politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Mayor, the pro-IN Mayor’s Dad and the LAB approach to E

System · April 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Mayor, the pro-IN Mayor’s Dad and the LAB approach to EURef

“It’s up to you in the Labour Party to save us.” I was too polite to reply: “From your son, you mean?”, for this was Stanley Johnson, the charming father of boorish Boris, the Brexiteer.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney · April 2016

First ..... again!

peter_from_putney · April 2016

Second, like Kasich in Rhode Island.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

Second, like Spurs.

BoJo will stand for leader of the Tories - and lose. He will then defect to UKIP, whose leader (whose name escapes me just now) will then stand down in his favour.

BoJo will be LotO after the next GE. Labour are an idea (class-based politics) whose time has gone. Ask Frank Field.

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?

Sean_F · April 2016

I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.

MikeSmithson · April 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?

The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

Sean_F said:
I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.

Especially if they listen to you, eh?

JackW · April 2016

Gove's Albania model "weird" says ..... Albania Prime Minister ....

Where's Enver Hoxha when you need him? ....

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4738733.ece

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

Boris Johnson is having a very bad referendum campaign. It is turning into a destroyer of reputations in the Conservative party on both sides of the vote.

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

No one can doubt the passion on the Leave side. One can doubt the judgement:

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/724616860319244289

PeterC · April 2016

Except - as I posted last night - the notion that the EU is fantastic for young people is complete tripe. A quick review of youth enemployment in the eurozone will inform you as to why.

Indigo · April 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:
BoJo will stand for leader of the Tories - and lose. He will then defect to UKIP, whose leader (whose name escapes me just now) will then stand down in his favour.

Cant see it. LotO is a hard work job. Lots of hassle, precious little thanks and no power. I think Bojo is more likely to quietly slink off to an editorship of a national newspaper, or ease into semi retirement on the speaking circuit and do a bit of TV on the side if he doesn't get any joy this time around.

Innocent_Abroad said:

BoJo will be LotO after the next GE. Labour are an idea (class-based politics) whose time has gone. Ask Frank Field.

Agreed. But several million of their voters haven't noticed yet, so they are going to limp on embarrassing themselves for another decade or two.

Labour should used this period of weakish tory government, and common cause with the kippers and the nationalists to push a PR agenda. Farage would be for to, so would the SNP, find a dozen disillusioned Tories and Bob is your mother's brother. I know they are not big fans of electoral reform, but they need to wake up and smell the coffee, its the only way the left get near power again this generation, by fragmenting politics into half a dozen little parties and doing deals.

Indigo · April 2016

Sean_F said:
I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.

It is a slightly odd argument. It implies that people think there is a different "good" for their country's future depending on whether or not their children are taken into account. If anything the expectation is that a Leave would be a short/medium term loss for a long term gain, so the children should be the ones benefiting from a Leave while the parents absorb the pain (such as it might be) in the near term.

Indigo · April 2016

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.

And yet the kipper inclined voters won the last Euro elections, which suggests some issues get them off the sofa to vote.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
Boris Johnson is having a very bad referendum campaign. It is turning into a destroyer of reputations in the Conservative party on both sides of the vote.

But, Gove, May, Raab, Patel and Leadsom may all walk out with their reputations enhanced.

SouthamObserver · April 2016

Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

Sean_F said:
I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.

It's pretty obvious to me that both BSE and HMG are going to very heavily threaten pensions, in the event of Leave vote, post 5th May.

Indigo · April 2016

All going smoothly in the Osborne household

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/724671835669934080

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

Indigo said:

Innocent_Abroad said:
BoJo will stand for leader of the Tories - and lose. He will then defect to UKIP, whose leader (whose name escapes me just now) will then stand down in his favour.
Cant see it. LotO is a hard work job. Lots of hassle, precious little thanks and no power. I think Bojo is more likely to quietly slink off to an editorship of a national newspaper, or ease into semi retirement on the speaking circuit and do a bit of TV on the side if he doesn't get any joy this time around.
Innocent_Abroad said:

BoJo will be LotO after the next GE. Labour are an idea (class-based politics) whose time has gone. Ask Frank Field.
Agreed. But several million of their voters haven't noticed yet, so they are going to limp on embarrassing themselves for another decade or two.

Labour should used this period of weakish tory government, and common cause with the kippers and the nationalists to push a PR agenda. Farage would be for to, so would the SNP, find a dozen disillusioned Tories and Bob is your mother's brother. I know they are not big fans of electoral reform, but they need to wake up and smell the coffee, its the only way the left get near power again this generation, by fragmenting politics into half a dozen little parties and doing deals.

There's a lot in what you say. I'd forgotten BoJo's idleness. However, you need to ask yourself if Labour's activists actually want power (or, more accurately) office, given the compromises on one's principles it entails.

foxinsoxuk · April 2016

Fpt:

viewcode said:

foxinsoxuk said:

david_herdson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Philip_Thompson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/724697602659373057
The Medical Royal Colleges are banned by their charters from acting as Trade Unions. They cannot advocate striking.
Should be the same for the so-called British Medical Association. Maybe they should rename themselves National Union for Doctors instead of euphemistically implying they care about Medicine rather than be a Trade Union.
The BMA is a trade union but has other roles too. It is paid for by voluntary membership fees.
Aren't all trade unions paid for by voluntary membership fees?

