What I am not sure about in the Scottish system is the merits of having a series of top up MSPs selected from regional lists instead of a national one. It seems to encourage a disproportionate result and means that the value of the list vote varies considerably depending on what part of the country you are in. A list vote for the SNP in the West of Scotland region, for example, was a complete waste of time whilst a list vote in other areas was not.
I think if we are to have top up MSPs to reflect the overall share of the vote we should just have a single vote which counts for both and then even out the votes per MSP on a national level.
To be honest I'm still not seeing any evidence of SNP-to_Con switching as opposed to SNP stay-at-home-voters and Tory Surge accounting for Turnout increases.
Well there are two competing narratives then.
Scenario 1. Voters who previously put a tick in the SNP box decided on this occasion at this election to vote for an alternative.
Scenario 2. SNP voters, enthused by the referendum and the General election, though nah, can't be arsed this time, while voters who didn't bother previously got up off the couch specifically to put a tick in a Tory box.
Choose whichever one helps you sleep better at night
Referendum Turnout: 85% General election Turnout: 71% Scottish Election Turnout: 55% (+5% on 2011)
It's pretty clear that the 5% increase was pretty much all Tory voters.
In Moray - one of the highlighted seats for massive SNP Vote decline shocker their vote share went from 58% to 47%. The gap in 2011 was 11,000 votes. The seat was the very definition of safe seat.
An even then the SNP vote fell by less than 1000 votes. The Conservative vote rose just shy of 7000 whilst overall turnout was up 3.4 percentage points in the constituency. With no change in the Labour or Lib Dem vote the only logical conclusion is Scenario 2
SNP voters in rocks solid safe seat don't bother whilst Tory Surge gets out long term Tory inclined but previously non-voting people.
What I am not sure about in the Scottish system is the merits of having a series of top up MSPs selected from regional lists instead of a national one. It seems to encourage a disproportionate result and means that the value of the list vote varies considerably depending on what part of the country you are in. A list vote for the SNP in the West of Scotland region, for example, was a complete waste of time whilst a list vote in other areas was not.
I think if we are to have top up MSPs to reflect the overall share of the vote we should just have a single vote which counts for both and then even out the votes per MSP on a national level.
How important is the constituency link with MSPs?
No clear idea but presumably they will get some case work on devolved matters and they certainly work hard to get local publicity in the local press. I suppose as the number of devolved matters increases the work load may too. I also think some people like to go to a list MSP with the right rosette rather than a constituency MSP with the wrong one but how big an issue that is I really can't say.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
That shoe story annoys me.
Out-of-work actress takes a temp job, signs to accept the T&Cs (including the dress code), fails to abide by what she signed up to and is sent home.
5 months later she starts making a fuss.
I wonder what prompted her to start a bit of self-promotion?
I heard her on R5 earlier, how she was broadening the issue to a more significant message and her objective was to get a petition up to 100k - had a whiff of that self-promoting solicitor lady who got so much attention months ago.
There's definitely a genuine issue here but it sounded like a grandstanding oppo hearing her talk....
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
To be honest I'm still not seeing any evidence of SNP-to_Con switching as opposed to SNP stay-at-home-voters and Tory Surge accounting for Turnout increases.
Well there are two competing narratives then.
Scenario 1. Voters who previously put a tick in the SNP box decided on this occasion at this election to vote for an alternative.
Scenario 2. SNP voters, enthused by the referendum and the General election, though nah, can't be arsed this time, while voters who didn't bother previously got up off the couch specifically to put a tick in a Tory box.
Choose whichever one helps you sleep better at night
Referendum Turnout: 85% General election Turnout: 71% Scottish Election Turnout: 55% (+5% on 2011)
It's pretty clear that the 5% increase was pretty much all Tory voters.
In Moray - one of the highlighted seats for massive SNP Vote decline shocker their vote share went from 58% to 47%. The gap in 2011 was 11,000 votes. The seat was the very definition of safe seat.
An even then the SNP vote fell by less than 1000 votes. The Conservative vote rose just shy of 7000 whilst overall turnout was up 3.4 percentage points in the constituency. With no change in the Labour or Lib Dem vote the only logical conclusion is Scenario 2
SNP voters in rocks solid safe seat don't bother whilst Tory Surge gets out long term Tory inclined but previously non-voting people.
I'm hearing the Can't Be Arsed Party are looking forward to a significant swing to them from the SNP.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
Dammit. Back to the drawing board for our new nurses uniforms....
