On other news, now that the GOP race is over I'm going over the GE polls a bit, what I discovered is Trump looks a bit UKIPy, his support is almost evenly widespread, here are the latest state polls:
...
Trump can afford to lose 10 points in states where Romney won by 60+% in 2012 as long as he keeps Republicans in swing states on his side plus his democrat switchers and he can win even if he loses the popular vote to Hillary, I estimate that the cutoff point is losing to Hillary by 4-5 points nationally and Trump would still be elected President.
I really don't understand how a result like Clinton 49-44 Trump can lead to a Trump win. Those safe GOP states aren't just irrelevant losses - some of them like Arizona have a meaningful number of electoral votes. My totally indicative guess is that 49-44 would cause a best-case result like Trump = Romney + Florida + Ohio - North Carolina. 238 electoral votes, not very close to a win. A harsher guess would be Romney - NC - Arizona, for 180 EVs.
Or minus Georgia and Utah too for 158
I didn't want to be too harsh! If things go really badly for Trump, he could lose five southern states that Romney won. His voters there (and elsewhere) probably voted Republican anyway, but his presence on the ticket would energise racial/ethnic minorities and align them with some defectors from the higher-income, churchgoing wing of the southern Republican party. I think he will end up winning Utah as his performance there is more harbinger than promise; he really ought to be leading in at least one poll in a state which John McCain won by 28 points.
Bristol Labour take overall control currently Lab 37 Con 12 LDem 7 Green 7 3 wards 7 seats to go
Southville 2 Greens Lab 37 Con 12 Green 9 LDem 7
Clifton Down 2 Greens Westbury On Trym to come should be 3 X Con Lab 37 Con 12 Green 11 LDem 7
Westbury On Trym surprisingly 2 Con 1 Lib Dem
Final Figures Lab 37 plus 7 Con 14 minus 2 Green 11 minus 3 LDem 8 minus 1 UKIP 0 minus 1
Greens will be very disappointed to be going backwards Lib Dems happy to be only down 1 where the boundary changes were not kind to them . They picked up 5 seats in split wards Labour will be happy to just get an overall majority
On other news, now that the GOP race is over I'm going over the GE polls a bit, what I discovered is Trump looks a bit UKIPy, his support is almost evenly widespread, here are the latest state polls:
...
Trump can afford to lose 10 points in states where Romney won by 60+% in 2012 as long as he keeps Republicans in swing states on his side plus his democrat switchers and he can win even if he loses the popular vote to Hillary, I estimate that the cutoff point is losing to Hillary by 4-5 points nationally and Trump would still be elected President.
I really don't understand how a result like Clinton 49-44 Trump can lead to a Trump win. Those safe GOP states aren't just irrelevant losses - some of them like Arizona have a meaningful number of electoral votes. My totally indicative guess is that 49-44 would cause a best-case result like Trump = Romney + Florida + Ohio - North Carolina. 238 electoral votes, not very close to a win. A harsher guess would be Romney - NC - Arizona, for 180 EVs.
Or minus Georgia and Utah too for 158
I didn't want to be too harsh! If things go really badly for Trump, he could lose five southern states that Romney won. His voters there (and elsewhere) probably voted Republican anyway, but his presence on the ticket would energise racial/ethnic minorities and align them with some defectors from the higher-income, churchgoing wing of the southern Republican party. I think he will end up winning Utah as his performance there is more harbinger than promise; he really ought to be leading in at least one poll in a state which John McCain won by 28 points.
Of course it is a worst case scenario but as you say the polls suggest a worst case scenario is possible in which case Trump really would be Goldwater 2, doing worse even than Dole in 1996 and McCain in 2008. As for Utah he is brash, arrogant and a womaniser, almost exactly the type of candidate designed to turn off Mormons in droves
I don't think it the right time of year to head to Venezuela....
Well there is little doubt that Corbyn doesn't really believe much in the EU.
Pshaw - "nearly a week at the end of May" is not "just days" before the referendum. Politicians need a short break now and then like anyone else - the summer break is the the dodge one.
Arizona was one of Trump's strongest states, no chance of Trump not winning that one, by a clear margin. Same with the Southern States.
Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.
Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.
The final result in Bristol is: Lab 37, Con 14, G 11, LD 8
Net Change: Lab +7, Con -2, G -3, LD -1, UKIP -1
And updating the BBC website for Bristol should give a final English council net result of:
Lab -16, Con -48, LD +43, UKIP +25, Green -3
So when everyone was laughing at Corbyn saying Labour will not lose any seats, he was more or less right. Interesting...
And had the results been announced in reverse order, there would have been the gain of Bristol first followed by endless media obsession over the result in London, until the media woke up to the Scotland result three days in.
