Where the hell is the govt today? Have they run away?
I get the impression Cameron is sulking and no one else currently has the authority to step up and do anything. He is after all still Prime Minister for the next 3 months.
He was at some veterans' event yesterday - he looked like he was being held hostage. He really doesn't want to the day job right now. Hopefully he'll pick himself back up and get on with it until a new leader is chosen.
There's an awful photo of Cameron on the front of the Sunday Telegraph. He looks like the guy on a used car franchise who has been perennially passed over for promotion...
Cameron's old news, but it will take a few days for the press and his opponents to adjust. But as we're quoting Richard Nixon, I wonder who the right-wing media will go after when they don't have Dave to kick around any more?
Nick Eardley @nickeardleybbc 6m6 minutes ago Chair of Scottish PLP Lord Foulkes tells me there is "nobody" to take over position of shadow Scottish secretary
Labour could do worse than elect Frank Field or Gisela Stuart but they won't for obvious reasons. It would bring the North back faster than John Snow managed.
Del Piero is the prettiest ... but that's all I can add really. Yes, I'm shallow, I know.
She's working class through and through and has a good touch with people from what I've seen. Tough (mad?) enough to be leader? Not sure.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
Stand back a moment. Imagine Chukka trying to sell himself to Mrs. Duffy in Rochdale...
Labour needs somebody who knows what the inside of a Working Mens Club looks like, not another mushy-pea/guacomole mistaker...
Yes, I'm sure Mrs Duffy would cry 'You're one of them bleedin' immigrants' and run off. I'm not a Labour supporter, but I suspect all those urging them to become Red BNP (and there are several around here) don't necessarily have the party's best interests at heart.
Duffy is a bigot. One of the very few things Brown did get right. Great line about Red BNP. That is a term that deserves to stick. If there is one good thing about this referendum, it's that liberal, pro-market, pro-immigration Europhile Labourites have realised that they have much more in common with the Tories' Europhile moderates than the traditionalist wing of their own party. Chuka can pick up Tory votes in the sensible centre ground if the Tories choose a eurosceptic right winger.
Calling Mrs Duffy a bigot is exactly why the folk at the top of the Labour party and 90% of its MPs are dangerously out of touch with their Labour base outside of London. But the lessons of neglecting the base in Scotland have clearly not been learned and Wales, the North and the Midlands are going the same way that Scotland and the South has gone. PS - I said at the start of this referendum this would be about how the Mrs Duffy type of voter, voted. That is why she has been my icon from the start.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Spending the weekend in Somerset with my French contacts. France is livid with us but Germany doing their best (and will succeed) in keeping them under control.
French anger driven by fact that Brexit materially increases risk of Le Pen winning - also why they want to make Brexit painful. View from establishment is that why I'm can survive Brexit France could not survive Frexit (Le Pen's policy - although she will just write off the debt).
Other concern is she had been bought and paid for by Putin. I don't know NATO Article 5 but my contact said that certain countries can veto collective action under Article 5, France being one of them. If Le Pen is president Putin will annex the Baltics. U.S. alone can only put in 0.5m and can't beat Russia. NATO collectively can do 3.0m and would win...
Wow. That sounds a bit OTT though. And people really shoudn't be blaming their own internal problems on foreigners.
The point being that before the vote we had lots of Remaniners on here saying that EFTA wouldn't want us. I suspect that is going to turn out to be incorrect.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
Agree, the Republican activists who turn out to vote in their primary will vote for Sarko. The way I see it if that occurs Le Pen wins round one comfortably and Hollande edges past Sarko to go to round two. Le Pen could then very well beat Hollande in round 2, maybe 52-48 again, to win the presidency!
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
Stand back a moment. Imagine Chukka trying to sell himself to Mrs. Duffy in Rochdale...
Labour needs somebody who knows what the inside of a Working Mens Club looks like, not another mushy-pea/guacomole mistaker...
