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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May – the first national polling since she became PM
ComRes online poll for Indy/S Mirror:
More than half say that Theresa May is a strong leader (55%). Only 13% say the same for Jeremy Corbyn
Comments
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First!0
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Bah! Beaten by 'Discussion ID required'.0
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It is apparent that these attacks are not going away - indeed they are becoming more common. Wringing hands, condemning them and expressing solidarity is all very well, but at some point you have to DO something. It's time we began talking with both NATO and our allies in the middle east, with regard to start planning a military option to be employed. When, what etc is to be determined. No knee jerk reactions, no half baked responses - we should begin to plan for a comprehensive military option to be deployed at our discretion to clear the I.S. nest of vipers out once and for all. When the time is judged to be right we move, but not until then.not_on_fire said:
What exactly do you propose to do? Bombing Middle Eastern countries has demonstrably made the problem worse.Moses_ said:
Not sure if already posted but IS now claiming responsibility for Nice.SeanT said:The Bastille Day Dead. An updating page...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/who-were-the-nice-attack-victims-bastille-day-dead
Already quite heartbreaking. Six out of seven members of one family...
I heard on Radio 4 yesterday a commentator saying we just have to learn to live with terrorism. Sorry no we don't. I am fed up with namby bloody pamby way we always seem to deal with this type of incident. I am fed up with world leaders stating we will never give in before disappearing back into their bullet proof limos behind huge security.
After seeing the carnage in Nice and just imagining its was my family lying on the streets I want hell and damnation brought down on the terrorists heads from a huge height....... And I want it to hurt....
A lot.
Dying as a result of terrorism is still far less likely than dying in a car accident or of a heart attack. It's always shocking when this happens but lets keep things in proportion.0 -
Off-topic:
I think I need to lose some weight. My two-year old just pointed at a picture of a lying-down frog in a nursery rhyme book and said: "Daddy!"0 -
And people thought Cameron versus Miliband was a non contest...0
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Stick your your guns Jezza! Don't be intimidated!0
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Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!0 -
No headline voting intention from ComRes?0
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Pretty depressing for Lab, heading towards utter wipeout. At least Corbyn is seen as more principled....oh0
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It's almost certain we'd never have achieved Brexit without Jezza. His place in history is assured...
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Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!0 -
To be fair not the fairest point in time to make a comparison, given the contrasting press of a man and his membership fighting virtually his entire parliamentary party vs the hagiographically portrayed accession of an anointed semi-monarch who has made loud noises about moving to the left (which are inevitably just rhetoric and won't be borne out by reality). When that reality starts to bite we will see quite a different state of play. As for Jeremy and his supporters, the battle is first to uproot the parts of the right of the party who will always disrupt and destabilise anyone to the left of Blair.0
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I went to hear our local MP, Heidi Allen, when she held her second post-referendum meeting this afternoon.0
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That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.0 -
And????????david_kendrick1 said:I went to hear our local MP, Heidi Allen, when she held her second post-referendum meeting this afternoon.
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Any good? We missed the first one a couple of weeks ago (and probably couldn't have got in anyway).david_kendrick1 said:I went to hear our local MP, Heidi Allen, when she held her second post-referendum meeting this afternoon.
Was it busy?0 -
Weren't there questions on Smith v Corbyn as well as Eagle (from which to deduce Eagle v Smith)?0
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No other MP has even held one meeting.
Did she have to hear some whinging and whining....
I thanked her at the end for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her---they had too much moaning to do.0 -
What were they whining and whinging about? As South Cambs was heavily remain, I assume it was from people upset by the loss? How were her responses to the whinging?david_kendrick1 said:No other MP has even held one meeting.
Did she have to hear some whinging and whining....
I thanked her at the end for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her---they had too much moaning to do.
I'm seriously impressed by Mrs Allen. To not only have one meeting, but to have a second a couple of weeks later in a bigger location when the first becomes overcrowded.
Although she might have missed a trick in not livestreaming it. 0 -
Misread her name as Hide the Alien. Is she for immigration?david_kendrick1 said:I went to hear our local MP, Heidi Allen, when she held her second post-referendum meeting this afternoon.
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Iain Martin - Osborne's "firing" was "shameful"
http://reaction.life/shameful-treatment-george-osborne-heralded-troubling-reshuffle/
Well it's a point of view...0 -
Don't worry Jeremy, it's only one poll and the numbers will come back to you once the shine wears off the new PM. You're doing a great job, just carry on what you're doing and you'll be fine.