The fact that the BMA has other roles is not to its credit. Trade unions shouldn't be acting beyond their competence, nor should regulatory bodies (or the like) be acting as unions. If medical staff need a union - and they do - then it should be dedicated to that task and should avoid potential conflicts of interest, both for itself and its members.
The BMA has no regulatory functions, its other roles are educational. Regulation is primarily the GMC, with the Royal Colleges in advisory roles on educational and clinical governance matters. Deaneries control Junior doctor employment and are answerable directly to the Department of Health.

Many doctors confuse the roles, so I am not surprised that outsiders do too.
I do have a question and I wonder if you can help me. Many US surgeons advertise themselves as "board certified" and have to pass tests periodically to keep their certification. I think the situation in UK is different - a surgeon does his initial training (at a medical school or university) then does jobs of gradually rising responsibility until he retires: log books may be kept but they are voluntary, not compulsory nor inspected. Similarly for doctors.

So my questions are:
* Is my understanding regarding surgeons correct?
* Is my understanding regarding doctors correct?
* What qualifications does a person have to have to call himself a) a surgeon, b) a doctor, c) a physician?

The UK (and EU) equivalent of board certified is Consultant status. This requires a Certificate of Completion of Training (CCT) issued by the GMC. These can be in a number of different specialities, and General Practice. It takes 3-8 years post Foundation programme. There is a similar system of revalidation to ensure people stay up to date. There is a parallel system (CESR) that allows equivalent training to be recognised outside formal training posts, but it is even more arduous.

Sean_F · April 2016

Indigo said:

Sean_F said:
I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.
It is a slightly odd argument. It implies that people think there is a different "good" for their country's future depending on whether or not their children are taken into account. If anything the expectation is that a Leave would be a short/medium term loss for a long term gain, so the children should be the ones benefiting from a Leave while the parents absorb the pain (such as it might be) in the near term.

If say, you're 65, retired, middle income, and voting Leave, it's hard to see what personal advantage you gain, so presumably such voters are voting in what they see as the best interests of the country and their descendants.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

On topic, I think Don is right on this: Boris is acting as if he's still writing his 1990s columns for The Telegraph as ye olde Brussels-bashing correspondent of yore.

He's not acting as a putative PM in waiting.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:
Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.

Will they?

Is the EU as popular amongst ordinary Labour party members as the party establishment?

Indigo · April 2016

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

Sean_F said:
I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.
It is a slightly odd argument. It implies that people think there is a different "good" for their country's future depending on whether or not their children are taken into account. If anything the expectation is that a Leave would be a short/medium term loss for a long term gain, so the children should be the ones benefiting from a Leave while the parents absorb the pain (such as it might be) in the near term.
If say, you're 65, retired, middle income, and voting Leave, it's hard to see what personal advantage you gain, so presumably such voters are voting in what they see as the best interests of the country and their descendants.

Agreed. Even if you are 45 working with a growing family and voting Leave, the rough bit, should it happen, is going to be the first few years while your kids are still at home, and you are taking the hit, most forecasters expect things to be either better or no different in a decade when you kids will be starting to make their own way in the world.

Sean_F · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:
Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.
Will they?

Is the EU as popular amongst ordinary Labour party members as the party establishment?

No it isn't. But, it looks like 70-75% of those who vote will vote Remain.

david_herdson · April 2016

Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.

PeterC · April 2016

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

Sean_F said:
I expect that lots of 55+ voters are thinking of their childrens' and grandchildrens' future - and concluding it would be best to vote Leave.
It is a slightly odd argument. It implies that people think there is a different "good" for their country's future depending on whether or not their children are taken into account. If anything the expectation is that a Leave would be a short/medium term loss for a long term gain, so the children should be the ones benefiting from a Leave while the parents absorb the pain (such as it might be) in the near term.
If say, you're 65, retired, middle income, and voting Leave, it's hard to see what personal advantage you gain, so presumably such voters are voting in what they see as the best interests of the country and their descendants.

Yes. You point out the patronising nature of the "generational" appeal.

old_labour · April 2016

Mirror readers seem underwhelmed by Seema Malhotra's article.
"Online gaming with thousands across the world"?
JC should let the Tories fight this out among themselves.
Strange that no photo of Jeremy and Obama has been released. I am assuming that Corbyn did not want one.

david_herdson · April 2016

Indigo said:

Innocent_Abroad said:
BoJo will stand for leader of the Tories - and lose. He will then defect to UKIP, whose leader (whose name escapes me just now) will then stand down in his favour.
Cant see it. LotO is a hard work job. Lots of hassle, precious little thanks and no power. I think Bojo is more likely to quietly slink off to an editorship of a national newspaper, or ease into semi retirement on the speaking circuit and do a bit of TV on the side if he doesn't get any joy this time around.
Innocent_Abroad said:

BoJo will be LotO after the next GE. Labour are an idea (class-based politics) whose time has gone. Ask Frank Field.
Agreed. But several million of their voters haven't noticed yet, so they are going to limp on embarrassing themselves for another decade or two.

Labour should used this period of weakish tory government, and common cause with the kippers and the nationalists to push a PR agenda. Farage would be for to, so would the SNP, find a dozen disillusioned Tories and Bob is your mother's brother. I know they are not big fans of electoral reform, but they need to wake up and smell the coffee, its the only way the left get near power again this generation, by fragmenting politics into half a dozen little parties and doing deals.

