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edited April 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We are now at Peak Bern

It’s a measure of how weak a candidate Hillary Clinton is that not only has she failed to swat away Bernie Sanders’ challenge for the nomination but three-fifths of the way through she’s still conceding ground to the septuagenarian socialist.

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  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    First - and I read the thread header!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    I feel the Bern on a daily basis... I have to walk past a giant poster like this on my way home from work each day :D

    http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/45/11/75/9740149/3/920x920.jpg
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    I'll confess... I stole Jeremy's tax return.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2016
    Barring a little local difficulty with emails, yes, Hillary should be home and dry.

    I'm not sure that the contest has done her harm, though. Perhaps her biggest weakness is the perception that she has a sense of entitlement to the presidency. The fact that she's had to slog her way through to the nomination should help mitigate that.
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    HRC demonstrating what a poor campaigner and politician she is though. Given Obama's comments at the weekend it does look like the Chicago politician will block the investigation into her, so expect a lot of disgruntled FBI leaks throughout the Presidential campaign.
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Virginia - Christopher Newport Uni

    Clinton 44 .. Trump 35

    http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/april 7 2016 report-final.pdf

    Virginia is one nominally purple state I'd expect Hillary to win, even if Trump can find his way to 270 with other states. Trending Democrat and the DC suburb republicans are not really Trumpsters.

    I'd expect Cruz to be similiarly crushed here too.
    Interesting to see, even at this early stage, Trump tying in PA and slashing the Dems previous 30 point gap in NY to 13.

    The Manafort effect.
    http://m.lasvegassun.com/news/2016/apr/09/trump-backers-flood-clark-county-gop-convention-ch/
    https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/04/10/trump-and-kasich-team-up-to-ambush-cruz-at-michigan-convention/
    http://fox59.com/2016/04/10/in-focus-trump-launches-indiana-campaign-team/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qw4P6W8ddiA
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    CHANNEL 4 NEWS REPORTER: AFGHANS FIGHTING BRITISH “OCCUPIERS” “THE REAL HEROES”

    http://order-order.com/2016/04/11/channel-4-news-reporter-afghans-fighting-british-occupiers-the-real-heroes/

    Pretty damning stuff...CH4 would never employ somebody who said similar things in relation to BNP or Britain First "protests" etc.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Seventh like Remain
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Surely there will come a point when she has a majority and that is that?

    I agree with Richard though. She is not a natural campaigner or public speaker. She needs to work at it and she has been forced to sharpen her message, improve her performances and weed out at least some of the incompetents in her team. None of this will do her any harm come November.

    And she has money to Berne.

    (Sorry)
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Must agree that Clinton's campaigns appear not to have been great. Barely beating a socialist in a two horse race* isn't impressive.

    *There was a third chap early on. Who had about 1% support...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited April 2016
    To play devil's advocate, has Hillary Clinton really done so badly? She seems to be fending off an insurgent, which is more than the Republican establishment have managed to do and is more than the Labour party establishment figures managed to do last year.

    Perhaps she's doing more right than she's being given credit for.
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Odd time in politics.

    I would not ever countenance voting for someone like Sanders or Corbyn, BUT there is definitely a mood in the air that there are too many very rich people doing obscenely well, and big corporations paying feck all tax.

    I will have missed it if it was discussed on here, but Matthew Parris had a decent column on Saturday in the Times saying (more or less) that the Zeitgeist was such that rich people and especially rich politicians are dangerously out of touch and it's but a small step from there to out of office too.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    edited April 2016
    I'd agree with every word of David's article:

    Incidentally here is what Bernie is on track to achieve according to the polls, and a reasonable demographic guess where there are none:

    NY 103
    Connecticut 18
    DC 0
    Delaware 7
    Maryland 31
    Pennsylvania 82
    Rhode Island 12
    Indiana 44
    Guam 5
    West Virginia 14
    Kentucky 10
    Oregon 39
    Virgin Islands 4
    Puerto Rico 29
    North Dakota 12
    California 215
    Montana 9
    New Jersey 39
    New Mexico 21
    South Dakota 13

    Total 1804

    Here's what he needs to finish head on pledged delegates according to my maths, polls and best guesses of demographics:

    NY 121 (He doesn't actually need to win :D )
    Connecticut 32
    DC 0 (Any delegates here will be a positive)
    Delaware 9
    Maryland 28 <- Bernie doing relatively well here compared to previous high black % southern states
    Pennsylvania 107
    Rhode Island 15
    Indiana 49
    Guam 5
    West Virginia 19
    Kentucky 35
    Oregon 42
    Virgin Islands 4
    Puerto Rico 32
    North Dakota 13
    California 300 !
    Montana 15
    New Jersey 66
    New Mexico 24
    South Dakota 14

