politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s lucky to have avoided the scrutiny that there

first...like Mrs May.

Afternoon all.

Personally, I’d liked to have seen the hustings take place, if only to give a more rounded and clearer picture of the present PM. - On saying that, May has been in the public eye for a decade and the Tory membership will already have a fairly clear idea of her in their own minds and if the ballot had taken place between, TM & AL, I have no doubt May would have had a convincing win.

dr_spyn said:

"Turkey's state news agency Anadolu and the NTV news channel both report that 2,745 judges were fired across the country on Saturday.

The decision was taken by the body overseeing judges and prosecutors - the meeting was reportedly held to discuss disciplinary measures against those suspected of having links with alleged coup plotter Fetullah Gulen."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-36811357

Wasn't just a small faction of armed forces?

That has alarm bells ringing to me.

In addition: why might military and police/judicial forces be doing this, and why at this time - as aside from a few years ago when there were the popular uprisings when they might have had more effect?

JosiasJessop said:

In addition: why might military and police/judicial forces be doing this, and why at this time - as aside from a few years ago when there were the popular uprisings when they might have had more effect?

I believe Chris Bryant has a theory about that.

Theresa May was certainly lucky in her choice of opponents, with most of the Cabinet deciding not to run and then Michael Gove taking out both himself and Boris, in circumstances yet to be clearly explained. CV-gate then meant Mrs May faced no examination of her own record.

A question for the memoirs is whether Theresa May ever saw herself at the top of the greasy pole -- would she even have stood in two, three or four years' time if David Cameron had been able to keep to his original timetable?

PlatoSaid said:

Chris Mason
Downing St: PM has spoken to Australian opposite number Malcolm Turnbull. Mr Turnbull 'expressed a desire to strike a free trade deal ASAP'

Rejoice Rejoice

@Paul_Bedfordshire

That suggests a degree of foresight and planning otherwise wholly absent from any politician over the past six months.

SimonStClare said:

G-live - "Greece’s government spokesperson Olga Gerovasili has announced the Athens government is in touch with its counterpart in Ankara over the landing of a Turkish military helicopter with eight coup plotters on board in the northern border town of Alexandroupolis, Helena Smith reports".

They will be returned forthwith, despite no assurances of what their punishment might be?

One of the saddest and most shameful episodes of WWII was the Allied governments' return of Soviet POWs to the USSR, almost all of whom were either shot or imprisoned when they arrived home.

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brother reveals 'violent, drug-crazed' ISIS 'soldier' Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel smuggled £84,000 to his family in Tunisia DAYS before murdering 84 in Nice

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693227/Brother-reveals-violent-drug-crazed-ISIS-soldier-Mohamed-Lahouaiej-Bouhlel-smuggled-84-000-family-Tunisia-DAYS-murdering-84-Nice.html

Where does a petty criminal get 100k euro from?

That's significant

If I were the ISIS Fuhrer I'd be recruiting sad loser Muslim villains in the west with money, to perform atrocities, and I'd actively prefer the ones who are apparently non-religious, drinkers and gamblers etc, as they are so much less suspicious.

Is this what happened here? If so, it makes the job of French police (and ours) even harder. Suspicion falls on ALL Muslims.

I've seen a theory that these suicide jihadists are often petty criminal Muslims who are recruited by the intelligence services while in prison to be informers but are then turned by ISIS who tell them that a suicide mission is the only way to get forgiveness. No idea if true however.

SeanT said:

JonathanD said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brother reveals 'violent, drug-crazed' ISIS 'soldier' Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel smuggled £84,000 to his family in Tunisia DAYS before murdering 84 in Nice

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693227/Brother-reveals-violent-drug-crazed-ISIS-soldier-Mohamed-Lahouaiej-Bouhlel-smuggled-84-000-family-Tunisia-DAYS-murdering-84-Nice.html

Where does a petty criminal get 100k euro from?

That's significant

If I were the ISIS Fuhrer I'd be recruiting sad loser Muslim villains in the west with money, to perform atrocities, and I'd actively prefer the ones who are apparently non-religious, drinkers and gamblers etc, as they are so much less suspicious.

