Also, what of the mischievous Three Pounders? I suspect their numbers have been exaggerated, but they may well conclude that they've had their fun and having an actual Opposition is a good thing.
I think the number of "mischievous £3" was actually quite low.
Mischievous £3 has become a cheeky £25. Inflation is running out of control after Brexit.
And Angela Eagle went to the same Oxford college as Blair (and me :-) ) Bit surprised the dog-on-string Momentum types haven;t made more of that
My wife heard her speak back at some college reunion women's dinner, said she was quite good on the subject of women achieving more in society but didn't like her accent...
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
The reality is that while Smith is a far better candidate than Jez or Eagle he is not good enough to justify the upheaval. He will still be hammered by a party led by May.
As I said yesterday, the best chance for Labour to avoid catastrophe is for Cruddas to stand. But it doesn't seem likely he will.
Have any of the recent Corbynistas noticed that they have been disenfranchised yet?
For the truly far left, I should think think they'd be fine with that - communists and others of that ilk are fine doing things for the people without the people being freely asked if they want that, so as long as the right people lead, the right aristocracy, it's good. For the more moderate centre lefty types made passionate by Corbyn, for they do exist, I'm sure they'll be disappointed but if Corbyn looks like winning its ok.
It's leader after Corbyn though. I think the market is assuming that Jezza will defeat Eagle
Won't Owen Smith and Eagle run in the same leadership election?
I've also had a nibble on Rachel Reeves at 220-1 as a long-term prospect.
Ray
I don't think so; It's now or never for Eagle in my opinion, but Smith can run again and win in the future
The party may not hold together long enough for Smith to do so.
Assuming Labour follows a similar timetable to last summer - the result will be announced around conference.
Are you in favour of a single challenger or a choice?
I think there's some merit in what Margaret Hodge said on the Radio this morning - of those that are nominated, the PLP has a vote which is effectively their assessment of who is best placed and there is heavy pressure on all other declared candidates to then stand down and back them, possibly with people withdrawing their nominations to make it happen.
You'd think she has been looking at the Tory rules recently!
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 1h1 hour ago Some people a bit confused. Shortlist is what will be presented to the members. Will be either Corbyn/Smith or Corbyn/Eagle.
And Angela Eagle went to the same Oxford college as Blair (and me :-) ) Bit surprised the dog-on-string Momentum types haven;t made more of that
My wife heard her speak back at some college reunion women's dinner, said she was quite good on the subject of women achieving more in society but didn't like her accent...
Well this post has added nothing. i will stop now
My pointless trivia was seeing John Prescott deliver a witty and articulate speech at a memorial service for a friend of mine. He was nothing like his mumbling TV self.
Cameron's last full day as Pm included visiting one of the 300 free schools his government created. Apparently he was to spend the next 2 months before bowing out talking about "life chances" and publishing a paper on it. Telegraph: "It meant more to him than Europe ever did."
Why doesn't May make Dave Education Secretary?
Or am I being silly?
I think Cameron would make a good cabinet member. But despite his talk of serving I imagine Cameron will be raking it easy until a GE is called and won't stand for reelection, so not looking for such responsibility, plus May will probably not want to offer him a Rome even if he were willing, clean break and all that.
I gather he wants to set up a Big Society foundation or some-such. His advisers were tasked with this until his G20 swan song was cut short.
There were reports of him spending most of the day playing video games when he was PM. It seems unlikely he'll do much more than that now he's not PM.
"In an appeal to women to support separation, the SNP MSP compared the UK to a marriage where the English husband refuses to give his Scottish wife control over their finances for fear she would “squander” it.
“How selfish and greedy is she to even suggest keeping it to herself! Here’s the deal. She hands over all her assets to him and he will give her a handout in return,” Miss McAlpine wrote.
“But if she gets uppity, mind, her money will be cut. She should remember how lucky she is. Eventually she recognises the relationship for what it is – an abuse of power.”
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
This is the key of course. Corbyn won among nit just 3 quidders last time, and how many of the old core still support him. Apparently plenty.
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Trotskyites do not believe in Parliamentary democracy as the route to taking power. Neither does Jeremy Corbyn. Those that vote for him via supposed loopholes clearly have no interest in the Labour party. They are Trots. Many full members back him too. I'd put them in a different category that is more about delusion.
