politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big 36 hours ahead in the race to Number 10

ydoethur said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Why shouldn't she hand a man who has never been elected to any office in his own strength and whom everyone in Europe hates a seat at her negotiating table?

Or was that a rhetorical question?

The man I would look to have involved in some way is William Hague, who ticks many boxes from that point of view - euro sceptic who softened his stance, popular, affable, good negotiating skills, commands general respect in the Conservative party, etc.

Farage. You don't send a loner to a negotiation. End of.

That's funny about Davis in 2005.

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.

Thirded - I also think the comment about others projecting their hopes onto her (pretty blank) piece of paper perceptive......

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

That does presuppose that people are voting on Leave/Remain lines. Suppose they are authoritarian/libertarian? That would see May, Leadsom and Fox (59%) vs Gove and Crabb (41%).

Yes there may be some Crabb voters for Gove and Fox voters for May but be realistic the main dividing line in the current climate will be Brexit. Also May has supported gay marriage and Gove has come out firmly against free movement so the liberal and authoritarian divide between them is less clear than the Leave and Remain divide was

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

Interesting snippit in the Times this mornibg.

Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.

That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.

EU are on the spot. If they play hardball and kick us out of the lot, it could cause a severe recession on the continent and especially in Ireland, which would cause another round of the Euro crisis.

If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.

I can see why Merkel wants somebody sane, intelligent and sober in charge. But her moves against Juncker are making matters still worse.

It's a mess, and it's entirely of their own making. If they hadn't imposed Giscard's appalling constitution despite a double referendum rejection, they wouldn't be in this horrendous mess now.

Quite so. And they still seem inclined to petulantly blame the uk as the problem, rather than thinking about why we left.

They're in a tough spot, as you say, and it could work for or against us.

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

He is toxic in any any negotiation with the EU

You are simply projecting your own prejudices. We voted to Leave, it is now the govt's responsibility to carry that out and act in the interest of the people. Nobody understands the EU better than Nigel.

He is toxic in the EU. If we want a good relationship with them then putting Farage forwards as part of our team is not going to help.

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

He is toxic in any any negotiation with the EU

You are simply projecting your own prejudices. We voted to Leave, it is now the govt's responsibility to carry that out and act in the interest of the people. Nobody understands the EU better than Nigel.

That is not what is needed. What is needed is someone with good judgment, the ability to build alliances, an understanding of what is best for Britain in these changed circumstances and the ability quietly and diplomatically and patiently negotiate with a variety of people and groups to get a good result. Does that sound like Farage? He is more interested in the sound of his own voice, he can't get on with people in his own party let alone anyone else and he thinks that insulting foreigners is a good thing.

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

She has some questions to answer today. Her position over Farage and close links with UKIP, her evasive answers on her tax return and tax vehicles she is alleged to have used to avoid inheritance tax, and the reports from her former colleagues how difficult she was to work with.

What links does she have with Ukip?

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

She has some questions to answer today. Her position over Farage and close links with UKIP, her evasive answers on her tax return and tax vehicles she is alleged to have used to avoid inheritance tax, and the reports from her former colleagues how difficult she was to work with.

What links does she have with Ukip?

Arron Banks is financing her

No he isn't. Why do you need to tell lies?

I do not lie - he is supporting her campaign as has been widely reported

blackburn63 said:

Cyclefree said:

It is disingenuous to say that tax returns should only be published if a candidate reaches the final two? Why not be transparent at the point it matters - when allowing others to decide whether a candidate should reach the final two? It smacks of someone attaching more importance to themselves than to the electorate, a certain high handedness which - to me anyway - is not a good sign.

The more I see of Ms L, the less I like her.

I agree about the tax returns thing, has May been asked?

According to the DT she will be publishing, possibly today.

MaxPB said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

He is toxic in any any negotiation with the EU

You are simply projecting your own prejudices. We voted to Leave, it is now the govt's responsibility to carry that out and act in the interest of the people. Nobody understands the EU better than Nigel.

He is toxic in the EU. If we want a good relationship with them then putting Farage forwards as part of our team is not going to help.

Exactly: whatever happens, the EU (or its successor) will be a market of approximately 400m people that start about 25 miles from out shore. We want to have a good relationship with them going forward.

