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System
System Posts: 12,578
edited May 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We mustn’t let the focus on Scotland and London over-shadow the poor CON performance in the English locals

The narrative on election night tends to be set by what happens overnight Thurs/Fri and little attention has been paid to the outcomes in the English local council elections where the Tories, as can be seen, came well below expectations.

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Comments

  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited May 2016
    First. Lib Dems doing well now, even here.....
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    I would expect better from PB than to fall into the fallacy of quoting absolute seat numbers as if they prove something.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2016


    Rats! Sniped again.

    Third like SLAB.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    ThreeQuidder said:

    I would expect better from PB than to fall into the fallacy of quoting absolute seat numbers as if they prove something.

    :+1:
  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    Plato_Says said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    I would expect better from PB than to fall into the fallacy of quoting absolute seat numbers as if they prove something.

    :+1:
    They prove that the Lib Dems are not extinct, as most Tory posters on PB seem to think. And some unpleasant Labour people, like young Mr Owen.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Additionally, the Tories' voteshare of 32% (as per Rallings & Thrasher) is one of the WORST performances for a newly-(re-)elected government in the past 30 years.

    The only governments that have done worse in the first local elections of a cycle were the Tories in 1993 (31%) and Labour in 2006 (26%) - both of whom, of course, went onto lose the nest general election. It is also WELL down on the 38% that the Tories got in 2011.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    PClipp said:

    Plato_Says said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    I would expect better from PB than to fall into the fallacy of quoting absolute seat numbers as if they prove something.

    :+1:
    They prove that the Lib Dems are not extinct, as most Tory posters on PB seem to think. And some unpleasant Labour people, like young Mr Owen.
    Actually it proves that the latest government woes are leading some ex-LD's who voted Tory in the GE back to the LD's.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    ThreeQuidder said:

    I would expect better from PB than to fall into the fallacy of quoting absolute seat numbers as if they prove something.

    Indeed (I have a similar problem with just reporting percentages, but that's a different conversation).

    I also have a philosophical problem with this thread. Comparing a real event with a prediction is not "underperforming" nor "overperforming". Reality did not agree with Prof Rallings's prediction. That's not reality's fault... :)
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    edited May 2016
    Pretty poor performance by Professor Rallings. About as far out as I can remember.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Long ago the Lib Dems learned that with a FPTP system you need to concentrate your votes in certain areas to win seats.

    Having 15% everywhere and winning no seats doesn't help have influence getting your policies implemented - as UKIP have found..
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Cameron's becoming a liability. They need to get Johnson in as leader once he's won the referendum, the London results underlined his political magic.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Cameron's becoming a liability. They need to get Johnson in as leader once he's won the referendum, the London results underlined his political magic.

    Charisma can give you a boost and hide your deficiencies well.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    If the Conservatives have underperformed, surely the question is why? Europe; retoxification; the budget? None of the above; all of the above?
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Hugely disappointing for the Tories, but hardly surprising following the internal strife over the EU, not to mention Osborne's inept performance as regards the budget.
    The blue team's worst performance over the past 6 years by far.
    Although Zac was a poor choice as theTories' nominee for London Mayor, I doubt whether anyone else could have won against this backdrop.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    If the Conservatives have underperformed, surely the question is why? Europe; retoxification; the budget? None of the above; all of the above?

    Cameron and his clique are past their expiry date. It's time for them to be put out to lecture circuit.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    LOL After the pollsters got the 2015 GE so wrong, why is Mike now saying that, instead of the pollsters getting the 2016 Locals wrong, CON and UKIP underperformed? Is it not just possible that the pollsters are still getting it wrong but in a different direction now?

    Either way, not good news for Cameron.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Speedy said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Cameron's becoming a liability. They need to get Johnson in as leader once he's won the referendum, the London results underlined his political magic.

    Charisma can give you a boost and hide your deficiencies well.
    London could afford to have Boris as Mayor. The country can't afford to have him as PM.
  • Innocent_Abroad
    Innocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Speedy said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Cameron's becoming a liability. They need to get Johnson in as leader once he's won the referendum, the London results underlined his political magic.

