky.

SeanT said:

Anecdotage: drinks with lefty friend tonight, who works, in Berlin, for the German equivalent of the BBC

He's a Remainer.

He said Germans are horrified by Brexit (they think we're mad not to understand the benefits of the EU) but also he said they literally have no clue as to why Brits might vote OUT (things like inequality, sovereignty, independence), hence their perplexity and recoil. He is of course talking about educated liberal Germans who work in broadcasting.

He was also interesting on Labour: his partner is a staunch Labourite with decades as a party member. After months of vacillation his partner now despairs of Corbyn, but sees no way of getting rid of him. A split looms.

The discussion ended with him saying he thought May was "really competent and electable". My guess is he'd vote for May over Corbyn, or, maybe, abstain.

He still hates Tories, though.

I am guessing your lefty friend has never been to stoke.....

John_M said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

I think I need to lose some weight. My two-year old just pointed at a picture of a lying-down frog in a nursery rhyme book and said: "Daddy!"

Be of good cheer. I knew when I had to lose weight (and how) when three things happened.

1. My older daughter, then age 6, started spontaneously calling me "Big Fat Daddy"

2. My father referred to me, playfully, as "looking like Henry the Eighth"

3. Worst of all, I got so tubby I literally burst a belt. A strong leather belt with a fat steel buckle.


At that point I got a grip, and lost 25 pounds, and I've never regained it. With health apps and modern scales it's quite easy to lose weight: you simply stop eating until you are the weight desired (and eat fruit for energy in between).

What apps, scales?

I love my Fitbit + Fitbit Aria. Lost 4 stone (put 1 stone back on due to my leg injury. Nothing to do these days but graze and post on PB ). Gamification of weight loss works for me.

MyFitnessPal is very good to measure your calories in via calories out. I'm down ~15kg in 3ish months.

For support and guidance I'd try www.reddit/r/loseit.

John_M said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Craven underhand nasty twit.

He's just stating the blindingly obvious. I can't dislike him for it.

Me either - it's not even an unreasonable position for an EU leader to take. Punishing us would be self harming for them, but being perceived as helping us too much in exiting would cause ructions across the bloc. Now, that says many things about the institution, and like all institutions its first goal has become to sustain itself rather than any other benefit, it's one of the reasons for its problems, but obviously while they don't want to be seen to be causing us problems for Leaving (though many in the EU would no doubt not shed a tear at doing so), they cannot be perceived as going easy on us either, lest others get ideas.

The EU will need a deal it can sell to its people too. We can get a good deal still, we have that opportunity, but there's going to be plenty of tough talk from both sides, and people need to not get overly emotional about it.

PS Lost 2 stone thanks to my FitBit - good motivator.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Anecdotage: drinks with lefty friend tonight, who works, in Berlin, for the German equivalent of the BBC

He's a Remainer.

He said Germans are horrified by Brexit (they think we're mad not to understand the benefits of the EU) but also he said they literally have no clue as to why Brits might vote OUT (things like inequality, sovereignty, independence), hence their perplexity and recoil. He is of course talking about educated liberal Germans who work in broadcasting.

He was also interesting on Labour: his partner is a staunch Labourite with decades as a party member. After months of vacillation his partner now despairs of Corbyn, but sees no way of getting rid of him. A split looms.

The discussion ended with him saying he thought May was "really competent and electable". My guess is he'd vote for May over Corbyn, or, maybe, abstain.

He still hates Tories, though.

I am guessing your lefty friend has never been to stoke.....

Between Andy Haldane, John Harris and Robert's magnum opus on "the discontented", we should all have a good handle on what's going on in the UK.

Don't think all our problems are going to magically disappear with Brexit. (As you may have noticed, I'm a grim-dark Brexiteer ).

Scott_P said:

@MSmithsonPB: ICM poll for Sun on Sunday has CON 10% lead

Fireworks have just started for the Bedford River Festival. As it's just about on on my doorstep not even I could sleep through that.
Pretty neat.

John_M said:

SeanT said:

anotherDave said:

kle4 said:

John_M said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Craven underhand nasty twit.

He's just stating the blindingly obvious. I can't dislike him for it.

Me either - it's not even an unreasonable position for an EU leader to take. Punishing us would be self harming for them, but being perceived as helping us too much in exiting would cause ructions across the bloc. Now, that says many things about the institution, and like all institutions its first goal has become to sustain itself rather than any other benefit, it's one of the reasons for its problems, but obviously while they don't want to be seen to be causing us problems for Leaving (though many in the EU would no doubt not shed a tear at doing so), they cannot be perceived as going easy on us either, lest others get ideas.

The EU will need a deal it can sell to its people too.