Yes, I'm sure Mrs Duffy would cry 'You're one of them bleedin' immigrants' and run off. I'm not a Labour supporter, but I suspect all those urging them to become Red BNP (and there are several around here) don't necessarily have the party's best interests at heart.
Duffy is a bigot. One of the very few things Brown did get right. Great line about Red BNP. That is a term that deserves to stick. If there is one good thing about this referendum, it's that liberal, pro-market, pro-immigration Europhile Labourites have realised that they have much more in common with the Tories' Europhile moderates than the traditionalist wing of their own party. Chuka can pick up Tory votes in the sensible centre ground if the Tories choose a eurosceptic right winger.
Calling Mrs Duffy a bigot is exactly why the folk at the top of the Labour party and 90% of its MPs are dangerously out of touch with their Labour base outside of London. But the lessons of neglecting the base in Scotland have clearly not been learned and Wales, the North and the Midlands are going the same way that Scotland and the South has gone.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
I thought Mr Juppe had come out for a french referendum the other day?
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
I think it makes a massive difference whether Le Pen is up against the right wing or left wing candidate in the run off. Just not convinced that the right would be quite so mobilised as the left were in voting for Chirac.
Labour could do worse than elect Frank Field or Gisela Stuart but they won't for obvious reasons. It would bring the North back faster than John Snow managed.
Del Piero is the prettiest ... but that's all I can add really. Yes, I'm shallow, I know.
She's working class through and through and has a good touch with people from what I've seen. Tough (mad?) enough to be leader? Not sure.
In my past life I did a joint briefing with Del Piero who was covering Ed Balls- I was shocked by how little she knew of her brief, and had to take her questions. I think she lacks something of the grey matter, which as Corbyn rather proves, is something that is quite fundamental for a leader. She is very attractive though, but would remind me of Segolene Royal with the similar results.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
I wouldn't have thought Hollande would get to round two.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..
I genuinely believe that this is a doable deal but it needs clear leadership and cool heads. At the moment our political class are providing neither.
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.
What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Spending the weekend in Somerset with my French contacts. France is livid with us but Germany doing their best (and will succeed) in keeping them under control.
French anger driven by fact that Brexit materially increases risk of Le Pen winning - also why they want to make Brexit painful. View from establishment is that why I'm can survive Brexit France could not survive Frexit (Le Pen's policy - although she will just write off the debt).
Other concern is she had been bought and paid for by Putin. I don't know NATO Article 5 but my contact said that certain countries can veto collective action under Article 5, France being one of them. If Le Pen is president Putin will annex the Baltics. U.S. alone can only put in 0.5m and can't beat Russia. NATO collectively can do 3.0m and would win...
Indeed and if it is President Trump he will do sod all about the Baltics under his 'America First' policy, Putin, Le Pen and Trump have all been boosted significantly by Brexit
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
Talk of another seven resignations in the pipeline for Jezza...
I have wondered whether a lot of this is because they want to get him out of the leaders chair before Chilcot... Just in case he demands Tony Blair's arrest and prosecution for war crimes?
Nope. People want Corbyn out because he is a poor leader and the country needs strong opposition and a viable alternative government.
Well I think it's a shame.
Pat McFadden is doing a very sensible job on Sky. Lots of good valid points. He said something like 'leadership is more than protesting selfies'.
Nick Eardley @nickeardleybbc 6m6 minutes ago Chair of Scottish PLP Lord Foulkes tells me there is "nobody" to take over position of shadow Scottish secretary
There are a number of SLAB MPs in England - I would guess more than 6. It would of course be mildly funny, however it is a sympton of the failing Labour party.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..
I genuinely believe that this is a doable deal but it needs clear leadership and cool heads. At the moment our political class are providing neither.
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.
What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
There are certainly not indications that the EEA route is off the table from EFTA - quite the opposite.
It also looks to me like all the Tory Brexiters are moving in that direction as well.
