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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE’s strong support amongst the oldies is an online phenomenon – the phone surveys paint a different picture
After all the discussion during the week about why the phone and online polls are showing such different pictures I’ve been examining the detailed data from he last eight polls. The area where the two modes most divide is with the oldies – the group that, as we all know is most likely to turnout on June 23rd.
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But it is a good point that a lot of older people don't use the internet. Whether that would equate to being less Leaverish, who knows?
https://twitter.com/thecarolemalone/status/736605415321010176
At every round of elections post 2012, UKIP have enjoyed a net gain.
I dont think the reason Mike gives stacks up. Mike is essentially saying that online polls are over represented by middle class pensioners of above average wealth and intelligence.
If that were true wouldn the online polls lean too much to remain not brexit?
As well of course, as all the Lib Dem votes that were on loan to the "nice" Mr Cameron, in order to save us all from the evil Milliband and his even more evil controller, Mrs Sturgeon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jEz03Z8azc
'A leading polling expert has said he would be very surprised if a majority of people over the age of 65 do not vote to leave the European Union."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396710
On the other hand, if phone polls are right about the oldies, that's very good news for remain for the same reason!
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/736635570965843968
Probably in part because over 40s can remember a time when you could replace your windows without them having to be approved by the local soviet.
People who self select for internet panels have put themselves forward to give an opinion, those contacted by phone have not chosen to do that. The main difference between the methodology is who chooses the sample. Internet polls are inherently biased, hence the complex weightings used to try to correct for this. The problem is that you can only correct for known factors, a random sample by phone corrects for unknown biasing factors too (though with some imperfections).
http://www.qwghlm.co.uk/toys/dailymail/
Woupd make the libdems heads explode
On topic, I'm wary of post-hoc analyses, but the nugget of info that phone canvasses have more oldies than needed in their samples does suggest that they may be a better guide to this high-turnout subsection.
By the way, is it time to have a new column on likely turnout? I think it'll be pretty high myself - 57-58% or so. Everyone seems to have an opinion, which isn't altogether the case even at General elections.
Certainly (and very strangely) younger people today are more willing to do as they're told by authority figures than older people are.
75-80% or more is a high turnout.
However wouldn't such a promise fall foul of the Representation of the People Act - inducing people to vote.
Vote Brexit - to Win the World Cup
The vapid bilge from Leave helps too. For Centrist and left wing voters the leading Leave people are pretty repellent.
Football 1966
Rugby 2003
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36390378
My reasons for voting Leave are nowt to do with any of them.
The answer to the question this thread poses is simple. Older people are much happier filling in answers to questions from pollsters on the web than answering questions or indeed speaking on the phone to strangers. Although it doesn't trouble me - my voice is strong and firm - many oldsters have wavery voices and have a physical inability to articulate as they did when younger. This shames many of our older bretheren, who then like to be as brief as possible.
Therefore I totally oppose OGH's summary.
Where's that from again?
EDIT Harry Enfield?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK9IR9gmCHw
http://eatoutmagazine.co.uk/ice-cream-under-threat-because-new-eu-regulations
Save our Ice Cream - Vote Brexit
It's difficult to find now - Telegraph have fixed their robots.txt file so it doesn't come up on "Wayback" and somebody's done a "right to be forgotten" thing on it so it doesn't come up in searches, but the original was here, the archived copy is here, and some ranty discussions on it are here and here.
So if you'll forgive me, no I won't read it, for which I apologise.
All but one of the 26 Eurovision final entries was sung in English, or partly in English.
I really don't know why they don't stick to a core series of arguments which are genuine likely difficulties of leaving the EU.
My theory is that the arguments most likely to resonate for Vote Leave are those that illustrate negative consequences of EU membership (EU students getting subsidised tuition and taking UK uni places) through the promise of positive improvements (lower tuition fees).
Far more tangible than the Remainiac's economic scare stories.
Anecdote alert: spent last night in the pub with colleagues. Two lefties accused, one in hectoring tones, a mate of mine of bigotry for reporting that increased MENA immigration to Germany seems to have resulted in various reports of attacks on women.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-05-28/burnham-says-government-left-manchester-1bn-short/
It has predicted that Manchester is short of £1bn, tomorrow Burnham will correctly predict the outcome of every game at Euro 2016, and next week's lottery balls.
https://medium.com/@aldursys/the-other-240m-per-week-contribution-due-to-the-eu-c54e4eb0a763#.9t5bte9ij
The meetings are considered to be extremely sensitive since nobody in Brussels wants to give the impression that the EU is anticipating the British will vote to leave the EU. In reality, however, uneasiness is on the rise at EU headquarters given how even the two sides are according to British public opinion polls.
...The foreign ministers agreed that, should Brexit become a reality, Europe would badly need a boost of energy.
http://m.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-1094603.html#spRedirectedFrom=www&referrrer=
1) The government borrows money by issuing gilts
2) The interest paid on the gilts is £240 million a week going abroad (i.e. impoverishing the UK economy)
3) The UK Government could in theory borrow money from the bank of England - so the money stays in the UK.
4) This is not allowed by EU regulations.
(Not saying this is a bad thing as otherwise some Governments would just print money, causing high inflation, and paying back the debt with money only a fraction of the value as that borrowed.
I have been astonished at non-political acquaintances suddenly taking an interest in voting, and saying they will vote Leave.
Anecdotal I know, but I do think the turnout will be very good, and there's every chance Leave could do it.
So that's how WW3 starts.
:-)