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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so the 2016 White House Race moves to delegate-rich New York
In recent days there’s been a big improvement in Trump’s betting position following his disappointment in Wisconsin two weeks when he dropped to below a 50%.
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Labour's John McDonnell has backed thousands of teachers and nurses to walk out on strike and vowed to bring down the Government through direct action.
In an incendiary speech, the Shadow Chancellor said the era of Labour leaders refusing to back strike action is “over”.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-john-mcdonnell-wants-angry-7789957
EDIT: I see this is now public:
http://tinyurl.com/jfyakvt
I am so grateful that I use SWT and not GTR.
Marmite like Trump
Demeaning to their opponents like Momentum
GOmentum?
REMAIN: Hillary Clinton. Obviously
Wearing a necklace of bullets
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/pierson-trump-711-222145
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/voters-treated-like-children-because-they-basically-are-say-experts-20160419108132
POLITICIANS treat voters like children because they act like children, experts have confirmed.
Professor Henry Brubaker, from the Institute for Studies, said: “You want lots of nice things, but you don’t want to pay for them...
That’s why the Brexit campaign offers you unlimited toys and the Remain campaign tells you there’s an insane clown under your bed.”
They're tearing strips out of each other, it reminds me of the Nat bollocks that all the jocks would be big pals and kiss and make up. How did that work out ?
The Tories have lost the plot, they've gone for victory at any price and that price might be a permanently split party. 4kin stupid.
If you seriously imagine that Labour won't play the remainers words back on them and that UKIP won;t play the Leavers words back, where both sides Tories have agreed their conservative colleagues are useless lying twats then as Macauliffe said your'e "Nuts"
Plus, the Tory database on what Corbyn has said in the past, and what Labour people have said of Corbyn is mahoosive compared to recent Blue on Blue action.
Think of the Tories like The Romans in the Second Punic War, distracted and letting their opponents do well.
Once they get their arses in gear, they are going to give Labour the shellacking of their lives.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html
The Tories simply scraped over the line last time by good luck - the lucky general is hanging up his boots.
Kleptocracy? I thought that referred to to the ruling EU oligarchy.
The Republican Nom market is driven by sentiment - with the occasional injection of reality when a Primary is held. The big gap between votes has allowed sentiment rule the market since Wisconsin, the NY Primary is going to swing it back to reality - for a while.
http://www.politico.eu/article/an-eu-mandarins-call-for-more-integration-pascal-lamy/
They are preaching to the village hall full of supporters, not the country full of voters. At this rate all the Tories have to do is avoid Osborne taking up the reigns and they are home free in 2020.
I've done several threads saying the Tories shouldn't be complacent about 2020, and we'd be screwed if Labour dumped Jez and picked someone vaguely electable
@election_data: @TSEofPB anyone would think there's a leadership election coming up or summink
And Labour solved that problem by hiring a career back bencher with less experience of ruling than me.
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Jeremy Corbyn - 30%
Theresa May - 23%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k0c0qjfg6w/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf
#justsaying
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/722426152363651072
The membership under his leadership has already plunged to a new low and that is before the events of this summer have played out. Cameron may well go down in history as the chap who fecked it all up, his party and the UK.
If Labour had a sensible leadership team (e.g. Southam Observer, gent of this parish,
plus whoever he chose), they would be streets ahead right now and on course for a massive majority in 2020.
Perhaps it is the genius of our system that only people who are unfit and or incapable of doing the job are given the chance to actually do it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/18/mitt_romney_cruz_and_kasich_divide_the_vote_trump_likely_to_get_1237_delegates.html
By contrast, whoever is elected Tory leader will have the advantage of going into the election *as* PM. Unless they've made a complete pig's ear of it, that will of itself help how prime ministerial they'll look.
So who was the lady in Wm Hill's shop earlier with 100k burning a hole in her handbag?
If you have any points you think are of particular relevance in Professor Minford's book, do let me know (always assuming that you've actually read it yourself).
If the Conservatives want to recover from the treacherous Cameron and Osborne then they need to put in a rising star like Priti Patel or Dominic Raab.
Until recently I thought May would the shrewdest choice for the Tories, but polling evidence suggests the public just doesn't like her. It may well be Boris or bust.
It's like asking Nick Griffin to give a measure appraisal of immigration policy.
But, nonetheless, even most people who admitted that still weren't willing to vote Labour, because they just didn't like Brown as a person, and/or because "Labour have been in long enough now and it's time for a change".
I topped up on Trump at 1.45 too fwiw
I would say that significant Trade Union discontent broke one Tory government and made another. A score draw 1 all.
Alternatively, you could say that the Unions in the Seventies brought down 2 consecutive governments and put 2 oppositions in. Arguably the 2 nil to the Trade Unions. Obviously in the early Eighties the result went the other way.
If other nations were determined to treat the UK as a pariah state, if we had the temerity to vote Leave, (I don't actually think they would be so irrational) then I think that would shift opinion in favour of Leave rather than Remain.
http://www.cityam.com/239128/the-treasury-has-it-entirely-wrong-the-british-economy-would-gain-from-brexit
About Trump's rising odds in the betting markets, my opinion is that it's all about the sentiment about Trump sweeping the north eastern USA.
But it does have substance after the California poll.
You might not like all that Priti Patel stands for but, by the cringe, you can't accuse her of lacking the guts to lead. She, or someone like her, is probably the best chance the Conservatives have or even surviving as a major party, much less winning the next GE with an overall majority.
http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/
Although in all seriousness, this does appear to be a very green and pleasant land, in global terms. Quite heartening.
The Boy Blunder is heading for a well deserved massive fall, and Cameron can do bugger all to fix the split having so firmly, and probably deceitfully, come out for 'Remain', rather than sit it out on the sidelines.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12XTJWLWV46JDsxMso6ID_BlV0_6irPEyyY9kzxIm9iY/edit#gid=0
Tiny Bronx County (In terms of GOP voters) has an entire CD to itself !
Reports of extremely low turnout in Western Brooklyn, especially Williamsburg. This is in an important CD that Sanders was expected to be competitive in. Without help from Williamsburg, though, he may not. We try to remain neutral in these contests, but honestly, things look very good for Clinton today.
Boo. At least tease us a bit more New Yorkers.
Dem side.
34% are Liberal or V.Liberal (read left).
16% under age 30.
1. Prepared well in advance with alternative ways of running the services without strikers (Not done, no spare capcity created for these services, no alternatives in place).
2. Have a strong Leader at the top who has a single focus on winning and is here to stay. (We have in Cameron a Leader distracted by the referendum and has an eye on the exit door).
3. Have a large amount of support from voters fed up with the strikes. (Not in place. The doctors are well supported.)
A 7P situation P*** Poor Preparation Promotes P*** Poor Performance.