The reality is that while Smith is a far better candidate than Jez or Eagle he is not good enough to justify the upheaval. He will still be hammered by a party led by May.
As I said yesterday, the best chance for Labour to avoid catastrophe is for Cruddas to stand. But it doesn't seem likely he will.
Ditto Dugher. Both good thinkers - but don't want the limelight job.
I only remember his walk away from Downing St with his family.
If Cameron does get applause, I wonder if the vestigial tail of the LibDems will join in?
They will burst into wild cheers that he's going at last and won't wipe them out completely. And nobody will hear them because there aren't enough of them...
Well, if he thinks they should be in the cabinet he's at least saying they must have good qualities too.
Honestly I wonder if anyone, faced with accusations they are a Tory and looking at where the party positions are and are heading, has considered crossing the floor nd accepting the accusation. It just seems improbable, as even the most virulent anti Corbyn's seem angry at the failure to take on the Tories, and are still tribally loyal, labour us their identity. That quite apart from worrying if they could ever be elected as a Tory in their area or a new one.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
You seem to be a good hearted Tory. My advice (take it or leave it) is to let to those who are less so to mess with it.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
You seem to be a good hearted Tory. My advice (take it or leave it) is to leave it to those who are less so.
Corbyn is a Trot. You don't need to argue about what kind of Trot. Many of his followers are not and will eventually baulk at his "Internationalist" views. I know a few Corbynistas who are patriotic - an anathema to true Trots. And when the conversation shifts from economics and the NHS, they are annoyed by his views. More Leave voters than Remainers.
That's why I've always thought that a left-wing on economics Ukip would hoover up these votes.
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Not all Corbyn supporters are Trots but all Trots support Corbyn.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I did think do I spend my £25 on voting for the none Corbyn candidate. Then thought about how much popcorn I will need for the election and decided the money could be better spent...
Also I think its just a referendum. Do labour members want to govern again. The end result is either a sensible Labour leader or a new party made up of the majority of what was the PLP...
The reality is that while Smith is a far better candidate than Jez or Eagle he is not good enough to justify the upheaval. He will still be hammered by a party led by May.
As I said yesterday, the best chance for Labour to avoid catastrophe is for Cruddas to stand. But it doesn't seem likely he will.
Not even listed on BF. Crudas seems far too bright to want to take this clusterf**** on.
I suspect the reaction of Tory MPs at PMQs will be like the PMQs on the day Thatcher announced she wasn't standing in the second ballot.
Tory MPs standing up, and waving their order papers when Thatcher enters the chamber, and Oppositions MPs mocking the Tories for getting rid of their leader
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
I only remember his walk away from Downing St with his family.
If Cameron does get applause, I wonder if the vestigial tail of the LibDems will join in?
They will burst into wild cheers that he's going at last and won't wipe them out completely. And nobody will hear them because there aren't enough of them...
But louder than Carswell, who will also be cheering as thanks for keeping Farage out of the Commons.
Why is everyone assuming Smith and Eagle are fishing in the same pool?
If this were FPTP, Smith's candidacy would be a serious blow to Corbyn. Their policy positions are similar but Smith is younger, saner, more intelligent and a better speaker. Also, he's a potential unifying candidate as a left winger who wants power.
As it isn't, I'd expect a majority of Smith's 2nd preferences going to Corbyn, not Eagle, if he is knocked out early. His entry makes very little difference to the potential outcome.
Why is everyone assuming Smith and Eagle are fishing in the same pool?
If this were FPTP, Smith's candidacy would be a serious blow to Corbyn. Their policy positions are similar but Smith is younger, saner, more intelligent and a better speaker. Also, he's a potential unifying candidate as a left winger who wants power.
As it isn't, I'd expect a majority of Smith's 2nd preferences going to Corbyn, not Eagle, if he is knocked out early. His entry makes very little difference to the potential outcome.
If Smith knocks out Eagle though he can win
It remains the case, however, that a greater proportion of otherwise Argclu voters would vote for Smith in a straight contest, if she didn't stand, than would transfer to him from her if there are multiple candidates.
