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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Updated EURef polling tale and a reminder about tomorrow ni

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,602
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

    The Remain vote is very soft.

    (Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)
    Two points:

    (1) Leave would need to big up the EEA emergency break for the immigration worried crowd
    (2) Leave would need to square the EFTA members on the record first because I think Remain have statements ready to roll out that both the EU/EEA/EFTA would all go tell us to go and fuck ourselves if that became the public campaign position (although totally untrue)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/07/donald-trump-just-did-something-very-smart
    Donald Trump is not a dumb man. He didn't get to where he is -- in this presidential race and in life generally -- by not grasping when things are slipping away from him and making the necessary changes to correct the problem.

    That's exactly what Trump did Thursday afternoon when he announced that Paul Manafort, an old political hand not previously affiliated with the real estate mogul's campaign, would serve as "convention manager" -- a position from which he "will oversee, manage, and be responsible for all activities that pertain to Mr. Trump’s delegate process and the Cleveland Convention."

    No, you are not the only one thinking that such a job description makes it sound a lot like Manafort is being put in charge of Trump's entire operation. The reason you think that is because that's what is happening.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
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    Remain must hope that the Petition Map is not positively related to Referendum Turnout - if it is, then Leave will win by at least 10 lengths.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Speedy said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762

    The Tory shires are pissed!
    The pitchforks are coming for Dave.
    Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.

    Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.
    I expect turnout in the Valleys will be extremely low.

    It looks like Leave should be trying for 100% turnout in Lincolnshire!
    There are some surprises, look at Wigan which is an ultra safe Labour seat and look at Bolton West which is an ultra Tory marginal, they have the same number of petitioners.

    Andy Burnham's seat seems to be the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester
    Not surprising to me.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Rather predictably....

    John Mann, a backbench Labour MP on the Treasury committee, said Mr Cameron should resign. He said: 'He covered-up and misled. How he got his shares is irrelevant. He has no choice but to resign.'
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

    The Remain vote is very soft.

    (Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)
    Two points:

    (1) Leave would need to big up the EEA emergency break for the immigration worried crowd
    (2) Leave would need to square the EFTA members on the record first because I think Remain have statements ready to roll out that both the EU/EEA/EFTA would all go tell us to go and fuck ourselves if that became the public campaign position (although totally untrue)
    On 2, I think that if we said "Can we join your club while we decide what we want?", then yes they probably would tell us where to go.

    Which is why we need to properly commit to it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Rather predictably....

    John Mann, a backbench Labour MP on the Treasury committee, said Mr Cameron should resign. He said: 'He covered-up and misled. How he got his shares is irrelevant. He has no choice but to resign.'

    No choice? :p
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Slip on moccasins with tassels, the ultimate in tacky footwear

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/7181. 29146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.

    I've never had monogrammed slippers (or a palace or a wife), but I think when a version of something appears in H&M it loses its cache.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    CD13 said:

    It's beginning to feel like 1975 with a few differences.

    Like then, there's not even a pretence of a level playing field. Even then I, as a Europhilic youth (oh, alright, 25 then) thought the referendum hugely biased in our favour.

    But this time the sides are much more even to begin with.

    Then it was Establishment and almost everyone vs a few Loons like Tony Benn.

    Now it's the Establishment, the Political Union supporters and the Naïve vs the Experienced, the Cynical and a sprinkling of Loons.

    And Cameron, the poster boy for Remain, is taking a beating of his own making.

    The big difference is that in 1975 YES was an effective crossparty campaign. REMAIN is just Cameron and his cronies.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    With Scotland voting Remain by a modest margin - just enough to give us a fully fledged constitutional crisis. England votes to leave the EU. What are you going to do, Prime Minister?
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Rather predictably....

    John Mann, a backbench Labour MP on the Treasury committee, said Mr Cameron should resign. He said: 'He covered-up and misled. How he got his shares is irrelevant. He has no choice but to resign.'

    I am shocked, shocked that he was not calling on Jeremy Corbyn to resign.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    NO never went bellow 41 for years in the polls it's support was hard and high, here we have Remain regularly scoring bellow that number and in a long term decline.

    It doesn't tell us something that we don't know, Remain is soft and Leave is a rock and both a tad lower than NO during the scottish ref. campaign.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Is the quote function playing up? Can't use it at present
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...
    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.
    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063

    Rather predictably....

