politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Updated EURef polling tale and a reminder about tomorrow ni
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At some point he will run out of wall, like Blair discovered.MikeSmithson said:0 -
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1167620 -
Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on thisPlato_Says said:
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Being blocked from the Security Council is what you get for starting - and losing - two World Wars....Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not.RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/718085767713669122
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They've started the third - (and are losing it) they just don't know it yet.MarqueeMark said:
Being blocked from the Security Council is what you get for starting - and losing - two World Wars....Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not.RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/718085767713669122
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...and the 1966 World CupMarqueeMark said:
Being blocked from the Security Council is what you get for starting - and losing - two World Wars....Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not.RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/7180857677136691220 -
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg0 -
It links a 49 page document that explains it all in detail....RobD said:
Then it should be clearer about that. It implies we have absolutely no say in global bodies when that isn't the case.Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not. But I think it is talking about things like WTO.RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/7180857677136691220 -
This is true. As long as they are correctly declared to the taxman, there's actually nothing wrong with holding offshore trusts, lots of people do (in fact some on here may have some in their pension schemes). It would have been very much better to have said so to start with.Danny565 said:
He'd've been better off admitting this right at the beginning. The fact it's taken days for this answer to come out makes him look more shifty.Plato_Says said:On the How Not To Do It scale, Number 10 are scoring 10/10 over Cameron's Panama involvement.
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The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1167620 -
Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+MikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.
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Busy updating their 'non partisan briefing papers'?Indigo said:
Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on thisPlato_Says said:0 -
something about a straw and a camelMikeSmithson said:
...and the 1966 World CupMarqueeMark said:
Being blocked from the Security Council is what you get for starting - and losing - two World Wars....Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not.RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/7180857677136691220 -
Osborne can't gain anything much from the EUref, other than his rivals doing badly. His day job is a pretty important one after all.
He just needs to step back really. Get some cheap haircuts rather than his expensively crafted disasters. Mainly just ponder the fact that some Tory voters would prefer Clegg over him as PM. (Tough pill to swallow)
He simply never plays to his strengths. I'm sure he has some, but I've not spotted them. He's bad at flash, and he's bad at boring. He clearly isn't some great economic genius (and he's not claimed that. cf The Buffoon). However he has managed to be trusted by the most successful and nimble politician of our age (Cameron). Moreover he has quietly delivered.
I cannot see that I will ever think that GO is a PM that I'd like to see, but I'm pretty sure that he's better than we all think.0 -
I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.Indigo said:
Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on thisPlato_Says said:
Pathetic.0 -
Yep. It's Two:Nil so far and ready to go again if needed.Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not. But I think it is talking about things like WTO where the EU stands in stead of all the member states, not like the security council and Nato where members stand on their own ( at the moment ).RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/7180857677136691220 -
Hard to fit in a tweet, I agreeIndigo said:
It links a 49 page document that explains it all in detail....RobD said:
Then it should be clearer about that. It implies we have absolutely no say in global bodies when that isn't the case.Indigo said:
Yes and the Germany hate that we are and they are not. But I think it is talking about things like WTO.RobD said:
Are we not a member of the Security Council?Speedy said:
This is more concise:MikeSmithson said:
That's a straw man argument.taffys said:'One of our members, who is a barrister, asked a very good question: 'Other than immigration, which particular areas would you cite as those where sovereignty would most make a practical difference?'
FPT
That would be a good point if the EU were a solid state, decided entity.
But it isn;t. And you are asking me to make a leap of trust towards an organisation that has done little but grab power for 40 years.
I don;t just want to take back control of immigration, I want to take away the levers the EU has to change Britain in the future. David Cameron did not give those levers away, I grant you. But he hasn't brought them back either.
My trust in the EU to deal equitably with the UK or any other country in the future in precisely zero.
https://twitter.com/LeaveHQ/status/718085767713669122
However the summary is wrong, it should be 'sometimes' and orange, not 'no' and red. 0 -
Thanks for the full answer, which is a good one.Indigo said:...
