politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The referendum is currently much more about the economy tha

watford30 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

//twitter.com/suttonnick/status/722175752670732288

The wheels have fallen off already. Is this a record for Osborne?

What fun. Either HMG denies the figures in which case the whole dossier goes down as bunkum, or they confirm it and take a bucket of manure in the face.

Leave will lose the economy case and they hope immigration will win them the day.

Leave should simply invent vaguely plausible figures, and repeat them endlessly. That seems to be how it works with Remain.

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report
Fraser Nelson

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/?utm_content=buffer3fa2c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Good piece.

Cameron and Osborne probably will get their wish and keep us locked in to the EU (with more integration and a probable switch to the Euro no doubt on the cards during the coming decades) but there is one saving grace... We'll be able to sit back and watch the spectacle of the Odious Osborne (what a nice ring that phrase has... When the papers put it in their headlines a few years hence, remember you heard it here first) being utterly eviscerated and destroyed after Cameron b*ggers off.

How we'll laugh!

Also fun watching the tory leave MP's and membership get revenge on the snake when the leadership contest starts.

AnneJGP said:

SeanT said:

This site is teetering, fatally, on the farcical. It's not the fact that you are constantly shilling for REMAIN - that's annoying but fair, OGH is a europhile, a Lib Dem, his deputies and writers ostly feel the same - but the endless drivel you spout is simply incorrect.

If LEAVE was really as hopeless and helpless as you endlessly claim, then REMAIN would now be out of sight in the polling. But it's MOE Dead Heat.

Perhaps, as a service to political bettors, you might like to run a few threads discussing why that is the case, rather than this exercise in relentless wishful thinking.

I think the whole boring EUref campaign showcases this site's greatest strength: it's off-topic conversations.

Very much like the test match commentators on the radio when it starts raining - they go from business to entertaining conversation without missing a beat.

kle4 said:

nigel4england said:

kle4 said:

nigel4england said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Caught out by the new thread ...

As a West Ham fan enjoying one of our best seasons in decades I would be genuinely disappointed if the two points we cost Leicester meant they didn't win the Premier League. It is a very long time since I have so badly wanted a team other than the Hammers to win.

I bought Spurs on the spreads this morning, hugely impressive again tonight and Leicester are feeling the pressure.

And may be without Vardy for several games now.

Costa got an extra game, think Vardy will get the same.

1-0 up and doing fine and he decides to dive, what a strange decision with potentially significant consequences. Feel like they're bottling it, squeaked a lot of games, but eventually luck runs out.

MyBurningEars said:

Associate membership for the UK seems to me a better-fitting destination, in terms of popular will and perhaps even national character, than total integration. But where is the course for that?

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

//twitter.com/suttonnick/status/722175752670732288

The wheels have fallen off already. Is this a record for Osborne?

What fun. Either HMG denies the figures in which case the whole dossier goes down as bunkum, or they confirm it and take a bucket of manure in the face.

Leave will lose the economy case and they hope immigration will win them the day.

Immigration will not work as an issue if the EEA/EFTA route is favoured.

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report
Fraser Nelson

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/?utm_content=buffer3fa2c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Good piece.

Cameron and Osborne probably will get their wish and keep us locked in to the EU (with more integration and a probable switch to the Euro no doubt on the cards during the coming decades) but there is one saving grace... We'll be able to sit back and watch the spectacle of the Odious Osborne (what a nice ring that phrase has... When the papers put it in their headlines a few years hence, remember you heard it here first) being utterly eviscerated and destroyed after Cameron b*ggers off.

How we'll laugh!

Also fun watching the tory leave MP's and membership get revenge on the snake when the leadership contest starts.

Poor old pasty face. Osborne's threats to remove patronage won't work on the membership. They can read the runes showing his unpopularity across the electorate as a whole, and are unlikely to vote in an obvious loser.

foxinsoxuk said:

kle4 said:

nigel4england said:

kle4 said:

nigel4england said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Caught out by the new thread ...

As a West Ham fan enjoying one of our best seasons in decades I would be genuinely disappointed if the two points we cost Leicester meant they didn't win the Premier League. It is a very long time since I have so badly wanted a team other than the Hammers to win.