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Interesting. By the time a deal with the EU has been negotiated, the choice open to us will be either to accept it, or to leave without any special arrangement with the EU at all. Any deal is likely to incorporate some element of free movement, albeit perhaps with some restrictions.
So the majority are willing to go along with such a deal, and don't want the opportunity to vote on it.
I wonder how many of those primarily concerned with "control of out borders" were aware of the implications!0 -
The whining was from Remainers, who thought that the referendum should be re-run. They thought the voters were too stupid to understand what they had done. They all wanted more money from the EU, though none seemed to be aware that all that money comes indirectly from the British taxpayer.JosiasJessop said:
What were they whining and whinging about? As South Cambs was heavily remain, I assume it was from people upset by the loss? How were her responses to the whinging?david_kendrick1 said:No other MP has even held one meeting.
Did she have to hear some whinging and whining....
I thanked her at the end for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her---they had too much moaning to do.
I'm seriously impressed by Mrs Allen. To not only have one meeting, but to have a second a couple of weeks later in a bigger location when the first becomes overcrowded.
Although she might have missed a trick in not livestreaming it.
Heidi was sure-footed and good natured.
At the end, I went up to her and thanked her for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her----that would have interfered too much with their tedious moaning.
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That's very good of her, and well done for saying thanksdavid_kendrick1 said:No other MP has even held one meeting.
Did she have to hear some whinging and whining....
I thanked her at the end for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her---they had too much moaning to do.
Great to see politicians engaging with the communities they represent, most MPs will spend the recess giving up their weekends for a variety of local functions and other constituency work, most of which doesn't get the recognition it deserves. 0 -
Good on world stage is impressive considering she's not really done anything related to that yet.
Nasty will inevitably go up in the long run as part of being PM, understands ordinary people will go down0 -
Those are really very good numbers for May.0
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Do we genuinely think that ratings for May before she has even done anything except get a few days of universally fawning praise have any relevance to the real world? Wishful thinking?0
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FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.0
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I'd tend to agree if she weren't up against Corbyn.JWisemann said:Do we genuinely think that ratings for May before she has even done anything except get a few days of universally fawning praise have any relevance to the real world? Wishful thinking?
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No questions on the economy?0
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Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
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I just noticed a serious social crisis going on in the US right now, Pokemon Go:
https://twitter.com/MrNobre/status/754144048529625088
I have the suspicion these people are not going to vote (or work) because they will be busy catching pokemon.0 -
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
Much (perhaps most) of the World's population still lives in that World.
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That's VOTERS.Speedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.
The leadership ballot is only for MEMBERS.0 -
Agreed.Chris said:
I doubt more than a small fraction of those who voted to leave have any idea of what will be involved.GIN1138 said:
I would say the majority don't care about the "implications". That's especially true in Labour's northern heartlands.
I doubt more than a small fraction of those who voted to remain had any idea of what that would have involved, either.
Our electorate is not as politically savvy as I would wish.0 -
Well it is a Saturday and there is no election on.Speedy said:I just noticed a serious social crisis going on in the US right now, Pokemon Go:
https://twitter.com/MrNobre/status/754144048529625088
I have the suspicion these people are not going to vote (or work) because they will be busy catching pokemon.0 -
The numbers will be even BETTER for Jezza amongst members.Disraeli said:
That's VOTERS.Speedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.
The leadership ballot is only for MEMBERS.0 -
Interesting thanks. I wish I could have made it to either - and well done in saying thanks to her.david_kendrick1 said:
The whining was from Remainers, who thought that the referendum should be re-run. They thought the voters were too stupid to understand what they had done. They all wanted more money from the EU, though none seemed to be aware that all that money comes indirectly from the British taxpayer.JosiasJessop said:
What were they whining and whinging about? As South Cambs was heavily remain, I assume it was from people upset by the loss? How were her responses to the whinging?david_kendrick1 said:No other MP has even held one meeting.
Did she have to hear some whinging and whining....
I thanked her at the end for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her---they had too much moaning to do.
I'm seriously impressed by Mrs Allen. To not only have one meeting, but to have a second a couple of weeks later in a bigger location when the first becomes overcrowded.
Although she might have missed a trick in not livestreaming it.
Heidi was sure-footed and good natured.