Mind it wouldn't have stopped the likes of Emma Reynolds from talking down their party's achievements, because those scripts were pre-written.
Arizona was one of Trump's strongest states, no chance of Trump not winning that one, by a clear margin. Same with the Southern States.
Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.
Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.
Latest Arizona poll from Behaviour Research in April - Clinton 42 Trump 35
Latest Georgia poll from Landmark Rosetta Stone yesterday - Clinton 41 Trump 42
Latest New Jersey poll from Rutgers in April - Clinton 50 Trump 36
Latest Indiana poll from NBC in Indiana - Clinton 41 Trump 47 (Romney won Indiana by 10% in 2012)
Latest Florida poll from Associated Inds in April - Clinton 49 Trump 36
Arizona was one of Trump's strongest states, no chance of Trump not winning that one, by a clear margin. Same with the Southern States.
Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.
Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.
I think equating strength in the primary with strength in the general is a sure fire way to lose money. Let's not forget, Wyoming was one of Obama's strongest states in 2008, and was - fair to say - not in contest in November of that year.
Arizona is a state where I would worry for Donald.
About 30% of the population is hispanic, and largely of Mexican heritage. Donald can row back on a lot of things, but his comments about Mexicans could well haunt him in places like Arizona.
There's another thing: McCain is running behind his challenger in Arizona. That suggests the state is naturally trending Democrat.
I think Trump is competitive in a whole bunch of places where Romney was not. But Arizona is his weak flank.
Arizona was one of Trump's strongest states, no chance of Trump not winning that one, by a clear margin. Same with the Southern States.
Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.
Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.
Trump did better than Arizona in Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island. He's not going to win those states, though.
He does really well among one demographic which already votes Republican quite strongly. To believe in the nerdish pleasures of fantasy realignments, you have to believe in a very large number of white working-class men who voted Obama twice and will now choose a birther. No. Trump is on track to lose, not to lose particularly badly but rather in line with recent GOP losses, and he needs a national swing among all demographic groups in order to win.
He will get about 12.5 million votes in the primaries. However, you need about 60 million votes to have a chance of winning; bridging the gap is not automatic. One logical corollary of the unusual length of the primary contest is that he is the least-popular Republican nominee for some time; others like McCain, Romney, etc. had sewn it up by March. He now needs to consolidate Republicans after his primary more effectively than Hillary consolidates Democrats after hers, so that he doesn't lose states like... Utah.
The other thing to bear in mind is how sharply the US economy has slowed, with growth in the last two quarters anemic. Forward indicators show there won't be a sufficiently sharp enough pick up in time for the election, and that the slow grind will likely continue into the summer and fall. You also have to factor in that people experience the slowdown after the fact, the old canard about unemployment being a lagging indicator, so this should be something deeply influencing voters as they go to the polls. Doesn't bode well for the Democrats.
McCain is an odd one, a lot of hardcore Republicans despise him. From what I have seen he will likely lose to his primary challenger Kelli Ward. Arizona is still the state of Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jan Brewer, I don't see that changing any time soon.
A reasonable chance Paul Ryan might be Cantored by Paul Nehlen.
The other thing to bear in mind is how sharply the US economy has slowed, with growth in the last two quarters anemic. Forward indicators show there won't be a sufficiently sharp enough pick up in time for the election, and that the slow grind will likely continue into the summer and fall. You also have to factor in that people experience the slowdown after the fact, the old canard about unemployment being a lagging indicator, so this should be something deeply influencing voters as they go to the polls. Doesn't bode well for the Democrats.
The other thing to bear in mind is how sharply the US economy has slowed, with growth in the last two quarters anemic. Forward indicators show there won't be a sufficiently sharp enough pick up in time for the election, and that the slow grind will likely continue into the summer and fall. You also have to factor in that people experience the slowdown after the fact, the old canard about unemployment being a lagging indicator, so this should be something deeply influencing voters as they go to the polls. Doesn't bode well for the Democrats.
Considering Obama won re-election with an unemployment rate of 7.9% and it is now 5% I would not count on that!
An economic model like this relies on candidates being basically the same kind of rational vote-maximiser every year. Essentially, Obama should not be too different to Kerry or Gore in how they try to do politics, but the economic conditions change a bit.
No previous Republican or Democrat has gone out of their way to insult veterans, the disabled, to mock women, or to demonise the fastest-growing ethnic group in the electorate, which happens to be significant in several swing states.
The final result in Bristol is: Lab 37, Con 14, G 11, LD 8
Net Change: Lab +7, Con -2, G -3, LD -1, UKIP -1
And updating the BBC website for Bristol should give a final English council net result of:
Lab -16, Con -48, LD +43, UKIP +25, Green -3
Do you have a link to the detailed ward results for Bristol? Thanks in advance.