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

I hold no brief for Andrea Leadsom but this inexperience meme is overplayed. What trap did she fall into over tax returns? How is this different from the more experienced David Cameron and George Osborne who shared their tax returns after the Panama Papers leaks?

She hesitated, mumbled and then came out with a, 'yes, alright.' That is, she had no answer prepared and did not stall or ask for time to think until she had considered the implications. Once she had, she tried to change her mind, which simply looks worse.

That's certainly not what you need in a PM.

Mr. Jessop, no.

Now, that may seem hypocritical, but let me explain. Byzantium/Constantinople was the New Rome. It was the centre of the Orthodox religion as well as capital of the Eastern Empire. As such, its main cathedral being claimed as a mosque is as jarring as if mosques in Mecca [I specifically cited Mecca because it's the centre of Islam] were converted into churches after the city was conquered, or if the reverse happened in Rome.

It's especially poignant in Byzantium because the city's fall extinguished that civilisation forever.

Lesser churches, mosques, synagogues etc in other cities swapping hands doesn't concern me as much. As you say, Islam was pushed out of Spain, and Christianity's been receding from the Middle East for centuries. There's bound to be some changing of hands. But cities like Constantinople, Rome, Mecca and (to a lesser extent because it's shared, as it were) Jerusalem are more important to those faiths than other places.

Edited extra bit: I agree with your (added? Missed it the first time) comment on the retreat of secularism under Erdogan being significant.

HYUFD said:

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

That seems like such a hard contest to poll.

Before the final two are selected, I'd be inclined to dismiss any polling. After the final two are selected polls will be interesting, but carry little weight.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

blackburn63 said:

Cyclefree said:

It is disingenuous to say that tax returns should only be published if a candidate reaches the final two? Why not be transparent at the point it matters - when allowing others to decide whether a candidate should reach the final two? It smacks of someone attaching more importance to themselves than to the electorate, a certain high handedness which - to me anyway - is not a good sign.

The more I see of Ms L, the less I like her.

I agree about the tax returns thing, has May been asked?

According to the DT she will be publishing, possibly today.

Yes and she said they are uncomplicated and will be published in the next day or so

Her Register of Interests is very racy.....she & her husband own shares in the Pru.....and she's got a discount card from Russell & Bromley.....and that's about it.......

In fairness Leadsom's 'Buy to Let' empire is three properties....but then there's that (perfectly legal) offshore trust......

So Liam Fox will not publish his tax returns unless he reaches the final two ....

He couldn't reach the last two in a field of him and one other !! .. Fox is about as much use in the Conservative leadership contest as hemorrhoid cream for journalists at the Gove launch speech.

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

That seems like such a hard contest to poll.

Before the final two are selected, I'd be inclined to dismiss any polling. After the final two are selected polls will be interesting, but carry little weight.

The only poll that would matter is the one of voting party members. I have just completed one with ConHome and if she is ahead when that result is published then she should be PM

CarlottaVance said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.

Thirded - I also think the comment about others projecting their hopes onto her (pretty blank) piece of paper perceptive......

There seem to be a number of people projecting their fears onto her too.

She looks like a winner. For the MP end of the contest that may be enough to get her to the final two.

<"Big_G_NorthWales">.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

She has some questions to answer today. Her position over Farage and close links with UKIP, her evasive answers on her tax return and tax vehicles she is alleged to have used to avoid inheritance tax, and the reports from her former colleagues how difficult she was to work with.

What links does she have with Ukip?

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

She has some questions to answer today. Her position over Farage and close links with UKIP, her evasive answers on her tax return and tax vehicles she is alleged to have used to avoid inheritance tax, and the reports from her former colleagues how difficult she was to work with.

What links does she have with Ukip?

Arron Banks is financing her

No he isn't. Why do you need to tell lies?

I do not lie - he is supporting her campaign as has been widely reported

Ahhh, so we've moved from financing to supporting, thanks.

You know we are on the same side and I am sure we only want the best outcome and to avoid unnecessary own goals, one of which would be to have any connection with Farage

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

He is toxic in any any negotiation with the EU

You are simply projecting your own prejudices. We voted to Leave, it is now the govt's responsibility to carry that out and act in the interest of the people. Nobody understands the EU better than Nigel.