Of course I would be bigging this up as I have been banging on about it for months.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
I wouldn't have thought Hollande would get to round two.
The question is whether Bayrou stands (I think he's said he's likely to again Sarko but not Juppe). If so, we could end up with a reverse 2002, where the centre/centre-right splits badly enough that the centre-left finishes in the top two against the FN despite a miserable share.
He said he wouldn't stand, but perhaps once Boris and May have fallen away, he could be persuaded....
Nice idea to place a potential key dividing line between candidates over single market. Gove for example has said he wants out of single market and that's what Brexit means.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.
What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Spending the weekend in Somerset with my French contacts. France is livid with us but Germany doing their best (and will succeed) in keeping them under control.
French anger driven by fact that Brexit materially increases risk of Le Pen winning - also why they want to make Brexit painful. View from establishment is that why I'm can survive Brexit France could not survive Frexit (Le Pen's policy - although she will just write off the debt).
Other concern is she had been bought and paid for by Putin. I don't know NATO Article 5 but my contact said that certain countries can veto collective action under Article 5, France being one of them. If Le Pen is president Putin will annex the Baltics. U.S. alone can only put in 0.5m and can't beat Russia. NATO collectively can do 3.0m and would win...
The NATO countries would respond if they want to irrespective of any French veto.
Whether they would want to respond to Russian aggression is another issue.
Re: Bristol losing more days to rain than any other county ground. May be partly due to Bristol having a tidal range of 13 metres (43 feet), the second highest in the world, and a high water table. Boats in harbour would keel over at low tide unless their cargo was arranged and stored properly, hence the 19th century phrase "ship shape and Bristol fashion".
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
Charles, is there any sense from your contacts that some fundamental reform of the EU is required in (for example) the area of free movement and related laws, to address one of the underlying causes of these nationalist movements? It is just that the pressure Merkel and Hollande's parties face in 2017 are partly caused by those issues.
Isabel Hardman Verified account @IsabelHardman Funnily enough, for the first time in a while, no-one is talking about Alan Johnson as potential successor to Corbyn
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
He might finally be about to make the Labour front bench. There'll be no other options at this rate.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Spending the weekend in Somerset with my French contacts. France is livid with us but Germany doing their best (and will succeed) in keeping them under control.
French anger driven by fact that Brexit materially increases risk of Le Pen winning - also why they want to make Brexit painful. View from establishment is that why I'm can survive Brexit France could not survive Frexit (Le Pen's policy - although she will just write off the debt).
Other concern is she had been bought and paid for by Putin. I don't know NATO Article 5 but my contact said that certain countries can veto collective action under Article 5, France being one of them. If Le Pen is president Putin will annex the Baltics. U.S. alone can only put in 0.5m and can't beat Russia. NATO collectively can do 3.0m and would win...
The NATO countries would respond if they want to irrespective of any French veto.
Whether they would want to respond to Russian aggression is another issue.
It would be quite a way for UK to get back into everyone's good books!
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
I wouldn't have thought Hollande would get to round two.
The question is whether Bayrou stands (I think he's said he's likely to again Sarko but not Juppe). If so, we could end up with a reverse 2002, where the centre/centre-right splits badly enough that the centre-left finishes in the top two against the FN despite a miserable share.
I'd agree if the centre-left candidate wasn't Hollande. The French I know (not necessarily a representative sample) snort with derision whenever his name is mentioned.
Seriously, do the PB Leavers honestly believe the EU campaign was fought on the substantive issues. This is a serious question. Will at least one of them with half a brain cell please answer this?
I agree to certain extent-but I think both sides were equally guilty of this.
I think a very important question going forwards is, how are the media going to address this?
The media are there to hold the politicians to account -if they stopped endlessly chasing the latest bit of greasy pole gossip and minor slip of the tongue and actually forced the politicians to explain their policies instead of this endless "well the other side will do this...." we would all be better served.
But the short answer to your question-No the campaign was rarely fought on the substantive issues.
