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SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the online polls when tested against real results last Thursday overstated UKIP

Well done to Matt Singh for picking up this – how in the range of elections last Thursday the online pollsters across the board appeared to be over-stating UKIP. His analysis covers the London as well as the Scottish and Welsh elections.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    edited May 2016
    First like North Korea and Somalia in the corruption league table.

    Just to be a bit picky, UKIP got 28% of the vote in the 2014.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    There's a very similar conversation taking place in the Times today - by The Fink
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/if-youre-a-pollster-just-pick-up-the-phone-wfxkdx7xg
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,640
    A good Scottish Labour third!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    The phone polls have still moved markedly closer to the online polls since the start of the year. In December, Com Res and Ipsos MORI had Remain 21% and 26% ahead, respectively.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    Sean_F said:

    The phone polls have still moved markedly closer to the online polls since the start of the year. In December, Com Res and Ipsos MORI had Remain 21% and 26% ahead, respectively.

    TBH, I'm not taking any polls as accurate or otherwise - I can't help feeling that it's still who was Luckiest on the Day. If a pollster manages to consistently call it right over the next year or two - then I'll give them more credence.

    Until then, I'll stick to trend watching. Also the EU ref isn't an election - I'm very unsure that we can simply cut and paste the same behaviours.

    And finally, I find @chestnut's analysis much more insightful when it comes to digging into the weeds. I hope he's the time to post about this today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    Well, unless you want to use the PCC election as any sort of guide. Which would be unwise.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    Well quite. There's more than a whiff of apples and pears in this. I'm also very chary when it comes to anointing any one person as a soothsayer. We saw it with Nate Silver in spades. He got it right, then very very wrong.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    Surely this is just another example of what we saw at the election. Online polling finds it very difficult to attract and retain balanced samples. Those that are more strongly motivated are more likely to fill in the survey and the higher the proportion of motivated voters gets the less like the whole the sample becomes.

    I think translating this into a problem for Leave is frankly stretching it. Firstly, UKIP only form a part of the Leave support, somewhere around 1/3 so any such effect is divisible by 3. Secondly, it is entirely possible that there may be offsetting factors. For example the overstatement of UKIP tends to be at the cost of Tory support. And the majority of Tory support (just) is for Leave. The Scottish referendum also showed that a surprising number of DNVs did in a one off referendum.

    I could be wrong about this of course. But we won't have a clear idea until the results come in. Polling partly redeemed itself last Thursday, particularly in London where they were pretty well spot on, at least for the top 2, but it has a long way to go.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    I'm no apologist for UKIP, as many will know from last year's election, when I was unwavering in saying that they would get just the 1 MP. But

    1. BREXIT =/= UKIP

    2. PCC elections were every low turnout. Who knows whose supporters didn't turn out? Or why? I'm sure the UKIP candidates were all fine upstanding sorts, but they seem to have a track record of getting more than their fair share of rum coves as MEPs, and frankly, I'm not sure I'd take the risk of putting them in charge of the police...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Another case of calling polls you don't like 'rogues', it seems. Only on a broader scale than usual.

    Meanwhile Gordon Brown calls leaving the EU 'Un-British'. The barrel-scraping continues...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    UKIP won 14% in England and Wales, in these elections, or 16.5% per candidate, which is close enough to its online average share. Still, we had no polling for PCC elections, so maybe such polling would have overstated UKIP.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    UKIP came 2nd in Kent.

    Survation consistently had Ukip in the 20s pre GE last year, these figures prompted my interest in who commissions polls, they were doing a lot of polling for Ukip.

    FPT I met the Hamiltons, albeit briefly, and found them disappointingly normal and pleasant, there's no doubt they divide opinion but I'm not sure he was ever found guilty of anything, might be wrong.



