politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd
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I don't think Dave is going to let her keep quiet much longer, the signs of her being pushed forward are in today's papers.LadyBucket said:Some of her colleagues are making complete fools of themselves re their comments about the EU referendum and their comments will be hung round their necks forever.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/17/theresa-may-to-get-enhanced-role-in-eu-referendum-to-win-over-wa/
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Another item today that is going to rock the immigration boat just a little more.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2016/04/18/primary-school-offer-day-news-latest-figures-and-appeals/The figures showed that in some places over 10 per cent of pupils are missing out on their first choice for primary school, including Essex, Hull and Ealing, where 17 per cent of pupils didn’t get their first choice.
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Accept enthusiastically. Explain that whilst you've always thought the Remain argument was a strong one, recent coverage and issues raised have caused serious questions in your mind, and you're looking forward to being able to ask a lot of really in-depth, searching questions of the much more enlightened Establishment figures who will be there.Casino_Royale said:Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
If the big cheeses don't immediately disinvite you in horror, you then have carte blanche - in the most innocent, searcher-after-truth manner, of course - to ask all sorts of hard questions, and possibly look disappointed afterwards.0 -
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Vowy McVowface.MarqueeMark said:So George has had to press the nuclear button on the economy. As a side issue, it means he loses huge credibility on his wider management of the economy if he is seen to shamelessly rely on the most manipulated outcome to get a result that isn't a whole heap different whether we Remain or Leave.
But what if this does't shift the polls? What else has Project Fear now got left in its missile silos?0 -
I would find it very difficult to keep my food down if Mandelson started speaking.Pulpstar said:
I'd go, find out what pearls of wisdom Mandelson gives out for his 'normal speaking fee'. Perhaps wonder how much your firm has spent on the jollyCasino_Royale said:Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
Maybe Casino should go and "do a George Bush" during his speech....?0 -
@Casino_Royale I'm quite sure that Lord Mandelson will have heard objections to his position on the EU before. If you keep them reasoned and polite, you will be fine. You won't be the only Leaver in the room. If I were you, I'd go.
He can be a dryly entertaining speaker, even when you disagree with him.
If nothing else, Westminster Abbey is a sensational building so you can enjoy the surroundings.0 -
It's those SNP supporting students.TOPPING said:
Very much looking forward to reading it; thanks for the link. Enjoyed also this eat, shoots and leaves part of your biog...JamesM said:Afternoon all.
Osborne's figures today are exactly the kind of half-truths I highlight in my most recent personal blog post. Indeed it has taken me plenty of time and much thinking but I have declared for 'Vote Leave' today. I elaborate my thinking here: www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave - hope the post makes sense, even if you don't share my analysis!
I was a Data Analyst at the Centre for Studies in Terrorism and Political Violence in St Andrews, Scotland (2004-05)0 -
You absolutely must go, and in a calm, collected and courteous manner (your default I'm sure) illustrate to anyone who asks you why staying in the EU is the wrong decision for Britain. If you're feeling brave you could spear Mandelson with a difficult question, but that's not necessary.Casino_Royale said:Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
Leavers need to show by their actions that it is possible to oppose our membership of the EU without being an Express-reading, xenophobic knuckle-dragger.
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And it is that party loyalty which blinds you to other far more serious dangers facing the country. It is a fault shared by many party loyalists of all colours and is a blight on our political landscape.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do consider a conservative government as essential for the CountryRichard_Tyndall said:
I know you don't see it this way but for me as socially liberal former Tory activist that sentence does very much strike me as putting party before countryBig_G_NorthWales said:
As a conservative member I am very annoyed with both sides as the Country having a conservative government is far more important to me than remaining in or leaving the EUSouthamObserver said:We'll get eight weeks of the Tories shouting at each other. Then Dave either loses and stands down and the shouting starts again over his successor and the Brexit negotiations, or Remain wins and he stays and the Leavers shout Betrayal at every opportunity. With a wafer thin majority this is not going away until 2020 at the earliest. Meanwhile most people in the country will look on bemused, at best, or increasingly furious at worst.
One thing you have to consider us that no matter how much you might wish it we will have another Labour Government in the future and they could do far less damage to us outside the EU than still in it.0 -
As I mentioned before, a big spike in volume equals Leave odds going up.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7220833566163517440 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3jk_wd7BykIndigo said:
I don't think Dave is going to let her keep quiet much longer, the signs of her being pushed forward are in today's papers.LadyBucket said:Some of her colleagues are making complete fools of themselves re their comments about the EU referendum and their comments will be hung round their necks forever.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/17/theresa-may-to-get-enhanced-role-in-eu-referendum-to-win-over-wa/0 -
Corbyn showing his man of the people credentials
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/labour-sneers-at-mcdonalds-then-wonders-why-the-public-doesnt-li/The fast food giant had offered Labour £30,000 for the privilege of staging an “interactive experience” in support of British farmers and producers. The Tories and the SNP have already welcomed them with open wallets; Labour has delivered a big McNo.