The point being that before the vote we had lots of Remaniners on here saying that EFTA wouldn't want us. I suspect that is going to turn out to be incorrect.
Considering the US President got the 'what does he know?' treatment, I'm trying to imagine the opprobrium that would have been heaped on any Remainer who cited Iceland's musings to be in any way significant of anything.
If I were a Tory, Chuka would be the one I feared. The guy just oozes confidence and entrepreneurial charm. I predict that jobs and investment will be the overwhelming political issue of the post-Brexit years. If Chuka can charm the doers and the makers, and the Tories are being led by a Luddite, then Chuka's presence could prove deadly for them.
He oozes snake oil and smugness. I have yet to see a more dodgy looking/sounding character. For sure you would need to count your fingers after shaking hands with him.
I can't imagine anyone less likely to appeal to ordinary Labour voters than Chuka. Even Tristram Hunt is more in touch.
I'm not sure Tristram Hunt deserves such grief. Yes he's posh and yes Mandelson helped get him into Parliament. But I think he's a genuine old school social democrat. I don't think he's someone who would prioritise the City over the provincial economy.
I thought Marr's own piece at the beginning of his show today was excellent.
I read Tristram's paper about a new future for Labour way back when EdM was pretending to come up with a refreshed Party. It was quite good, but awfully academic and full of jargon. Blue Labour from Glasman was very good - but it mentioned to bogey word of immigration. So he got a peerage and outer darkness.
I've noticed how much more *ordinary* he seems now after landing in Stoke. If he wasn't called Tristram, he'd get less grief.
Isabel Hardman Verified account @IsabelHardman Funnily enough, for the first time in a while, no-one is talking about Alan Johnson as potential successor to Corbyn
They've seen him in inaction over the last three months.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.
It's tricky - as a country it would probably help us to delay making the article 50 until all our ducks are in a row, a period of several months at least, but it's getting to be utter chaos before then and government will cease. ..
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.
What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.
Do you have a link for that? I'm very interested in the politics of the various options. Did they say no access without free movement or no access period?
The point being that before the vote we had lots of Remaniners on here saying that EFTA wouldn't want us. I suspect that is going to turn out to be incorrect.
Considering the US President got the 'what does he know?' treatment, I'm trying to imagine the opprobrium that would have been heaped on any Remainer who cited Iceland's musings to be in any way significant of anything.
We shall see. The great thing about Brexit is that we are going to find out who was right about this.
Re: Bristol losing more days to rain than any other county ground. May be partly due to Bristol having a tidal range of 13 metres (43 feet), the second highest in the world, and a high water table. Boats in harbour would keel over at low tide unless their cargo was arranged and stored properly, hence the 19th century phrase "ship shape and Bristol fashion".
You learn something new every day.
Also explains the Floating Dock on the Avon, as ships got bigger they couldn't be beached without suffering damage, so the river was canalised and a basin was dug allowing ships to remain afloat
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
He might finally be about to make the Labour front bench. There'll be no other options at this rate.
Quite how he does that in his XMP status, perhaps as Lord Broxtowe?
Seriously, do the PB Leavers honestly believe the EU campaign was fought on the substantive issues. This is a serious question. Will at least one of them with half a brain cell please answer this?
Yes.
You have put up a principle argument for leave but let's be frank the vast majority of those that voted Leave did not vote Leave because of these issues. They voted leave because of the anti- politics mood as well on the issue of immigrants and foreigners. To think otherwise is delusional. The fear now is that the racists will see this vote and the xenophobic campaign presented by the Leave team as Carter Blanche to do what they want. There are already reports of people being attacked in the wake of this result - these are scary times for s hard working immigrant like me.
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
He might finally be about to make the Labour front bench. There'll be no other options at this rate.
Quite how he does that in his XMP status, perhaps as Lord Broxtowe?
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.
What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.
Do you have a link for that? I'm very interested in the politics of the various options. Did they say no access without free movement or no access period?