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, for those Leavers that find this polling analysis distressing, here's a Guardian article on how Beatrix Potter is a primer for navigating the merciless currents of amoral capitalism:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/10/beatrix-potter-tales-britain-capitalism
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    Online polls don't consistently overstate UKIP. The final General Election polls for Yougov, BMG, and Opinium all had UKIP on 12%. All three companies are also showing a close race in this Referendum.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,749
    DavidL said:


    I could be wrong about this of course. But we won't have a clear idea until the results come in. Polling partly redeemed itself last Thursday, particularly in London where they were pretty well spot on, at least for the top 2, but it has a long way to go.

    The good London predictions may have something to do with the politicisation of the capital boosting turnout (and therefore reducing the impact of differential abstention between the polled and the not-polled). First, there's a FREE reasonably serious paper (the Standard) which most people read - Tory, but reports both sides. Second, the parties are well-organised and packed with eager volunteers. Third, quite a lot of people have someone in the family or circle of friends involved with Westminster.

    It is another world from, say, Broxtowe. There, all parties struggle to get out more than 5 canvassers in a routine session, the voters mostly haven't given politics much thought since the last election, and it's all very peaceful. In London, I've been on routine non-election canvasses with 25 people, and half the voters you meet have strong views.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,387
    I'm no expert on polling, but I understand the basics of statistics. Doesn't horses for courses come into this? I'm a leaver, so I voted for Ukip at the Euro elections and I carried it on at the GE just to send a message, but this time ... PCC, council? Hardly relevant. For the council, I'd have voted LD had one been available. And for the PCC, it was too irrelevant to contemplate.

    I could well have stated that I'm a Ukip voter if asked by a polling company, though.

    Systematic bias is always possible in polling and that's a fault of the companies. If you can't get a representative sample, don't do it.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    edited May 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    My distinct impression of UKIP after the last 36 months is that they are strongest in predominantly white lower-middle class areas. Which tend to be suburbs rather than shires, and which did vote last week.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    FPT(s)

    Given Richard Nabavis long list of dignitaries, the high and mightiest and other assorted odds and sods that are for remain and have ruled over our lives despite being wrong on multiple occasions yet not held accountable.......It would be a superb, opal fruit momment if it was a Feck you all and if Leave wins. It's would be worth it just for that alone. The utter confusion amongst them that would ensue would be a sight to see.

    I still think remain will win but if the threats continue from remain that's just what the outcome could be because the Brits are stubborn and they don't like being pushed around. If leave won though there is little doubt that we will be punished for making the "wrong decision".

    By the way, Won't be posting until later today now, have to dig my WW3 bunker in the back garden just in case.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    NickPalmer said:

    DavidL said:


    I could be wrong about this of course. But we won't have a clear idea until the results come in. Polling partly redeemed itself last Thursday, particularly in London where they were pretty well spot on, at least for the top 2, but it has a long way to go.

    The good London predictions may have something to do with the politicisation of the capital boosting turnout (and therefore reducing the impact of differential abstention between the polled and the not-polled). First, there's a FREE reasonably serious paper (the Standard) which most people read - Tory, but reports both sides. Second, the parties are well-organised and packed with eager volunteers. Third, quite a lot of people have someone in the family or circle of friends involved with Westminster.

    It is another world from, say, Broxtowe. There, all parties struggle to get out more than 5 canvassers in a routine session, the voters mostly haven't given politics much thought since the last election, and it's all very peaceful. In London, I've been on routine non-election canvasses with 25 people, and half the voters you meet have strong views.
    It's a good point Nick. Just because they can get London right does not mean that they can get the country right. London also seems to have diluted the oldie effect as well by having a much higher proportion of younger people voting than average. This is a good thing of course but probably helped the pollsters because those voting were more representative of the whole than normal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    My distinct impression of UKIP after the last 36 months is that they are strongest in predominantly white lower-middle class areas. Which tend to be suburbs rather than shires, and which did vote last week.
    UKIP's strongest counties are Kent and Essex, especially the Thames Estuary, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, and Suffolk.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    Plato_Says said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
    It depends what you mean by "doing well". UKIP didn't win any of the positions, but they got a strong vote share.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    PM slagged off for telling the truth..ya gorra larf
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Moses_ said:

    FPT(s)

    Given Richard Nabavis long list of dignitaries, the high and mightiest and other assorted odds and sods that are for remain and have ruled over our lives despite being wrong on multiple occasions yet not held accountable.......It would be a superb, opal fruit momment if it was a Feck you all and if Leave wins. It's would be worth it just for that alone. The utter confusion amongst them that would ensue would be a sight to see.

