politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Updated EURef polling tale and a reminder about tomorrow ni

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1

If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

The Remain vote is very soft.

(Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

Speedy said:

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762

The Tory shires are pissed!

The pitchforks are coming for Dave.

Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.

Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.

I expect turnout in the Valleys will be extremely low.

It looks like Leave should be trying for 100% turnout in Lincolnshire!

There are some surprises, look at Wigan which is an ultra safe Labour seat and look at Bolton West which is an ultra Tory marginal, they have the same number of petitioners.

Andy Burnham's seat seems to be the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1

If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

The Remain vote is very soft.

(Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)

Two points:

(1) Leave would need to big up the EEA emergency break for the immigration worried crowd
(2) Leave would need to square the EFTA members on the record first because I think Remain have statements ready to roll out that both the EU/EEA/EFTA would all go tell us to go and fuck ourselves if that became the public campaign position (although totally untrue)

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

Panama Scandal ALERT:

https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/7181. 29146119995392

A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

An Englishman ALWAYS laces.

Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.

No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

This is just naff:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

He's just really bad at SHOES.

I've never had monogrammed slippers (or a palace or a wife), but I think when a version of something appears in H&M it loses its cache.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1

I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1

If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

The Remain vote is very soft.

(Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)

Two points:

(1) Leave would need to big up the EEA emergency break for the immigration worried crowd
(2) Leave would need to square the EFTA members on the record first because I think Remain have statements ready to roll out that both the EU/EEA/EFTA would all go tell us to go and fuck ourselves if that became the public campaign position (although totally untrue)

On 2, I think that if we said "Can we join your club while we decide what we want?", then yes they probably would tell us where to go.

Which is why we need to properly commit to it.

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

Plato_Says said:

The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/

Internet access is probably way below average there.

Why?

Poor areas are less likely to have broadband access.

Is that seriously true today in 2016 and with the era of everyone and their child having a smartphone?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.

The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.

John Mann seemed to accuse David Cameron of failure to declare his shares at the GE in 2010 but he had sold them in January before the May election so I do not understand his point

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

MikeSmithson said:

MikeK said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320

Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working class

That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.

I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%

No way turnout is higher than in the GE.
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.

I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.

Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+

True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.

Who won that Tory victory? Who leads Remain?

I haven't disputed Remain will win this because of Cameron.

CD13 said:

Mr S junior,

"At least he's helped me make up my mind: I now believe Cameron has done nothing wrong."

He's handled it clumsily. He's a toff and toffs will have some good schemes going. Had he come straight out and said ... "My dad set us up with a few things, that's what dads do." He'd have been fine.

Labour would whinge because that's what they do, and there'll be enough of them at the trough to make them look like hypocrites.

But as usual, he's ashamed of his toffness and made it look worse.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1

NO never went bellow 41 for years in the polls it's support was hard and high, here we have Remain regularly scoring bellow that number and in a long term decline.

It doesn't tell us something that we don't know, Remain is soft and Leave is a rock and both a tad lower than NO during the scottish ref. campaign.

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

On 2, I think that if we said "Can we join your club while we decide what we want?", then yes they probably would tell us where to go.

Which is why we need to properly commit to it.

Indeed.

And it's probably too near the referendum to get such assurances now. Leave should have been doing this groundwork in the last few years. Their failure to do so and their general unpreparedness makes it look as though they didn't believe Cameron would give them a referendum.

It would have been dropped, willingly or otherwise, if there was a coalition, which for most people was the most likely result.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1

Yes did not have all the passion in IndyRef though they may have appeared to by drowning out others. There are many (especially the elderly) who are passionate about the country, my grandfather (English but his ancestry is Scottish) who grew up in WWII and served in the RAF afterwards almost had tears in his eyes asking why anyone was trying to break up his country when I discussed it with him. A whole generation whether Scottish or English fought for this country and believe in it even if younger generations who are out on the streets may be more vocal.

I doubt anyone has the passion for the EU that my grandfather and so may of his generation has for the UK.

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

Danny565 said:

So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?

Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?

Dunno.

The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...

Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this

I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

Pathetic.

Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.

Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.

LewisDuckworth said:

Remain must hope that the Petition Map is not positively related to Referendum Turnout - if it is, then Leave will win by at least 10 lengths.

HYUFD said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Indigo said:

Plato_Says said:

I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

GIN1138 said:

RobD said:

GIN1138 said:

Danny565 said:

So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?

Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?

Dunno.

The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...

Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this

I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

Pathetic.

Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.

Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.

Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

Panama Scandal ALERT:

https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

An Englishman ALWAYS laces.

Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.

No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

This is just naff:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

He's just really bad at SHOES.

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

Panama Scandal ALERT:

https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

An Englishman ALWAYS laces.

Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.

No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

This is just naff:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

He's just really bad at SHOES.

Dealer boots, monk shoes?

The trouble with most lace ups is that they look crap with jeans. If you're going to wear your shiny black Oxfords with jeans you might as well go the whole hog - buy a rugby shirt and call yourself Tim.

JosiasJessop said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

Panama Scandal ALERT:

https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

An Englishman ALWAYS laces.

Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.

No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

This is just naff:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

He's just really bad at SHOES.

Dealer boots, monk shoes?

The trouble with most lace ups is that they look crap with jeans. If you're going to wear your shiny black Oxfords with jeans you might as well go the whole hog - buy a rugby shirt and call yourself Tim.

God knows what you lot would make of my dress sense (or lack thereof).

weejonnie said:

Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

Fenster said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.

The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.

Politicians can't give straight answers.

Omnium said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

Panama Scandal ALERT:

https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

An Englishman ALWAYS laces.

Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.

No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

This is just naff:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

He's just really bad at SHOES.

Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.

I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.

If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.

So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie...

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hunt insists he will impose new contract on NHS doctors

The matter is closed, says the health secretary, who is refusing to budge over the new contract for junior medics as their two-day strike comes to an end

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/07/hunt-insists-he-will-impose-new-contract-on-nhs-doctors

HYUFD said:

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.

They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.

foxinsoxuk said:

Indigo said:

rcs1000 said:

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?

I think it equally certain that in the event of Leave that within 10 years there would be a strong movement to rejoinn the EU.

60 years of Euro hokey-cokey is not going to end on June 25th!

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

weejonnie said:

Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

I think it could get a million signatures in time for the 10 o' clock news and it would hardly get a mention....

No, but it is interesting to see the numbers of the seat map, for instance not only is Andy Burnahm's seat apparently the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester but also Yvette Cooper's in West Yorkshire.

Owen Patterson's seat in the W.Midlands is no surprise that is apparently the most euroskeptic in that region.

I don't think North Shropshire is particularly Euro-sceptic compared to places like Cannock Chase, Tamworth, Dudley, North Warwickshire. You're probably getting a higher number of signatures where people are more politically engaged like Paterson's constituency.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.

They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.

Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"

Tykejohnno said:

STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

92,094 signatures

MarkHopkins said:

JohnLoony said:

As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?

Watch "White House Down" instead. Much better film.

RoyalBlue said:

Tykejohnno said:

STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

92,094 signatures

It won't hit 100,000 by 10pm. Shame!

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.

They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.

Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"

JohnLoony said:

As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.

My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.

They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.

Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"

I wonder if a eurozone country will withdraw from the EU but keep the euro.
They certainly can, but it's tantalizing as a theory of the euro still existing after the EU disintegrates.

It will be a bit like the Sterling zone or the Franc zone after the corresponding empires ceased to exist, the Euro will probably go for a while longer.

RoyalBlue said:

Tykejohnno said:

STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

92,094 signatures

It won't hit 100,000 by 10pm. Shame!

foxinsoxuk said:

Omnium said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

Panama Scandal ALERT:

https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

An Englishman ALWAYS laces.

Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.

No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

This is just naff:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

He's just really bad at SHOES.

Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.

I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.

If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.

So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie...

I always wear a tie pin at work. I think the current fashion for no tie and flapping collar with a suit just slovenly.

However no jacket or long sleeves at work is uniform policy (bare below the elbows for washing) and a tie flaps around a bit in consequence, particularly when examining patients, hence the tie pin.

I wear Solovair dealer boots most days too. I do a lot of walking in my job and bouncy soles are very comfy.

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

.

T

I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK

And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.

They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.

Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"

I wonder if a eurozone country will withdraw from the EU but keep the euro.
They certainly can, but it's tantalizing as a theory of the euro still existing after the EU disintegrates.

It will be a bit like the Sterling zone or the Franc zone after the corresponding empires ceased to exist, the Euro will probably go for a while longer.

Small countries (from Monaco sized up to Estonia or even the Netherlands) tend to be much more Euro-positive than big ones. Simply because - even before they joined the Euro - their governments had to borrow in foreign currencies.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I think Dave's bad week is going to get worse. A former Indy journo is publishing something on Sunday that could be rather difficult.