No, I'm afraid not. They really seem quite inept don't they, having announced all the results live on a webcast but as yet leaving no record on their website to confirm that you hadn't dreamt it all.
The other thing to bear in mind is how sharply the US economy has slowed, with growth in the last two quarters anemic. Forward indicators show there won't be a sufficiently sharp enough pick up in time for the election, and that the slow grind will likely continue into the summer and fall. You also have to factor in that people experience the slowdown after the fact, the old canard about unemployment being a lagging indicator, so this should be something deeply influencing voters as they go to the polls. Doesn't bode well for the Democrats.
Considering Obama won re-election with an unemployment rate of 7.9% and it is now 5% I would not count on that!
An economic model like this relies on candidates being basically the same kind of rational vote-maximiser every year. Essentially, Obama should not be too different to Kerry or Gore in how they try to do politics, but the economic conditions change a bit.
No previous Republican or Democrat has gone out of their way to insult veterans, the disabled, to mock women, or to demonise the fastest-growing ethnic group in the electorate, which happens to be significant in several swing states.
Indeed, even if unemployment was 10%, highly unlikely, Trump's victory would not be guaranteed
Comments
If things go really badly for Trump, he could lose five southern states that Romney won. His voters there (and elsewhere) probably voted Republican anyway, but his presence on the ticket would energise racial/ethnic minorities and align them with some defectors from the higher-income, churchgoing wing of the southern Republican party. I think he will end up winning Utah as his performance there is more harbinger than promise; he really ought to be leading in at least one poll in a state which John McCain won by 28 points.
Final Figures
Lab 37 plus 7
Con 14 minus 2
Green 11 minus 3
LDem 8 minus 1
UKIP 0 minus 1
Greens will be very disappointed to be going backwards
Lib Dems happy to be only down 1 where the boundary changes were not kind to them . They picked up 5 seats in split wards
Labour will be happy to just get an overall majority
Net Change: Lab +7, Con -2, G -3, LD -1, UKIP -1
And updating the BBC website for Bristol should give a final English council net result of:
Lab -16, Con -48, LD +43, UKIP +25, Green -3
Interesting to see in the Monmouth NJ poll Trump was on 70%, taken whilst Cruz and Kasich were still in the race. Would love to see how close Trump is to Clinton there, especially as PPP in WV and NBC in IN have Trump now starting to outperform Romney's margins in 2012.
Trump's strengths are certainly in areas of the country where he needs to outperform in order to win, like Florida and the Mid-Atlantic/Rust Belt, piling up votes in the Plains and Mountain West is pointless.
Mind it wouldn't have stopped the likes of Emma Reynolds from talking down their party's achievements, because those scripts were pre-written.
Latest Georgia poll from Landmark Rosetta Stone yesterday - Clinton 41 Trump 42
Latest New Jersey poll from Rutgers in April - Clinton 50 Trump 36
Latest Indiana poll from NBC in Indiana - Clinton 41 Trump 47 (Romney won Indiana by 10% in 2012)
Latest Florida poll from Associated Inds in April - Clinton 49 Trump 36
So signs are not good for him so far!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016
Arizona is a state where I would worry for Donald.
About 30% of the population is hispanic, and largely of Mexican heritage. Donald can row back on a lot of things, but his comments about Mexicans could well haunt him in places like Arizona.
There's another thing: McCain is running behind his challenger in Arizona. That suggests the state is naturally trending Democrat.
I think Trump is competitive in a whole bunch of places where Romney was not. But Arizona is his weak flank.
He does really well among one demographic which already votes Republican quite strongly. To believe in the nerdish pleasures of fantasy realignments, you have to believe in a very large number of white working-class men who voted Obama twice and will now choose a birther. No. Trump is on track to lose, not to lose particularly badly but rather in line with recent GOP losses, and he needs a national swing among all demographic groups in order to win.
He will get about 12.5 million votes in the primaries. However, you need about 60 million votes to have a chance of winning; bridging the gap is not automatic. One logical corollary of the unusual length of the primary contest is that he is the least-popular Republican nominee for some time; others like McCain, Romney, etc. had sewn it up by March. He now needs to consolidate Republicans after his primary more effectively than Hillary consolidates Democrats after hers, so that he doesn't lose states like... Utah.
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2016/index2.htm
A reasonable chance Paul Ryan might be Cantored by Paul Nehlen.
No previous Republican or Democrat has gone out of their way to insult veterans, the disabled, to mock women, or to demonise the fastest-growing ethnic group in the electorate, which happens to be significant in several swing states.
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