politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it bu
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This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges)
June 23, 2016
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.0 -
Someone at Clacton on Sea count saying votes 20:1 Leave.0
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Completely agree. It might all prove to be a damp squib, but I think there's a fair chance that the ramifications will run on and on, whatever the result. Still enjoying the momentGravitation said:Whatever your political persuasion, just try to soak this all in. We're watching history unfold which will be re-watched and debated for decades. General Elections go down in history but this is something else.
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Still a huge range of possible outcomes possible. No-one has a clue...0
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That'll be why GBPUSD and European stock markets went through the roof today.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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But what's happening in Idaho?0
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At least (unlike the GE) I haven't heard a single politician say "I don't want to speculate".0
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No he's saying if the sampling in Sunderland is accurate (Leave 54%), then Remain have won (nationally)GIN1138 said:
LOL! If true it's a landslide for REMAIN.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
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Welsh BBC guy saying that the Labour Remain vote looks a bit stronger than expected.0
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Thanks very much Philip.Philip_Thompson said:
Between 'after midnight' and 12:30amtyson said:Can someone give us an indication of what we need to project from Sunderland. Yours very much in advance and thanks
EDIT: Sorry misread. I believe "par" is Leave 55.
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Are the rumourmongers getting their Remains and Leaves confused?Pulpstar said:
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges)
June 23, 2016
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.0 -
That will be why the city boys have been piling on.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That's extraordinary. Leave needed to be getting 53-54 just to be on track for a draw. Anything close to 60 would be extremely interesting.HYUFD said:
Then again, with so much other noise, who knows!0 -
Dan Hodges or Kieran Pedley - who to believe hmmmmmmmmmmmm0
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I might be wrong but if sunderland is getting later and later it indicates that rather a lot of people have voted.0
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Ridiculous amount of noise, can't wait until we get some solid figures.0
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Right. Thanks.alex. said:
No he's saying if the sampling in Sunderland is accurate (Leave 54%), then Remain have won (nationally)GIN1138 said:
LOL! If true it's a landslide for REMAIN.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
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Possibly some pundits getting Newcastle and Sunderland mixed up?Wanderer said:
Are the rumourmongers getting their Remains and Leaves confused?Pulpstar said:
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges)
June 23, 2016
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.0 -
My 65/35 prediction could be on!Pulpstar said:
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges)
June 23, 2016
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.0 -
This is Dan Hodges lolWanderer said:
Are the rumourmongers getting their Remains and Leaves confused?Pulpstar said:
This is from the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges)
June 23, 2016
If the sampling from Sunderland is correct, Remain have won. And by a good margin.0 -
Have they worked out that Gibraltar isn't an island yet?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
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Coming up on £70m matched on Betfair.0
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Everybody shouts jump,as Kay stands on the balcony.0
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I can't see anything other than a huge Remain landslide in Newcastle upon Tyne.0
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Has someone done a spreadsheet/page with what the par is for each council stripping out the Don't Knows?0
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Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.0
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tyson old chap - all three spreadsheets give locations based on nationwide 50/50. So any figures quoted as par will be projecting for 50/50.tyson said:0 -
Gibraltar result coming in 10-15 minutes.0
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With their £250 a day pretty young girls doing exit polls outside Primrose HillFrancisUrquhart said:
That will be why the city boys have been piling on.TheScreamingEagles said:
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UKIP got twice their national share (c. 25%) in Sunderland in 2015. A 6% lead to Leave (53%) would not be a good result.Gravitation said:
That's extraordinary. Leave needed to be getting 53-54 just to be on track for a draw. Anything close to 60 would be extremely interesting.HYUFD said:
Then again, with so much other noise, who knows!
Realistically, we need to be above 55% to get excited.0 -
Dear god man it's all we have to go on for hours.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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What with the anti-establishment mood might people lie to the exit pollsters - particularly if it's a bank.
