Currently forecasting that the Dems win Obama 2012 states + N. Carolina, with Arizona too close to call. That's 347 EC votes plus another 11 if they win AZ. A couple of other states are forecast to be very close though.
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
Boris having a car crash interview on Sky. Draws up with bus headlining 350 million saving to be spent on the NHS and the reporter saying that the Office of National statistics has said that it is wholly misleading and also Cornwall receives 600 million in aid from the EU. Also the pasty he waves is protected by EU regs. He just blustered and really gave the impression he couldn't get away from the interview fast enough
Oh dear does that mean that LEAVE has lost the referendum?
Boris having a car crash interview on Sky. Draws up with bus headlining 350 million saving to be spent on the NHS and the reporter saying that the Office of National statistics has said that it is wholly misleading and also Cornwall receives 600 million in aid from the EU. Also the pasty he waves is protected by EU regs. He just blustered and really gave the impression he couldn't get away from the interview fast enough
Oh dear does that mean that LEAVE has lost the referendum?
Nah, poor bloke is all knackered out after being used in the Indyref.
As are the Waffen SS & Gestapo, still on light duties; no leave for the wicked.
The Waffen Yes Yes, The Yestapo, and Angry Salmond were the best things to come out of the Indyref
Nothing will surpass the inspired genius of the Imperial Death March blaring from a rickshaw as passers by are exhorted to bow down to their imperial masters, aka podgy peers & mps scurrying as fast as they could towards the next London train.
"A German defence white paper, leaked last week but supposed to be kept under wraps until after the referendum, leaves no doubt of Germany’s intention to drive through the merger of Europe’s armed forces “and embark on permanent cooperation under common structures”. Germany has begun to combine substantial elements of the Dutch forces with their own."
Let's look at how much good that single market access is doing the UK. In the last quarter our trade deficit reached the worst level since 2008 and the peak of the last boom with the bust imminent: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36256358
As the BBC notes: "Meanwhile, Germany's trade surplus hit an all-time high in March as its exports surged, according to monthly data published by the federal statistics office Destatis."
What we have seen over recent years is a declining share of our exports going to this single market and more and more going to countries that we don't actually have trade deals with (other than the overarching WTO agreements) such as the USA. In the last quarter growth fell sharply because of the trade effect and a disproportionate share of that deficit arose from our trade with other EU countries inside this single market.
The reasons for this are complex but significant underlying factors are that we are still running a very large public sector deficit which artificially boosts demand inside the UK. In contrast Germany, with it exports boom, is running a substantial surplus curtailing domestic demand for our goods and services.
Slightly misquoting the Japanese Emperor the single market has not developed necessarily to our advantage. It reduces our growth, reduces our employment, reduces our tax base and undermines our ability to fund public services. Of course there are sections of our economy that benefit from the opportunities that the Single Market creates, the City perhaps being the most obvious, but in most of our economy, even cars, it has a net negative effect.
This does not necessarily mean leaving it is a good thing. Things may well go from bad to worse if we do. Leaving the Single Market would not cure the major structural, educational, managerial, investment and cultural problems that we have in this country. But lets get a sense of perspective. If access to the single market which has resulted in a deteriorating balance of payments over a very long period of time is the best that the EU can offer us their offer is less than tempting. And those that claim it is an unalloyed gain for Britain are not really looking at the situation we are in.
Yes, I've been pointing this out for a few months now, the singe market doesn't work in our favour. Under the current structure it just serves Germany and enables them to hollow out our economy. If we could kick Germany out of the single market and force them to take up the DM again, it would be a much better proposition. As it is, Germany's continual drive for more austerity, whether by the state or by the individual, is the driving force behind the major imbalances in the EU. Until the EU faces up to their mega, mega surplus and hits them with restricted single market access unless they work to fix the underlying issues of continual austerity, it won't work for us.
No, I am not. I am saying that leaving the Single Market will make it harder to do business in the EU. Our business, for example, can organise an event in Barcelona (as we are doing currently) as easily as we can in Birmingham currently. There are no barriers in place. That makes it an efficient option for us and so incentivises us to do more events in Europe - which is good news for our London operation because everything can be handled from there. If we withdraw from the Single Market, those efficiencies are going to reduce and it will take longer to organise events in Europe and more expensive, so we will do fewer of them in Europe and more in Asia and the US. That's bad news for our London operation (and employees) and good news our HK and DC operations. Korean and US companies are not faced with that issue, because they have never built their businesses on being part of the Single Market.