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
Dammit. Back to the drawing board for our new nurses uniforms....
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Oh yes, there is absolutely nothing wrong with requiring a uniform or a suit or a tie or no trousers for women. Given I attend work most days dressed as a penguin who for some reason has horse hair on his head I have limited sympathy for her but her erstwhile employers are idiots.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Oh yes, there is absolutely nothing wrong with requiring a uniform or a suit or a tie or no trousers for women. Given I attend work most days dressed as a penguin who for some reason has horse hair on his head I have limited sympathy for her but her erstwhile employers are idiots.
Her circumstances are (almost) irrelevant, I'm playing the ball here
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Oh yes, there is absolutely nothing wrong with requiring a uniform or a suit or a tie or no trousers for women. Given I attend work most days dressed as a penguin who for some reason has horse hair on his head I have limited sympathy for her but her erstwhile employers are idiots.
There's good reason to suppose high heels (at least if they are worn daily) are damaging to your feet and your spine. It's stupid to wear them and wicked to force other people to.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
I assumed this was the wages, allowances, expenses and pensions they had received as a result of the positions they had held in the EU. Surely these are not current salaries?
If any companies/organisations want someone to come up with an appropriate fashion code, I'm available.
Dare I suggest that such a dress code for Remainers should be copied from Eurovision contestants, while Leavers make do with Anne Widdecombe's charity clothing donations?
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
I assumed this was the wages, allowances, expenses and pensions they had received as a result of the positions they had held in the EU. Surely these are not current salaries?
Well, it seems a little misleading then. I was under the impression that's what they were receiving now!
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
I assumed this was the wages, allowances, expenses and pensions they had received as a result of the positions they had held in the EU. Surely these are not current salaries?
At least they did something for the money. Compare and contrast with what our UKIP MEP's have trousered for doing bugger all.
@tnewtondunn: EU referendum TV debates heading for the courts: Vote Leave say they will sue ITV for asking Farage on vs PM instead of their man, Gove.
Hmm. The blue-on-blue aspect aside, if I were BSE I might prefer to see Gove on. He's unpopular, he has a face for radio. He may speak cogently but does that matter?
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Doesn't stop my GP wearing them.
I was amused to see that the Christmas tree in my GP's surgery had piles of booze and chocolate beneath it.
Then again, booze and chocolate can make you happy. A shoe is just a shoe.
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
I assumed this was the wages, allowances, expenses and pensions they had received as a result of the positions they had held in the EU. Surely these are not current salaries?
At least they did something for the money. Compare and contrast with what our UKIP MEP's have trousered for doing bugger all.
I wouldn't say that. The only vides I every see from the EU parliament are when UKIP members give speeches.
If any companies/organisations want someone to come up with an appropriate fashion code, I'm available.
Dare I suggest that such a dress code for Remainers should be copied from Eurovision contestants, while Leavers make do with Anne Widdecombe's charity clothing donations?
I was going to link to a possible Remain outfit involving a fair amount of glossy rubber given the amount of obedience and submissive behaviour required to be members of the EU but on reflection...perhaps not.
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
I assumed this was the wages, allowances, expenses and pensions they had received as a result of the positions they had held in the EU. Surely these are not current salaries?
Well, it seems a little misleading then. I was under the impression that's what they were receiving now!
You don't fine combined EU pensions of more than £160K pa obscene enough? Well you could always add on his House of Commons pension as well.
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
I assumed this was the wages, allowances, expenses and pensions they had received as a result of the positions they had held in the EU. Surely these are not current salaries?
Well, it seems a little misleading then. I was under the impression that's what they were receiving now!
You don't fine combined EU pensions of more than £160K pa obscene enough? Well you could always add on his House of Commons pension as well.
Yes I do, and it's tax free to make matters worse. Still doesn't make it less misleading.
If any companies/organisations want someone to come up with an appropriate fashion code, I'm available.
Dare I suggest that such a dress code for Remainers should be copied from Eurovision contestants, while Leavers make do with Anne Widdecombe's charity clothing donations?
I don't see Edinburgh West or South, NE Fife or East Lothian in that selection - the Scottish electorate is far more sophisticated about tactical voting, especially in constituencies, than this simplistic analysis suggests.
I don't see Edinburgh West or South, NE Fife or East Lothian in that selection - the Scottish electorate is far more sophisticated about tactical voting, especially in constituencies, than this simplistic analysis suggests.
