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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » … And the winners of the EUref polling race look set to be

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Geert Wilders has called for a referendum in the Netherlands on EU membership.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,812
    AndyJS said:
    Technically right though wasn't it? Didn't he describe himself as 70% for and 30% against the EU? Not close to the final proportion, but the others didn't make clear their own personal split.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    John_M said:

    corporeal said:

    Damn MI5 incompetence.

    Alternatively, won by the plucky British Biro! Take that Thames!
    Nothing British about the Biro - invented by a Hungarian, patented in Paris...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    One of the fundamentals was continued EU membership!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Final result from Cornwall: Remain 43.5%, Leave 56.5%.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Father forgive them, for they know not what they do.

    Come on. If this referendum says one thing (there are many) it's that the metropolitan elites should stop being so detached and sneering towards 'ordinary' people. The people have spoken. It's over. Now to fashion our future.
    Yes its over and its a disaster for the UK, and I am a realist. We are going to pay big time for this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,763
    AndyJS said:
    Let's be fair though, shrewdness and self-awareness have never exactly been her long suit.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,825

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016

    I like the fact the winning margin is over 1 million. 4% near enough is a decent enough margin for that issue not to raise its head.

    Good turnout too.

  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    People have demonstrated in the last 24 hours that they will vote for sovereignty over economic security.
    In England and Wales. Not Scotland.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261

    Pound now regaining against the dollar and Euro.

    Bank of England just announced taking all steps necessary
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    Actually it's not, it looks like it's already bottomed out.
    BoE at work?
    Who knows. My best guess is as I stated earlier. We haven't just leapt out of the EU screaming 'Freeeeeeddooooom!'. Whatever influences sterling value hasn't fundamentally changed since yesterday. But the markets are sometimes a thundering herd and the herd is spooked. They thought it was a nailed on Remain vote.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    Leicester only 51% Remain, surprising.

    Not a surprise to me.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Farron in blame mode

    yeah quite right. Voters! F'ing w'nkers...

    How grown up...
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,666
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:
    Technically right though wasn't it? Didn't he describe himself as 70% for and 30% against the EU? Not close to the final proportion, but the others didn't make clear their own personal split.
    Didn't he make a speech saying how crap the EU is and had to change? Why should you vote in after that? The Eurocrats made it 100% clear it isn't allowed to change.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    Only Westminster can call another Scottish independence Referendum. I think they are going to be a bit busy with other stuff for the next few years.

    The scots can hold a vote though. It won't be a 'referendum', but they could do it, and cause a whole heap of constitutional issues.
    If an independent Scotland applied to join the EU, that would include the Euro. Who'd vote for that?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Pound rallying now, $1.37
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Father forgive them, for they know not what they do.

    Come on. If this referendum says one thing (there are many) it's that the metropolitan elites should stop being so detached and sneering towards 'ordinary' people. The people have spoken. It's over. Now to fashion our future.
    It's not the metropolitan elites. It's the metropolis. The whole of inner London favoured Remain by 2:1 or more.

    If the part of the country that keeps the rest of the country afloat financially is going to be sabotaged by the country mice, there is going to have to be a new settlement giving London more autonomy and more control over its own finances.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    felix said:

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    No. It is rising already.
    Hmm. I think your understanding of these matters needs some work if you think we have reached the worst point economically.
    It will go up and down. At the moment it is off the bottom.

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,468

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    No. It is rising already.
    Dead cat bounce- the loss of the AAA will push it down next week. Equities are next in the firing line. Essentially- as predicted by som experts- the UK economy is going to be permanently devalued by about 15%. The recession begins now and I Think GDP will be off about 3% over the next year.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    You can't help yourself, can you?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    Pound rallying now, $1.37

    Dead cat bounce.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,239

    Pound now regaining against the dollar and Euro.

