politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A tale of two broadcasts. Roger’s critique of the opening t

[Political] ‘advertising isn’t about truth fairness or rationality, but about mobilising deeper and more primitive layers of the human mind.’ – Brian Eno.
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tbh Sam with his enormous garden and clearly wealthy parents will likely be fine in any case.
obv. vote leave ad is complete bull and the majority of the vote leave leadership don't give two shits about the nhs (i don't think it's necessarily the best thing ever either, mind).
whichever campaign can convice me that Mumford and sons type background music will be eliminated in their future vision of europe can probably have my vote..
Charming womanly voice of the Leave narrator contrasts with the silly millennial teen simper of Remain.
I expect LEAVERs to complain bitterly about this mendacious deceitful rubbish change of tack.....
Mind you, I am surprised at Saatchi producing a Persil ad, rather than an Ariel one for REMAIN, while LEAVE goes all Ariel.......
And if Cameron and Osborne continue in office, a blonde au pair as well.
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/736994994268086273
I think the answer's one!
(I don't know whether you were involved in Persil/Ariel but if so we must compare notes one day)
The Leave advert is ridiculous but I do think you are right to highlight the fact it has a consistent, if mendacious, theme throughout whilst the Remain advert is really all over the place. Both are hitting new levels of dishonesty and neither engage with any of the substantive issues which are obviously far too complicated for us to worry our little heads about.
I didn't think this debate could get more depressing but I was wrong.
Are any international observers are impressed, but I am surprised that The Electoral Commission deemed the design to be impartial.
Will watch the ads later, but thanks for the insight @Roger.
The last RemaIN broadcast should have a snippet each from Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron. All Prime Ministers current or ex alive. All extolling the same theme.
Please not the current and ex-Chancellors [ specially the current one ]. That will make the undecided Labour vote go only one way.
I agree. We will no longer have a majority government in either scenario and of course Labour have opted out of providing an alternative. We are heading into choppy waters with no one at the wheel. Its not good.
The image is leading, or could be construed as leading and I am surprised that a diagram is needed.
http://i.imgur.com/7zmlgd2.jpg?1
To go ahead for two or even four more years just requires nothing happens to force a vote. No amendments to the Fixed Term Parliament Act, no No Confidence votes and no vote for an early election in the Commons.
Even if it's an uncomfortable lame duck four years time simply needs to pass.
Lawson, Lamont, Dearlove, Geoghegan, etc
(* I'm excluding Major as his personal relationship with Cameron means he still has a personal interest)
Any Peebie spring to mind?
Impartial, neutral or leading?
Cheers to Mr. Roger for assessing the adverts in another good article.
FPT: I was going to watch Top Gear, but couldn't make it past the credits due to the screaming irritant now fronting the show. Judging by comments on the previous thread, my instinct was right.
Always thought Evans would be irksome, but didn't expect to be that put off.
I did flick back occasionally but couldn't watch for long. Matt le Blanc seemed ok. Evans should be tossed overboard.
Thanks, Roger.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/29/voters-in-the-eu-referendum-told-to-vote-for-remain-in-postal-vo/
Edit: Just saw the telegraph link. Surely they must have thought about this when designing the instructions!
@PolhomeEditor: Boris Johnson is "a nicer version of Donald Trump", says Ken Clarke. Blimey. @BBCr4today
And so is Donald Trump...
Are you in the Bristol area. Is it just there?
Council are apparently fine with it as it doesn't actually show a cross in the box !
I'm astounded that the returning officer thought it was a good idea. Presumably there would be the possibility to strike down the whole of the Bristol postal vote?
1) Brown and Major are ex-chancellors;
2) I would have thought putting Blair on an ad for REMAIN would sway all undecided Labour voters to LEAVE, and Brown would sway all undecided Conservative voters the same way, while Cameron would have the same effect on the LibDem voters (both of them).
So I really don't think that is a great plan - unless you have switched to LEAVE and are getting all Machiavellian about it!
2) The returning officer there is so far as I can judge incapable of thought, so your premise is flawed. Bristol makes Islington Labour Party in the good old days of Hodge look efficient, sane, equitable and well-run.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/57/Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg
Anyway I was relatively surprised to find my Father in Law for in whilst my Mother in Law was a waverer although I would guess leaning Leave.
Problem is all it does is alienate people like me who are open to voting Tory (and have in the past) but are adverse to mendacious naval gazing, such as the events of this weekend. I
I would rather vote Lib Dem than see a Tory government run by the rights equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. Ugh.
Nonetheless, it was too good an opportunity not to look at the detailed YouGov data. This is what I make of it:
GE2015
C 545
Lab 477
LD 121
UKIP 191
Others 188
Total 1522
Having excluded the DK / WNV , the current VI gives in percentages:
IN OUT
C 40.41% 59.59%
Lab 74.26% 25.74%
LD 78.72% 21.28%
UKIP 2.45% 97.55%
Others 66.92% 33.08%
Putting this back into the GE15 [ but excluding DK/WNV ]
IN OUT
C 220 325
Lab 354 123
LD 95 26
UKIP 5 186
Others 126 62
Total 800 722
52.5% 47.5%
What struck me were the Labour and Tory splits. Remember many Labour OUTers already identify themselves with UKIP. so Lab IN % will go up. But this also applies to Tories. And despite the defection to UKIP, still 60% of GE2015 Tories identify with Brexit.
By the way, I feel most DK/WNV's will opt for IN. They are still 13.7% of the VI total.
Make no mistake, if RemaIN wins, it was Labour voters wot won it !
I think another line up could be:
Cameron, Corbyn, Farron, Sturgeon, Lucas, Wood all given 30 or 15 seconds.
The last bit should just mention that amongst all the party leaders in GB, only Farage is against RemaIN.
It would affect the DK/WNV's.
The power of advertising is in selling you a new car.
It also shows the limitations of the Remain case. They have nothing they aren't embarrassed to even try to sell you.
I am shocked to discover Remain isn't shouting of Cameron's amazing deal, though.
Many who don't vote think that there's no point voting because "they're all the same". If these people turn out to vote against the Establishment consensus...
https://twitter.com/acommonlawyer/status/737188794164752384
https://twitter.com/JamDelay/status/736516687063863296
If - and it's a big if, but I don't know electoral law - the votes are deemed invalid as a result of the guidance and either have to be re-issued or re-run or struck out that's really not good. It's not good for Remain; if it's close (or worse still changes the result) that also plays into the narrative of a corrupted vote that some people might claim