I think there will be a split between EU Commission and the nation states. The nation states are the ones looking at exports to the UK, and jobs of their voters. The EU Commission is just looking at themselves.

Power is with the nation states on this.

Yes. The Commission will be sidelined, in the end. This is about jobs, money, prosperity, and votes. Not airy fairy notions of Federalism, from an unelected eurocracy.

The EU capitals will exert power over Brussels.

If you recall, the first European polls had the French and German voters (in particular) wanting the EU to play hardball with us.

I hope they do more of those polls so we can track the trend.

I imagine if and when the Scots go Indy English voters will want to play hardball - hopefully the leaders for us then and the French and Germans now will go for something that they can sell as playing hardball but suits everyone. Though with their elections coming up...

Independent running story that an akp supporter beheaded a solider.

SeanT said:

Look at this. I mean, LOOK AT IT

https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/754423720349986816


The modern British Left. Actively moronic.

They are just pursuing the same path as they have in Scotland. 'The electorate will come around', 'We're just not communicating our message clearly enough', and, post every defeat 'Lessons will be learned'.

They got 18.6% of the seats at Holyrood in May 16.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

nunu said:

anotherDave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Truly horrible timeline:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/754387735427870720

Deutsche Welle had a good 'why France again?' article. Their reasoning:

1. French military active in Iraq and Syria
2. large muslim population, dual citizenship common.
3. high unemployment amongst young immigrant community
4. easier to get to france from middle east than USA/UK.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-france-again/a-19403348

also muslim population are msinly from Arab countries.

French terrorism has a long history. Was caught in the aftermath of this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Paris_Métro_and_RER_bombings

nunu said:

anotherDave said:

Casino_Royale said:

Truly horrible timeline:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/754387735427870720

Deutsche Welle had a good 'why France again?' article. Their reasoning:

1. French military active in Iraq and Syria
2. large muslim population, dual citizenship common.
3. high unemployment amongst young immigrant community
4. easier to get to france from middle east than USA/UK.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-france-again/a-19403348

also muslim population are msinly from Arab countries.

I would suggest that it is also worth looking at the events of October 1961 in Paris for other reasons why Algerian French particularly feel resentment towards their adopted country.

But that's like saying British Indians feel resentment to Britain because of Amritsar.

They did. The difference is that Amritsar was almost 100 years ago. And I am sure it stoked part of the resentment that led to Independence. The difference is that there are still plenty of Algerians alive today who were around for the events of 1961 and have children and grandchildren who they fill with stories about it.

This not in anyway an excuse - anymore than French involvement in the Middle East is an excuse. But it is undoubtedly the case that there were murderous actions that were taken on French soil against French Algerians in living memory that contribute to the hatred some Algerians feel towards their adopted country.

kle4 said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

anotherDave said:

kle4 said:

John_M said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Craven underhand nasty twit.

He's just stating the blindingly obvious. I can't dislike him for it.

Me either - it's not even an unreasonable position for an EU leader to take. Punishing us would be self harming for them, but being perceived as helping us too much in exiting would cause ructions across the bloc. Now, that says many things about the institution, and like all institutions its first goal has become to sustain itself rather than any other benefit, it's one of the reasons for its problems, but obviously while they don't want to be seen to be causing us problems for Leaving (though many in the EU would no doubt not shed a tear at doing so), they cannot be perceived as going easy on us either, lest others get ideas.

The EU will need a deal it can sell to its people too.

I think there will be a split between EU Commission and the nation states. The nation states are the ones looking at exports to the UK, and jobs of their voters. The EU Commission is just looking at themselves.

Power is with the nation states on this.

Yes. The Commission will be sidelined, in the end. This is about jobs, money, prosperity, and votes. Not airy fairy notions of Federalism, from an unelected eurocracy.

The EU capitals will exert power over Brussels.

If you recall, the first European polls had the French and German voters (in particular) wanting the EU to play hardball with us.

I hope they do more of those polls so we can track the trend.

I imagine if and when the Scots go Indy English voters will want to play hardball - hopefully the leaders for us then and the French and Germans now will go for something that they can sell as playing hardball but suits everyone. Though with their elections coming up...

I recall reading that the German media followed the UK referendum campaign closely, and this led to an education of the german public of how important an export market the UK is for them.

Trade deals are reciprocal. If the german public don't see that right now, I'm sure their exporters, and politicians do.

@TheScreamingEagles

Last week, some wise fellow tipped 2019 as our Brexit date

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/754421263104368640

Apparently the US is about to pull the plug on the EU TTIP trade deal as without the UK it's not worth it.

So much for being at the back of the queue.

edmundintokyo said:

SeanT said:

anotherDave said:

kle4 said:

John_M said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Craven underhand nasty twit.