Anyway all this noise suggests obsessive attention seeking to me cough Farage cough.0 -
I'm now seeing estimated t'out 69.4% on Sky0
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But some of the "experts" have supposedly worked out how Remain-friendly each area is, based on demographics.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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Sunderland plus Newcastle probably looks quite like the UK as a whole.Gallowgate said:I can't see anything other than a huge Remain landslide in Newcastle upon Tyne.
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Imagine if it's wrong...I don't fancy being the pollster when the city boys comes knocking.rcs1000 said:
That'll be why GBPUSD and European stock markets went through the roof today.TheScreamingEagles said:
I.somehow doubt the conversation will go "OK old chap we lost £100 millions on your slightly inaccurate poll, any chance of a refund?"0 -
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James Forsyth @JGForsyth
A Leave source tells me that, for what it is worth, the polls by the financial institutions are split on what the result it0 -
ITV now claiming 60/40 Leave in Sunderland. That would be VERY interesting.0
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We'll Newcastle too. The best of both worlds.TOPPING said:
Dear god man it's all we have to go on for hours.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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WHY THE FUDGING OBSESSION WITH GIBRALTAR????????????0
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How come the rich and powerful get to waltz back into high profile gigs post-jail, while the working class have their employment prospects diminished for life?Scott_P said:@chrisshipitv: Andy Coulson will be on @ITV shortly - the former No10 Communications boss. His first TV interview since prison. With @tombradby
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LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:Proper banter
https://twitter.com/huwzat/status/7460992574977515520 -
Which, after all the talk of huge turnout, isn't much more than a GE...RodCrosby said:I'm now seeing estimated t'out 69.4% on Sky
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Most pundits/experts seem to agree that it would vote around 46-47% Remain if the overall result was 50/50.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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LOL! I bet it's closer than thatAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone at Clacton on Sea count saying votes 20:1 Leave.
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It's apparently a Remain landslide among Guardianista Mackems. ;-)GIN1138 said:
LOL! If true it's a landslide for REMAIN.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Someone from the Guardian suggesting Remain have won Sunderland.
Very confusing picture so far!0 -
Yes, that's what I was saying earlier - I think Labour did recover some WWC Remain support in the last fortnight. Faisalislam says Remain sources claim two reasons for a late swing to Remain:Danny565 said:Welsh BBC guy saying that the Labour Remain vote looks a bit stronger than expected.
1. Status quo reversion on economy
2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics
I think Leave will still well in WWC areas (which should show up in Sunderland), but perhaps not as clear-cut as it looked two weeks ago.0 -
There was a camera crew outside one polling station I passed today (didn't see the channel).FrankBooth said:What with the anti-establishment mood might people lie to the exit pollsters - particularly if it's a bank.
Anyway all this noise suggests obsessive attention seeking to me cough Farage cough.
The immediate instinct was that had I been voting, to not tell them what I have voted for.0 -
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Well, it is an island after all....KentRising said:WHY THE FUDGING OBSESSION WITH GIBRALTAR????????????
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It's worth billions or diddly-squat depending on which way you look at it.Casino_Royale said:James Forsyth @JGForsyth
A Leave source tells me that, for what it is worth, the polls by the financial institutions are split on what the result it0 -
Evening all!
Have remain walked it yet?
Oh... there's no official exit poll?
Damn!0 -
That doesn't tally with a 25% UKIP share at GE2015. I reckon we need to be in the high 50s.AndyJS said:
Most pundits/experts seem to agree that it would vote around 46-47% Remain if the overall result was 50/50.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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67% turnout in Clacks. Was over 89% in Indyref. Scotland is going to hurt Remain with these turnout numbers.0
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Come on Scilly Isles - you've only got just over 1000 votes to count!0
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I am livid I missed out on the 15/1 on Betfair Exchange earlier. I wandered away from the computer to speak to someone and missed it. Covering my Remain bet by backing Leave at 8/1 has eaten into my profits.0
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Returning officer walking on the stage in Gibraltar now.
