politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture
After all the discussion during the week about why the phone and online polls are showing such different pictures I’ve been examining the detailed data from he last eight polls. The area where the two modes most divide is with the oldies – the group that, as we all know is most likely to turnout on June 23rd.
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First....Encore!0
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2nd like Sri Lanka in a two horse race that is the cricket...-1
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This leaves me wondering what the breakdown is for other age segments. Isn't it the case that phone polls have better Remain numbers at all ages?
But it is a good point that a lot of older people don't use the internet. Whether that would equate to being less Leaverish, who knows?0 -
3/4 phone polls still have a majority of over 65s voting Leave, just by a narrower margin than those online0
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This is typical of Brexit opinion pieces in the Mirror.
https://twitter.com/thecarolemalone/status/7366054153210101760 -
FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough.
At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.0 -
Glad to see Mike doing a thread on this. Someone pointed out this discrepancy over a week ago in the comments.
I dont think the reason Mike gives stacks up. Mike is essentially saying that online polls are over represented by middle class pensioners of above average wealth and intelligence.
If that were true wouldn the online polls lean too much to remain not brexit?0 -
I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says0
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Sean_F said:
FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough.
At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
I think you'll find that UKIP has fewer council seats than it did a year ago. It simply hasn't found a way of holding on at by-elections.Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough.
At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
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UKIP had a net gain of 26 this year.MikeSmithson said:Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough.
At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
I think you'll find that UKIP has fewer council seats than it did a year ago. It simply hasn't found a way of holding on at by-elections.Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough.
At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.0 -
UKIP was the number one recipient for protest votes while the Lib Dems were clutched in the embraces of the despicable Tories. Now that they have broken free, they can receive protest votes again.MikeSmithson said:
I think you'll find that UKIP has fewer council seats than it did a year ago. It simply hasn't found a way of holding on at by-elections.Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough. At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
As well of course, as all the Lib Dem votes that were on loan to the "nice" Mr Cameron, in order to save us all from the evil Milliband and his even more evil controller, Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
Does internet use amongst pensioners correlate with wealth, intelligence etc? It might be that richer more intelligent pensioners are, on average, better connected with stronger social circles and, if anything, less engagement with the online world. Maybe. There must be some research on this?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Glad to see Mike doing a thread on this. Someone pointed out this discrepancy over a week ago in the comments.
I dont think the reason Mike gives stacks up. Mike is essentially saying that online polls are over represented by middle class pensioners of above average wealth and intelligence.
If that were true wouldn the online polls lean too much to remain not brexit?0 -
I think the Lib Dems will do better in local elections than they did in 2011-15, for the reasons you give. But, it won't avail them at Parliamentary level.PClipp said:
UKIP was the number one recipient for protest votes while the Lib Dems were clutched in the embraces of the despicable Tories. Now that they have broken free, they can receive protest votes again.MikeSmithson said:
I think you'll find that UKIP has fewer council seats than it did a year ago. It simply hasn't found a way of holding on at by-elections.Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough. At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
As well of course, as all the Lib Dem votes that were on loan to the "nice" Mr Cameron, in order to save us all from the evil Milliband and his even more evil controller, Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
I know there are a few SpaceX fans here.This onboard film from yesterday is pretty funky.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jEz03Z8azc0 -
If everyone else hadn't voted, the LDs would have majority in ParliamentSean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems will do better in local elections than they did in 2011-15, for the reasons you give. But, it won't avail them at Parliamentary level.PClipp said:
UKIP was the number one recipient for protest votes while the Lib Dems were clutched in the embraces of the despicable Tories. Now that they have broken free, they can receive protest votes again.MikeSmithson said:
I think you'll find that UKIP has fewer council seats than it did a year ago. It simply hasn't found a way of holding on at by-elections.Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough. At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
As well of course, as all the Lib Dem votes that were on loan to the "nice" Mr Cameron, in order to save us all from the evil Milliband and his even more evil controller, Mrs Sturgeon.