I bought Spurs on the spreads this morning, hugely impressive again tonight and Leicester are feeling the pressure.

And may be without Vardy for several games now.

Costa got an extra game, think Vardy will get the same.

1-0 up and doing fine and he decides to dive, what a strange decision with potentially significant consequences. Feel like they're bottling it, squeaked a lot of games, but eventually luck runs out.

It wasn't a dive, and the fightback with 10 men to equalise showed that Leicester are no bottlers.

Spurs are keeping it interesting, but the 4 points that we took off them this season will be the 4 points that win it for us. (I hope!)

not_on_fire said:

Surely the vast majority of those 3 million will come anyway even if we leave? Free movement will remain in one form or another.

Jonathan said:

The only celeb endorsement worth anything would be.

David Attenborough
David Beckham
Paul McCartney

foxinsoxuk said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report
Fraser Nelson

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/?utm_content=buffer3fa2c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Good piece.

Cameron and Osborne probably will get their wish and keep us locked in to the EU (with more integration and a probable switch to the Euro no doubt on the cards during the coming decades) but there is one saving grace... We'll be able to sit back and watch the spectacle of the Odious Osborne (what a nice ring that phrase has... When the papers put it in their headlines a few years hence, remember you heard it here first) being utterly eviscerated and destroyed after Cameron b*ggers off.

How we'll laugh!

Also fun watching the tory leave MP's and membership get revenge on the snake when the leadership contest starts.

Poor old pasty face. Osborne's threats to remove patronage won't work on the membership. They can read the runes showing his unpopularity across the electorate as a whole, and are unlikely to vote in an obvious loser.

George is an enigma, and I wouldn't write him off just yet. After the "omnishambles" budget PB was writing his political obituairy, but 3 years later he was widely credited as the annointed matermind of the election. Political tides change sometimes with startling rapidity.

foxinsoxuk said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report
Fraser Nelson

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/?utm_content=buffer3fa2c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Good piece.

Cameron and Osborne probably will get their wish and keep us locked in to the EU (with more integration and a probable switch to the Euro no doubt on the cards during the coming decades) but there is one saving grace... We'll be able to sit back and watch the spectacle of the Odious Osborne (what a nice ring that phrase has... When the papers put it in their headlines a few years hence, remember you heard it here first) being utterly eviscerated and destroyed after Cameron b*ggers off.

How we'll laugh!

Also fun watching the tory leave MP's and membership get revenge on the snake when the leadership contest starts.

Poor old pasty face. Osborne's threats to remove patronage won't work on the membership. They can read the runes showing his unpopularity across the electorate as a whole, and are unlikely to vote in an obvious loser.

George is an enigma, and I wouldn't write him off just yet. After the "omnishambles" budget PB was writing his political obituairy, but 3 years later he was widely credited as the annointed matermind of the election. Political tides change sometimes with startling rapidity.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Siemens join the Worldwide Global Conspiracy

@BBCNewsnight: Siemens boss @Juergen_Maier says no-one in world has struck major trade deal in 2 years so after #Brexit would likely take longer #newsnight

The list against Brexit is overwhelming and it is all feeding into the economy. Notice the Mail and Sun are playing the immigration game but all this will do is invite more questions to leave on how they will control immigration

Scott_P said:

@BBCNewsnight: "The Swiss had to base their major banks in London because they couldn't get a deal with the EU." #newsnight #EUref https://t.co/USbc4msB0S

Tykejohnno said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Siemens join the Worldwide Global Conspiracy

@BBCNewsnight: Siemens boss @Juergen_Maier says no-one in world has struck major trade deal in 2 years so after #Brexit would likely take longer #newsnight

The list against Brexit is overwhelming and it is all feeding into the economy. Notice the Mail and Sun are playing the immigration game but all this will do is invite more questions to leave on how they will control immigration

So the tories ten's of thousands was a complete lie ?

Mortimer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report
Fraser Nelson

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/?utm_content=buffer3fa2c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Good piece.

Cameron and Osborne probably will get their wish and keep us locked in to the EU (with more integration and a probable switch to the Euro no doubt on the cards during the coming decades) but there is one saving grace... We'll be able to sit back and watch the spectacle of the Odious Osborne (what a nice ring that phrase has... When the papers put it in their headlines a few years hence, remember you heard it here first) being utterly eviscerated and destroyed after Cameron b*ggers off.