Out of interest, what are the barriers you see being in place to organising a conference in Barcelona, post Brexit? Have you quantified them?
On the broader point you are groping towards, yes of course there will be some restructuring of the UK economy, post-Brexit. But much of it will be healthy. It's important not to assume that current structures of production are somehow optimal - that is conflating special interests with broader economic welfare.
We will be free to source some imports more cheaply than now, and our overall trade pattern will probably shift further away from the EU over a decade or two as the trade distortions created by EU protectionism unwind.
These are good things especially as the EU is such a slow-growth market, a situation that won't improve I'm afraid - indeed it is likely to get worse due to the EU's catastrophic demographics.
Last I recall the argument was that nearly all companies since they don't export at all would be freed from regulations
Can you give us any examples of "nearly all companies" that "don't export at all"?
My own business trades locally and does not export. As is the case with 90% of companies.
Isn't it 94% of SMEs? It's beyond daft handwaving to pretend this isn't absurd over regulation.
94% of SMEs and 90% of total businesses sounds about right to me. Yet it seems to be news to Mr @Scott_P
For 2015, exportation of goods and services to the EU accounted for 12% of our GDP, to non-EU countries it was 16%. If the figures took into account re-exports then it would be closer to 10% and 17% for EU and non-EU.
What we lose from exports we will gain from fewer imports, our net trade position is absolutely diabolical at the moment, the current consensus is that it wiped 0.3% off GDP in the first quarter. While I wouldn't advocate leaving the single market, I don't see it as some world-ending move that will result in the British economy collapsing. If it does, then the foundations of our economy are much worse than people think.
I still don't see why it helps us to make it more difficult to do business in what your figures show is an extremely important export market.
Because, for me at least, it isn't just about economic gains and losses. In the end staying or going isn't going to make that much difference to our economy, anyone who claims it will be a disaster or lead to a new era of 4-5% annual growth is being dishonest. The issue, for me and many others, is about our sovereignty and the direction the EU is taking, the inexorable march to the superstate is not something I want this country to be a part of and leaving is the only way to ensure it doesn't happen.
Fair enough. I don't think that the UK can be forced into a superstate against its will, so I don't have your concerns on that front. But I do think that leaving the Single Market will be pretty damaging. That's why I will vote Remain.
People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.
It's doing it using the Queen I object too.
I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.
I disagree, I view it as nothing more than a casual remark that has been blown out of all proportion by Cameron bashers. I'm a Cameron basher but there's nothing to see here.
Prime Ministers don't make casual comments to the Queen. It may not have been intended for public consumption, but it was sending her a message on how HMG views those countries.
I'm sure the Queen can judge for herself the levels of corruption in those two nations. It's not some massive secret.
Yes, I think it was intended for public consumption. If it was a real gaffe, I would imagine it being a lot worse, like him rubbishing India or Pakistan. I still can't divine the significance though.
If there is any significance in his choice of country, it may be that the international community is ramping up pressure on Nigeria at the moment in preparation for some intervention.
Queen being (justifiably) disparaging about the Chinese state visit. So it could have been chucking the press a bit of a juicy bone to stop that being widely covered?
Sean Fear still in denial I see of clear evidence that UKIP are overstated in Online polls by 3 to 5% . Welsh Assembly UKIP actually polled 12.5% compared to pollsters 16 %
Is the referendum going to be more like a general election or more like a Welsh Assembly election?
Online pollsters purport to show that UKIP support has increased since the 2015 GE , telephone pollsters show it is slightly down . The local elections last week confirm that the online pollsters are wrong and telephone pollsters are right .
The PCC elections show that you are wrong.
I haven't seen the PCC results? What proportion did UKIP get in that if it was higher than 2015?
The daily mail and other ‘leave’ newspapers are making quite an issue that the EU is holding back the introduction of new laws on the power of kettles and toasters until after the referendum. Leave is making a big play on our sovereignty but if the EU introduces such laws throughout the EU are leave really saying the UK will not comply with these regulations and if so how are we going to export to the EU. It seems to me that even by leaving the UK will still have de facto regulations to comply with and we are not even inside the EU to have some say on these matters, even if we do not always win our case. I would be interested in comments from leavers on this point
Leave is saying that individual businesses can make their own decisions.
