As I say, it's one hell of a leap in the dark. You seem to be saying that if you vote Leave you have to accept complete uncertainty about what it is you're voting for. You can't even be certain when the UK would actually cease to be an EU member state.
No, you accept exactly the same level of uncertainty as when you vote for your MP.
If a majority of MPs decide to do something then we have no say. But at least with Leave we can respond by sacking them.
I can't sack Juncker or Schultz or Tusk. That matters to me.
No. When I vote for an MP I am presented with a manifesto against which I can judge his or her subsequent performance. The Commission is bound by the decisions of the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. We have the ability to pull out of the EU when we wish to.
Again, Remainers making the point that because we are having a referendum now and could have another in the future that demonstrates we are sovereign so we should vote to Remain now.
Eh?
This isn't an abstract exorcism of our theoretical democratic rights. It's because we don't have sufficient control over our laws and destiny *at the moment*, think it'll get even worse if we stay, and think we'd be much better off (politically and economically) if we took back control.
And that's why you'll vote Leave. I don't share your opinion and don't believe things are as bad as you say. Because of that and because I believe the Single market delivers significant advantages, I will vote to Remain. However, if I believe further down the line that we have lost too much control I may well vote to Leave. If enough of my fellow citizens feel the same then the UK will leave.
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.
See my point about his campaigning...I don't think I could keep that schedule up and I work A LOT of hours and a lot younger than the Trumpster. In addition to all the rallies it is the travelling between them, which in the US is obviously significant distances and across multiple time zones.
If this poster has been made by Saatchi you can be sure they've researched thoroughly the weakness that will most resonate with Remain's target market.
It might seem obvious but you can never tell. I wouldn't have guessed that Miliband being under the thumb of the Nats would have resonated because I couldn't see it because I wasn't who it was targeted at..
Saatchi's advert is incompetent. The immediate impact is fingers crossed for Leave.
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.
Brad Pitt is older than Farage
Not sure we can put Farage's vs Pitt's appearance down to difference stress though....I have a sneaking suspicion that while Farage is getting a general light lunch of 4 pints and 3 bottles of plonk, Pitt is doing 1000 push-ups.
2. From Remain, we here absolutly nothing on the future direction of the EU. The government supports eurozone fiscal union, yet has no say in its development. We do not know how fiscal union will work for non eurozone members. The Lisbon treaty is still being implemented and there are many significant issues relating to sovereignty that will affect us and we do not know how. Most issues are now QMV, where we have c. 12.5% of the vote. We also have the unkown in the national political sphere - both France and Germany are having general elections in 2017 and we do not know how this will affect the EU and its direction of travel. A new treaty has been proposed by the executive bodies of the EU, primarilly to deal with the fiscal union (but who knows what else it will include) - we do not have any information whatsoever on what the United Kingdom's position will be in these negotiations.
As far as I can see, there are two legitimate options. One is to Leave (which I support) and one is to Remain. I do not believe that the government's prospectus for Remain is legitimate - as status quo is not on offer. I can understand people voting to become part (as in an enthusiastic member) of the EU - with all that that entails - but that is not what the government is proposing; we are being offered life inside the EU but outside the critical decision making centre which will be the eurozone. I do not understand how that will give us "influence".
The media and talking head focus upon the "official" campaigns is very, very poor. This is a major decision and there needs to be a proper level of informed debate in the media, society and in Parliment. There is a very large amount of research, analysis and detailed work in the public domain about both the direction of the EU as well as proposed exit solutions. It speaks volumes that this is barely mentioned in either of the "official" campaigns. They are playing it like a general election when the ramifications are much more profound. The media needs to play its role in presenting the facts, analysis and opinion to people in an open way.
The fact is that the politicians have not been able to resolve this issue since at least 1991. They have admitted as much by calling for a referendum to try to settle it. We are then treated to an infantalised campaign by both sides, with the media in general acting very poorly in their role to hold both the government and the opposition to account.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Very difficult. If the last four weeks has taught the campaigns anything it's the truth of the advertising maxim that it's impossible to persuade people of things they don't believe.
Well yes, but people do already believe immigration is a bad thing, and do worry about more countries getting unlimited freedom of movement in future. The point of an advertising campaign on that would surely be to bring those worries that voters already have to the forefront of their minds, rather than to actually persuade them of something they don't believe.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?
The poster really does have the look and feel of a classic (successful) Saatchi Tory campaign, which /should/ be a good thing for REMAIN, but might that alienate Labour INners of a certain age in practice?