Doesn't the analysis simply show tactical voting at work? Not sure how you can get more sophisticated than that.
If any companies/organisations want someone to come up with an appropriate fashion code, I'm available.
Dare I suggest that such a dress code for Remainers should be copied from Eurovision contestants, while Leavers make do with Anne Widdecombe's charity clothing donations?
No, cavaliers and round heads.
Were round heads not right but repulsive while the cavaliers were wrong but wromantic?
Not sure either side tick both boxes of either option.
@tnewtondunn: EU referendum TV debates heading for the courts: Vote Leave say they will sue ITV for asking Farage on vs PM instead of their man, Gove.
Hmm. The blue-on-blue aspect aside, if I were BSE I might prefer to see Gove on. He's unpopular, he has a face for radio. He may speak cogently but does that matter?
Quite. Neither is ideal, but Farage has more appeal to core Labour voters. Gove will merely be preaching to the kind of 'retired colonel' Tory voter who is already 100% in the bag for Leave. Boris would be much better than either, though.
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Doesn't stop my GP wearing them.
Is he embracing transgender issues as part of his practice?
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
@tnewtondunn: EU referendum TV debates heading for the courts: Vote Leave say they will sue ITV for asking Farage on vs PM instead of their man, Gove.
Hmm. The blue-on-blue aspect aside, if I were BSE I might prefer to see Gove on. He's unpopular, he has a face for radio. He may speak cogently but does that matter?
Quite. Neither is ideal, but Farage has more appeal to core Labour voters. Gove will merely be preaching to the kind of 'retired colonel' Tory voter who is already 100% in the bag for Leave. Boris would be much better than either, though.
Speaking of core Labour voters, do you think Brown's intervention will have any effect there?
Failed and discredited politicians on the EU gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Turfing those two spongers out is almost the best reason I can think of for voting LEAVE
Do you really think their pensions etc would stop? More likely the UK taxpayer would end up agreeing to pay them as part of the leaving negotiations. The sums are truly obscene.
I assume their incomes are from directorships, although I'm not sue how you can be in a situation where you recieve £4mn per annum in allowances!
You can't - the sum of £4m comes from adding together many, many years of allowances, most of which will be staff pay.
@tnewtondunn: EU referendum TV debates heading for the courts: Vote Leave say they will sue ITV for asking Farage on vs PM instead of their man, Gove.
Hmm. The blue-on-blue aspect aside, if I were BSE I might prefer to see Gove on. He's unpopular, he has a face for radio. He may speak cogently but does that matter?
Quite. Neither is ideal, but Farage has more appeal to core Labour voters. Gove will merely be preaching to the kind of 'retired colonel' Tory voter who is already 100% in the bag for Leave. Boris would be much better than either, though.
Speaking of core Labour voters, do you think Brown's intervention will have any effect there?
Probably not him alone (I don't actually think Brown excites very strong opinions eitherway these days), but if it's part of a cumulative effort of the whole "Labour establishment" going on about how "the proper Labour thing to do" is to vote Remain then it might have some impact.
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Gotcha, so it indicates poll leads rather than trending in a particular direction. Still, very nice!
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
Dammit. Back to the drawing board for our new nurses uniforms....
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Gotcha, so it indicates poll leads rather than trending in a particular direction. Still, very nice!
Well those leads - even just as equal sized squares - may give some impression of a trend, worthy of further investigation. Almost like Morse Code!
-.----.------ (not much to see here, probably a win for -)
At the moment they are all three squares [the minimum setting owing to a lack of polls], but that will soon change...
On social media he claimed to be the manager of a takeaway in Birmingham and also a student in the city – all while supposedly living under refugee status in an asylum hostel in Bari.
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Gotcha, so it indicates poll leads rather than trending in a particular direction. Still, very nice!
Well those leads - even just as equal sized squares - may give some impression of a trend, worthy of further investigation. Almost like Morse Code!
-.----.------ (not much to see here, probably a win for -)
At the moment they are all three squares [the minimum setting owing to a lack of polls], but that will soon change...
Another point.. shouldn't cell AA be "clinton", since she is the one winning on the current forecast?
The Popular Vote (PV) sparkline, on the other hand, is configured to show actual leads [and highlights the best poll for each candidate in the timeline - I said sparklines were sexy!].
And my eyes tell me Hillary's PV lead might be narrowing...
ITV led by Robert Preston? Talk about rising in the ranks! Didn't he join ITV a few weeks ago? LOL
Yup.