Thanks, Barnesian, I'll try to dig them out and post them on a thread later, but for some quotes, Google schaeuble and macron with Brexit. They are the respective economics ministers for Germany and France.
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
He might finally be about to make the Labour front bench. There'll be no other options at this rate.
Quite how he does that in his XMP status, perhaps as Lord Broxtowe?
Yes.
I was joking though.
That said, the new Shadow Scottish Sec will have to be either a peer or an MP representing an English constituency.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
Agree, the Republican activists who turn out to vote in their primary will vote for Sarko. The way I see it if that occurs Le Pen wins round one comfortably and Hollande edges past Sarko to go to round two. Le Pen could then very well beat Hollande in round 2, maybe 52-48 again, to win the presidency!
Le Pen beats Sarko in a head to head.
Holland's being pushed towards an open primary rather than automatic renomination
"Not all the people who voted Leave are racist but all racists voted Leave." Sadly so true.
I have to profoundly disagree with that. I have an ethnically Asian friend who had a girlfriend from a different part of Asia ethnically speaking. It's fair to say that her parents were totally dismissive of him on grounds of race - something he was very bitter about. She's now married to someone from the same part of Asia. I suspect there are many people like that. Would they ALL have voted out? Of course not.
This really cannot go on in the face of the current uncertainty.
The hints from Germany who tend to have a lot of sway are for a deal that is less than the EEA. reduced access to the single market but probably no supranational court and possibly a reduced freedom of movement requirement. I'm wondering if they would tie the UK into the EU's international trade deals. I can see advantages for both sides to that.
The Germans want to sell us cars and other engineering products without tariffs or hindrance. Fair enough but there has to be a quid pro quo for that and that means the single passport remains for our financial services. Obviously our financial services industry will have to comply with EU regs when dealing within the EU and they will need to accept ultimate supervision by the ECB.
There will be a haggle and Britain has cards to play and a deal will be struck although it's not clear who is going to strike the deal from our side. The strong indications are that the EEA is off the table. It is highly unlikely to include the Financial Passport. That's one benefit to the rEU of us flouncing off. In any case it requires ECJ and ECB oversight. No-one will trust on that, even if we wanted it ourselves. So that's the space in which the haggle will take place.
What are the strong indications that EEA is off the table? Is that from the EU or key Brexiteers?
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
Both Germany and France have said and reiterated, no access to the single market, which is the main feature of the EEA. Germany has talked about a unique arrangement for the UK. The eventual arrangement may have features of the EEA, but it looks it will be a different deal.
Do you have a link for that? I'm very interested in the politics of the various options. Did they say no access without free movement or no access period?
From what I have seen no opinion on free movement. The main thing is they want to avoid "cherry picking" and discourage others from doing the same thing.
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
Charles, is there any sense from your contacts that some fundamental reform of the EU is required in (for example) the area of free movement and related laws, to address one of the underlying causes of these nationalist movements? It is just that the pressure Merkel and Hollande's parties face in 2017 are partly caused by those issues.
French idea was to make a 2 tier Europe - the 6 and the rest. The 6 have a collective voting agreement and tell the rest what to do.
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
He might finally be about to make the Labour front bench. There'll be no other options at this rate.
Quite how he does that in his XMP status, perhaps as Lord Broxtowe?
You've got to admire the Leave Tories' honesty - we've now had complete row-back from every major Leave commitment.........
I had not noticed any statement from a member of the Government on this. Could you please link to that or are you refering to people for LEAVE that are not actually in Cabinet or in a more junior role of Government?
There is no official spokesman for Leave so sadly we aren't going to get any definitive responses any time soon . However it is very clear that every Leaver I have seen interviewed is saying something different to what they were saying this time last week. Practically every Leaver has admitted that the £350m a week for the NHS was bollocks and Leave spokesman have been all over the shop regarding immigration. Interesting times
There were official Vote Leave spokespeople (which does not include Farage), eg the three who took part on the BBC Great Debate. On that they were specifically asked if they were talking of particular number for immigration and they said no they would not get into numbers they were talking about control.