And nobody is more toxic in dealing with the EU. Remember I was for remain and now leave and I really want to leave and do not want anyone involved who could damage the process, and damage it Farage would

You have no evidence to support your claim, just prejudice. Leave won, Farage did more than anybody else, it would be entirely reasonable to give him a role.

No: because being involved in the negotiations is not some sort of prize for your role in the campaign and because what is needed now is not to win a referendum (and for me Farage's role with the poster deserves condemnation not rewarding) but boring hard graft to get a good deal and a good but different relationship with our European neighbours. This requires a totally different set of skills, skills which Farage does not have.

Good morning all.

We've said it several times, the skill sets required to negotiate Brexit are not necessarily to be found among our politicians. I can't recall who mentioned it (Charles?), but we're going to have three tiers: the negotiating team, the political team and the principal.

Once we have a feel for the mutual goals, it's going to be dull, unexciting, inglorious and detail-oriented work picking over thousand upon thousands of clauses in treaties and directives.

Nigel is a demagogue. Totally unsuitable to be involved. We need people who are both tough yet emollient. I like the suggestion of Hague, but he'd probably not be interested at this point in his career.

On topic, not seen anything to dissuade me that May is the "best" pick.

anotherDave said:

CarlottaVance said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.

Thirded - I also think the comment about others projecting their hopes onto her (pretty blank) piece of paper perceptive......

There seem to be a number of people projecting their fears onto her too.

She looks like a winner. For the MP end of the contest that may be enough to get her to the final two.

A winner and a leaver, that may play with the members too. Enough to overcome her inexperience? Possibly, if she s impressive against May.

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

Presumably the part not owned and run by the state.....


I didn't know communists still existed in Britain.

Farage should not have a role for the same reason Tony Blair should not have a role. This is a Tory government and Farage is the opponent not a part of it.

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this also rules her out of being Chancellor. That would also be a really tough gig for someone trying to learn the political side. Hammond or even Grayling would be better, with Leadsom as their Number 2 in charge of negotiations with Europe over trade.

Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.

As someone with a vote to cast, it seems Leadsom had one good debate (out of two) that has given her the leg up to stand in this contest. I'm thinking that is not enough to make me consider voting for her as PM.

But I still have big concerns that May will all too readily listen to the siren voices that Brexit is "just too difficult to do..." Not implementing Brexit - in some form - would be the biggest "sod you" to the clearly expressed will of the people. The new PM has a duty to find a way. Activating Article 50 is the primary purpose of whoever wins the membership vote. And surely, they'd want to. Any PM not activating Article 50 would carry the can for exposing that we had silently conceded our nation status to an EU that would then have no qualms about bouncing us into the full EU project, now that Cameron's "hard won" detachment from ever closer union has fallen by the roadside.

So I look at May and think "Hmmmmmmm......" Then I look at the rest of the field and think "Noooooo......" Part of me wants a coronation - so then I can blame the MPs for the outcome.

Wow massive UKIP push on social media for Leadsom. Almost like it was organised.

Philip_Thompson said:

Farage should not have a role for the same reason Tony Blair should not have a role. This is a Tory government and Farage is the opponent not a part of it.

You'd hope the negotiations would involve some cross-party discussions/involvement.

Cyclefree said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

blackburn63 said:

Scott_P said:

@BethRigby: Over to you @andrealeadsom - will you hand @Nigel_Farage a seat at your #Brexit negotiation table? https://t.co/YxAbs56kET

Why shouldn't she?

Totally unacceptable for Farage to be given any role

Why?

He is toxic in any any negotiation with the EU

You are simply projecting your own prejudices. We voted to Leave, it is now the govt's responsibility to carry that out and act in the interest of the people. Nobody understands the EU better than Nigel.

And nobody is more toxic in dealing with the EU. Remember I was for remain and now leave and I really want to leave and do not want anyone involved who could damage the process, and damage it Farage would

You have no evidence to support your claim, just prejudice. Leave won, Farage did more than anybody else, it would be entirely reasonable to give him a role.

No: because being involved in the negotiations is not some sort of prize for your role in the campaign and because what is needed now is not to win a referendum (and for me Farage's role with the poster deserves condemnation not rewarding) but boring hard graft to get a good deal and a good but different relationship with our European neighbours. This requires a totally different set of skills, skills which Farage does not have.