    Total 2026 (HRC 2025) - Big win in California is the main hurdle to the model I think though...
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    #DraftMattSantos

    With Hillary, I expect a big swing to the Apathy Party.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Casino_Royale said:

    Seventh like Remain

    arf
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    RobD said:

    I feel the Bern on a daily basis... I have to walk past a giant poster like this on my way home from work each day :D

    http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/45/11/75/9740149/3/920x920.jpg

    I used to go past posters like this during the last election at Manchester Piccadilly

    https://goo.gl/Qqj0k0
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Sort of on topic, I wonder what turnout by Bernie's supporters will be if/when Hillary gets the nomination?

    A third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November's presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X60B3?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    edited April 2016
    JonCisBack said:

    Odd time in politics.

    I would not ever countenance voting for someone like Sanders or Corbyn, BUT there is definitely a mood in the air that there are too many very rich people doing obscenely well, and big corporations paying feck all tax.

    I will have missed it if it was discussed on here, but Matthew Parris had a decent column on Saturday in the Times saying (more or less) that the Zeitgeist was such that rich people and especially rich politicians are dangerously out of touch and it's but a small step from there to out of office too.

    That is a fair point. I pay a larger proportion of my income as tax than Google or Amazon or various Caffe companies and people much richer than me. Too much of the burden is being borne by too small a group.

    To be honest, I think rather than make this an issue of morality which gets us into unclear water (is behaving legally immoral? etc) it would be better to take a practical approach. If everyone is taxed a little we can (a) raise far more overall; and (b) it is fairer because everyone pays something. Whereas what we have now are far too many loopholes and exemptions and governments playing Whack-A-Mole with aggressive schemes and those in the middle being clobbered.

    The quid pro quo, though, is that the money raised has to be spent wisely and with a real sense that this is other people's money and therefore must not be wasted. People don't feel that this side of the bargain is being kept. Indeed, some feel that some politicians see it as a badge of honour to spend as much money as possible almost regardless of whether value for money is obtained.

    It's a bit chicken and egg but until politicians start remembering that the state is always spending other people's money and therefore has a duty to be efficient and sensible and wise in how it spends it and on what it will always be hard to persuade people that the state should take even more from you.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016
    Lol, the Telegraph is running a countdown timer

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/11/david-cameron-mps-tax-affairs-eu-referendum-brexit-leaflet-live/
    Time left for Jeremy Corbyn to find his tax return before David Cameron addresses MPs on his tax affairs
    00 : 00 : 22 : 03
    Days Hrs Mins Secs
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    edited April 2016
    Get a load of this !

    Stephen D Fisher: Chances of winning: 73% Remain
    Sam Wang: Probability of a Trump majority is 70%

    So the chance of a Trump-Remain double is just under Evens now at 51.1% !
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Barring a little local difficulty with emails, yes, Hillary should be home and dry.

    I'm not sure that the contest has done her harm, though. Perhaps her biggest weakness is the perception that she has a sense of entitlement to the presidency. The fact that she's had to slog her way through to the nomination should help mitigate that.

    Yes, I think that's right. The temperature has gone up a bit in the last week, but until now the primary season has been a model for the Democrats - civilised, issue-focused and no doubt about the willingness of the loser to back the winner. If it had been uncontested, Hillary would have had little publicity and some of the defences to potential attacks on her wouldn't have been tried out.

    The fact that the email stuff came so early has turned out to be helpful - it's now very stale, and if the FBI suddenly jumped out with an indictment they'd look ludicrously partial.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/719499339274592256
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    By the way, isn't it a bit odd that Number 10's spokeswoman has said that Osborne ought to publish his return? You'd think she'd leave it to him.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    Indigo said:

    Lol, the Telegraph is running a countdown timer

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/11/david-cameron-mps-tax-affairs-eu-referendum-brexit-leaflet-live/

    Time left for Jeremy Corbyn to find his tax return before David Cameron addresses MPs on his tax affairs
    00 : 00 : 22 : 03
    Days Hrs Mins Secs
    He'd better find it. Otherwise what should have been Corbyn's best week in politics since becoming leader may see him turned into a laughing stock.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    Bit more info on the people buying Tata Steel operation...
    Greybull was one of the co-investors, alongside OpCapita, in the electrical retailer Comet, which collapsed in 2012. The deal was controversial as the backers protected their investments partly by structuring their purchase using secured loans, rather than injecting the cash as equity, prompting the then coalition government to order an investigation into the chain’s demise. The report has yet to be published.