If say the first round is Corbyn 45% Smith 30% Eagle 25% then I can see Smith beating Corbyn 52% 48% or so in the final round, Eagle preferences would go strongly to Smith
Corbyn is a Trot. You don't need to argue about what kind of Trot. Many of his followers are not and will eventually baulk at his "Internationalist" views. I know a few Corbynistas who are patriotic - an anathema to true Trots. And when the conversation shifts from economics and the NHS, they are annoyed by his views. More Leave voters than Remainers.
That's why I've always thought that a left-wing on economics Ukip would hoover up these votes.
I can't speak for London, though.
Just speaking of my experience of Brexit campaigning, there's so much crossover between Kipper and a large section of Labour WC voters. It's way bigger than immigration. It's about national pride, looking after the little people, family life, defending our nation, homes/health/schooling to get on in life.
Brendan Chilcot who chaired LabourLeave said it all. So did Kate Hoey and John Mann. It's a values thing.
Morning all! Well, rather messy isn't it? Labour have contrived to royally screw themselves over this. Frankly this could all have waited until 2018/19, there was never any danger of a snap election after the out vote, by which time JC would have either embedded and grown or lost his base support and been vulnerable. Deselections next, especially if this ridiculous plan to stand 'again and again' is brought to fruition. Shame, there's nobody remotely progressive to challenge the gradual decline into corporatist hell.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I did think do I spend my £25 on voting for the none Corbyn candidate. Then thought about how much popcorn I will need for the election and decided the money could be better spent...
Also I think its just a referendum. Do labour members want to govern again. The end result is either a sensible Labour leader or a new party made up of the majority of what was the PLP...
Arguably, it is time for a realignment and a new party which supports PR and other reforms which Labour will never get around to doing.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.
Police commissioners? And you'd have the added bonus of taking part in an election in which the winner has some power.
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.
You are obsessed. Move to London and vote for mayor.
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
It's ms Woolie now MD. Thanks, just a flying visit whilst things are exciting before I'm headed back to the wilderness to court conspiracy and nepharia
It's ms Woolie now MD. Thanks, just a flying visit whilst things are exciting before I'm headed back to the wilderness to court conspiracy and nepharia
Corbyn is a Trot. You don't need to argue about what kind of Trot. Many of his followers are not and will eventually baulk at his "Internationalist" views. I know a few Corbynistas who are patriotic - an anathema to true Trots. And when the conversation shifts from economics and the NHS, they are annoyed by his views. More Leave voters than Remainers.
That's why I've always thought that a left-wing on economics Ukip would hoover up these votes.
I can't speak for London, though.
Just speaking of my experience of Brexit campaigning, there's so much crossover between Kipper and a large section of Labour WC voters. It's way bigger than immigration. It's about national pride, looking after the little people, family life, defending our nation, homes/health/schooling to get on in life.
Brendan Chilcot who chaired LabourLeave said it all. So did Kate Hoey and John Mann. It's a values thing.
Crudas has been banging on about this stuff for years. Not that Ed M ever wanted to listen.
Labour need a non-metropolitan leader by looks of things. At least Brown came with all his Scottish presbyterian background.
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
Anyone who uses an affiliate loophole to vote for Corbyn is a Trot or a Tory with no interest in the Labour party except to destroy it as a Parliamentary party.
It's ms Woolie now MD. Thanks, just a flying visit whilst things are exciting before I'm headed back to the wilderness to court conspiracy and nepharia
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.
You are obsessed. Move to London and vote for mayor.
But he might be a purist and rightly object that Supplementary Vote is not Alternative Vote?
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.
You are obsessed. Move to London and vote for mayor.
But he might be a purist and rightly object that Supplementary Vote is not Alternative Vote?
I wouldn't say that! I have completely abandoned the concept of trickle down economics though. The wealthy cannot IMO be trusted with wealth. Globalisation is rather crap etc
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
Stick to the latter. It seems wrong to me to sign up as a supporter of another party when you really aren't. But I'm old fashioned and stuck in the late 20th century.
I understand that, I suppose the only way I can justify it is that I want to take vote in an election conducted under AV.
You are obsessed. Move to London and vote for mayor.