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?
We have 2 in Littlehampton. They open on Sundays and until 7ish. Seem very busy.
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."
The tip of the iceberg. The Guardian is a rogue newspaper which belongs in the dustbin.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
Don't believe the propaganda, Polruan. There is a clear vision for what happens when we Leave:
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Very difficult. If the last four weeks has taught the campaigns anything it's the truth of the advertising maxim that it's impossible to persuade people of things they don't believe.
Well yes, but people do already believe immigration is a bad thing, and do worry about more countries getting unlimited freedom of movement in future. The point of an advertising campaign on that would surely be to bring those worries that voters already have to the forefront of their minds, rather than to actually persuade them of something they don't believe.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.
Leave has all the best lines. Its problem is the people delivering them. I still think they have a great chance though.
"We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."
Does that sound realistic to you?
Also the idea that the EU will shrink in importance is not consistent with the view that the Eurozone will rapidly integrate.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
I think there are very few people who don't feel *some* anxiety about some immigration. However, people are also ambivalent about such feelings and will not necessarily welcome somebody else playing on them.
This is potentially fertile ground for Leave but the problem, as you say, is that the tone has to be very carefully judged. And message discipline has not exactly been their long suit.
On a separate note, do you have any insight into how things are progressing in Tooting?
"We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."
Does that sound realistic to you?
Also the idea that the EU will shrink in importance is not consistent with the view that the Eurozone will rapidly integrate.
Yes, absolutely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
My thoughts exactly.
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".
Speaking of Turkish barbers, I've started going to one who, at the end of every haircut, tries to set fire to my ears. Have other people had this experience?
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
My thoughts exactly.
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.
My wife is now voting Leave for this reason.
When I explained how Britain could lead a new Europe based on a group of liberal, free-trading independent democracies - collaborating and cooperating but not sharing a common Government - she was inspired.
There is a very positive vision. Where I agree with you is that Leave have been crap at communicating it.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
My thoughts exactly.
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".
But that's where there's a genuine difference of opinion. Many of the Leavers here seem to experience EU membership as something akin to intolerable domestic abuse, which is of course a situation you leave at almost any cost or risk. I think it's more like a slightly dodgy relationship where you've not got much to say and you're pissed off that she wants to watch How I Met Your Mother on Netflix all the time. It doesn't beat meeting someone good, but it's no worse than being lonely.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
Speaking of Turkish barbers, I've started going to one who, at the end of every haircut, tries to set fire to my ears. Have other people had this experience?
With the flaming ball on a piece of wire? Its part of the standard treatment and a jolly good idea for those of us richer in years.
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
LEAVE will be more different from the status quo than REMAIN. This is surely not even in dispute. It's sort of the whole point of LEAVE. So "what we have in the EU is bad, but REMAIN is risky because we can't keep what we have"? I don't think LEAVE should pursue that line. It ends up with LEAVE talking about wonkish European policy topics while REMAIN shouts "recession!"
The problem with that poster is that it would be equally true if you replace LEAVE with REMAIN
Indeed. It seems like almost every day we are seeing the EU try to snatch power away from member states.
Today it has been revealed that the EU Commission intends to increase the amount of time allocated to advertisements on television.They will also seek to relax the rules on product placement.
Surely this is for Ofcom to decide and not remote politicians in Brussels.
My best estimate is he will finish on over 1400 won/pledged, with another 100 unbound and 12 superdelegates in the mix.
Trump and Cruz are the only two eligible to be put to the vote at the Convention, and Trump should prevail by about a margin of 3:1...
Trump should rub in his contempt for the GOP establishment and choose a Democrat as his prospective VP.
A 70-something Republican who has lived a controversial and high-intensity life should not choose a Democrat as his VP. Many vice-presidents have suddenly become top dog when the great actuary in the sky has come knocking.
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.
If the problem is lack of confidence in the political class, it's far from clear how leaving the EU is the answer. If the people won't even elect a government with the will to do so, what hope is there that we are suddenly going to be able to chart a new strategic course with any skill?
Speaking of Turkish barbers, I've started going to one who, at the end of every haircut, tries to set fire to my ears. Have other people had this experience?
With the flaming ball on a piece of wire? Its part of the standard treatment and a jolly good idea for those of us richer in years.
That's the one. I can see the, er, point of the exercise. It gave me a hell of a shock the first time though.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
I don't think anyone other than Eurofanatics would describe the EU as being a superpower.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Very difficult. If the last four weeks has taught the campaigns anything it's the truth of the advertising maxim that it's impossible to persuade people of things they don't believe.
