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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the polls close Nigel Farage says Remain will edge it bu

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited June 2016
    I backed leave earlier today to a few 10s of pounds. Even as a Leave voter I always felt Remain had the edge, but the odds on Leave, given the uncertainty of the outcome, were just too big.
  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    Been shown up by IDS?

    Come out with a preposterous budget that the HoC promised not to pass?

    Among Leavers I know him calling them "economically illiterate" and releasing the £4,300 household loss number went down badly. However, I don't see that as anywhere near as bad as Cameron using a dead woman as a political pawn within 48 hours of her death.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    tyson said:

    saddened said:


    SouthamObserverParticipant.

    Imaginary like button pressed.
    My apology previously was sincere

    Tyson, I've no doubt it was. I'm not sure why you needed to say it again. It's no longer an issue.

    Enjoy the rest of the show.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    That's what I was thinking.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Lots of right wing posters on here don't seem to realise how successful their policies have been for the last 35 years. They think the country still has large amounts of council housing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,852
    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,413
    Are there really that few counting areas expected to go remain?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    Been shown up by IDS?

    Come out with a preposterous budget that the HoC promised not to pass?

    IDS has never shown anyone up since Pirbright, if at all.

    The budget may or may not have been preposterous but do you suppose it was GO acting alone, as a rogue, or as part of the overall campaign?
    He made more unwarranted cuts to a flagship policy at the same time as slashing corp tax and cutting mc tax bill.

    And he blamed cuts to welfare to IDS.

    Horrid, horrid optics as well as poor politics given IDS had nothing to lose.

    Shown up by IDS - which, despite my respect for IDS, is really quite something.

    GO has become a poor strategist as well as a poor tactician. Needs to go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,109
    edited June 2016

    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics

    That doesn't square with the margin of error 'exit' poll. If those sources are correct then Remain must have won big.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    A deal is a deal. As someone who after all offered a referendum to win the election, Dave would understand that more than most, if that is what is put to him.

    It's just that it is quite illogical.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    The punishment budget. That was a completely unnecessary stunt, unworthy of a CoE. He's had a decent run, time for him to either shift sideways or start concentrating on his post-politics gravy train.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,953
    It was reported a few weeks ago that some financial institutions had privately commissioned exit polls.

    The BBC's business editor tweeted "Markets have bet big that Remain has won. Big gains in FTSE continued into after hours trading with big jump just after 930pm."

    There were spikes in sterling versus the US dollar around 9pm and particularly just after 10pm.

    Were those the result of the reported private exit polls?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    edited June 2016

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    That's what I was thinking.
    Here here.

    What the fcuk are Sky upto with their broadcasts for Remain at each count? Do they not know the voting's over?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    If Remain wins, I think if I were Cameron I wouldn't take that deal. I'd be leaving soon anyway. Why not just stay loyal to your friend? The divided party will be Someone Else's Problem.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    And GE non-voters?

    There's the key and why the polls are wrong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    BBC chart using yellow for remain

    sums it up really

    Lol.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Yellow for remain. Like the Lib Dems.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    On my model that gives remain 53, leave 47

    7% of Kippers voting Remain. FFS.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    LOL, Osbo out for Tory LEAVEr fealty. A different face, no change in policy. Why not ask for a Home Secretary who will cut non-EU immigration to zero, if immigration's so important?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Sage and prescient individuals, the cream of UKIP.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,700
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    I know a couple of social conservatives who voted remain despite supporting ukip
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    I was with you on that, Richard, but given that the Leave campaign made such a big deal of the £350 million a week line, I think it became valid again.

    It's £350 million a week if we ignore the £100 million a week direct rebate and about £120 million a week of that EU funding, of course, and I certainly know you weren't one of those pushing that daft line. As someone who started off leaning Leave, it pissed me off somewhat (partly because I'd already, like you, got my hackles up at the "EU funding" claim; the Leave line more than legitimised the Remain claim, it went way beyond that into outright mendacity.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812
    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    The punishment budget. That was a completely unnecessary stunt, unworthy of a CoE. He's had a decent run, time for him to either shift sideways or start concentrating on his post-politics gravy train.
    Political parties for as long as anyone on here can remember have always threatened or bribed peoples' pay packets to win whatever election they want to win.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IDS bends the knee

    @chrisshipitv: Others may have already spotted this: Iain Duncan Smith NOT on that #savecameron letter (84 Leave Tories did) https://t.co/L310UceJK4

    @BBCVickiYoung: He said he wasn't asked to sign but thinks PM should stay. https://t.co/urzJ3Dasmf
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Where are the Greens ?