But then again they have a vegetarian, anti-American leader now. You could drive a entire team of coaches and horses between the Labour leadership and their traditional voters.0 -
A bus has exploded in Jerusalem:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36075442
Quite why the BBC felt the need for inverted commas around the word blast is beyond me. I do wonder if they get paid every time they manage to crowbar them into a headline.0 -
Apologies if this has already been linked to, but here's an article on the backgrounds of the Conservative MPs who have backed Remain and Leave:
http://blog.politics.ox.ac.uk/conservative-mps-back-brexit-not/
Something in here for everyone's prejudices.0 -
As I am not into betting, and forgive my ignorance, but is that good or bad for leaveSpeedy said:As I mentioned before, a big spike in volume equals Leave odds going up.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7220833566163517440 -
I take your point in the case of the EU Brussels elite, but it's a mistake to regard the EU as comprising only or even mostly that group. It's not a homogenous organisation with a fixed political purpose, it's a mish-mash of bureaucrats, technocrats, ideologues/visionaries (take your pick as to which term you prefer!), MEPs with widely varying agendas, and most important of all, 28 governments looking after their own interests and worried about their domestic politics. It's amongst the last group in particular (which is where the power ultimately lies) that I think the mood has changed, as a result of the Eurozone crisis and the migrant crisis.Richard_Tyndall said:I honestly believe the EU sees it very differently to you. Any sort of Yes vote will be taken as a very clear sign of agreement with the ongoing EU project and we will start to see more and more decisions taken which would previously have been considered impossible whilst wanting to keep the UK on board.
It at take a year or so but you will have to revisit some of your assumptions and views fairly quickly in the case of a Yes vote. Not least because it will be pretty fundamental for the survival of the Eurozone that more EU control is exercised over the City of London.
On your second point, yes, I agree that that is a key issue, but then I think it would be a key issue in an EEA-style deal as well.0 -
The LEAVE campaign has succeeded in keeping FArage very much in the background and the immigration issue also in the background.
If needed this might be used as a killer punch by LEAVE near the end of the campaign.0 -
Thanks for all the advice peeps.
I will keep it under consideration and reflect. My firm is unusual (family run) and the two that run it made a speech to all the staff at Christmas where they referenced the EU and said that they wondered what the result would be next year, and then 'nodded' to everyone in the room.
Even that made me uncomfortable.
I am likely to be in a highly emotional and febrile state 10 days out from the vote. If I turn out to be found out as the token Leaver in the room, I'm not sure I could take all the barracking, and having all my future potential business contacts soured. I might may forever more labelled as the Leaver and this is my future career in the industry, here.
I may be better use to Vote Leave out on the streets ;-)
But thank you all anyway. I will have a think.
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Good for Leave in the betting markets, they are now at the highest point ever.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I am not into betting, and forgive my ignorance, but is that good or bad for leaveSpeedy said:As I mentioned before, a big spike in volume equals Leave odds going up.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/7220833566163517440 -
@casino
Its not easy being a minority in a large group of enthusiastic people, you'll get angry and frustrated if you're not careful. If you approach it in a light hearted manner you'll be fine, just don't expect to change anybody's mind.
From a personal point of view watching Mandelson address supporters would be vomit inducing, but everything we do is beneficial one way or another, if only harden to confirm your position.0 -
@Topping
Very much looking forward to reading it; thanks for the link. Enjoyed also this eat, shoots and leaves part of your biog...
I was a Data Analyst at the Centre for Studies in Terrorism and Political Violence in St Andrews, Scotland (2004-05)
--> Good spot. Let me emphasise that we were not researching the security situation in St Andrews!!0 -
This above all: to thine own self be true,Casino_Royale said:Thanks for all the advice peeps.
I will keep it under consideration and reflect. My firm is unusual (family run) and the two that run it made a speech to all the staff at Christmas where they referenced the EU and said that they wondered what the result would be next year, and then 'nodded' to everyone in the room.
Even that made me uncomfortable.
I am likely to be in a highly emotional and febrile state 10 days out from the vote. If I turn out to be found out as the token Leaver in the room, I'm not sure I could take all the barracking, and having all my future potential business contacts soured. I might may forever more labelled as the Leaver and this is my future career in the industry, here.