    I think remain will win but if the threats continue from remain that's just what the outcome could be because the Brits are stubborn and they don't like being pushed around. If leave won though there is little doubt that we will be punished for making the "wrong decision".

    By the way, Won't be posting until later today now, have to dig my WW3 bunker in the back garden just in case.

    Happy Anderson Day! http://www.for-sale.co.uk/anderson-shelter
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.
    I was presuming that this was just to keep their spirits up when Leave leads in the polling become more consistent.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    I should think the types of Conservatives who will vote Leave will come from high turnout groups (older, middle class).
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Plato_Says said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
    If you look at my earlier reference to the PCC in Kent it was won by the Conservative candidate who was working as Office Manager to a govt whip, he was effectively a full time paid candidate. The Ukip chap was ex army and police who gave up his job to run the campaign.

    I'm sure the whole Kent constabulary is delighted that a 31 year old career politician is their new boss.

    Is this really the way to go, I mean really?

    To me this cuts to the heart of the referendum debate and why I'm so desperate to leave, I want to send a message to the establishment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    richardDodd said:

    PM slagged off for telling the truth..ya gorra larf

    Nigeria and Afghanistan being corrupt is up there with the Pope being Catholic.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    I should think the types of Conservatives who will vote Leave will come from high turnout groups (older, middle class).
    Yes I mentioned that as a possible offset in my first post this morning. Overall if the pollsters are looking for another excuse for getting it wrong they are going to have to look elsewhere.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.
    "Whenever I feel afraid, I hold my head erect, and whistle a happy tune, so no one will suspect -

    I'm afraid."

    Alternatively, we can look at facts rather than comforting hypotheses without supporting evidence. DavidL, perhaps instinctively, has used calculations to suggest a bare minimum effect.

    Matt Singh suggests that social conservatives in general are overrepresented, which in turn would mean that not just kippers but paleo-Conservatives also would be overrepresented. If so, Leave could be overstated by considerably more than 0.5%.

    But I'm sure you'll prefer just to stick your head in the sand.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Sean_F said:

    richardDodd said:

    PM slagged off for telling the truth..ya gorra larf

    Nigeria and Afghanistan being corrupt is up there with the Pope being Catholic.
    When I heard about this I got excited that I had an opportunity to duff Cameron up, I ended up very disappointed.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    .
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    My distinct impression of UKIP after the last 36 months is that they are strongest in predominantly white lower-middle class areas. Which tend to be suburbs rather than shires, and which did vote last week.
    UKIP's strongest counties are Kent and Essex, especially the Thames Estuary, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, and Suffolk.
    Where is Sussex in that ranking? We had quite a few elected down my way at the LEs.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    The effect is quite small but you can't scale it down as you do there, I think. If we assume that all Kippers will vote Leave (not strictly true, of course) then if UKIP's support is 2 percentage points lower than expected that is 2% off the Leave score. It's a smaller proportion of the overall Leave vote than of the UKIP vote, of course.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    BoJo on R4...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    ...already waffling
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Good morning, everyone.

    Anyone know what interactive services detection is? Got a pop-up just now. Had a quick search on Twitter/Youtube [where I found an apparent fix, not yet enacted].

    The threadstarter is bound up closely with what turnout will be. Higher overall turnout would diminish any theoretical gap between polls and the result.

