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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the online polls when tested against real result

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bizarre story of the day: Ofcom has apparently requested that the EU competition authority blocks the 3 + O2 merger deal, rather than ruling against it themselves.

    They don't have the balls after they allowed the much worse T-Mobile/Orange merger to go ahead.
    It's slightly tangential, but I think the tendency of the British bureaucracy to try and keep their hands 'clean' by passing things off to Brussels is another insidious negative of EU membership.

    (And - if true - the officials involved should be ashamed of themselves.)
    Yes I've said that for a while, the EU makes an easy scapegoat for a lot of bad decision making in Westminster. High levels of immigration is a problem that could be solved at Westminster by making benefits receivable to those with a minimum level of contributions, say 12 months out of the last 24, but politicians in all parties are unwilling to make these tough decisions that will solve the problem but create problems at home given our stupid and out dated rules over universal access to benefits regardless of contributions.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RodCrosby said:

    Some movement to Trump on BF over the last 24 hours. Last traded at 4.2.

    Sam Wang gives him currently a 30% chance [based on historical poll movements between now and November], which would imply he should be at 3.3.

    DYOR

    After the (admittedly still profitable) insanity of the Repulbican nomination market I am staying well, well out of the Presidential market.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    FYI - Any Leavers want to come and abuse me in person, I shall be out campaigning for Remain on Saturday morning in Sheffield city centre

    and possibly this evening in Manchester too.

    Well we seem to be losing alot of leave posters on here who are getting banned,so if you could help with me with the poster Watford who also seems to have vanished .

    Banned or not ?
    Watford is banned according to his profile.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bizarre story of the day: Ofcom has apparently requested that the EU competition authority blocks the 3 + O2 merger deal, rather than ruling against it themselves.

    They don't have the balls after they allowed the much worse T-Mobile/Orange merger to go ahead.
    It's slightly tangential, but I think the tendency of the British bureaucracy to try and keep their hands 'clean' by passing things off to Brussels is another insidious negative of EU membership.

    (And - if true - the officials involved should be ashamed of themselves.)
    Yes I've said that for a while, the EU makes an easy scapegoat for a lot of bad decision making in Westminster. High levels of immigration is a problem that could be solved at Westminster by making benefits receivable to those with a minimum level of contributions, say 12 months out of the last 24, but politicians in all parties are unwilling to make these tough decisions that will solve the problem but create problems at home given our stupid and out dated rules over universal access to benefits regardless of contributions.
    There's a delicious irony: the attempts of politicians and bureaucrats to avoid blame by use of the EU makes it more likely that we leave the EU, and that they will therefore have to take more responsibility in the future,
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    FYI - Any Leavers want to come and abuse me in person, I shall be out campaigning for Remain on Saturday morning in Sheffield city centre

    and possibly this evening in Manchester too.

    Well we seem to be losing alot of leave posters on here who are getting banned,so if you could help with me with the poster Watford who also seems to have vanished .

    Banned or not ?
    I wondered the same about Isam and NigelforEngland
    isam and Nigel have been banned, and I have been in contact with both.

    I don't know about Watford.
    Anyone can check if someone is banned: type in their name, eg:

    @watford30

    Then you can click on it to see their status.

    You can do this in preview, without having to post the message.

    Thank you: I had no idea it was so easy :lol:
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2016
    Alistair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Some movement to Trump on BF over the last 24 hours. Last traded at 4.2.

    Sam Wang gives him currently a 30% chance [based on historical poll movements between now and November], which would imply he should be at 3.3.

    DYOR

    After the (admittedly still profitable) insanity of the Repulbican nomination market I am staying well, well out of the Presidential market.
    Lay Bernie for a ~4% return in about a month's time.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    TOPPING said:

    runnymede said:

    Robert



    Southam is quite right, non-tariff barriers to trade are more important. And the EU erects some quite substantial ones against the rest of the world.

    This is the main cause of the price gaps for key goods between the EU and lower cost locations like the US that I mentioned earlier. There's much to be gained from getting rid of some of these.

    The problem - and this is a general point rather than an EU specific one - is that eliminating non-tariff barriers through treaties means constraining the ability of national parliaments to pass laws they see fit. Want to change intellectual property laws: *beep* non-tariff barrier. Want to enforce minimum standards on people offering medical advice: *beep* non-tariff barrier. Those very treaties that open up markets by reducing NTBs, denude parliaments of sovereignty.

    -----------------------------------

    That's not necessarily the case in this context, Robert. For example quite a large chunk of the EU NTBs relates to anti-dumping actions (or the threat of them) by the EU against ROW suppliers.