Now people are reacting with mock horror that people have said they were talking about control and not numbers.
Maybe if pundits and Remainers were listening to what Leavers were actually saying, rather than what they pretended Leave was saying, they wouldn't be so surprised today now that they're suddenly listening.
I think what you will find is important is what voters believe Leave was saying on immigration
The French cannot be complacent when Marine Le Pen presently leads polls for their presidential election next year
Well, so far they've rallied against the FN when they've had to though.
Only under Chirac and Le Pen senior was a poor second in the first round then, Marine Le Pen now has a clear lead in round one and beats Hollande in round two
And Sarko.
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
Charles, is there any sense from your contacts that some fundamental reform of the EU is required in (for example) the area of free movement and related laws, to address one of the underlying causes of these nationalist movements? It is just that the pressure Merkel and Hollande's parties face in 2017 are partly caused by those issues.
French idea was to make a 2 tier Europe - the 6 and the rest. The 6 have a collective voting agreement and tell the rest what to do.
I'm not sure I see that working..
.
It might work if they went back to more national vetoes. The argument for QMV was that you need to get agreements. If they agree on everything anyway, why's it necessary?
Where's Nick Palmer when you need him BTW. I thought he was quite candid yesterday about the internal mechanisations of the Labour Party. It makes the Borgias Court seem dull in comparison.
He might finally be about to make the Labour front bench. There'll be no other options at this rate.
Quite how he does that in his XMP status, perhaps as Lord Broxtowe?
Point being made: where is the government? Osborne is in full Macavity mode. The vacuum since the vote has been shocking.
At work in his office on the details of the emergency budget I expect.
The really worrying thing is that for Osborne to rescue his credibility the UK economy needs to tank.
Nailed on by the look of it. Great odds available on Osborne for next Leader.
Never have we needed the master strategist more ;-)
You think he's going to try and deliberately crash the economy? And you would support that? And you think what we would need at such a time is a master strategist rather than someone who knows how to run the economy?
You've got to admire the Leave Tories' honesty - we've now had complete row-back from every major Leave commitment.........
I had not noticed any statement from a member of the Government on this. Could you please link to that or are you refering to people for LEAVE that are not actually in Cabinet or in a more junior role of Government?
There is no official spokesman for Leave so sadly we aren't going to get any definitive responses any time soon . However it is very clear that every Leaver I have seen interviewed is saying something different to what they were saying this time last week. Practically every Leaver has admitted that the £350m a week for the NHS was bollocks and Leave spokesman have been all over the shop regarding immigration. Interesting times
There were official Vote Leave spokespeople (which does not include Farage), eg the three who took part on the BBC Great Debate. On that they were specifically asked if they were talking of particular number for immigration and they said no they would not get into numbers they were talking about control.
Now people are reacting with mock horror that people have said they were talking about control and not numbers.
Maybe if pundits and Remainers were listening to what Leavers were actually saying, rather than what they pretended Leave was saying, they wouldn't be so surprised today now that they're suddenly listening.
Ah yes , the famous control which means no change.
But we are going to be in control of nothing changing, silly
"Not all the people who voted Leave are racist but all racists voted Leave." Sadly so true.
I have to profoundly disagree with that. I have an ethnically Asian friend who had a girlfriend from a different part of Asia ethnically speaking. It's fair to say that her parents were totally dismissive of him on grounds of race - something he was very bitter about. She's now married to someone from the same part of Asia. I suspect there are many people like that. Would they ALL have voted out? Of course not.
You did not answer Murali's point. All Leavers are not racists.But all racists are Leavers.
"Not all the people who voted Leave are racist but all racists voted Leave." Sadly so true.