If Leave do lose on June 23rd, the amount of whingeing by some Leavers could power the national grid for decades to come.
My God that's chilling: 'ITV has effectively joined the official IN campaign and they'll be consequences for its future.' So Leave are planning to close down unsupportive media outlets? Is this coups d'état to be mounted after a Leave vote, a Remain vote or both?
ITV led by Robert Preston? Talk about rising in the ranks! Didn't he join ITV a few weeks ago? LOL
Yup.
If Leave do lose on June 23rd, the amount of whingeing by some Leavers could power the national grid for decades to come.
My God that's chilling: 'ITV has effectively joined the official IN campaign and they'll be consequences for its future.' So Leave are planning to close down unsupportive media outlets? Is this coups d'état to be mounted after a Leave vote, a Remain vote or both?
If it becomes a 'who governs?' vote, the people on the Leave side won't be in a good position to win.
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Gotcha, so it indicates poll leads rather than trending in a particular direction. Still, very nice!
Well those leads - even just as equal sized squares - may give some impression of a trend, worthy of further investigation. Almost like Morse Code!
-.----.------ (not much to see here, probably a win for -)
At the moment they are all three squares [the minimum setting owing to a lack of polls], but that will soon change...
Another point.. shouldn't cell AA be "clinton", since she is the one winning on the current forecast?
AA35?
No, Trump!
It is telling you how much of a swing [6.0%, better described as meta-margin; we in the UK would call it a 3.0% swing] Trump (the forecast underdog) needs to overturn the current forecast, in order to win.
In other words, he needs to win every state down to North Carolina to eke out a 273 Electoral Vote victory [his easiest path, based on current polling, as shown in the sheet]...
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Gotcha, so it indicates poll leads rather than trending in a particular direction. Still, very nice!
Well those leads - even just as equal sized squares - may give some impression of a trend, worthy of further investigation. Almost like Morse Code!
-.----.------ (not much to see here, probably a win for -)
At the moment they are all three squares [the minimum setting owing to a lack of polls], but that will soon change...
Another point.. shouldn't cell AA be "clinton", since she is the one winning on the current forecast?
AA35?
No, Trump!
It is telling you how much of a swing [6.0%, better described as meta-margin; we in the UK would call it a 3.0% swing] Trump (the forecast underdog) needs to overturn the current forecast, in order to win.
In other words, he needs to win every state down to North Carolina to eke out a 273 Electoral Vote victory [his easiest path, based on current polling, as shown in the sheet]...
Ah okay, so if Trump started to lead in the EV forecast, that box would change to describe what was the swing state Clinton needed in order to win?
Without Farage there'd be no referendum and whatever other faults he has by and large being an effective communicator isn't one of them. He'll reach a part of the electorate that Leave need to actually turnout and vote if they're to have the remotest chance of winning. I'm not sure that same segment would respond to Gove. So while I'm not a fan of the man or his party the Leave campaign really shouldn't fret too much.
David Cameron will not debate against any Tory ahead of EU referendum
The Prime Minister’s has set a “red line” over the prospect of a televised debate against a Tory Eurosceptic such as Boris Johnson.
The disclosure will come as a major blow to the BBC, which had been pushing for a TV debate featuring the Prime Minister against one of his Eurosceptic Cabinet colleagues, most likely Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary.
Asked if he would take part in a head-to-head contest with the Prime Minister, Mr Johnson told the Spectator magazine: “Put it this way. I think I’d look a bit of a wimp if I said no… For me to recuse myself from the debates would be wet.”
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Gotcha, so it indicates poll leads rather than trending in a particular direction. Still, very nice!
Well those leads - even just as equal sized squares - may give some impression of a trend, worthy of further investigation. Almost like Morse Code!
-.----.------ (not much to see here, probably a win for -)
At the moment they are all three squares [the minimum setting owing to a lack of polls], but that will soon change...
Another point.. shouldn't cell AA be "clinton", since she is the one winning on the current forecast?
AA35?
No, Trump!
It is telling you how much of a swing [6.0%, better described as meta-margin; we in the UK would call it a 3.0% swing] Trump (the forecast underdog) needs to overturn the current forecast, in order to win.
In other words, he needs to win every state down to North Carolina to eke out a 273 Electoral Vote victory [his easiest path, based on current polling, as shown in the sheet]...
Ah okay, so if Trump started to lead in the EV forecast, that box would change to describe what was the swing state Clinton needed in order to win?