    However, it's also worth noting that Conservatives are likely to turnout (in relative terms), and Labour less so. That helps Leave.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    Wanderer said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    The effect is quite small but you can't scale it down as you do there, I think. If we assume that all Kippers will vote Leave (not strictly true, of course) then if UKIP's support is 2 percentage points lower than expected that is 2% off the Leave score. It's a smaller proportion of the overall Leave vote than of the UKIP vote, of course.
    But, that wouldn't be the net effect. All UKIP voters (as near as makes no difference) will vote Leave, but then, so will plenty of non-UKIP voters. If online polls oversample UKIP voters by 2-3%, the effect would be to overstate Leave support by perhaps 1-1.5%.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    edited May 2016
    BORIS!!!

    Stop digging!

    Edit: then again keep going.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    DavidL said:

    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.
    I was presuming that this was just to keep their spirits up when Leave leads in the polling become more consistent.
    It'll be interesting to see if WAR!!! effects the polling. Snap poll by YouGov showed the vast majority weren't impressed at all. The US ex-Defence bods weren't well received either [see Obama].

    Remain needs to find something positive to say. Sending Johnny Foreigner round to put the frighteners on us doesn't seem to working too well given the polling.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
    Well dodged
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    I'd rather have some form of police accountability than no form of police accountability.

    Sadly I have no say over who becomes my police commissioner. I wish I did.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
    Well dodged
    Listening atm to Boris - king of dodge, great teacher.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    No, I don't coolly write two sentences, the second of which contradicts the first.

    I'll let you into a secret. No one here likes representative democracy. We just can't agree who the dictator should be...

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,291
    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.
    Especially not when supported by the BOE, the CBI, the TUC, the OBR, the IMF, the IFS, the POTUS, 5 secretarys of state going back to Nixon, 22 mummies going back to Tutankhamun etc.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,499
    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCr4today: We should leave EU single market, says Boris Johnson. “We should get out of the empire of EU law making.” #EUref https://t.co/bU4Bubnv5n

    So it wasn't a gaffe by Gove, this really is the new Brexit line.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Mr. Max, it was outrageous. The Nigerians are well-known for their mature approach to money. Only this week, one of their former generals offered to give me a million dollars.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Plato_Says said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
    Indeed. I voted for an independent candidate as I felt the Tory and UKIP candidates lacked experience. I also voted for a Resident's Association candidate in the local election.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    blackburn63 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
    If you look at my earlier reference to the PCC in Kent it was won by the Conservative candidate who was working as Office Manager to a govt whip, he was effectively a full time paid candidate. The Ukip chap was ex army and police who gave up his job to run the campaign.

    I'm sure the whole Kent constabulary is delighted that a 31 year old career politician is their new boss.

    Is this really the way to go, I mean really?

    To me this cuts to the heart of the referendum debate and why I'm so desperate to leave, I want to send a message to the establishment.
    I quite agree re the quality of some candidates. Speaking for myself - I voted for the incumbent Tory, she seems harmless and quite good. I wouldn't vote UKIP - it's all a bit too hang-em-and-flog-em as a brand. I'm very torn about ex-plod poacher turned gamekeepers. They know all the tricks, but could easily go native.

    Don't know the answer - I'd happily vote for a recent senior ex-Armed Services sort. They've got similar mindsets but not infected by the policing culture.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,500
    UKIP voters are the most working class of any party, even more so than Labour and as the working class turn out to vote less than the middle class that could help explain the overstatement and perhaps that may be repeated a little for Leave
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    So the Prime Minister has an awkward couple of conversations ahead? I can't imagine either president can protest too profusely that he's wrong. This might even help them domestically implement anti-corruption policies, if they are so inclined.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCr4today: We should leave EU single market, says Boris Johnson. “We should get out of the empire of EU law making.” #EUref https://t.co/bU4Bubnv5n

    So it wasn't a gaffe by Gove, this really is the new Brexit line.

