politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Almost all the online polls when tested against real result

There's a very similar conversation taking place in the Times today - by The Fink
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/if-youre-a-pollster-just-pick-up-the-phone-wfxkdx7xg

The phone polls have still moved markedly closer to the online polls since the start of the year. In December, Com Res and Ipsos MORI had Remain 21% and 26% ahead, respectively.

Sean_F said:

The phone polls have still moved markedly closer to the online polls since the start of the year. In December, Com Res and Ipsos MORI had Remain 21% and 26% ahead, respectively.

TBH, I'm not taking any polls as accurate or otherwise - I can't help feeling that it's still who was Luckiest on the Day. If a pollster manages to consistently call it right over the next year or two - then I'll give them more credence.

Until then, I'll stick to trend watching. Also the EU ref isn't an election - I'm very unsure that we can simply cut and paste the same behaviours.

And finally, I find @chestnut's analysis much more insightful when it comes to digging into the weeds. I hope he's the time to post about this today.

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

Well quite. There's more than a whiff of apples and pears in this. I'm also very chary when it comes to anointing any one person as a soothsayer. We saw it with Nate Silver in spades. He got it right, then very very wrong.

Surely this is just another example of what we saw at the election. Online polling finds it very difficult to attract and retain balanced samples. Those that are more strongly motivated are more likely to fill in the survey and the higher the proportion of motivated voters gets the less like the whole the sample becomes.

I think translating this into a problem for Leave is frankly stretching it. Firstly, UKIP only form a part of the Leave support, somewhere around 1/3 so any such effect is divisible by 3. Secondly, it is entirely possible that there may be offsetting factors. For example the overstatement of UKIP tends to be at the cost of Tory support. And the majority of Tory support (just) is for Leave. The Scottish referendum also showed that a surprising number of DNVs did in a one off referendum.

I could be wrong about this of course. But we won't have a clear idea until the results come in. Polling partly redeemed itself last Thursday, particularly in London where they were pretty well spot on, at least for the top 2, but it has a long way to go.

It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.

UKIP won 14% in England and Wales, in these elections, or 16.5% per candidate, which is close enough to its online average share. Still, we had no polling for PCC elections, so maybe such polling would have overstated UKIP.

Anyway, for those Leavers that find this polling analysis distressing, here's a Guardian article on how Beatrix Potter is a primer for navigating the merciless currents of amoral capitalism:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/10/beatrix-potter-tales-britain-capitalism

Online polls don't consistently overstate UKIP. The final General Election polls for Yougov, BMG, and Opinium all had UKIP on 12%. All three companies are also showing a close race in this Referendum.

I'm no expert on polling, but I understand the basics of statistics. Doesn't horses for courses come into this? I'm a leaver, so I voted for Ukip at the Euro elections and I carried it on at the GE just to send a message, but this time ... PCC, council? Hardly relevant. For the council, I'd have voted LD had one been available. And for the PCC, it was too irrelevant to contemplate.

I could well have stated that I'm a Ukip voter if asked by a polling company, though.

Systematic bias is always possible in polling and that's a fault of the companies. If you can't get a representative sample, don't do it.

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

My distinct impression of UKIP after the last 36 months is that they are strongest in predominantly white lower-middle class areas. Which tend to be suburbs rather than shires, and which did vote last week.

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.

Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

My distinct impression of UKIP after the last 36 months is that they are strongest in predominantly white lower-middle class areas. Which tend to be suburbs rather than shires, and which did vote last week.

UKIP's strongest counties are Kent and Essex, especially the Thames Estuary, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, and Suffolk.

Plato_Says said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.

Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.

It depends what you mean by "doing well". UKIP didn't win any of the positions, but they got a strong vote share.

Moses_ said:

FPT(s)

Given Richard Nabavis long list of dignitaries, the high and mightiest and other assorted odds and sods that are for remain and have ruled over our lives despite being wrong on multiple occasions yet not held accountable.......It would be a superb, opal fruit momment if it was a Feck you all and if Leave wins. It's would be worth it just for that alone. The utter confusion amongst them that would ensue would be a sight to see.

I think remain will win but if the threats continue from remain that's just what the outcome could be because the Brits are stubborn and they don't like being pushed around. If leave won though there is little doubt that we will be punished for making the "wrong decision".