At the end, I went up to her and thanked her for giving up her Saturday afternoon. Nobody else thanked her----that would have interfered too much with their tedious moaning
Although might your perceptions be somewhat coloured by the fact you're a hardcore leaver? 0 -
0
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So Corbyn will do even better than that.Disraeli said:
That's VOTERS.Speedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.
The leadership ballot is only for MEMBERS.0 -
I wish people would stop banging on about the tories only having 12.
As well as the tories there are 4 sinn fein who do not sit, so majority up to 16.
Then there are 8 DUP and 1 UKIP who will support most Tory measures especially Brexit, so thats up to 34.
There are also two UUP MPs who are effectively Tories - 38.
Add in a slew of pro Brexit Labour MPs like Mann, Stuart, Hoey, Field et al and you are up to a majority of 70+.
(in contrast the tory majority in 1979 was 43)
So, if Soubry, Clarke and even Gideon and co vote against the government, it will matter not a whit.
Those saying that May will go for an early election would also do well to ponder those figures above.0 -
In fact, in most of the World, politics can be a lethal profession, China, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Russia, Belarus, Pakistan, Bangladesh, almost all the Middle East and Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, the West is the exception.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
Much (perhaps most) of the World's population still lives in that World.0 -
Actually I think the article was pretty fair - more about the unnecessary nature of how it was done. She is better than that I hope.GIN1138 said:Iain Martin - Osborne's "firing" was "shameful"
http://reaction.life/shameful-treatment-george-osborne-heralded-troubling-reshuffle/
Well it's a point of view...0 -
No VI figures from Comres until further notice whilst they review their methodology .0
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LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million0 -
Or Hitler.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
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Though better than it was, Latin America is largely no longer in the grip of dictators for oneSean_F said:
In fact, in most of the World, politics can be a lethal profession, China, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Russia, Belarus, Pakistan, Bangladesh, almost all the Middle East and Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, the West is the exception.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
Much (perhaps most) of the World's population still lives in that World.0 -
In real life, there seem to be slightly fewer naked breasts for the politicians though.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
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Hi, and thank you for your hard work freeing us from the Kraken monster. Where was u campaigning in again.Casino_Royale said:Those are really very good numbers for May.
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There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million0 -
Right - who is going to invsde, depose or otherwise smite who this evening, or can we actually relax and have an early night or a relaxing summer AV discussion for once?0
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It would be interesting to know what was actually said. I imagine it was somewhat more cordial than suggested by Iain Martin, maybe he was offered another role but didn't want anything that wasn't one of the Great Offices. After his comments in the buildup to the referendum his position as CoE was untenable given the vote, even he would have understood that.felix said:
Actually I think the article was pretty fair - more about the unnecessary nature of how it was done. She is better than that I hope.GIN1138 said:Iain Martin - Osborne's "firing" was "shameful"
http://reaction.life/shameful-treatment-george-osborne-heralded-troubling-reshuffle/
Well it's a point of view...
Whoever can write the book on 2016 in British politics will make a fortune.0 -
What they are effectively saying is that becoming a serial rebel against your own party is an acceptable recourse if you lose your government job.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I wish people would stop banging on about the tories only having 12.
As well as the tories there are 4 sinn fein who do not sit, so majority up to 16.
Then there are 8 DUP and 1 UKIP who will support most Tory measures especially Brexit, so thats up to 34.
There are also two UUP MPs who are effectively Tories - 38.
Add in a slew of pro Brexit Labour MPs like Mann, Stuart, Hoey, Field et al and you are up to a majority of 70+.
(in contrast the tory majority in 1979 was 43)
So, if Soubry, Clarke and even Gideon and co vote against the government, it will matter not a whit.
Those saying that May will go for an early election would also do well to ponder those figures above.
I somehow doubt that's the game the Cameroon modernisers will play. Sniping, leaking, and "urgent constituency business" is far more likely.0 -
Thing is, Labour have already *got* the Labour voters. (Or they should have!)bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million
The wider appeal they need to win a GE is to everyone else.0 -
The Labour vote is under AV not FPTP so add the 22% who back Eagle to the 25% who back Smith and Smith beats Corbyn 47% to 44%. Under FPTP Corbyn would win comfortably, under AV or STV Smith has an outside chance and is excellent valueSpeedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.0 -
Source?Pulpstar said:
The numbers will be even BETTER for Jezza amongst members.Disraeli said:
That's VOTERS.Speedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.