Aside from that, practically we can't set any trade tariffs we want, China put 46% on our steel, we can't retaliate even if we want to, because EU tariffs are set in Brussels, and the chance of convincing 28+ other countries of doing something we want when it means nothing to them, and might cause the problems, is zero.
...
I could go on, but that should do to be getting on with.
On the particular point of tariffs, however, you are being inconsistent. On the one hand you want sovereignty so as to have the freedom to impose tariffs, but in the next paragraph you want to negotiate lots of trade agreements. You can't have it both ways. Once you've signed a free trade agreement, you've immediately given up your sovereignty as regards trade with that country.0 -
I thought exactly the same thing. An appalling choice of footwear.SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.0 -
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1167620 -
Actually I'm not discouraged at all.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
The Chancellor's credibility and popularity has already been shattered over his dismal budget, and the PM's limited credibility is also taking a hit over the Panama Scandal.
Cameron forced to campaign in Universities is a bonus.
And what do Remain have if both the PM and the Chancellor are politically incapacitated ?
Labour are sitting on their hands smiling as Cameron goes down along with Remain, they have no interest in saving Cameron's skin and it shows.0 -
So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.
Peston posted earlier today that he would expect that lots of people will have had share in these kind of investment schemes, including Labour MPs. The question is always if they declared and paid the tax on them.0 -
Something a bit sad about slip ons isn't there. Half way to slippers.SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.0 -
Search for TSE! Where is TSE! Calling TSE!Indigo said:
Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on thisPlato_Says said:0 -
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
Hardly, I have had no time for Cameron for years before the referendum came on the scene. My views of Cameron would make Mr Brooke's views of Osborne rank as a generous tribute.JosiasJessop said:
I'd rather listen to the views of Cameroons than the vapid rantings of so-called Conservatives who want Cameron damaged just because it might help leave in the referendum.Indigo said:
Where have the Cameroon's gone, I think we should know the party line on thisPlato_Says said:
Pathetic.0 -
In indyreft turnout in Scotland was over 80%, at the general election it was 10% lower. Referendums can inflame the passions even more than general elections because it is a simple yes no answer. I would not expect turnout that high but even just taking those certain to vote it will be 60%+ according to many polls. Turnout in the 1975 referendum was around the mid sixties and that was a big yes win, this time it will be neck and neck which will drive up turnout as every vote counts!Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
Why? You retain the ability/freedom to cancel it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Thanks for the full answer, which is a good one.Indigo said:...
Aside from that, practically we can't set any trade tariffs we want, China put 46% on our steel, we can't retaliate even if we want to, because EU tariffs are set in Brussels, and the chance of convincing 28+ other countries of doing something we want when it means nothing to them, and might cause the problems, is zero.
...
I could go on, but that should do to be getting on with.
On the particular point of tariffs, however, you are being inconsistent. On the one hand you want sovereignty so as to have the freedom to impose tariffs, but in the next paragraph you want to negotiate lots of trade agreements. You can't have it both ways. Once you've signed a free trade agreement, you've immediately given up your sovereignty as regards trade with that country.
That's the ultimate sovereignty.0 -
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First time for everything.Alanbrooke said:0 -
It will be at least 10% more than that and working class Leave backers are just as likely not to vote as young RemainersMikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
I don't expect Cameron to be forced to resign like the Iceland PM over this - BUT, hypothetically, if he did, who becomes interim leader while a full leadership contest takes place? Osborne?
And what happens if the leader changes to an Outer halfway through the Referendum Campaign?0 -
So far Cameron has avoided the chicken feed line, I hope he tries it.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.0 -
Oh dear, Cammo letting the side down. Again.MP_SE said:
I thought exactly the same thing. An appalling choice of footwear.SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.0 -
Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.0 -
over 83000 now!0
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We have the right to cancel the current arrangements with the EU. That's what we're voting on on June 23rd.GeoffM said:Why? You retain the ability/freedom to cancel it.