If they want to sell to the EU they can comply with the regulations and sell to the EU. If they want to sell only to the UK they can comply with UK regulations (which may, or may not, be the same depending on what our democratically accountable leaders decide)
Your response would explain why 37% of SME's want to leave as most seem to be only interested in the domestic market
In my own industry, the big multinationals try to drive up regulation because they see it as a competitive advantage. It makes it much more difficult for new entrants, and gives them an entrenched profitability advantage over smaller incumbents (who have to amortise regulatory costs across a smaller revenue base).
That is consistent with what I've been told by other people in City for Britain and Business for Britain, but I've no personal experience outside my industry.
Currently forecasting that the Dems win Obama 2012 states + N. Carolina, with Arizona too close to call. That's 347 EC votes plus another 11 if they win AZ. A couple of other states are forecast to be very close though.
Hopefully the US pollsters will pull their finger out with plenty of polling in both swing states and nationally.
The individual polls never seem to be the best, but if you have enough of them they work together like a swarm of bees to point us in the correct direction.
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
No, I am not. I am saying that leaving the Single Market will make it harder to do business in the EU. Our business, for example, can organise an event in Barcelona (as we are doing currently) as easily as we can in Birmingham currently. There are no barriers in place. That makes it an efficient option for us and so incentivises us to do more events in Europe - which is good news for our London operation because everything can be handled from there. If we withdraw from the Single Market, those efficiencies are going to reduce and it will take longer to organise events in Europe and more expensive, so we will do fewer of them in Europe and more in Asia and the US. That's bad news for our London operation (and employees) and good news our HK and DC operations. Korean and US companies are not faced with that issue, because they have never built their businesses on being part of the Single Market.
Out of interest, what are the barriers you see being in place to organising a conference in Barcelona, post Brexit? Have you quantified them?
On the broader point you are groping towards, yes of course there will be some restructuring of the UK economy, post-Brexit. But much of it will be healthy. It's important not to assume that current structures of production are somehow optimal - that is conflating special interests with broader economic welfare.
We will be free to source some imports more cheaply than now, and our overall trade pattern will probably shift further away from the EU over a decade or two as the trade distortions created by EU protectionism unwind.
These are good things especially as the EU is such a slow-growth market, a situation that won't improve I'm afraid - indeed it is likely to get worse due to the EU's catastrophic demographics.
Tax issues are much more complicated to deal with once you leave the EU and start doing business elsewhere. There are also issues around exhibitor materials and customs, as well as visas for delegates and speakers, and so on. Basically, it's a lot of little things - all of which are surmountable, but all of which take up time and resource.
UK Stats Auth says final net figure on average per year £7.1 bn - works out around £136m a week - about half figure on side of #Brexit bus
On average is complete bollocks given it has been rising substantially in recent years. And as we already saw yesterday the net figure is also bollocks given the constraints put on the monies we get back.
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
And on our current trade the cost of all of the WTO tariffs put together would still be substantially less than the amount we pay for access to the Single Market.
Fair enough. I don't think that the UK can be forced into a superstate against its will, so I don't have your concerns on that front. But I do think that leaving the Single Market will be pretty damaging. That's why I will vote Remain.
No I don't think so either, but at that point the cost of separation is going to be a lot higher than it is now. Right now it is probably at an all time low because the EU is weak and divided. If we leave today there are 27 different nations that will be pitted against each other and eventually we can get what we want, if it happens in the future it will be one country with one agenda to punish those who seek to leave the USE to ensure no one else makes for the exit door.
Boris having a car crash interview on Sky. Draws up with bus headlining 350 million saving to be spent on the NHS and the reporter saying that the Office of National statistics has said that it is wholly misleading and also Cornwall receives 600 million in aid from the EU. Also the pasty he waves is protected by EU regs. He just blustered and really gave the impression he couldn't get away from the interview fast enough
Oh dear does that mean that LEAVE has lost the referendum?
Well he needs to come over better.
If Boris comes over any better with swing voters he would be walking on water. Boris's ratings are miles ahead of Cameron's. He clearly does not appeal to you, nor to me, but you are someone who has already decided to REMAIN. To the undecideds Boris is a massive asset to LEAVE.
David Miliband's International Rescue is under investigation in the US over claims of 'bribery and kickback schemes' linked to tens of millions of aid spending in Syria
Fair enough. I don't think that the UK can be forced into a superstate against its will, so I don't have your concerns on that front. But I do think that leaving the Single Market will be pretty damaging. That's why I will vote Remain.