Well yes, but people do already believe immigration is a bad thing, and do worry about more countries getting unlimited freedom of movement in future. The point of an advertising campaign on that would surely be to bring those worries that voters already have to the forefront of their minds, rather than to actually persuade them of something they don't believe.
Personally I think the "75m Turkish people will be able to come to Britain" line is potentially quite a fruitful line for the Leave Campaign. Frankly, even as a certified "bleeding heart liberal", it worries even me a bit - and I'm not very reassured by the claims at the weekend of vetoes (that we would theoretically have the power to veto Turkish entry to the EU does not mean we'd actually do it).
However, the caveat to that is the Leave Campaign would need to be careful about their tone. It strikes a lot of people as eminent common sense that, purely in terms of numbers, there aren't enough jobs and resources to go round and accommodate endless people immigrating the country - but it's when politicians start castigating immigrants as individuals (see Farage's comments about immigrants with HIV, how Romanian next-door neighbours are thuggish threats, etc.) that makes the average voter feel more uneasy.
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.
Leave has all the best lines. Its problem is the people delivering them. I still think they have a great chance though.
I don't think they have the best line. The best one is that implied on the poster 'Leaving is a journey into the unknown'. The Leavers keep saying staying is also a journey into the unknown but they haven't persuaded anyone of it yet and I don't think they can.
Their best bet is to convince people that however scary the 'unknown' it can't be as bad as unlimited immigration. They should try to make their messaging sharper and clearer and as you suggest fronted by people less marmite
Incidentally, an important/recommended update on my computer (which I'm not downloading) would've installed a Get Windows 10 App. So, if you want to avoid that sort of thing, you may wish to switch off automatic installation and check what Microsoft wants you to download.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
My thoughts exactly.
Crikey, another PB suffering from the political equivalent of battered wives syndrome - "Alright he keeps beating me up but if it gets worse I can always choose to leave, then".
But that's where there's a genuine difference of opinion. Many of the Leavers here seem to experience EU membership as something akin to intolerable domestic abuse, which is of course a situation you leave at almost any cost or risk. I think it's more like a slightly dodgy relationship where you've not got much to say and you're pissed off that she wants to watch How I Met Your Mother on Netflix all the time. It doesn't beat meeting someone good, but it's no worse than being lonely.
You can't find a better relationship, the one you would really like, all time you stay glued to one your are not really happy in but is better than nothing.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
I don't think anyone other than Eurofanatics would describe the EU as being a superpower.
How else would you characterise a federal Eurozone? In any regional crisis its already Angela Merkel who's in the driving seat.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
I think that is considerably more like what will happen if we stay. We will be shackled to an increasingly integrated Eurozone who will have a permanent qualified majority vote and with our veto surrendered thanks to Dave's renegotiation skills.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
Leadership involves striking out with your vision and making the first move. That's why it's called leading.
And, yes, I do. There is widespread disillusionment amongst the EU right across Europe. We will never lead reform from within.
I completely agree. Out of control immigration is something people believe Brexit might solve. If as you say they get the tone right and enough people think it's a deal breaker then they're onto something.
Leave has all the best lines. Its problem is the people delivering them. I still think they have a great chance though.
I don't think they have the best line. The best one is that implied on the poster 'Leaving is a journey into the unknown'. The Leavers keep saying staying is also a journey into the unknown but they haven't persuaded anyone of it yet and I don't think they can.
Their best bet is to convince people that however bad the unknown it can't be as bad as unlimited immigration. They should try to make their messaging sharper and clearer and as you suggest fronted by people less marmite
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
I don't think anyone other than Eurofanatics would describe the EU as being a superpower.
How else would you characterise a federal Eurozone? In any regional crisis its already Angela Merkel who's in the driving seat.
I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US. We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed. While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.
I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US. We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed. While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.
Attlee Truman, Churchill Ike, Wilson LBJ, Nixon Heath, Thatcher Reagan, Major Bush 41, Blair Clinton ....
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
I won't have self-government either way. On balance I would struggle to argue whether the sclerotic largest-minority-dictatorship of westminster is better or worse when diluted by the confusing-as-fuck process of putting together the European institutions. It's not a clear cut argument. Both are democratic, neither are as democratic as I would like, You seem to have firmer views on that matter.