I may be better use to Vote Leave out on the streets ;-)
But thank you all anyway. I will have a think.
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.0 -
I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.Casino_Royale said:Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.
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Poor old George is rumbled again:
http://order-order.com/2016/04/18/osbornes-equations-from-long-discredited-model/
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Utah - Dan Jones Associates/Utah Policy
Clinton 38 .. Trump 38
Clinton 26 .. Cruz 67
Clinton 23 .. Kasich 68
Sanders 49 .. Trump 35
Sanders 32 .. Cruz 63
Sanders 30 .. Kasich 64
http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-0 -
Find a higher-priority commitment. Stuff does happen, to everyone.Casino_Royale said:Thanks for all the advice peeps.
I will keep it under consideration and reflect. My firm is unusual (family run) and the two that run it made a speech to all the staff at Christmas where they referenced the EU and said that they wondered what the result would be next year, and then 'nodded' to everyone in the room.
Even that made me uncomfortable.
I am likely to be in a highly emotional and febrile state 10 days out from the vote. If I turn out to be found out as the token Leaver in the room, I'm not sure I could take all the barracking, and having all my future potential business contacts soured. I might may forever more labelled as the Leaver and this is my future career in the industry, here.
I may be better use to Vote Leave out on the streets ;-)
But thank you all anyway. I will have a think.0 -
Glad to hear it!!JamesM said:@Topping
Very much looking forward to reading it; thanks for the link. Enjoyed also this eat, shoots and leaves part of your biog...
I was a Data Analyst at the Centre for Studies in Terrorism and Political Violence in St Andrews, Scotland (2004-05)
--> Good spot. Let me emphasise that we were not researching the security situation in St Andrews!!
I read the piece and, I take a different view. I don't necessarily see the urgency of addressing a democratic deficit and it certainly doesn't feel to me as though I am being denied the opportunity to change those who rule us. Two examples are Tony Blair's election victory in 2005 - after the Iraq War and the perfect opportunity for the electorate to register its distaste; and 2015 (and 2010) and UKIP. If we really wanted to leave the EU we could have voted for UKIP. Oh but for sure UKIP were and are a hopeless single-issue pressure group with not another sensible policy in their manifesto, but the option was there.
The piece also had a touch of the "I wouldn't have started from here" about it. We are a member of this club which has grown significantly in scope and reach over the past few decades. I know we go round in circles on here about EEA/EFTA/WTO/etc, but this is important. Are the alternatives we are likely to get a clear improvement, at the cost, than what we have today? I think a piece about leaving which doesn't express a basic view of what we should do instead of EU membership is somehow lacking.
But I am being over-critical: it is a good piece, coherent and a good and sensible reason for voting Leave. Good luck! Especially with your day job as it sounds critical in the world we live in today.0 -
Their "college of journalism" really needs to look into getting some "better" tutors.Morris_Dancer said:A bus has exploded in Jerusalem:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36075442
Quite why the BBC felt the need for inverted commas around the word blast is beyond me. I do wonder if they get paid every time they manage to crowbar them into a headline.0 -
I am being true to myself, but discretion is often the better part of valour. That's why I don't post under my real name here - I am a salaried man, not a partner or business owner in my own right.RoyalBlue said:
This above all: to thine own self be true,Casino_Royale said:Thanks for all the advice peeps.
I will keep it under consideration and reflect. My firm is unusual (family run) and the two that run it made a speech to all the staff at Christmas where they referenced the EU and said that they wondered what the result would be next year, and then 'nodded' to everyone in the room.
Even that made me uncomfortable.
I am likely to be in a highly emotional and febrile state 10 days out from the vote. If I turn out to be found out as the token Leaver in the room, I'm not sure I could take all the barracking, and having all my future potential business contacts soured. I might may forever more labelled as the Leaver and this is my future career in the industry, here.
I may be better use to Vote Leave out on the streets ;-)
But thank you all anyway. I will have a think.
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.
One should always be very careful about bringing politics and religion into business, particularly if you rely on those who may disagree with you very strongly for your sustenance.0 -
I think Cyclefree's advice is good. In general it's best to keep politics separate from family and colleagues in my opinion - you only have one set of each, whom you need to get on with indefinitely, and it's really unlikely that if you persuaded every one of them of anything it would change the outcome. (My parents were Tories when I was a communist - we amiably agreed to tolerate each other but it would have been sad if we had fallen out over it.)Cyclefree said:
I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.Casino_Royale said:Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.