    A Greybull partner, Nathaniel Meyohas, refused to reveal if his firm’s latest investment took the form of a loan. He said: “We are structuring the deal in the standard format that you would expect us to having taken proper advice from tax advisers and lawyers.”

    New documents filed at Companies House show that the company acquiring the M Local stores is owned by another UK firm, which is in turn owned by an offshore company based in Jersey.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/09/former-secret-millionaire-heads-acquisition-of-morrisons-convenience-stores
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sort of on topic, I wonder what turnout by Bernie's supporters will be if/when Hillary gets the nomination?

    SCOTUS turns them out.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Cyclefree said:


    That is a fair point. I pay a larger proportion of my income as tax than Google or Amazon or various Caffe companies and people much richer than me. Too much of the burden is being borne by too small a group.

    I don't know about the other's but I don't believe Amazon has ever posted a profit even in the states. Bezos has been reinvesting pretty much every penny they make to grow his business which is how it's gone from nothing to the international colossus it is in 22 years.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-profits-what-people-dont-understand-2013-10
    Amazon is losing money because it's investing like crazy in fulfillment centers, and other expensive things to stay 100 steps ahead of the competition. Amazon has found that cheap, fast shipping leads to a big jump in sales, so it's investing in making that possible.

    Amazon could turn a profit today if it stopped investing. Wei says Amazon turns a profit on almost all transactions. It posts quarterly losses because of its massive investments. A lot of people think Amazon will eventually be profitable when it has a monopoly on e-commerce and starts raising prices. That's wrong, it just has to stop investing.
  • LadyBucket
    LadyBucket Posts: 590
    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.
  • David_Evershed
    David_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Jeremy Corbyn has delayed releasing his tax returns because he doesn't have a copy.

    He promised to publish the financial documents on Tuesday - six days ago - and has yet to do so.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    And the BBC and Guardian with THEIR offshore funds. Also it has been reported that the BBC and the Guardian are refusing to release the Panama files to the HMRC and if true is a disgrace
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    The probability of Hillary winning the Democratic nomination is 95% plus.

    Lay Bernie out on Betfair right now if you aren't already doing so imo (He was ~ 15.0 for POTUS last time I looked, far too short).
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    Indigo said:

    Cyclefree said:


    That is a fair point. I pay a larger proportion of my income as tax than Google or Amazon or various Caffe companies and people much richer than me. Too much of the burden is being borne by too small a group.

    I don't know about the other's but I don't believe Amazon has ever posted a profit even in the states. Bezos has been reinvesting pretty much every penny they make to grow his business which is how it's gone from nothing to the international colossus it is in 22 years.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-profits-what-people-dont-understand-2013-10
    Amazon is losing money because it's investing like crazy in fulfillment centers, and other expensive things to stay 100 steps ahead of the competition. Amazon has found that cheap, fast shipping leads to a big jump in sales, so it's investing in making that possible.

    Amazon could turn a profit today if it stopped investing. Wei says Amazon turns a profit on almost all transactions. It posts quarterly losses because of its massive investments. A lot of people think Amazon will eventually be profitable when it has a monopoly on e-commerce and starts raising prices. That's wrong, it just has to stop investing.

    This is correct. It is just lazy to lump Amazon in with some of the other companies, just because they have massive sales numbers. The one "dodge" they used to do was VAT, but that was shown to have resulted in lower prices for the consumer not higher profits for Amazon (obviously the knock on effect was being able to undercut other businesses). Again it was all about Amazon gaining market share, not making more money.

    Amazon have big dreams, big goals, flogging books is a tiny part of that e.g. AWS

    https://news.slashdot.org/story/16/04/07/2334254/jeff-bezos-aws-will-break-10-billion-this-year
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    David_Evershed said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has delayed releasing his tax returns because he doesn't have a copy.

    He promised to publish the financial documents on Tuesday - six days ago - and has yet to do so.

    If JC did his tax return online using HMRC online system then he should just be able to print it out.

    If an accountant did it, then they 100% would have a copy of it.

    Therefore the only likely possible outcome is that he did it on paper... and if he did..wow.. thats very very backward.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    I suspect Dave will hold back, employing a humbled-but-but-better-for-it mien generally and a not-angry-just-sad-and-disappointed one towards Labour particularly.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sort of on topic, I wonder what turnout by Bernie's supporters will be if/when Hillary gets the nomination?

    A third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November's presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X60B3?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

    How can the Republicans win?

    Go with Trump= lose.

    Go with someone else =Trumpers desert=lose

    ergo=lose
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Slackbladder said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Jeremy Corbyn has delayed releasing his tax returns because he doesn't have a copy.

    He promised to publish the financial documents on Tuesday - six days ago - and has yet to do so.

