Would Gibraltar be so keen on the EU if part of the deal was that they had to become part of Spain, I wonder?
Their concern is that if we leave the EU they may have to become part of Spain.
Those of us of a certain age remember the border being closed by Franco for almost two decades. Food rationed and brought in on ships from Morocco. There was a real fear here that it'd happen again.
If Keunssberg is right, combined with the low turnout in Scotland (Clacks was 67% compared to 89% in Indyref) then this might be over after Sunderland declares.
If Clack has a 2% higher turnout than Sunderland then how does that make it over?
60% Leave in Sunderland would be serious stuff. But turnout doesn't look massive. I have done no canvassing of my own but you get a sense that things on the ground are somehow different to the polls.
well they were where i was canvassing tonight but we shall see
Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.
I think it was an odd swing to Labour, wasn't it? Reread the May thread last night, and Rod commented that it was weird.
Yes, but the Curtice exit poll actually predicted that the North East would overperform for Labour.
Of course tonight we have a much flimsier basis for local expectations.
LOL. Now there's an interesting autonomic response.
Farage comes on Sky News and I immediately hit the mute button :-)
And yes I am the most leavering leaver in Britain.
No, Mr. Tyndall you just don't like the bloke. He has taken UKIP from nowhere to 4 million votes at the last GE and did get the party to win the last European Parliament elections. You might not like him, fair go, but please do not pretend in UKIP terms he has failed.
LOL. Now there's an interesting autonomic response.
Farage comes on Sky News and I immediately hit the mute button :-)
And yes I am the most leavering leaver in Britain.
I get the sense if you put three Eurosceptics in a room you'd get five arguments.
There are many ways in which one can dislike the EU . I think a good chunk of the Leavers on here are not particularly bothered about immigration qua immigration.
I didn't exactly "crawl over broken glass" to vote LEAVE today, but expended about 5 hours and a Virgin West Coast return train fare between London and Coventry, and nearly got soaked exiting my local Tube station. Nearly
If Keunssberg is right, combined with the low turnout in Scotland (Clacks was 67% compared to 89% in Indyref) then this might be over after Sunderland declares.
If Clack has a 2% higher turnout than Sunderland then how does that make it over?
Remain needs Scotland to vote heavily. Losing such a huge amount compared to Indyref is bad news for Remain. There's no other way to see it.
Looks like a big Leave win in Soonderland. That may change the evening's narrative. But worth remembering - if I do remember correctly - the NE was a bit atypical in the GE in terms of swing away from Labour.
Sunderland swung toward Labour at the GE.
Sunderland was atypical in 2010, swinging bigger Tory than later on in the night.
Is that right? My recollection was that the three Sunderland results as a whole were similar to the national swing. They did diverge from each other though, I put that down to the calculation of the notionals being a bit out.
LOL. Now there's an interesting autonomic response.
Farage comes on Sky News and I immediately hit the mute button :-)
And yes I am the most leavering leaver in Britain.
I get the sense if you put three Eurosceptics in a room you'd get five arguments.
Of course you would, Mr. Fall, it is only in places like North Korea or the Conservative Party, as Mr. Cameron would like it to be, are alternative views not allowed.
LOL. Now there's an interesting autonomic response.
Farage comes on Sky News and I immediately hit the mute button :-)
And yes I am the most leavering leaver in Britain.
No, Mr. Tyndall you just don't like the bloke. He has taken UKIP from nowhere to 4 million votes at the last GE and did get the party to win the last European Parliament elections. You might not like him, fair go, but please do not pretend in UKIP terms he has failed.
I didn't say that. I just don't think I am unique amongst fanatical Leave supporters who think Farage is now a liability if we want to attract swing voters.
I was serious when I said my response was automatic. There was no thought in it. He just repels me these days.
Worth remembering when Sunderland declares that UKIP won about 20% across the three seats last year.
And Labour got 50% - pro remain. Your point?
The point is that UKIP's share there was half as high again as their national share. Yes, Labour's was too but I'd regard the UKIP share as more indicative of an areas innate Euroscepticism than Labour's.
Remember there will be 110% turn out in parts of London... ;-)
Oh God. The establishment rigging the UK to remain in the EU because of Muslim election fraud would be every swivel eyed conspiracy theory rolled into one.
LOL. Now there's an interesting autonomic response.
Farage comes on Sky News and I immediately hit the mute button :-)
And yes I am the most leavering leaver in Britain.
I get the sense if you put three Eurosceptics in a room you'd get five arguments.
Of course you would, Mr. Fall, it is only in places like North Korea or the Conservative Party, as Mr. Cameron would like it to be, are alternative views not allowed.
Narrative fairly negative at the moment. How soon till the betting crossover? As I intimated earlier, my feeling at the polling station here in North Birmingham this afternoon was definitely that Leave was in the air, and didn't tally at all with the feeling online that Remain was going to do it. If the polls are wrong again and have fooled the punters again, that'll be absolutely remarkable.
I didn't exactly "crawl over broken glass" to vote LEAVE today, but expended about 5 hours and a Virgin West Coast return train fare between London and Coventry, and nearly got soaked exiting my local Tube station. Nearly
I wondered if you'd had to swim. D'you remember the ad for Milk Tray?
Worth remembering when Sunderland declares that UKIP won about 20% across the three seats last year.
And Labour got 50% - pro remain. Your point?
The point is that UKIP's share there was half as high again as their national share. Yes, Labour's was too but I'd regard the UKIP share as more indicative of an areas innate Euroscepticism than Labour's.
Isn't UKIP share in very Labour areas at least partly indicative of people's unwillingness to entertain voting Conservative?
Comments
The way he treated Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader was appalling.
The fact his 'political hero' Tony Blair - all spin and little substance - has been so sidelined during this campaign seems lost on him.
Of course tonight we have a much flimsier basis for local expectations.
Needs to be 55 according to Andy's ss
Interesting....
Edit: now bouncing back, but...
It's on the verge as being as interesting as differential front end grip.
paraphrasing that Francis Lee goal with Barry Davies commentary!
Oops, sorry that requires a 50.5-49.5 result either way.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
I was serious when I said my response was automatic. There was no thought in it. He just repels me these days.
Once again though, as in 1992 and 2015, it won't be the margin or error that matters; it'll be the error in predicting the result.