By the way, Won't be posting until later today now, have to dig my WW3 bunker in the back garden just in case.

Happy Anderson Day! http://www.for-sale.co.uk/anderson-shelter

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.

I should think the types of Conservatives who will vote Leave will come from high turnout groups (older, middle class).

richardDodd said:

PM slagged off for telling the truth..ya gorra larf

Nigeria and Afghanistan being corrupt is up there with the Pope being Catholic.

runnymede said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.

Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.

"Whenever I feel afraid, I hold my head erect, and whistle a happy tune, so no one will suspect -

I'm afraid."

Alternatively, we can look at facts rather than comforting hypotheses without supporting evidence. DavidL, perhaps instinctively, has used calculations to suggest a bare minimum effect.

Matt Singh suggests that social conservatives in general are overrepresented, which in turn would mean that not just kippers but paleo-Conservatives also would be overrepresented. If so, Leave could be overstated by considerably more than 0.5%.

But I'm sure you'll prefer just to stick your head in the sand.

.

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

My distinct impression of UKIP after the last 36 months is that they are strongest in predominantly white lower-middle class areas. Which tend to be suburbs rather than shires, and which did vote last week.

UKIP's strongest counties are Kent and Essex, especially the Thames Estuary, Lincolnshire, South Yorkshire, and Suffolk.

Where is Sussex in that ranking? We had quite a few elected down my way at the LEs.

blackburn63 said:

btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

voters, eh - what can you do with them?

...already waffling

Good morning, everyone.

Anyone know what interactive services detection is? Got a pop-up just now. Had a quick search on Twitter/Youtube [where I found an apparent fix, not yet enacted].

The threadstarter is bound up closely with what turnout will be. Higher overall turnout would diminish any theoretical gap between polls and the result.

However, it's also worth noting that Conservatives are likely to turnout (in relative terms), and Labour less so. That helps Leave.

Wanderer said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.

The effect is quite small but you can't scale it down as you do there, I think. If we assume that all Kippers will vote Leave (not strictly true, of course) then if UKIP's support is 2 percentage points lower than expected that is 2% off the Leave score. It's a smaller proportion of the overall Leave vote than of the UKIP vote, of course.

But, that wouldn't be the net effect. All UKIP voters (as near as makes no difference) will vote Leave, but then, so will plenty of non-UKIP voters. If online polls oversample UKIP voters by 2-3%, the effect would be to overstate Leave support by perhaps 1-1.5%.

DavidL said:

runnymede said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.

Questioning the holy writ of the high priests of Remain cannot be countenanced.

I was presuming that this was just to keep their spirits up when Leave leads in the polling become more consistent.

It'll be interesting to see if WAR!!! effects the polling. Snap poll by YouGov showed the vast majority weren't impressed at all. The US ex-Defence bods weren't well received either [see Obama].

Remain needs to find something positive to say. Sending Johnny Foreigner round to put the frighteners on us doesn't seem to working too well given the polling.

blackburn63 said:

TOPPING said:

blackburn63 said:

btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

voters, eh - what can you do with them?

Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

Do you?

I'd rather have some form of police accountability than no form of police accountability.

Sadly I have no say over who becomes my police commissioner. I wish I did.

blackburn63 said:

TOPPING said:

blackburn63 said:

btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

voters, eh - what can you do with them?

Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

Do you?

No, I don't coolly write two sentences, the second of which contradicts the first.

I'll let you into a secret. No one here likes representative democracy. We just can't agree who the dictator should be...

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

Mr. Max, it was outrageous. The Nigerians are well-known for their mature approach to money. Only this week, one of their former generals offered to give me a million dollars.

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.

Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.

If you look at my earlier reference to the PCC in Kent it was won by the Conservative candidate who was working as Office Manager to a govt whip, he was effectively a full time paid candidate. The Ukip chap was ex army and police who gave up his job to run the campaign.

I'm sure the whole Kent constabulary is delighted that a 31 year old career politician is their new boss.

Is this really the way to go, I mean really?

To me this cuts to the heart of the referendum debate and why I'm so desperate to leave, I want to send a message to the establishment.