    Charisma can give you a boost and hide your deficiencies well.
    And if it doesn't, President Trump will arrange for the removal of all elected Muslims, surely...

  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Did LD gain seats mostly from Labour or Tories?

  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    As soon as libdems distance themselves from tories they start making progress, same for UUP. Lesson: Never get into bed with the tories. Not forgetting SLab ofcourse although since they supported the Union how could they not be associated with them?

    Tories may have won a majority and will win in 2020 but they have to do more to get rid of the rich party status if they want to win in the very long term.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Bristol 2 member wards now declaring councillors now Lab 4 LD 3 Con 2
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    David_Evershed said:

    Long ago the Lib Dems learned that with a FPTP system you need to concentrate your votes in certain areas to win seats.

    Having 15% everywhere and winning no seats doesn't help have influence getting your policies implemented - as UKIP have found..

    Indeed, though if we do get a slew of byelections following the investigations into Con spending in 2015 we will get some tasty Con LD battles in the main. That would be a real sign of revival if the LDs took them back.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Extremely target progress but progress nonetheless for the LDs, but they look pretty dead in most places alas. We need stronger parties in third and fourth to nip at the heels of the big two, and I still cannot see UKIP managing it outside a few places.
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Cameron's becoming a liability. They need to get Johnson in as leader once he's won the referendum, the London results underlined his political magic.

    I don't know that his appeal would exceed Cameron's outside London even with present difficulties.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MTimT said:

    LOL After the pollsters got the 2015 GE so wrong, why is Mike now saying that, instead of the pollsters getting the 2016 Locals wrong, CON and UKIP underperformed? Is it not just possible that the pollsters are still getting it wrong but in a different direction now?

    Either way, not good news for Cameron.


    Tbf, the pollsters were pretty good this time on London and Wales, although they were a bit out on Scotland. YouGov also came close to the local elections voteshares, with their recent Labour leads of 1-3%.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    peter_from_putney said:

    Hugely disappointing for the Tories, but hardly surprising following the internal strife over the EU, not to mention Osborne's inept performance as regards the budget.
    The blue team's worst performance over the past 6 years by far.
    Although Zac was a poor choice as theTories' nominee for London Mayor, I doubt whether anyone else could have won against this backdrop.

    Agreed. There are several hundred conservative council candidates who lost out at this election purely because of Cameron and Osborne's decisions this year. Why did they call the referendum so early and not delay to Sept? It could have made these elections have better results for the Conservatives.
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Danny565 said:

    Additionally, the Tories' voteshare of 32% (as per Rallings & Thrasher) is one of the WORST performances for a newly-(re-)elected government in the past 30 years.

    The only governments that have done worse in the first local elections of a cycle were the Tories in 1993 (31%) and Labour in 2006 (26%) - both of whom, of course, went onto lose the nest general election. It is also WELL down on the 38% that the Tories got in 2011.

    Indeed. It is also worth noting that the NEV given to the Tories at the 2011 elections - 38% - pretty well matched their General Election share in 2015 - ie no recovery from 2011 at all. On that basis, perhaps we are looking at a 32% Con share in 2020!
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    1 ward to Green and 1 split Green/LD Now Lab 4 LD 4 Green 3 Con 2
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    We mustn't forget the Lib Dems' fantastic performances in Wales and London either.
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    If the Conservatives have underperformed, surely the question is why? Europe; retoxification; the budget? None of the above; all of the above?

    There is also the related question about why the Conservatives didn't overperform against expectations in England, given the unremitting media focus on Corbyn's troubles in the week leading up to the polls, all of which could have been expected to damage Labour and to have distracted from the Conservatives' own troubles.