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On topic -
'A leading polling expert has said he would be very surprised if a majority of people over the age of 65 do not vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396710
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CoooooolTheuniondivvie said:I know there are a few SpaceX fans here.This onboard film from yesterday is pretty funky.
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jEz03Z8azc0 -
If he's right, bad news for remain. What proportion of voters will be over 65, given likely low turnout? 50% doesn't seem wholly unrealistic.SandyRentool said:On topic -
'A leading polling expert has said he would be very surprised if a majority of people over the age of 65 do not vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396710
On the other hand, if phone polls are right about the oldies, that's very good news for remain for the same reason!0 -
They would still have found a way to lose more than 326 seats under Calamity Clegg!Plato_Says said:
If everyone else hadn't voted, the LDs would have majority in ParliamentSean_F said:
I think the Lib Dems will do better in local elections than they did in 2011-15, for the reasons you give. But, it won't avail them at Parliamentary level.PClipp said:
UKIP was the number one recipient for protest votes while the Lib Dems were clutched in the embraces of the despicable Tories. Now that they have broken free, they can receive protest votes again.MikeSmithson said:
I think you'll find that UKIP has fewer council seats than it did a year ago. It simply hasn't found a way of holding on at by-elections.Sean_F said:FPT I can't see any reason why UKIP should be just about to vanish, other than wishful thinking from Lib Dems who think they're on the cusp of a major breakthrough. At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
As well of course, as all the Lib Dem votes that were on loan to the "nice" Mr Cameron, in order to save us all from the evil Milliband and his even more evil controller, Mrs Sturgeon.0 -
The Flower Power generation think they were conned, in 1975.SandyRentool said:On topic -
'A leading polling expert has said he would be very surprised if a majority of people over the age of 65 do not vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-363967100 -
I think oldies are more likely to be 62% leave then only 53% leave. Just my gut instinct. What is others gut feel on this I would like to know.0
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That's one of two explanations that fit the facts. The other is that Eurosceptics are less likely to die early.Sean_F said:
The Flower Power generation think they were conned, in 1975.SandyRentool said:On topic -
'A leading polling expert has said he would be very surprised if a majority of people over the age of 65 do not vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-363967100 -
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
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My experience is that the divide is about at 40. Tbe more over 40 you are the more brexit you are (libdem enthusiasts excepted)
Probably in part because over 40s can remember a time when you could replace your windows without them having to be approved by the local soviet.0 -
Um, I am 40 and 6 monthsPaul_Bedfordshire said:My experience is that the divide is about at 40. Tbe more over 40 you are the more brexit you are (libdem enthusiasts excepted)
Probably in part because over 40s can remember a time when you could replace your windows without them having to be approved by the local soviet.
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Remain campaigners clutching at straws0
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Plenty of other explanations too. For example older people get the more rigid their views and less inclined to see change in a positive way.rcs1000 said:
That's one of two explanations that fit the facts. The other is that Eurosceptics are less likely to die early.Sean_F said:
The Flower Power generation think they were conned, in 1975.SandyRentool said:On topic -
'A leading polling expert has said he would be very surprised if a majority of people over the age of 65 do not vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396710
People who self select for internet panels have put themselves forward to give an opinion, those contacted by phone have not chosen to do that. The main difference between the methodology is who chooses the sample. Internet polls are inherently biased, hence the complex weightings used to try to correct for this. The problem is that you can only correct for known factors, a random sample by phone corrects for unknown biasing factors too (though with some imperfections).0 -
I am an over 65 Remainer and just done YOUGUV Referendum online poll. Questions were the usual vote questions plus a few additional about Economy Better in or out.0
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It is time that someone invented a Doom-o-matic on the same lines as Daily-mail-o-matc giving random doom that witll occur if we Brexit.Plato_Says said:
http://www.qwghlm.co.uk/toys/dailymail/
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From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?0
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Fox - Phone-poll respondents are also self-selecting samples. Most refuse to take part. The response rate is apparently between 5 and 8%.0
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Maybe leave should promise to use the money we save on the EU fees to abolish student tuition fees.weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
Woupd make the libdems heads explode0 -
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.0 -
I think the tipping point from Remain to Leave is about 44.Paul_Bedfordshire said:My experience is that the divide is about at 40. Tbe more over 40 you are the more brexit you are (libdem enthusiasts excepted)
Probably in part because over 40s can remember a time when you could replace your windows without them having to be approved by the local soviet.