Is this what happened here? If so, it makes the job of French police (and ours) even harder. Suspicion falls on ALL Muslims.

I've seen a theory that these suicide jihadists are often petty criminal Muslims who are recruited by the intelligence services while in prison to be informers but are then turned by ISIS who tell them that a suicide mission is the only way to get forgiveness. No idea if true however.

But this guy had never been in prison. Just got a suspended sentence, once, and did community work.

He's a totally clean skin Muslim, in terms of radicalisation. There aren't ANY of the normal markers - "started attending mosque", "grew a beard", "learned his Koran" and so forth.

He just went straight from a druggy, boozy criminal half life to becoming a mad suicidal jihadi - and you would presume therefore he was a lone wolf.

Except that he suddenly got £84,000 the week before he killed in Nice????

The bigger question for me is what the guns and weaponry were, and where he got them. It sounds (at least from one report) like all except one handgun were fakes. That's not necessarily the hallmark of a well-planned ISIS operation.

SeanT said:

PlatoSaid said:

Conflict News
MORE: 11 Supreme Court members arrested along with 4 members of Judges Committee #TurkeyCoup - @agirecudi

MORE: Arrest warrants issued for 140 Constitutional Court members and 48 members of the Council of State #TurkeyCoup - RT

This sound to me more like an anti-coup. Erdogan had all of this just ready to go?

Was the coup actually a Reichstag fire?

Possibly, although he could just be taking advantage of. The lists of the ner-do-wells are prepared, and in many cases their phones tapped.

One interesting aside: I might be wrong, but AIUI a clause in the EU agreement with Turkey signed earlier in the year means we can take refugees, but we have to refuse Turks fleeing persecution. This may mean that it is hard for genuine plotters or those caught up in the aftermath to flee to the EU for safety.

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

JonathanD said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brother reveals 'violent, drug-crazed' ISIS 'soldier' Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel smuggled £84,000 to his family in Tunisia DAYS before murdering 84 in Nice

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693227/Brother-reveals-violent-drug-crazed-ISIS-soldier-Mohamed-Lahouaiej-Bouhlel-smuggled-84-000-family-Tunisia-DAYS-murdering-84-Nice.html

Where does a petty criminal get 100k euro from?

That's significant

If I were the ISIS Fuhrer I'd be recruiting sad loser Muslim villains in the west with money, to perform atrocities, and I'd actively prefer the ones who are apparently non-religious, drinkers and gamblers etc, as they are so much less suspicious.

Is this what happened here? If so, it makes the job of French police (and ours) even harder. Suspicion falls on ALL Muslims.

I've seen a theory that these suicide jihadists are often petty criminal Muslims who are recruited by the intelligence services while in prison to be informers but are then turned by ISIS who tell them that a suicide mission is the only way to get forgiveness. No idea if true however.

But this guy had never been in prison. Just got a suspended sentence, once, and did community work.

He's a totally clean skin Muslim, in terms of radicalisation. There aren't ANY of the normal markers - "started attending mosque", "grew a beard", "learned his Koran" and so forth.

He just went straight from a druggy, boozy criminal half life to becoming a mad suicidal jihadi - and you would presume therefore he was a lone wolf.

Except that he suddenly got £84,000 the week before he killed in Nice????

The bigger question for me is what the guns and weaponry were, and where he got them. It sounds (at least from one report) like all except one handgun were fakes. That's not necessarily the hallmark of a well-planned ISIS operation.

That is a curious detail, I agree. Why bring fake guns? What on earth is the point??? They just arouse suspicion and have no purpose.

Death by cop?

If he had just driven the van, they might have been able to detain him in such a way that he did not die. If they think he's armed to the teeth, they're much more likely to shoot him.

We'll have to wait for official news, but it's odd to say the least.

nunu said:

I see "what is a millatry coup" is one of the top searches in Google, if u listened to hard remainers logic that means all of those people who supported the Turkish coup did so before knowing what it was.

If the Turks don't know what a military coup is, then no one does.