The leadership ballot is only for MEMBERS. 0 -
It was here too up until around about the glorious revolution.Sean_F said:
In fact, in most of the World, politics can be a lethal profession, China, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Russia, Belarus, Pakistan, Bangladesh, almost all the Middle East and Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, the West is the exception.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
Much (perhaps most) of the World's population still lives in that World.
I wouldn't have gone near Henry VIII's court with a bargepole.0 -
I'm beginning to think Theresa May's "ruthless" start is no accident.felix said:
Actually I think the article was pretty fair - more about the unnecessary nature of how it was done. She is better than that I hope.GIN1138 said:Iain Martin - Osborne's "firing" was "shameful"
http://reaction.life/shameful-treatment-george-osborne-heralded-troubling-reshuffle/
Well it's a point of view...
It probably has it's own purposes in putting her firmly in control, but it will also have made a big impression on the continent. And elsewhere.0 -
Just a hunchDisraeli said:
Source?Pulpstar said:
The numbers will be even BETTER for Jezza amongst members.Disraeli said:
That's VOTERS.Speedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.
The leadership ballot is only for MEMBERS. 0 -
FPT
"Speedy said:
There is more, Erdogan is now threatening war on those who harbor Gulen (the USA):"
Which means the USA cannot extradite. If these guys are willing to declare war on anyone providing sanctuary his chances of survival if he is returned is zero. The USA won't like being threatened either.
Quite a stand off here developing.0 -
Yo CR welcome back.Casino_Royale said:
It was here too up until around about the glorious revolution.Sean_F said:
In fact, in most of the World, politics can be a lethal profession, China, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Russia, Belarus, Pakistan, Bangladesh, almost all the Middle East and Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, the West is the exception.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
Much (perhaps most) of the World's population still lives in that World.
I wouldn't have gone near Henry VIII's court with a bargepole.0 -
PLP - We would have gotten away with this if it hadn't been for them Pesky Lab. members/ Lab. votersJonathan said:
There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million0 -
They may have thought that they were voting for the status quo - but in fact as we both know, the EU doesn't stand still. The march to ever closer union has never stalled for long.Chris said:
But at least those who voted remain were voting for the status quo.Disraeli said:
Agreed.
I doubt more than a small fraction of those who voted to remain had any idea of what that would have involved, either.0 -
That you know of...Casino_Royale said:
In real life, there seem to be slightly fewer naked breasts for the politicians though.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
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I too have been annoyed by this and I am pleased you brought this up. The fixed term parliament act is an excuse that is 'good enough' and she should just get on with the job.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I wish people would stop banging on about the tories only having 12.
As well as the tories there are 4 sinn fein who do not sit, so majority up to 16.
Then there are 8 DUP and 1 UKIP who will support most Tory measures especially Brexit, so thats up to 34.
There are also two UUP MPs who are effectively Tories - 38.
Add in a slew of pro Brexit Labour MPs like Mann, Stuart, Hoey, Field et al and you are up to a majority of 70+.
(in contrast the tory majority in 1979 was 43)
So, if Soubry, Clarke and even Gideon and co vote against the government, it will matter not a whit.
Those saying that May will go for an early election would also do well to ponder those figures above.0 -
Thanks. I didn't really do that much. Just what I could.nunu said:
Hi, and thank you for your hard work freeing us from the Kraken monster. Where was u campaigning in again.Casino_Royale said:Those are really very good numbers for May.
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Thank you, SirTOPPING said:
Yo CR welcome back.Casino_Royale said:
It was here too up until around about the glorious revolution.Sean_F said:
In fact, in most of the World, politics can be a lethal profession, China, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Russia, Belarus, Pakistan, Bangladesh, almost all the Middle East and Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, the West is the exception.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
Much (perhaps most) of the World's population still lives in that World.
I wouldn't have gone near Henry VIII's court with a bargepole. 0 -
*checks to see if wife is around*Charles said:
That you know of...Casino_Royale said:
In real life, there seem to be slightly fewer naked breasts for the politicians though.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
If what was on offer on Game of Thrones was really the case in real life even Casino might be tempted into politics.