Certainly (and very strangely) younger people today are more willing to do as they're told by authority figures than older people are.0 -
England haven't won the World Cup since 1966, and the FA have to get enough votes to land a successful bid. Johnson's claim is a load of balls.0
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It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.0
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That seems pretty low to me with over four in ten not voting.NickPalmer said:
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.
75-80% or more is a high turnout.0 -
The difference is that online polls are actively self selecting while phone polls are passively self selecting. It makes a difference to bias.NeilVW said:Fox - Phone-poll respondents are also self-selecting samples. Most refuse to take part. The response rate is apparently between 5 and 8%.
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The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
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Also, when the Olympics was awarded to London, they were in a fight with Paris and Madrid. Not much EU solidarity there.0
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Indeed as most Remainers are LD, Lab, SNP or Green rather than Cameronite Tories, I suspect that the majority of Remainers have no love of Cameron and Osborne.NickPalmer said:
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.
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Have we had a 'Brexit could force universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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And yet they are swallowing all of the tripe being fed to them by Cameron and Osborne.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed as most Remainers are LD, Lab, SNP or Green rather than Cameronite Tories, I suspect that the majority of Remainers have no love of Cameron and Osborne.NickPalmer said:
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.0 -
The annual cost is £4 billion or so - At £133 million a week that would take 30 weeks - and we would still have room for 11 new hospitals.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Maybe leave should promise to use the money we save on the EU fees to abolish student tuition fees.weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
Woupd make the libdems heads explode
However wouldn't such a promise fall foul of the Representation of the People Act - inducing people to vote.0 -
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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We've come close - on a couple of times. Maybe if Brexit results in fewer European footballers playing in the Premier league we can develop some more home-grown talent.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
Vote Brexit - to Win the World Cup0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2016/apr/12/four-reasons-a-brexit-would-be-bad-news-for-uk-universitiesHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we had a 'Brexit could force universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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They could point out tbat leaving the EU would free up the money to abolish tuition feesweejonnie said:
The annual cost is £4 billion or so - At £133 million a week that would take 30 weeks - and we would still have room for 11 new hospitals.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Maybe leave should promise to use the money we save on the EU fees to abolish student tuition fees.weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
Woupd make the libdems heads explode
However wouldn't such a promise fall foul of the Representation of the People Act - inducing people to vote.0 -
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Not at all. Voting Remain despite rather than because of those two.SandyRentool said:
And yet they are swallowing all of the tripe being fed to them by Cameron and Osborne.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed as most Remainers are LD, Lab, SNP or Green rather than Cameronite Tories, I suspect that the majority of Remainers have no love of Cameron and Osborne.NickPalmer said:
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.
The vapid bilge from Leave helps too. For Centrist and left wing voters the leading Leave people are pretty repellent.0 -
We only win world cups under Labour governments.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
Football 1966
Rugby 20030 -
wonder what the civilian assets referred to are - the police perhaps?0
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Plus we have those clowns who pitched up in Leicester and this chap:foxinsoxuk said:
Not at all. Voting Remain despite rather than because of those two.SandyRentool said:
And yet they are swallowing all of the tripe being fed to them by Cameron and Osborne.foxinsoxuk said:
Indeed as most Remainers are LD, Lab, SNP or Green rather than Cameronite Tories, I suspect that the majority of Remainers have no love of Cameron and Osborne.NickPalmer said:
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.