But he might be a purist and rightly object that Supplementary Vote is not Alternative Vote?
A Jezza-led Labour party will be murdered in a GE because the Establishment will bring all the heavy guns to bear. The BBC, in the interests of a fair hearing will illuminate his less-publicised views, and the media in general will have a feast of 'unfortunate' quotes.
He will try and switch the subject to equality and the NHS, and get irritated when they don't pander to him. Being a true believer, he is a mardy arse when contradicted. Patriotism = Fascism. The bulk of the Labour MPs know this and are terrified of having to defend the indefensible.
They are doomed. Militant never went away, you know.
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
And JC himself decided for careerist reasons to stay out of his preferred Trotskyist groupuscule (the IMG) just as he chose to plough his "A" levels in order to pretend to be a horny-handed son of toil. The word you want to describe people like your member for 50 years is "dupe".
Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.
A Jezza-led Labour party will be murdered in a GE because the Establishment will bring all the heavy guns to bear. The BBC, in the interests of a fair hearing will illuminate his less-publicised views, and the media in general will have a feast of 'unfortunate' quotes.
He will try and switch the subject to equality and the NHS, and get irritated when they don't pander to him. Being a true believer, he is a mardy arse when contradicted. Patriotism = Fascism. The bulk of the Labour MPs know this and are terrified of having to defend the indefensible.
They are doomed. Militant never went away, you know.
I still haven't quite recovered from the Panorama hatchet job on him last year. It was brutal stuff.
The BBC/media establishment are New Labour and can't stand Corbyn bar the entertainment value of placard waving footage.
It's almost like a bomb's gone off under the economy isn't it?
It is. And very much like 2007/8 when the whole thing was imploding it doesn't 'feel' different. Yet. Give it 6 months and see how this Christmas turns out..........
I'm pretty sure that John McDonnell tried to blame the brick through Eagle's window on Brexit in his R4 interview this morning. When asked about it specifically he brushed it away as the kind of thing that's been happening since since the referendum. Does he really think that line's plausible?
Miss Plato, ironically, if Labour sink due to Corbyn one of the prime beneficiaries may well be UKIP, which is hardly a typical metropolitan's cup of tea.
I'm pretty sure that John McDonnell tried to blame the brick through Eagle's window on Brexit in his R4 interview this morning. When asked about it specifically he brushed it away as the kind of thing that's been happening since since the referendum. Does he really think that line's plausible?
It's nit so much what's believable as team JC can barely contain their anger right now and disdain.
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
And JC himself decided for careerist reasons to stay out of his preferred Trotskyist groupuscule (the IMG) just as he chose to plough his "A" levels in order to pretend to be a horny-handed son of toil. The word you want to describe people like your member for 50 years is "dupe".
Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.
Genuine “horny handed sons of toil”, by and large do NOT plough their A levels. They realise their importance.
The question for UKIP must be can they resist their natural urge to try and split the Tory right away and instead grab the fallout from operation annoy Keir Hardies ghost.
The Extended Alternative Voting system requires voters to place outcomes in order of preference. Outcomes are the election of a candidate or the exclusion of a candidate. The election proceeds by looking at first preferences so that, for each candidate there will be a score – votes for minus votes against. The candidate with lowest score, which will in all probability be negative, is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated according to the outcomes they give as second preferences. This process continues until one candidate emerges.
This system reflects the reality of preference and opinion when selecting an individual. But then, whatever its merits or flaws, is there any electorate capable of understanding it?
I'm pretty sure that John McDonnell tried to blame the brick through Eagle's window on Brexit in his R4 interview this morning. When asked about it specifically he brushed it away as the kind of thing that's been happening since since the referendum. Does he really think that line's plausible?
He does *sound* and *look* plausible though. If you aren't paying close attention - it's all very sensible presentationally.
I think he's dangerous for exactly this reason. If he was Labour leader - I'd be concerned, not amused.
The NEC voted to freeze the membership eligibility for the contest to January 12, ruling out at a stroke more than 130,000 new members. A short window for ‘registered supporters’, who paid a fee of £25, would open between 18-20 July.
