politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This looks like how REMAIN will play the closing four weeks
Comments
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Mr. Urquhart, Trump doesn't act old.
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.0 -
And that's why you'll vote Leave. I don't share your opinion and don't believe things are as bad as you say. Because of that and because I believe the Single market delivers significant advantages, I will vote to Remain. However, if I believe further down the line that we have lost too much control I may well vote to Leave. If enough of my fellow citizens feel the same then the UK will leave.Casino_Royale said:
Again, Remainers making the point that because we are having a referendum now and could have another in the future that demonstrates we are sovereign so we should vote to Remain now.SouthamObserver said:
No. When I vote for an MP I am presented with a manifesto against which I can judge his or her subsequent performance. The Commission is bound by the decisions of the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. We have the ability to pull out of the EU when we wish to.Charles said:
No, you accept exactly the same level of uncertainty as when you vote for your MP.SouthamObserver said:
As I say, it's one hell of a leap in the dark. You seem to be saying that if you vote Leave you have to accept complete uncertainty about what it is you're voting for. You can't even be certain when the UK would actually cease to be an EU member state.
If a majority of MPs decide to do something then we have no say. But at least with Leave we can respond by sacking them.
I can't sack Juncker or Schultz or Tusk. That matters to me.
Eh?
This isn't an abstract exorcism of our theoretical democratic rights. It's because we don't have sufficient control over our laws and destiny *at the moment*, think it'll get even worse if we stay, and think we'd be much better off (politically and economically) if we took back control.
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Electoral Commission making sure the youth vote:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjYe1xTUoAAwk2S.jpg:large0 -
See my point about his campaigning...I don't think I could keep that schedule up and I work A LOT of hours and a lot younger than the Trumpster. In addition to all the rallies it is the travelling between them, which in the US is obviously significant distances and across multiple time zones.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, Trump doesn't act old.
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.0 -
It really isn'tMonikerDiCanio said:
Saatchi's advert is incompetent. The immediate impact is fingers crossed for Leave.Roger said:
If this poster has been made by Saatchi you can be sure they've researched thoroughly the weakness that will most resonate with Remain's target market.
It might seem obvious but you can never tell. I wouldn't have guessed that Miliband being under the thumb of the Nats would have resonated because I couldn't see it because I wasn't who it was targeted at..0 -
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Brad Pitt is older than FarageMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, Trump doesn't act old.
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.0 -
Not sure we can put Farage's vs Pitt's appearance down to difference stress though....I have a sneaking suspicion that while Farage is getting a general light lunch of 4 pints and 3 bottles of plonk, Pitt is doing 1000 push-ups.Plato_Says said:.
Brad Pitt is older than FarageMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, Trump doesn't act old.
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.0 -
Top post, absolutely top notch stuff.94432a1 said:2. From Remain, we here absolutly nothing on the future direction of the EU. The government supports eurozone fiscal union, yet has no say in its development. We do not know how fiscal union will work for non eurozone members. The Lisbon treaty is still being implemented and there are many significant issues relating to sovereignty that will affect us and we do not know how. Most issues are now QMV, where we have c. 12.5% of the vote. We also have the unkown in the national political sphere - both France and Germany are having general elections in 2017 and we do not know how this will affect the EU and its direction of travel. A new treaty has been proposed by the executive bodies of the EU, primarilly to deal with the fiscal union (but who knows what else it will include) - we do not have any information whatsoever on what the United Kingdom's position will be in these negotiations.
As far as I can see, there are two legitimate options. One is to Leave (which I support) and one is to Remain. I do not believe that the government's prospectus for Remain is legitimate - as status quo is not on offer. I can understand people voting to become part (as in an enthusiastic member) of the EU - with all that that entails - but that is not what the government is proposing; we are being offered life inside the EU but outside the critical decision making centre which will be the eurozone. I do not understand how that will give us "influence".