If you say you're going more to listen than to speak and will finally decide on the day after hearing all the arguments, that's fair enough - after all, there must be an 0.000001% chance that you would in fact be persuaded by some new argument, and if not, at least it'll be an interesting event. Mandelson, while not everyone's favourite person, is always interesting - he won't be a boilerplate slogan speaker.0 -
You would have thought the first thing a sensible hack would have done is gone on Google scholar & looked at the "cited by" papers. But alas not.nigel4england said:Poor old George is rumbled again:
http://order-order.com/2016/04/18/osbornes-equations-from-long-discredited-model/0 -
Lord Hill gave a speech recently explaining why he is in favour of remaining in the EU:
http://www.debrige.de/assets/files/brexit/lord_hill_66th_kw_conference.pdf
Worth a read, even by those who will disagree with every word.0 -
Thank God. Something not EU-related.Morris_Dancer said:Just researching Popper (for reasons I won't bore you with), and came across this nice bit, which is applicable to modern society:
"Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened. In The Open Society and Its Enemies, he argued..."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper
In a similar vein there is a very good article in Saturday's Times by Agnes Poirier, a French journalist. She writes about a play at the NT "Another World" and talks about the "deep neurosis at the heart of liberal Europe", a narrative which she says weakens our democracies.
This quote will suffice:-
"By naming things wrongly we add to the misfortunes of the world," wrote Albert Camus. The European left would have us believe that any criticism of religious belief....... amounts to racism and Islamophobia. This cuts short any kind of debate. Liberals so want to appear open-minded, generous and understanding of radical Islamists that they have rationalised terror and invented reasons to exonerate home-grown jihadists. ..... [this] ..... means a criminal lack of lucidity when it comes to confronting reality."
This is just the latest version of an old reality as your Karl Popper quote shows.
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You are in effect saying that in order to effect change under the current system you have to be so monomaniacal in your belief in that particular issue that you are prepared to inflict 5 years of someone completely ballsing up your country in order to achieve it, and that 12million voters have to be similar obsessive.TOPPING said:I read the piece and, I take a different view. I don't necessarily see the urgency of addressing a democratic deficit and it certainly doesn't feel to me as though I am being denied the opportunity to change those who rule us. Two examples are Tony Blair's election victory in 2005 - after the Iraq War and the perfect opportunity for the electorate to register its distaste; and 2015 (and 2010) and UKIP. If we really wanted to leave the EU we could have voted for UKIP. Oh but for sure UKIP were and are a hopeless single-issue pressure group with not another sensible policy in their manifesto, but the option was there.
Putting it another way if you have two moderate charismatic leaders without much difference between them, let's call them Dave and Tony, then you might feel inclined to move from one to the other because of a particular issue that bothered you. If the choice was a moderate charismatic leader, and the other, to take an example out of thin air, a marxist tit in a beard, you probably would not shift from the former to the later, even if you were a die hard supporter and he was the only person offering your preference. There comes a time when the instant cost appears too high and you wait for a better opportunity, but in a FPTP system at pretty much never happens.
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Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Trump 41 .. Kasich 26 .. Cruz 23
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html0 -
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In HM Government (2013),FrancisUrquhart said:
You would have thought the first thing a sensible hack would have done is gone on Google scholar & looked at the "cited by" papers. But alas not.nigel4england said:Poor old George is rumbled again:
http://order-order.com/2016/04/18/osbornes-equations-from-long-discredited-model/
4
gravity models
were used to estimate the impact of a potential new international border (the ‘border effect’)
on trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK.0 -
Cruz definitely seems to have been waning recently.JackW said:Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Trump 41 .. Kasich 26 .. Cruz 23
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html0 -
Your 1 in 10^8 chance... I'm completely undecided here, and I think that there's a very good chance indeed that I may be persuaded by the arguments presented.NickPalmer said:
I think Cyclefree's advice is good. In general it's best to keep politics separate from family and colleagues in my opinion - you only have one set of each, whom you need to get on with indefinitely, and it's really unlikely that if you persuaded every one of them of anything it would change the outcome. (My parents were Tories when I was a communist - we amiably agreed to tolerate each other but it would have been sad if we had fallen out over it.)Cyclefree said:
I would go because I think such occasions can be interesting, it is always useful to hear what those who are on the opposite side of you in an argument have to say and you can learn an awful lot by listening and asking a few questions rather than speaking.Casino_Royale said:Off topic - my firm (led by ardent Remainers) have invited me along to an event on 14th June at Westminster Abbey where the guest speaker is Peter Mandelson, who will be "sharing his thoughts" on the Europe debate.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
But if you really don't want to go, an alternative social / family engagement is the way to decline politely.