    Seems fair enough. Leave's main argument is take back control of immigration. Single market means open borders.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

    Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

    Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.
    The effect is quite small but you can't scale it down as you do there, I think. If we assume that all Kippers will vote Leave (not strictly true, of course) then if UKIP's support is 2 percentage points lower than expected that is 2% off the Leave score. It's a smaller proportion of the overall Leave vote than of the UKIP vote, of course.
    But, that wouldn't be the net effect. All UKIP voters (as near as makes no difference) will vote Leave, but then, so will plenty of non-UKIP voters. If online polls oversample UKIP voters by 2-3%, the effect would be to overstate Leave support by perhaps 1-1.5%.
    I see what you mean. Yes, that's true.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Plato_Says said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
    If you look at my earlier reference to the PCC in Kent it was won by the Conservative candidate who was working as Office Manager to a govt whip, he was effectively a full time paid candidate. The Ukip chap was ex army and police who gave up his job to run the campaign.

    I'm sure the whole Kent constabulary is delighted that a 31 year old career politician is their new boss.

    Is this really the way to go, I mean really?

    To me this cuts to the heart of the referendum debate and why I'm so desperate to leave, I want to send a message to the establishment.
    I quite agree re the quality of some candidates. Speaking for myself - I voted for the incumbent Tory, she seems harmless and quite good. I wouldn't vote UKIP - it's all a bit too hang-em-and-flog-em as a brand. I'm very torn about ex-plod poacher turned gamekeepers. They know all the tricks, but could easily go native.

    Don't know the answer - I'd happily vote for a recent senior ex-Armed Services sort. They've got similar mindsets but not infected by the policing culture.
    the whole thing just makes me think of batman (the duff tv one, obv.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCr4today: We should leave EU single market, says Boris Johnson. “We should get out of the empire of EU law making.” #EUref https://t.co/bU4Bubnv5n

    So it wasn't a gaffe by Gove, this really is the new Brexit line.

    But...America has access to the single market...what on earth was the post office thinking charging me duty on some CDs I bought recently from the US??
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    No, I don't coolly write two sentences, the second of which contradicts the first.

    I'll let you into a secret. No one here likes representative democracy. We just can't agree who the dictator should be...

    I appreciate that if I told you the time you wouldn't believe me but I'll explain my stance.

    I don't agree with political parties putting up candidates as PCCs, last week I stated that Henry Bolton is a good chap that I like but that I wouldn't be voting out of principle.

    You may have a problem with that and use semantics for an ad hominem attack attack, good for you.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    AlastairMeeks said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    I'd rather have some form of police accountability than no form of police accountability.

    Sadly I have no say over who becomes my police commissioner. I wish I did.
    Didn't you vote for the winner?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Boris doesn't deny he'd written two Telegraph pieces, one saying he was backing Remain, and one saying he was backing Leave #r4today
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCr4today: We should leave EU single market, says Boris Johnson. “We should get out of the empire of EU law making.” #EUref https://t.co/bU4Bubnv5n

    So it wasn't a gaffe by Gove, this really is the new Brexit line.

    The single regulatory regime, yes. http://capx.co/remain-campaign-is-misleading-voters-on-the-single-market/
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,387
    I wonder why Labour has a problem in Lincolnshire?

    WWC complaint: "All these white Christians from Eastern Europe are taking our jobs on the land."
    Labour: "Racist. They are good for the country, and you're just fat and lazy."

    Whatever the truth of the matter, it's the response that is so telling. Did Keir Hardie die in vain?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen that I object to.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean Fear still in denial I see of clear evidence that UKIP are overstated in Online polls by 3 to 5% . Welsh Assembly UKIP actually polled 12.5% compared to pollsters 16 %
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    blackburn63 said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    No, I don't coolly write two sentences, the second of which contradicts the first.

    I'll let you into a secret. No one here likes representative democracy. We just can't agree who the dictator should be...

    I appreciate that if I told you the time you wouldn't believe me but I'll explain my stance.

    I don't agree with political parties putting up candidates as PCCs, last week I stated that Henry Bolton is a good chap that I like but that I wouldn't be voting out of principle.

    You may have a problem with that and use semantics for an ad hominem attack attack, good for you.
    I would like to make a full and fulsome apology.

