politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big 36 hours ahead in the race to Number 10
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big 36 hours ahead in the race to Number 10
Tomorrow MPs will vote by secret ballot in the first round of the 2016 Conservative Leadership Race. The choice will be more than just the party leadership because the winner becomes the next PM.
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Would someone please post an update on the overnight content of Michael Gove's launch speech .
I've had an e-mail alert that he's getting to the Andorra BREXIT option and I don't want to miss any summary that some astute site member might wish to share, probably over several parts I know. But heck we've got to cover this speech fully.
Any news of Charlie Falconer?
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/home-affairs/policing/interview/76852/sadiq-khan-sell-boris-johnsons-water-cannons-£200000
Coming up on eBay very soon.... (although, seriously, quoting a definite price makes me think they may already be sold)
Schebule has confirmed that his "out means out" comment was made at the explicit request of Osborne.
That sounds like he is gently backtracking - he wants a deal that keeps the UK in the single market.
Well Boris, many leavers and remainers are united in thinking that one good thing to come out of the Brexit vote is that Boris Johnson will never be PM.
If they play softly, they practically invite Finland and Poland to join us in leaving, while simultaneously dragging out the process and causing massive uncertainty.
I can see why Merkel wants somebody sane, intelligent and sober in charge. But her moves against Juncker are making matters still worse.
It's a mess, and it's entirely of their own making. If they hadn't imposed Giscard's appalling constitution despite a double referendum rejection, they wouldn't be in this horrendous mess now.
Best of the Brexiteers.
Until they know who they are dealing with and whether EEA or WTO is our objective, they should not play any cards.
You have ore of a point with Cameron. But by the time he became PM he had been party leader for five years, and had successfully seen off Brown even before the financial crash (remember the election that never was?) He also made moves towards making the party more electable (a process possibly started by Howard).
Parties changing leader whilst in opposition have at least a few years to get it right: if you make a bad decision, as the Tories did with IDS or Labour with Corbyn, you get a few years' grace to elect someone better (hopefully Labour will learn this lesson now) and turn the party around.
When a party leader changes whilst in government, the newcomer becomes not just party leader, but also PM. The risks of inexperience are so much greater.
"It was wrong of the Government to offer the public a binary choice on the EU without being willing – in the event that people voted Leave – to explain how this can be made to work in the interests of the UK and Europe. We cannot wait until mid-September, and a new PM. We need a clear statement, now, of some basic truths:"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/tory-candidates-need-a-plan-for-brexit---heres-mine-in-5-points/
How does anyone know whether Leadsom will be remotely good at that?
And Blair had been in parliament 14 years and Cameron 9 before they became PM......
Ms Leadsom has spent the past few years as the leader of the EU Fresh Start group in parliament. They've been examining possible reforms of the EU, and visiting other EU member states to sell/discuss EU reform.
That will provide useful knowledge and contacts if Ms Leadsom becomes PM after this contest.
His challenge is to knuckle down, follow his brief, if he is given one, or create one if not, pick up a few causes, and make himself the obvious 2020-2025 PM in waiting, while rebuilding his loyalty ratings the while.
Meanwhile:
Gove = treachery
May = safe pair of hands
Leadsom = Hansard lecture
Crabb = meh
Fox = dear god no
Still, we are dealing with Cons Party members, so all up in the air. Half of them voted Leave after, all.
If he's given up completely I don't think he'll endorse anyone. Of course, that may come to the same thing in the end.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/welcher-konzern-stellte-fluechtlinge-ein-14322168.html
Knuckle down, not be Boris = have a shot; be Boris...blow it.
This is why he was never likely to make the runoff anyway.
Also, there is much more to be done. The EU negotiations are massively important, but so is running the country well.
That is how we should be judging the contenders.
He'll be yesterday's joked.
It's why I remained fully invested through Brexit.
Has she done any of that? And if not why not?
Inexperience is not a crime, but it's also not what you look for when appointing somebody to a responsible position at a difficult moment. Learning politics while being PM would be very tough.
My thoughts on an exciting but financially disadvantageous race are up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/austria-post-race-analysis-2016.html
On-topic: May supporters might well feel at liberty to vote elsewhere, given her enormous lead. But cui bono?
Probably not Leadsom. Perhaps not Gove. Could Crabb do better than expected?
Edited extra bit: did mean to make a small donation, but some money I was expecting hasn't come through yet. Prefer to use that, so I'll give it a week or so.
ninety nine17.6 million righteous ones who do not need to repent."Only a feeling but something does not quite smell right about her. Too many people are projecting their hopes onto her and at that inexperience will lead to her being used by others.
It will cost the country dear if the Tories go for a female IDS.
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/749855407410188288
Imagine hymns sung in a conquered mosque in Mecca.
The Justice Secretary said that Conservative leadership candidates should be “transparent about their income”.
Mrs Leadsom was refusing to publish her tax return unless she reaches the final two of the Conservative leadership contest amid concerns that it would create a “precedent” for all MPs to follow.
Liam Fox also agreed to publish his return but only if he makes the final two candidates, while Stephen Crabb will publish but did not confirm when. Theresa May is also expected to publish her return, possibly today.
Ms Leadsom has previously faced scrutiny over her tax affairs for using offshore bank accounts as part of a property business she ran with her husband.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/04/andrea-leadsom-brexit-tory-leadership-campaign-ukip-live/
Or was that a rhetorical question?
The man I would look to have involved in some way is William Hague, who ticks many boxes from that point of view - euro sceptic who softened his stance, popular, affable, good negotiating skills, commands general respect in the Conservative party, etc.
For Leadsom personally it might be something she finds used against her in a campaign, but it's hardly up there with the big scandals; I am sure I read somewhere that nearly 40% of MPs are at it.
I think you said that yesterday, and probably the day before and probably the day before that.
Every in Europe hates?
Well that's the facts dealt with I guess.
I highly doubt we can continue to delay until the end of the year, and maybe it would be a good idea to do so immediately, but to say the people voted to declare immediately is simply factually incorrect.
We are seeing a lot of claims any action other than that which individuals want is anti democratic, and it's nonsense. Why should she?
The government can pick who it wants, clearly, therefore people are free to feel some other people should or should not be involved. Depending on what we Intend to ask for,he might be a liability.