The media and talking head focus upon the "official" campaigns is very, very poor. This is a major decision and there needs to be a proper level of informed debate in the media, society and in Parliment. There is a very large amount of research, analysis and detailed work in the public domain about both the direction of the EU as well as proposed exit solutions. It speaks volumes that this is barely mentioned in either of the "official" campaigns. They are playing it like a general election when the ramifications are much more profound. The media needs to play its role in presenting the facts, analysis and opinion to people in an open way.
The fact is that the politicians have not been able to resolve this issue since at least 1991. They have admitted as much by calling for a referendum to try to settle it. We are then treated to an infantalised campaign by both sides, with the media in general acting very poorly in their role to hold both the government and the opposition to account.0 -
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
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BBC News - top 3 stories on News Home Page after Trump are Migration Statistics, Migrant Shipwreck and French Industrial Action.
Third most watched item: Boris and Cynical Immigration.
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Didn't stop you the other night calling someone Thick.Tykejohnno said:@TOPPING posted -
ok cool thanks so just to get the rules straight: if, say, you say something that I deem ridiculous, am I allowed to comment?
Indeed it didn't.0 -
I'm not linking to Breitbart, but the recent ORB poll showing stonking remain lead is coming in for a great deal of flak, FWIW0
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Midfielder Fabian Delph is unlikely to make England's final 23-man Euro 2016 squad because of a groin strain, coach Roy Hodgson says.0
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Virginia - Gravis
Clinton 44 .. Trump 38 .. Johnson 6
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/0 -
Bollocks.FrancisUrquhart said:Midfielder Fabian Delph is unlikely to make England's final 23-man Euro 2016 squad because of a groin strain, coach Roy Hodgson says.
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I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.Danny565 said:
Well yes, but people do already believe immigration is a bad thing, and do worry about more countries getting unlimited freedom of movement in future. The point of an advertising campaign on that would surely be to bring those worries that voters already have to the forefront of their minds, rather than to actually persuade them of something they don't believe.Roger said:
Very difficult. If the last four weeks has taught the campaigns anything it's the truth of the advertising maxim that it's impossible to persuade people of things they don't believe.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
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TSE thinks all LEAVERs are thickTOPPING said:
Indeed it didn't.tykejohnno said:Didn't stop you the other night calling someone Thick.
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Turkish Barbers.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?0 -
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
There are quite a few in Coventry and Brum.HurstLlama said:Turkish Barbers.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?0 -
as in, you're irritated, or as in, not trueSouthamObserver said:
Bollocks.FrancisUrquhart said:Midfielder Fabian Delph is unlikely to make England's final 23-man Euro 2016 squad because of a groin strain, coach Roy Hodgson says.
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I wonder if that Breitbart article is anything to do with the sudden shift in betting.
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It's a great poster, up there with the "Labour isn't working" or Ed in Salmond's pocket ones.0
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TSE thinks all LEAVERs are thickSunil_Prasannan said:
Indeed it didn't.TOPPING said:
Didn't stop you the other night calling someone Thick.
Ahh! But you see Sunil, TSE has sold his soul to Cameron and Osborne in a dans un trio sombre. Lets call him Dr.F*cktus.0 -
The poster really does have the look and feel of a classic (successful) Saatchi Tory campaign, which /should/ be a good thing for REMAIN, but might that alienate Labour INners of a certain age in practice?0
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as in, he's summarising the ailment.TheWhiteRabbit said:
as in, you're irritated, or as in, not trueSouthamObserver said:
Bollocks.FrancisUrquhart said:Midfielder Fabian Delph is unlikely to make England's final 23-man Euro 2016 squad because of a groin strain, coach Roy Hodgson says.