The vapid bilge from Leave helps too. For Centrist and left wing voters the leading Leave people are pretty repellent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36390378
My reasons for voting Leave are nowt to do with any of them.0 -
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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Blimey, I was being facetious. Never misunderestimate Remain.weejonnie said:
http://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2016/apr/12/four-reasons-a-brexit-would-be-bad-news-for-uk-universitiesHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we had a 'Brexit could force universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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Worse than that - your mother will MAKE all of your clothes!Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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And children won't be able to have ice cream any more.Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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Remember - L is for Leave, L is for Lice.0
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Intelligence bods?PAW said:wonder what the civilian assets referred to are - the police perhaps?
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And cut your hair.SandyRentool said:
Worse than that - your mother will MAKE all of your clothes!Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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Good evening all.
The answer to the question this thread poses is simple. Older people are much happier filling in answers to questions from pollsters on the web than answering questions or indeed speaking on the phone to strangers. Although it doesn't trouble me - my voice is strong and firm - many oldsters have wavery voices and have a physical inability to articulate as they did when younger. This shames many of our older bretheren, who then like to be as brief as possible.
Therefore I totally oppose OGH's summary. 0 -
SandyRentool said:
Remember - L is for Leave, L is for Lice.
Where's that from again?
EDIT Harry Enfield?0 -
And brush your teeth.Plato_Says said:
And cut your hair.SandyRentool said:
Worse than that - your mother will MAKE all of your clothes!Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
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L is for Labour. L is for Lice.Plato_Says said:SandyRentool said:Remember - L is for Leave, L is for Lice.
Where's that from again?
EDIT Harry Enfield?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK9IR9gmCHw0 -
Right, time for some French TV on BBC4 ...0
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Actually that could happen if we remain.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And children won't be able to have ice cream any more.Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
http://eatoutmagazine.co.uk/ice-cream-under-threat-because-new-eu-regulations
Save our Ice Cream - Vote Brexit0 -
I know you mean well and I don't want my response interpreted as an anti-Brexit rant, but Lilico has previous for wishful/inaccurate thinking regarding numbers - so much so I've just given up on him. He thought that the cost in dollars of some climate-change scheme was the same as the cost in dollars as terraforming Mars, a statement so jawdroppingly inaccurate the only rational discussion is by how many orders of magnitude the inaccuracy is.Plato_Says said:ICYMI - Mr Lilico's 2p
"The EU is not an economic project. The main good things about it are not economic and the reasons for leaving are not economic either. The economic case for Brexit is not that there would be large economic gains; it is that there would not be prohibitive economic costs that make it unfeasible to secure the large geopolitical, self-determination and constitutional gains we can make by leaving.
Nonetheless, there is a chance that if all goes well, Brexit could be economically beneficial over the medium term. How so? After all, the Treasury says the UK would sacrifice 6 per cent of GDP growth by 2030 by leaving. How might we gain, instead?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/why-leaving-the-eu-could-actually-be-to-our-economic-advantage/
It's difficult to find now - Telegraph have fixed their robots.txt file so it doesn't come up on "Wayback" and somebody's done a "right to be forgotten" thing on it so it doesn't come up in searches, but the original was here, the archived copy is here, and some ranty discussions on it are here and here.
So if you'll forgive me, no I won't read it, for which I apologise.0 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
L is for Labour. L is for Lice.Plato_Says said:SandyRentool said:Remember - L is for Leave, L is for Lice.
Where's that from again?
EDIT Harry Enfield?
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK9IR9gmCHw 0 -
English is the best language in the world.SandyRentool said:Right, time for some French TV on BBC4 ...
All but one of the 26 Eurovision final entries was sung in English, or partly in English.0 -
Gut feel is not a good guidenunu said:I think oldies are more likely to be 62% leave then only 53% leave. Just my gut instinct. What is others gut feel on this I would like to know.