Corbyn supporters countered with amendments of their own, proposing a June 24 cut-off date (the day after the Brexit vote) and a seven-day sign-up period for registered supporters. The plan to extend the sign-up period to a week was defeated by a show of hands with 16 votes to 10. The plan to change the freeze date to June 24 was tied, with 14 votes for and against, and as a result fell.
Miss Plato, ironically, if Labour sink due to Corbyn one of the prime beneficiaries may well be UKIP, which is hardly a typical metropolitan's cup of tea.
UKIP is a real wildcard right now. If they choose Stephen Woolfe/similar and Farage stays out of the way - they've real potential in some seats.
Incidentally, Farage is attending the RNC conference to talk about Brexit.
Rod and I were of the same view on the issue. Horrible for Clinton but the fallout was more difficult to predict.
IPSOS tend to show bigger Clinton leads. Better Florida polls for Trump yesterday but all came from pollsters showing similar leads previously and with indifferent 538 ratings and some novel demographic crosstabs.
Presently Clinton holds solid leads in the swing states and a comfortable edge in national polling and it's hers to lose. I have the EC at 347/191
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
And JC himself decided for careerist reasons to stay out of his preferred Trotskyist groupuscule (the IMG) just as he chose to plough his "A" levels in order to pretend to be a horny-handed son of toil. The word you want to describe people like your member for 50 years is "dupe".
Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.
Genuine “horny handed sons of toil”, by and large do NOT plough their A levels. They realise their importance.
The Extended Alternative Voting system requires voters to place outcomes in order of preference. Outcomes are the election of a candidate or the exclusion of a candidate. The election proceeds by looking at first preferences so that, for each candidate there will be a score – votes for minus votes against. The candidate with lowest score, which will in all probability be negative, is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated according to the outcomes they give as second preferences. This process continues until one candidate emerges.
This system reflects the reality of preference and opinion when selecting an individual. But then, whatever its merits or flaws, is there any electorate capable of understanding it?
My experience in London is that even the Supplementary Vote foxes a lot of people. The common assumption is that the second vote is actually worth something, independent of what happens to the first one. People think it is like Eurovision - so the second vote gets you half a point, or something. Explaining that actually, if you are a Green or LibDem or UKIP, you are perfectly safe casting your first choice for your preferred party and then using your second to choose between the big parties, takes a lot of time, and often people don't really seem to believe it. I think the LibDems in particular suffer under the system, since they are so many of the big parties' voters' second choice, which has the effect of reducing the number of first choices they would get under FPTP.
The question for UKIP must be can they resist their natural urge to try and split the Tory right away and instead grab the fallout from operation annoy Keir Hardies ghost.
The Tory Right have largely left, they've mopped up some Brexiteers now May is PM.
Woolfe isn't a disgruntled Tory like Farage - that's why I think he's got to nous to make it work.
I'm pretty sure that John McDonnell tried to blame the brick through Eagle's window on Brexit in his R4 interview this morning. When asked about it specifically he brushed it away as the kind of thing that's been happening since since the referendum. Does he really think that line's plausible?
He does *sound* and *look* plausible though. If you aren't paying close attention - it's all very sensible presentationally.
I think he's dangerous for exactly this reason. If he was Labour leader - I'd be concerned, not amused.
He has a temper on him too, a strong debater could bully him in the HoC .
It's leader after Corbyn though. I think the market is assuming that Jezza will defeat Eagle
Won't Owen Smith and Eagle run in the same leadership election?
I've also had a nibble on Rachel Reeves at 220-1 as a long-term prospect.
Ray
I don't think so; It's now or never for Eagle in my opinion, but Smith can run again and win in the future
The party may not hold together long enough for Smith to do so.
Assuming Labour follows a similar timetable to last summer - the result will be announced around conference.
Are you in favour of a single challenger or a choice?
I think there's some merit in what Margaret Hodge said on the Radio this morning - of those that are nominated, the PLP has a vote which is effectively their assessment of who is best placed and there is heavy pressure on all other declared candidates to then stand down and back them, possibly with people withdrawing their nominations to make it happen.
You'd think she has been looking at the Tory rules recently!
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 1h1 hour ago Some people a bit confused. Shortlist is what will be presented to the members. Will be either Corbyn/Smith or Corbyn/Eagle.