    If JC did his tax return online using HMRC online system then he should just be able to print it out.

    If an accountant did it, then they 100% would have a copy of it.

    Therefore the only likely possible outcome is that he did it on paper... and if he did..wow.. thats very very backward.
    Everything about Jezza is still stuck in the 70's...
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2016
    Slackbladder said:

    If JC did his tax return online using HMRC online system then he should just be able to print it out.

    If an accountant did it, then they 100% would have a copy of it.

    Therefore the only likely possible outcome is that he did it on paper... and if he did..wow.. thats very very backward.

    No, as we discussed on the previous thread, MPs have to file a paper return, because there's a special expenses section only for them and it's not implemented online.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    And the BBC and Guardian with THEIR offshore funds. Also it has been reported that the BBC and the Guardian are refusing to release the Panama files to the HMRC and if true is a disgrace
    Given it is hacked / stolen information, I would presume that eventually the network of journos will be pressured into giving access to the authorities. The fact they have been very selective in the names they have released makes certainly makes you wonder.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Corbyn's just filed his most recent surely? Didn't keep a copy?
  • DairA
    DairA Posts: 49
    JonCisBack said:

    Odd time in politics.

    I would not ever countenance voting for someone like Sanders or Corbyn

    I fail to see any fundamental difference between the policies and views of a John Major and those of Bernie Sanders.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Slackbladder said:

    If JC did his tax return online using HMRC online system then he should just be able to print it out.

    If an accountant did it, then they 100% would have a copy of it.

    Therefore the only likely possible outcome is that he did it on paper... and if he did..wow.. thats very very backward.

    No, as we discussed on the previous thread, MPs have to file a paper return, because there's a special expenses section only for them and it's not implemented online.
    But you can get/buy software which will do it for you though. You don't have to do it on paper. Only if you want to do it yourself.

  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Indigo said:

    Cyclefree said:


    That is a fair point. I pay a larger proportion of my income as tax than Google or Amazon or various Caffe companies and people much richer than me. Too much of the burden is being borne by too small a group.

    I don't know about the other's but I don't believe Amazon has ever posted a profit even in the states. Bezos has been reinvesting pretty much every penny they make to grow his business which is how it's gone from nothing to the international colossus it is in 22 years.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-profits-what-people-dont-understand-2013-10
    Amazon is losing money because it's investing like crazy in fulfillment centers, and other expensive things to stay 100 steps ahead of the competition. Amazon has found that cheap, fast shipping leads to a big jump in sales, so it's investing in making that possible.

    Amazon could turn a profit today if it stopped investing. Wei says Amazon turns a profit on almost all transactions. It posts quarterly losses because of its massive investments. A lot of people think Amazon will eventually be profitable when it has a monopoly on e-commerce and starts raising prices. That's wrong, it just has to stop investing.
    This is correct. It is just lazy to lump Amazon in with some of the other companies, just because they have massive sales numbers. The one "dodge" they used to do was VAT, but that was shown to have resulted in lower prices for the consumer not higher profits for Amazon (obviously the knock on effect was being able to undercut other businesses). Again it was all about Amazon gaining market share, not making more money.

    Amazon have big dreams, big goals, flogging books is a tiny part of that e.g. AWS

    https://news.slashdot.org/story/16/04/07/2334254/jeff-bezos-aws-will-break-10-billion-this-year

    We hear this excuse all the time but just how acceptable is a business model that puts huge numbers of other taxpaying firms out of business, builds up a dominant market position and a truly huge capital value and yet contributes nothing to the society on which it feeds?

    It is not Amazon's fault that our tax laws are so idiotic but it is only in the more arcane and remote areas of accountancy that this is not a profitable firm that should be accounting for a proportion of that profit. In the meantime I buy nothing off Amazon I can get anywhere else. I am sure they are hurting as a result.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    DavidL said:


    We hear this excuse all the time but just how acceptable is a business model that puts huge numbers of other taxpaying firms out of business, builds up a dominant market position and a truly huge capital value and yet contributes nothing to the society on which it feeds?

    It is not Amazon's fault that our tax laws are so idiotic but it is only in the more arcane and remote areas of accountancy that this is not a profitable firm that should be accounting for a proportion of that profit. In the meantime I buy nothing off Amazon I can get anywhere else. I am sure they are hurting as a result.

    Its not an "excuse". It is simply the facts. The investment people are screaming at Amazon to make some bloody profit and stop investing it all, but the head guy wants to be bigger and better, and has little interest in being remembered as the bloke who flogged crap from China via the internet.