    John Mann, a backbench Labour MP on the Treasury committee, said Mr Cameron should resign. He said: 'He covered-up and misled. How he got his shares is irrelevant. He has no choice but to resign.'

    At least he's helped me make up my mind: I now believe Cameron has done nothing wrong.

    (Re Panama)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

    The Remain vote is very soft.

    (Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)
    Two points:

    (1) Leave would need to big up the EEA emergency break for the immigration worried crowd
    (2) Leave would need to square the EFTA members on the record first because I think Remain have statements ready to roll out that both the EU/EEA/EFTA would all go tell us to go and fuck ourselves if that became the public campaign position (although totally untrue)
    On 2, I think that if we said "Can we join your club while we decide what we want?", then yes they probably would tell us where to go.

    Which is why we need to properly commit to it.
    Indeed.

    And it's probably too near the referendum to get such assurances now. Leave should have been doing this groundwork in the last few years. Their failure to do so and their general unpreparedness makes it look as though they didn't believe Cameron would give them a referendum. :)
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    I think labour need to be careful over David Cameron's current problems as his resignation would deal a serious blow to remain. Also perversely his colleagues in leave may be happy to see his resignation. Dangerous times for DC but also for remain
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/
    Internet access is probably way below average there.
    Why?
    Poor areas are less likely to have broadband access.
    Is that seriously true today in 2016 and with the era of everyone and their child having a smartphone?
    My mother can't get broadband. She lives 3 miles South of Consett. Distance from the exchange is the most important factor.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

    What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

    This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?
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    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.
    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.

    John Mann seemed to accuse David Cameron of failure to declare his shares at the GE in 2010 but he had sold them in January before the May election so I do not understand his point
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Mr S junior,

    "At least he's helped me make up my mind: I now believe Cameron has done nothing wrong."

    He's handled it clumsily. He's a toff and toffs will have some good schemes going. Had he come straight out and said ... "My dad set us up with a few things, that's what dads do." He'd have been fine.

    Labour would whinge because that's what they do, and there'll be enough of them at the trough to make them look like hypocrites.

    But as usual, he's ashamed of his toffness and made it look worse.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    With Scotland voting Remain by a modest margin - just enough to give us a fully fledged constitutional crisis. England votes to leave the EU. What are you going to do, Prime Minister?
    Would soothe Scottish nationalism, why worry about independence when you can dictate the future of the whole United Kingdom but would put a rocket boost under English nationalism. Certainly would boost calls for an English Parliament
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016

    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.
    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.

    John Mann seemed to accuse David Cameron of failure to declare his shares at the GE in 2010 but he had sold them in January before the May election so I do not understand his point
    John Mann often engages mouth before brain....
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited April 2016
    Precisely, it wasn't a lottery win sized investment to worry about.

    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.


    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152

    HYUFD said:

    MikeK said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320

    Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working class
    That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.
    I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%
    No way turnout is higher than in the GE.
    Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.
    I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.
    Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+

    True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.
    Who won that Tory victory? Who leads Remain?
    I haven't disputed Remain will win this because of Cameron.
    He is still the ace in the Remain camp
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.

    The Remain vote is very soft.

    (Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)
    Two points:

    (1) Leave would need to big up the EEA emergency break for the immigration worried crowd
    (2) Leave would need to square the EFTA members on the record first because I think Remain have statements ready to roll out that both the EU/EEA/EFTA would all go tell us to go and fuck ourselves if that became the public campaign position (although totally untrue)
    On 2, I think that if we said "Can we join your club while we decide what we want?", then yes they probably would tell us where to go.

    Which is why we need to properly commit to it.
    Indeed.

    And it's probably too near the referendum to get such assurances now. Leave should have been doing this groundwork in the last few years. Their failure to do so and their general unpreparedness makes it look as though they didn't believe Cameron would give them a referendum. :)
    It would have been dropped, willingly or otherwise, if there was a coalition, which for most people was the most likely result.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    CD13 said:

    Mr S junior,

    "At least he's helped me make up my mind: I now believe Cameron has done nothing wrong."

    He's handled it clumsily. He's a toff and toffs will have some good schemes going. Had he come straight out and said ... "My dad set us up with a few things, that's what dads do." He'd have been fine.

    Labour would whinge because that's what they do, and there'll be enough of them at the trough to make them look like hypocrites.

    But as usual, he's ashamed of his toffness and made it look worse.