That's the ultimate sovereignty.0 -
Well they will be in an hour once they've had their Prosecco. I estimate 10.30 or a few minutes before.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1167620 -
The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty punyAndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
Still, the carefully-selected shoes seem to be mitigating the damage.0
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Yes I agree with that, but I also said we would be free to only take the trade deals we were happy with, rather than have to accept ones which might disadvantage us because they advantage others. Being bound by an agreement you enter into with your eyes open, and by your own will is one thing, being bound by one foisted on you because someone else wanted it is something else.Richard_Nabavi said:
Thanks for the full answer, which is a good one.Indigo said:...
Aside from that, practically we can't set any trade tariffs we want, China put 46% on our steel, we can't retaliate even if we want to, because EU tariffs are set in Brussels, and the chance of convincing 28+ other countries of doing something we want when it means nothing to them, and might cause the problems, is zero.
...
I could go on, but that should do to be getting on with.
On the particular point of tariffs, however, you are being inconsistent. On the one hand you want sovereignty so as to have the freedom to impose tariffs, but in the next paragraph you want to negotiate lots of trade agreements. You can't have it both ways. Once you've signed a free trade agreement, you've immediately given up your sovereignty as regards trade with that country.
It is really a microcosm of where we are now, lots of people feel the EU was foisted on us because someone else wanted it ("the elite"), I don't know, but I suspect the whole EU thing would have been a lot less poisonous over the years and especially recently if we had an honest vote in 1975 of joining a political union, and not just the "common market", of course we would never had voted for it, which is why they lied.0 -
So why has it taken Cameron so long to come clean? It does not look good.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.
Peston posted earlier today that he would expect that lots of people will have had share in these kind of investment schemes, including Labour MPs. The question is always if they declared and paid the tax on them.0 -
Of course he won't. But you have to admit, if you had to guess that Cameron had had shares in dad biz how much would he have, I think we would have all guessed way higher than £30k. Peston said earlier today that he would expect a lot of MPs to have or had shares in similar funds.MonikerDiCanio said:
So far Cameron has avoided the chicken feed line, I hope he tries it.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.0 -
Facing a firing squad? Who will deliver the coup de grasse?Speedy said:
At some point he will run out of wall, like Blair discovered.MikeSmithson said:
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I have no idea. But it isn't the first time No. 10 media operation has been utter shit. The "its a private matter" was utterly shocking, I have no idea what they were thinking.tlg86 said:
So why has it taken Cameron so long to come clean? It does not look good.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.
Peston posted earlier today that he would expect that lots of people will have had share in these kind of investment schemes, including Labour MPs. The question is always if they declared and paid the tax on them.
You would have thought the best thing would have been the classic Tony Blair move, friendly journo for private interview that is controlled.0 -
That would be delicious.MonikerDiCanio said:
So far Cameron has avoided the chicken feed line, I hope he tries it.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.0 -
SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
Tricky things shoes nowdays though.
I have in the past (and still do) favour the brogue. Nonetheless I mostly wear some ghastly shoes manufactured by Merrells (by appearance). I do that because I walk a lot. My feet are undoubtedly better for a decent shoe choice, and I will happily walk more as a result.
I would contend therefore that an Englishman always chooses the shoe that fits. I base that on a sample of one.
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Reneging on agreements is always a good way to keep friends1GeoffM said:
Why? You retain the ability/freedom to cancel it.Richard_Nabavi said:
Thanks for the full answer, which is a good one.Indigo said:...
Aside from that, practically we can't set any trade tariffs we want, China put 46% on our steel, we can't retaliate even if we want to, because EU tariffs are set in Brussels, and the chance of convincing 28+ other countries of doing something we want when it means nothing to them, and might cause the problems, is zero.
...
I could go on, but that should do to be getting on with.
On the particular point of tariffs, however, you are being inconsistent. On the one hand you want sovereignty so as to have the freedom to impose tariffs, but in the next paragraph you want to negotiate lots of trade agreements. You can't have it both ways. Once you've signed a free trade agreement, you've immediately given up your sovereignty as regards trade with that country.
That's the ultimate sovereignty.0 -
I doubt if most people are even vaguely following the details - they will just have the general impression that Cameron has benefited from his father's dodgy arrangements and was reluctant to admit it. To some extent it's possibly priced in - I'm not sure how much people will go beyond "Tories, what a bunch!" The unusual factor is that a lot of Tories including large chunks of the press have an interest in inflating rather than deflating the story.