    Other big tech companies are genuinely making massive profits (even post investment) and pulling very elaborate schemes to minimize tax, Amazon isn't the same in that respect.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    taffys said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sort of on topic, I wonder what turnout by Bernie's supporters will be if/when Hillary gets the nomination?

    A third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November's presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X60B3?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

    How can the Republicans win?

    Go with Trump= lose.

    Go with someone else =Trumpers desert=lose

    ergo=lose
    The best result for the GOP is Trump getting over 1237 I think. He'll have then "won" and I think alot of the Cruz crew will get behind him.

    If he scores marginally under 1237 and still gets in I think that will be more difficult.

    Cruz using his superior organisation to eek out a win after being a long way behind in delegates will pretty much guarantee losing Pennslyvania in particular (As the unbounds won't have followed the will of the people in pretty much all scenarios where Cruz wins). Seeing as Virginia is off the map I reckon for all GOP, losing PA as well is curtains.

    Speculation that Utah and some other deep red states may come into play with Trump, but I'll believe it when I see it.

    Pennslyvania, Florida, Nevada all more likely to be won by Trump rather than Cruz.

    PA, NV, FL, VA sees the Democrats home in a romp - so overall I think Trump has more chance than Cruz to win.

    I also think there is a bigger chance the GOP could get absolubtely smashed, but if Trump has Utah close then he isn't going to win anyway !
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    And the BBC and Guardian with THEIR offshore funds. Also it has been reported that the BBC and the Guardian are refusing to release the Panama files to the HMRC and if true is a disgrace
    Given it is hacked / stolen information, I would presume that eventually the network of journos will be pressured into giving access to the authorities. The fact they have been very selective in the names they have released makes certainly makes you wonder.
    You can download the huge dump yourself if you want. (I would note that being in possession of it, given it is "stolen" may well be a criminal offence.) But it is available as a torrent, and can be found by anyone with Google Fu.

    (For the record, while I am aware of it, I have not downloaded it. And nor will I be downloading it.)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Dave surrounded by a Leaver (Grayling) and a Remainer (Osborne)

    #ToryUnity
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    And the BBC and Guardian with THEIR offshore funds. Also it has been reported that the BBC and the Guardian are refusing to release the Panama files to the HMRC and if true is a disgrace
    Given it is hacked / stolen information, I would presume that eventually the network of journos will be pressured into giving access to the authorities. The fact they have been very selective in the names they have released makes certainly makes you wonder.
    You can download the huge dump yourself if you want. (I would note that being in possession of it, given it is "stolen" may well be a criminal offence.) But it is available as a torrent, and can be found by anyone with Google Fu.

    (For the record, while I am aware of it, I have not downloaded it. And nor will I be downloading it.)
    Arhh so it is. I wont be either, a) because its stolen and b) 2.6 TB...thanks but no thanks.

    I believe however the network of journos who have been using the info have it a version that has now been neatly cataloged, searchable etc on a private server. I presume the dump is just that, a raw dump.
  • RoyalBlue
    RoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Casino_Royale said:

    Seventh like Remain

    Like :smiley: have you done any more for Vote Leave? We should get the official designation on Thursday.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    @steve_hawkes: Cameron: "I'm not suggesting this should apply to all MPs" .... loud cheers as PM rules out asking all MPs to publish their tax returns
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    And the BBC and Guardian with THEIR offshore funds. Also it has been reported that the BBC and the Guardian are refusing to release the Panama files to the HMRC and if true is a disgrace
    Given it is hacked / stolen information, I would presume that eventually the network of journos will be pressured into giving access to the authorities. The fact they have been very selective in the names they have released makes certainly makes you wonder.
    You can download the huge dump yourself if you want. (I would note that being in possession of it, given it is "stolen" may well be a criminal offence.) But it is available as a torrent, and can be found by anyone with Google Fu.

    (For the record, while I am aware of it, I have not downloaded it. And nor will I be downloading it.)
    Arhh so it is. I wont be either, a) because its stolen and b) 2.6 TB...thanks but no thanks.

    I believe however the network of journos who have been using the info have it all neatly cataloged, searchable etc. I presume the dump is just that.
    I'm still staggered that a commercial organisation with massive numbers of highly sensitive and confidential documents would run their web site on a machine inside their firewall.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Dave having fun that what he's done is what the Guardian, Mirror, the BBC, Trade Unions, and one council at random, Islington council have done the same as him
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Suggests he owns share assets worth around a million with a 4.4% return ?
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    David Cameron just nailed the BBC, Guardian, Mirror Group and Islington Council of all people
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    DavidL said:

    Surely there will come a point when she has a majority and that is that?

    I agree with Richard though. She is not a natural campaigner or public speaker. She needs to work at it and she has been forced to sharpen her message, improve her performances and weed out at least some of the incompetents in her team. None of this will do her any harm come November.