    Maybe he was embarrassed to admit just how little money he had invested....I am sure Osborne is in regards to his shareholding in the family firm which is worth hardly anything. He would have saved himself a lot of bother if he had just surrendered them in 2010 like Dave.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152
    edited April 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    NO never went bellow 41 for years in the polls it's support was hard and high, here we have Remain regularly scoring bellow that number and in a long term decline.

    It doesn't tell us something that we don't know, Remain is soft and Leave is a rock and both a tad lower than NO during the scottish ref. campaign.
    Had No won just 41% Yes would have won a big victory so I don't see the point? In the end No won by 10%

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    NO never went bellow 41 for years in the polls it's support was hard and high, here we have Remain regularly scoring bellow that number and in a long term decline.

    It doesn't tell us something that we don't know, Remain is soft and Leave is a rock and both a tad lower than NO during the scottish ref. campaign.
    Regularly?

    You mean twice
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On 2, I think that if we said "Can we join your club while we decide what we want?", then yes they probably would tell us where to go.

    Which is why we need to properly commit to it.

    Indeed.

    And it's probably too near the referendum to get such assurances now. Leave should have been doing this groundwork in the last few years. Their failure to do so and their general unpreparedness makes it look as though they didn't believe Cameron would give them a referendum. :)
    It would have been dropped, willingly or otherwise, if there was a coalition, which for most people was the most likely result.
    Still no reason to drop the ball and not press forward with what you can.
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2016


    John Mann seemed to accuse David Cameron of failure to declare his shares at the GE in 2010 but he had sold them in January before the May election so I do not understand his point

    I think Mann has confused himself is his zeal to be the man putting the boot in. The key questions are has Cameron correctly paid the tax for it, which we will know when he publishes his tax returns as promised, and did he declare it as an interest, since he has been an MP since 2001 and was Leader of HMO since 2005.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    Yes did not have all the passion in IndyRef though they may have appeared to by drowning out others. There are many (especially the elderly) who are passionate about the country, my grandfather (English but his ancestry is Scottish) who grew up in WWII and served in the RAF afterwards almost had tears in his eyes asking why anyone was trying to break up his country when I discussed it with him. A whole generation whether Scottish or English fought for this country and believe in it even if younger generations who are out on the streets may be more vocal.

    I doubt anyone has the passion for the EU that my grandfather and so may of his generation has for the UK.
    There was a little bit of passion amongst the elderly, there is a little bit of passion amongst some of the young for the EU but in both referendums it is Yes/No respectively who have the most fired up supporters
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    A narrow Remain result would almost certainly mean a Leave win in England. Maybe a statement of the obvious but important nonetheless.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
    Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    JohnLoony said:

    As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?

    Haven't seen LHF, but I rather guiltily enjoyed Olympus has Fallen enough to watch it twice on my PVR. it was better than the other, similar film that was out at the same time; White House Down.

    But the reviews of LHF were dire, and the special effects on the trailer laughable. I doubt you'd need much to watch LHF aside from a frontal lobotomy. ;)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016

    Remain must hope that the Petition Map is not positively related to Referendum Turnout - if it is, then Leave will win by at least 10 lengths.

    Trying to extrapolate the Referendum results and the turnout from the petition is tricky.
    First of all where do you draw the line, at 150 signatures? 175? 200?

    Well if you use the ORB online poll which has a sample large enough to draw conclusions, from the regions with more than 200 respondents, there are complications for the comparison.

    They do show Leave with a 20 point lead in the East, which is comparable with the petition map and they do show Remain with a 4 point lead in the N.W, however they have Remain with a 1 point lead in the S.E. excluding London which is definitely incompatible with the petition results.
    And they have London with a 12 point Remain lead which would set the bar pretty low for the petition map.

    I guess that the bar is around 160 signatures per seat for it to be at the Leave camp.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    JohnLoony said:

    As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?

    Haven't seen LHF, but I rather guiltily enjoyed Olympus has Fallen enough to watch it twice on my PVR. it was better than the other, similar film that was out at the same time; White House Down.

    But the reviews of LHF were dire, and the special effects on the trailer laughable. I doubt you'd need much to watch LHF aside from a frontal lobotomy. ;)
    Antoine Fuqua kept well away from directing the sequel....
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
    Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party
    I doubt it. The Conservatives badly needed a new direction, which Cameron provided. Although I think that Labour's infighting rather than the crash was Labour's biggest vote loser in 2010.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,993
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.
    Dealer boots, monk shoes?