If you say you're going more to listen than to speak and will finally decide on the day after hearing all the arguments, that's fair enough - after all, there must be an 0.000001% chance that you would in fact be persuaded by some new argument, and if not, at least it'll be an interesting event. Mandelson, while not everyone's favourite person, is always interesting - he won't be a boilerplate slogan speaker.
Why, NP, have you gone from a rational sort of person to a lesser sort?
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Not really. Supporters outnumber opponents by 2 to 1, and support for the anti-EU Sweden Democrats has been falling steadily - they've lost a quarter of their support since December (http://www.svd.se/sd-har-slutat-skicka-valjare-till-m-och-s).weejonnie said:0 -
FWIW one of the critics of these models (Deardorff) is one of the foremost experts on the economics of international trade.FrancisUrquhart said:
You would have thought the first thing a sensible hack would have done is gone on Google scholar & looked at the "cited by" papers. But alas not.nigel4england said:Poor old George is rumbled again:
http://order-order.com/2016/04/18/osbornes-equations-from-long-discredited-model/0 -
I've just read that - deeply unimpressed.AlastairMeeks said:Lord Hill gave a speech recently explaining why he is in favour of remaining in the EU:
http://www.debrige.de/assets/files/brexit/lord_hill_66th_kw_conference.pdf
Worth a read, even by those who will disagree with every word.
There's absolutely nothing new there, and it rehearses every cliche we've heard so far.
I suppose that's what you'd expect from an EU Commissioner.
But, still, hardly as billed. Disappointing.0 -
New York Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 55, Kasich 21, Cruz 18 Trump +34 => another result that would give Trump a good result tomorrow.Pulpstar said:
Cruz definitely seems to have been waning recently.JackW said:Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Trump 41 .. Kasich 26 .. Cruz 23
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html
Incidentally do we know anyone reporting CD by CD? Otherwise we could set up a spreadsheet and do it ourselves?
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On that Treasury report:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?siteedition=uk#axzz46CA7tLiR
"The report has its strengths and weaknesses but officials may even have erred on the side of caution"0 -
What is your definition of rational?Omnium said:
Why, NP, have you gone from a rational sort of person to a lesser sort?0 -
Stranger things have happened.Scott_P said://twitter.com/damiangreenmp/status/722093908315004928
'How MI6 pushed Britain to join Europe'
http://www.cambridgeclarion.org/press_cuttings/mi6.eu_stel_27apr1997.html
And it's not as if US doesn't has a history of meddling in European politics. Look at the various 'Stay behind' networks such as Operation Gladio for a few pointers.0 -
I just had a shock when I saw a BMG poll showing Remain ahead by 55/35%.
But, then I saw it was for Scotland.0 -
But then again they have a vegetarian, anti-American leader now. You could drive a entire team of coaches and horses between the Labour leadership and their traditional voters.Indigo said:Corbyn showing his man of the people credentials
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/labour-sneers-at-mcdonalds-then-wonders-why-the-public-doesnt-li/The fast food giant had offered Labour £30,000 for the privilege of staging an “interactive experience” in support of British farmers and producers. The Tories and the SNP have already welcomed them with open wallets; Labour has delivered a big McNo.
I think it's remarkable. Imagine it - a political leader who turns down the chance to trouser £30,000 from a big corporate. McDonald's have been peddling poison dressed as food for decades; I for one am not falling down with gratitude because they're internationalising their business model and serving some homegrown spuds.0 -
I'm wondering if some sort of "vow" will come out before the vote - the playbook by HMG is a complete crib of the Scotland game !AlastairMeeks said:On that Treasury report:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?siteedition=uk#axzz46CA7tLiR
"The report has its strengths and weaknesses but officials may even have erred on the side of caution"0 -
Evening all,
Just catching up. Seems all guns are blazing on EU.0 -
Miss Cyclefree, it's a depressing irony that tolerance is being used as a pretext for shutting down debate about very serious issues.0
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Breitbart spin.NickPalmer said:
Not really. Supporters outnumber opponents by 2 to 1, and support for the anti-EU Sweden Democrats has been falling steadily - they've lost a quarter of their support since December (http://www.svd.se/sd-har-slutat-skicka-valjare-till-m-och-s).weejonnie said:
At least they're consistent.0 -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Map_of_New_York's_congressional_districts_from_2013_to_2022.pngTheWhiteRabbit said:
New York Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 55, Kasich 21, Cruz 18 Trump +34 => another result that would give Trump a good result tomorrow.Pulpstar said:
Cruz definitely seems to have been waning recently.JackW said:Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Trump 41 .. Kasich 26 .. Cruz 23
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html
Incidentally do we know anyone reporting CD by CD? Otherwise we could set up a spreadsheet and do it ourselves?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_congressional_districts0 -
Mr. Rottenborough, not all. Some of us are tutting at the BBC's chronic abuse of inverted commas, and admiring the quotes of Karl Popper.0
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@Topping
Many thanks for your feedback.