Well said. What does being prominent in the leave cause have to do with deserving a place at negotiations. All the detail will be done by lawyers and officials, what's needed as input from politicians is clear direction, intent and diplomatic presentation. Farage would not help with the latter, and as its a government decision what we go for, unless there's some sort of vote, he has no role in the former.

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

That seems like such a hard contest to poll.

Before the final two are selected, I'd be inclined to dismiss any polling. After the final two are selected polls will be interesting, but carry little weight.

I doubt members views will change that much after the ballots of MPs and the polling is useful for showing who is leading with members and how they break down in favour of Remainers and Leavers. Members polls also showed Cameron would win the Tory leadership in 2005 and IDS in 2001 so I would not dismiss them

After the final two are selected people are comparing two individuals. Before then it's just an exercise in name recognition.

Not entirely, May and Gove are both recognised and on opposite wings and the other three will be better known with Tory members than they are with the public

Realistically there are 2 ppl in this race who should never have joined. A third ought to have disqualified himself by his actions. That leaves an inevitable 2 to go forward. I suspect only 1 of them will be in the final though.

logical_song said:

nunu said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

Presumably the part not owned and run by the state.....


I didn't know communists still existed in Britain.

Genuine question, has buy to let pushed up the price of houses?

Yes. BTL arises because housing is attractive as an investment (low cost of borrowing + unattractive returns almost everywhere else). Hence the demand for housing comes from people wanting to buy-and-live plus people wanting to buy-and-let. Greater demand pushes up prices.

If the reverse happens - housing becomes (relatively) less attractive as an investment and so BTL landlords start to cash up, then prices should start to come down. If there's a panic exit plus foreclosures etc. then there's a housing market crash. The Government is trying to engineer the former before we reach the latter.

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

blackburn63 said:

Cyclefree said:

It is disingenuous to say that tax returns should only be published if a candidate reaches the final two? Why not be transparent at the point it matters - when allowing others to decide whether a candidate should reach the final two? It smacks of someone attaching more importance to themselves than to the electorate, a certain high handedness which - to me anyway - is not a good sign.

The more I see of Ms L, the less I like her.

I agree about the tax returns thing, has May been asked?

According to the DT she will be publishing, possibly today.

Yes and she said they are uncomplicated and will be published in the next day or so

Her Register of Interests is very racy.....she & her husband own shares in the Pru.....and she's got a discount card from Russell & Bromley.....and that's about it.......

In fairness Leadsom's 'Buy to Let' empire is three properties....but then there's that (perfectly legal) offshore trust......

She gifted the business to her son so it may not be only 3 properties.

If her son owns the business its not hers is it....

Morning all,

Another humdinger of a political week coming up. Today is probably Labour's day, but who knows. Let's hope Eagle or Owen can agree on a single candidate. It's getting a bit like Wimbledon with Mens and Ladies on alternate days.

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, no.

Now, that may seem hypocritical, but let me explain. Byzantium/Constantinople was the New Rome. It was the centre of the Orthodox religion as well as capital of the Eastern Empire. As such, its main cathedral being claimed as a mosque is as jarring as if mosques in Mecca [I specifically cited Mecca because it's the centre of Islam] were converted into churches after the city was conquered, or if the reverse happened in Rome.

Don't forget though it happened in Jerusalem as well. The al-Aqsa mosque is on the site of a synagogue, and the main Christian churches were converted to mosques in the first Islamic conquest (although not reconverted after Hattin).

I know that, but I still think it is hypocritical.

It is not my period of history, but as far as I'm aware: Byzantium/Constantinople was not particularly related to the history of Jesus, and is instead more to do with the split between western and eastern churches.

Jerusalem is a fairer point, but that is even more complex because of the rich history of the area.

Your comparison is particularly egregious as Mecca (*) is sacred to Muslims in a couple of ways, firstly as the birthplace of the big Mo and a place he had revelations. As far as I'm aware, there are no such links between Jesus and Constantinople.

(*) BTW, I'm amused that if you enter 'Mecca' into google, the first three hits are for Mecca Bingo ...

mr-claypole said:

Wow massive UKIP push on social media for Leadsom. Almost like it was organised.