    The trouble with most lace ups is that they look crap with jeans. If you're going to wear your shiny black Oxfords with jeans you might as well go the whole hog - buy a rugby shirt and call yourself Tim.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1
    NO never went bellow 41 for years in the polls it's support was hard and high, here we have Remain regularly scoring bellow that number and in a long term decline.

    It doesn't tell us something that we don't know, Remain is soft and Leave is a rock and both a tad lower than NO during the scottish ref. campaign.
    Regularly?

    You mean twice
    Just in the above Table of the thread I count 7 times bellow 41% for Remain.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.
    Dealer boots, monk shoes?

    The trouble with most lace ups is that they look crap with jeans. If you're going to wear your shiny black Oxfords with jeans you might as well go the whole hog - buy a rugby shirt and call yourself Tim.
    God knows what you lot would make of my dress sense (or lack thereof).
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

    What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

    This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?
    I think it equally certain that in the event of Leave that within 10 years there would be a strong movement to rejoinn the EU.

    60 years of Euro hokey-cokey is not going to end on June 25th!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.
    Dealer boots, monk shoes?

    The trouble with most lace ups is that they look crap with jeans. If you're going to wear your shiny black Oxfords with jeans you might as well go the whole hog - buy a rugby shirt and call yourself Tim.
    God knows what you lot would make of my dress sense (or lack thereof).
    Want to see some bad shoes / dress sense....

    http://cdn.sandiegouniontrib.com/img/photos/2016/01/12/2016-01-11T003929Z_581400153_NOCID_RTRMADP_3_PGA-HYUNDAI-TOU_r900x493.JPG?122770e84b36f1c039d5c4c2ca15c2d8bc4ecd52
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

    What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

    This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?
    To leave now would definitely injure our economy and help Labour. We should remain and make extra efforts to strengthen our economy whilst chivvying the EU to reform. We will have to consider another EUref eventually, but leaving is not right for now.

  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,323
    I've always scoffed at the hysteria that greeted Cameron's previous 'scandals'. It was mostly opportunistic cant from a bored media or a desperate opposition. But I have to agree with the posters below. Tonight Cameron is mortally wounded and his reputation in tatters. Those shoes were awful!
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    weejonnie said:

    Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

    I think it could get a million signatures in time for the 10 o' clock news and it would hardly get a mention....
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.
    Dealer boots, monk shoes?

    The trouble with most lace ups is that they look crap with jeans. If you're going to wear your shiny black Oxfords with jeans you might as well go the whole hog - buy a rugby shirt and call yourself Tim.
    A pair of monk shoes or tassel loafers go really well with chinos.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.
    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.

    Politicians can't give straight answers.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Hunt insists he will impose new contract on NHS doctors

    The matter is closed, says the health secretary, who is refusing to budge over the new contract for junior medics as their two-day strike comes to an end

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/07/hunt-insists-he-will-impose-new-contract-on-nhs-doctors
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited April 2016

    weejonnie said:

    Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

    I think it could get a million signatures in time for the 10 o' clock news and it would hardly get a mention....
    I love the site of England going dark red for once.

    I suspect there is a VERY strong correlation between population density and diversity enrichment areas and Pro Leave (other than London).
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Fenster said:

    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.
    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.

    Politicians can't give straight answers.
    To be fair, Cameron did just that during expenses scandal and made people screaming blue murder about his wisteria problem look rather silly. Perhaps he would have been better doing the same this time.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,055

    Precisely, it wasn't a lottery win sized investment to worry about.

    Imagine if Cameron had just said this to begin with...

    I did own stocks and shares in the past - quite naturally because my father was a stockbroker. Myself and my wife bought shares in April 1997 for £12,497 and sold it in January 2010 for £31,500. I sold them all in 2010, because if I was going to become Prime Minister I didn't want anyone to say you have other agendas, vested interests. I properly paid income tax on the dividends. I now own no shares in any companies, I own a house and my only income is my salary, rent on the home I let out and some interest on my savings.


    The press would have gone nuts for one day and I think that would of been it.
    From the left, agree. It's the twisting and squirming that's damaging him.

    Mind, again from the left it's quite enjoyable to see "call me Dave" twisting and squirming. And, the fact that things are being drawn out suggests there IS more to come.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Omnium said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.




    Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.

    I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.

    If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.