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We have 2 in Littlehampton. They open on Sundays and until 7ish. Seem very busy.HurstLlama said:Turkish Barbers.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?0 -
Pretty common in the South Herts area too.Sunil_Prasannan said:
There are quite a few in Coventry and Brum.HurstLlama said:Turkish Barbers.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?0 -
Two have opened in Harpenden within the past two years.HurstLlama said:Turkish Barbers.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?0 -
Oh dear - Leveson anyone ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/guardian-admits-rogue-reporter-fabricated-interviews/
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."0 -
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
I also covered this on my blog the other day.0 -
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
Johann Hari all over again...TGOHF said:Oh dear - Leveson anyone ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/guardian-admits-rogue-reporter-fabricated-interviews/
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."0 -
Personally I think the poster is rubbish.
Leave should release with the main text changed to 'The gocernments plan to stop further centralising of the EU if you vote remain'
Not as crap though as the seesaw poster which will galvanise the wwc leavers to turn out and vote0 -
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.Casino_Royale said:
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
I also covered this on my blog the other day.0 -
I thought that you were in Scotland not a fellow Bedesian?JackW said:
Two have opened in Harpenden within the past two years.HurstLlama said:Turkish Barbers.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?
We may even have unkowingly sat next to each other on Thameslink!0 -
The tip of the iceberg. The Guardian is a rogue newspaper which belongs in the dustbin.TGOHF said:Oh dear - Leveson anyone ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/guardian-admits-rogue-reporter-fabricated-interviews/
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."0 -
Your discussion group shrinking before your eyes.Casino_Royale said:
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
I also covered this on my blog the other day.0 -
The poster is absolutely on the money..0
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My thoughts exactly.Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
Leave has all the best lines. Its problem is the people delivering them. I still think they have a great chance though.Roger said:
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.Danny565 said:
Well yes, but people do already believe immigration is a bad thing, and do worry about more countries getting unlimited freedom of movement in future. The point of an advertising campaign on that would surely be to bring those worries that voters already have to the forefront of their minds, rather than to actually persuade them of something they don't believe.Roger said:
Very difficult. If the last four weeks has taught the campaigns anything it's the truth of the advertising maxim that it's impossible to persuade people of things they don't believe.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.0 -
The seesaw poster came from the racist sectarian gutter. The hand of Cameron, no doubt.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Personally I think the poster is rubbish.
Leave should release with the main text changed to 'The gocernments plan to stop further centralising of the EU if you vote remain'
Not as crap though as the seesaw poster which will galvanise the wwc leavers to turn out and vote0 -
"We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."Casino_Royale said:
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
I also covered this on my blog the other day.
Does that sound realistic to you?
Also the idea that the EU will shrink in importance is not consistent with the view that the Eurozone will rapidly integrate.0 -
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.HurstLlama said:
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
Nobody has a clue what Remain means either, Mike.0
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Certainly not the status quo that is for certain.PClipp said:Nobody has a clue what Remain means either, Mike.
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Now *that* is a good analogy.Polruan said:
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.HurstLlama said:
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
I think there are very few people who don't feel *some* anxiety about some immigration. However, people are also ambivalent about such feelings and will not necessarily welcome somebody else playing on them.Danny565 said:
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
This is potentially fertile ground for Leave but the problem, as you say, is that the tone has to be very carefully judged. And message discipline has not exactly been their long suit.
On a separate note, do you have any insight into how things are progressing in Tooting?0 -
Yes, absolutely.williamglenn said:
"We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."Casino_Royale said:
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
I also covered this on my blog the other day.
Does that sound realistic to you?
Also the idea that the EU will shrink in importance is not consistent with the view that the Eurozone will rapidly integrate.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.0 -
The next poster should be a pair of die or something like it.. a roulette table perhaps.. .. gambling with the future0
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Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".SouthamObserver said:
My thoughts exactly.Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
Speaking of Turkish barbers, I've started going to one who, at the end of every haircut, tries to set fire to my ears. Have other people had this experience?0
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The problem with that poster is that it would be equally true if you replace LEAVE with REMAIN0
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Depressing, isn't it?HurstLlama said:
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".SouthamObserver said:
My thoughts exactly.Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
My wife is now voting Leave for this reason.Polruan said:
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.HurstLlama said:
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
When I explained how Britain could lead a new Europe based on a group of liberal, free-trading independent democracies - collaborating and cooperating but not sharing a common Government - she was inspired.