  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    29th like SLab in 2017 locals
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    https://twitter.com/Chops8592/status/728912015876603905

    Thogh I hear that the minarets at St Pauls will take a little longer.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2016
    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Er no... Johnson and Gove are representing the majority view of their Party.... It's Cameron and Osborne that are at odds with their Party (after spending a decade pretending to be eurosceptics)

    And lets not get started on Camerons "renegotiation" fiasco...
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Gove is Scottish. Try another boiler plate jingle.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    I'd be really concerned if someone like Keir Starmer were leading Labour. He's not amiing for much attention yet as a very new MP, but one to watch - and he loved the limelight as CPS bod.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Hugely disappointing for the Tories, but hardly surprising following the internal strife over the EU, not to mention Osborne's inept performance as regards the budget.
    The blue team's worst performance over the past 6 years by far.
    Although Zac was a poor choice as theTories' nominee for London Mayor, I doubt whether anyone else could have won against this backdrop.

    Agreed. There are several hundred conservative council candidates who lost out at this election purely because of Cameron and Osborne's decisions this year. Why did they call the referendum so early and not delay to Sept? It could have made these elections have better results for the Conservatives.
    Migration crisis repeated
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    runnymede said:

    We mustn't forget the Lib Dems' fantastic performances in Wales and London either.

    It was impressive :smiley:
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    justin124 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Additionally, the Tories' voteshare of 32% (as per Rallings & Thrasher) is one of the WORST performances for a newly-(re-)elected government in the past 30 years.

    The only governments that have done worse in the first local elections of a cycle were the Tories in 1993 (31%) and Labour in 2006 (26%) - both of whom, of course, went onto lose the nest general election. It is also WELL down on the 38% that the Tories got in 2011.

    Indeed. It is also worth noting that the NEV given to the Tories at the 2011 elections - 38% - pretty well matched their General Election share in 2015 - ie no recovery from 2011 at all. On that basis, perhaps we are looking at a 32% Con share in 2020!
    Points that I do not recall that the conservatives "cchq expert rob hayward" did not mention in the interview on the podcast. He seemed to have few numbers and a lot to say on personalities and generalties.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Gove is Scottish. Try another boiler plate jingle.
    Then he should try his luck as an MP in an independent Scotland if we vote leave.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    But the Scottish Tories also had a leader who was much more likeable than anyone on the Tory Westminster bench, bar Cameron and Boris.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Plato_Says said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    I'd be really concerned if someone like Keir Starmer were leading Labour. He's not amiing for much attention yet as a very new MP, but one to watch - and he loved the limelight as CPS bod.
    It's only a matter of time before Labour get back up off the floor and fight back... Those people thinking Con will go on and on and on (a lot of them despondent lefties it has be said ;) ) would be shocked at how quickly things would turn around if someone sensible took over Labour.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    felix said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Gove is Scottish. Try another boiler plate jingle.
    Then he should try his luck as an MP in an independent Scotland if we vote leave.
    Being in the EU has done so much to stop the rise of the SNP, you bet.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Er no... Johnson and Gove are representing the majority view of their Party.... It's Cameron and Osborne that are at odds with their Party (after spending a decade pretending to be eurosceptics)

    And lets not get started on Camerons "renegotiation" fiasco...
    Lol - The 'Angry' party closely followed by the 'nasty' party. Same result either way.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade... Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Not their undying love for the EU. Just their desire to win at all costs. An exercise in macho pride.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    They came a distant second!
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Er no... Johnson and Gove are representing the majority view of their Party.... It's Cameron and Osborne that are at odds with their Party (after spending a decade pretending to be eurosceptics)
    It remains to be which side the party's voters are on.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    But the Scottish Tories also had a leader who was much more likeable than anyone on the Tory Westminster bench, bar Cameron and Boris.
    Easier to blame everything on the Eurosceptics. Anyone would think the Eurofanatics make up the majority of the party the way they are going on...
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Plato_Says said:

    runnymede said:

    We mustn't forget the Lib Dems' fantastic performances in Wales and London either.