    I used to think I had better things to do with my time than recall what Blackburn63 wrote here last week. I was - and am - wrong about that. Why OGH doesn't ban me I can't imagine.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Now I come to think of it, weren't Labour significantly overstated in the General Election polling?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,500
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Now I come to think of it, weren't Labour significantly overstated in the General Election polling?

    Working class voters like UKIP did not all vote
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,610
    dugarbandier said:

    Plato_Says said:

    blackburn63 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

    UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

    Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.
    Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

    I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.
    If you look at my earlier reference to the PCC in Kent it was won by the Conservative candidate who was working as Office Manager to a govt whip, he was effectively a full time paid candidate. The Ukip chap was ex army and police who gave up his job to run the campaign.

    I'm sure the whole Kent constabulary is delighted that a 31 year old career politician is their new boss.

    Is this really the way to go, I mean really?

    To me this cuts to the heart of the referendum debate and why I'm so desperate to leave, I want to send a message to the establishment.
    I quite agree re the quality of some candidates. Speaking for myself - I voted for the incumbent Tory, she seems harmless and quite good. I wouldn't vote UKIP - it's all a bit too hang-em-and-flog-em as a brand. I'm very torn about ex-plod poacher turned gamekeepers. They know all the tricks, but could easily go native.

    Don't know the answer - I'd happily vote for a recent senior ex-Armed Services sort. They've got similar mindsets but not infected by the policing culture.
    the whole thing just makes me think of batman (the duff tv one, obv.)
    It was a lost opportunity by the OMRLP to put up a Mr Gordon for Commissioner, whose only policy would be to man the Bat-phone...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    I disagree, I view it as nothing more than a casual remark that has been blown out of all proportion by Cameron bashers. I'm a Cameron basher but there's nothing to see here.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Now I come to think of it, weren't Labour significantly overstated in the General Election polling?

    Yes, but that's been sorted now, as these are non-voters who have held back because Labour wasn't offering a pure, hard-left policy agenda.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.
    I'd be grateful if you would take your speargun and step away from the barrel.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.
    What's your point? I honestly don't know what that was all about yesterday, but I'm not buying that that the PM and the Queen were both caught out making diplomatically sensitive comments on the same day.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    blackburn63 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    I disagree, I view it as nothing more than a casual remark that has been blown out of all proportion by Cameron bashers. I'm a Cameron basher but there's nothing to see here.
    You mean that you're a more intelligent Cameron basher than all the other Cameron bashers? Who'd a thunk it :o

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    This is a interesting snippet of a council result in Birkenhead:

    http://democracy.wirral.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=4&RPID=501713034

    Look at the appalling scores for Libdems and Tories.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chrisshipitv: Tooting by election to replace @SadiqKhan as MP will be on 16 June, the electoral officer decides. One week *before* EU referendum
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    I'm genuinely interested in how "the working class" is defined, Prescott said we're all middle class now. About 25 years ago the use of "underclass" came into use, take a look at Jeremy Kyle. I can't imagine many of those vote.

    Defining who votes for political parties and why is very difficult.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    MarkSenior said:

    Sean Fear still in denial I see of clear evidence that UKIP are overstated in Online polls by 3 to 5% . Welsh Assembly UKIP actually polled 12.5% compared to pollsters 16 %

    At the general election UKIP were overstated by about 0.5%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    Is the referendum going to be more like a general election or more like a Welsh Assembly election?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    tlg86 said:



    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.
    What's your point? I honestly don't know what that was all about yesterday, but I'm not buying that that the PM and the Queen were both caught out making diplomatically sensitive comments on the same day.
    The Queen was filmed having a private conversation with a police commander - good manners meant these sort of videos weren't broadcast before. I can't imagine Buck House is at all impressed that it's been shown/things will change if guests and broadcasters can't be trusted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,234
    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: Tooting by election to replace @SadiqKhan as MP will be on 16 June, the electoral officer decides. One week *before* EU referendum

    Mike's still on holiday then.