But I agree with Indigo that Corbyn needs to pile in on this - it's got beyond the "don't criticise individuals" stage to the point where "Why did it take you so long to come clean?" is actually a reasonable question. Parliament is only back next week though...0 -
Internet access is probably way below average there.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
It's an interesting map, but limited to those who know that there is a petition going on.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Apparently the people of Lincolnshire are most informed.0 -
Why?AndyJS said:
Internet access is probably way below average there.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
Taking 5 attempts to confess to £30k is beyond me.
What were they thinking?tlg86 said:
So why has it taken Cameron so long to come clean? It does not look good.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.
Peston posted earlier today that he would expect that lots of people will have had share in these kind of investment schemes, including Labour MPs. The question is always if they declared and paid the tax on them.0 -
The coup of fat? I think he's on his way to achieving that without any help.OchEye said:
Facing a firing squad? Who will deliver the coup de grasse?Speedy said:
At some point he will run out of wall, like Blair discovered.MikeSmithson said:0 -
Hoping for the ultimate mixed metaphor on Cameron.
When his back's against the wall, he turns around and comes out fighting.0 -
I'd say that it's harder to be passionate about the status quo. Grass is always greener and all that.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.0 -
True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.MikeSmithson said:
Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+MikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Mrs C is way more posh that DC, consider her parents
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Reginald_Sheffield,_8th_Baronet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annabel_Astor,_Viscountess_Astor
0 -
NickPalmer said:
I doubt if most people are even vaguely following the details - they will just have the general impression that Cameron has benefited from his father's dodgy arrangements and was reluctant to admit it. To some extent it's possibly priced in - I'm not sure how much people will go beyond "Tories, what a bunch!" The unusual factor is that a lot of Tories including large chunks of the press have an interest in inflating rather than deflating the story.
But I agree with Indigo that Corbyn needs to pile in on this - it's got beyond the "don't criticise individuals" stage to the point where "Why did it take you so long to come clean?" is actually a reasonable question. Parliament is only back next week though...</blockquote
There must be a possibility that many more on all sides will be drawn into investigations on their tax affairs0 -
Given Jeremy Corbyn's dismal track record at holding the government to account in Parliament, it is probably worse for David Cameron that Parliament is in recess. A swift victory over Jeremy Corbyn would draw a line under it. As it is, the matter is being dragged out.NickPalmer said:I doubt if most people are even vaguely following the details - they will just have the general impression that Cameron has benefited from his father's dodgy arrangements and was reluctant to admit it. To some extent it's possibly priced in - I'm not sure how much people will go beyond "Tories, what a bunch!" The unusual factor is that a lot of Tories including large chunks of the press have an interest in inflating rather than deflating the story.
But I agree with Indigo that Corbyn needs to pile in on this - it's got beyond the "don't criticise individuals" stage to the point where "Why did it take you so long to come clean?" is actually a reasonable question. Parliament is only back next week though...0 -
And how will you vote Mr T? I really have no idea how I will.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
0 -
Maryland Wash Post
GOP
Trump 41
Kasich 31
Cruz 22
Dems
Clinton 55
Sanders 40
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/poll-clinton-trump-lead-in-maryland/2016/04/07/f21637c4-fb3b-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html
0 -
My niece, a Labour voting teacher who publicly and frequently railed against Gove, is surprisingly still undecided on the EU. The EU is simply not a visceral issue in the way it is for Tories of both persuasions. That's why once the May elections are out the way we'll see a massive ratcheting up of the Remain campaign. It is vital the notionally pro EU Labour and Lib Dems turn out or the day indeed will be lost.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.0 -
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.0 -
To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.
If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.0 -
California Field GOP
Trump 39
Cruz 32
Kasich 18
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2530.pdf0 -
You miss the point so badly that it's hard to work out whether your are deliberately trolling or going soft in the head. I sincerely hope it is the former as you have, deliberately or accidentally, got a real talent for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
We have the right to cancel the current arrangements with the EU. That's what we're voting on on June 23rd.GeoffM said:Why? You retain the ability/freedom to cancel it.