Isn't it just as likely that PR would fracture Labour's vote and drive up that of UKIP and the Greens?

During the AV referendum, more than half Labour MPs supported 'No' for the very reason that they believed that FPTP was the best bet for power. If a majority wouldn't even back AV, how on earth is Corbyn supposed to get unanimity on moving to PR?

Indigo · April 2016

david_herdson said:
On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

Quite. I had my regular phone (okay, Skype) with Mrs Indigo (Snr) last night, she is rapidly getting pissed off with the level of condescension in the correspondence she is receiving from Remain (to be fair she doesn't have anything from Leave yet). After she got her copy of the £9m mail shot, I received an email titled "patronising" which contained the opening paragraph

"I think that comes out of the stable that thinks that anyone over 60 hasn’t got a brain cell left. I reckon an awful lot of Grans could give their student grandchildren a run for their money on a vast number of topics particularly “To Brexit or not to Brexit”"

foxinsoxuk · April 2016

I am sure that folk will enjoy this voodoo poll:

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/apr/25/junior-doctors-over-half-could-quit-nhs-england-over-hunt-contract?CMP=share_btn_fb

Off to work shortly, and it looks a busy day.

I am interested to see that the public support for the strike is now at 57% compared to 44% in January. To me it looks like an unpopular split government is making strange allies.

Luckyguy1983 · April 2016

There must have been polling overnight then I see. We wouldn't be concluding that Obama has 'busted' anyone on the basis of no polling would we?

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

Mr Field, the MP for Birkenhead and a former welfare minister, is expected to warn in a speech that the referendum could be "the second-longest suicide note in Labour's history" - behind the manifesto that preceded its 1983 general election drubbing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36135768

MarqueeMark · April 2016

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.

In a general election yes. When they see a Labour, a Tory-LibDem Coalition, then a Tory Government each do nothing about immigration, their choice for Westminster is the single-seat UKIP or the extreme right. Those who won't vote in a general election because "they're all the same" are not uncommon views when you are out canvassing. But this Referendum is not a vote about the party of Government, it is about the system of Government.

These previously disconnected with democracy who will actually vote in the Referendum doubtless number less than a million. The pollsters will be down-weighting them to next to nothing. But in a close race - and this is a close race - they could yet make the difference.

One thing is sure. Remain have made no case to get these folk to vote for them. Leave, on the other hand, might lure out a section of the Can't Be Arsed Party for once. If they want to poke the system in the eye.

'Ave a larf. Vote Leave....

Indigo · April 2016

david_herdson said:

Isn't it just as likely that PR would fracture Labour's vote and drive up that of UKIP and the Greens?

During the AV referendum, more than half Labour MPs supported 'No' for the very reason that they believed that FPTP was the best bet for power. If a majority wouldn't even back AV, how on earth is Corbyn supposed to get unanimity on moving to PR?

Thing is, if Labour feel they are likely to spend the next 20 year not quite getting enough seats in parliament to get into office, there isn't much kudos in being a heroic failure. PR would fracture Labour's vote, but it would also fracture the Tories vote. The big tent parties would have no reason to tolerate their more colourful members. Most people expect a fairly rapid move to probably five parties in the event of PR (Far Left/Green, Old Labour/SDP, Blairite/Cleggite/Cameroon, Hannanite Tories, Kippers), and permanent coalitions, and case-by-case support agreements. Not my idea of fun, but it means the left get some of their policies enacted, rather than none if they sit in heroic but impotent opposition.

SandyRentool · April 2016

As you know, I'm a Labour Leaver. If JC had stuck by his long held position and campaigned for Leave we would have walked it - but the PLP would have been foaming at the mouth. I guess keeping the leadership is more important to him than some of us realise.

I expect Remain to win - and then we have to follow the advice of JC and Varoufakis and try and sort out the EU from within.

The consolation for me is that several prominent Tories are going to come out of this as damaged goods, and I expect the EU argument to rumble on and be the big divide in their leadership election. Hopefully this will result in them electing someone who the membership love but the voters can't stand. Or Priti Patel.

CD13 · April 2016

My wife made me watch 'Marcella' last night on ITV and I tried to work out where it was set. At first, it resembled a planet called Diversity, and then I thought ...Brighton, before finally realising it was London.

I quite liked it, but 'Life on Mars' it isn't. There seemed to be few white heterosexual males anymore in the upper ranks of the Police, or in the programme at all. They were restricted to a feral underclass or to have mental health issues. I haven't been to London for a few months so it might have changed a lot since 2015.

And the women dressed as dowdily as possible.

Before anyone complains, I've never denied being shallow. And I always thought the Polish milkmaids should have beaten Conchita Wurst.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.
In a general election yes. When they see a Labour, a Tory-LibDem Coalition, then a Tory Government each do nothing about immigration, their choice for Westminster is the single-seat UKIP or the extreme right. Those who won't vote in a general election because "they're all the same" are not uncommon views when you are out canvassing. But this Referendum is not a vote about the party of Government, it is about the system of Government.

These previously disconnected with democracy who will actually vote in the Referendum doubtless number less than a million. The pollsters will be down-weighting them to next to nothing. But in a close race - and this is a close race - they could yet make the difference.

One thing is sure. Remain have made no case to get these folk to vote for them. Leave, on the other hand, might lure out a section of the Can't Be Arsed Party for once. If they want to poke the system in the eye.