How we'll laugh!

Also fun watching the tory leave MP's and membership get revenge on the snake when the leadership contest starts.

Poor old pasty face. Osborne's threats to remove patronage won't work on the membership. They can read the runes showing his unpopularity across the electorate as a whole, and are unlikely to vote in an obvious loser.

George is an enigma, and I wouldn't write him off just yet. After the "omnishambles" budget PB was writing his political obituairy, but 3 years later he was widely credited as the annointed matermind of the election. Political tides change sometimes with startling rapidity.

Dr Fox I'm beginning to think that you're the patron saint of lost causes.

You'll be writing a thread saying Tim Fallon (sic) can be the next PM, next.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of my Leaver friends is upset this is appearing as a promoted tweet in his feed

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722110918906261504

How do the REMAINERS know BREXIT will cost us £4,300 per household?

It is the Treasury report that quote the figure. I think it is as unreliable as the 350 million per week leave quote is. The poll tonight seems to be the first to indicate a real move to remain. Also the NFU and the Royal College of Midwives have both come out in support of remain

No, the £4,300 figure is a forecast, which is in the range of possible outcomes. The £350 million figure is just plain wrong (or, as the Leavers are so fond of saying, a 'lie').

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of my Leaver friends is upset this is appearing as a promoted tweet in his feed

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722110918906261504

How do the REMAINERS know BREXIT will cost us £4,300 per household?

It is the Treasury report that quote the figure. I think it is as unreliable as the 350 million per week leave quote is. The poll tonight seems to be the first to indicate a real move to remain. Also the NFU and the Royal College of Midwives have both come out in support of remain

No, the £4,300 figure is a forecast, which is in the range of possible outcomes. The £350 million figure is just plain wrong (or, as the Leavers are so fond of saying, a 'lie').

watford30 said:

A lie, as in 'leaving the EU could lead to Calais-style migrant camps being established in parts of the UK'?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Tykejohnno said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Siemens join the Worldwide Global Conspiracy

@BBCNewsnight: Siemens boss @Juergen_Maier says no-one in world has struck major trade deal in 2 years so after #Brexit would likely take longer #newsnight

The list against Brexit is overwhelming and it is all feeding into the economy. Notice the Mail and Sun are playing the immigration game but all this will do is invite more questions to leave on how they will control immigration

So the tories ten's of thousands was a complete lie ?

It was not a lie but proved impossible to achieve. I do believe David Cameron should have abandoned the idea some time ago.

SeanT said:

Useless anecdote alert: just had dinner with a very will informed friend, one of the most astute persons I know. This person is super bright, gently right wing, but very free thinking, and professionally knows EVERYONE from senior Cabinet Ministers to famous TV stars to all the major journalists.

His thoughts on the referendum? Personally he s IN for selfish reasons, but he is now increasingly convinced it is too close to call. Far too close for comfort.

My friend also named an extremely well known TV personality who is absolutely the epitome of Middle Britain, and my friend said this celeb was OUT, to his total surprise. Given that this celeb is generally regarded as a bellwether for the country, my friend now fears it will go OUT.

Moses_ said:

SeanT said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SeanT said:

Useless anecdote alert: just had dinner with a very will informed friend, one of the most astute persons I know. This person is super bright, gently right wing, but very free thinking, and professionally knows EVERYONE from senior Cabinet Ministers to famous TV stars to all the major journalists.

His thoughts on the referendum? Personally he s IN for selfish reasons, but he is now increasingly convinced it is too close to call. Far too close for comfort.

My friend also named an extremely well known TV personality who is absolutely the epitome of Middle Britain, and my friend said this celeb was OUT, to his total surprise. Given that this celeb is generally regarded as a bellwether for the country, my friend now fears it will go OUT.

Alan Titchmarsh?

I will confirm it is NOT Alan Titchmarsh, we are talking someone EVEN more famous.

And beyond that, my lips are zipped.

Jo Brand?

PeterC said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNewsnight: "The Swiss had to base their major banks in London because they couldn't get a deal with the EU." #newsnight #EUref https://t.co/USbc4msB0S

When/if George becomes leader (and get's destroyed as he inevitably will) will you be spinning (and re-tweeting) like Comincal Ali?