BigIan said:

nunu said:

I see "what is a millatry coup" is one of the top searches in Google, if u listened to hard remainers logic that means all of those people who supported the Turkish coup did so before knowing what it was.

If the Turks don't know what a military coup is, then no one does.

Heck, they did a coup by memoranda in the past.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Turkish_military_memorandum

And later:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Turkish_military_memorandum

Chelsea have signed Leicester City midfielder N'Golo Kante for a fee believed to be in the region of £30m.

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought the claim they were fake guns had been denied by the police now.

I can't find any confirmation either way. Some still say they were fake, others speculating not.

One theory: ISIS gave him a job lot, and fobbed him off with some crap amidst the real stuff? So they weren't fake, just old and malfunctioning?

There was an interesting tit bit from panorama documentary over Paris, that basically Isis have a weapons delivery network where recruits can order & a car will be left loaded with hardware. That has happened not just in Paris incident but in other foiled attacks.

The media have been pushing the mental illness / nothing to lose petty criminal who radicalised himself over the past few weeks & acted alone. The 100k euro claim doesn't really fit that narrative.

stjohn said:

Margaret Thatcher is reputed to have said, "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure."

How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."

Discuss.

My productivity during my recent absence from PB went down markedly.

Than again, I was very ill.

How about:
"A man who, beyond the age of 26, can afford to spend hours and days on PB.com can count himself a success."

Good summary of Brexit negotiation aims by David Davies at


http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-new-brexit-ministers-negotiating-position-helpfully-set-out-51306.html

JosiasJessop said:

dr_spyn said:

"Turkey's state news agency Anadolu and the NTV news channel both report that 2,745 judges were fired across the country on Saturday.

The decision was taken by the body overseeing judges and prosecutors - the meeting was reportedly held to discuss disciplinary measures against those suspected of having links with alleged coup plotter Fetullah Gulen."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-36811357

Wasn't just a small faction of armed forces?

It may have been, but the government forces are using the opportunity to round up other troublesome (to them) individuals and groups.

The state-within-a-state ("deep state") idea has a long history within Turkey (no wonder given the number of coups they have had), and is either real, non-existent, or vastly exaggerated to be used as a bogeyman by different groups.

An example is the Ergenekon conspiracy, which led to hundreds of people being arrested in 2011. This might have been a join Erdogan - Gulen operation. When they had a falling out a couple of years later and Gulen's people allegedly arrested lots of Erdogan's, suddenly the 2011 plotters were mostly acquitted and the judges who arrested them (and who had just arrested Erdogan's people) were charged!

Turkish politics makes ours look positive uneventful.

My family are safe for the moment. Sadly I can only say for the moment ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergenekon_(allegation)

Do you think the coup may have been a sham?

I suspect there is less luck at play here than you'd imagine. Just because the new PM wasn't obviously playing the game doesn't mean she wasn't. I don't believe you become PM by chance. I think Theresa May knew what she was doing, and essentially outmanoeuvred her opponents. I think Gove did what he did because the contest was already moving from stop Boris to stop May. You have to remember that May knows the Conservative party and is excessively thorough.

It was obvious from the moment Cameron announced his resignation that the final two would be her and Boris. I think Gove thought May would play serious vs shallow on Boris and it would likely work, something she wouldn't be able to do with him as much. I don't think he anticipated it would push Boris out of the race but that it would complicate May's path to the final two. I think he figured Boris was obsessed enough to plough on regardless.

May never looked like she was fighting because she'd prepared and had worked out how to game the election. First get to the final two then fight the election from there. I think she ended up with 50 more votes than she expected in R1 because everyone else were playing catch up and making a horlicks of it. We will have to wait a while for the full inside story of this leadership election but I don't think Theresa May is where she is by mere luck. I think her erstwhile opponents found out rather too late that she is even more formidable than her reputation and plays the game less obviously but more successfully.

Miss JGP, the furious pace had to end sooner or later, thankfully.

JosiasJessop said:

stjohn said:

Margaret Thatcher is reputed to have said, "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure."

How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."

Discuss.

My productivity during my recent absence from PB went down markedly.

Than again, I was very ill.