    Bank of England just announced taking all steps necessary
    Blocking the referendum result?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,050
    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Gibraltar, 95.9% Remain

    The Gibraltarians are facing real border problems.
    The Spanish haven't had a functioning government for about 6 months so it's bit rich of them to cause trouble with Gibraltar. Another election is being held on Sunday.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    People have demonstrated in the last 24 hours that they will vote for sovereignty over economic security.
    Isn't more a case of voting for personal economics (no immigrants taking their job) over national economics.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Pound now regaining against the dollar and Euro.

    Bank of England just announced taking all steps necessary
    Just now.

    Back last year Carney said the BoE had plans. He could have left it there, but then he joined in on project fear. Who knows how much credibility he has now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Oil prices are still low, Barnett still shovels billions into Scotland which makes free university and free prescriptions possible and Scotland has been in a union for 300 years with the UK not 40, the ties are much deeper. The unionist argument carries a positive message, the EU argument was "in is less shit than out". Even the name of the In campaign was slightly patronising, "stronger in" sends a message that these people believe the UK to be a weak country without the EU.

    Personally I'm in favour of Scottish independence, I think they deserve home rule and I'd like for them to achieve that goal. I just don't think being in or out of the EU makes a difference, especially given that Scotland would have been out if they voted for independence in 2014.

    The basic questions over currency and schengen haven't been answered either. Without the UK in the EU, there is no precedent for a full opt out of the Denmark are still in ERM II and Sweden, on a theoretical basis, have to join at some point.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
    I'm not seeing a hell of a lot of 'gracious in defeat' either.

    I'm not sure if I can resist the gravitational field of PB, but I'm going to try. Referendum is over, roll on the election.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    felix said:

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    No. It is rising already.
    Hmm. I think your understanding of these matters needs some work if you think we have reached the worst point economically.
    It will go up and down. At the moment it is off the bottom.

    Yes - not what you implied earlier - the coming weeks and months will require much steadier hands if it to hold anywhere near current levels and the existing drop will almost certainly impact on inflation as interest rate rises are all but impossible.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    Geert Wilders has called for a referendum in the Netherlands on EU membership.

    France? Spain? Italy? Greece? Denmark?

    This could domino.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Have we finally solved Bayes vs probabilistic for political betting ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261

    Pound now regaining against the dollar and Euro.

    Bank of England just announced taking all steps necessary
    Blocking the referendum result?
    Sky saying last time the Bank made a similar statement was in the 2008 crash
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995

    Sandpit said:

    Pound rallying now, $1.37

    Dead cat bounce.
    You'd expect that on Monday.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Cicero said:

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    No. It is rising already.
    Dead cat bounce- the loss of the AAA will push it down next week. Equities are next in the firing line. Essentially- as predicted by som experts- the UK economy is going to be permanently devalued by about 15%. The recession begins now and I Think GDP will be off about 3% over the next year.
    Bollocks.

    That is doom mongering Osborne hasn't even managed!
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Well at least we now know how prevalent racism is. Will Boris still prosecute Jo Cox's killer when he gets to Number Ten? Perhaps he'll hold a referendum :o

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Well that's it from me for a bit. I cast a vote for the losing side this time but that's how it goes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Have we finally solved Bayes vs probabilistic for political betting ?
    For this election, a probabilistic approach would definitely have been better throughout.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,820
    Wow good morning all.

    Lt: Ready
    Sgt: Sir, are we going for any particular toe or just the central mass?
    Lt: Anywhere Sgt Smith
    Sgt: Thank you Sir
    Lt: Aim
    Lt: Fire
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    That map looks brutal for unionists.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Sandpit said:

    Pound rallying now, $1.37

    Dead cat bounce.
    It's quite bouncy for a dead cat if I'm being honest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    AndyJS said:

    From the LA Times:

    "On Thursday British voters willfully walked off a cliff when they decided to leave the European Union. The “Brexit” victory is a defeat for Britain, Europe and the global economy.

    Tens of millions of Britons voted for isolation — to go it alone — rather than for cooperation. The European Union just lost a sixth of its economy, roughly akin to Florida and California seceding from the United States. The impact on the British economy could be catastrophic. Europe’s unified stance against a reemerging and aggressive Russia will be splintered."


    http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-klaas-dirsus-leave-victory-in-britain-20160623-snap-story.html

    Someone sounds upset.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,963
    Commiserations to the Remain campaign on a passionate, well-fought campaign.