    It was impressive :smiley:
    Lib Dems' fantastic performances in Wales and London was a onedonder....
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    GIN1138 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    I'd be really concerned if someone like Keir Starmer were leading Labour. He's not amiing for much attention yet as a very new MP, but one to watch - and he loved the limelight as CPS bod.
    It's only a matter of time before Labour get back up off the floor and fight back... Those people thinking Con will go on and on and on (a lot of them despondent lefties it has be said ;) ) would be shocked at how quickly things would turn around if someone sensible took over Labour.
    True, but the members do not want that.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    They came a distant second!
    The performance was a massive boost from where they've been and they put Labour into 3rd. Their first serious move forward in decades.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    Look at how well the Tories did in Scotland with a leader who favours Remain ;-)

    But I agree Super Thursday was a score draw. A score draw is progress for the LDs.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Er no... Johnson and Gove are representing the majority view of their Party.... It's Cameron and Osborne that are at odds with their Party (after spending a decade pretending to be eurosceptics)
    It remains to be which side the party's voters are on.
    Con voters will lean heavily to OUT, that's why we have the irony of Cameron needing Labour voters to save his job... Though judging by the number of working class Lab to UKIP switchers that could be unlikely in the northern heartlands?
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Plato_Says said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Hugely disappointing for the Tories, but hardly surprising following the internal strife over the EU, not to mention Osborne's inept performance as regards the budget.
    The blue team's worst performance over the past 6 years by far.
    Although Zac was a poor choice as theTories' nominee for London Mayor, I doubt whether anyone else could have won against this backdrop.

    Agreed. There are several hundred conservative council candidates who lost out at this election purely because of Cameron and Osborne's decisions this year. Why did they call the referendum so early and not delay to Sept? It could have made these elections have better results for the Conservatives.
    Migration crisis repeated
    Councillors sacrificed for the EU.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Danny565 said:

    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    But the Scottish Tories also had a leader who was much more likeable than anyone on the Tory Westminster bench, bar Cameron and Boris.
    That was kinda my point :)
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    nunu said:

    As soon as libdems distance themselves from tories they start making progress...

    That's not strictly true. I assume the uptick in LD performance in Scotland was due to a residual affinity to the Libs since the Clearances plus the post-Sindyref aestivation of SLab: there is a gap for a pro-Unionist anti-SNP vote and the LDs may be well placed to so expand in Scotland.

    But these factors are not necessarily true in, say, South Wales or the South-West of England.

    The antiLabour vote in South Wales is being filled by UKIP (OK, Plaid as well - Leanne taking Rhondda is like Corbyn taking Horsham), not LD. Similarly in the South-West of England, the antiCon vote is being filled by UKIP, not LD.


  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The LDs are a complete waste o f space.. that is why they got booted at the GE..
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    They came a distant second!
    The performance was a massive boost from where they've been and they put Labour into 3rd. Their first serious move forward in decades.
    I'm looking to threads on the LDs near extinction level performance in these Assemblies. A brace Scottish pandas between them.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    GIN1138 said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Er no... Johnson and Gove are representing the majority view of their Party.... It's Cameron and Osborne that are at odds with their Party
    Party voters or party members? The former is pretty evenly split, IIRC.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    felix said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    felix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Johnson and Gove have split the Tories with their little England isolationism........
    Gove is Scottish. Try another boiler plate jingle.
    Then he should try his luck as an MP in an independent Scotland if we vote leave.
    Being in the EU has done so much to stop the rise of the SNP, you bet.
    If you think a leave vote will help to bind the Scots to the union you are seriously mistaken.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne have split the Tories with their undying love for the EU. Given the circumstances I think Con did remarkably well in the English locals but if Labour get their act togther Con are finished for a decade...

    Thanks to Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives are one decent Labour leader away from oblivion...

    Yes and the split goes quite deep and getting deeper by the day.

    Therein there are 3 possibilies:

    1. Remain wins by more than 10% and most, (not all) of the Tories creep back into the main body.

    2. Remain wins by less than 4% and the the main body loses members and and some MP's to form New Tories.

    3. Leave wins by any margin. Civil War breaks outwith even members coming to blows. Half the Tory party membership leave to form NEW TORIES. Cameron and Osborne resign after many top Tories refuse to serve under them.

    It's fascinating to watch. ;)
  • runnymede
    runnymede Posts: 2,536
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato_Says said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Hugely disappointing for the Tories, but hardly surprising following the internal strife over the EU, not to mention Osborne's inept performance as regards the budget.
    The blue team's worst performance over the past 6 years by far.
    Although Zac was a poor choice as theTories' nominee for London Mayor, I doubt whether anyone else could have won against this backdrop.