Yup!
[fingers crossed] (^_-)
Lots of faffing today with the signs/colours/which way is "up"?, etc...
Pollsters CSS [the bastards] seem to have an ad-hoc way of presenting the data. [Who is in the leftmost column? - Trump? Clinton? dunno - need a separate check, to decide which way to deduct one from the other, and propagate this through some deeply-embedded formulae in, for example, the sparklines...]
This has got to be one of your most biased posts ever Mike.
One Salmond did not "moan" about the system. I actually listened to the LBC SHOW which you clearly did not and he was very cheerful about the SNP result - pointing out that it was the highest vote at 47 per cent for any governing party in western Europe!
Second he merely repeated evidence he first gave to the Electoral Commission (I think in 2002) arguing for a national rather than a local list and for good reason. It would help iron out some of the kinks in the system. This view is more relevant now given that the Scottish Parliament and not Westminster will now control the elections. Salmond has never liked the regional list and has said so many times before.
Third the SNP have never supported FPP and still do not, despite gaining from it last year. This principled approach rather marks them out from the crowd.
Nothing about Salmond's interview or track record on this justifies your attack which makes you look like what the Speaker might describe as an "irritating" Liberal Democrat.
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Clinton has led by double digits in every NY poll
I'm sure, but the median DEM lead is 20%, significantly 'more GOP' than in 2012 (DEM 28%) - hence the ^ arrow - while the sparkline still shows a continuous DEM lead in the latest polls...
Catch my drift? If the NY sparkline should suddenly go
The flats story must be the most obvious employment tribunal in years.
Unless all the men have to wear high heels too I can see at least one major problem, and one that does not require a 2 year qualifying employment period at that. Of course if they do all have to wear high heels then this might be the least of their problems.
No its not. It is permitted to have differences between the sexes but they must be reasonable and for a business related reason. High heels are never going to qualify unless it is universal.
My work dress code is very relaxed, but I can understand where people are required to wear a suit/ uniform to project a certain image. Heels are just plain damaging to your feet
Doesn't stop my GP wearing them.
Is he embracing transgender issues as part of his practice?
Without Farage there'd be no referendum and whatever other faults he has by and large being an effective communicator isn't one of them. He'll reach a part of the electorate that Leave need to actually turnout and vote if they're to have the remotest chance of winning. I'm not sure that same segment would respond to Gove. So while I'm not a fan of the man or his party the Leave campaign really shouldn't fret too much.
Good points but Britain's 'rump, Nigel Farage, is a loose cannon. He could help firm up Remain.
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
The excel-fu is strong with this one. Do the red/blue blocks represent leads for their respective party, or a poll that has moved in the direction of that party, but the lead has not necessarily changed.
If you are talking about the sparklines next to the ^ v arrows for the states.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
Clinton has led by double digits in every NY poll
I'm sure, but the median DEM lead is 20%, significantly 'more GOP' than in 2012 (DEM 28%) - hence the ^ arrow - while the sparkline still shows a continuous DEM lead in the latest polls...
Catch my drift? If the NY sparkline should suddenly go
.....-
Hey! Maybe we have an interesting situation?
If Hillary cannot win NY where she was Senator she may as well give up
"The United States is investigating an international aid group headed by David Miliband over allegations of corruption in projects intended to help Syrian civilians and refugees agen bola online | domain hosting
Comments
Out-of-work actress takes a temp job, signs to accept the T&Cs (including the dress code), fails to abide by what she signed up to and is sent home.
5 months later she starts making a fuss.
I wonder what prompted her to start a bit of self-promotion?
General election Turnout: 71%
Scottish Election Turnout: 55% (+5% on 2011)
It's pretty clear that the 5% increase was pretty much all Tory voters.
In Moray - one of the highlighted seats for massive SNP Vote decline shocker their vote share went from 58% to 47%. The gap in 2011 was 11,000 votes. The seat was the very definition of safe seat.
An even then the SNP vote fell by less than 1000 votes. The Conservative vote rose just shy of 7000 whilst overall turnout was up 3.4 percentage points in the constituency. With no change in the Labour or Lib Dem vote the only logical conclusion is Scenario 2
SNP voters in rocks solid safe seat don't bother whilst Tory Surge gets out long term Tory inclined but previously non-voting people.
There's definitely a genuine issue here but it sounded like a grandstanding oppo hearing her talk....
Sensible Brit's will surely pull the plug on this nonsense on 23rd June.