No I don't think so either, but at that point the cost of separation is going to be a lot higher than it is now. Right now it is probably at an all time low because the EU is weak and divided. If we leave today there are 27 different nations that will be pitted against each other and eventually we can get what we want, if it happens in the future it will be one country with one agenda to punish those who seek to leave the USE to ensure no one else makes for the exit door.
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
No you are talking rubbish I think. Your claim that tariff-free access would require free movement is just something you have made up. Tariffs are in any case only significant in a handful of sectors.
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
And on our current trade the cost of all of the WTO tariffs put together would still be substantially less than the amount we pay for access to the Single Market.
It's not just about tariffs, it's about the ease and speed of doing business. Try opening an office in the US as compared to one in any EU member state. You very soon see a major difference.
Fair enough. I don't think that the UK can be forced into a superstate against its will, so I don't have your concerns on that front. But I do think that leaving the Single Market will be pretty damaging. That's why I will vote Remain.
No I don't think so either, but at that point the cost of separation is going to be a lot higher than it is now. Right now it is probably at an all time low because the EU is weak and divided. If we leave today there are 27 different nations that will be pitted against each other and eventually we can get what we want, if it happens in the future it will be one country with one agenda to punish those who seek to leave the USE to ensure no one else makes for the exit door.
But if we agree that we cannot be forced into a USE why would we want to leave in the future? A Single Market with one entity of 500 million people sounds like a superb opportunity to me.
David Miliband's International Rescue is under investigation in the US over claims of 'bribery and kickback schemes' linked to tens of millions of aid spending in Syria
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
Name a single European nation other than Belarus or Russia that faces tariffs?
Hint: Not all European nations other than those two tinpot dictatorships are in the EFTA/EEA ...
Fair enough. I don't think that the UK can be forced into a superstate against its will, so I don't have your concerns on that front. But I do think that leaving the Single Market will be pretty damaging. That's why I will vote Remain.
No I don't think so either, but at that point the cost of separation is going to be a lot higher than it is now. Right now it is probably at an all time low because the EU is weak and divided. If we leave today there are 27 different nations that will be pitted against each other and eventually we can get what we want, if it happens in the future it will be one country with one agenda to punish those who seek to leave the USE to ensure no one else makes for the exit door.
But if we agree that we cannot be forced into a USE why would we want to leave in the future? A Single Market with one entity of 500 million people sounds like a superb opportunity to me.
Because in the future that option won't exist, it will be leave or become part of the USE. Remain is not the status quo.
In most cases, it might also be considered institutional racism as well, since freely advertising posts would likely produce more varied applicants than recruiting from around the breakfast table.
I'm with o2. Really recommend. EE are a bunch of numpties. Avoid them like the plague.
EE's customer service is terrible, and the website in particular is a confusing bug-filled pile of crap. But their network is by far the best.
I use suppliers that resell EE's network. Anything to avoid EE's appalling customer service. I had TMobile which was ok and I had 5 family mobiles with them and then they "forced" one mobile onto their new entity EE .... and being forced to use different websites etc etc... I decided we might as well go elsewhere since EE/Tmobile had ended our consolidated approach.
Fair enough. I don't think that the UK can be forced into a superstate against its will, so I don't have your concerns on that front. But I do think that leaving the Single Market will be pretty damaging. That's why I will vote Remain.
No I don't think so either, but at that point the cost of separation is going to be a lot higher than it is now. Right now it is probably at an all time low because the EU is weak and divided. If we leave today there are 27 different nations that will be pitted against each other and eventually we can get what we want, if it happens in the future it will be one country with one agenda to punish those who seek to leave the USE to ensure no one else makes for the exit door.
But if we agree that we cannot be forced into a USE why would we want to leave in the future? A Single Market with one entity of 500 million people sounds like a superb opportunity to me.
Because in the future that option won't exist, it will be leave or become part of the USE. Remain is not the status quo.
OK - I don't believe that is going to happen. I guess we just disagree on that point. I can see why you'll vote for Leave if you do think that.
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
How many of them thought the Euro would be a disaster?
Last I recall the argument was that nearly all companies since they don't export at all would be freed from regulations
Can you give us any examples of "nearly all companies" that "don't export at all"?
My own business trades locally and does not export. As is the case with 90% of companies.
Which EU regs will you be pleased to be shot of?