Osborne is finished.

perdix said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

watford30 said:

Tykejohnno said:

//twitter.com/suttonnick/status/722175752670732288

The wheels have fallen off already. Is this a record for Osborne?

What fun. Either HMG denies the figures in which case the whole dossier goes down as bunkum, or they confirm it and take a bucket of manure in the face.

Leave will lose the economy case and they hope immigration will win them the day.

I don't see European immigration as the force it once would have been in this debate. Perhaps we've gotten used to having these foreigners in our midst. Even the Poles! I know plenty of Brits who have got romantically involved with them, never mind wanting to 'send 'em back'. Of course, Islamic terrorists are a different matter, but for their presence here we have to blame the one club of nations the Leavers are actually keen on - the British Empire.

If we go Brexit and have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU , they will insist on free movement. Eastern Europe is making too much money out of it to give it up. Immigration would not be easier to control.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

A net £10 bn given per annum to Brussels works out at £192 million per week.

Quite. so.

The true figure depends a bit on your assumptions and which year you take, but it certainly isn't £18bn. More like £8bn to £10bn, not all of which would be saved in any scenario, and little of which would be saved in the PB Leavers' favoured option of the EEA.

For some inexplicable reason, however, the Leavers here, who are indignant about Cameron and Osborne putting their side of the case, are 100% relaxed at the repeated use by the Leave campaign of the bogus £18bn figure. It's bizarre. Something to do with double standards, I guess.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of my Leaver friends is upset this is appearing as a promoted tweet in his feed

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722110918906261504

How do the REMAINERS know BREXIT will cost us £4,300 per household?

It is the Treasury report that quote the figure. I think it is as unreliable as the 350 million per week leave quote is.

No, the £4,300 figure is a forecast, which is in the range of possible outcomes. The £350 million figure is just plain wrong (or, as the Leavers are so fond of saying, a 'lie').

Layne said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of my Leaver friends is upset this is appearing as a promoted tweet in his feed

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722110918906261504

How do the REMAINERS know BREXIT will cost us £4,300 per household?

It is the Treasury report that quote the figure. I think it is as unreliable as the 350 million per week leave quote is.

No, the £4,300 figure is a forecast, which is in the range of possible outcomes. The £350 million figure is just plain wrong (or, as the Leavers are so fond of saying, a 'lie').

No. Dividing the 2030 GDP number by the 2015 household number, and then pretending it is a household income number, is just a lie.

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

A lie, as in 'leaving the EU could lead to Calais-style migrant camps being established in parts of the UK'?

No, more like 'millions of migrants are coming to the UK'.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

A lie, as in 'leaving the EU could lead to Calais-style migrant camps being established in parts of the UK'?

No, more like 'millions of migrants are coming to the UK'.

Not that it bothers me but on a point of order isn't it the case that they already have?

No, I meant the refugees/economic migrants entering the EU.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Layne said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of my Leaver friends is upset this is appearing as a promoted tweet in his feed

https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/722110918906261504

How do the REMAINERS know BREXIT will cost us £4,300 per household?

It is the Treasury report that quote the figure. I think it is as unreliable as the 350 million per week leave quote is.

No, the £4,300 figure is a forecast, which is in the range of possible outcomes. The £350 million figure is just plain wrong (or, as the Leavers are so fond of saying, a 'lie').

No. Dividing the 2030 GDP number by the 2015 household number, and then pretending it is a household income number, is just a lie.

Fair enough.

Now tell me, what is the £350 million a week figure?

Jonathan said:

PeterC said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SeanT said:

Useless anecdote alert: just had dinner with a very will informed friend, one of the most astute persons I know. This person is super bright, gently right wing, but very free thinking, and professionally knows EVERYONE from senior Cabinet Ministers to famous TV stars to all the major journalists.

His thoughts on the referendum? Personally he s IN for selfish reasons, but he is now increasingly convinced it is too close to call. Far too close for comfort.

My friend also named an extremely well known TV personality who is absolutely the epitome of Middle Britain, and my friend said this celeb was OUT, to his total surprise. Given that this celeb is generally regarded as a bellwether for the country, my friend now fears it will go OUT.

Alan Titchmarsh?