The EU is a political project which reinforces an economic paradigm a long way to the right of me but rather to the left of our current government. It's hard for me to experience that as a bad thing in the current circumstances. As I said before, a distinctively left wing vision which would be impeded by EU membership (notably freedom of movement) would be worth leaving for. If I find anyone selling it, I'll be sure to point it out.
In general reply to S.O. and Polruan, in the event of a Leave vote, In my opinion, I would expect the result to be accepted by Parliment, Cameron to resign and a short tory leadership contest resulting in Gove as PM with a mandate to negotiate the withdrawl.
The most sensible option for a withdrawl would be advocated and accepted, which is the "Norway Model" - at least as an interim. As you often tell us the tories are nothing if not pragmatic. I believe labour would also support the "Norway Model" which is as close as it gets to status quo. I would very much hope that the new government would appoint some ministers from the opposition as this event will have very long lasting implications and it needs to be done calmly and correctly. The actual negotiations will be primarily technical. At the end of this we will be outside the EU but with access to the single market.
For more wide ranging change, I personally believe that a general election would be necessary. I can also see the merit in a general election before the negotiations start. One of the good things about the last election was the government has a small majority and therefore will need to follow an acceptable policy to Parliment.
The issue is not that it is in theory possible at a later date to leave the EU by repealing the Act or invoking Article 50, the issue is do we want to be within an EU where we are bound by its social, legal, commercial and political decisons when we are not a member of the core eurozone (and we therefore lack any influence) or do we want to be fully sovereign and therefore able to pursue our social, legal, commercial and political decisions. Remain shoud not be considered to be a yellow card to the EU, it will have very long lasting implications.
To Bromptonaut, whilst I do not agree with you, that is in my opinion a logical position.
I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US. We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed. While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.
If the problem is lack of confidence in the political class, it's far from clear how leaving the EU is the answer. If the people won't even elect a government with the will to do so, what hope is there that we are suddenly going to be able to chart a new strategic course with any skill?
In my opinion we won't. Our political class will still attempt to take us in a very wrong direction. But no more than they do presently. It will still be a vast, almost miraculous step forward for freedom and democracy in the UK. And this 'we will lose the single market' angle is nonsense. I'm typing on a laptop, half-watching a telly, wearing clothes (people will be delighted to hear), having just polished off a nice glass of red, all provided by countries outside this mythical single market. They seem to manage.
@benrileysmith: Understand Out camp to hammer away at idea backing EU is vote for status quo. Desperate to end perception Remain is safer option.
Yay, somebody is listening.
If it is a vote against the status quo what does that actually mean? What will we get instead? We'll still have a Tory government, only one lead by people even further to the right; the queen will still reign, the newspapers will continue to publish, the judges will continue to sit and so on. The Establishment in all its glory will still be as ensconced as it always has been.
I suppose the logic is that were we, as an electorate, to decide to do something well outside the technocratic paradigm, the EU wouldn't be able to stop it (in contrast to events in Greece say). So it theoretically loosens the hold of the establishment inasmuch as the establishment feels itself protected by that paradigm. Thing is, if we voted in a government on that kind of prospectus, and part of the manifesto was to leave the EU on day 1 of the new Parliament in order to enact the prospectus, there;s nothing stopping that from happening. So it's not clear what the benefit of taking the first step now would be, in the absence of a meaningful vision for a Better Britain (TM) that can only be facilitated outside the EU.
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
If we don't take that first step now then when? I don't really care about myself, I am too old and comfortable for it to matter much either way, but I do care about the country my son is going to live in (assuming he doesn't take my advice and emigrate).
When there's a compelling reason to do it, I guess. You beat Project Fear with hope, vision, etc. and whatever else can be said for the Leave campaign, those are not qualities it's projecting. I'll take the risk of changing my career for an exciting new future. I won't just cos I'm grumpy about my boss.
Whilst actually I agree entirely with what you are saying it is also worth pointing out as an OT aside that unhappiness with one's boss is the number one reason why people leave their job according to HR experts.
Oh don't get me wrong, I agree there are clear visions. I just don't find any of them compelling and/or believe that there are leaders with the ability to deliver them. If Labour had backed leave with a distinctively left-wing vision of the benefits of being able to control (not eliminate) immigration I'd be going the other way. If they get their act to do that in the future, I'd vote for them on a manifesto including leaving.
What do you mean by compelling? What needs to be compelling about self-government? This whole argument is ridiculous.