Rubbish. All 3 will be on the ballot paper. Then, 1,2,3 preference will be put down by the members.
The question for UKIP must be can they resist their natural urge to try and split the Tory right away and instead grab the fallout from operation annoy Keir Hardies ghost.
The Tory Right have largely left, they've mopped up some Brexiteers now May is PM.
Woolfe isn't a disgruntled Tory like Farage - that's why I think he's got to nous to make it work.
The NEC voted to freeze the membership eligibility for the contest to January 12, ruling out at a stroke more than 130,000 new members. A short window for ‘registered supporters’, who paid a fee of £25, would open between 18-20 July.
Corbyn supporters countered with amendments of their own, proposing a June 24 cut-off date (the day after the Brexit vote) and a seven-day sign-up period for registered supporters. The plan to extend the sign-up period to a week was defeated by a show of hands with 16 votes to 10. The plan to change the freeze date to June 24 was tied, with 14 votes for and against, and as a result fell.
I think Corbyn could still lose because of this.
Jezza failed to attend the vote because he was celebrating downstairs ....
Do you seriously believe the Language of the Right wing press that all Corbyn backers are 'Trots'? I know many who would baulk at that, including my local councillor who has been a member for 50 years. They just want a Labour Party that adopts a distinct and more leftist agenda. You have a lot of interesting stuff to say but adopting the terms the Mail would use to stereotype your opposition doesn't do you any favours imho.
Of course not. Maybe its a reaction to being called a "Blairite" by those of the Corbyinites who are Trots (and some others) for opposing Corbyn. That rankles especially with those of us like Southam and I who left the party in disillusionment at the fag end of the New Labour years.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
And JC himself decided for careerist reasons to stay out of his preferred Trotskyist groupuscule (the IMG) just as he chose to plough his "A" levels in order to pretend to be a horny-handed son of toil. The word you want to describe people like your member for 50 years is "dupe".
Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.
Genuine “horny handed sons of toil”, by and large do NOT plough their A levels. They realise their importance.
Hence my use of the word "pretend"...
Indeed; he’s not even good at pretence, is he! Lack of understanding of the motives of those he tries to ape.
Comments
Clinton 48.3 .. Trump 42.2
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
And Angela Eagle went to the same Oxford college as Blair (and me :-) ) Bit surprised the dog-on-string Momentum types haven;t made more of that
My wife heard her speak back at some college reunion women's dinner, said she was quite good on the subject of women achieving more in society but didn't like her accent...
Well this post has added nothing. i will stop now
https://twitter.com/gentlerpolitics/status/753125457881694209
@MSmithsonPB: Let's not forget one great positive of Corbyn's leadership - he saved the party from. Andy Burnham
"Stand-up comedy event" indeed.
As I said yesterday, the best chance for Labour to avoid catastrophe is for Cruddas to stand. But it doesn't seem likely he will.
Some people a bit confused. Shortlist is what will be presented to the members. Will be either Corbyn/Smith or Corbyn/Eagle.
http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2016/07/theresa-may-the-merton-years.html
I left really rather impressed.
That is overegged imo. People are allowed to make analogies. The idea that analogies on the pet subjects of some lobbies are not allowed is silly.
If it affects his electorate, it tells us far more about the electorate.
Joan McAlpine MP made the same analogy to paint Scotland as some sort of victim in the SindyRef campaign:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9128442/Joan-McAlpine-compares-Union-to-abusive-marriage.html
"In an appeal to women to support separation, the SNP MSP compared the UK to a marriage where the English husband refuses to give his Scottish wife control over their finances for fear she would “squander” it.
“How selfish and greedy is she to even suggest keeping it to herself! Here’s the deal. She hands over all her assets to him and he will give her a handout in return,” Miss McAlpine wrote.
“But if she gets uppity, mind, her money will be cut. She should remember how lucky she is. Eventually she recognises the relationship for what it is – an abuse of power.”
My head says 'I need to join Labour and stop Corbyn being leader, the country needs a strong opposition, cf the Iraq War, and the farting commie's mistake on the tribunals bill'
My heart says 'As a Tory, I shouldn't get involved in another party's leadership contest'
More appendix right now...