    So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie... :)


    I always wear a tie pin at work. I think the current fashion for no tie and flapping collar with a suit just slovenly.

    However no jacket or long sleeves at work is uniform policy (bare below the elbows for washing) and a tie flaps around a bit in consequence, particularly when examining patients, hence the tie pin.

    I wear Solovair dealer boots most days too. I do a lot of walking in my job and bouncy soles are very comfy.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,993
    Ted Cruz going down like cold sick in New York. Who'd have thunk it !
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    He had to bite.


    "GOsborneGenius ‏@GOsborneGenius 22s22 seconds ago
    @ShippersUnbound Cameron and the horse was peak Cameron, until the Villa/West Ham fan Cameron became peak Cameron."
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016

    weejonnie said:

    Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

    I think it could get a million signatures in time for the 10 o' clock news and it would hardly get a mention....
    No, but it is interesting to see the numbers of the seat map, for instance not only is Andy Burnahm's seat apparently the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester but also Yvette Cooper's in West Yorkshire.

    Owen Patterson's seat in the W.Midlands is no surprise that is apparently the most euroskeptic in that region.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152
    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152

    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
    Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party
    I doubt it. The Conservatives badly needed a new direction, which Cameron provided. Although I think that Labour's infighting rather than the crash was Labour's biggest vote loser in 2010.
    Davis would not have polled as high as Cameron but I could see a result something like Tory 33%, Labour 29%, LD 27% in 2010
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063

    Hunt insists he will impose new contract on NHS doctors

    The matter is closed, says the health secretary, who is refusing to budge over the new contract for junior medics as their two-day strike comes to an end

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/07/hunt-insists-he-will-impose-new-contract-on-nhs-doctors

    While I don't feel sorry for doctors in general over this, I do feel for A&E guys. They are seeing a huge pay cut, and they are the speciality with the worst retention rates already.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    dr_spyn said:

    He had to bite.


    "GOsborneGenius ‏@GOsborneGenius 22s22 seconds ago
    @ShippersUnbound Cameron and the horse was peak Cameron, until the Villa/West Ham fan Cameron became peak Cameron."

    I disagree, if that is the bar then Cameron surely tried to pass it today:

    https://twitter.com/mashable/status/718043930152009728

    The Cotswolds are of course notoriously frosty in late June (jokingly).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063
    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
    Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2016
    Speedy said:

    weejonnie said:

    Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

    I think it could get a million signatures in time for the 10 o' clock news and it would hardly get a mention....
    No, but it is interesting to see the numbers of the seat map, for instance not only is Andy Burnahm's seat apparently the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester but also Yvette Cooper's in West Yorkshire.

    Owen Patterson's seat in the W.Midlands is no surprise that is apparently the most euroskeptic in that region.
    I don't think North Shropshire is particularly Euro-sceptic compared to places like Cannock Chase, Tamworth, Dudley, North Warwickshire. You're probably getting a higher number of signatures where people are more politically engaged like Paterson's constituency.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

    What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

    This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?
    I think it equally certain that in the event of Leave that within 10 years there would be a strong movement to rejoinn the EU.

    60 years of Euro hokey-cokey is not going to end on June 25th!
    Fat chance. Where does the source of this desire come from?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

    What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

    This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?
    I think it equally certain that in the event of Leave that within 10 years there would be a strong movement to rejoinn the EU.

    60 years of Euro hokey-cokey is not going to end on June 25th!
    Fat chance. Where does the source of this desire come from?
    EFTA/EEA members show no great desire to join the full EU.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    weejonnie said:

    Now 90,000. Still suspect 100000 will come after the News.

    I think it could get a million signatures in time for the 10 o' clock news and it would hardly get a mention....
    No, but it is interesting to see the numbers of the seat map, for instance not only is Andy Burnahm's seat apparently the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester but also Yvette Cooper's in West Yorkshire.

    Owen Patterson's seat in the W.Midlands is no surprise that is apparently the most euroskeptic in that region.
    I don't think North Shropshire is particularly Euro-sceptic compared to places like Cannock Chase, Tamworth, Dudley, North Warwickshire. You're probably getting a higher number of signatures where people are more politically engaged like Paterson's constituency.
    That is why it's a bit difficult to make an assumption based on that map.
    But it looks generally correct at least by region.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    edited April 2016

    Omnium said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.




    Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.

    I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.

    If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.