David Dimbleby?

H from steps

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

A net £10 bn given per annum to Brussels works out at £192 million per week.

Quite. so.

The true figure depends a bit on your assumptions and which year you take, but it certainly isn't £18bn. More like £8bn to £10bn, not all of which would be saved in any scenario, and little of which would be saved in the PB Leavers' favoured option of the EEA.

For some inexplicable reason, however, the Leavers here, who are indignant about Cameron and Osborne putting their side of the case, are 100% relaxed at the repeated use by the Leave campaign of the bogus £18bn figure. It's bizarre. Something to do with double standards, I guess.

I see the UK contribution to the EU for 2015 was £13 billion, and £4.5 billion was spent in the UK, so the net contribution would obviously be £8.5 billion.

£8.5 bn divided by 52 weeks = £163 million per week.

On moneygoround.eu the figure works our as about £6 billion, or €117 percapita:

http://money-go-round.eu/Country.aspx?id=UK

Of course if you do not allow the EU expenditure on farming, conservation regional development or universities that comes back then you get to a bigger figure. It does mean that that spending will have to be cut so the money is spent on our NHS. Don't be surprised if the farmers, regions and universities are unhappy at their drop in income and campaign for Remain

Sunil_Prasannan said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

A net £10 bn given per annum to Brussels works out at £192 million per week.

Quite. so.

The true figure depends a bit on your assumptions and which year you take, but it certainly isn't £18bn. More like £8bn to £10bn, not all of which would be saved in any scenario, and little of which would be saved in the PB Leavers' favoured option of the EEA.

For some inexplicable reason, however, the Leavers here, who are indignant about Cameron and Osborne putting their side of the case, are 100% relaxed at the repeated use by the Leave campaign of the bogus £18bn figure. It's bizarre. Something to do with double standards, I guess.

I see the UK contribution to the EU for 2015 was £13 billion, and £4.5 billion was spent in the UK, so the net contribution would obviously be £8.5 billion.

£8.5 bn divided by 52 weeks = £163 million per week.

On moneygoround.eu the figure works our as about £6 billion, or €117 percapita:

http://money-go-round.eu/Country.aspx?id=UK

Of course if you do not allow the EU expenditure on farming, conservation regional development or universities that comes back then you get to a bigger figure. It does mean that that spending will have to be cut so the money is spent on our NHS. Don't be surprised if the farmers, regions and universities are unhappy at their drop in income and campaign for Remain

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

MikeK said:

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:

Useless anecdote alert: just had dinner with a very will informed friend, one of the most astute persons I know. This person is super bright, gently right wing, but very free thinking, and professionally knows EVERYONE from senior Cabinet Ministers to famous TV stars to all the major journalists.

His thoughts on the referendum? Personally he s IN for selfish reasons, but he is now increasingly convinced it is too close to call. Far too close for comfort.

My friend also named an extremely well known TV personality who is absolutely the epitome of Middle Britain, and my friend said this celeb was OUT, to his total surprise. Given that this celeb is generally regarded as a bellwether for the country, my friend now fears it will go OUT.

Is it Elton John ?

No, it's probably Daenerys Targaryen and a breathless dragon or two.

Moses_ said:

MikeK said:

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:

Useless anecdote alert: just had dinner with a very will informed friend, one of the most astute persons I know. This person is super bright, gently right wing, but very free thinking, and professionally knows EVERYONE from senior Cabinet Ministers to famous TV stars to all the major journalists.

His thoughts on the referendum? Personally he s IN for selfish reasons, but he is now increasingly convinced it is too close to call. Far too close for comfort.

My friend also named an extremely well known TV personality who is absolutely the epitome of Middle Britain, and my friend said this celeb was OUT, to his total surprise. Given that this celeb is generally regarded as a bellwether for the country, my friend now fears it will go OUT.

Is it Elton John ?

No, it's probably Daenerys Targaryen and a breathless dragon or two.

I know who it is *palm forehead*

Harry Potter.

MikeK said:

Before I retire to bed in a few minutes, I'd like to say that its a poor show that many on PB would like to see Great Britain disappear and subsumed in the amorphous mass of the EU.

No pride! No honour! No courage! Just sleazy self interest, which in the end will prove to be a delusion.