    Not exactly. She will have a majority at some point due to her superdelegate support but these are 'soft' votes: pledges of intent that can be reversed at the delegate's discretion. As such, they're not in the bag until they're cast at the convention itself - unlike the 'hard' votes coming from primaries and caucuses where the delegate is required to vote a certain way.

    At the moment, depending on which source you use, Hillary has a lead in pledged delegates in the range of 220-280. There are 712 unpledged superdelegates so it's highly likely that Hillary will be reliant on at least some for her overall win. Of course, she'll actually get most of the superdelegates - giving her a much more comfortable win rather than putting it at risk - but all the same, she won't technically be assured of victory without a 712 lead in the pledged column.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    Pulpstar said:

    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Suggests he owns share assets worth around a million with a 4.4% return ?
    Perfectly respectable for an heir-to-a-baronetcy ;)
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Over the years so much has been made of his very small stake in the families wallpaper business. He could have saved himself so much bother and just sold that back to the family before getting into government.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    edited April 2016
    @David_Herdson I make her lead to be 208 delegates at the moment. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/112R0zDRQLC2cxE1op0TY-IBq_PTtcxpwgfbu87DI45w/edit#gid=0

    Forecast sheet
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: "Aspiration and wealth creation are not somehow dirty words" Cameron key quote.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm still staggered that a commercial organisation with massive numbers of highly sensitive and confidential documents would run their web site on a machine inside their firewall.

    If they did and it was indeed an external hack (I know that's what they've said, but Mandy Rice Davies applies, surely?)

    Given the fact that many of these documents are old, my guess would be that they have engaged on a big internal programme to digitise their archives so that they can get rid of the paper copies. You can use your imagination for the rest.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Government strategy now to use the Panama Papers fallout to attack LAbour for being "anti-aspiration" - on share ownership, Inheritance tax
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: "Aspiration and wealth creation are not somehow dirty words" Cameron key quote.

    Why should the average-joe British taxpayer pick up the bill for the super-rich's "aspirations" to squirrel away their money in tax havens?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Over the years so much has been made of his very small stake in the families wallpaper business. He could have saved himself so much bother and just sold that back to the family before getting into government.
    The divis and supposed stake size I've heard from the family business don't seem to add up. Either he's getting divis elsewhere, or the fair market value of his stake is higher than the paper value :)
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited April 2016
    If JC did a paper tax return then that needed to be filed by Sept 15 didn't it?

    HMRC also send you a tax calculation sheet too I believe & statement of account.

    As to all these published tax returns - where are the pension contributions captured and also they can look forward to the ridiculous annual allowance taper being a mess for themselves too for 16/17 onwards ...
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    What is a nice little earner for PM / CoE is renting out the London house while living in Downing Street. There is absolutely nothing wrong with it, but with London house prices / rental prices through the roof, it is now a very nice perk of the job to be able to get another £50k a year income.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Over the years so much has been made of his very small stake in the families wallpaper business. He could have saved himself so much bother and just sold that back to the family before getting into government.
    The divis and supposed stake size I've heard from the family business don't seem to add up. Either he's getting divis elsewhere, or the fair market value of his stake is higher than the paper value :)
    George Osborne only earned £3 in interest.

    Shameful.

    There's your big story.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Plato_Says said:

    Corbyn's just filed his most recent surely? Didn't keep a copy?

    It's not like he's had a day to get the tea-Seamus to get on it.

    As said, the only explanation is that he's getting someone to engrave it onto an obelisk.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    taffys said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sort of on topic, I wonder what turnout by Bernie's supporters will be if/when Hillary gets the nomination?

    A third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November's presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0X60B3?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

    How can the Republicans win?

    Go with Trump= lose.

    Go with someone else =Trumpers desert=lose

    ergo=lose
    How can the Republicans win? Control congress.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    WAHEY!!!
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    DairA said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Odd time in politics.

    I would not ever countenance voting for someone like Sanders or Corbyn

    I fail to see any fundamental difference between the policies and views of a John Major and those of Bernie Sanders.
    OK I confess I know jack about Sanders other than he calls himself a socialist. Not something Mr Major ever did!

    The point of my post was that even normal people like me ( lol ) and not just the usual leftie suspects are getting a bit annoyed at the 0.1%.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    The gift that keeps giving....PM doesn't break the rules....Leader of the Opposition, errrh does...tax deadline just for little people *?

    * should add for the record I missed the deadline last year and got a nice £100 fine.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    LadyBucket said:

    I hope the PM wipes the floor with JC and Labour this pm. I saw Jess Phillips on Daily Politics, admittedly for only a few minutes (which is quite enough). I'm beginning to dislike this gobby, arrogant woman more and more.