I quite agree re the quality of some candidates. Speaking for myself - I voted for the incumbent Tory, she seems harmless and quite good. I wouldn't vote UKIP - it's all a bit too hang-em-and-flog-em as a brand. I'm very torn about ex-plod poacher turned gamekeepers. They know all the tricks, but could easily go native.

Don't know the answer - I'd happily vote for a recent senior ex-Armed Services sort. They've got similar mindsets but not infected by the policing culture.

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

So the Prime Minister has an awkward couple of conversations ahead? I can't imagine either president can protest too profusely that he's wrong. This might even help them domestically implement anti-corruption policies, if they are so inclined.

Sean_F said:

Wanderer said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's amazing how people can refuse to follow a simple well-made argument when they find its conclusions disappointing.

Well lets look at that argument Alastair. The rough estimate is that polls overstate UKIP voters in other elections by about 2%. If UKIP supporters form 1/3 of Leave then the effect is 2/3% . That assumes that the factors that result in UKIP supporters ultimately not bothering to vote apply in a Euro referendum. The Euro results show they have a stronger tendency to vote in EU matters than other groups of supporters. That is why they won in a low turnout election. So is that a safe assumption?

Who knows? Maybe the polls are overstating Leave by 0.5% or so and maybe that will prove critical because it will be so close. But it is not likely to be a game changer. What I would say is that those that assume that Leavers will turn out disproportionately need to think about this effect. I am sure Mike is right that UKIP support does tend to come from groups who on average are less likely to vote.

The effect is quite small but you can't scale it down as you do there, I think. If we assume that all Kippers will vote Leave (not strictly true, of course) then if UKIP's support is 2 percentage points lower than expected that is 2% off the Leave score. It's a smaller proportion of the overall Leave vote than of the UKIP vote, of course.

But, that wouldn't be the net effect. All UKIP voters (as near as makes no difference) will vote Leave, but then, so will plenty of non-UKIP voters. If online polls oversample UKIP voters by 2-3%, the effect would be to overstate Leave support by perhaps 1-1.5%.

I see what you mean. Yes, that's true.

Scott_P said:

@BBCr4today: We should leave EU single market, says Boris Johnson. “We should get out of the empire of EU law making.” #EUref https://t.co/bU4Bubnv5n

So it wasn't a gaffe by Gove, this really is the new Brexit line.

But...America has access to the single market...what on earth was the post office thinking charging me duty on some CDs I bought recently from the US??

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

It's doing it using the Queen that I object to.

Plato_Says said:

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

It's doing it using the Queen I object too.

I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.

Now I come to think of it, weren't Labour significantly overstated in the General Election polling?

dugarbandier said:

Plato_Says said:

blackburn63 said:

Plato_Says said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Hmmm.... UKIP's strength is in the English shires. Which, er, didn't vote last Thursday...

UKIP did not do well in the PCC elections, except in Essex. In Leics and Rutland they came fourth out of 4 candidates. The projected national vote share was below their recent polling by several points.

Cyberkippers are rather like cybernats, disproportionally populating the internet. There are several assumptions that need to be made to reach the conclusion that this carries through to the Brexit referendum, but not unreasonable ones.

Given Kippers are currently railing against the machine, it's no wonder that they don't do well in very Establishment type jobs such as PCC elections. It's not their strong suit and their candidates don't tend to come from ex Police Authority backgrounds. They simply don't have the CVs or agenda to succeed.

I'd be very wary of drawing any conclusions whatsoever from PCC votes.

If you look at my earlier reference to the PCC in Kent it was won by the Conservative candidate who was working as Office Manager to a govt whip, he was effectively a full time paid candidate. The Ukip chap was ex army and police who gave up his job to run the campaign.

I'm sure the whole Kent constabulary is delighted that a 31 year old career politician is their new boss.

Is this really the way to go, I mean really?

To me this cuts to the heart of the referendum debate and why I'm so desperate to leave, I want to send a message to the establishment.

I quite agree re the quality of some candidates. Speaking for myself - I voted for the incumbent Tory, she seems harmless and quite good. I wouldn't vote UKIP - it's all a bit too hang-em-and-flog-em as a brand. I'm very torn about ex-plod poacher turned gamekeepers. They know all the tricks, but could easily go native.