*minimises screen and changes webpage to something less incriminating*0 -
PLP lose. Corbyn loses. Members lose. We all lose. Brilliant. Well done. Have a cigar.bigjohnowls said:
PLP - We would have gotten away with this if it hadn't been for them Pesky Lab. members/ Lab. votersJonathan said:
There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million0 -
"No, the country comes first!" - Liz Kendall, 2015Casino_Royale said:
*checks to see if wife is around*Charles said:
That you know of...Casino_Royale said:
In real life, there seem to be slightly fewer naked breasts for the politicians though.Sean_F said:
When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.Sandpit said:
Rule #1 about a coup is that if you're going to do it, you have to succeed. Fail and you're dead.Sean_F said:FPT, the people who plotted against Erdogan may well be considered traitors in the way that people who plotted against Nero and Caligula were traitors. It doesn't make Erdogan the good guy.
If what was on offer on Game of Thrones was really the case in real life even Casino might be tempted into politics.
*minimises screen and changes webpage to something less incriminating*0 -
Well 2015 Lab VOTERS think we have a better chance with Corbyn.Jonathan said:
PLP lose. Corbyn loses. Members lose. We all lose. Brilliant. Well done. Have a cigar.bigjohnowls said:
PLP - We would have gotten away with this if it hadn't been for them Pesky Lab. members/ Lab. votersJonathan said:
There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million
You seriously think Eagle or Smith give us a better chance.
Lab. VOTERS disagree
0 -
bigjohnowls said:
Well 2015 Lab VOTERS think we have a better chance with Corbyn.Jonathan said:
PLP lose. Corbyn loses. Members lose. We all lose. Brilliant. Well done. Have a cigar.bigjohnowls said:
PLP - We would have gotten away with this if it hadn't been for them Pesky Lab. members/ Lab. votersJonathan said:
There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million
You seriously think Eagle or Smith give us a better chance.
Lab. VOTERS disagree Plus I domt like cigars0 -
Barkworth is claiming tonight that leaving the EU and joining EFTA/EEA will "give us more influence over the shaping of single market rules than we have as members of the EU."
Can anyone elaborate.
Incidentally he also confirms what Robert Smithson said a while back "Furthermore, under Article 112 of the EEA agreement, we could unilaterally insist on limited opt-outs from the EU’s “Four Freedoms”, including control of immigration, exercising a legal right which has already been used a dozen times."0 -
It will be interesting to watch how key votes go in the coming months. A handful of rebels finding something urgent in their constituency shouldn't make too much of a difference, especially given the main Opposition are tearing themselves apart.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I wish people would stop banging on about the tories only having 12.
As well as the tories there are 4 sinn fein who do not sit, so majority up to 16.
Then there are 8 DUP and 1 UKIP who will support most Tory measures especially Brexit, so thats up to 34.
There are also two UUP MPs who are effectively Tories - 38.
Add in a slew of pro Brexit Labour MPs like Mann, Stuart, Hoey, Field et al and you are up to a majority of 70+.
(in contrast the tory majority in 1979 was 43)
So, if Soubry, Clarke and even Gideon and co vote against the government, it will matter not a whit.
Those saying that May will go for an early election would also do well to ponder those figures above.
One imagines there will be a Queen's Speech in the autumn after Cameron brought forward almost nothing but the referendum last time around. Legislation not related to the EU will be whipped and most likely supported pretty much unanimously by the Tories anyway.0 -
Is it correct to say historically most Tory rebels have been right-wing eccentric/eurosceptics? If so she may have an easier time than most of the media are expecting.Sandpit said:
It will be interesting to watch how key votes go in the coming months. A handful of rebels finding something urgent in their constituency shouldn't make too much of a difference, especially given the main Opposition are tearing themselves apart.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I wish people would stop banging on about the tories only having 12.
As well as the tories there are 4 sinn fein who do not sit, so majority up to 16.
Then there are 8 DUP and 1 UKIP who will support most Tory measures especially Brexit, so thats up to 34.
There are also two UUP MPs who are effectively Tories - 38.
Add in a slew of pro Brexit Labour MPs like Mann, Stuart, Hoey, Field et al and you are up to a majority of 70+.
(in contrast the tory majority in 1979 was 43)
So, if Soubry, Clarke and even Gideon and co vote against the government, it will matter not a whit.
Those saying that May will go for an early election would also do well to ponder those figures above.