I think you hit the nail on the head re. UKIP well, they are a single issue party and thus their potency in electoral terms is more limited.
The referendum is asking me to decide whether I want to remain in or leave the EU so I sought to elaborate my decision on that decision specifically in this post. I have considered alternatives (as have been discussed in detail on this website) and I am of the belief there will be a specific UK deal post-Brexit eventually. I also believe there will definitely be membership of EFTA so the UK will have some element of free trade to build from.
Thanks for the best wishes re. my job. Maritime Security research certainly keeps me busy!
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Oh, I dunno. Much like you used to be really - refreshingly straightforwards. Grounded.NickPalmer said:
What is your definition of rational?Omnium said:
Why, NP, have you gone from a rational sort of person to a lesser sort?
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Well, yes - obviously you can build one based on counties. What I mean is, do we know if any source will do that for us.Pulpstar said:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Map_of_New_York's_congressional_districts_from_2013_to_2022.pngTheWhiteRabbit said:
New York Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 55, Kasich 21, Cruz 18 Trump +34 => another result that would give Trump a good result tomorrow.Pulpstar said:
Cruz definitely seems to have been waning recently.JackW said:Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Trump 41 .. Kasich 26 .. Cruz 23
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html
Incidentally do we know anyone reporting CD by CD? Otherwise we could set up a spreadsheet and do it ourselves?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_congressional_districts0 -
One of my favourite quotes is by Edmund Burke:-NickPalmer said:
What is your definition of rational?Omnium said:
Why, NP, have you gone from a rational sort of person to a lesser sort?
"Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part."
We like to think of ourselves as rational but emotion plays a far greater part in our decision making than most of us are prepared to admit.
Hence the Remain campaign.
"No power so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear."
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Disappointed I missed the Popper debate.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rottenborough, not all. Some of us are tutting at the BBC's chronic abuse of inverted commas, and admiring the quotes of Karl Popper.
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Judging by previous form, no I don't think anyone will.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Well, yes - obviously you can build one based on counties. What I mean is, do we know if any source will do that for us.Pulpstar said:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Map_of_New_York's_congressional_districts_from_2013_to_2022.pngTheWhiteRabbit said:
New York Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 55, Kasich 21, Cruz 18 Trump +34 => another result that would give Trump a good result tomorrow.Pulpstar said:
Cruz definitely seems to have been waning recently.JackW said:Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Trump 41 .. Kasich 26 .. Cruz 23
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-republican-presidential-poll-20160415-story.html
Incidentally do we know anyone reporting CD by CD? Otherwise we could set up a spreadsheet and do it ourselves?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_congressional_districts
I might knock upa spreadsheet
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Found possibly the only person in Britain who thinks Osborne could err on the side of caution!AlastairMeeks said:On that Treasury report:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?siteedition=uk#axzz46CA7tLiR
"The report has its strengths and weaknesses but officials may even have erred on the side of caution"0 -
If we did vote remain, can you I magine us being awarded either the Commission or Council presidencies after this? I suspect the while exercise has soured relations for a while.0
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It is indeed. Though it is fear, masquerading as tolerance, which is responsible for shutting down a debate about very serious issues, in many ways more serious than some of the endless toing and froing about the referendum.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, it's a depressing irony that tolerance is being used as a pretext for shutting down debate about very serious issues.
**Tiptoes quietly away**
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ICM phone poll Con 38%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%. Remain 54%, Leave 46%.
ICM online poll Con 36%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16. Remain 50%, Leave 50%.0 -
Mr. Rottenborough, debate may be stretching it
This was the relevant bit:
"Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper0 -
Can't though can they, as it's not theirs to vow. They can put together a package of things to do unilaterally, but that would beg the question why hadn't they done that before.Pulpstar said:
I'm wondering if some sort of "vow" will come out before the vote - the playbook by HMG is a complete crib of the Scotland game !AlastairMeeks said:On that Treasury report:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?siteedition=uk#axzz46CA7tLiR
"The report has its strengths and weaknesses but officials may even have erred on the side of caution"0 -
There's a rota - unless it's LEAVE there won't be any impactRobD said:If we did vote remain, can you I magine us being awarded either the Commission or Council presidencies after this? I suspect the while exercise has soured relations for a while.