Don't know the answer - I'd happily vote for a recent senior ex-Armed Services sort. They've got similar mindsets but not infected by the policing culture.

the whole thing just makes me think of batman (the duff tv one, obv.)

It was a lost opportunity by the OMRLP to put up a Mr Gordon for Commissioner, whose only policy would be to man the Bat-phone...

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

Plato_Says said:

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

It's doing it using the Queen I object too.

I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.

Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.

I'd be grateful if you would take your speargun and step away from the barrel.

blackburn63 said:

tlg86 said:

Plato_Says said:

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

It's doing it using the Queen I object too.

I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.

I disagree, I view it as nothing more than a casual remark that has been blown out of all proportion by Cameron bashers. I'm a Cameron basher but there's nothing to see here.

You mean that you're a more intelligent Cameron basher than all the other Cameron bashers? Who'd a thunk it

@chrisshipitv: Tooting by election to replace @SadiqKhan as MP will be on 16 June, the electoral officer decides. One week *before* EU referendum

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Tooting by election to replace @SadiqKhan as MP will be on 16 June, the electoral officer decides. One week *before* EU referendum

Mike's still on holiday then.

Safe Lab hold nailed on, on past form. Ahem

Plato_Says said:

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

Plato_Says said:

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

It's doing it using the Queen I object too.

I have no doubt that the comments by the PM and the Queen yesterday were intended to be made public. I just don't know for what purpose.

Can someone look up the threads when the Sun announced that the Queen supported Brexit? Just for comparison purposes, like.

What's your point? I honestly don't know what that was all about yesterday, but I'm not buying that that the PM and the Queen were both caught out making diplomatically sensitive comments on the same day.

The Queen was filmed having a private conversation with a police commander - good manners meant these sort of videos weren't broadcast before. I can't imagine Buck House is at all impressed that it's been shown/things will change if guests and broadcasters can't be trusted.

If that's the case I imagine the queen is not amused!

Interesting soundbites from Boris on Sky - £110m goes on Spanish bull-fighting and another slice on Greek tobacco subsidies.

He's in Truro reassuring those areas getting Objective X funding that they'll still get it - it just won't be laundered via Brussels.

ThreeQuidder said:

MarkSenior said:

Sean Fear still in denial I see of clear evidence that UKIP are overstated in Online polls by 3 to 5% . Welsh Assembly UKIP actually polled 12.5% compared to pollsters 16 %

At the general election UKIP were overstated by about 0.5%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

Is the referendum going to be more like a general election or more like a Welsh Assembly election?

Online pollsters purport to show that UKIP support has increased since the 2015 GE , telephone pollsters show it is slightly down . The local elections last week confirm that the online pollsters are wrong and telephone pollsters are right .

PClipp said:

TOPPING said:

blackburn63 said:

TOPPING said:

blackburn63 said:

btw the bloke who won the Kent PCC was Matthew Scott

Members of the Kent Conservatives convened for a meeting today to select their PCC candidate for 2016's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. We would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Matthew Scott on his selection as Conservative Candidate.

Matthew, from Swanley, attended Beth’s Grammar School before graduating in Public Policy, Government and Management at the University of Birmingham. He works as the office manager for government whip David Evenett.

The politicisation of the police under our very noses.

voters, eh - what can you do with them?

Oh yes I respect the will of the people, I don't agree with political parties running the police and parachuting their people into office.

Do you?

Irrelevant. It was put to the voters and they decided. Anyone can put themselves up for PCCs AFAIK.

But not everybody has a wealthy party machine behind them.

True. There was a nice leaflet explaining everyone's views which ISTR cost the candidates £9,000 each. Average spend in 2012 was £11,200. The salary is £100,000. I don't think those are crazy figures for non-aligned candidates to match.

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

People who are berating the PM at the moment may as well do the same when he says water is wet, I don't understand the controversy, both nations mentioned are highly corrupt and Nigeria has a well earned reputation for fraud and scamming.

So the Prime Minister has an awkward couple of conversations ahead? I can't imagine either president can protest too profusely that he's wrong. This might even help them domestically implement anti-corruption policies, if they are so inclined.

Alternatively, we can just slip them a couple of quid to keep shtum.