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And people mock the Daily Express / Daily Mail over scare stories...I am sure they have some sort of random word generator, which they run every morning and then attach BREXIT would mean an end to this.Plato_Says said:
I really don't know why they don't stick to a core series of arguments which are genuine likely difficulties of leaving the EU.0 -
https://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/733001438029287425weejonnie said:
http://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2016/apr/12/four-reasons-a-brexit-would-be-bad-news-for-uk-universitiesHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we had a 'Brexit could force universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
0 -
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That is a very good suggestion.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Maybe leave should promise to use the money we save on the EU fees to abolish student tuition fees.weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
Woupd make the libdems heads explode
My theory is that the arguments most likely to resonate for Vote Leave are those that illustrate negative consequences of EU membership (EU students getting subsidised tuition and taking UK uni places) through the promise of positive improvements (lower tuition fees).
Far more tangible than the Remainiac's economic scare stories.
Anecdote alert: spent last night in the pub with colleagues. Two lefties accused, one in hectoring tones, a mate of mine of bigotry for reporting that increased MENA immigration to Germany seems to have resulted in various reports of attacks on women.
0 -
The problem with the EU is that it is hard to parody. I mean. WTF?weejonnie said:
Actually that could happen if we remain.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
And children won't be able to have ice cream any more.Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
http://eatoutmagazine.co.uk/ice-cream-under-threat-because-new-eu-regulations
Save our Ice Cream - Vote Brexit0 -
The Burnham random number generator has sprung into action.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-05-28/burnham-says-government-left-manchester-1bn-short/
It has predicted that Manchester is short of £1bn, tomorrow Burnham will correctly predict the outcome of every game at Euro 2016, and next week's lottery balls.0 -
Is mason turning to writing Marxist political bonkbusters?Plato_Says said:0 -
Gettng his excuses in early...dr_spyn said:The Burnham random number generator has sprung into action.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-05-28/burnham-says-government-left-manchester-1bn-short/
It has predicted that Manchester is short of £1bn, tomorrow Burnham will correctly predict the outcome of every game at Euro 2016, and next week's lottery balls.0 -
In brief: sensible.OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
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Maybe the people I meet with every day are far from being typical - if any of them have an opinion, it isn't one they choose to talk about. Really, I don't think I've ever heard anyone mention it.NickPalmer said:
No, lots of us support Remain without being fans of Dave. It's not as though he seemed to be a huge Eurofan himself - I get the impression that he simply wants to win the vote and then retire.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Cognitive dissonance?OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.0 -
Half sensible.Toms said:
In brief: sensible.OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
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Maybe. Out of intterest whats yours are the 65+ closer to 53 or 62?MikeSmithson said:
Gut feel is not a good guidenunu said:I think oldies are more likely to be 62% leave then only 53% leave. Just my gut instinct. What is others gut feel on this I would like to know.
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This is all Greek to me, would someone knowledgeable on gilts like to comment?
https://medium.com/@aldursys/the-other-240m-per-week-contribution-due-to-the-eu-c54e4eb0a763#.9t5bte9ij0 -
Not nice - but the left aren't nice. This was regrettably proven by a close relative (who supports the LDs) defacing my Vote Leave sticker in the car.Mortimer said:
That is a very good suggestion.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Maybe leave should promise to use the money we save on the EU fees to abolish student tuition fees.weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
Woupd make the libdems heads explode
My theory is that the arguments most likely to resonate for Vote Leave are those that illustrate negative consequences of EU membership (EU students getting subsidised tuition and taking UK uni places) through the promise of positive improvements (lower tuition fees).
Far more tangible than the Remainiac's economic scare stories.
Anecdote alert: spent last night in the pub with colleagues. Two lefties accused, one in hectoring tones, a mate of mine of bigotry for reporting that increased MENA immigration to Germany seems to have resulted in various reports of attacks on women.0 -
"SPIEGEL has learned that Martin Selmayr, the head of cabinet for European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, held a meeting on Monday with representatives from some (6 founding members) EU states to take part in the discrete talks.