    So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie... :)


    I always wear a tie pin at work. I think the current fashion for no tie and flapping collar with a suit just slovenly.

    However no jacket or long sleeves at work is uniform policy (bare below the elbows for washing) and a tie flaps around a bit in consequence, particularly when examining patients, hence the tie pin.

    I wear Solovair dealer boots most days too. I do a lot of walking in my job and bouncy soles are very comfy.
    Well tie-pins and tie clips are different animals.

    I happen to work in a place where we have almost no external visitors. I rather think I have a 'pajama' dress code for most of my life currently. I went to a ballet at the ROH recently and dressed to the standard I would have done every day of my life before around 2003 (so just 'the city'), and people just simply failed to get that. (as in it was my 'normal' attire some while ago)

    I've seen nice looking tie pins. I'd not wear one mind you - it clearly damages the tie.

    I wish you the joy of your Solovairs :)
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

    92,094 signatures
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
    Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party
    I doubt it. The Conservatives badly needed a new direction, which Cameron provided. Although I think that Labour's infighting rather than the crash was Labour's biggest vote loser in 2010.
    Davis would not have polled as high as Cameron but I could see a result something like Tory 33%, Labour 29%, LD 27% in 2010
    Possibly, and the beauty of such questions is that we'll never know.

    Part of the problem is that Cameron's presence as a potential PM might have caused or accentuated Labour's problems. Had they been facing Davis or IDS they might have had a few extra points in the polls, and in turn Brown would have had more breathing room. They might not have made many of the mistakes that led to them losing - do you really think McBride et al would have bothered with their sick scheme against IDS or Davis?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
    Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"
    I wonder if a eurozone country will withdraw from the EU but keep the euro.
    They certainly can, but it's tantalizing as a theory of the euro still existing after the EU disintegrates.

    It will be a bit like the Sterling zone or the Franc zone after the corresponding empires ceased to exist, the Euro will probably go for a while longer.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited April 2016
    JohnLoony said:

    As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?


    Watch "White House Down" instead. Much better film.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

    92,094 signatures

    It won't hit 100,000 by 10pm. Shame!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2016
    Nonce Finder General on the case....

    Labour: Cameron's answer on offshore trust 'unacceptable'

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35990100

    Surprised he isn't accusing Blairmore of being a cover for an international paedo ring.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited April 2016

    JohnLoony said:

    As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?


    Watch "White House Down" instead. Much better film.
    London Has Fallen... is that when Dave loses after a long winning streak on Candy Crush? :p
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
    Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party
    I doubt it. The Conservatives badly needed a new direction, which Cameron provided. Although I think that Labour's infighting rather than the crash was Labour's biggest vote loser in 2010.
    Davis would not have polled as high as Cameron but I could see a result something like Tory 33%, Labour 29%, LD 27% in 2010
    Possibly, and the beauty of such questions is that we'll never know.

    Part of the problem is that Cameron's presence as a potential PM might have caused or accentuated Labour's problems. Had they been facing Davis or IDS they might have had a few extra points in the polls, and in turn Brown would have had more breathing room. They might not have made many of the mistakes that led to them losing - do you really think McBride et al would have bothered with their sick scheme against IDS or Davis?
    I think we know that Ed would be PM vs Davis don't we?

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RoyalBlue said:

    STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

    92,094 signatures

    It won't hit 100,000 by 10pm. Shame!
    93,140 it will be touch and go ...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    I'm sure someone will be along shortly to hand wave this away...

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Danny565 said:

    So what did Cameron do with the money he scooped from the offshore tax fund??

    Looks like we've all got to vote OUT to get rid of this dodgy, tax dodging Prime Minister?
    Didn't he say he paid taxes on it?
    Dunno.

    The story keeps changing so often that it's hard to keep track...
    Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on this :D
    I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.

    Pathetic.
    Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.
    Fair enough, although I would call your judgement into question.

    Would you have preferred Brown to win in 2010, or Miliband in 2015, over Cameron? For if the Conservatives had been led by someone like IDS or Davis, they would have lost.
    Post crash the Tories may still have been largest party
    I doubt it. The Conservatives badly needed a new direction, which Cameron provided. Although I think that Labour's infighting rather than the crash was Labour's biggest vote loser in 2010.
    Davis would not have polled as high as Cameron but I could see a result something like Tory 33%, Labour 29%, LD 27% in 2010
    Possibly, and the beauty of such questions is that we'll never know.