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
I won't have self-government either way. On balance I would struggle to argue whether the sclerotic largest-minority-dictatorship of westminster is better or worse when diluted by the confusing-as-fuck process of putting together the European institutions. It's not a clear cut argument. Both are democratic, neither are as democratic as I would like, You seem to have firmer views on that matter.
The EU is a political project which reinforces an economic paradigm a long way to the right of me but rather to the left of our current government. It's hard for me to experience that as a bad thing in the current circumstances. As I said before, a distinctively left wing vision which would be impeded by EU membership (notably freedom of movement) would be worth leaving for. If I find anyone selling it, I'll be sure to point it out.
There is no way you can call Westminster sclerotic in the context of Europe. Call it many things, but sclerotic is not one of them.
While if we dislike our government we can kick it out, pure and simple. Just ask Prime Minister Brown. When was the direction of the EU last changed by an election kicking out its government?
I have disagreed and agreed with a lot of people on this site on a lot of different issues over a long period of time. But this referendum is the first time UK politics has started to resemble politics in the US. We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed. While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.
LOL. That does have to be one of the most one-eyed comments we have had on here in a long, long time.
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
And does the UK want to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe?
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
I think that is considerably more like what will happen if we stay. We will be shackled to an increasingly integrated Eurozone who will have a permanent qualified majority vote and with our veto surrendered thanks to Dave's renegotiation skills.
Why is it that we tend to interpret influence in terms of what we can stop from happening rather than what we can do in concert?
I've been ridiculed for saying it, but outside the EU our interests in European politics will increasingly align with Russia's whether we like it or not. We'll be the only two major historic nation states outside an EU that we don't fully accept or understand and which, rightly or wrongly, we will regard as working against our interests.
Comments
Reminds me of my surprise when I learnt Ming Campbell was younger than Paddy Ashdown.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjYe1xTUoAAwk2S.jpg:large
Third most watched item: Boris and Cynical Immigration.
Indeed it didn't.
Clinton 44 .. Trump 38 .. Johnson 6
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/
I went to the local town yesterday and whilst there I popped into see my new barber for a shave and a tidy up of the old walrus. He is a young Turkish bloke, very good and his prices are reasonable without being cheap (couldn't go there for a shave every morning as I did when with barbers when I lived in Portugal and Oman). Wandering around afterwards, doing some shopping, I came across another newly owned Turkish barber shop.
Two turkish barbers in one smallish Sussex town? Is this a local phenomena or is it more widespread?
Anyway, that's what's tipped me from Leave to Remain in the last fortnight. I just have to avoid seeing any pictures of Cameron before June 23rd if I want to be retain the motivation to vote in line with his campaign.
Ahh! But you see Sunil, TSE has sold his soul to Cameron and Osborne in a dans un trio sombre. Lets call him Dr.F*cktus.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/26/guardian-admits-rogue-reporter-fabricated-interviews/
"The Guardian has admitted that a rogue reporter fabricated interviews in articles for the newspaper and falsely claimed to have been present at events he wrote about."
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal
I also covered this on my blog the other day.
Leave should release with the main text changed to 'The gocernments plan to stop further centralising of the EU if you vote remain'
Not as crap though as the seesaw poster which will galvanise the wwc leavers to turn out and vote
We may even have unkowingly sat next to each other on Thameslink!
Does that sound realistic to you?
Also the idea that the EU will shrink in importance is not consistent with the view that the Eurozone will rapidly integrate.
This is potentially fertile ground for Leave but the problem, as you say, is that the tone has to be very carefully judged. And message discipline has not exactly been their long suit.
On a separate note, do you have any insight into how things are progressing in Tooting?
If the UK wants to positively influence the future shape and direction of Europe through its leadership the only way it can do it is to Leave.
I find it really exciting.
When I explained how Britain could lead a new Europe based on a group of liberal, free-trading independent democracies - collaborating and cooperating but not sharing a common Government - she was inspired.
There is a very positive vision. Where I agree with you is that Leave have been crap at communicating it.
If you are, and he's a dwarf, it makes perfect sense.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/26/middleeast/libya-isis-europe-doorstep/index.html
Trump and Cruz are the only two eligible to be put to the vote at the Convention, and Trump should prevail by about a margin of 3:1...
Clinton 40 Trump 39
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/735831613666430977
Starting from where we are, the only way in which leaving would help to achieve leadership is if it were the start of the unravelling of the entire EU project. Otherwise we'd just be voting to be an island version of Canada coasting along in the slipsteam of the superpower next door.