The meetings are considered to be extremely sensitive since nobody in Brussels wants to give the impression that the EU is anticipating the British will vote to leave the EU. In reality, however, uneasiness is on the rise at EU headquarters given how even the two sides are according to British public opinion polls.
...The foreign ministers agreed that, should Brexit become a reality, Europe would badly need a boost of energy.
http://m.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-1094603.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=0 -
I don't think you need to be knowledgeablr.Plato_Says said:This is all Greek to me, would someone knowledgeable on gilts like to comment?
https://medium.com/@aldursys/the-other-240m-per-week-contribution-due-to-the-eu-c54e4eb0a763#.9t5bte9ij
1) The government borrows money by issuing gilts
2) The interest paid on the gilts is £240 million a week going abroad (i.e. impoverishing the UK economy)
3) The UK Government could in theory borrow money from the bank of England - so the money stays in the UK.
4) This is not allowed by EU regulations.
(Not saying this is a bad thing as otherwise some Governments would just print money, causing high inflation, and paying back the debt with money only a fraction of the value as that borrowed.0 -
I wholly disagree.weejonnie said:
Half sensible.Toms said:
In brief: sensible.OldKingCole said:I'm for REMAIN but I don't believe a word Cameron says
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I have been astonished at non-political acquaintances suddenly taking an interest in voting, and saying they will vote Leave.
Anecdotal I know, but I do think the turnout will be very good, and there's every chance Leave could do it.
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Don't say things like that on the internet........Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
0 -
No - much worse than that. Your mother will KNIT all of your clothes!SandyRentool said:
Worse than that - your mother will MAKE all of your clothes!Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
0 -
Cyclefree said:
No - much worse than that. Your mother will KNIT all of your clothes!SandyRentool said:
Worse than that - your mother will MAKE all of your clothes!Plato_Says said:
Brexit means your mother will buy all your clothes.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It will be a never ending diet of Mills & Boon or Barbara Cartland.Plato_Says said:
Brexit will disable your PS4 and block online porn.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Have we head a 'Brexit could for universities to close' headline yet?weejonnie said:From the reports in the press it looks as if the remain campaign is struggling to find votes anywhere - they are begging on hands and knees for the younger naïve voters to come out. What next - promise them extra grants at University if Remain wins?
So that's how WW3 starts.
0 -
Not true - world T20 title was won on the 16th May 2010, in the first week of the Coalition. That's worth a dozen world cups in a rubbishy sport like football as wellfoxinsoxuk said:
We only win world cups under Labour governments.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
Football 1966
Rugby 2003 0 -
How many of our fellow EU nations play Cricket anyway?ydoethur said:
Not true - world T20 title was won on the 16th May 2010, in the first week of the Coalition. That's worth a dozen world cups in a rubbishy sport like football as wellfoxinsoxuk said:
We only win world cups under Labour governments.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
Football 1966
Rugby 2003 0 -
Most of the tournemant was under a Labour govt, only the final not. There was probably a persisting helpful miasma of socialism still present in the atmosphere.ydoethur said:
Not true - world T20 title was won on the 16th May 2010, in the first week of the Coalition. That's worth a dozen world cups in a rubbishy sport like football as wellfoxinsoxuk said:
We only win world cups under Labour governments.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
Football 1966
Rugby 2003
:-)0 -
Where?Sunil_Prasannan said:
How many of our fellow EU nations play Cricket anyway?ydoethur said:
Not true - world T20 title was won on the 16th May 2010, in the first week of the Coalition. That's worth a dozen world cups in a rubbishy sport like football as wellfoxinsoxuk said:
We only win world cups under Labour governments.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The only time we WON the World Cup was before we joined the Common Market!SandyRentool said:It must have escaped Remain's notice that the only time England has hosted a World Cup was before we joined the Common Market.
Football 1966
Rugby 20030