That's the ultimate sovereignty.0 -
Everyone made those mistakes based on the unprecedented polling, remember the Lord Ashcroft Constituency Polls ?Casino_Royale said:
True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.MikeSmithson said:
Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+MikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
The Isle of Wight seems to be the epicentre of anti-Cameron agitation.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.0 -
-
If Cameron had come back in February and said "I went with a modest set of reforms and I can't even get those through, the EU has become too unwieldy so with great regret I recommend that we vote to Leave and will seek to join the EEA to remain in the Single Market" then Leave (and Cameron) would have completely walked this.Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.
If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.0 -
YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.0 -
Peston said earlier today that actually there was nothing particularly special or interesting about Ian Cameron's fund structure compared to many hedge / investment funds. He speculated that many MPs will have had or have investment very similar to this, and actually there is nothing wrong with that as long as you declared all your earnings. The "scandal" was the opportunity to do wrong via bearer shares.Big_G_NorthWales said:NickPalmer said:I doubt if most people are even vaguely following the details - they will just have the general impression that Cameron has benefited from his father's dodgy arrangements and was reluctant to admit it. To some extent it's possibly priced in - I'm not sure how much people will go beyond "Tories, what a bunch!" The unusual factor is that a lot of Tories including large chunks of the press have an interest in inflating rather than deflating the story.
But I agree with Indigo that Corbyn needs to pile in on this - it's got beyond the "don't criticise individuals" stage to the point where "Why did it take you so long to come clean?" is actually a reasonable question. Parliament is only back next week though...0 -
I expect turnout in the Valleys will be extremely low.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.
It looks like Leave should be trying for 100% turnout in Lincolnshire!0 -
I've never had monogrammed slippers (or a palace or a wife), but I think when a version of something appears in H&M it loses its cache.SeanT said:
No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.Theuniondivvie said:
Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet
http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg
This is just naff:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html
He's just really bad at SHOES.0 -
Poor areas are less likely to have broadband access.OldKingCole said:
Why?AndyJS said:
Internet access is probably way below average there.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
Osborne's HouseMonikerDiCanio said:
The Isle of Wight seems to be the epicentre of anti-Cameron agitation.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.
0 -
Or it could be that, due to its older population, people are keeping their views to themselves more than in England.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.0 -
Yes did not have all the passion in IndyRef though they may have appeared to by drowning out others. There are many (especially the elderly) who are passionate about the country, my grandfather (English but his ancestry is Scottish) who grew up in WWII and served in the RAF afterwards almost had tears in his eyes asking why anyone was trying to break up his country when I discussed it with him. A whole generation whether Scottish or English fought for this country and believe in it even if younger generations who are out on the streets may be more vocal.HYUFD said:
YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
I doubt anyone has the passion for the EU that my grandfather and so may of his generation has for the UK.0 -
IoW is interesting.MonikerDiCanio said:
The Isle of Wight seems to be the epicentre of anti-Cameron agitation.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.
It has some real Kippery areas that look run down and depressed, but the pubs are full, and it has some astonishingly beautiful areas filled with Tory detached houses.
Then it has hippy, new age communities and groups scattered about the place.
In fact, the Greens came 3rd there and beat both Labour and the LDs.
0 -
Jammed between Cardiff and Swansea? No significant high ground between either.AndyJS said:
Poor areas are less likely to have broadband access.OldKingCole said:
Why?AndyJS said:
Internet access is probably way below average there.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
This isnt the country of George Mallory and Lawrence Oates any more sad to say, people don't believe it taking risks, in chancing their arm to get something better, no one is hungry for a better future any more, they just want to sit in front of Great British Got Talent Idol, keep their head down, and hope that Nanny EU will keep them safe at night. Disappointing.Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.
If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.0 -
Have a great time at the pub tomorrow.0
-
If the other 55% don't turn up, you've won.HYUFD said:
YES had all the passion in indyref too, passion gets you to 45-50%, but you need to win the argument too to get to 50%+1SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
The Remain vote is very soft.