    Agreed. There are several hundred conservative council candidates who lost out at this election purely because of Cameron and Osborne's decisions this year. Why did they call the referendum so early and not delay to Sept? It could have made these elections have better results for the Conservatives.
    Migration crisis repeated
    Councillors sacrificed for the EU.
    They'd happily sacrifice their whole party.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Rather sunny, without being horrendously humid, for once.

    Did the blues do all that badly?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Jeremy Corbyn infuriates his own Shadow Cabinet by planning a HOLIDAY just days before June's EU referendum

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3579595/Jeremy-Corbyn-infuriates-Shadow-Cabinet-planning-HOLIDAY-just-days-June-s-EU-referendum.html

    I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Speak for yourself.....Here it is humid, and pissing it down in equal measures.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Rather sunny, without being horrendously humid, for once.

    Did the blues do all that badly?

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Rather sunny, without being horrendously humid, for once.

    Did the blues do all that badly?

    I think 'inconclusive' is the best summary of the results this time around - there honestly seems to have been bad signs for all parties, but also some genuinely good signs too, even Corbyn and the LDs.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    MTimT said:

    LOL After the pollsters got the 2015 GE so wrong, why is Mike now saying that, instead of the pollsters getting the 2016 Locals wrong, CON and UKIP underperformed? Is it not just possible that the pollsters are still getting it wrong but in a different direction now?

    Either way, not good news for Cameron.

    I think UKIP getting fewer view votes than the libdems is underperforming.

    Re the conservatives, that's a harder call.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn infuriates his own Shadow Cabinet by planning a HOLIDAY just days before June's EU referendum

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3579595/Jeremy-Corbyn-infuriates-Shadow-Cabinet-planning-HOLIDAY-just-days-June-s-EU-referendum.html

    I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....

    Isn't it fab - he's taking *hiding* to a whole new level. I'm delighted.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    runnymede said:

    We mustn't forget the Lib Dems' fantastic performances in Wales and London either.

    The libdems did shockingly in both. But add up all their votes, and compare them to 2012 (which was their highpoint last parliament), and they have improved markedly, and comfortably beaten ukip in terms of total votes.

    I think if you'd offered them this result six months ago, they'd have taken it.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    foxinsoxuk said:

    felix said:

    The performance overall was inconclusive for everyone - we need Europe out of the way. If wevote to stay, the economic blip of the moment could easily and rapidly reverse. If not, the country faces chaos with regard to Scotland, the economy and so much more. The Conservatives will not win if they stay divided and/or move to the right. Look at how well they did in Scotland with a strong, modern centre right slant. It's really not rocket science.

    Look at how well the Tories did in Scotland with a leader who favours Remain ;-)

    But I agree Super Thursday was a score draw. A score draw is progress for the LDs.
    The Scottish Tory performance is this time the one that needs to be heard by the party in the rest of the
    UK. The obsession over Europe is the comfort zone for the Tory right and it's a killer for the future electoral prospects. Very sad - it maybe they need to learn the lessons of the 90s all over again.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    rcs1000 said:

    MTimT said:

    LOL After the pollsters got the 2015 GE so wrong, why is Mike now saying that, instead of the pollsters getting the 2016 Locals wrong, CON and UKIP underperformed? Is it not just possible that the pollsters are still getting it wrong but in a different direction now?

    Either way, not good news for Cameron.

    I think UKIP getting fewer view votes than the libdems is underperforming.

    Re the conservatives, that's a harder call.
    The Kippers won seats in Welsh/London Ass.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Tyson, well, not everywhere has the temperate climate of sunny Yorkshire :)

    Mr. Urquhart, Chairman Corbyn cannot be expected to ignore the International People's Manhole Cover Annual General Meeting just because of a trifling continental vote.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn infuriates his own Shadow Cabinet by planning a HOLIDAY just days before June's EU referendum

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3579595/Jeremy-Corbyn-infuriates-Shadow-Cabinet-planning-HOLIDAY-just-days-June-s-EU-referendum.html

    I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....