    I hope, in the coming days, we can all work together to find an open, outward-looking solution for Britain's future relationship with the EU that works for us all.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2016
    t
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Oil prices are still low, Barnett still shovels billions into Scotland which makes free university and free prescriptions possible and Scotland has been in a union for 300 years with the UK not 40, the ties are much deeper. The unionist argument carries a positive message, the EU argument was "in is less shit than out". Even the name of the In campaign was slightly patronising, "stronger in" sends a message that these people believe the UK to be a weak country without the EU.

    Personally I'm in favour of Scottish independence, I think they deserve home rule and I'd like for them to achieve that goal. I just don't think being in or out of the EU makes a difference, especially given that Scotland would have been out if they voted for independence in 2014.

    The basic questions over currency and schengen haven't been answered either. Without the UK in the EU, there is no precedent for a full opt out of the Denmark are still in ERM II and Sweden, on a theoretical basis, have to join at some point.
    The polling suggested the vast majority of people voting Yes did not think Scotland would be out of the EU and the vast majority who voted No thought they would be if independence happened.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Unfortunately, the fact that the SNP had no answers on the key economic questions rather overshadowed the fact that they didn't have any answers for any of the other key questions either.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    No, I think you will find they were already upset about it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    Been awake for 25 hours. Need to sleep, but don't want to miss these extraordinary moments of history.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Lowlander said:

    Lowlander said:

    Congratulations to all the leave supporters and campaigners on here.

    Let's hope you were right.

    Don't care at all about Leave. But the Leave vote made me a lot of money while I voted Remain. And I get a new Scottish Ref too. Double Plus Good.
    Will you get another scottish ref? I thought the polls there were still strong for the unionists.
    Who knows. But Scotland votes Remain and the UK voted Leave so there is a much higher chance than yesterday.
    Yes, but the price of oil hasn't rocketed up, so there remains a huge hole in SNP's independence plan.

    It has gone up denominated in pounds.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,428
    AndyJS said:

    Well that's it from me for a bit. I cast a vote for the losing side this time but that's how it goes.

    Your contributions are always most welcome and your spreadsheet was fantastic. Take care :)
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    I think the best course of action for we Remainers is to shut up for quite a while. It's said the Russian War strategy is " to retreat to Moscow and wait for winter. " Well winter is coming for the Brexiters. They are the Masters now. As the incoherent mob of contradictions of their campaign unravels, as everything they stretched about stays the same or gets worse they'll be time enough to build new gallows and redirect the mob. But for now the best thing for Remainers is accept it's over, to shut up, to think and to wait.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    You can't help yourself, can you?
    It's true though.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Been awake for 25 hours. Need to sleep, but don't want to miss these extraordinary moments of history.

    Ditto. I am going to be so wrecked over the weekend. I hear hallucinations can be fun.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,666
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Oil prices are still low, Barnett still shovels billions into Scotland which makes free university and free prescriptions possible and Scotland has been in a union for 300 years with the UK not 40, the ties are much deeper. The unionist argument carries a positive message, the EU argument was "in is less shit than out". Even the name of the In campaign was slightly patronising, "stronger in" sends a message that these people believe the UK to be a weak country without the EU.

    Personally I'm in favour of Scottish independence, I think they deserve home rule and I'd like for them to achieve that goal. I just don't think being in or out of the EU makes a difference, especially given that Scotland would have been out if they voted for independence in 2014.