(Interestingly, I think that if it was presented as EFTA/EEA vs EU, it would be won at a canter by Leave. The current mixed messages, and the fact that a lot of EFTA/EEA supporters are EFTA/EEA > EU > Completely Out means that many will vote Remain despite preferring another arrangement. Indeed, I fear Remain will win, because EFTA/EEA is not explicitly on the table.)0 -
Although the numbers are based on constituencies without being weighted by electorate so the Isle of Wight is likely to have a lot more signatories simply due to having such a large number of voters.MonikerDiCanio said:
The Isle of Wight seems to be the epicentre of anti-Cameron agitation.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.0 -
WhippinghamSunil_Prasannan said:
Osborne's HouseMonikerDiCanio said:
The Isle of Wight seems to be the epicentre of anti-Cameron agitation.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.
0 -
"The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
Not surprising. Outside of the Libdems hardly anyone is a Europhile, least of all Cameron who does want us to join the Eurozone or Schengen and according to Clegg thinks the EU parliament id ludicrous. The central claim of Remain is that the EU is the best way to secure and develop our access to the single market. Many of Leave's objections to the EU are shared by Remain.0 -
Is that seriously true today in 2016 and with the era of everyone and their child having a smartphone?AndyJS said:
Poor areas are less likely to have broadband access.OldKingCole said:
Why?AndyJS said:
Internet access is probably way below average there.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
Who won that Tory victory? Who leads Remain?Casino_Royale said:
True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.MikeSmithson said:
Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+MikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
It wouldn't have even been worth Remain bothering to campaign.Philip_Thompson said:
If Cameron had come back in February and said "I went with a modest set of reforms and I can't even get those through, the EU has become too unwieldy so with great regret I recommend that we vote to Leave and will seek to join the EEA to remain in the Single Market" then Leave (and Cameron) would have completely walked this.Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.
If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.
That's what is so silly about this whole charade. We are being played.
Leave, and be done with it.0 -
There are some surprises, look at Wigan which is an ultra safe Labour seat and look at Bolton West which is an ultra Tory marginal, they have the same number of petitioners.RoyalBlue said:
I expect turnout in the Valleys will be extremely low.Casino_Royale said:
Based on that map, it doesn't look like Leave will win Wales.MonikerDiCanio said:
The pitchforks are coming for Dave.MarqueeMark said:
The Tory shires are pissed!AndyJS said:Looks like the petition will easily reach 100,000 tonight.
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
Conversely the Shire and Home Counties look better.
It looks like Leave should be trying for 100% turnout in Lincolnshire!
Andy Burnham's seat seems to be the most euroskeptic seat in Greater Manchester0 -
It is important that politicians have some privacy. It's only political opponents and the sleazy press who want to make something of it. Cameron acted honourably and is clean. I am now more inclined to vote remain in support of Cam 'cos he is basically an honest bloke.Plato_Says said:Taking 5 attempts to confess to £30k is beyond me.
What were they thinking?tlg86 said:
So why has it taken Cameron so long to come clean? It does not look good.FrancisUrquhart said:So as I predicted, Dave got all his ducks in a row before becoming PM, but had previously benefited from father's fund. The media handling of this has been terrible. £30k of shares, tax paid, in the grand scheme of things is extremely modest given how wealthy we know especially Mrs C is (she alone made £400k+ on the old stationary biz when it got sold).
Tony Blair wouldn't get out of bed and answer the phone for £30k.
Peston posted earlier today that he would expect that lots of people will have had share in these kind of investment schemes, including Labour MPs. The question is always if they declared and paid the tax on them.
0 -
It's beginning to feel like 1975 with a few differences.
Like then, there's not even a pretence of a level playing field. Even then I, as a Europhilic youth (oh, alright, 25 then) thought the referendum hugely biased in our favour.
But this time the sides are much more even to begin with.
Then it was Establishment and almost everyone vs a few Loons like Tony Benn.