    Safe Lab hold nailed on, on past form. Ahem
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
    But not everybody has a wealthy party machine behind them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    Plato_Says said:

    tlg86 said:



    AlastairMeeks said:

    tlg86 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
    I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
    Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.
    What's your point? I honestly don't know what that was all about yesterday, but I'm not buying that that the PM and the Queen were both caught out making diplomatically sensitive comments on the same day.
    The Queen was filmed having a private conversation with a police commander - good manners meant these sort of videos weren't broadcast before. I can't imagine Buck House is at all impressed that it's been shown/things will change if guests and broadcasters can't be trusted.
    If that's the case I imagine the queen is not amused!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Mr. Eagles, there's less chance of a cock-up than a eunuch in a chastity belt.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Interesting soundbites from Boris on Sky - £110m goes on Spanish bull-fighting and another slice on Greek tobacco subsidies.

    He's in Truro reassuring those areas getting Objective X funding that they'll still get it - it just won't be laundered via Brussels.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Scott_P said:

    @chrisshipitv: Tooting by election to replace @SadiqKhan as MP will be on 16 June, the electoral officer decides. One week *before* EU referendum

    Good for Labour to get it in before the referendum, I think.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Stronger in Europe sent me an email yesterday complaining that Leave had more money.

    A bizarre barrel scraping message
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Plato_Says said:

    Interesting soundbites from Boris on Sky - £110m goes on Spanish bull-fighting and another slice on Greek tobacco subsidies.

    He's in Truro reassuring those areas getting Objective X funding that they'll still get it - it just won't be laundered via Brussels.

    Hang on a second. I thought Vote Leave was not the government and therefore couldn't reasonably be asked what would happen after we left?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    ThreeQuidder said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Sean Fear still in denial I see of clear evidence that UKIP are overstated in Online polls by 3 to 5% . Welsh Assembly UKIP actually polled 12.5% compared to pollsters 16 %

    At the general election UKIP were overstated by about 0.5%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    Is the referendum going to be more like a general election or more like a Welsh Assembly election?
    Online pollsters purport to show that UKIP support has increased since the 2015 GE , telephone pollsters show it is slightly down . The local elections last week confirm that the online pollsters are wrong and telephone pollsters are right .
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    rottenborough said:

    This is a interesting snippet of a council result in Birkenhead:

    http://democracy.wirral.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=4&RPID=501713034

    Look at the appalling scores for Libdems and Tories.

    What's your point. Solid Labour since the 50's when the seat was created. Obviously you have also never been to Bierrrkinead. It was bad in the 70's it's bad now. A scandal given the landslides Blair had and they could have done so much.

    Red rose donkey country.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,225
    PClipp said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    TOPPING said:

    blackburn63 said:

    btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

    Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

    Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

    The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

    voters, eh - what can you do with them?
    Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

    Do you?
    Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.
    But not everybody has a wealthy party machine behind them.
    True. There was a nice leaflet explaining everyone's views which ISTR cost the candidates £9,000 each. Average spend in 2012 was £11,200. The salary is £100,000. I don't think those are crazy figures for non-aligned candidates to match.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCr4today: We should leave EU single market, says Boris Johnson. “We should get out of the empire of EU law making.” #EUref https://t.co/bU4Bubnv5n

    So it wasn't a gaffe by Gove, this really is the new Brexit line.

    The single regulatory regime, yes. http://capx.co/remain-campaign-is-misleading-voters-on-the-single-market/

    Very misleading from Mr Hannan there. A single market means no internal barriers to business. It's very efficient and saves a lot of time and money. I find it extraordinary that this is now what the Leave side is advocating. They are doing it, of course, because it is the only way to make the claims about controlling immigration they are making. But they should not pretend that it will not come at a cost.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MaxPB said:

    People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

    So the Prime Minister has an awkward couple of conversations ahead? I can't imagine either president can protest too profusely that he's wrong. This might even help them domestically implement anti-corruption policies, if they are so inclined.

    Alternatively, we can just slip them a couple of quid to keep shtum.

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