    Part of the problem is that Cameron's presence as a potential PM might have caused or accentuated Labour's problems. Had they been facing Davis or IDS they might have had a few extra points in the polls, and in turn Brown would have had more breathing room. They might not have made many of the mistakes that led to them losing - do you really think McBride et al would have bothered with their sick scheme against IDS or Davis?
    The main shift would have been from voters who backed Blair to Clegg rather than Cameron, Davis would have got about the same score as Howard in 2005
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,152
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.

    LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.

    Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
    Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"
    Perhaps, though if even half of the largest party oppose the Euro that is still a big blow to the Eurozone in the Netherlands, one of the EEC's founder members
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Police in Denmark have detained four suspected ISIS operatives and seized weapons and ammunition during raids linked to their arrest in Copenhagen.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3528600/Danish-police-arrest-four-ISIS-suspects-travelled-Syria-seize-weapons-ammunition-raids-linked-addresses.html
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JohnLoony said:

    As far as I can tell, "London Has Fallen" is a sequel to "Olympus Has Fallen". Is it worthwhile watching LHF without having already seen OHF?

    It's not really a sequel - just the same characters and same plot in a different location.

    I went to see it with my wife, and we both really enjoyed it. I believe she liked seeing various UK landmarks blown up. I quite liked what happened to the French...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063
    edited April 2016
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
    Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"
    Perhaps, though if even half of the largest party oppose the Euro that is still a big blow to the Eurozone in the Netherlands, one of the EEC's founder members
    Yeah, but it's something like 80:20 for the country as a whole on Euro membership, so I wouldn't expect any serious moves against it from the Netherlands.

    The country where these is the most Euro-scepticism (as in scepticism of the benefits of the Euro...) is Italy: that's the 50:50 country.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,063
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.

    All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".

    I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.

    To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.

    There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.

    If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
    My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
    Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"
    I wonder if a eurozone country will withdraw from the EU but keep the euro.
    They certainly can, but it's tantalizing as a theory of the euro still existing after the EU disintegrates.

    It will be a bit like the Sterling zone or the Franc zone after the corresponding empires ceased to exist, the Euro will probably go for a while longer.
    Small countries (from Monaco sized up to Estonia or even the Netherlands) tend to be much more Euro-positive than big ones. Simply because - even before they joined the Euro - their governments had to borrow in foreign currencies.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    JJ said - "Possibly, and the beauty of such questions is that we'll never know. "

    Hardly original, but distills everything really.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    94K.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    rcs1000 said:

    Hunt insists he will impose new contract on NHS doctors

    The matter is closed, says the health secretary, who is refusing to budge over the new contract for junior medics as their two-day strike comes to an end

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/07/hunt-insists-he-will-impose-new-contract-on-nhs-doctors

    While I don't feel sorry for doctors in general over this, I do feel for A&E guys. They are seeing a huge pay cut, and they are the speciality with the worst retention rates already.
    Cameron does not need this rumbling on during the EUref.He needs to appreciate the NHS Panzer brigade are next in line for a confrontation,the Consultants.Nurses have had enough too after the bursary ban.He would wise to sack Jeremy Hunt,remove the contractual imposition and do what all governments have had to do with the medical profession-fill their mouths with gold and buy out the contract.
    As a patient all I want is the matter resolved so the doctors go back to working normally.Cameron needs to get a grip to secure this too.Boris Johnson would be my choice of a replacement.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited April 2016
    RoyalBlue said:

    STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

    92,094 signatures

    It won't hit 100,000 by 10pm. Shame!
    "It also emerged last night that the firm which printed the Government’s leaflet is owned by a German company given repeated hand-outs by the European Commission." (Telegraph)

    What was that again about Mr Cameron urging councils to buy British-Made Steel?

    You couldn't make it up.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    weejonnie said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets

    92,094 signatures

    It won't hit 100,000 by 10pm. Shame!
    "It also emerged last night that the firm which printed the Government’s leaflet is owned by a German company given repeated hand-outs by the European Commission." (Telegraph)

    You couldn't make it up.
    Wonder who it was that got the £500k to put the thing together, for something with just 7 pages of text and a few piccies...that is an insane amount.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Omnium said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.




    Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.

    I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.

    If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.

    So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie... :)


    I always wear a tie pin at work. I think the current fashion for no tie and flapping collar with a suit just slovenly.