How about:
"A man who, beyond the age of 26, can afford to spend hours and days on PB.com can count himself a success."

JJ. Yes, that's much better! Whether PBers are making good choices in spending inordinate amounts of time on here is perhaps a better question. But currently it's impossible to do otherwise.

Robert. :-)

As far as Sean T is concerned I think PB is actually the cause of his success. He learnt his craft here. I remember when he first came on here he could hardly spell. Under OGH's patient tutelage he moved from clauses, to sentences, then paragraphs and now whole books. It has been truly wonderful to witness his journey.

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

dr_spyn said:

"Turkey's state news agency Anadolu and the NTV news channel both report that 2,745 judges were fired across the country on Saturday.

The decision was taken by the body overseeing judges and prosecutors - the meeting was reportedly held to discuss disciplinary measures against those suspected of having links with alleged coup plotter Fetullah Gulen."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-36811357

Wasn't just a small faction of armed forces?

It may have been, but the government forces are using the opportunity to round up other troublesome (to them) individuals and groups.

The state-within-a-state ("deep state") idea has a long history within Turkey (no wonder given the number of coups they have had), and is either real, non-existent, or vastly exaggerated to be used as a bogeyman by different groups.

An example is the Ergenekon conspiracy, which led to hundreds of people being arrested in 2011. This might have been a join Erdogan - Gulen operation. When they had a falling out a couple of years later and Gulen's people allegedly arrested lots of Erdogan's, suddenly the 2011 plotters were mostly acquitted and the judges who arrested them (and who had just arrested Erdogan's people) were charged!

Turkish politics makes ours look positive uneventful.

My family are safe for the moment. Sadly I can only say for the moment ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergenekon_(allegation)

Do you think the coup may have been a sham?

I won't pretend to know that, but my *impression* is no.

I've pointed out in the past that Erdogan had learnt lessons from previous Turkish coups and had put in place mechanisms to prevent them or reduce their effect. This culminated in the 2011 mess.

At this point, I think he's just taking advantage of that mess to consolidate his power and throw out his perceived opponents; e.g. Gulen's supporters. The idea that 3,000-odd judges were in league with the military plotters is ridiculous.

AnneJGP said:

Good afternoon, everybody.

Almost 2 hours and only a single Vanilla page on this thread. Is everyone trying to catch up with the rest of their lives after the recent excitements?

It is warm (too warm!) and sunny here. Just taking a very brief break from the day star . We've pretty much beaten the hot topics to death.

I'm not anticipating much excitement for a while, and it looks like a mini-heatwave on the way. Let's enjoy it!

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought the claim they were fake guns had been denied by the police now.

I can't find any confirmation either way. Some still say they were fake, others speculating not.

One theory: ISIS gave him a job lot, and fobbed him off with some crap amidst the real stuff? So they weren't fake, just old and malfunctioning?

There was an interesting tit bit from panorama documentary over Paris, that basically Isis have a weapons delivery network where recruits can order & a car will be left loaded with hardware. That has happened not just in Paris incident but in other foiled attacks.

The media have been pushing the mental illness / nothing to lose petty criminal who radicalised himself over the past few weeks & acted alone. The 100k euro claim doesn't really fit that narrative.

No, I agree, this *lone nutter* stuff is bollocks.

Another detail: Bouhlel got his HGV licence a year ago. That's kind of an odd thing to do, if you're a dope smoking ne'er do well. He did work as a delivery van driver, but HGV?

He made sure to hire the heaviest possible vehicle. Showing no signs of frothing madness.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693329/He-wanted-biggest-powerful-vehicle-Truck-terrorist-ordered-massive-19-tonne-lorry-create-maximum-number-victims-says-garage-boss.html

I reckon this was a very carefully planned attack, dating back months, and almost certainly involving others - possibly ISIS themselves.

I'm sure Louise Mensch will clarify before long.

Mr. Jessop, ironic that a coup was foiled and the immediate result is to weaken the democracy, such as it is, of Turkey.

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I thought the claim they were fake guns had been denied by the police now.

I can't find any confirmation either way. Some still say they were fake, others speculating not.