I will be pleased to have all regs democratically accountable and appropriate.
Thanks Boris. And the answer to my question is?
It is a matter of principle. I believe in democracy. Is that so shocking to you?
Don't make me do a Jezza (Paxman) on you. You said that you were in the 94% of UK businesses that doesn't export to the EU, but were outraged at EU kettle regulations. We were looking at the nitty gritty of this lack of sovereignty the EU supposedly imposes, and so I asked how EU regulations affect you.
My enquiries to date have been around speaking to people in various industries to see how being in or out of the EU affects them personally and professionally. So far, this has included financial services and farming (and the security services, if we include Eliza M-B on the radio this morning).
From a waverer this has put me in a position of wanting to Remain because on balance it seems that it will benefit those industries to stay in the EU. I had wanted to expand this anecdotal enquiry by knowing how you, a Leaver, were affected, especially given your concern about kettle regulations. It seems you aren't affected.
That's fine - I will put you down as being concerned about this nebulous concept of sovereignty. The lack of which means we will have a referendum on EU membership in June and could have one every month for the next ten years if we wanted.
@Plato_SaysHave you threatened to leave? That often works wonders. If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
No you are talking rubbish I think. Your claim that tariff-free access would require free movement is just something you have made up. Tariffs are in any case only significant in a handful of sectors.
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
How many times has the treasury economic model predicted a recession? Nada Zilch zero! And then you use this to base projections on leaving the EU. Utterly laughable!
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
How many of them thought the Euro would be a disaster?
How many of them saw the financial crisis coming? (Obviously not the bloody Treasury).
Boris having a car crash interview on Sky. Draws up with bus headlining 350 million saving to be spent on the NHS and the reporter saying that the Office of National statistics has said that it is wholly misleading and also Cornwall receives 600 million in aid from the EU. Also the pasty he waves is protected by EU regs. He just blustered and really gave the impression he couldn't get away from the interview fast enough
Oh dear does that mean that LEAVE has lost the referendum?
Well he needs to come over better.
If Boris comes over any better with swing voters he would be walking on water. Boris's ratings are miles ahead of Cameron's. He clearly does not appeal to you, nor to me, but you are someone who has already decided to REMAIN. To the undecideds Boris is a massive asset to LEAVE.
Boris was good on the wireless this morning vs John Humphries.
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
If our country was asked to join a trading agreement today - one of these famous FTAs that we're not meant to be able to survive without, and they were to say, 'yeah, you get lower tariffs in our market, but there's an upfront cost of £170million (or whatever it is) a week.' 'and our law takes supremacy' 'and you have unrestricted immigration from anyone who has permission to reside within the area, including full benefits' 'and you may on occasion be subject to further charges for baillouts of our pet currency, or if your prostitutes make too much money, or whatever we feel like'
We'd laugh in their face. Even David 'World's shittest negotiator' Cameron wouldn't have the balls to try and sell that to the people.
If we wouldn't go into it now, why is anyone considering committing to it for any further time?
Boris having a car crash interview on Sky. Draws up with bus headlining 350 million saving to be spent on the NHS and the reporter saying that the Office of National statistics has said that it is wholly misleading and also Cornwall receives 600 million in aid from the EU. Also the pasty he waves is protected by EU regs. He just blustered and really gave the impression he couldn't get away from the interview fast enough
I saw him going that and my impression is entirely different - he's getting mobbed and engaging with ordinary people. Nitpicking over the protected status of pasties or where his battle bus is made really isn't going to hurt him.
@IanDunt: What was it Corbyn intended to achieve when he walked into the Commons today?
Sums up Corbyn to a tee. What do you want to achieve and how will you achieve it....Gender segregated train carriages....It is why McMao is far more dangerous.
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
That's why he brought in Barack Obama who had the best overall ratings.
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
If all models have the same flaw then they are all going to produce the same results. Witness the IPCC. We have a name for that: GIGO. What we want is to look at their previous predictions and compare the predictions with the actual results. Mene Mene Tekul Upharsim
In most cases, it might also be considered institutional racism as well, since freely advertising posts would likely produce more varied applicants than recruiting from around the breakfast table.
Why are so many MPs married/partnered with people who don't already have their own career?
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
That's why he brought in Barack Obama who had the best overall ratings.
Since Obama left we have had, 7 polls, 5 for LEAVE, 2 for REMAIN. The worst period of polling for REMAIN? But are these just the wrong polls?