There is a very positive vision. Where I agree with you is that Leave have been crap at communicating it.0 -
Mr. Wanderer, you're not an elf, are you?
If you are, and he's a dwarf, it makes perfect sense.0 -
Plenty of risks from staying in the EU too, certainly unless EU leaders get a grip on migration with a new report of ISIS bribing smugglers to take them to Europe
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/26/middleeast/libya-isis-europe-doorstep/index.html0 -
My best estimate is he will finish on over 1400 won/pledged, with another 100 unbound and 12 superdelegates in the mix.Scott_P said:@BBCJonSopel: #AP say it's official. @realDonaldTrump has got the 1237 delegates, killed off 16 #GOP rivals. Now just @HillaryClinton in way of Presidency
Trump and Cruz are the only two eligible to be put to the vote at the Convention, and Trump should prevail by about a margin of 3:1...0 -
But that's where there's a genuine difference of opinion. Many of the Leavers here seem to experience EU membership as something akin to intolerable domestic abuse, which is of course a situation you leave at almost any cost or risk. I think it's more like a slightly dodgy relationship where you've not got much to say and you're pissed off that she wants to watch How I Met Your Mother on Netflix all the time. It doesn't beat meeting someone good, but it's no worse than being lonely.HurstLlama said:
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".SouthamObserver said:
My thoughts exactly.Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
Rasmussen national
Clinton 40 Trump 39
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch0 -
Thank you, SRSquareRoot said:The poster is absolutely on the money..
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/7358316136664309770 -
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.0 -
Morning Consult
General Election – binary choice:
Hillary Clinton: 42%
Donald Trump: 40%
Undecided: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 49%
Donald Trump: 38%
Undecided: 13%
General Election – with Gov. Johnson:
Hillary Clinton: 38%
Donald Trump: 35%
Gary Johnson: 10%
Undecided: 17%
https://morningconsult.com/2016/05/24/donald-trump-tax-returns-poll-results/0 -
With the flaming ball on a piece of wire? Its part of the standard treatment and a jolly good idea for those of us richer in years.Wanderer said:Speaking of Turkish barbers, I've started going to one who, at the end of every haircut, tries to set fire to my ears. Have other people had this experience?
0 -
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.Polruan said:
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/media/16603/dutyburdenfs10.pdf
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
0 -
Of courseeek said:The problem with that poster is that it would be equally true if you replace LEAVE with REMAIN
0 -
I don't like the typeface. Am I alone?
LEAVE will be more different from the status quo than REMAIN. This is surely not even in dispute. It's sort of the whole point of LEAVE. So "what we have in the EU is bad, but REMAIN is risky because we can't keep what we have"? I don't think LEAVE should pursue that line. It ends up with LEAVE talking about wonkish European policy topics while REMAIN shouts "recession!"0 -
Trump should rub in his contempt for the GOP establishment and choose a Democrat as his prospective VP.RodCrosby said:
My best estimate is he will finish on over 1400 won/pledged, with another 100 unbound and 12 superdelegates in the mix.Scott_P said:@BBCJonSopel: #AP say it's official. @realDonaldTrump has got the 1237 delegates, killed off 16 #GOP rivals. Now just @HillaryClinton in way of Presidency
Trump and Cruz are the only two eligible to be put to the vote at the Convention, and Trump should prevail by about a margin of 3:1...0 -
Indeed. It seems like almost every day we are seeing the EU try to snatch power away from member states.eek said:The problem with that poster is that it would be equally true if you replace LEAVE with REMAIN
Today it has been revealed that the EU Commission intends to increase the amount of time allocated to advertisements on television.They will also seek to relax the rules on product placement.