    The basic questions over currency and schengen haven't been answered either. Without the UK in the EU, there is no precedent for a full opt out of the Denmark are still in ERM II and Sweden, on a theoretical basis, have to join at some point.
    Given that Greenland, which is part of Denmark, is outside the EU, surely Scotland could remain in.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,277

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Or by Remain failing to counter it. Doesn't matter now. But failing to understand the problem or address it will produce more of the same. At some point voters bite back if they feel their leaders fail to represent them. Your comment is unfortunately too much of the tone that produced this result and will produce much worse unless it changes. Brussels and Westminster need to wake up very fast.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,239

    Cicero said:

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    No. It is rising already.
    Dead cat bounce- the loss of the AAA will push it down next week. Equities are next in the firing line. Essentially- as predicted by som experts- the UK economy is going to be permanently devalued by about 15%. The recession begins now and I Think GDP will be off about 3% over the next year.
    Bollocks.

    That is doom mongering Osborne hasn't even managed!
    Really? Imagine if Brown had won a majority in 2010. What happens next is that, only worse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    AndyJS said:

    Well that's it from me for a bit. I cast a vote for the losing side this time but that's how it goes.

    Don't be a stranger! We're entering an exciting political period!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    John_M said:

    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
    I'm not seeing a hell of a lot of 'gracious in defeat' either.

    I'm not sure if I can resist the gravitational field of PB, but I'm going to try. Referendum is over, roll on the election.
    I am gracious in defeat and you will see that in my posts overnight I have congratulated leave. Now is the time for us all to come together
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Just like those horrible dirty Frogs to vote for that prize bitch.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Oil prices are still low, Barnett still shovels billions into Scotland which makes free university and free prescriptions possible and Scotland has been in a union for 300 years with the UK not 40, the ties are much deeper. The unionist argument carries a positive message, the EU argument was "in is less shit than out". Even the name of the In campaign was slightly patronising, "stronger in" sends a message that these people believe the UK to be a weak country without the EU.

    Personally I'm in favour of Scottish independence, I think they deserve home rule and I'd like for them to achieve that goal. I just don't think being in or out of the EU makes a difference, especially given that Scotland would have been out if they voted for independence in 2014.

    The basic questions over currency and schengen haven't been answered either. Without the UK in the EU, there is no precedent for a full opt out of the Denmark are still in ERM II and Sweden, on a theoretical basis, have to join at some point.
    How does Scotland's trade with rUK compare to their trade with rump EU?

    Aside from the currency issue, I can see that being a major argument.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,201

    Farron in blame mode

    Farron has known how the wind was blowing for some time. He has been getting hammered by his constituents on the streets with W&L, who have been more than happy to approach him to argue about the subject, and whilst there have have been a few 'In' signs posted within the constituency, the absence of these in most of the usual LibDem sites has been very telling.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Well that's it from me for a bit. I cast a vote for the losing side this time but that's how it goes.

    Don't be a stranger! We're entering an exciting political period!
    I only meant for a few hours while I get some rest!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081

    Cicero said:

    Pong said:

    The pound will regain some of it's lost ground over the next 2 weeks.
    It's just as likely to lose more ground over the next 2 weeks.
    No. It is rising already.
    Dead cat bounce- the loss of the AAA will push it down next week. Equities are next in the firing line. Essentially- as predicted by som experts- the UK economy is going to be permanently devalued by about 15%. The recession begins now and I Think GDP will be off about 3% over the next year.
    Bollocks.

    That is doom mongering Osborne hasn't even managed!
    Let's wait and see. Time will tell as ever...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440

    John_M said:

    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
    I'm not seeing a hell of a lot of 'gracious in defeat' either.

    I'm not sure if I can resist the gravitational field of PB, but I'm going to try. Referendum is over, roll on the election.
    I am gracious in defeat and you will see that in my posts overnight I have congratulated leave. Now is the time for us all to come together
    Agreed!
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Been awake for 25 hours. Need to sleep, but don't want to miss these extraordinary moments of history.

    Enjoy your winnings, you and I were on different sides of the argument but hand in hand with the outcome.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Well that's it from me for a bit. I cast a vote for the losing side this time but that's how it goes.