One imagines there will be a Queen's Speech in the autumn after Cameron brought forward almost nothing but the referendum last time around. Legislation not related to the EU will be whipped and most likely supported pretty much unanimously by the Tories anyway.0 -
Corbyn is failing to win over his contemporaries. Those who grew up aware of his stunts don't seem to be in a hurry to back him.0
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You can't go into an election with a leader that does not have support of his MPs. The campaign will be a bloodbath and if you did miraculously win power you would not have a majority in the commons.bigjohnowls said:
Well 2015 Lab VOTERS think we have a better chance with Corbyn.Jonathan said:
PLP lose. Corbyn loses. Members lose. We all lose. Brilliant. Well done. Have a cigar.bigjohnowls said:
PLP - We would have gotten away with this if it hadn't been for them Pesky Lab. members/ Lab. votersJonathan said:
There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million
You seriously think Eagle or Smith give us a better chance.
Lab. VOTERS disagree
What next? Deselect the entire PLP? Again bloodbath. And I suspect if that happened, Momentum would devise a way not to work with the new crop.
This is an abject disaster. The reasons behind it are well known. No point talking about it.0 -
On topic, even allowing for the fact these figures are the apotheosis of Theresa May's honeymoon, these are horrific numbers for Corbyn and Labour.
@MSmithsonPB: By 40% to 36% LAB GE2015 voters tell ComRes that May would make a better PM than Corbyn.
AND AND Mrs May is beating Jez by nearly 10 to 1 with over 65s
77% of those aged 65+ think that Theresa May would make a better PM, compared to 8% who said the same for Corbyn0 -
Yes, it's pretty much correct that the rebels have historically been from the right of the party. Today's rebels will be Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry, the former is a decent man with a blind spot who can probably be paired off for key EU-related votes, the latter can go and join the Lib Dems for how much she's cared about in the party. Maybe Nick Palmer could make a comeback, I'd vote for him in Broxsowe right now over sourpuss Soubry.Pauly said:
Is it correct to say historically most Tory rebels have been right-wing eccentric/eurosceptics? If so she may have an easier time than most of the media are expecting.Sandpit said:
It will be interesting to watch how key votes go in the coming months. A handful of rebels finding something urgent in their constituency shouldn't make too much of a difference, especially given the main Opposition are tearing themselves apart.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I wish people would stop banging on about the tories only having 12.
As well as the tories there are 4 sinn fein who do not sit, so majority up to 16.
Then there are 8 DUP and 1 UKIP who will support most Tory measures especially Brexit, so thats up to 34.
There are also two UUP MPs who are effectively Tories - 38.
Add in a slew of pro Brexit Labour MPs like Mann, Stuart, Hoey, Field et al and you are up to a majority of 70+.
(in contrast the tory majority in 1979 was 43)
So, if Soubry, Clarke and even Gideon and co vote against the government, it will matter not a whit.
Those saying that May will go for an early election would also do well to ponder those figures above.
One imagines there will be a Queen's Speech in the autumn after Cameron brought forward almost nothing but the referendum last time around. Legislation not related to the EU will be whipped and most likely supported pretty much unanimously by the Tories anyway.0 -
My view is that people playing barrack room lawyer don't understand the game. The EU is not going to allow membership of the Single Market without Freedom of Movement. If they do, they might as well pack up.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Barkworth is claiming tonight that leaving the EU and joining EFTA/EEA will "give us more influence over the shaping of single market rules than we have as members of the EU."
Can anyone elaborate.
Incidentally he also confirms what Robert Smithson said a while back "Furthermore, under Article 112 of the EEA agreement, we could unilaterally insist on limited opt-outs from the EU’s “Four Freedoms”, including control of immigration, exercising a legal right which has already been used a dozen times."
We will be able to see how Switzerland get on with their upcoming EU negotiations to get a flavour of what will be in store.
Of course, there is always the possibility of Euro-fudge. Germany is currently undergoing a long dark teatime of the soul on FoM. However, Davis is irritating the living fuck out of me by peddling this 'tariff-free access to SIngle Market, no problemo mate' line.0 -
I thought the poll offered people straight choices? In which case I would expect a lot of the Eagle people are the same people as the Smith people, so adding the two figures together makes no sense.HYUFD said:
The Labour vote is under AV not FPTP so add the 22% who back Eagle to the 25% who back Smith and Smith beats Corbyn 47% to 44%. Under FPTP Corbyn would win comfortably, under AV or STV Smith has an outside chance and is excellent valueSpeedy said:
That's a 2-1 advantage for Corbyn among Labour voters compared with his leadership rivals.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
He is comfortably going to beat them in the leadership ballot.0 -
Do you know, I'm beginning to suspect that Mr Corbyn is a bit crap. I don't know why. Possibly I'm psychic.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, even allowing for the fact these figures are the apotheosis of Theresa May's honeymoon, these are horrific numbers for Corbyn and Labour.