Surely this is for Ofcom to decide and not remote politicians in Brussels.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/more-adverts-in-prime-time-shows-under-eu-rules-change-after-bro/0 -
A 70-something Republican who has lived a controversial and high-intensity life should not choose a Democrat as his VP. Many vice-presidents have suddenly become top dog when the great actuary in the sky has come knocking.MonikerDiCanio said:
Trump should rub in his contempt for the GOP establishment and choose a Democrat as his prospective VP.RodCrosby said:
My best estimate is he will finish on over 1400 won/pledged, with another 100 unbound and 12 superdelegates in the mix.Scott_P said:@BBCJonSopel: #AP say it's official. @realDonaldTrump has got the 1237 delegates, killed off 16 #GOP rivals. Now just @HillaryClinton in way of Presidency
Trump and Cruz are the only two eligible to be put to the vote at the Convention, and Trump should prevail by about a margin of 3:1...0 -
Sanders? Would snub the Democrat establishment tooMonikerDiCanio said:
Trump should rub in his contempt for the GOP establishment and choose a Democrat as his prospective VP.RodCrosby said:
My best estimate is he will finish on over 1400 won/pledged, with another 100 unbound and 12 superdelegates in the mix.Scott_P said:@BBCJonSopel: #AP say it's official. @realDonaldTrump has got the 1237 delegates, killed off 16 #GOP rivals. Now just @HillaryClinton in way of Presidency
Trump and Cruz are the only two eligible to be put to the vote at the Convention, and Trump should prevail by about a margin of 3:1...0 -
If the problem is lack of confidence in the political class, it's far from clear how leaving the EU is the answer. If the people won't even elect a government with the will to do so, what hope is there that we are suddenly going to be able to chart a new strategic course with any skill?Luckyguy1983 said:
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.0 -
That's the one. I can see the, er, point of the exercise. It gave me a hell of a shock the first time though.HurstLlama said:
With the flaming ball on a piece of wire? Its part of the standard treatment and a jolly good idea for those of us richer in years.Wanderer said:Speaking of Turkish barbers, I've started going to one who, at the end of every haircut, tries to set fire to my ears. Have other people had this experience?
0 -
I don't think anyone other than Eurofanatics would describe the EU as being a superpower.williamglenn said:
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.0 -
It's not inconsistent whatsoever.williamglenn said:
Also the idea that the EU will shrink in importance is not consistent with the view that the Eurozone will rapidly integrate.
0 -
I don't think they have the best line. The best one is that implied on the poster 'Leaving is a journey into the unknown'. The Leavers keep saying staying is also a journey into the unknown but they haven't persuaded anyone of it yet and I don't think they can.SouthamObserver said:
Leave has all the best lines. Its problem is the people delivering them. I still think they have a great chance though.Roger said:
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.Danny565 said:
Well yes, but people do already believe immigration is a bad thing, and do worry about more countries getting unlimited freedom of movement in future. The point of an advertising campaign on that would surely be to bring those worries that voters already have to the forefront of their minds, rather than to actually persuade them of something they don't believe.Roger said:
Very difficult. If the last four weeks has taught the campaigns anything it's the truth of the advertising maxim that it's impossible to persuade people of things they don't believe.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
Their best bet is to convince people that however scary the 'unknown' it can't be as bad as unlimited immigration. They should try to make their messaging sharper and clearer and as you suggest fronted by people less marmite0 -
Incidentally, an important/recommended update on my computer (which I'm not downloading) would've installed a Get Windows 10 App. So, if you want to avoid that sort of thing, you may wish to switch off automatic installation and check what Microsoft wants you to download.0
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You can't find a better relationship, the one you would really like, all time you stay glued to one your are not really happy in but is better than nothing.Polruan said:
But that's where there's a genuine difference of opinion. Many of the Leavers here seem to experience EU membership as something akin to intolerable domestic abuse, which is of course a situation you leave at almost any cost or risk. I think it's more like a slightly dodgy relationship where you've not got much to say and you're pissed off that she wants to watch How I Met Your Mother on Netflix all the time. It doesn't beat meeting someone good, but it's no worse than being lonely.HurstLlama said:
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".SouthamObserver said:
My thoughts exactly.Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
It looks like they are wishing Leave 'Good Luck'.0
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Didn't you know Bedford was twinned with Auchentennach ? ... Mike Smlthson is a BALD COOTPaul_Bedfordshire said:I thought that you were in Scotland not a fellow Bedesian?
