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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We are now at Peak Bern

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon most eurosceptic to least it'll be:

    South East
    East
    South West
    East Midlands
    North east
    West midlands
    Yorkshire and Humber
    Northwest
    Wales
    London
    Scotland
    Northern Ireland

    What about Yorkshire and The Humber?
    Hmm between West Mids and Northwest I think actually.
    I was thinking between East Midlands and North East, but I guess Leeds and Sheffield will be strong for Remain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I've just had a thought - is Northern Ireland included in the sample of the phone or online polls ?

    It isn't for the GE - but damn well should be for this.

    Survation sometimes include Northern Ireland in their samples.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon most eurosceptic to least it'll be:

    South East
    East
    South West
    East Midlands
    North east
    West midlands
    Yorkshire and Humber
    Northwest
    Wales
    London
    Scotland
    Northern Ireland

    What about Yorkshire and The Humber?
    Hmm between West Mids and Northwest I think actually.
    I was thinking between East Midlands and North East, but I guess Leeds and Sheffield will be strong for Remain.
    If Leave wins Sheffield Hallam then the PM would have to start writing his resignation speech, since it would be a massive Leave victory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited April 2016
    Asking for a friend, since John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn want political journalists to publish their tax returns,

    Question: Would someone who regularly writes on a blog for politics be considered a political journalist?
  • Asking for a friend, since John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn want political journalists to publish their tax returns,

    Question: Would someone who regularly writes on a blog for politics be considered a political journalist?

    No, because they'll be the first ones shipped of to 're-education camps' come the glorious new social order.
    Seriously, I reckon Labour would soon be after anyone that published less than flattering thread headers.
  • NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    " The EURef Count:
    Results will be declared as soon as they are known by the 382 local counting officers. There are 380 council areas in Great Britain plus one area for Northern Ireland and one for Gibraltar. Regional and national running totals will be available. Polling stations should not have more than 2,500 electors "

    Well I have to choose 3 councils then, instead of constituencies.
  • DairADairA Posts: 49
    edited April 2016
    weejonnie said:

    DairA said:

    weejonnie said:

    DairA said:

    SeanT said:

    Has anyone else noticed that the whatukthinks poll of polls now stands at 50/50?

    http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

    At what point does a punt on OUT become VALUE?

    I still don't understand how Out can lose. It is the only side with a compelling narrative, emotional connection while the starting position is very close to the Status Quo. It has win written all over it.

    If Vote Leave wins the campaign nod and successfully marginalises Farage, then surely any odds on Out are close to money purchase.
    Farage has said that GO will campaign alongside VL (assuming VL get the nod) targeting different aspects of the campaign. VL have kept off immigration and no doubt will continue to do so. We are still (incredibly) 2 1/2 months away from the Referendum.
    Farage can say whatever he wants.

    If Vote Leave get the nod, he will not feature in any TV debates, be kept off official platforms and get no coverage on television which will be compelled to cover Vote LEave and whatever the Remain group is called. In order for Grassroots Out to get coverage and maintain balance, there would have to be a second major Remain group to offer airtime to and AFAIK there isn't.

    In the press, Vote Leave will get coverage from the Tory Outer papers - Telegraph and Mail, while Farage will get featured in the Express. Should Vote Leave get the nod then Farage is finished and Out almost certainly wins.

    Which is why one has to suspect the possibility of a nod and a wink being sent the way of the Electoral Commission.
    I suspect a lot of this is hope - And DON'T forget THE SUN newspaper. Still a big reader base and can sway a lot of one side to the other. Looking at the website there is nothing much there - so maybe someone is hedging their bets.
    The Sun never declared in the First Indyref despite much anticipation. I expect it will be the exact same thing here.

    Unless there is really clear polling.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Indigo said:

    OllyT said:

    During the last month, once the May elections are over, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP will begin campaigning in earnest and if their voters turnout it large numbers for Remain then it will be all over as I expect Tory voters to split around 50/50 in the end.

    Wishful thinking if you think a lot of particularly working class voters are going to turn out to save Dave's bacon.
    Fine if the referendum was just about saving "Dave's bacon" but it's not. That is a wholly Tory-centric point of view.
    The temptation to wreck Cameron's legacy must be near irresistible for many Labour voters.
    In my experience hatred of Farage/UKIP runs far deeper than dislike of Cameron
This discussion has been closed.