    However no jacket or long sleeves at work is uniform policy (bare below the elbows for washing) and a tie flaps around a bit in consequence, particularly when examining patients, hence the tie pin.

    I wear Solovair dealer boots most days too. I do a lot of walking in my job and bouncy soles are very comfy.
    Surely a tie, even with a pin, has material implication for HAI?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2016

    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country

    What gets me if the futility of the entire exercise. With the eurozone federalising, and the UK determined not to join the Euro, its only a matter of time, maybe 5-10 years, maybe not even that long, before the differences are too large to paper over, and we will have no choice but to leave. Everything that is true about leaving now will be true then, only more so, it will be a bigger shock, be more economically risky, and we will have more points of contact to unpick and replace. So what do we gain by putting off the evil hour. Its not good for the country, its not good for the EU, the only thing that gets any benefit from it is (briefly) Cameron's place in the history books. Is this what we have come to ?

    This all presupposes the other two elephants squeezing into this very small room, namely migration (and especially migration mandated by the EU) and terrorism don't force our hand earlier. I have often wondered how many acts of terrorism it would take within a short timescale, maybe a couple of months, before freedom of movement is completely politically untenable, I think maybe three. How many sleepers were supposed to be being infiltrated into the EU again ?
    I think it equally certain that in the event of Leave that within 10 years there would be a strong movement to rejoinn the EU.

    60 years of Euro hokey-cokey is not going to end on June 25th!
    Fat chance. Where does the source of this desire come from?
    The 50% + of the population that currently poll for Remain, bolstered by a significant number of Leavers with buyers remorse when they realise that they have been sold a lie...
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    runnymede said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANS

    .

    T
    I actually know a few people who think a narrow Remain is the best for the country
    Yes, in Europe but a clear statement the voters will not accept further integration by the UK
    And you think that either the EU or indeed UK governments would take any heed of that? You're kidding yourself.
    They will have to, like it or not, the Dutch referendum is just further evidence of that, by the end of 2017 Wilders and Le Pen could have come first in the Dutch and French elections and the AfD won significant seats in the Bundestag, the EU ref result could just be the first big wave in a tidal force sweeping across the continent.
    Although it is when remembering that more than half of Wilders supporters agree with the proposition "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands"
    I wonder if a eurozone country will withdraw from the EU but keep the euro.
    They certainly can, but it's tantalizing as a theory of the euro still existing after the EU disintegrates.

    It will be a bit like the Sterling zone or the Franc zone after the corresponding empires ceased to exist, the Euro will probably go for a while longer.
    Small countries (from Monaco sized up to Estonia or even the Netherlands) tend to be much more Euro-positive than big ones. Simply because - even before they joined the Euro - their governments had to borrow in foreign currencies.
    I think it's an interesting thought, because in the absence of free currency or with currency manipulation, in the long run the only route is protectionism or mercantilism as the only tools to stabilize an economy.

    It's not a coincidence that protectionist tendencies are rising globally, it's due to currency manipulations and currency unions distorting global trade to a phenomenal degree.

    In this case if you can't leave the eurozone but you still need to protect your industry from German competition, then leaving the EU and imposing tariffs on German products is an option.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited April 2016
    up another 1K, in 10 minutes.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    I think Dave's bad week is going to get worse. A former Indy journo is publishing something on Sunday that could be rather difficult.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Omnium said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Panama Scandal ALERT:

    https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392

    A bad day for Cameron gets worse.

    THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.

    An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
    Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.

    But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
    No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.

    This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet

    http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg

    This is just naff:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html

    He's just really bad at SHOES.




    Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.

    I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.

    If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.

    So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie... :)


    I always wear a tie pin at work. I think the current fashion for no tie and flapping collar with a suit just slovenly.

    However no jacket or long sleeves at work is uniform policy (bare below the elbows for washing) and a tie flaps around a bit in consequence, particularly when examining patients, hence the tie pin.

    I wear Solovair dealer boots most days too. I do a lot of walking in my job and bouncy soles are very comfy.
    Surely a tie, even with a pin, has material implication for HAI?
    No evidence at all!

    And my hospital has an excellent record on these things. For example no MRSA infections for over a year in a large busy teaching hospital.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I think Dave's bad week is going to get worse. A former Indy journo is publishing something on Sunday that could be rather difficult.

    Don't tell us details, just tell us if it will effect the chances of Remain.
This discussion has been closed.