One theory: ISIS gave him a job lot, and fobbed him off with some crap amidst the real stuff? So they weren't fake, just old and malfunctioning?

There was an interesting tit bit from panorama documentary over Paris, that basically Isis have a weapons delivery network where recruits can order & a car will be left loaded with hardware. That has happened not just in Paris incident but in other foiled attacks.

The media have been pushing the mental illness / nothing to lose petty criminal who radicalised himself over the past few weeks & acted alone. The 100k euro claim doesn't really fit that narrative.

No, I agree, this *lone nutter* stuff is bollocks.

Another detail: Bouhlel got his HGV licence a year ago. That's kind of an odd thing to do, if you're a dope smoking ne'er do well. He did work as a delivery van driver, but HGV?

He made sure to hire the heaviest possible vehicle. Showing no signs of frothing madness.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693329/He-wanted-biggest-powerful-vehicle-Truck-terrorist-ordered-massive-19-tonne-lorry-create-maximum-number-victims-says-garage-boss.html

I reckon this was a very carefully planned attack, dating back months, and almost certainly involving others - possibly ISIS themselves.

I'm sure Louise Mensch will clarify before long.

I'm afraid Louise is too busy with Tony Blackburn, just for now.

SeanT said:

stjohn said:

Margaret Thatcher is reputed to have said, "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure."

How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."

Discuss.

Without being uncharacteristically too full of myself, *ahem*, if I am a failure I'd be curious to see what counts as success. You set a high bar.

Indeed I'd say the level of success on pb, in many different fields, from law to politics to business, is much higher than in the general population.

Indeed, I come here to hang out with the rich and beautiful of PB. We even have Charles to bring a touch of the gentry to the place *doffs cap*.

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

I suspect there is less luck at play here than you'd imagine. Just because the new PM wasn't obviously playing the game doesn't mean she wasn't. I don't believe you become PM by chance. I think Theresa May knew what she was doing, and essentially outmanoeuvred her opponents. I think Gove did what he did because the contest was already moving from stop Boris to stop May. You have to remember that May knows the Conservative party and is excessively thorough.

It was obvious from the moment Cameron announced his resignation that the final two would be her and Boris. I think Gove thought May would play serious vs shallow on Boris and it would likely work, something she wouldn't be able to do with him as much. I don't think he anticipated it would push Boris out of the race but that it would complicate May's path to the final two. I think he figured Boris was obsessed enough to plough on regardless.

May never looked like she was fighting because she'd prepared and had worked out how to game the election. First get to the final two then fight the election from there. I think she ended up with 50 more votes than she expected in R1 because everyone else were playing catch up and making a horlicks of it. We will have to wait a while for the full inside story of this leadership election but I don't think Theresa May is where she is by mere luck. I think her erstwhile opponents found out rather too late that she is even more formidable than her reputation and plays the game less obviously but more successfully.

Mr. Jim, I agree TM is not our Prime Minister by luck or chance. Furthermore, I don't believe her radical reshaping of HMG was dreamed up in a couple of days and by herself alone. The speed and precision of her work since Wednesday looks to me like a plan being put into action.

Good for her. She had a plan, she implemented it. We must all hope it works out for the good of us all.

What I do not believe is that she has come up with this plan by herself. It is too big, too organised, too well thought through to be the work of one person. What I would very much like to know are who are TM's confidants and advisors.

I think she had a plan, but had no way of knowing if it would succeed or not. Her plan depended on her rivals destroying each other, before she moved in to finish them off.

It's rather like the chief of police or army chief in a Middle Eastern country, who remains on good terms with the rival dynasts as they fight each other, before then seizing power and turning on the survivors.

The term Magnificent Bastard sums her up.

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

I suspect there is less luck at play here than you'd imagine. Just because the new PM wasn't obviously playing the game doesn't mean she wasn't. I don't believe you become PM by chance. I think Theresa May knew what she was doing, and essentially outmanoeuvred her opponents. I think Gove did what he did because the contest was already moving from stop Boris to stop May. You have to remember that May knows the Conservative party and is excessively thorough.