    Don't be a stranger! We're entering an exciting political period!
    I only meant for a few hours while I get some rest!
    But still!!! ;)

    Ok, good!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,666

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Well at least we now know how prevalent racism is. Will Boris still prosecute Jo Cox's killer when he gets to Number Ten? Perhaps he'll hold a referendum :o

    Bollocks to that. The referendum result was because people are fed up with being called racists when they are not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,820
    edited June 2016
    Farage is an utter, utter cock.

    An effective campaigner. A consumate, perhaps brilliant campaigner.

    But an utter, utter cock.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Or by Remain failing to counter it. Doesn't matter now. But failing to understand the problem or address it will produce more of the same. At some point voters bite back if they feel their leaders fail to represent them. Your comment is unfortunately too much of the tone that produced this result and will produce much worse unless it changes. Brussels and Westminster need to wake up very fast.
    If you look at a map you will see that voters in my area feel just as I do. Londoners have been kidnapped from the EU against their very clear wishes.

    If the voters who are propped up by the tax transfers that voters in my area disburse to them aren't willing to engage with the views of voters in my area, voters in my area will feel a damn sight angrier with a damn sight more cause.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So in the end it was 52:48.

    Just the other way from what people were expecting.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    I fear talk of reconciliation is premature. It's going to get worse before its get better after such a bilious campaign.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
    I'm not seeing a hell of a lot of 'gracious in defeat' either.

    I'm not sure if I can resist the gravitational field of PB, but I'm going to try. Referendum is over, roll on the election.
    I am gracious in defeat and you will see that in my posts overnight I have congratulated leave. Now is the time for us all to come together
    Good morning Big_G. Thank you. Momentous times tonight.

    I don't think it's going to be easy to come together - the country is incredibly polarised. We're pretty clear on what the various parts of the country want, but they all want different things. Glad I'm not a politician.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,440
    No wonder the pound is tanking, Corbyn's under threat! :D
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    murali_s said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    You can't help yourself, can you?
    It's true though.
    I'm surprised you're still living in a country where the majority is overtly racist.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Been awake for 25 hours. Need to sleep, but don't want to miss these extraordinary moments of history.

    It is, is it not? Did you get your vote in? I do hope so.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,995

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Oil prices are still low, Barnett still shovels billions into Scotland which makes free university and free prescriptions possible and Scotland has been in a union for 300 years with the UK not 40, the ties are much deeper. The unionist argument carries a positive message, the EU argument was "in is less shit than out". Even the name of the In campaign was slightly patronising, "stronger in" sends a message that these people believe the UK to be a weak country without the EU.

    Personally I'm in favour of Scottish independence, I think they deserve home rule and I'd like for them to achieve that goal. I just don't think being in or out of the EU makes a difference, especially given that Scotland would have been out if they voted for independence in 2014.

    The basic questions over currency and schengen haven't been answered either. Without the UK in the EU, there is no precedent for a full opt out of the Denmark are still in ERM II and Sweden, on a theoretical basis, have to join at some point.
    How does Scotland's trade with rUK compare to their trade with rump EU?

    Aside from the currency issue, I can see that being a major argument.
    Yes, well part of the reason Leave was successful is that our trade with the EU is falling already. People may not realise, but it's something you can feel.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,239
    The is no time for a Maoist, as Brown might have said.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,963

    John_M said:

    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
    I'm not seeing a hell of a lot of 'gracious in defeat' either.

    I'm not sure if I can resist the gravitational field of PB, but I'm going to try. Referendum is over, roll on the election.
    I am gracious in defeat and you will see that in my posts overnight I have congratulated leave. Now is the time for us all to come together
    Good for you, Big G.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Leavers seeking the country to unite after the decision might have thought a bit more about the aftermath while conducting their campaign.

    Include me out. Pursue your mad agenda obtained by pandering to xenophobia by yourselves. I see no reason why I should assist in such a folly.

    Because I believe you are a democrat and a patriot.

    Everyone has a duty to serve the public will - we should all do our best to seek the best outcome for the country within the framework of what the people have decided

    This morning I'm nervous, but excited.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Just like those horrible dirty Frogs to vote for that prize bitch.
    I hope for the sake of the future that you are still in a celebratory mood - because for those of us directly affected negatively today by yesterday's vote - now is the time for statesmanship and calm, sensible negotiations to limit the collateral damage.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    TOPPING said:

    Farage is an utter, utter cock.