'Ave a larf. Vote Leave....

There have been "all the same" responses to canvassers since the1970s to my knowledge. They are the people who don't vote.

Where referenda differ is that none of us can be guided by partisan loyalty.

Indigo · April 2016

SandyRentool said:
The consolation for me is that several prominent Tories are going to come out of this as damaged goods, and I expect the EU argument to rumble on and be the big divide in their leadership election. Hopefully this will result in them electing someone who the membership love but the voters can't stand. Or Priti Patel.

If Cam goes this year or early next year the calculations might be a bit different. Someone like Gove is not the obvious choice for most voters, but most of that is image. If he took over the hot seat next year and spent three years delivering well thought out, competent, coherent, if rather unexciting government, most voters would take that very much into consideration. I would expect a track record for three years of solid competence would trump almost any amount of noise from pissed off teachers.

runnymede · April 2016

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.

Agreed. The article is a juvenile and incoherent mess

Sean_F · April 2016

Indigo said:

david_herdson said:
On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".
Quite. I had my regular phone (okay, Skype) with Mrs Indigo (Snr) last night, she is rapidly getting pissed off with the level of condescension in the correspondence she is receiving from Remain (to be fair she doesn't have anything from Leave yet). After she got her copy of the £9m mail shot, I received an email titled "patronising" which contained the opening paragraph
"I think that comes out of the stable that thinks that anyone over 60 hasn’t got a brain cell left. I reckon an awful lot of Grans could give their student grandchildren a run for their money on a vast number of topics particularly “To Brexit or not to Brexit”"

Overall, I expect people aged 55+ plus take a closer interest in public affairs than people aged 18-34. Not only do they have a higher turnout, they tend to run local political parties, clubs and societies, local councils etc. Someone who scarcely ever votes, and phones his grandmother to urge her to vote Remain is likely to be out-argued quite quickly.

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.

On the basis of 2/3 for REMAIN, this still has 1/3 of Labour voters, mainly older ones, disconnected from the party. These are what Frank Field is concerned with.

blueburn · April 2016

The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.

GeoffM · April 2016

runnymede said:

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.
Agreed. The article is a juvenile and incoherent mess

Thanks for reading it for all of us. I stopped at "boorish".
At that point is was clear that the article wasn't going to add anything constructive or intellectually challenging to the debate.

Plato_Says · April 2016

SouthamObserver said:
Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.

IIRC the Electoral Commission did a lot of targetted advertising to get younger voters registered - I certainly saw it all over Twitter and on the TV. They mentioned getting a good response overall.

DavidL · April 2016

I was involved in a debate last night about Brexit. It would be fair to say that Boris' s antics did not help my position. Pretty much everyone in the room other than me was for remain but it would be fair to say that did not mean there was any enthusiasm for the EU. There was a consensus that it is an arthritic bureaucratic ineffective body which had failed it's people, the refugees and our near neighbours. Plus points were few but included employment rights and human rights (tough crowd for me).

The consensus, me apart, was that the EU needed to be seriously reformed but it was better to attempt this from the inside. It was acknowledged we have been trying to do this since at least 1992 without success.

Based on this relatively modest sample it seems to me this is the way most Labour voters will see it. There is no love or admiration for the EU but there is a view that it is better in than out.

blackburn63 · April 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.
In a general election yes. When they see a Labour, a Tory-LibDem Coalition, then a Tory Government each do nothing about immigration, their choice for Westminster is the single-seat UKIP or the extreme right. Those who won't vote in a general election because "they're all the same" are not uncommon views when you are out canvassing. But this Referendum is not a vote about the party of Government, it is about the system of Government.

These previously disconnected with democracy who will actually vote in the Referendum doubtless number less than a million. The pollsters will be down-weighting them to next to nothing. But in a close race - and this is a close race - they could yet make the difference.

One thing is sure. Remain have made no case to get these folk to vote for them. Leave, on the other hand, might lure out a section of the Can't Be Arsed Party for once. If they want to poke the system in the eye.

'Ave a larf. Vote Leave....
There have been "all the same" responses to canvassers since the1970s to my knowledge. They are the people who don't vote.

Where referenda differ is that none of us can be guided by partisan loyalty.

None of us? I wrongly assumed you read other people's posts on here

Casino_Royale · April 2016

Sean_F said:

Indigo said:

david_herdson said:
On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".
Quite. I had my regular phone (okay, Skype) with Mrs Indigo (Snr) last night, she is rapidly getting pissed off with the level of condescension in the correspondence she is receiving from Remain (to be fair she doesn't have anything from Leave yet). After she got her copy of the £9m mail shot, I received an email titled "patronising" which contained the opening paragraph
"I think that comes out of the stable that thinks that anyone over 60 hasn’t got a brain cell left. I reckon an awful lot of Grans could give their student grandchildren a run for their money on a vast number of topics particularly “To Brexit or not to Brexit”"

Overall, I expect people aged 55+ plus take a closer interest in public affairs than people aged 18-34. Not only do they have a higher turnout, they tend to run local political parties, clubs and societies, local councils etc. Someone who scarcely ever votes, and phones his grandmother to urge her to vote Remain is likely to be out-argued quite quickly.

I actually took heed of the "phone a Gran" campaign and phoned my mother, who is also a grandmother.