@MSmithsonPB: By 40% to 36% LAB GE2015 voters tell ComRes that May would make a better PM than Corbyn.
AND AND Mrs May is beating Jez by nearly 10 to 1 with over 65s
77% of those aged 65+ think that Theresa May would make a better PM, compared to 8% who said the same for Corbyn0 -
Not necessarily, they could be really poor booksTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Ahem, I am 100% street. The word is 'gg'. 'gg wp' is also acceptable.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
0
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I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.
This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.0 -
Corbyn knows he is crap. He is but John the baptist. He will stay until he is confident that someone from the hard left with charisma and ability can safely succeed him and then bide his time until the Tory party is exhausted from office and/or events discredit them - then will come the Glorious Day when Britain embraces true socialism, and heaven help us if that day arrives.John_M said:
Do you know, I'm beginning to suspect that Mr Corbyn is a bit crap. I don't know why. Possibly I'm psychic.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, even allowing for the fact these figures are the apotheosis of Theresa May's honeymoon, these are horrific numbers for Corbyn and Labour.
@MSmithsonPB: By 40% to 36% LAB GE2015 voters tell ComRes that May would make a better PM than Corbyn.
AND AND Mrs May is beating Jez by nearly 10 to 1 with over 65s
77% of those aged 65+ think that Theresa May would make a better PM, compared to 8% who said the same for Corbyn
These guys are long term planners.0 -
Sadly the media narrative is following exactly the same pattern as all the previous attacks. Nothing changes other than the speed of the cycle. We have had the not a proper Muslim yesterday & now today Articles appearing banging on about fear of backlash .Casino_Royale said:Truly horrible timeline:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/7543877354278707200 -
I can't help thinking that the only way to understand what is going on in France is to view it as a sequel of The Algerian War.0
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Labour are suicidal. They make cartoon lemmings seem sensible.Jonathan said:
You can't go into an election with a leader that does not have support of his MPs. The campaign will be a bloodbath and if you did miraculously win power you would not have a majority in the commons.bigjohnowls said:
Well 2015 Lab VOTERS think we have a better chance with Corbyn.Jonathan said:
PLP lose. Corbyn loses. Members lose. We all lose. Brilliant. Well done. Have a cigar.bigjohnowls said:
PLP - We would have gotten away with this if it hadn't been for them Pesky Lab. members/ Lab. votersJonathan said:
There is nothing LOL about what is happening to Labour.bigjohnowls said:
LOL VOTERS are all against Jezza according to PLPJonathan said:
Good figures for Smith given current recognition rel Jezza. A sitting leader should be in the 80s or 90s with their own supporters.bigjohnowls said:Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Eagle 22%
Or Amongst Lab VOTERS - Who would have more chance of being PM Jezza 44% Smith 25%
Thought actual Lab voters were 100% PLP 0% Jezza!!
All 9 million
You seriously think Eagle or Smith give us a better chance.
Lab. VOTERS disagree
What next? Deselect the entire PLP? Again bloodbath. And I suspect if that happened, Momentum would devise a way not to work with the new crop.
This is an abject disaster. The reasons behind it are well known. No point talking about it.
Jezz is crap and will never be anything close to prime minister.0 -
I think a lot of Remainers are putting their faith in the good old British Establishment to set its wheels in motion and ensure that in reality very little actually changes.FrancisUrquhart said:I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.
This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.0 -
It does look that way. At best we are in the phoney war, but quite possibly the wait for Brexit will be the wait for Godot.JWisemann said:
I think a lot of Remainers are putting their faith in the good old British Establishment to set its wheels in motion and ensure that in reality very little actually changes.FrancisUrquhart said:I see this poll busts another false narrative that was pushed in some quarters of this nationwide regret & mass desire for a second referendum / chance to change our mind.
This polling tallies with my personal experience working in a heavily remain dominated sector that think it is the wrong outcome but are just getting on with things with the assumption it is going to happen in the next few years.0
