politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the eligibility rules for Labour’s election could help

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Pulpstar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Also, what of the mischievous Three Pounders? I suspect their numbers have been exaggerated, but they may well conclude that they've had their fun and having an actual Opposition is a good thing.

I think the number of "mischievous £3" was actually quite low.

Mischievous £3 has become a cheeky £25. Inflation is running out of control after Brexit.

Except Uncle Len has a cheeky £2 loophole.

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone recall Gordon's last PMQs/final bow?

Did he get applause like Tony?

I only remember his walk away from Downing St with his family.

IanB2 said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

PlatoSaid said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

asjohnstone said:

rkrkrk said:

asjohnstone said:

Pulpstar said:

Owen Smith is odds on. That simply must be wrong.

It's leader after Corbyn though. I think the market is assuming that Jezza will defeat Eagle

Won't Owen Smith and Eagle run in the same leadership election?

I've also had a nibble on Rachel Reeves at 220-1 as a long-term prospect.

Ray

I don't think so; It's now or never for Eagle in my opinion, but Smith can run again and win in the future

The party may not hold together long enough for Smith to do so.

Assuming Labour follows a similar timetable to last summer - the result will be announced around conference.

Are you in favour of a single challenger or a choice?

I think there's some merit in what Margaret Hodge said on the Radio this morning - of those that are nominated, the PLP has a vote which is effectively their assessment of who is best placed and there is heavy pressure on all other declared candidates to then stand down and back them, possibly with people withdrawing their nominations to make it happen.

You'd think she has been looking at the Tory rules recently!

PlatoSaid said:

kle4 said:

KentRising said:

Cameron's last full day as Pm included visiting one of the 300 free schools his government created. Apparently he was to spend the next 2 months before bowing out talking about "life chances" and publishing a paper on it. Telegraph: "It meant more to him than Europe ever did."

Why doesn't May make Dave Education Secretary?

Or am I being silly?

I think Cameron would make a good cabinet member. But despite his talk of serving I imagine Cameron will be raking it easy until a GE is called and won't stand for reelection, so not looking for such responsibility, plus May will probably not want to offer him a Rome even if he were willing, clean break and all that.

I gather he wants to set up a Big Society foundation or some-such. His advisers were tasked with this until his G20 swan song was cut short.

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Maybe the Trots will not be able to vote for Corbyn via the affiliates:
https://twitter.com/richardbourne49/status/753129443548393472

Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone recall Gordon's last PMQs/final bow?

Did he get applause like Tony?

I only remember his walk away from Downing St with his family.

If Cameron does get applause, I wonder if the vestigial tail of the LibDems will join in?

bigjohnowls said:

Except Uncle Len has a cheeky £2 loophole.

SouthamObserver said:

The Corbyn cult does not do personal abuse. This is the rally the Great Leader spoke at last night:
https://twitter.com/gentlerpolitics/status/753125457881694209

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm torn

My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'

My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'

Toms said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm torn

My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'

My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'

You seem to be a good hearted Tory. My advice (take it or leave it) is to leave it to those who are less so.

JonCisBack said:

Well this post has added nothing. i will stop now

MarqueeMark said:

PlatoSaid said:

Does anyone recall Gordon's last PMQs/final bow?

Did he get applause like Tony?

I only remember his walk away from Downing St with his family.

If Cameron does get applause, I wonder if the vestigial tail of the LibDems will join in?

ydoethur said:

The reality is that while Smith is a far better candidate than Jez or Eagle he is not good enough to justify the upheaval. He will still be hammered by a party led by May.

As I said yesterday, the best chance for Labour to avoid catastrophe is for Cruddas to stand. But it doesn't seem likely he will.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm torn

My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'

My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

Why is everyone assuming Smith and Eagle are fishing in the same pool?

If this were FPTP, Smith's candidacy would be a serious blow to Corbyn. Their policy positions are similar but Smith is younger, saner, more intelligent and a better speaker. Also, he's a potential unifying candidate as a left winger who wants power.

As it isn't, I'd expect a majority of Smith's 2nd preferences going to Corbyn, not Eagle, if he is knocked out early. His entry makes very little difference to the potential outcome.

ydoethur said:

Why is everyone assuming Smith and Eagle are fishing in the same pool?