    'Wiping the floor with Corbyn' would be the wrong tone for the PM to adopt and the wrong target as well.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/719537276343160832
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    hahaha it gets better,.....
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jezza is terribly angry as ever
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/719537276343160832

    Late.

    Like the tax return itself.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm still staggered that a commercial organisation with massive numbers of highly sensitive and confidential documents would run their web site on a machine inside their firewall.

    If they did (I know that's what they said, but Mandy Rice Davies applies, surely?)

    Given the fact that many of these documents are old, my guess would be that they have engaged on a big internal programme to digitise their archives so that they can get rid of the paper copies. You can use your imagination for the rest.
    I don't think there's any real doubt that the hackers got in in the way they said they did. To believe otherwise you need think one of the following:

    1. The hacking group in question is actually a CIA/Russian front organisation.
    2. The hacking group is lying.

    I don't think either of these is very likely.

    Furthermore, you can see via a simply Google archive search that the claim that the site was running an old version of Wordpress is true. You can also see that the IP address that the domain name used to point to does not seem to be assigned to a data centre provider. (Unless it was one provided by the Panamanian telecoms company.)

    Absent compelling evidence to the contrary, this makes the way the hack was described on-line seem very plausible to me.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GerriPeev: No sign of rental income from Jeremy Corbyn's lodger as far as I can make out
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David Cameron just nailed the BBC, Guardian, Mirror Group and Islington Council of all people

    Daily Mail been attacking Aunty, the Guardian and Labour for their hypocrisy all day.


    Islington Council? - er, not so much..!
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Corbyn just goes from bad to worse - amazingly he is uniting the conservative party
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: No sign of rental income from Jeremy Corbyn's lodger as far as I can make out

    Presumably due to rent-a-room scheme?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm still staggered that a commercial organisation with massive numbers of highly sensitive and confidential documents would run their web site on a machine inside their firewall.

    If they did (I know that's what they said, but Mandy Rice Davies applies, surely?)

    Given the fact that many of these documents are old, my guess would be that they have engaged on a big internal programme to digitise their archives so that they can get rid of the paper copies. You can use your imagination for the rest.
    I don't think there's any real doubt that the hackers got in in the way they said they did. To believe otherwise you need think one of the following:

    1. The hacking group in question is actually a CIA/Russian front organisation.
    2. The hacking group is lying.

    I don't think either of these is very likely.

    Furthermore, you can see via a simply Google archive search that the claim that the site was running an old version of Wordpress is true. You can also see that the IP address that the domain name used to point to does not seem to be assigned to a data centre provider. (Unless it was one provided by the Panamanian telecoms company.)

    Absent compelling evidence to the contrary, this makes the way the hack was described on-line seem very plausible to me.
    OK, you know more about it than I do.

    In that case Mossack Fonseca are idiots! No self-respecting gangster or dodgy oligarch should use them.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. P, one wonders whether Conservative or Labour MPs will be paying more attention to Corbyn's tax return.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: No sign of rental income from Jeremy Corbyn's lodger as far as I can make out

    Has he really been renting a room out in London for less than £4,250 a year?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: No sign of rental income from Jeremy Corbyn's lodger as far as I can make out

    Presumably due to rent-a-room scheme?
    He has to be the cheapest landlord in London if that is the case. Its now £7500, but last year and before it was only £4250. Anymore than that and you had to tell the tax man.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    hahaha it gets better,.....
    NO HE DIDN'T - PAPER RETURNS ARE DUE BY 31/10/15 2015 - ONLY ONLINE SUBMISSISONS HAVE UNTIL 31/1/2016....

    This is fishy....
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Over the years so much has been made of his very small stake in the families wallpaper business. He could have saved himself so much bother and just sold that back to the family before getting into government.
    The divis and supposed stake size I've heard from the family business don't seem to add up. Either he's getting divis elsewhere, or the fair market value of his stake is higher than the paper value :)
    George Osborne only earned £3 in interest.

    Shameful.

    There's your big story.
    Hmm, he must be completely invested in shares and run a very tight ship in terms of cash... It suggests an average account balance of ~ £50 (6% interest) to ~ £600 (0.5% interest).

    Balanced against a fair market value of ~ £1 million on his share dividends is very interesting indeed

    Does anyone else here have such little savings interest and such whacking comparitively large Divi payments ?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Someone please explain cadence to Jeremy Corbyn
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Corbyn filled the wrong pages of his tax return out....
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Over the years so much has been made of his very small stake in the families wallpaper business. He could have saved himself so much bother and just sold that back to the family before getting into government.
    The divis and supposed stake size I've heard from the family business don't seem to add up. Either he's getting divis elsewhere, or the fair market value of his stake is higher than the paper value :)
    George Osborne only earned £3 in interest.