    Well there is little doubt that Corbyn doesn't really believe much in the EU.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    Why is Bristol still counting when the view was like three days ago? :open_mouth:
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2016
    Speedy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn infuriates his own Shadow Cabinet by planning a HOLIDAY just days before June's EU referendum

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3579595/Jeremy-Corbyn-infuriates-Shadow-Cabinet-planning-HOLIDAY-just-days-June-s-EU-referendum.html

    I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....

    Well there is little doubt that Corbyn doesn't really believe much in the EU.
    Bizarrely the MoS says he's going to do a TV debate with Boris where he'll be representing REMAIN! :open_mouth:
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    GIN1138 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    Why is Bristol still counting when the view was like three days ago? :open_mouth:
    Double time on Sunday?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn infuriates his own Shadow Cabinet by planning a HOLIDAY just days before June's EU referendum

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3579595/Jeremy-Corbyn-infuriates-Shadow-Cabinet-planning-HOLIDAY-just-days-June-s-EU-referendum.html

    I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....

    Well there is little doubt that Corbyn doesn't really believe much in the EU.
    Bizarrely the MoS says he's going to do a TV debate with Boris where he'll be representing REMAIN! :open_mouth:
    Makes sense, I'm not entirely convinced either of them are true believers in their stated position, it having more to do with party management, so they should be evenly balanced.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Gin, worth recalling Boris has, historically, been atrocious at debates, and they didn't harm Corbyn during the Labour leadership election [admittedly, the general UK electorate and the Labour three pounders are not one and the same].
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    1 more to Labour now Lab 12
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    viewcode said:

    nunu said:

    As soon as libdems distance themselves from tories they start making progress...

    That's not strictly true. I assume the uptick in LD performance in Scotland was due to a residual affinity to the Libs since the Clearances plus the post-Sindyref aestivation of SLab: there is a gap for a pro-Unionist anti-SNP vote and the LDs may be well placed to so expand in Scotland.

    But these factors are not necessarily true in, say, South Wales or the South-West of England.

    The antiLabour vote in South Wales is being filled by UKIP (OK, Plaid as well - Leanne taking Rhondda is like Corbyn taking Horsham), not LD. Similarly in the South-West of England, the antiCon vote is being filled by UKIP, not LD.


    Is it true that UKIP are the opposition to the Tories in the West Country?

    If we look at the PCC election in Devon and Cornwall, UKIP came fourth with 16.9% of the vote with Corbyns Labour in a strong second and gaining an increased majority in Exeter.

    http://m.exeterexpressandecho.co.uk/PCC-Elections-2016-Alison-Hernandez-wins-Devon/story-29240218-detail/story.html

    UKIP were a distant third (near equal with 4th place Labour) in Dorset.

    http://m.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/14476265.UPDATE__Martyn_Underhill_re_elected_as_Dorset_s_PCC/

    And a distant fourth in Avon and Somerset, behind an independent and both Labour and Tory.

    http://www.avonpccelection2016.org.uk/count-results

  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Plato_Says said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    Why is Bristol still counting when the view was like three days ago? :open_mouth:
    Double time on Sunday?
    #NiceLittleEarner
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gin, worth recalling Boris has, historically, been atrocious at debates, and they didn't harm Corbyn during the Labour leadership election [admittedly, the general UK electorate and the Labour three pounders are not one and the same].

    It could be real car crash TV...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn infuriates his own Shadow Cabinet by planning a HOLIDAY just days before June's EU referendum

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3579595/Jeremy-Corbyn-infuriates-Shadow-Cabinet-planning-HOLIDAY-just-days-June-s-EU-referendum.html

    I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....

    Well there is little doubt that Corbyn doesn't really believe much in the EU.
    Bizarrely the MoS says he's going to do a TV debate with Boris where he'll be representing REMAIN! :open_mouth:
    Is Corbyn planning to sabotage his own debate ?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The Tottenham choke continues. If Arsenal avoid defeat today I am 90 minutes from winning a very tidy sum.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gin, worth recalling Boris has, historically, been atrocious at debates, and they didn't harm Corbyn during the Labour leadership election [admittedly, the general UK electorate and the Labour three pounders are not one and the same].