    I am a Green remainer !
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    if it's true that 'working class' areas voted in droves anyone else nervous now for remain's position?

    Middle class voters have turned out well too
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    If Boston in Lincs comes out for remain, it IS all over lol.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779
    Wanderer said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    If Remain wins, I think if I were Cameron I wouldn't take that deal. I'd be leaving soon anyway. Why not just stay loyal to your friend? The divided party will be Someone Else's Problem.
    What remains of it....
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    And GE non-voters?

    There's the key and why the polls are wrong.
    Some polls gave "did not vote at GE 2015" 2:1 to Leave IIRC.

    We will know soon either way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    On my model that gives remain 53, leave 47

    7% of Kippers voting Remain. FFS.
    14% of SNP voters voted No in indyref
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    @Pong is going to make a fortune on his Sunderland punt.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 171
    PB has been a fantastic resource during this campaign. Thankyou to all concerned in running it and all those who have posted.

    The campaign has fundamentally changed my approach to politics.

    I have left the party I have been a member of for nearly 3 decades and do not imagine returning.

    The elite that runs this country in their own interests need to be challenged like never before.

    I do not yet know who will do it or how but they will have my support untill they succeed.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Their MEP's?
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Trolls?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121

    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics

    I have the scars of US 2004 - there were lots of smug Democrats calling it comfortably for Kerry based on early returns in Ohio and Penn.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    A really high turnout surely favours Leave.
  • Suggestion from Britain Elects that Sunderland postals 60/40 for Leave.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @journodave: @janinegibson

    'Nigel, at what point do you think you reached... *pauses*'
    'Don't say it.'
    'BREAKING POINT'
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Boris thanks everyone who voted.
    Cameron thanks everyone who voted Remain.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Wanderer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Sage and prescient individuals, the cream of UKIP.
    Careerists.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    And Sky have a man on a boat!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:

    @Pong is going to make a fortune on his Sunderland punt.

    I was just thinking that. Hope he does, though I'm really impatient for the result.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    @Pong is going to make a fortune on his Sunderland punt.

    £10 for every minute after 11.40pm.

    Take your time, guys.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    Wanderer said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    If Remain wins, I think if I were Cameron I wouldn't take that deal. I'd be leaving soon anyway. Why not just stay loyal to your friend? The divided party will be Someone Else's Problem.
    If he doesn't the party will become totally ungovernable. His tactics have been disgraceful.

    I spoke to the father of a Hampshire Tory MP today (Leaver) and what he said about Osborne shocked even me.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics

    I remember listening to an excellent podcast type thing with a man saying don't knows were likely to break for remain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pong is going to make a fortune on his Sunderland punt.

    £10 per minute after 11.40pm

    Take your time, guys.
    I am on same bet for 10 pence a minute :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    PB has been a fantastic resource during this campaign. Thankyou to all concerned in running it and all those who have posted.

    The campaign has fundamentally changed my approach to politics.

    I have left the party I have been a member of for nearly 3 decades and do not imagine returning.

    The elite that runs this country in their own interests need to be challenged like never before.

    I do not yet know who will do it or how but they will have my support untill they succeed.

    Thanks for your input.

    I'm tempted to resign myself; will wait to see what happens in coming days and weeks before I plump. After all, I am conservative.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    alex. said:

    Wanderer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Sage and prescient individuals, the cream of UKIP.
    Careerists.
    Is there a career in voting UKIP? I wasn't told this.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,199
    How much should leave be ahead in Sunderland to have a chance of winning
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pong is going to make a fortune on his Sunderland punt.

    £10 for every minute after 11.40pm.

    Take your time, guys.
    Bravo - and you tipped it too; what a gent.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,816

    PB has been a fantastic resource during this campaign. Thankyou to all concerned in running it and all those who have posted.

    The campaign has fundamentally changed my approach to politics.

    I have left the party I have been a member of for nearly 3 decades and do not imagine returning.

    The elite that runs this country in their own interests need to be challenged like never before.

    I do not yet know who will do it or how but they will have my support untill they succeed.

    welcome to the great fellowship of disaffected righties, They told us to fk off so we did,

    And then theyll be shitting themselves when their numbers dont add up.