I have to profoundly disagree with that. I have an ethnically Asian friend who had a girlfriend from a different part of Asia ethnically speaking. It's fair to say that her parents were totally dismissive of him on grounds of race - something he was very bitter about. She's now married to someone from the same part of Asia. I suspect there are many people like that. Would they ALL have voted out? Of course not.
You did not answer Murali's point. All Leavers are not racists.But all racists are Leavers.
I think he's incorrect because I'm sure some Remainers were racists too. I'm sure some racists decided to stay in the EU because they were worried about their house prices/jobs etc. Other factors can trump racism in people's minds. I also don't like this idea that racism is an issue for white people. It's an issue for everyone.
I voted Remain because I thought it was the better bet. I don't pretend that we're all pure and wholesome but politics means siding with people you don't necessarily like.
From what I have seen no opinion on free movement. The main thing is they want to avoid "cherry picking" and discourage others from doing the same thing.
In some ways, a complete break with no deal of any kind at this moment, reverting to WTO rules only, might be the best. Then, perhaps in 12-18 months, once the EU is beyond this "We can't give the UK a better deal than it has at the moment" attitude, we negotiate ab initio a deal that reflects the true mutual interests of both sides.
I strongly doubt that will happen, and there is no doubt that it would cause more short-term upheaval, but it could be a way for the UK to get the best long-term deal.
Maybe if pundits and Remainers were listening to what Leavers were actually saying, rather than what they pretended Leave was saying, they wouldn't be so surprised today now that they're suddenly listening.
I specifically said the following thingsad nauseam prior to the vote
* I characterised "controlled immigration" as a lie that pro-immigration politicians tell anti-immigration voters in order to get their votes * That LEAVE were talking about immigration controls not immigration limits * Consequently LEAVE were decieving their audience
Further, I specifically and repeatedly singled out Daniel Hannan, to the point that I had to stop doing so (because Casino_Royale had met him in person)
So: At least one REMAINER listened carefully to what the LEAVE campaigners were saying, and accurately pointed out the difference between what they were saying and the impression they were giving.
The UK, soon to be late UK, is definitely going nuts. It would be nice if we could take a few years out from the world to sort ourselves out, but we don't have time. So I hope we are only temporarily nuts - I will be very embarrassed in 6-12 months if I have to apologise to Mr Meeks and say he was right.
Oh cheer up ffs! Aston Martin are building a new factory in Wales, Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley aren't leaving, Sturgeon has been refused Scotland's continued EU membership without re-applying, and some people are making utter tits of themselves with a democratic petition to overturn a democratic referendum! I am sure the forces of IN aren't going to go quietly, but fate is not on their side. We didn't snag a truly miraculous win for nothing.
I've been out and about in "The Shires" this morning and everyone seems perfectly calm and happy.
The Bubble may be in meltdown but life goes on...
Afternoon GIN, you have to laugh at these Metropolitan panic merchants, they pretend they are smart and fund the whole of the UK but yet they are like headless chickens before anything whatsoever has happened, high time their pathetic bubble was well and truly burst.
Re: Bristol losing more days to rain than any other county ground. May be partly due to Bristol having a tidal range of 13 metres (43 feet), the second highest in the world, and a high water table. Boats in harbour would keel over at low tide unless their cargo was arranged and stored properly, hence the 19th century phrase "ship shape and Bristol fashion".
You learn something new every day.
Also explains the Floating Dock on the Avon, as ships got bigger they couldn't be beached without suffering damage, so the river was canalised and a basin was dug allowing ships to remain afloat
Just popping back to say that the Bristol Floating Harbour was built by my namesake's dad. And later altered / improved for (I think) larger ships by Brunel.
Sturgeon says that Scotland will veto UK leaving EU
Error by Sturgeon
I think she said Scotland "can" veto Brexit. Because legislation has to be passed in the parliaments of all three countries.
Odd - I have seen this reported - but also the widespread assumption that the PM *could* have made the Article 50 notification himself as a matter of prerogative. These cannot both be right.