It was a success: she has now agreed to deliver a batch of Vote Leave leaflets.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:
Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.
Will they?

Is the EU as popular amongst ordinary Labour party members as the party establishment?
No it isn't. But, it looks like 70-75% of those who vote will vote Remain.

Middle-class public-sector and urban Labour voters in cities like Bristol, Manchester, and London, yes.

I'm not so sure about old WWC Labour voters in the northeast and northwest.

Indigo · April 2016

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.

Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"

SandyRentool · April 2016

'Alan Johnson will tell union members that EU membership is "vital" for workers' rights.'

I thought that was what union members voted Labour for. Oh well, might as well vote Tory as long as we stay in the EU.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.
In a general election yes. When they see a Labour, a Tory-LibDem Coalition, then a Tory Government each do nothing about immigration, their choice for Westminster is the single-seat UKIP or the extreme right. Those who won't vote in a general election because "they're all the same" are not uncommon views when you are out canvassing. But this Referendum is not a vote about the party of Government, it is about the system of Government.

These previously disconnected with democracy who will actually vote in the Referendum doubtless number less than a million. The pollsters will be down-weighting them to next to nothing. But in a close race - and this is a close race - they could yet make the difference.

One thing is sure. Remain have made no case to get these folk to vote for them. Leave, on the other hand, might lure out a section of the Can't Be Arsed Party for once. If they want to poke the system in the eye.

'Ave a larf. Vote Leave....
There have been "all the same" responses to canvassers since the1970s to my knowledge. They are the people who don't vote.

Where referenda differ is that none of us can be guided by partisan loyalty.

None of us? I wrongly assumed you read other people's posts on here

Mea culpa

I forgot about the Liberal Democrats and that mob led by that geezer whose name escapes me...

Plato_Says · April 2016

That deserves a 5* review.

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.

blackburn63 · April 2016

Another anti Brexit thread header but ho hum. A labour supporter doesn't like Boris, hardly news.

Incidentally somebody below has once again predicted Boris leading UKIP after the referendum, as this is a betting site I'm very happy to lay that and invite any backer to name their price.

Delighted to read Frank Field talking about the EU on the BBC website earlier, he confirms what I've been saying for weeks. Still very much all to play for.

Plato_Says · April 2016

Obama was having his taken with Dawn Butler

old_labour said:
Mirror readers seem underwhelmed by Seema Malhotra's article.
"Online gaming with thousands across the world"?
JC should let the Tories fight this out among themselves.
Strange that no photo of Jeremy and Obama has been released. I am assuming that Corbyn did not want one.

Indigo · April 2016

Plato_Says said:

SouthamObserver said:
Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.
IIRC the Electoral Commission did a lot of targetted advertising to get younger voters registered - I certainly saw it all over Twitter and on the TV. They mentioned getting a good response overall.

Clicking "Register" and filling in a form online is one thing.

Getting off them off their arses, or out of the pub, and down to the local school to vote might be asking a bit much though

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"

Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.

blackburn63 · April 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:

blackburn63 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeSmithson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:
Mr Brind, what about the Labour voters concerned about immigration? Is the party just going to drive them away?
The voters most concerned about immigration are in the socio-economic groups which are least likely to vote.
In a general election yes. When they see a Labour, a Tory-LibDem Coalition, then a Tory Government each do nothing about immigration, their choice for Westminster is the single-seat UKIP or the extreme right. Those who won't vote in a general election because "they're all the same" are not uncommon views when you are out canvassing. But this Referendum is not a vote about the party of Government, it is about the system of Government.

These previously disconnected with democracy who will actually vote in the Referendum doubtless number less than a million. The pollsters will be down-weighting them to next to nothing. But in a close race - and this is a close race - they could yet make the difference.

One thing is sure. Remain have made no case to get these folk to vote for them. Leave, on the other hand, might lure out a section of the Can't Be Arsed Party for once. If they want to poke the system in the eye.

'Ave a larf. Vote Leave....
There have been "all the same" responses to canvassers since the1970s to my knowledge. They are the people who don't vote.

Where referenda differ is that none of us can be guided by partisan loyalty.

None of us? I wrongly assumed you read other people's posts on here
Mea culpa

I forgot about the Liberal Democrats and that mob led by that geezer whose name escapes me...

Yes you have a poor memory.

Anyway lets see the size of your bollox, what price do you want Boris leading Ukip after the referendum?

blackburn63 · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:
Most Labour voters who vote will vote Remain. A lot will stay at home though. Corbyn will campaign in his Corbyn bubble and will connect with no-one who is not already on his side. Many younger voters will not even be registered.
Will they?

Is the EU as popular amongst ordinary Labour party members as the party establishment?
No it isn't. But, it looks like 70-75% of those who vote will vote Remain.
Middle-class public-sector and urban Labour voters in cities like Bristol, Manchester, and London, yes.

I'm not so sure about old WWC Labour voters in the northeast and northwest.

I am

old_labour · April 2016

Plato_Says said:
Obama was having his taken with Dawn Butler
old_labour said:
Mirror readers seem underwhelmed by Seema Malhotra's article.
"Online gaming with thousands across the world"?
JC should let the Tories fight this out among themselves.
Strange that no photo of Jeremy and Obama has been released. I am assuming that Corbyn did not want one.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.

Excellent post.

Plato_Says · April 2016

Welcome to PB, Mr Burn.