    Smash the Tories ! :-)
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    the kind of respondents the polling companies and betting markets should be nervous about right now
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    What's the overall par score for Sunderland (if National is 50:50)?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    tyson said:

    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics

    I have the scars of US 2004 - there were lots of smug Democrats calling it comfortably for Kerry based on early returns in Ohio and Penn.
    Bush led in most final polls though
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918

    Boris thanks everyone who voted.
    Cameron thanks everyone who voted Remain.

    That's what I was thinking. Cameron's such a bell-end. There'll be people voting Leave who voted for him in 2015: he needs to start making friends again from 10pm tonight and he sends that piece of crap Tweet. Not classy, not classy at all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    saddened said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Their MEP's?
    :smiley:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,852
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Pong is going to make a fortune on his Sunderland punt.

    £10 for every minute after 11.40pm.

    Take your time, guys.
    I have never more regretted my personal rule of not to bet whilst the polling stations are open.
  • At present got the tv off and just reading this site. Inrecommend it. - as long as you all dont do it
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    How much should leave be ahead in Sunderland to have a chance of winning

    60:40
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,300

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    I was with you on that, Richard, but given that the Leave campaign made such a big deal of the £350 million a week line, I think it became valid again.

    It's £350 million a week if we ignore the £100 million a week direct rebate and about £120 million a week of that EU funding, of course, and I certainly know you weren't one of those pushing that daft line. As someone who started off leaning Leave, it pissed me off somewhat (partly because I'd already, like you, got my hackles up at the "EU funding" claim; the Leave line more than legitimised the Remain claim, it went way beyond that into outright mendacity.
    I know it might be daft to get into this now but the rebate is not £100 million. It is about £60 million a week. Our donation to the EU is £288 million a week after the rebate. That is the number they should have been using as I said before.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    TSE- I think it is time to resurrect your thread on A/V.
    Every vote counts seems to work
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    A really high turnout surely favours Leave.

    I think a really high turnout favous Remain, because it will include the youth.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    Boris thanks everyone who voted.
    Cameron thanks everyone who voted Remain.

    Disgusting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    How much should leave be ahead in Sunderland to have a chance of winning

    Remain win Sunderland = remain win
    Leave win Newcastle = leave win

    Neither or both = wait will 3AM
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    The insufferable smugness of the 'Remain' campaign will last about 1 day. And then we'll realise there is still a hard slog ahead. And I voted Remain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    I am sure we will get the Blair lite "I am listening", with a similar result.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229

    Wanderer said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    If Remain wins, I think if I were Cameron I wouldn't take that deal. I'd be leaving soon anyway. Why not just stay loyal to your friend? The divided party will be Someone Else's Problem.
    If he doesn't the party will become totally ungovernable. His tactics have been disgraceful.

    I spoke to the father of a Hampshire Tory MP today (Leaver) and what he said about Osborne shocked even me.
    It's not just his conduct; he's not been a very good chancellor since 2015, when he started interfering even more across government. He should have stuck to the day job.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,519
    Good luck, Mr. Pong.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TOPPING said:

    John_M said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    The punishment budget. That was a completely unnecessary stunt, unworthy of a CoE. He's had a decent run, time for him to either shift sideways or start concentrating on his post-politics gravy train.
    Political parties for as long as anyone on here can remember have always threatened or bribed peoples' pay packets to win whatever election they want to win.
    Good lord, what did you get your degree in? Pointing out the bleedin' obvious? Politics is personal. Osborne crossed the line, as did Cameron (and I was a fan of both). I'm sure plenty of other people think everything was fine and dandy and acceptable. I am but one voter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,413
    edited June 2016
    BBC suggesting Swindon should be roughly 50/50 (not based on counts, but a prediction I think)
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    On my model that gives remain 53, leave 47

    7% of Kippers voting Remain. FFS.
    What if all numbers are same but ukip 4% in and 96% out?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    surbiton said:

    How much should leave be ahead in Sunderland to have a chance of winning

    60:40
    58:42?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Nicky Morgan calls it for Remain.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,199

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    Good post
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907

    Boris thanks everyone who voted.
    Cameron thanks everyone who voted Remain.