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
I'm not sure that 'Vote Leave to invade Ireland, suppress Christmas, ban entertainments and outlaw gambling and alcohol' is an entirely winning prospectus.
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
Does that mean if we leave we'll be rejoining in eleven years?!
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
Does that mean if we leave we'll be rejoining in eleven years?!
We'd also get to exhume Nigel Farage and put his head on a spike.
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
I'm not sure that 'Vote Leave to invade Ireland, suppress Christmas, ban entertainments and outlaw gambling and alcohol' is an entirely winning prospectus.
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
That's why he brought in Barack Obama who had the best overall ratings.
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
Kle4 and I have already discussed this a few weeks ago.
So you're predicting we'll be rejoining the EU in 2027 and Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage will receive posthumous executions?
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
I'm not sure that 'Vote Leave to invade Ireland, suppress Christmas, ban entertainments and outlaw gambling and alcohol' is an entirely winning prospectus.
The irony of course is that you picked these because they sound ridiculous - but they're all far less stupid than suggesting it might cause a world war. How our PM's star has fallen.
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
That's why he brought in Barack Obama who had the best overall ratings.
And that went really well....
Oh, wait.
Well some of the polls have eventually moved to Remain's advantage since then, especially the economic supplementaries.
I'll be bold, the UK won't vote to Leave the EU if Remain maintains the leads on those numbers.
Oh right, Posted workers directive. That is what he was talking about.
A posted worker is someone who is sent by their employer to another member state but does not, allegedly, become engaged in the employment market of that state. Under current EU law a mobile worker gets the rights and benefits that he would otherwise be entitled as a citizen of that MS as soon as he starts to work there. Posted workers do not have these rights but this directive is intended to give them at least a basket of rights.
So a Rumanian sent here by his Rumanian employer is presumably not covered by our Living Wage requirements at present but would have a minimum set of rights under the Directive if it becomes law.
Hands up anyone who already knew that? Anyone? Anyone at all?
3 questions about this at PMQs? Bizarre. Simply bizarre.
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
That's why he brought in Barack Obama who had the best overall ratings.
"A key factor, I believe, is that UKIP polling support is heaviest in those socio economic groups which have a long record of being less likely to vote"
But how relevant will historical voting records in local and general elections be when it comes to something these people actually care about?
We have seen that Trump can turn out angry WWC men who might not normally vote to primaries in historically high numbers, because they are angry and care about the issues he talks about.
We saw young people who don't normally vote turn out in the Labour leadership election for Corbyn
We saw black voter participation actually surpass white voter turnout in the 2012 Presidential election because Obama's presidency was on the line.
None of these things were predicted. Because pollsters and analysts focused on the wrong set of historical voting patterns.
Is Matt Singh really comparing UKIP energy to vote in local elections to UKIP energy to vote in the one thing their party was created to achieve? Sounds a very iffy proposition to me.
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
Kle4 and I have already discussed this a few weeks ago.
So you're predicting we'll be rejoining the EU in 2027 and Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage will receive posthumous executions?
About as posthumous as this joke, which someone has already made upthread.
Is Matt Singh really comparing UKIP energy to vote in local elections to UKIP energy to vote in the one thing their party was created to achieve? Sounds a very iffy proposition to me.
Well quite. I feel there's quite an element of personal politics showing through in polling analysis. We saw it in spades with Nate Silver...
No one is immune to reaching conclusions they agree with.
Amusing to see the amateur economists here giving all sorts of unquantified reasons why Leave isn't an economic risk.
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
If all models have the same flaw then they are all going to produce the same results. Witness the IPCC. We have a name for that: GIGO. What we want is to look at their previous predictions and compare the predictions with the actual results. Mene Mene Tekul Upharsim
What if the models are producing the correct results though? Thats the big advantage Remain has. I'm no fan of the EU but as its impossible for Leave to prove that I'm not going to be worse off and my house value isn't going to fall of a cliff whats my motivation to take the risk?
Off topic. Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians? REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy. LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
Not sure that Cromwell's state was any more democratic than Charles I's.
As predicted, Dave quotes Patrick Minford on manufacturing and Brexit.
Is he going for the Labour vote again? The man who is 7th out of 7 UK politicians and listed as the least trustworthy person with undecideds should STFU. Thank goodness for LEAVE he does not understand how bad his image is. At the court of David Cameron there is no one with the guts or brains, to point out he is naked.