Bedford Auchentennach Liberal Democrat Chairman Of Online Twinning
0 -
How else would you characterise a federal Eurozone? In any regional crisis its already Angela Merkel who's in the driving seat.MP_SE said:
I don't think anyone other than Eurofanatics would describe the EU as being a superpower.williamglenn said:
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.0 -
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I think that is considerably more like what will happen if we stay. We will be shackled to an increasingly integrated Eurozone who will have a permanent qualified majority vote and with our veto surrendered thanks to Dave's renegotiation skills.williamglenn said:
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.0 -
Leadership involves striking out with your vision and making the first move. That's why it's called leading.williamglenn said:
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
And, yes, I do. There is widespread disillusionment amongst the EU right across Europe. We will never lead reform from within.
We will from without.0 -
That is spot on, imo.Roger said:
I don't think they have the best line. The best one is that implied on the poster 'Leaving is a journey into the unknown'. The Leavers keep saying staying is also a journey into the unknown but they haven't persuaded anyone of it yet and I don't think they can.SouthamObserver said:
Leave has all the best lines. Its problem is the people delivering them. I still think they have a great chance though.Roger said:
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.
Their best bet is to convince people that however bad the unknown it can't be as bad as unlimited immigration. They should try to make their messaging sharper and clearer and as you suggest fronted by people less marmite0 -
https://twitter.com/LboroNO2EU/status/729988029201428480williamglenn said:
How else would you characterise a federal Eurozone? In any regional crisis its already Angela Merkel who's in the driving seat.MP_SE said:
I don't think anyone other than Eurofanatics would describe the EU as being a superpower.williamglenn said:
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.0 -
I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US.
We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed.
While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.0 -
Attlee Truman, Churchill Ike, Wilson LBJ, Nixon Heath, Thatcher Reagan, Major Bush 41, Blair Clinton ....MrsB said:I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US.
We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed.
While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.0 -
I won't have self-government either way. On balance I would struggle to argue whether the sclerotic largest-minority-dictatorship of westminster is better or worse when diluted by the confusing-as-fuck process of putting together the European institutions. It's not a clear cut argument. Both are democratic, neither are as democratic as I would like, You seem to have firmer views on that matter.Luckyguy1983 said:
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.Polruan said:
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/media/16603/dutyburdenfs10.pdf
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
The EU is a political project which reinforces an economic paradigm a long way to the right of me but rather to the left of our current government. It's hard for me to experience that as a bad thing in the current circumstances. As I said before, a distinctively left wing vision which would be impeded by EU membership (notably freedom of movement) would be worth leaving for. If I find anyone selling it, I'll be sure to point it out.0 -
Thank you HurstLlama and MP_SE.
In general reply to S.O. and Polruan, in the event of a Leave vote, In my opinion, I would expect the result to be accepted by Parliment, Cameron to resign and a short tory leadership contest resulting in Gove as PM with a mandate to negotiate the withdrawl.
The most sensible option for a withdrawl would be advocated and accepted, which is the "Norway Model" - at least as an interim. As you often tell us the tories are nothing if not pragmatic. I believe labour would also support the "Norway Model" which is as close as it gets to status quo. I would very much hope that the new government would appoint some ministers from the opposition as this event will have very long lasting implications and it needs to be done calmly and correctly. The actual negotiations will be primarily technical. At the end of this we will be outside the EU but with access to the single market.