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This video changes everything: voteleave.co.uk - surpassing the Ukippers, imo0
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How do you enforce a rota on a position for which there is an election (de facto)CarlottaVance said:
There's a rota - unless it's LEAVE there won't be any impactRobD said:If we did vote remain, can you I magine us being awarded either the Commission or Council presidencies after this? I suspect the while exercise has soured relations for a while.
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Those ICM polls are truly appalling for Labour.0
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Not sure the working class Labour voting man in the streets will see it in quite those terms, it will just confirm his suspicions that the new leader is a bit metropolitan and weird for his tastes, and that sitting on the sofa next election looks better and better as time goes by.Luckyguy1983 said:I think it's remarkable. Imagine it - a political leader who turns down the chance to trouser £30,000 from a big corporate. McDonald's have been peddling poison dressed as food for decades; I for one am not falling down with gratitude because they're internationalising their business model and serving some homegrown spuds.
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https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/722098420807245825RobD said:
What were the values with DKs?Sean_F said:ICM phone poll Con 38%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%. Remain 54%, Leave 46%.
ICM online poll Con 36%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16. Remain 50%, Leave 50%.0 -
I try, though I feel a bit more free these days. I don't think I'm being especially hysterical or anything - just more left-wing and less willing to settle for quarter-measures than I used to be.Omnium said:
Oh, I dunno. Much like you used to be really - refreshingly straightforwards. Grounded.NickPalmer said:
What is your definition of rational?Omnium said:
Why, NP, have you gone from a rational sort of person to a lesser sort?
New polls (54-46 Remain by phone, 50-50 online) and an interesting discussion here:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/apr/18/eu-referendum-osborne-treasury-brexit-will-cost-families-4300-a-year-politics-live
By implication the figures for party allegiance have been heavily tweaked to allow for the sample and the turnout assumptions. I can't quite make out from the report whether the same tweaks were made for the Europe question, which is pretty crucial. If as the quotes suggest they've just taken a pro-Labour phone sample and applied it untweaked for the EU question, that's very silly and casts seriuos doubt on the phone outcome. But why would they do that? Can others make sense of it?
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Indeed. But the £4300 prognostication was not from the gravity model they presented in the mocked equations (which are as Patrick Minford said of dubious value) but from the National Institute's General Equilibrium Model (NiGEM).runnymede said:
FWIW one of the critics of these models (Deardorff) is one of the foremost experts on the economics of international trade.FrancisUrquhart said:
You would have thought the first thing a sensible hack would have done is gone on Google scholar & looked at the "cited by" papers. But alas not.nigel4england said:Poor old George is rumbled again:
http://order-order.com/2016/04/18/osbornes-equations-from-long-discredited-model/
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OGH continues his delight at potential Tory infighting and his advice to Leave to "undermine" Cameron.0
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Translation: officials could have ramped up the nasty numbers even further,AlastairMeeks said:On that Treasury report:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c15cd060-0550-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?siteedition=uk#axzz46CA7tLiR
"The report has its strengths and weaknesses but officials may even have erred on the side of caution"
but they didn't think they'd be believed.0 -
It's a puzzle- if it was the other way round the old "oldies aren't on the Internet- hence the lower LEAVE vote". (And conversely pro REMAIN youngsters are) could be trotted out.....but it's the wrong way round for that....Sean_F said:ICM phone poll Con 38%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%. Remain 54%, Leave 46%.
ICM online poll Con 36%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16. Remain 50%, Leave 50%.0 -
One for TSE I reckon - Never Gonna Give EU UpTissue_Price said:This video changes everything: voteleave.co.uk - surpassing the Ukippers, imo
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I would have thought DKs will break more towards status quo.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/722098420807245825RobD said:
What were the values with DKs?Sean_F said:ICM phone poll Con 38%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%. Remain 54%, Leave 46%.
ICM online poll Con 36%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16. Remain 50%, Leave 50%.0 -
ICM Phone poll (changes in bracket)
Con 38 (+2)
Lab 33 (-3)
LD 7 (-1)
UKIP 13 (+2)
Greens 3 (nc)0 -
Maybe, depends what deal was done over the port and cigars at the end of the last EU renegotiation meeting. Its not impossible Cameron has a few Eurosweeties to offer his ministers to get them onside, or as alternative careers if they burn their boats on the campaign. IMF job for Osborne for example (yes yes I know the IMF isn't part of the EU).RobD said:If we did vote remain, can you I magine us being awarded either the Commission or Council presidencies after this? I suspect the while exercise has soured relations for a while.