    Shameful.

    There's your big story.
    Hmm, he must be completely invested in shares and run a very tight ship in terms of cash... It suggests an average account balance of ~ £50 (6% interest) to ~ £600 (0.5% interest).

    Balanced against a fair market value of ~ £1 million on his share dividends is very interesting indeed

    Does anyone else here have such little savings interest and such whacking comparitively large Divi payments ?
    I get 0.0% interest on my cash. Barclays Bank. So do the maths with that rate ...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wanderer said:

    It seems that Osborne's tax return is startlingly dull.

    Over the years so much has been made of his very small stake in the families wallpaper business. He could have saved himself so much bother and just sold that back to the family before getting into government.
    The divis and supposed stake size I've heard from the family business don't seem to add up. Either he's getting divis elsewhere, or the fair market value of his stake is higher than the paper value :)
    George Osborne only earned £3 in interest.

    Shameful.

    There's your big story.
    Hmm, he must be completely invested in shares and run a very tight ship in terms of cash... It suggests an average account balance of ~ £50 (6% interest) to ~ £600 (0.5% interest).

    Balanced against a fair market value of ~ £1 million on his share dividends is very interesting indeed

    Does anyone else here have such little savings interest and such whacking comparitively large Divi payments ?
    Perhaps Osborne, like Obama, is a secret Muslim, and considers interest haram.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Corbyn not paid anything to charity....the bastard.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @conorburns_mp: Jeremy Corbyn makes Neil Kinnock at time of Westland look forensic, incisive and pithy
  • DairA
    DairA Posts: 49
    JonCisBack said:

    DairA said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Odd time in politics.

    I would not ever countenance voting for someone like Sanders or Corbyn

    I fail to see any fundamental difference between the policies and views of a John Major and those of Bernie Sanders.
    OK I confess I know jack about Sanders other than he calls himself a socialist. Not something Mr Major ever did!

    The point of my post was that even normal people like me ( lol ) and not just the usual leftie suspects are getting a bit annoyed at the 0.1%.
    That's the thing, Bernie is by no means a socialist. He is at best a Social Democrat but frankly even that is a bit of a stretch. His focus is on providing higher standards of living for the Middle Class, which, in days gone by used to be the focus of most mainstream American politicians even up to the Reagan days.

    Only by the bizarre standards of the American Social Contract could he be considered a left winger. He isn't.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Every time Tories are in trouble all they do is get Cameron to make a statement, safe in the knowledge Corbyn will get them off the hook.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GerriPeev: No sign of rental income from Jeremy Corbyn's lodger as far as I can make out

    Presumably due to rent-a-room scheme?
    He has to be the cheapest landlord in London if that is the case. Its now £7500, but last year and before it was only £4250. Anymore than that and you had to tell the tax man.
    Clearly a difference between the rent and the fair market rent here ?

    Should that not be declared as a benefit in kind by the lodgee ?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    hahaha it gets better,.....
    NO HE DIDN'T - PAPER RETURNS ARE DUE BY 31/10/15 2015 - ONLY ONLINE SUBMISSISONS HAVE UNTIL 31/1/2016....

    This is fishy....
    errr it's dated 6/2/16.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    edited April 2016
    I have a new career for Jezza....

    Have you got a PR disaster, has your oil rig blown up and leaking millions of barrels of oil into the ocean, have you been caught at the races with your girlfriend live on BBC news, while your wife watches from home and now the video is all over social media...

    Its OK Captain Jezza can stand in and distract the media with utterly useless performances, so bad and incompetent, that the media forget about the original PR disaster....
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    Slackbladder said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    hahaha it gets better,.....
    NO HE DIDN'T - PAPER RETURNS ARE DUE BY 31/10/15 2015 - ONLY ONLINE SUBMISSISONS HAVE UNTIL 31/1/2016....

    This is fishy....
    errr it's dated 6/2/16.
    He'll have been stung with the penalty for late submission, presumably?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Wanderer said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: It appears that @jeremycorbyn submitted tax return 5 days late https://t.co/G4EIXyYNn5

    hahaha it gets better,.....
    NO HE DIDN'T - PAPER RETURNS ARE DUE BY 31/10/15 2015 - ONLY ONLINE SUBMISSISONS HAVE UNTIL 31/1/2016....

    This is fishy....
    errr it's dated 6/2/16.
    He'll have been stung with the penalty for late submission, presumably?
    Has the ink only just dried?
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