For more wide ranging change, I personally believe that a general election would be necessary. I can also see the merit in a general election before the negotiations start. One of the good things about the last election was the government has a small majority and therefore will need to follow an acceptable policy to Parliment.
The issue is not that it is in theory possible at a later date to leave the EU by repealing the Act or invoking Article 50, the issue is do we want to be within an EU where we are bound by its social, legal, commercial and political decisons when we are not a member of the core eurozone (and we therefore lack any influence) or do we want to be fully sovereign and therefore able to pursue our social, legal, commercial and political decisions. Remain shoud not be considered to be a yellow card to the EU, it will have very long lasting implications.
To Bromptonaut, whilst I do not agree with you, that is in my opinion a logical position.0 -
Oh the irony!MrsB said:I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US.
We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed.
While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.0 -
In my opinion we won't. Our political class will still attempt to take us in a very wrong direction. But no more than they do presently. It will still be a vast, almost miraculous step forward for freedom and democracy in the UK. And this 'we will lose the single market' angle is nonsense. I'm typing on a laptop, half-watching a telly, wearing clothes (people will be delighted to hear), having just polished off a nice glass of red, all provided by countries outside this mythical single market. They seem to manage.williamglenn said:
If the problem is lack of confidence in the political class, it's far from clear how leaving the EU is the answer. If the people won't even elect a government with the will to do so, what hope is there that we are suddenly going to be able to chart a new strategic course with any skill?Luckyguy1983 said:
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.0 -
Whilst actually I agree entirely with what you are saying it is also worth pointing out as an OT aside that unhappiness with one's boss is the number one reason why people leave their job according to HR experts.Polruan said:
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.HurstLlama said:
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).Polruan said:
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.SouthamObserver said:
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.DavidL said:
Yay, somebody is listening.TheScreamingEagles said:@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.0 -
Well, my mother carer's have their pay cut - about 8% - ok with you middle class remainers? Anything to say at all?0
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There is no way you can call Westminster sclerotic in the context of Europe. Call it many things, but sclerotic is not one of them.Polruan said:
I won't have self-government either way. On balance I would struggle to argue whether the sclerotic largest-minority-dictatorship of westminster is better or worse when diluted by the confusing-as-fuck process of putting together the European institutions. It's not a clear cut argument. Both are democratic, neither are as democratic as I would like, You seem to have firmer views on that matter.Luckyguy1983 said:
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.Polruan said:
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/media/16603/dutyburdenfs10.pdf
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
The EU is a political project which reinforces an economic paradigm a long way to the right of me but rather to the left of our current government. It's hard for me to experience that as a bad thing in the current circumstances. As I said before, a distinctively left wing vision which would be impeded by EU membership (notably freedom of movement) would be worth leaving for. If I find anyone selling it, I'll be sure to point it out.
While if we dislike our government we can kick it out, pure and simple. Just ask Prime Minister Brown. When was the direction of the EU last changed by an election kicking out its government?0 -
LOL. That does have to be one of the most one-eyed comments we have had on here in a long, long time.MrsB said:I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US.
We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed.
While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.0 -
Why is it that we tend to interpret influence in terms of what we can stop from happening rather than what we can do in concert?LucyJones said:
I think that is considerably more like what will happen if we stay. We will be shackled to an increasingly integrated Eurozone who will have a permanent qualified majority vote and with our veto surrendered thanks to Dave's renegotiation skills.williamglenn said:
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?Casino_Royale said:Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
I've been ridiculed for saying it, but outside the EU our interests in European politics will increasingly align with Russia's whether we like it or not. We'll be the only two major historic nation states outside an EU that we don't fully accept or understand and which, rightly or wrongly, we will regard as working against our interests.0
Hey, and good evening all. 