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.
Excellent post.

Indeed it is.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

SandyRentool said:
As you know, I'm a Labour Leaver. If JC had stuck by his long held position and campaigned for Leave we would have walked it - but the PLP would have been foaming at the mouth. I guess keeping the leadership is more important to him than some of us realise.

I expect Remain to win - and then we have to follow the advice of JC and Varoufakis and try and sort out the EU from within.

The consolation for me is that several prominent Tories are going to come out of this as damaged goods, and I expect the EU argument to rumble on and be the big divide in their leadership election. Hopefully this will result in them electing someone who the membership love but the voters can't stand. Or Priti Patel.

Do you want me to see if I can get her phone number for you?

Casino_Royale · April 2016

GeoffM said:

runnymede said:

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.
Agreed. The article is a juvenile and incoherent mess
Thanks for reading it for all of us. I stopped at "boorish".
At that point is was clear that the article wasn't going to add anything constructive or intellectually challenging to the debate.

Geoff, are you the only Brexiteer in Gibraltar?

Or are the polls (poll?) wrong?

Indigo · April 2016

DavidL said:
The consensus, me apart, was that the EU needed to be seriously reformed but it was better to attempt this from the inside. It was acknowledged we have been trying to do this since at least 1992 without success.

Based on this relatively modest sample it seems to me this is the way most Labour voters will see it. There is no love or admiration for the EU but there is a view that it is better in than out.

Ugh, so they used the domestic abuse argument all over again, "He love's me really, if I just stay a bit longer I am sure I can make him stop hitting me". ON WHAT EVIDENCE ?

The points about employment rights are as usual a little strange, there is no reason that a British government could not pass exactly the same laws. The fact that they don't means the people have not elected the right government to do it. So the EU is being used as a way to circumvent democracy.

Happily people like that are quite likely to be more interested on what is on TV on polling day

Indigo · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.

You were the one who was "undecided"...

Wanderer · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:
Word of advice. Phrases like 'boorish Boris' might sound good among those wishing to recapture their student protest days but they don't do much for an article when just lobbed in with no context in the first paragraph. It's a strong indicator of a hatchet job.

Having ploughed on to the end, I'm not quite sure what the articles arguing, though I've got a strong sense that I disagree. Concluding with "Maybe that’s right – maybe it isn’t" isn't a great deal of help on a betting site. Indeed, it doesn't really add much to the total sum of knowledge. I do sympathise: I've written articles before where I've come to the same kind of non-conclusion. Usually, it's because I've either not thought it through properly or because I've subconsciously wanted to avoid the natural conclusion.

Also, is there not a natural dissonance between opening the article by saying that Boris should listen to his wise dad and then closing it by saying that parents should listen to their wise children?

On that 'intergeneration conversation' (something which cuts two ways), Remain is taking the wrong example if looking to Ireland. There, there was clearly a social movement with opinion swinging in one direction (as it has here on that same topic, again with the young leading); on the EU, I suspect that the older voters will be much harder to swing because they themselves were pro-EU back in the 1970s and 80s. It's much more likely that having travelled the Eurosceptic path, they'll respond to apppeals from their children and grandchildren with the comment "you'll learn".

I've read Gimson's biography of Boris (review here - http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/RVN4UMPMD0R7H), and am not surprised by what Don describes as a 'scathing account' of Boris' actions re Obama.

In working out who'll be the next Tory leader, we shouldn't be looking to his dad or journalists but to Tory MPs and members. Don needs to get inside their heads if he wants to understand what's going on. Perhaps that's why he came to the conclusion he didn't.
Excellent post.

Yes. Especially the last paragraph. If one is betting on next Tory leader one needs to focus on the people who will make that decision.

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...

It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36135768

'With turnout taken into account, Remain captures 51 per cent of all definite voters, down one point since last week, and Leave attracts 46 per cent, an increase of three points.'
ORB latest poll. So it really is all over?

CD13 · April 2016

Mr Brind supports the teach your Gran how to suck eggs campaign.

I think the schools should take it up and give the children leaflets to take home. It's the Government's right after all. Just think what effect those twelve-year-olds will have when they tell their parents and grandparents. "We learned all about life it in a forty minute lesson."

MarqueeMark · April 2016

TCPoliticalBetting said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36135768

'With turnout taken into account, Remain captures 51 per cent of all definite voters, down one point since last week, and Leave attracts 46 per cent, an increase of three points.' ORB latest poll

The Can't Be Arsed Party are on the move?

runnymede · April 2016

SandyRentool said:
'Alan Johnson will tell union members that EU membership is "vital" for workers' rights.'

I thought that was what union members voted Labour for. Oh well, might as well vote Tory as long as we stay in the EU.

Perhaps Cameron and Osborne will be using that argument soon

Roger · April 2016

A very enjoyable article for Borisphobes. Whether Boris has destroyed the chances of Leave or the Leave campaign has destroyed the ambitions of Boris we have yet to find out. It could well be both.

How appropriate that on this 400th anniversary of Shakespeare's death we should be reminded of one of his most intriguing and duplicitous characters, Iago "In following him I follow but myself......."

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/724851305236275201

Indigo · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

Nonsense. The "loony leavers" won't get the keys, Dave keeps the keys after the referendum. You are in Remain because you can't stand the idea of being associated with the Kippers or any other their works, you have told us as much many times.