    An effective campaigner. A consumate, perhaps brillian campaigner.

    But an utter, utter cock.

    He's calling for David Cameron to go but in truth he should stand down himself.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,030
    Just woken up and seen the result. I'm a bit sad but it's what absolutely what I expected. Leavers - everything that happens now is down to you. I hope you know what you're doing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,727
    Gadfly said:

    Farron in blame mode

    Farron has known how the wind was blowing for some time. He has been getting hammered by his constituents on the streets with W&L, who have been more than happy to approach him to argue about the subject, and whilst there have have been a few 'In' signs posted within the constituency, the absence of these in most of the usual LibDem sites has been very telling.
    There will have to be a big policy rethink for the LD’s. Europhilia has been a major plank for a long while.
    Maybe they should take a look at the policies of the residual Liberal Party.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    John_M said:

    Pauly said:

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    Can you stop belittling half of the british people? If I'm honest you come across a sore loser and it only makes me pity how pathetic you're being.
    Magnanimous in victory.
    I'm not seeing a hell of a lot of 'gracious in defeat' either.

    I'm not sure if I can resist the gravitational field of PB, but I'm going to try. Referendum is over, roll on the election.
    I am gracious in defeat and you will see that in my posts overnight I have congratulated leave. Now is the time for us all to come together
    Well said.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,261
    Looks like big trouble rising for Corbyn
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Gadfly said:

    Farron in blame mode

    Farron has known how the wind was blowing for some time. He has been getting hammered by his constituents on the streets with W&L, who have been more than happy to approach him to argue about the subject, and whilst there have have been a few 'In' signs posted within the constituency, the absence of these in most of the usual LibDem sites has been very telling.
    There will have to be a big policy rethink for the LD’s. Europhilia has been a major plank for a long while.
    Maybe they should take a look at the policies of the residual Liberal Party.
    No sign of that from Mr Farron this morning.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Anyone know what time the plans for the EU army will be unveiled?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Leavers seeking the country to unite after the decision might have thought a bit more about the aftermath while conducting their campaign.

    Include me out. Pursue your mad agenda obtained by pandering to xenophobia by yourselves. I see no reason why I should assist in such a folly.

    Because I believe you are a democrat and a patriot.

    Everyone has a duty to serve the public will - we should all do our best to seek the best outcome for the country within the framework of what the people have decided

    This morning I'm nervous, but excited.
    I respect the referendum decision.

    I see no reason at all why I should help implement a decision that I believe to be mad and to have been engineered through disgraceful tactics. Those that were hellbent on this crazy course of action can get on with it, but I shall lean against a wall watching their exertions.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488


    So in the end it was 52:48.

    Just the other way from what people were expecting.

    Exactly what the EU.Leave poll said sampled 21-22 June. I believe it was Survation?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,820

    Commiserations to the Remain campaign on a passionate, well-fought campaign.

    I hope, in the coming days, we can all work together to find an open, outward-looking solution for Britain's future relationship with the EU that works for us all.

    Very happy for you @Casino_Royale
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Jonathan said:

    I fear talk of reconciliation is premature. It's going to get worse before its get better after such a bilious campaign.

    Cameron will be gone very quickly - possibly by this time to-morrow. The betting value is for Labour to win fewer seats than the SNP at the next election - no later than October, I'd say.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158
    TOPPING said:

    Farage is an utter, utter cock.

    An effective campaigner. A consumate, perhaps brillian campaigner.

    But an utter, utter cock.

    I don't know if Nigel in his heart of hearts wanted this. At least not yet. It is pretty much the end of UKIP, or it seems so to me. He'll have bloody good fun makinf a speech about it in the EU parliament though.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    TOPPING said:

    Farage is an utter, utter cock.

    An effective campaigner. A consumate, perhaps brilliant campaigner.

    But an utter, utter cock.