If this were FPTP, Smith's candidacy would be a serious blow to Corbyn. Their policy positions are similar but Smith is younger, saner, more intelligent and a better speaker. Also, he's a potential unifying candidate as a left winger who wants power.

As it isn't, I'd expect a majority of Smith's 2nd preferences going to Corbyn, not Eagle, if he is knocked out early. His entry makes very little difference to the potential outcome.

If Smith knocks out Eagle though he can win

It remains the case, however, that a greater proportion of otherwise Argclu voters would vote for Smith in a straight contest, if she didn't stand, than would transfer to him from her if there are multiple candidates.

eek said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm torn

My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'

My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'

Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.

I did think do I spend my £25 on voting for the none Corbyn candidate. Then thought about how much popcorn I will need for the election and decided the money could be better spent...

Also I think its just a referendum. Do labour members want to govern again. The end result is either a sensible Labour leader or a new party made up of the majority of what was the PLP...

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm torn

My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'

My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'

Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.

I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms Woolie, sorry. What's nepharia?

PlatoSaid said:

dyedwoolie said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie, welcome back

It's ms Woolie now MD. Thanks, just a flying visit whilst things are exciting before I'm headed back to the wilderness to court conspiracy and nepharia

Welcome to the world of girl power in that case

rcs1000 said:

Eeeek

rcs1000 said:

Eeeek

Morris_Dancer said:

Ms Woolie, ah, nefarious*.

You aren't secretly a Corbynista, are you?

Mr. 1000, that's a stark graph.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Maybe the Trots will not be able to vote for Corbyn via the affiliates:
https://twitter.com/richardbourne49/status/753129443548393472

Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.

Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.

But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.

Innocent_Abroad said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Maybe the Trots will not be able to vote for Corbyn via the affiliates:
https://twitter.com/richardbourne49/status/753129443548393472

Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.

Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.

But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.

And JC himself decided for careerist reasons to stay out of his preferred Trotskyist groupuscule (the IMG) just as he chose to plough his "A" levels in order to pretend to be a horny-handed son of toil. The word you want to describe people like your member for 50 years is "dupe".

Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

Eeeek

Presumably that was done late March/early April. If so, how does it compare with reality so far?

Jobabob said:

@JackW

Any word from @RodCrosby regarding emails?

Ipsos = Chortle.

agingjb said:

Since someone mentioned AV, so just for fun:

The Extended Alternative Voting system requires voters to place outcomes in order of preference. Outcomes are the election of a candidate or the exclusion of a candidate.
The election proceeds by looking at first preferences so that, for each candidate there will be a score – votes for minus votes against. The candidate with lowest score, which will in all probability be negative, is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated according to the outcomes they give as second preferences. This process continues until one candidate emerges.

This system reflects the reality of preference and opinion when selecting an individual. But then, whatever its merits or flaws, is there any electorate capable of understanding it?

PlatoSaid said:

JonnyJimmy said:

I'm pretty sure that John McDonnell tried to blame the brick through Eagle's window on Brexit in his R4 interview this morning. When asked about it specifically he brushed it away as the kind of thing that's been happening since since the referendum. Does he really think that line's plausible?

He does *sound* and *look* plausible though. If you aren't paying close attention - it's all very sensible presentationally.

I think he's dangerous for exactly this reason. If he was Labour leader - I'd be concerned, not amused.

PlatoSaid said:

dyedwoolie said:

The question for UKIP must be can they resist their natural urge to try and split the Tory right away and instead grab the fallout from operation annoy Keir Hardies ghost.

The Tory Right have largely left, they've mopped up some Brexiteers now May is PM.

Woolfe isn't a disgruntled Tory like Farage - that's why I think he's got to nous to make it work.

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Monksfield said:

SouthamObserver said:

Maybe the Trots will not be able to vote for Corbyn via the affiliates:
https://twitter.com/richardbourne49/status/753129443548393472

Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.

Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.

But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.

And JC himself decided for careerist reasons to stay out of his preferred Trotskyist groupuscule (the IMG) just as he chose to plough his "A" levels in order to pretend to be a horny-handed son of toil. The word you want to describe people like your member for 50 years is "dupe".

Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.

Genuine “horny handed sons of toil”, by and large do NOT plough their A levels. They realise their importance.

Hence my use of the word "pretend"...