Still no joy for Labour though.
Then again, booze and chocolate can make you happy. A shoe is just a shoe.
You don't look a day older than the next POTUS, whoever s/he may be...
[historical date of note: exactly two years since the first Tory poll crossover, predicted with precision on this site a year in advance]
Not sure either side tick both boxes of either option.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit?usp=sharing
Hopefully I'll integrate Betfair, 538 and PEC forecasts into this sheet in the fullness of time...
PB's own One-Stop-Shop for the greatest POTUS election in our lifetimes.
Ah, right, a custom forecast.
It does have the potential to be an historic election.
Yes, it's called a win/loss chart, and is just a simple sparkline of the latest polls, showing the winner of each. Just enough info to make an informed judgment, as to whether further investigation is required.
E.g. New York is trending GOP [since 2012], but all the latest polls still show it safely DEM.
If any poll should (miraculously) show a GOP lead, the sparkline will flag it up as a pink square above the axis...
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/730523672306429956
If Leave do lose on June 23rd, the amount of whingeing by some Leavers could power the national grid for decades to come.
https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/730060175768489985'
In case anyone was wondering why they are so enthusiastic about the EU.
-.----.------ (not much to see here, probably a win for -)
At the moment they are all three squares [the minimum setting owing to a lack of polls], but that will soon change...
Quite a good article on why London votes as it does and what it means for the longer term:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/how-london-became-a-labour-city-and-what-it-means-for-british-politics
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3585722/Bomb-plotter-s-tour-Britain-Afghan-suspected-planning-terror-attacks-used-fake-IDs-visit-high-profile-UK-sites.html
And my eyes tell me Hillary's PV lead might be narrowing...
No, Trump!
It is telling you how much of a swing [6.0%, better described as meta-margin; we in the UK would call it a 3.0% swing] Trump (the forecast underdog) needs to overturn the current forecast, in order to win.
In other words, he needs to win every state down to North Carolina to eke out a 273 Electoral Vote victory [his easiest path, based on current polling, as shown in the sheet]...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36270371
For a channel that got shut down, sorry went "online only", a new logo and now a new base. They might as well not bothered changing anything.
The Prime Minister’s has set a “red line” over the prospect of a televised debate against a Tory Eurosceptic such as Boris Johnson.
The disclosure will come as a major blow to the BBC, which had been pushing for a TV debate featuring the Prime Minister against one of his Eurosceptic Cabinet colleagues, most likely Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary.
Asked if he would take part in a head-to-head contest with the Prime Minister, Mr Johnson told the Spectator magazine: “Put it this way. I think I’d look a bit of a wimp if I said no… For me to recuse myself from the debates would be wet.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/11/david-cameron-will-not-debate-against-any-tory-ahead-of-eu-refer/
Pasties in the air like you just don't care.....
[fingers crossed] (^_-)
Lots of faffing today with the signs/colours/which way is "up"?, etc...
Pollsters CSS [the bastards] seem to have an ad-hoc way of presenting the data. [Who is in the leftmost column? - Trump? Clinton? dunno - need a separate check, to decide which way to deduct one from the other, and propagate this through some deeply-embedded formulae in, for example, the sparklines...]
One Salmond did not "moan" about the system. I actually listened to the LBC SHOW which you clearly did not and he was very cheerful about the SNP result - pointing out that it was the highest vote at 47 per cent for any governing party in western Europe!
Second he merely repeated evidence he first gave to the Electoral Commission (I think in 2002) arguing for a national rather than a local list and for good reason. It would help iron out some of the kinks in the system. This view is more relevant now given that the Scottish Parliament and not Westminster will now control the elections. Salmond has never liked the regional list and has said so many times before.
Third the SNP have never supported FPP and still do not, despite gaining from it last year. This
principled approach rather marks them out from the crowd.
Nothing about Salmond's interview or track record on this justifies your attack which makes you look like what the Speaker might describe as an "irritating" Liberal Democrat.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/435254/donald-trumps-tax-returns-delegates-should-abstain-if-he-wont-release
Catch my drift? If the NY sparkline should suddenly go
.....-
Hey! Maybe we have an interesting situation?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/11/italy-must-chose-between-the-euro-and-its-own-economic-survival/
Doesn't look good for Italy, those production figures are pretty terrifying.
"The United States is investigating an international aid group headed by David Miliband over allegations of corruption in projects intended to help Syrian civilians and refugees
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