Result in the next few minutes.
http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live0 -
Sure, and they might be right, as far as such analysis goes. But Sunderland won't tell you if students in the South East have got their act together, or if blue-rinse Tories have looked into the abyss and thought 'Hmm, maybe not...', or thought 'What the hell, let's jump!'Danny565 said:
But some of the "experts" have supposedly worked out how Remain-friendly each area is, based on demographics.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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Mothers and daughters out on the lash together in leopard skin short skirts?rcs1000 said:
Sunderland plus Newcastle probably looks quite like the UK as a whole.Gallowgate said:I can't see anything other than a huge Remain landslide in Newcastle upon Tyne.
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If leave somehow win without markets anticipating it traders are in for a rooooough Friday. For some reason I get a feeling that postal votes will play a massive part in this.0
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i know this is fun but its also slightly ridiculous. everyone's desperately clinging on to the word of this or that tom dick or harry. And Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:ITV now claiming 60/40 Leave in Sunderland. That would be VERY interesting.
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Jesus why did I just put 10p a minute on Sunderland 0
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Like having a PM leading the campaign to secure Britain's place in the EU, I am sure Leave voting Tories will be delighted with that!Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is the SNP was already the party of government in Scotland and was getting things done while Labour were in opposition.HYUFD said:
Yes, as Scottish Labour Yes voters so happily trotted back to Labour with their tails between their legs after No won indyref! I doubt it will be on the same scale but 52 48 Remain will encourage UKIP to try and copy the SNPPhilip_Thompson said:
There is zero reason why Tory Leave voters should leave the party. There's been a vote and all sides now need to respect the result and move on, whatever the result is.HYUFD said:
57% of Tory voters voted Leave according to Yougov, not much good if the Tories get a Remainer as leader and are left with just 43% of their own voters.Starfall said:More Eurosceptics deserting the Tory part is presumably very good for Tory pro-Europeans in getting a Remainer as thier next leader.
UKIP are a party of Douglas Carswell in Westminster while the Tories are in government and getting things done.0 -
Starfall said:
Mothers and daughters out on the lash together in leopard skin short skirts?rcs1000 said:
Sunderland plus Newcastle probably looks quite like the UK as a whole.Gallowgate said:I can't see anything other than a huge Remain landslide in Newcastle upon Tyne.
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Par would be about 56% Remain.Gallowgate said:I can't see anything other than a huge Remain landslide in Newcastle upon Tyne.
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Well if it's a clear win for either side you will be able to see that in the Sunderland result. The fact we're potentially looking at a result that's unclear sets us up for an interesting night to say the least.Richard_Nabavi said:Sunderland, by itself, won't tell you that much, whatever the result. It's hardly representative of the UK as a whole.
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And better for Leave maybe.brokenwheel said:
Which, after all the talk of huge turnout, isn't much more than a GE...RodCrosby said:I'm now seeing estimated t'out 69.4% on Sky
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Yes, he is a well known deep cover operative. He has lead a deliberately shit life for 52 years, waiting to be activated in the event of an EU, referendum. Far sighted blighters these MI 5 Johnnies.John_N4 said:Any word yet on whether Thomas Mair was known to MI5?
Let's not hold our breath waiting for any of the lickspittle media to ask that question.
It would be a legitimate question if he were suspected of being signed up to Daesh; it's a legitimate question whoever he is, given that we know from what he said in court that he's political.
Not much discussion either on the Sun's involvement of the queen in the referendum debate.0 -
Would be quite amusing for the city boys to have egg on their faces.FrankMuller said:If leave somehow win without markets anticipating it traders are in for a rooooough Friday. For some reason I get a feeling that postal votes will play a massive part in this.
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They're first...KentRising said:WHY THE FUDGING OBSESSION WITH GIBRALTAR????????????
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The Scottish elections in May were like this. Claim and counter claim about every constituency. Everyone thought they had won Dumfries at one point.JennyFreeman said:
i know this is fun but its also slightly ridiculous. everyone's desperately clinging on to the word of this or that tom dick or harry. And Dan Hodges.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:ITV now claiming 60/40 Leave in Sunderland. That would be VERY interesting.