Casino_Royale · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

Who? I felt most were genuinely and respectfully canvassing your vote on here prior to your declaration.

DavidL · April 2016

Indigo said:

DavidL said:
The consensus, me apart, was that the EU needed to be seriously reformed but it was better to attempt this from the inside. It was acknowledged we have been trying to do this since at least 1992 without success.

Based on this relatively modest sample it seems to me this is the way most Labour voters will see it. There is no love or admiration for the EU but there is a view that it is better in than out.
Ugh, so they used the domestic abuse argument all over again, "He love's me really, if I just stay a bit longer I am sure I can make him stop hitting me". ON WHAT EVIDENCE ?

The points about employment rights are as usual a little strange, there is no reason that a British government could not pass exactly the same laws. The fact that they don't means the people have not elected the right government to do it. So the EU is being used as a way to circumvent democracy.

Happily people like that are quite likely to be more interested on what is on TV on polling day

On the contrary this was a very involved and politically active crowd. I have no doubt at all that they will vote.

There was a genuine view that in respect of equality and women's rights in particular that pressure from the EU had resulted in changes to UK law that we might have struggled to make on our own. Personally, I think there is something in that. The evangelical approach of the Nordic countries in particular probably made the EU legislation go further than many countries including ours would have done on their own.

In so far as I had any success I think there was agreement that this is a very complex decision with a lot of issues to be balanced on both sides. Politicians on either side of the argument who claim it is in any way black or white were thought to be patronising and irritating. Both sides could learn from that but especially Leave.

blueburn · April 2016

Of course, young people have never lived in a country where we had the power to elect a government who had the power to govern us. They've grown-up (I use the term loosely) indoctrinated in schools to be good little 'Europeans'. They have never had 'whole' vote, just one that can influence the bits the EU don't want- yet. Thankfully, there are those, old enough, to remember independence and having a vote that counts. Let's hope there are enough of us.

Indigo · April 2016

Roger said:
A very enjoyable article for Borisphobes. If Boris has destroyed the chances of Leave and the Leave campaign has destroyed the ambitions of Boris.

How many days of pointing and laughing are we allowed if Leave are ahead in the next poll ? What about if they win ?

JackW · April 2016

Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

1 hour

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

Two comments in a row insulting people who are for LEAVE. Is this really appropriate for here?

murali_s · April 2016

JackW said:
Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

1 hour

Can't wait an hour - have to work!

Any chance of a leak?

blackburn63 · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

The thing is it doesn't matter how many times you repeat that it's still not true. No Leavers, most especially the more vociferous ones on here, are going to be in charge of anything. The referendum is about whether or not we stay in the EU, it doesn't change the party of govt.

DavidL · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/724851305236275201

Is that not massively out of line for PC? I thought they were generally polling ahead of the tories, at least for the Welsh Parliament.

Indigo · April 2016

DavidL said:
There was a genuine view that in respect of equality and women's rights in particular that pressure from the EU had resulted in changes to UK law that we might have struggled to make on our own. Personally, I think there is something in that. The evangelical approach of the Nordic countries in particular probably made the EU legislation go further than many countries including ours would have done on their own.

So yes, a contempt for democracy then. The British people can't be trusted (or are too oafish) to elect a government that will pass the right laws, as approved of by the progressive middle classes, so it has to be foisted on them by an external organisation run by people they didn't elect. Its the same mindset as the missionaries in Africa and South America a century ago, contempt for local views and social mores that need to be made to see the light.

TCPoliticalBetting · April 2016

runnymede said:

SandyRentool said:
'Alan Johnson will tell union members that EU membership is "vital" for workers' rights.'

I thought that was what union members voted Labour for. Oh well, might as well vote Tory as long as we stay in the EU.
Perhaps Cameron and Osborne will be using that argument soon

It would not surprise me.

MarqueeMark · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

To die wrapped around a tree - or a lingering case of terminal smugness?

I'll take the Marc Bolan way out.

Roger · April 2016

Indigo said:

Roger said:
A very enjoyable article for Borisphobes. If Boris has destroyed the chances of Leave and the Leave campaign has destroyed the ambitions of Boris.
How many days of pointing and laughing are we allowed if Leave are ahead in the next poll ? What about if they win ?

Unlimited. You can gloat and laugh merrily and then ponder a future with Boris as Prime Minister.

Morris_Dancer · April 2016

Good morning, everyone.

MikeK is having some difficulty posting. He gets a message saying he 'doesn't have permission to do that', and would appreciate those with admin powers rectifying the situation (and also wanted Mr. W to know that, if he's unable to be on tomorrow for the forecast [EU< I think] that's why).

Indigo · April 2016

CD13 said:
Mr Brind supports the teach your Gran how to suck eggs campaign.

I think the schools should take it up and give the children leaflets to take home. It's the Government's right after all. Just think what effect those twelve-year-olds will have when they tell their parents and grandparents. "We learned all about life it in a forty minute lesson."

"That's nice dear, now eat up your greens"

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.

That goes for me also.

Scott_P · April 2016

blackburn63 said:
The thing is it doesn't matter how many times you repeat that it's still not true. No Leavers, most especially the more vociferous ones on here, are going to be in charge of anything.

But the PB brain trust keep telling us Dave will resign immediately and a Leaver will take over.

Are they wrong?