    Corbyn comes over very well at debates, and sticks to a consistent line. I would back him against Boris.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2016
    MikeK said:


    3. Leave wins by any margin. Civil War breaks outwith even members coming to blows. Half the Tory party membership leave to form NEW TORIES. Cameron and Osborne resign after many top Tories refuse to serve under them.

    That sounds the most fun out of the three options! :smiley:

  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    MarkSenior said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    1 more to Labour now Lab 12
    Talking to yourself I see..........
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    nunu said:

    MarkSenior said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    1 more to Labour now Lab 12
    Talking to yourself I see..........
    I'm paying attention! I want to see if the Greens hold up in the face of Corbynmania.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    nunu said:

    MarkSenior said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    1 more to Labour now Lab 12
    Talking to yourself I see..........
    Speak for yourself. I'm interested in what's happening in Bristol.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    'The Lib Dems are delighted with the progress. Their 370 seats is six times that achieved by UKIP and not far from half the Tory total.'


    The Lib Dems gained 44 seats out of the 280 they lost in 2012.Down to one assembly member in London & overtaken by UKIP,almost wiped out in Wales with 0ne assembly member and again overtaken by UKIP and stood still in Scotland.

    How low do you want to set the bar ?

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Dr. Foxinsox, that's my thinking.

    If Corbyn beats Boris, the latter's leadership hopes would effectively end. Leading the way to victory is great. Leading the way over a cliff is not.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I am aware of what the Labour Party..or some of it ..stands for..similarly with the Cons..the UKIP are easy to read, so are the Greens ..but WTF do the LDs stand for..they are so woolly and vague,always clinging on to some policy the others have produced..and incessantly claiming the victim role...pathetic..
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SouthamObserver said:

    The Tottenham choke continues. If Arsenal avoid defeat today I am 90 minutes from winning a very tidy sum.

    Yes. I am on that one too.

    If Vardy can get two goals against Chelsea then he can pass Kane too. That is worth a very tidy sum (though the ew should pay off nicely too)
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    nunu said:

    MarkSenior said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    1 more to Labour now Lab 12
    Talking to yourself I see..........
    4 more to Lab Lab 16 now
  • Recidivist
    Recidivist Posts: 4,679
    ThreeQuidder said:

    I would expect better from PB than to fall into the fallacy of quoting absolute seat numbers as if they prove something.

    Well they show how much influence the party will have in local government. That is at the very least something. I'd have said it was quite important personally.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MarkSenior said:

    nunu said:

    MarkSenior said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Bristol 5 more 2 member wards declared now Lab 10 Con 8 LD 4 Green 3

    1 more to Labour now Lab 12
    Talking to yourself I see..........
    4 more to Lab Lab 16 now
    Not many UKIPers in WWC Bristol?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Excellent- I've just checked the election results and Cambridge becomes another viable place for me to come and return to live in- a NTT, a No Tory Town....a pleasant place where I know my neighbours are decent people.

    Alongside, Oxford and Norwich I can spend the days wandering the streets, smiling serenely, knowing there isn't a Tory in sight, and if there are, they are such shameful, wretched creatures that they keep their miserable views to themselves. Places where the Newsagents stock only Guardians. Bliss.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    rcs1000 said:

    runnymede said:

    We mustn't forget the Lib Dems' fantastic performances in Wales and London either.

    The libdems did shockingly in both. But add up all their votes, and compare them to 2012 (which was their highpoint last parliament), and they have improved markedly, and comfortably beaten ukip in terms of total votes.
    I think if you'd offered them this result six months ago, they'd have taken it.
    I accept that most LD activists think these elections were good for them. But to now be 5th in Wales, 5th in Scotland and 5th in London is not a good place to be in the 3 most important mainland poltical establishments outside the HoC. 44 more english councillors is a drop in the ocean, being circa 5% of the non-LD seats up for election. "Oh look we won 5% of what was on offer".... Gaining 5% of the available seats will take them decades to get back to the 5,000 they once had. At a time when the two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives are in a parlous state, the LDs should have done better.
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