That's why he brought in Barack Obama who had the best overall ratings.
TLE, you are smart enough to know that Obama's ratings in that poll are apples to the oranges of the rating of the British politicians. They are not comparable simply because Obama is not a British politician. If he were, his ratings would be far worse, even if he did absolutely nothing differently.
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0
Currently forecasting that the Dems win Obama 2012 states + N. Carolina, with Arizona too close to call. That's 347 EC votes plus another 11 if they win AZ. A couple of other states are forecast to be very close though.
If only David Cameron understood that!
I hope Hannan's article will put an end to the single market tripe coming from Remainers such as Osborne “We have had the Leave campaign admit this morning that Britain would leave the single market – that is the largest free trade area in the world – that would be catastrophic for people’s jobs, incomes and livelihoods”. Dear God.
http://capx.co/remain-campaign-is-misleading-voters-on-the-single-market/
"A German defence white paper, leaked last week but supposed to be kept under wraps until after the referendum, leaves no doubt of Germany’s intention to drive through the merger of Europe’s armed forces “and embark on permanent cooperation under common structures”. Germany has begun to combine substantial elements of the Dutch forces with their own."
and
"European officials, including Greeks, Turks and former Yugoslavia countries’ officials have suggested sending troops to the Greek-FYROM border in order to control or even stop the flow of refugees to other European countries. - See more at: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/02/07/brussels-and-berlin-plan-to-send-armed-forces-to-greek-fyrom-border/#sthash.92GNhzpq.dpuf"
There doesn't seem to be any appetite in Europe for effective defence, so are we looking at an army for internal enforcement?
Southam
No, I am not. I am saying that leaving the Single Market will make it harder to do business in the EU. Our business, for example, can organise an event in Barcelona (as we are doing currently) as easily as we can in Birmingham currently. There are no barriers in place. That makes it an efficient option for us and so incentivises us to do more events in Europe - which is good news for our London operation because everything can be handled from there. If we withdraw from the Single Market, those efficiencies are going to reduce and it will take longer to organise events in Europe and more expensive, so we will do fewer of them in Europe and more in Asia and the US. That's bad news for our London operation (and employees) and good news our HK and DC operations. Korean and US companies are not faced with that issue, because they have never built their businesses on being part of the Single Market.
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Out of interest, what are the barriers you see being in place to organising a conference in Barcelona, post Brexit? Have you quantified them?
On the broader point you are groping towards, yes of course there will be some restructuring of the UK economy, post-Brexit. But much of it will be healthy. It's important not to assume that current structures of production are somehow optimal - that is conflating special interests with broader economic welfare.
We will be free to source some imports more cheaply than now, and our overall trade pattern will probably shift further away from the EU over a decade or two as the trade distortions created by EU protectionism unwind.
These are good things especially as the EU is such a slow-growth market, a situation that won't improve I'm afraid - indeed it is likely to get worse due to the EU's catastrophic demographics.
If there is any significance in his choice of country, it may be that the international community is ramping up pressure on Nigeria at the moment in preparation for some intervention.
But whilst looking I found this: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/queen-criticising-rude-chinese-officials-caught-tape-1559399
Queen being (justifiably) disparaging about the Chinese state visit. So it could have been chucking the press a bit of a juicy bone to stop that being widely covered?
Gordon Brown. We will not be joing the Euro. 2005,6,7,8,9,10...
That is consistent with what I've been told by other people in City for Britain and Business for Britain, but I've no personal experience outside my industry.
The individual polls never seem to be the best, but if you have enough of them they work together like a swarm of bees to point us in the correct direction.
That, though, is not how they responded to Michael Gove. Instead, quite deliberately distorting the meaning of “single market”, they tried to suggest that he was calling for tariffs between the EU and Britain.
If we leave the single market, with its dreaded "common set of technical standards" (the horror), we will need to put something in place instead. If we are eschewing the free trade area route (EFTA/EEA), which we cannot join, then we would most likely begin trading on WTO terms, as leading Vote Leave economists advocate. WTO trade terms involve tariffs.
Now, we might be able to negotiate tariff-free access to the single market but it is likely that the quid pro quo will be FMOP. Which we of course (or rather which VL) don't want.
At some point VL has to take control and accept responsibility for what its proponents and members are actually saying.
Now he'll save the EU. What a man!
Basically you are quoting bollocks as usual.