Honestly I wonder if anyone, faced with accusations they are a Tory and looking at where the party positions are and are heading, has considered crossing the floor nd accepting the accusation. It just seems improbable, as even the most virulent anti Corbyn's seem angry at the failure to take on the Tories, and are still tribally loyal, labour us their identity. That quite apart from worrying if they could ever be elected as a Tory in their area or a new one.
Corbyn is a Trot. You don't need to argue about what kind of Trot. Many of his followers are not and will eventually baulk at his "Internationalist" views. I know a few Corbynistas who are patriotic - an anathema to true Trots. And when the conversation shifts from economics and the NHS, they are annoyed by his views. More Leave voters than Remainers.
That's why I've always thought that a left-wing on economics Ukip would hoover up these votes.
I can't speak for London, though.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html
It includes a very nice graph and the super-secret thingummyjig [of a betting nature] I mentioned before.
Also I think its just a referendum. Do labour members want to govern again. The end result is either a sensible Labour leader or a new party made up of the majority of what was the PLP...
Tory MPs standing up, and waving their order papers when Thatcher enters the chamber, and Oppositions MPs mocking the Tories for getting rid of their leader
Clinton 46 .. Trump 33
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0ZS2MO
Brendan Chilcot who chaired LabourLeave said it all. So did Kate Hoey and John Mann. It's a values thing.
Deselections next, especially if this ridiculous plan to stand 'again and again' is brought to fruition.
Shame, there's nobody remotely progressive to challenge the gradual decline into corporatist hell.
But those pulling Corbyn and Momentum's strings are by and large Trots in that they would be perfectly at home in a far left fringe party as many have been in the past.
Labour need a non-metropolitan leader by looks of things. At least Brown came with all his Scottish presbyterian background.
You aren't secretly a Corbynista, are you?
Mr. 1000, that's a stark graph.
Any word from @RodCrosby regarding emails?
Ipsos = Chortle.
He will try and switch the subject to equality and the NHS, and get irritated when they don't pander to him. Being a true believer, he is a mardy arse when contradicted. Patriotism = Fascism. The bulk of the Labour MPs know this and are terrified of having to defend the indefensible.
They are doomed. Militant never went away, you know.
Class-based politics are only possible in countries which are both ethnically homogenous and where there is a strong sense of solidarity, e.g. just after winning a war.
The BBC/media establishment are New Labour and can't stand Corbyn bar the entertainment value of placard waving footage.
The Extended Alternative Voting system requires voters to place outcomes in order of preference. Outcomes are the election of a candidate or the exclusion of a candidate.
The election proceeds by looking at first preferences so that, for each candidate there will be a score – votes for minus votes against. The candidate with lowest score, which will in all probability be negative, is eliminated, and their votes are reallocated according to the outcomes they give as second preferences. This process continues until one candidate emerges.
This system reflects the reality of preference and opinion when selecting an individual. But then, whatever its merits or flaws, is there any electorate capable of understanding it?
I think he's dangerous for exactly this reason. If he was Labour leader - I'd be concerned, not amused.
Corbyn supporters countered with amendments of their own, proposing a June 24 cut-off date (the day after the Brexit vote) and a seven-day sign-up period for registered supporters. The plan to extend the sign-up period to a week was defeated by a show of hands with 16 votes to 10. The plan to change the freeze date to June 24 was tied, with 14 votes for and against, and as a result fell.
I think Corbyn could still lose because of this.
Incidentally, Farage is attending the RNC conference to talk about Brexit.
IPSOS tend to show bigger Clinton leads. Better Florida polls for Trump yesterday but all came from pollsters showing similar leads previously and with indifferent 538 ratings and some novel demographic crosstabs.
Presently Clinton holds solid leads in the swing states and a comfortable edge in national polling and it's hers to lose. I have the EC at 347/191
http://www.270towin.com/
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-national-executive-committee-nec-how-he-triumphed_uk_57856207e4b08078d6e765d3?ycx1ihi6jcr82gldi
Woolfe isn't a disgruntled Tory like Farage - that's why I think he's got to nous to make it work.
Titter ....
Heart Of (Ed)Stone
I agree its still bad but that -60% is way too high....