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Wind the clock forwards 5 years - what does 2021 look like politically?
I have no clue whatsoever. I don't think it's Corbyn, I don't think it's Boris.
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Not too bad for Scotland.Sean_F said:
I just had a shock when I saw a BMG poll showing Remain ahead by 55/35%.
But, then I saw it was for Scotland.0 -
The piece I was planning to run yesterday was headlined 'Never Gonna Give EU Up - Why it might be in the best interests of the Tory Party for Remain to win'Tissue_Price said:
One for TSE I reckon - Never Gonna Give EU UpTissue_Price said:This video changes everything: voteleave.co.uk - surpassing the Ukippers, imo
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Break toward their sofa more likely.. DK -> DNVRobD said:
I would have thought DKs will break more towards status quo.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/722098420807245825RobD said:
What were the values with DKs?Sean_F said:ICM phone poll Con 38%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%. Remain 54%, Leave 46%.
ICM online poll Con 36%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16. Remain 50%, Leave 50%.0 -
Prime Minister Matt Hancock is still basking in his landslide general election landslide victory in 2020.Omnium said:Wind the clock forwards 5 years - what does 2021 look like politically?
I have no clue whatsoever. I don't think it's Corbyn, I don't think it's Boris.0 -
So you're saying that if Leave wins it'll be a case of "I'll Be Missing EU"?TheScreamingEagles said:
The piece I was planning to run yesterday was headlined 'Never Gonna Give EU Up - Why it might be in the best interests of the Tory Party for Remain to win'Tissue_Price said:
One for TSE I reckon - Never Gonna Give EU UpTissue_Price said:This video changes everything: voteleave.co.uk - surpassing the Ukippers, imo
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Yup.Tissue_Price said:
So you're saying that if Leave wins it'll be a case of "I'll Be Missing EU"?TheScreamingEagles said:
The piece I was planning to run yesterday was headlined 'Never Gonna Give EU Up - Why it might be in the best interests of the Tory Party for Remain to win'Tissue_Price said:
One for TSE I reckon - Never Gonna Give EU UpTissue_Price said:This video changes everything: voteleave.co.uk - surpassing the Ukippers, imo
I've also got 'Stuck In The Middle With EU' lined up0 -
The Dow Jones touched 18,000 today, highest since last July.
If the global economy doom and gloom is not as bad as expected, I wonder how that will play into the debate for the next two months.0 -
Blimey. Think I'll go back to my Albert Camus and John Paul Sartre.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rottenborough, debate may be stretching it
This was the relevant bit:
"Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper0 -
If the tables were reversed every strategist in Leave.eu would running a Project Fear campaign. Indeed, they are attempting to, with fear of migration.Cyclefree said:
One of my favourite quotes is by Edmund Burke:-NickPalmer said:
What is your definition of rational?Omnium said:
Why, NP, have you gone from a rational sort of person to a lesser sort?
"Politics ought to be adjusted not to human reasonings but to human nature, of which reason is but a part and by no means the greatest part."
We like to think of ourselves as rational but emotion plays a far greater part in our decision making than most of us are prepared to admit.
Hence the Remain campaign.
"No power so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear."0 -
In GEs DK's are DNVsRobD said:
I would have thought DKs will break more towards status quo.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/722098420807245825RobD said:
What were the values with DKs?Sean_F said:ICM phone poll Con 38%, Lab 33%, UKIP 13%. Remain 54%, Leave 46%.
ICM online poll Con 36%, Lab 31%, UKIP 16. Remain 50%, Leave 50%.
But in the Indyref they got out and backed status quo.
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EU are having a laugh!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.Tissue_Price said:
So you're saying that if Leave wins it'll be a case of "I'll Be Missing EU"?TheScreamingEagles said:
The piece I was planning to run yesterday was headlined 'Never Gonna Give EU Up - Why it might be in the best interests of the Tory Party for Remain to win'Tissue_Price said:
One for TSE I reckon - Never Gonna Give EU UpTissue_Price said:This video changes everything: voteleave.co.uk - surpassing the Ukippers, imo
I've also got 'Stuck In The Middle With EU' lined up0 -
With Labour and the LibDems in such a shockingly moribund state, the Tories have to do their civic duty - and form the opposition too.perdix said:OGH continues his delight at potential Tory infighting and his advice to Leave to "undermine" Cameron.
Come the General Election, the Tories will still be united behind a single aim - to stay in power.0