Mumsnet world
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3582536/Millions-US-aid-Syrians-suspended-graft-probe.html
I always wondered how they could afford that island in the South Pacific...
I wonder how many also wife swap?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3381628/The-gilded-life-Miliband-look-away-Ed-emerges-ex-foreign-secretary-pockets-astonishing-400-000-boss-refugee-charity.html
Nice racket, Mr Henman.
Hint: Not all European nations other than those two tinpot dictatorships are in the EFTA/EEA ...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/11/extraordinary-moment-china-censors-bbc-coverage-of-the-queens-co/
Guys, all those factors are in the OECD, IMF, Treasury, NIESR, academic and investment bank models. Basically you are handwaving and saying that all the experts are wrong.
Maybe they are. Maybe.
My enquiries to date have been around speaking to people in various industries to see how being in or out of the EU affects them personally and professionally. So far, this has included financial services and farming (and the security services, if we include Eliza M-B on the radio this morning).
From a waverer this has put me in a position of wanting to Remain because on balance it seems that it will benefit those industries to stay in the EU. I had wanted to expand this anecdotal enquiry by knowing how you, a Leaver, were affected, especially given your concern about kettle regulations. It seems you aren't affected.
That's fine - I will put you down as being concerned about this nebulous concept of sovereignty. The lack of which means we will have a referendum on EU membership in June and could have one every month for the next ten years if we wanted.
Thanks.
Better chance with children.
https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/730353940865253376
He was never the future once.
'and our law takes supremacy'
'and you have unrestricted immigration from anyone who has permission to reside within the area, including full benefits'
'and you may on occasion be subject to further charges for baillouts of our pet currency, or if your prostitutes make too much money, or whatever we feel like'
We'd laugh in their face. Even David 'World's shittest negotiator' Cameron wouldn't have the balls to try and sell that to the people.
If we wouldn't go into it now, why is anyone considering committing to it for any further time?
Are REMAINers the equivalent of the King Charles I supporters and LEAVErs the elected parliamentarians?
REMAINers back the status quo and oppose more democracy.
LEAVErs wanting to change and have more democracy.
WTF are England still persisting with this mad policy and also how is it legal. Surely it is restrict of trade.
"My belief is that winning 2020 should not be the priority of the Labour Party."
Leading candidate for NEC and Corbyn supporter.
Oh, wait.
So you're predicting we'll be rejoining the EU in 2027 and Boris Johnson/Nigel Farage will receive posthumous executions?
@GregHands: He did prepare a Plan B where he was to appear with foie gras, Bockwurst, tapas and Chianti Classico https://t.co/63zlZNi6Md
I'll be bold, the UK won't vote to Leave the EU if Remain maintains the leads on those numbers.
A posted worker is someone who is sent by their employer to another member state but does not, allegedly, become engaged in the employment market of that state. Under current EU law a mobile worker gets the rights and benefits that he would otherwise be entitled as a citizen of that MS as soon as he starts to work there. Posted workers do not have these rights but this directive is intended to give them at least a basket of rights.
So a Rumanian sent here by his Rumanian employer is presumably not covered by our Living Wage requirements at present but would have a minimum set of rights under the Directive if it becomes law.
Hands up anyone who already knew that? Anyone? Anyone at all?
3 questions about this at PMQs? Bizarre. Simply bizarre.
But how relevant will historical voting records in local and general elections be when it comes to something these people actually care about?
We have seen that Trump can turn out angry WWC men who might not normally vote to primaries in historically high numbers, because they are angry and care about the issues he talks about.
We saw young people who don't normally vote turn out in the Labour leadership election for Corbyn
We saw black voter participation actually surpass white voter turnout in the 2012 Presidential election because Obama's presidency was on the line.
None of these things were predicted. Because pollsters and analysts focused on the wrong set of historical voting patterns.
Is Matt Singh really comparing UKIP energy to vote in local elections to UKIP energy to vote in the one thing their party was created to achieve? Sounds a very iffy proposition to me.
But he's a buffoon, of course.
No one is immune to reaching conclusions they agree with.
I'm no fan of the EU but as its impossible for Leave to prove that I'm not going to be worse off and my house value isn't going to fall of a cliff whats my motivation to take the risk?
TLE, you are smart enough to know that Obama's ratings in that poll are apples to the oranges of the rating of the British politicians. They are not comparable simply because Obama is not a British politician. If he were, his ratings would be far worse, even if he did absolutely nothing differently.