It was obvious from the moment Cameron announced his resignation that the final two would be her and Boris. I think Gove thought May would play serious vs shallow on Boris and it would likely work, something she wouldn't be able to do with him as much. I don't think he anticipated it would push Boris out of the race but that it would complicate May's path to the final two. I think he figured Boris was obsessed enough to plough on regardless.

May never looked like she was fighting because she'd prepared and had worked out how to game the election. First get to the final two then fight the election from there. I think she ended up with 50 more votes than she expected in R1 because everyone else were playing catch up and making a horlicks of it. We will have to wait a while for the full inside story of this leadership election but I don't think Theresa May is where she is by mere luck. I think her erstwhile opponents found out rather too late that she is even more formidable than her reputation and plays the game less obviously but more successfully.

Mr. Jim, I agree TM is not our Prime Minister by luck or chance. Furthermore, I don't believe her radical reshaping of HMG was dreamed up in a couple of days and by herself alone. The speed and precision of her work since Wednesday looks to me like a plan being put into action.

Good for her. She had a plan, she implemented it. We must all hope it works out for the good of us all.

What I do not believe is that she has come up with this plan by herself. It is too big, too organised, too well thought through to be the work of one person. What I would very much like to know are who are TM's confidants and advisors.

I think she had a plan, but had no way of knowing if it would succeed or not. Her plan depended on her rivals destroying each other, before she moved in to finish them off.

It's rather like the chief of police or army chief in a Middle Eastern country, who remains on good terms with the rival dynasts as they fight each other, before then seizing power and turning on the survivors.

Could be, Mr F, could well be. However my question stands who are her confidants and advisors?

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Could be, Mr F, could well be. However my question stands who are her confidants and advisors?

The Spectator did a piece on this. Nick Timothy is a name that crops up a lot.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/mays-man-influence/

Thank you for that, Mr Glenn. If the argument is accurate (and I have quite a lot time for its author) I am not sure whether to be concerned or reassured. I had hoped that there would be someone or some people with a bit more bottom behind the lady.

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

I suspect there is less luck at play here than you'd imagine. Just because the new PM wasn't obviously playing the game doesn't mean she wasn't. I don't believe you become PM by chance. I think Theresa May knew what she was doing, and essentially outmanoeuvred her opponents. I think Gove did what he did because the contest was already moving from stop Boris to stop May. You have to remember that May knows the Conservative party and is excessively thorough.

It was obvious from the moment Cameron announced his resignation that the final two would be her and Boris. I think Gove thought May would play serious vs shallow on Boris and it would likely work, something she wouldn't be able to do with him as much. I don't think he anticipated it would push Boris out of the race but that it would complicate May's path to the final two. I think he figured Boris was obsessed enough to plough on regardless.

Mr. Jim, I agree TM is not our Prime Minister by luck or chance. Furthermore, I don't believe her radical reshaping of HMG was dreamed up in a couple of days and by herself alone. The speed and precision of her work since Wednesday looks to me like a plan being put into action.

Good for her. She had a plan, she implemented it. We must all hope it works out for the good of us all.

What I do not believe is that she has come up with this plan by herself. It is too big, too organised, too well thought through to be the work of one person. What I would very much like to know are who are TM's confidants and advisors.

I think she had a plan, but had no way of knowing if it would succeed or not. Her plan depended on her rivals destroying each other, before she moved in to finish them off.

It's rather like the chief of police or army chief in a Middle Eastern country, who remains on good terms with the rival dynasts as they fight each other, before then seizing power and turning on the survivors.

The term Magnificent Bastard sums her up.

I'm sure her whole approach will be studied in depth by future wannabe candidates. As someone who bet on her I always felt that she was being underestimated by more showy people and, fatally for them, understood the basic rules of Tory elections: the favourite never seems to win and he who wields the knife is done for.

Having said that I think Leadsom may well have beaten her because of the other rule (membership only rule) - you have to be a eurosceptic.