    Now a UK outside the EU would not necessarily invoke those anti-dumping investigations - as indeed it should not given quite a lot of them are bogus. That would mean cheaper imports.
    So you want to scrap import tariffs *and* allow cheaper imports via "dumping".

    The very definition of the word "brave".

    So you prefer protectionism? I'm glad we have that cleared up.

    It does make a refreshing change from REMAIN supporters claiming the EU makes the UK economy more 'open' and 'liberal'.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Just to add re banning: as a general rule, being pro-Leave won't get you banned. Being rude or disparaging about OGH or the mods, or posting links that increase the chances of another letter from Carter Ruck will get you banned.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    TOPPING said:

    runnymede said:

    Robert



    Southam is quite right, non-tariff barriers to trade are more important. And the EU erects some quite substantial ones against the rest of the world.

    This is the main cause of the price gaps for key goods between the EU and lower cost locations like the US that I mentioned earlier. There's much to be gained from getting rid of some of these.

    The problem - and this is a general point rather than an EU specific one - is that eliminating non-tariff barriers through treaties means constraining the ability of national parliaments to pass laws they see fit. Want to change intellectual property laws: *beep* non-tariff barrier. Want to enforce minimum standards on people offering medical advice: *beep* non-tariff barrier. Those very treaties that open up markets by reducing NTBs, denude parliaments of sovereignty.

    -----------------------------------

    That's not necessarily the case in this context, Robert. For example quite a large chunk of the EU NTBs relates to anti-dumping actions (or the threat of them) by the EU against ROW suppliers.

    Now a UK outside the EU would not necessarily invoke those anti-dumping investigations - as indeed it should not given quite a lot of them are bogus. That would mean cheaper imports.
    So you want to scrap import tariffs *and* allow cheaper imports via "dumping".

    The very definition of the word "brave".

    So you prefer protectionism? I'm glad we have that cleared up.

    It does make a refreshing change from REMAIN supporters claiming the EU makes the UK economy more 'open' and 'liberal'.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    rcs1000 said:

    There's a delicious irony: the attempts of politicians and bureaucrats to avoid blame by use of the EU makes it more likely that we leave the EU, and that they will therefore have to take more responsibility in the future,

    And when they screw up we can kick the bums out.

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    @runnymede

    (comment format has all gone to cock!)

    I absolutely don't prefer protectionism at all, hence a) my putting dumping in " "; and b) my use of the word brave.

    I think however to sell it to the great british public would be shall we say challenging..
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Bizarre story of the day: Ofcom has apparently requested that the EU competition authority blocks the 3 + O2 merger deal, rather than ruling against it themselves.

    They don't have the balls after they allowed the much worse T-Mobile/Orange merger to go ahead.
    It's slightly tangential, but I think the tendency of the British bureaucracy to try and keep their hands 'clean' by passing things off to Brussels is another insidious negative of EU membership.

    (And - if true - the officials involved should be ashamed of themselves.)
    Yes I've said that for a while, the EU makes an easy scapegoat for a lot of bad decision making in Westminster. High levels of immigration is a problem that could be solved at Westminster by making benefits receivable to those with a minimum level of contributions, say 12 months out of the last 24, but politicians in all parties are unwilling to make these tough decisions that will solve the problem but create problems at home given our stupid and out dated rules over universal access to benefits regardless of contributions.
    There's a delicious irony: the attempts of politicians and bureaucrats to avoid blame by use of the EU makes it more likely that we leave the EU, and that they will therefore have to take more responsibility in the future,
    :smiley:
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    runnymede said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fuel costs hundreds of pounds higher if we leave? Struggling to fill the poster were you?

    Just as validly, you could put out a poster saying hundreds of pounds lower if we leave. For example, how would we block an EU directive requiring an above-inflation fuel duty escalator?

    Pisspoor. C'mon Remain, is that the best you got?
    One of the biggest lies currently being used by REMAIN is the suggestion that 'WTO rules' mean you have to impose swingeing tariffs on things. A bigger distortion of reality is hard to imagine.
    Especially since the whole point of the WTO is to enable a reduction in tariffs and other barriers.
    The EU keeps 75% of all income from import duties i.e. we have to send 75% of what we collect to the EU. If we leave the EU then - assuming all tariffs remain the same for goods outside the EU - our income from import duties would quadruple.

    If the EU went into a protectionist mode then we could (not would) impose import duties on all EU goods being imported into this country. Since that is £420 billion a year, then a 5% import duty (hardly noticeable and would create a small amount of inflation for 1 year) would raise £21 billion pounds a year - In standard currency measure, I make that 1 hospital / week.
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