He's just stating the blindingly obvious. I can't dislike him for it.

Me either - it's not even an unreasonable position for an EU leader to take. Punishing us would be self harming for them, but being perceived as helping us too much in exiting would cause ructions across the bloc. Now, that says many things about the institution, and like all institutions its first goal has become to sustain itself rather than any other benefit, it's one of the reasons for its problems, but obviously while they don't want to be seen to be causing us problems for Leaving (though many in the EU would no doubt not shed a tear at doing so), they cannot be perceived as going easy on us either, lest others get ideas.

The EU will need a deal it can sell to its people too.

I think there will be a split between EU Commission and the nation states. The nation states are the ones looking at exports to the UK, and jobs of their voters. The EU Commission is just looking at themselves.

Power is with the nation states on this.

Yes. The Commission will be sidelined, in the end. This is about jobs, money, prosperity, and votes. Not airy fairy notions of Federalism, from an unelected eurocracy.

The EU capitals will exert power over Brussels.

Yup, the Commission has power where the member states don't have strong opinions and will let somebody lead them, but in situations like this it has its hands full just trying to find something the member states can agree to.

However, The European Parliament also has a veto...

No it doesn't. Under Article 50 the decision on the future relationship between the EU and the UK rests entirely with the member states through the EU Council. And even there the decision is by QMV with no country having a veto.

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

anotherDave said:

kle4 said:

John_M said:

SimonStClare said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/753682339532836868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Craven underhand nasty twit.

He's just stating the blindingly obvious. I can't dislike him for it.

Me either - it's not even an unreasonable position for an EU leader to take. Punishing us would be self harming for them, but being perceived as helping us too much in exiting would cause ructions across the bloc. Now, that says many things about the institution, and like all institutions its first goal has become to sustain itself rather than any other benefit, it's one of the reasons for its problems, but obviously while they don't want to be seen to be causing us problems for Leaving (though many in the EU would no doubt not shed a tear at doing so), they cannot be perceived as going easy on us either, lest others get ideas.

The EU will need a deal it can sell to its people too.

I think there will be a split between EU Commission and the nation states. The nation states are the ones looking at exports to the UK, and jobs of their voters. The EU Commission is just looking at themselves.

Power is with the nation states on this.

Yes. The Commission will be sidelined, in the end. This is about jobs, money, prosperity, and votes. Not airy fairy notions of Federalism, from an unelected eurocracy.

The EU capitals will exert power over Brussels.

If you recall, the first European polls had the French and German voters (in particular) wanting the EU to play hardball with us.

I hope they do more of those polls so we can track the trend.

I imagine if and when the Scots go Indy English voters will want to play hardball - hopefully the leaders for us then and the French and Germans now will go for something that they can sell as playing hardball but suits everyone. Though with their elections coming up...

I'm increasingly convinced Scots won't even call a new indyref, let alone go indy. The economics have not changed. Scotland is bankrupt, without England, with oil at $70, let alone $50 (where it is now).

Moreover I think that, following EUref, there is an emotional voter-aversion to risk, change, and historic referendums in general (hence the honeymoon for the comfortingly maternal Ms May)

Are the Scots minded to cut the UK in two, so as to return to rule from Brussels and Frankfurt?

Nah

Sturgeon gone very quiet on calling another vote.

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/754434632368656385

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

SeanT said:

Look at this. I mean, LOOK AT IT

https://twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/754423720349986816


The modern British Left. Actively moronic.

They are just pursuing the same path as they have in Scotland. 'The electorate will come around', 'We're just not communicating our message clearly enough', and, post every defeat 'Lessons will be learned'.

They got 18.6% of the seats at Holyrood in May 16.

In Scotland they said the public were just not listening to them but the policies were right.

Alex Salmond said there just isn't votes to be had to the Left of the SNP in Scotland and the fact that Scot Lab can't see that is sad.

SeanT said:

Quite hard to gloss over the oil price.

Oil is just a bonus.

On the side of a bus.

5 Feet tall

Hmmm looks line Frau Abbott has written a new column; https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/754381471956238336

For the morning star, take that in for a moment. A newspaper with a circulation of less than 10,000 and she is writing big time columns for it.
Peter Madelson is probably weeping in a corner somewhere, wondering why he gave his youth (and a bad 'tache) to a cause that would later throw itself into obscurity.

SeanT said:

Quite hard to gloss over the oil price.

Exhibit A

@_PaulMonaghan: That's the argument, but it doesn't hold water. The flow of money is south. https://t.co/NVq5hK8jaE

Scott_P said:

@scotsdiaspora: Of course this was bound to happen. "Wales told not to expect same level of funding as from EU after voting Brexit" https://t.co/2ea4VWMW8f

Ask a stupid question....