    That's what I was thinking. Cameron's such a bell-end. There'll be people voting Leave who voted for him in 2015:
    I'm one of them... As is Miss Plato. :;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    Wanderer said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCVickiYoung: Dozens of Tory MPs sign letter supporting Cameron. Talking to many in last week they were backing PM but gunning for Osborne. #euref

    #OsborneOut
    He would be made a scapegoat by bitter losers. What has he done that no one else has done in the Cons party who has been for Remain? What has he alone done that hasn't been sanctioned by Cons' Leavers?

    Slightly pathetic tbh.
    His head. Or no peace.

    That's the deal for a reunified party.
    If Remain wins, I think if I were Cameron I wouldn't take that deal. I'd be leaving soon anyway. Why not just stay loyal to your friend? The divided party will be Someone Else's Problem.
    If he doesn't the party will become totally ungovernable. His tactics have been disgraceful.

    I spoke to the father of a Hampshire Tory MP today (Leaver) and what he said about Osborne shocked even me.
    It's not just his conduct; he's not been a very good chancellor since 2015, when he started interfering even more across government. He should have stuck to the day job.
    Yup.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    I was with you on that, Richard, but given that the Leave campaign made such a big deal of the £350 million a week line, I think it became valid again.

    It's £350 million a week if we ignore the £100 million a week direct rebate and about £120 million a week of that EU funding, of course, and I certainly know you weren't one of those pushing that daft line. As someone who started off leaning Leave, it pissed me off somewhat (partly because I'd already, like you, got my hackles up at the "EU funding" claim; the Leave line more than legitimised the Remain claim, it went way beyond that into outright mendacity.
    I know it might be daft to get into this now but the rebate is not £100 million. It is about £60 million a week. Our donation to the EU is £288 million a week after the rebate. That is the number they should have been using as I said before.
    It's EU spending in the UK.

    Evidently we needn't replicate it but some in Leave have say we would.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Suggestion from Britain Elects that Sunderland postals 60/40 for Leave.

    Intepretation, please!
    Le Sunderland postals, eet hast voted for ze leave, 60/40, senor.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,413
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    more titters
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: Sunderland was telling me turnout in five minutes. Now saying half an hour! #EUref
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779

    A really high turnout surely favours Leave.

    Then you shouldn't have made all that effort to vote!

    Arf!!
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    MikeL said:

    What's the overall par score for Sunderland (if National is 50:50)?

    53/47 leave.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 739
    Basildon turnout 70-75% according to electoral officials
    - BBC
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710

    Okay Sky is really pissing me off talking about EU funding for all these different parts of the UK. Its not EU funding. Its UK taxpayers money laundered back to us via the EU.

    We're going to get a lot of this.

    It's the insufferable smugness of the Remainers that i'm going to find hardest to bear.

    But, we must accept the result if it is this. For now.
    I don't think there will be any smugness (other than from TSE, natch). Whatever the final result, it's already clear that Leave have done hugely better than anyone expected. If they haven't won, they've certainly come very close to winning, despite the odds. That's food for thought for all politicians.
    Thanks. I hope we can build on it. Somewhere. Somehow.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    The shark flashes beneath his skis.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,816
    Watson starts the divided Tories theme.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,109
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Nigel Farage has just re-conceded. Genuinely.

    Farage is receding by the minute...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    IN sources say two late poll shifts: 1. status quo reversion on economy 2. Core Labour Remain turnout soars on revulsion at Leave tactics

    I have the scars of US 2004 - there were lots of smug Democrats calling it comfortably for Kerry based on early returns in Ohio and Penn.
    Bush led in most final polls though
    Not in the exit polls in Ohio- Kerry was comfortably ahead.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,779
    saddened said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
    #EUref: On how party supporters voted (Remain/Leave):
    CON: 43/57
    LAB: 69/31
    LDEM: 73/27
    UKIP: 7/93
    (via YouGov)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746097249512529921

    Who on earth are the 7% UKIP that voted REMAIN? :open_mouth:
    Their MEP's?
    Very good!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,812

    PB has been a fantastic resource during this campaign. Thankyou to all concerned in running it and all those who have posted.

    The campaign has fundamentally changed my approach to politics.

    I have left the party I have been a member of for nearly 3 decades and do not imagine returning.

    The elite that runs this country in their own interests need to be challenged like never before.

    I do not yet know who will do it or how but they will have my support untill they succeed.

    Caroline Lucas?
This discussion has been closed.