Nick Eardley @nickeardleybbc 6m6 minutes ago Chair of Scottish PLP Lord Foulkes tells me there is "nobody" to take over position of shadow Scottish secretary
Too many of them , would mean Labour had to make a decision
Comments
Nick Eardley @nickeardleybbc 6m6 minutes ago
Chair of Scottish PLP Lord Foulkes tells me there is "nobody" to take over position of shadow Scottish secretary
Also am told that Sarko will win the republican nomination. JUPPE is too old and is saying nothing.
PS - I said at the start of this referendum this would be about how the Mrs Duffy type of voter, voted. That is why she has been my icon from the start.
To add, he's currently best-priced at 100/1 for next Labour leader with Stan James and 159/1 on Betfair.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3358109/Marine-Le-Pen-s-National-accuses-France-s-tactical-voters-intellectual-terrorism-ditch-bid-stop-taking-power-two-key-regions.html
Do we know what the view on the Norway model is of Boris, Gove, IDS etc ?
I suspect there is majority in parliament and in both main parties for a model as close to the status quo as possible. That would satisfy a majority in the country as well I suspect even though free movement would remain (possibly not to the same extent).
It also looks to me like all the Tory Brexiters are moving in that direction as well.
Of course I would be bigging this up as I have been banging on about it for months.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hammond-idUKKCN0ZC0AW
The party will come around to his position.
He said he wouldn't stand, but perhaps once Boris and May have fallen away... could he be persuaded?
"She's working class through and through and has a good touch with people from what I've seen. Tough (mad?) enough to be leader? Not sure."
Come on then, Frank, have a go. Even I would cough up £3 then. Sorry, Tim, but the EU is extinct, gone, joined the choir invisible.
Whether they would want to respond to Russian aggression is another issue.
Re: Bristol losing more days to rain than any other county ground. May be partly due to Bristol having a tidal range of 13 metres (43 feet), the second highest in the world, and a high water table. Boats in harbour would keel over at low tide unless their cargo was arranged and stored properly, hence the 19th century phrase "ship shape and Bristol fashion".
You learn something new every day.
EICIPM redux?
Isabel Hardman Verified account
@IsabelHardman
Funnily enough, for the first time in a while, no-one is talking about Alan Johnson as potential successor to Corbyn
I think a very important question going forwards is, how are the media going to address this?
The media are there to hold the politicians to account -if they stopped endlessly chasing the latest bit of greasy pole gossip and minor slip of the tongue and actually forced the politicians to explain their policies instead of this endless "well the other side will do this...." we would all be better served.
But the short answer to your question-No the campaign was rarely fought on the substantive issues.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
I've noticed how much more *ordinary* he seems now after landing in Stoke. If he wasn't called Tristram, he'd get less grief.
He was too kind on the issue of immigration not to press the issue of her being out of touch.
I'd lay 1/3 on the next leader being a leaver - it's no more certain than that, IMO.
Holland's being pushed towards an open primary rather than automatic renomination
I'm not sure I see that working..
.
Never have we needed the master strategist more ;-)
I voted Remain because I thought it was the better bet. I don't pretend that we're all pure and wholesome but politics means siding with people you don't necessarily like.
I strongly doubt that will happen, and there is no doubt that it would cause more short-term upheaval, but it could be a way for the UK to get the best long-term deal.
* I characterised "controlled immigration" as a lie that pro-immigration politicians tell anti-immigration voters in order to get their votes
* That LEAVE were talking about immigration controls not immigration limits
* Consequently LEAVE were decieving their audience
Further, I specifically and repeatedly singled out Daniel Hannan, to the point that I had to stop doing so (because Casino_Royale had met him in person)
So:
At least one REMAINER listened carefully to what the LEAVE campaigners were saying, and accurately pointed out the difference between what they were saying and the impression they were giving.
And later altered / improved for (I think) larger ships by Brunel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_Harbour
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Jessop
And now to re-lurk.