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Paul BrandVerified account
@PaulBrandITV
Remain sources in Sunderland telling me they vote divides something like 60-40 in favour of LEAVE. #ITVEURef0 -
well theres one obvious answer ;-) I wonder if she lives in Islington.PlatoSaid said:
How on Earth did she confuse Trevor Phillips with Chuka?!?!DavidL said:Kay Burley wandering around the room asking who people are. Misidentifying members of Parliament. Never seen anything quite like it by a political correspondent. Totally embarrassing.
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@iainmartin1: Fellow Brexiteers, as a Scotland fan I can help here. There is no such thing as a moral victory. A win is a win, a loss is a loss.0
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Are you still BeLeaving Sunil?Sunil_Prasannan said:Evening all!
Have remain walked it yet?
Oh... there's no official exit poll?
Damn!
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The jokes on this thread are fantastic.williamglenn said:
It's worth billions or diddly-squat depending on which way you look at it.Casino_Royale said:James Forsyth @JGForsyth
A Leave source tells me that, for what it is worth, the polls by the financial institutions are split on what the result it0 -
BBC reporting Blaenau Gwent is 60/40 for Leave.0
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While a pair of Tories led the Leave campaign too, which I hadn't expected two years ago.HYUFD said:
Like having a PM leading the campaign to secure Britain's place in the EU, I am sure Leave voting Tories will be delighted with that!Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is the SNP was already the party of government in Scotland and was getting things done while Labour were in opposition.HYUFD said:
Yes, as Scottish Labour Yes voters so happily trotted back to Labour with their tails between their legs after No won indyref! I doubt it will be on the same scale but 52 48 Remain will encourage UKIP to try and copy the SNPPhilip_Thompson said:
There is zero reason why Tory Leave voters should leave the party. There's been a vote and all sides now need to respect the result and move on, whatever the result is.HYUFD said:
57% of Tory voters voted Leave according to Yougov, not much good if the Tories get a Remainer as leader and are left with just 43% of their own voters.Starfall said:More Eurosceptics deserting the Tory part is presumably very good for Tory pro-Europeans in getting a Remainer as thier next leader.
UKIP are a party of Douglas Carswell in Westminster while the Tories are in government and getting things done.
The fact is that the Tories have led both Leave and Remain. If you want to lead the way then be a Tory, if you want to be a follower go with anyone else, if you want your vote to be as useful as chocolate fireguard then vote purple or orange...0 -
Maybe they are having trouble with the gas lights...they haven't got electricity there yet have they?Gravitation said:Come on Scilly Isles - you've only got just over 1000 votes to count!
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I think that's pretty good for Leave. Would suggest perhaps 52:48 to Leave nationwide.bigjohnowls said:
Paul BrandVerified account
@PaulBrandITV
Remain sources in Sunderland telling me they vote divides something like 60-40 in favour of LEAVE. #ITVEURef0 -
Paul Martinez the Returning Officer giving the result nowGeoffM said:Returning officer walking on the stage in Gibraltar now.
Result in the next few minutes.
http://www.gbc.gi/tv/watch-live0 -
Gibraltar!!!0
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Isn't the 54-60 spread just the "Labour samples" <--> "postal vote estimate"?Casino_Royale said:
Means it's probably around 55/56 assuming that postal votes are around 30% of the total0 -
Gibraltar result!0
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BBC2's choice of film?
'Defiance'!0 -
North Korea would be proud of that result from Gib!0
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Is it just GeoffM that voted Leave in Gib?0
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Good news for Leave, but Sunderland has a very large WWC vote compared to the rest of the country.bigjohnowls said:
Paul BrandVerified account
@PaulBrandITV
Remain sources in Sunderland telling me they vote divides something like 60-40 in favour of LEAVE. #ITVEURef0