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

HurstLlama said:

ToryJim said:

I suspect there is less luck at play here than you'd imagine. Just because the new PM wasn't obviously playing the game doesn't mean she wasn't. I don't believe you become PM by chance. I think Theresa May knew what she was doing, and essentially outmanoeuvred her opponents. I think Gove did what he did because the contest was already moving from stop Boris to stop May. You have to remember that May knows the Conservative party and is excessively thorough.

It was obvious from the moment Cameron announced his resignation that the final two would be her and Boris. I think Gove thought May would play serious vs shallow on Boris and it would likely work, something she wouldn't be able to do with him as much. I don't think he anticipated it would push Boris out of the race but that it would complicate May's path to the final two. I think he figured Boris was obsessed enough to plough on regardless.

Mr. Jim, I agree TM is not our Prime Minister by luck or chance. Furthermore, I don't believe her radical reshaping of HMG was dreamed up in a couple of days and by herself alone. The speed and precision of her work since Wednesday looks to me like a plan being put into action.

Good for her. She had a plan, she implemented it. We must all hope it works out for the good of us all.

What I do not believe is that she has come up with this plan by herself. It is too big, too organised, too well thought through to be the work of one person. What I would very much like to know are who are TM's confidants and advisors.

I think she had a plan, but had no way of knowing if it would succeed or not. Her plan depended on her rivals destroying each other, before she moved in to finish them off.

It's rather like the chief of police or army chief in a Middle Eastern country, who remains on good terms with the rival dynasts as they fight each other, before then seizing power and turning on the survivors.

The term Magnificent Bastard sums her up.

I'm sure her whole approach will be studied in depth by future wannabe candidates. As someone who bet on her I always felt that she was being underestimated by more showy people and, fatally for them, understood the basic rules of Tory elections: the favourite never seems to win and he who wields the knife is done for.

Having said that I think Leadsom may well have beaten her because of the other rule (membership only rule) - you have to be a eurosceptic.

The knife-wielder has to be someone who's overambitious, or ideologically committed, or possesses a personal grudge. As you say, the knife wielder never wins.

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)

Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?

edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/

The Labour Party wants to know what you have to do to get a front page news story nowadays?

IanB2 said:

The Labour Party wants to know what you have to do to get a front page news story nowadays?

Has Owen Jones launched his campaign yet ?

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

The Labour Party wants to know what you have to do to get a front page news story nowadays?

Has Owen Jones launched his campaign yet ?

*cough* Smith *cough*

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

HurstLlama said:

JohnO said:

williamglenn said:

HurstLlama said:

Could be, Mr F, could well be. However my question stands who are her confidants and advisors?

The Spectator did a piece on this. Nick Timothy is a name that crops up a lot.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/mays-man-influence/

However, she does not appear to have a devoted Parliamentary coterie around her, accentuated by consciously eschewing the Commons 'club'. And that is also reflected in her appointments: a number of her leading campaign managers, notably Chris Grayling and Brandon Lewis, must be disappointed in their less than stellar Departments, with the latter still outside the top team.

Quite so, Mr. O. I wish the lady well, I might even vote the party that she leads (something I could never do under her predecessor). However, without her Keith Joseph or Willy Whitelaw she does look a very lonely figure in the Commons. It could be I am worrying needlessly, but maybe not.

Yes. Won't matter for a few months at least (Tories polling well, Labour self immolating), possibly even longer, but she will need those reserves of good will among colleagues when the inevitable turn of political fortunes takes place. In the absence of a pretorian guard to protect her back through thick and thin, it's not terribly sensible to be gratuitously making enemies. But you're right: we'll have to wait and see what unfolds.

Mr. Llama, they'll linger, united by discontent, at least for a time.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

He's a fool if he develops a faction at this point.

If he really wants to come back (which I have my doubts about - if you have been Chancellor in your 40s you could go and do a lot of more interesting things than hang around on the backbenchs for a decade waiting for a chance that might never come) then he would do well to be conspicuously loyal right now

Manx missile wins again... he is back to the form where when he puts the hammer down nobody can match him.

From the man who first reported the ex industrial Labour heartlands were swinging heavily for Leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

The Labour Party wants to know what you have to do to get a front page news story nowadays?

Has Owen Jones launched his campaign yet ?

Joining Maria Eagle?