CD13 · April 2016

I don't understand the 'it's better to stay in so we can alter things' meme.

(1) We've been in 40 odd years and had a say in minor points only. The direction of travel has not been altered, merely delayed by events.
(2) Cameron went to the EU with the threat of British withdrawal hanging over him. Result ... the square root of f*ck all.
(3) No current party we are likely to elect is remotely interested in altering things anyway. The Establishment has decided.
(4) Having voted Remain in a referendum, why would the Eurocrats be interested in our proposed changes?

Innocent_Abroad · April 2016

blueburn said:
Of course, young people have never lived in a country where we had the power to elect a government who had the power to govern us. They've grown-up (I use the term loosely) indoctrinated in schools to be good little 'Europeans'. They have never had 'whole' vote, just one that can influence the bits the EU don't want- yet. Thankfully, there are those, old enough, to remember independence and having a vote that counts. Let's hope there are enough of us.

Nothing's been right since Attlee abandoned India

DavidL · April 2016

Indigo said:

DavidL said:
There was a genuine view that in respect of equality and women's rights in particular that pressure from the EU had resulted in changes to UK law that we might have struggled to make on our own. Personally, I think there is something in that. The evangelical approach of the Nordic countries in particular probably made the EU legislation go further than many countries including ours would have done on their own.
So yes, a contempt for democracy then. The British people can't be trusted (or are too oafish) to elect a government that will pass the right laws, as approved of by the progressive middle classes, so it has to be foisted on them by an external organisation run by people they didn't elect. Its the same mindset as the missionaries in Africa and South America a century ago, contempt for local views and social mores that need to be made to see the light.

As a tory voter and enthusiastic supporter of a tory government living in Scotland I find this a somewhat difficult argument. It really depends on what your demos is. If you think it is Europe (I don't but it is a legitimate point of view) then we did indeed vote for it.

blackburn63 · April 2016

Roger said:

Indigo said:

Roger said:
A very enjoyable article for Borisphobes. If Boris has destroyed the chances of Leave and the Leave campaign has destroyed the ambitions of Boris.
How many days of pointing and laughing are we allowed if Leave are ahead in the next poll ? What about if they win ?
Unlimited. You can gloat and laugh merrily and then ponder a future with Boris as Prime Minister.

You see I can't decide if this is a snaky ad man speaking or that you truly believe it, so I'll ask you this:

please outline the chain of events that leads to Boris becoming PM.

I'm keen to hear your thought process.

Indigo · April 2016

Innocent_Abroad said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.
That goes for me also.

The referendum is going to change the party of government and the country is going to be run by Farage and Galloway on 24th June, who knew it ?

Sean_F · April 2016

Indigo said:

DavidL said:
There was a genuine view that in respect of equality and women's rights in particular that pressure from the EU had resulted in changes to UK law that we might have struggled to make on our own. Personally, I think there is something in that. The evangelical approach of the Nordic countries in particular probably made the EU legislation go further than many countries including ours would have done on their own.
So yes, a contempt for democracy then. The British people can't be trusted (or are too oafish) to elect a government that will pass the right laws, as approved of by the progressive middle classes, so it has to be foisted on them by an external organisation run by people they didn't elect. Its the same mindset as the missionaries in Africa and South America a century ago, contempt for local views and social mores that need to be made to see the light.

I've always been of the view that employment law should exclusively belong to national governments, rather than being determined at pan-European level.

I'm sure we can all find individual bits of legislation that we like, which would not have been implemented outside the EU, but I'd still prefer to see legislation made by people who are accountable for it to national electorates.

AlastairMeeks · April 2016

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Indigo said:

blueburn said:
The 'oldies' who now favour Brexit, were the young idealists who voted to stay in the common Market in 1975. Now, we know better. After 40 years of lies, we know better. Any generational divide is due to the 'young' not having, yet, the experience of the ongoing reality of the EU and its machinations. They, like we 'yes' voters of '75, will live to regret their vote in favour of the on-going denigration of the influence of their vote.
Precisely.

There is a saying that "A Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged by reality"
Many of the Leavers still seem concussed.
You were the one who was "undecided"...
It was the loony Leavers who pushed me into the Remain camp. Nothing good is going to come from giving such people the car keys.
Who? I felt most were genuinely and respectfully canvassing your vote on here prior to your declaration.

I'm not going to name names, but here's a non-exhaustive checklist:

1) fondness for conspiracy theories
2) focus on sovereignty without any clear idea what they actually want to use any notionally regained sovereignty for
3) default hostility towards foreign governments while we are in the EU
4) default assumption that the same foreign governments will unhesitatingly give Britain everything the Leave camp wants the moment a decision was taken to leave the EU
5) dislike of uneducated immigrants
6) when you point out that recent migrants to the UK are on average far more educated than the native population, dislike of overqualified immigrants
7) a keenness on doing deals with non-EU countries in the abstract and a hostility to their political leaders in the concrete
8) regards the idea that Leave might actually formulate some idea of what leaving the EU should look like as an outrage
9) uses the words traitor and quisling for anyone who is uncertain whether we should leave the EU
10) sees those migrants entering Europe illegally as a pestilence rather than as people
11) sees any form of cooperation with other countries in the EU, no matter how pressing the need, as the thin end of the wedge
12) is unable to see any benefits in the EU of any type whatsoever, no matter how minor

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