It is organised. Leave.eu have officially backed Leadsom. Any other totally public campaigns you'd like to inform us of on the qt?

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Team @andrealeadsom say she won't publish tax returns until and unless makes final ballot - so not put unfair pressure on MPs to do same

She clearly hadn't thought this through before yesterday and now looks like she's backtracking. A more experienced politician would not have been tripped up that way.

Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.

Exactly so.

Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are by others.

It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.

Personally I think this trade.

Agreed. My professional antennae are twitching when it comes to Ms L. I fear that she may be like many I encounter professionally in my job. Good on paper but not much substance or raging egomaniacs with ropy judgment.

As someone with a vote to cast, it seems Leadsom had one good debate (out of two) that has given her the leg up to stand in this contest. I'm thinking that is not enough to make me consider voting for her as PM.

But I still have big concerns that May will all too readily listen to the siren voices that Brexit is "just too difficult to do..." Not implementing Brexit - in some form - would be the biggest "sod you" to the clearly expressed will of the people. The new PM has a duty to find a way. Activating Article 50 is the primary purpose of whoever wins the membership vote. And surely, they'd want to. Any PM not activating Article 50 would carry the can for exposing that we had silently conceded our nation status to an EU that would then have no qualms about bouncing us into the full EU project, now that Cameron's "hard won" detachment from ever closer union has fallen by the roadside.

So I look at May and think "Hmmmmmmm......" Then I look at the rest of the field and think "Noooooo......" Part of me wants a coronation - so then I can blame the MPs for the outcome.

The idea we won't Brexit is pure conspiracy theory thinking. Even if the economy crashed completely and if the eu suddenly caves on everything so long as we stayed, neither of which seems probable so extremely, the government would be brought down if it tried to back down and a pro eu government would not be elected in its stead.

So it is happening. The only arguments will be when declaring woukd be best, and what to go for. The latter is where peop,e will claim 'true' Brexit had not happened, but that would be pure bilge.

IanB2 said:

logical_song said:

nunu said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

Presumably the part not owned and run by the state.....


I didn't know communists still existed in Britain.

Genuine question, has buy to let pushed up the price of houses?

Yes. BTL arises because housing is attractive as an investment (low cost of borrowing + unattractive returns almost everywhere else). Hence the demand for housing comes from people wanting to buy-and-live plus people wanting to buy-and-let. Greater demand pushes up prices.

If the reverse happens - housing becomes (relatively) less attractive as an investment and so BTL landlords start to cash up, then prices should start to come down. If there's a panic exit plus foreclosures etc. then there's a housing market crash. The Government is trying to engineer the former before we reach the latter.

Worse, there are people who Buy-to-Leave - relying on asset appreciation to give them a return. I'd imagine that's a London-only phenomenon, but it doesn't help either.

The UK property market is just so screwed up. I can't prove it, but wouldn't be surprised if the property bubble is a major contributory factor to our lousy savings rates as well.

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, no.

Now, that may seem hypocritical, but let me explain. Byzantium/Constantinople was the New Rome. It was the centre of the Orthodox religion as well as capital of the Eastern Empire. As such, its main cathedral being claimed as a mosque is as jarring as if mosques in Mecca [I specifically cited Mecca because it's the centre of Islam] were converted into churches after the city was conquered, or if the reverse happened in Rome.

Don't forget though it happened in Jerusalem as well. The al-Aqsa mosque is on the site of a synagogue, and the main Christian churches were converted to mosques in the first Islamic conquest (although not reconverted after Hattin).

I know that, but I still think it is hypocritical.

It is not my period of history, but as far as I'm aware: Byzantium/Constantinople was not particularly related to the history of Jesus, and is instead more to do with the split between western and eastern churches.

Jerusalem is a fairer point, but that is even more complex because of the rich history of the area.

Your comparison is particularly egregious as Mecca (*) is sacred to Muslims in a couple of ways, firstly as the birthplace of the big Mo and a place he had revelations. As far as I'm aware, there are no such links between Jesus and Constantinople.

(*) BTW, I'm amused that if you enter 'Mecca' into google, the first three hits are for Mecca Bingo ...

It wasn't *my* comparison. I wasn't comparing it to Mecca, but to Constantinople. Moreover Jerusalem is sacred to three religions for at least five different reasons.

