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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to the Tories should hope that June 23rd

A party at war is pretty sight if you are not a supporter. The way this first Monday of the official referendum campaign has gone isn’t doing the Tories any favours and it is going to go on and on.
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That will prolong the fun.
No, it wont resolve it, any more than it settled it in Scotland. All he has done is brought the divisions out into the open. He was one of the first to start the abuse with "Fruitcakes, Loonies and Closet Racists", who goes around comes around - shame.
Defence of man who beheaded his wife: he only meant to "slap her around a bit".
http://news.sky.com/story/1680636/husband-jailed-for-life-for-beheading-wife
I’m sure that Cameron and his team regard the next eight weeks of party in-fighting is a small price to pay to resolving an issue that has so divided the party since the summer of 1992.
Precisely so. If Cameron can put this issue to bed (admittedly this might be a big 'if'), it will be a major, major political achievement, both in terms of party politics and the wider political picture. Furthermore, the current battles, and the current economic uncertainty leading up to the referendum, are a price which had to be paid at some time.
I admire your optimism. I;m afraid the campaign is starting to acquire an element of rancour to it that didn't need to be there. I suspect Cameron will heal very little and will be glad when he's out of politics.
That'll go down well in Scotland, Wales and NI
#bbcdp
@Cat_Headley: It would be wrong to say that this sums up all #Brexitters,but it certainly sums up a certain type of Brexitter... https://t.co/Djd7padrti
Last time the people running no2AV went after Clegg.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=election+leaflets+AV+campaign&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjoptvfrpjMAhWC7iYKHeLNARAQsAQITw&biw=1696&bih=799&dpr=1.13#imgrc=dmWxy0XhuDs7dM:
That's just as true the other way round. For example when Beefy came out for Brexit the other day he had to endure slurry from Remainers about his adulterous past and insinuations that he's not very bright. Strangely there was no mention of his Ashes heroics or indeed his numerous walks for charity etc. Both sides are as bad as each other on that score.
But very particular assumptions lie behind these "Final modelling results". I would question:
(1) the idea that leaving is like a negative exogenous shock to the level of technology "which is maintained as a permanent level shift until the end of the simulation. This shock temporarily reduces the growth rate of output of the UK economy." The shock could well positive – shaking off the numerous impediments, regulations, and misdirections we have from the EU, not to mention the membership tax.
(2) the idea that leaving necessarily implies "reduced openness to trade".
It also only works if the voluntary party accept it, which is the least likely of the lot, otherwise he gets the double whammy of losing lots of activists and still getting lots of eurosceptic MPs selected by his constituency parties.
So long as 72% of the country want less immigration, and that will probably get worse as the migrant number pick up after the referendum, the question hasn't gone away. If there is any islamic terror in London, it will be back in spades.
Its Chief Executive Matthew Elliott was turned down for a SPAD job in Govt when Cameron and Osborne gave in to the Lib Dems who opposed his appointment. The LDs were very upset with Elliott over the fact that his No2AV referendum campaign slaughtered their Yes campaign.
If we assume Brexit GDP growth at 2.05%, and Bremain growth at 2.5%, then you get to a GDP that's 45% bigger in nominal terms by 2030 for Bremain, and 36% bigger for Brexit ($4.126tn v. $3.862tn) This gives a net difference between the two in annual GDP of -6.4% in 2030.
So assuming we don't strike any new trade deals, change our trade patterns or deregulate to become globally competitive, the Treasury is saying that the price of Brexit, control of our laws, borders and policies is that the economy will only be 36% bigger rather than 45% bigger in 2030.
If Mrs May takes a leading role we could see the "100,000" promise butchered along with the new "3million more" which Osborne has signed up to?
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=election+leaflets+AV+campaign&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjoptvfrpjMAhWC7iYKHeLNARAQsAQITw&biw=1696&bih=799&dpr=1.13#imgrc=Xuz10dM4_tSH0M:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/the-government-is-doing-everything-in-its-power-to-rig-the-eu-re/
1. The EZ voting as a bloc, in ways that are detrimental to non EZ members. I could see the UK being told at that stage that if we want to sit at the top table, we need to be part of the EZ, or else just suck it up.
2. Immigration. It may be that immigration from the rest of the EU to the UK reaches levels that become intolerable; or that countries that are bearing the brunt of immigration from MENA attempt to put pressure on those that haven't, in order to share the burden.
3. Criminal justice. I think that the drive to try and harmonise criminal justice across the EU will be ongoing.
4. The EU budget. In general, we favour reducing it. Plenty of EU countries favour increasing it.
Now, even if we have absolute and binding guarantees and vetoes, it will still be us vs the EU.
"But warning people about the consequences for national security hasn’t proved to be strong enough a deterrent yet. So move on to the economy they must. The challenge for Osborne and his colleagues today is to stop the economic argument from becoming as bogged down as they feared it would."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/how-ministers-had-to-change-tack-in-the-eu-referendum-campaign/
That said, her comment seems reasonably nuanced and fair enough.
I have to say it looks quite good for my MP Theresa who is keeping her head down and could come out of this looking good while everyone else is covered in mud.
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/722046885842825216
TheScreamingEagles said:
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I sent you a vanilla message a few hours ago on this.
Be nice for all to know if it is utter tosh or which if any bits have any reality , I don't think a vanilla message to one person cuts the mustard.
But whilst it might be credible to say the UK economy would take a short term hit after Brexit whilst a deal was sorted, to suggest growth would be forever lower till the ends of time is pushing it.
Outside the EU our decisions and priorities would be different, and the effective on development of new technology and entrepreneurship could be extremely dynamic.
It's a view, I suppose.
They have booked a table, invited me as along it's a "fantastic networking event" but don't know I'm a Leaver.
I really don't think it's a good idea for me to go, especially barely 10 days before the vote. The subject is bound to come up around the table. I'm not sure I could keep my mouth shut.
What do pb'ers think? How would I politely turn it down without giving my views away?
Or go all 'Death and Glory', have a few drinks and indulge in heckling and bread roll throwing. Before a job search the next day, unless you can successfully claim to have been on medication that reacted badly with the 3 or so bottles of Red infuriator that you downed.
CR - You're a civil chap, go and enjoy the hospitality
But what if this does't shift the polls? What else has Project Fear now got left in its missile silos?
I'm thinking that maybe Osborne has gone too far, too soon.....
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It at take a year or so but you will have to revisit some of your assumptions and views fairly quickly in the case of a Yes vote. Not least because it will be pretty fundamental for the survival of the Eurozone that more EU control is exercised over the City of London.
Some of her colleagues are making complete fools of themselves re their comments about the EU referendum and their comments will be hung round their necks forever.
Remain couldn't have a better person speaking for them.
Osborne's figures today are exactly the kind of half-truths I highlight in my most recent personal blog post. Indeed it has taken me plenty of time and much thinking but I have declared for 'Vote Leave' today. I elaborate my thinking here: www.jamesmalcolm.com/voteleave - hope the post makes sense, even if you don't share my analysis!
"Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened. In The Open Society and Its Enemies, he argued..."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper
I was a Data Analyst at the Centre for Studies in Terrorism and Political Violence in St Andrews, Scotland (2004-05)
One thing you have to consider us that no matter how much you might wish it we will have another Labour Government in the future and they could do far less damage to us outside the EU than still in it.
Project Fear, better known as the Worldwide Global Conspiracy (c John Redwood) has plenty more missiles in their silos...
PS, can you lend me some tinfoil? Thanks.