    I will not be disagreeing with you there.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,763

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    So how can the Scots avoid calling a referendum (if indeed they don't want one?) Hold it tomorrow and they'd win, presumably.

    I doubt they would. The fundamentals for Scotland haven't changed.
    How have they not? People will vote for some level of economic turmoil, if they think it is acceptable. They might now have changed their minds on how much they are willing to accept.
    Oil prices are still low, Barnett still shovels billions into Scotland which makes free university and free prescriptions possible and Scotland has been in a union for 300 years with the UK not 40, the ties are much deeper. The unionist argument carries a positive message, the EU argument was "in is less shit than out". Even the name of the In campaign was slightly patronising, "stronger in" sends a message that these people believe the UK to be a weak country without the EU.

    Personally I'm in favour of Scottish independence, I think they deserve home rule and I'd like for them to achieve that goal. I just don't think being in or out of the EU makes a difference, especially given that Scotland would have been out if they voted for independence in 2014.

    The basic questions over currency and schengen haven't been answered either. Without the UK in the EU, there is no precedent for a full opt out of the Denmark are still in ERM II and Sweden, on a theoretical basis, have to join at some point.
    Given that Greenland, which is part of Denmark, is outside the EU, surely Scotland could remain in.
    Greenland is a territory of Denmark, not part of it. It's equivalent to Man, not Scotland.

    Something might be worked out on those lines for Gibraltar though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,236

    This what happens when people in the London bubble forget that people from the provinces don't really care what happens to London and its banks.

    Yes for good or bad the unthinking to****rs brought it on themselves, hoist by their own very expensive petards.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,417

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/746212545262850048

    Can't blame her. If pandering to xenophobia worked here, there must be a decent chance it would work in France too.

    It's statements like that which lost you the referendum.

    Most people are fed up with the pointless name calling.
    Uncomfortable truths hurt.

    This referendum was won by Leave by making people scared and angry about immigration.
    Or by Remain failing to counter it. Doesn't matter now. But failing to understand the problem or address it will produce more of the same. At some point voters bite back if they feel their leaders fail to represent them. Your comment is unfortunately too much of the tone that produced this result and will produce much worse unless it changes. Brussels and Westminster need to wake up very fast.
    If you look at a map you will see that voters in my area feel just as I do. Londoners have been kidnapped from the EU against their very clear wishes.

    If the voters who are propped up by the tax transfers that voters in my area disburse to them aren't willing to engage with the views of voters in my area, voters in my area will feel a damn sight angrier with a damn sight more cause.
    Your first paragraph could be used in any election where one region votes differently to another. We are one nation and this is how democracy works.

    Don't get me wrong, although I am a long standing Eurosceptic I was a remain voter in this referendum and this result does cause me a great deal of nervousness about my personal situation. In many ways I am gobsmacked at the result. But I have to accept it and try and keep calm and carry on.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    Yes, remiss of me not to congratulate the Leavers on here. For some of you this must be an extraordinary, emotional, intensely personal moment. What you have dreamed of for so many years has come to pass. How wonderful that must feel. I envy you!

    It's been fun debating with you over these last few weeks and I have learned a lot. We will continue to disagree, but let's remember we all want the same thing: what is best for the country. I do think your side now has to take control of the situation and lead, we will need that in the coming months and years. As previously stated - I really hope you're right!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm loving the way that the worst fall in sterling ever against the dollar is being shrugged off on the site as a technical correction.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,158

    Father forgive them, for they know not what they do.

    Come on. If this referendum says one thing (there are many) it's that the metropolitan elites should stop being so detached and sneering towards 'ordinary' people. The people have spoken. It's over. Now to fashion our future.
    It's not the metropolitan elites. It's the metropolis. The whole of inner London favoured Remain by 2:1 or more.

    If the part of the country that keeps the rest of the country afloat financially is going to be sabotaged by the country mice, there is going to have to be a new settlement giving London more autonomy and more control over its own finances.
    You really are being quite grotesque.
This discussion has been closed.