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

ICM yesterday had May on 46% with members followed by Gove on 18%, Leadsom on 7%, Crabb on 6% and Fox on 6%. So the combined vote of the two Remainers, May and Crabb is 52%. That suggests May could face a tougher fight once only one Leave candidate is left to go to the membership but she should still win

That seems like such a hard contest to poll.

Before the final two are selected, I'd be inclined to dismiss any polling. After the final two are selected polls will be interesting, but carry little weight.

I doubt members views will change that much after the ballots of MPs and the polling is useful for showing who is leading with members and how they break down in favour of Remainers and Leavers. Members polls also showed Cameron would win the Tory leadership in 2005 and IDS in 2001 so I would not dismiss them

After the final two are selected people are comparing two individuals. Before then it's just an exercise in name recognition.

Not entirely, May and Gove are both recognised and on opposite wings and the other three will be better known with Tory members than they are with the public

True. But a two person contest has its own behaviour.

In 2005 I think Mr Cameron went from underdog to winner after one well received speech.

That speech was well before the first MPs ballot which is now tomorrow

How many head to head debates will the final two have?

McDonnell donned a beret this morning to say that there is no closed door to Tom Watson and Jeremy is a Man of Steel, Labour will have a collective leadership.

His contribution to new political comedy: "There are no American tanks in Baghdad".

logical_song said:

nunu said:

CarlottaVance said:

MaxPB said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MaxPB said:

Andrea Leadsom invested in buy-to-let. It makes her unfit to hold office.

Is that comment a joke?

No. It shows a terrible lack of judgement that she thinks being a parasite is an acceptable way if investing.

Which part of the housing market do you object to?

Presumably the part not owned and run by the state.....


I didn't know communists still existed in Britain.

Genuine question, has buy to let pushed up the price of houses?

It will arguably have pushed DOWN rental prices. A higher supply of properties to let will provide more flexibility in the market for those who are more mobile and or can't afford to buy.

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

ydoethur said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, no.

Now, that may seem hypocritical, but let me explain. Byzantium/Constantinople was the New Rome. It was the centre of the Orthodox religion as well as capital of the Eastern Empire. As such, its main cathedral being claimed as a mosque is as jarring as if mosques in Mecca [I specifically cited Mecca because it's the centre of Islam] were converted into churches after the city was conquered, or if the reverse happened in Rome.

Don't forget though it happened in Jerusalem as well. The al-Aqsa mosque is on the site of a synagogue, and the main Christian churches were converted to mosques in the first Islamic conquest (although not reconverted after Hattin).

I know that, but I still think it is hypocritical.

It is not my period of history, but as far as I'm aware: Byzantium/Constantinople was not particularly related to the history of Jesus, and is instead more to do with the split between western and eastern churches.

Jerusalem is a fairer point, but that is even more complex because of the rich history of the area.

Your comparison is particularly egregious as Mecca (*) is sacred to Muslims in a couple of ways, firstly as the birthplace of the big Mo and a place he had revelations. As far as I'm aware, there are no such links between Jesus and Constantinople.

(*) BTW, I'm amused that if you enter 'Mecca' into google, the first three hits are for Mecca Bingo ...

It wasn't *my* comparison. I wasn't comparing it to Mecca, but to Constantinople. Moreover Jerusalem is sacred to three religions for at least five different reasons.

Sorry, I thought I was responding to Mr Dancer's post. I had a severe brain-fart.

Apologies.

So Leadsom is the Tory Corbyn. Vocally backed by non-Tories and happy to bring in people from other, more extreme parties to push an agenda that the Tories have traditionally shied away from - perhaps to the regret of a large section of the membership. Will Tory members and MPs be as stupid as Labour ones? It's hard to believe so, but these are peculiar times.

MikeL said:

. Whereas Gove is very well known and has plenty of experience - so his pitch to members will be much stronger than Leadsom. He'll be entirely credible as a PM and equally able to play the "PM must support Brexit" card.

Yes, but being well known for being a backstabbing git and experienced at dogmatic policy making based on careful civil service house training that causes everyone whom he is controlling to hate his guts isn't perhaps terribly helpful either.

Just in case anyone is wondering, I don't like Gove as you may have guessed before.

Have a good day everyone.