General Election – binary choice:
Hillary Clinton: 42%
Donald Trump: 40%
Undecided: 18%
Bernie Sanders: 49%
Donald Trump: 38%
Undecided: 13%
General Election – with Gov. Johnson:
Hillary Clinton: 38%
Donald Trump: 35%
Gary Johnson: 10%
Undecided: 17%
https://morningconsult.com/2016/05/24/donald-trump-tax-returns-poll-results/
This is what you're paying HMG when you're buying a bottle of Scotch - 75%:
http://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/media/16603/dutyburdenfs10.pdf
Add to this green levies. The living wage, when people in China working for 6p an hour.
These are the forces that are shaping our economy. It has shit all to do with being part of this mythical 'free trade area' whose loss will at most add 4% on to things.
The EU is a political project. It has nothing to do with economic benefit - certainly not for a net contributor.
LEAVE will be more different from the status quo than REMAIN. This is surely not even in dispute. It's sort of the whole point of LEAVE. So "what we have in the EU is bad, but REMAIN is risky because we can't keep what we have"? I don't think LEAVE should pursue that line. It ends up with LEAVE talking about wonkish European policy topics while REMAIN shouts "recession!"
Today it has been revealed that the EU Commission intends to increase the amount of time allocated to advertisements on television.They will also seek to relax the rules on product placement.
Surely this is for Ofcom to decide and not remote politicians in Brussels.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/25/more-adverts-in-prime-time-shows-under-eu-rules-change-after-bro/
Their best bet is to convince people that however scary the 'unknown' it can't be as bad as unlimited immigration. They should try to make their messaging sharper and clearer and as you suggest fronted by people less marmite
Bedford Auchentennach Liberal Democrat Chairman Of Online Twinning
And, yes, I do. There is widespread disillusionment amongst the EU right across Europe. We will never lead reform from within.
We will from without.
We mock Trump for the nonsense he spouts, a lot of it made up. But when Boris and Penny Mordaunt and Priti Patel and everyone else on the Leave side make stuff up about Turkey and bananas, people who otherwise are generally reasonable come on here and defend them. Or claim that anyone who criticises Brexit is some sort of EU stooge or spy - like it's EU under the bed.
While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.
The EU is a political project which reinforces an economic paradigm a long way to the right of me but rather to the left of our current government. It's hard for me to experience that as a bad thing in the current circumstances. As I said before, a distinctively left wing vision which would be impeded by EU membership (notably freedom of movement) would be worth leaving for. If I find anyone selling it, I'll be sure to point it out.
'While they certainly stretch and spin, Remain don't make things up wholesale.'
You must have missed that stuff about World War 3.
In general reply to S.O. and Polruan, in the event of a Leave vote, In my opinion, I would expect the result to be accepted by Parliment, Cameron to resign and a short tory leadership contest resulting in Gove as PM with a mandate to negotiate the withdrawl.
The most sensible option for a withdrawl would be advocated and accepted, which is the "Norway Model" - at least as an interim. As you often tell us the tories are nothing if not pragmatic. I believe labour would also support the "Norway Model" which is as close as it gets to status quo. I would very much hope that the new government would appoint some ministers from the opposition as this event will have very long lasting implications and it needs to be done calmly and correctly. The actual negotiations will be primarily technical. At the end of this we will be outside the EU but with access to the single market.
For more wide ranging change, I personally believe that a general election would be necessary. I can also see the merit in a general election before the negotiations start. One of the good things about the last election was the government has a small majority and therefore will need to follow an acceptable policy to Parliment.
The issue is not that it is in theory possible at a later date to leave the EU by repealing the Act or invoking Article 50, the issue is do we want to be within an EU where we are bound by its social, legal, commercial and political decisons when we are not a member of the core eurozone (and we therefore lack any influence) or do we want to be fully sovereign and therefore able to pursue our social, legal, commercial and political decisions. Remain shoud not be considered to be a yellow card to the EU, it will have very long lasting implications.
To Bromptonaut, whilst I do not agree with you, that is in my opinion a logical position.
While if we dislike our government we can kick it out, pure and simple. Just ask Prime Minister Brown. When was the direction of the EU last changed by an election kicking out its government?
I've been ridiculed for saying it, but outside the EU our interests in European politics will increasingly align with Russia's whether we like it or not. We'll be the only two major historic nation states outside an EU that we don't fully accept or understand and which, rightly or wrongly, we will regard as working against our interests.