Now it's the Establishment, the Political Union supporters and the Naïve vs the Experienced, the Cynical and a sprinkling of Loons.
And Cameron, the poster boy for Remain, is taking a beating of his own making.0 -
I haven't disputed Remain will win this because of Cameron.HYUFD said:
Who won that Tory victory? Who leads Remain?Casino_Royale said:
True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.MikeSmithson said:
Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+MikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%.0 -
My ideal result would be Remain by 0.01%!Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, even Richard Nabavi, JohnO and TSE think this. Hell, even Alastair Meeks wasn't thrilled about coming off the fence for Remain.SeanT said:
or... they just won't vote. Which is what (rightly) terrifies the REMAINIANSRobD said:
Still a large fraction of undecideds. As ever, they'll decide the outcome:SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg
The LEAVERS have all the passion. I have met lots of passionate LEAVERS in the last few weeks, and not one single passionate REMAINER.
All you get on the europhile side is a begrudging "oh, yes, I'll probably vote IN, under protest".
I still think REMAiN will win, but I'm seeing headlines like "REMAIN has that in the bag" which is total bollocks. Cameron is clearly a worried man, and is right to be so.
There are solid pro-EU'ers around (like Wodger and Steven Whately) but they are a small, small minority.
If most Brits felt there was a pain-free way out, they'd jump at it.0 -
Your 'the only acceptable (shoe)' surely is based around one's attire. I'm not prone to leopard-skin clingyness, but if I was then clearly an otherwise admirable pair of black brogues would look out of place.SeanT said:
No. The only acceptable slip-on is a velvet loafing slipper, for decadent evenings at home, with one's mistress. Never when out-and-about.Theuniondivvie said:
Not necessarily, Chuck has been known to wear the odd pair of slip ons.SeanT said:
THOSE are not the shoes of a gentleman.Speedy said:Panama Scandal ALERT:
https://twitter.com/VinnyITV/status/718129146119995392
A bad day for Cameron gets worse.
An Englishman ALWAYS laces.
But those loafers do look a bit M&S-y.
This is OK if you are in your palace and about to boff a comely wifelet
http://www.shipton.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/s/-/s-eagle2head-side-600_1_1.jpg
This is just naff:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2187719/Dave-Nick-start-wrong-foot-Cleggs-sandals-Camerons-office-shoes.html
He's just really bad at SHOES.
I would suggest to you that in fact the shoes of a gentleman are those that he finds himself in.
If you are wearing a nice suit then of course you are right. There are all sorts of things associated with such attire. I, for example, hate tie clips - it seems all wrong. However I rather regret the lack of a handy pocket on shirts I bought some years ago now that I use glasses and dress informally.
So long as you can (and do) tie your own bow tie...
0 -
I think broadband access is probably more correlated with age than with wealth.Philip_Thompson said:
Is that seriously true today in 2016 and with the era of everyone and their child having a smartphone?AndyJS said:
Poor areas are less likely to have broadband access.OldKingCole said:
Why?AndyJS said:
Internet access is probably way below average there.Plato_Says said:The petition vote in Port Talbot seat is pretty puny
AndyJS said:
And Wales is probably more likely to vote Leave as a result of the steel crisis.SeanT said:Not sure why so many LEAVERS seem discouraged. These polls are painfully tight for the goverment and the huge 20+ poll leads for REMAIN are consigned to history.
LEAVE are just a couple of migration crises and well-timed terrorist outrages from an improbable victory.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/04/05/port-talbot-town-despair-determined-leave-eu/0 -
Ed Miliband. David CameronHYUFD said:
Who won that Tory victory? Who leads Remain?Casino_Royale said:
True, but in the interests of fairness I could Remind you of how you poo-poo'ed those who predicted a narrow Tory victory, including me and JackW.MikeSmithson said:
Remind us Mike. How many MPs was UKIP going to get at the last general election? I recall you predicting 50+MikeK said:
I believe that turnout will be closer to 47%-50% and that the vast majority of stay-at-homes will be Remain supporters. Hence Leavers will win.Speedy said:
No way turnout is higher than in the GE.HYUFD said:
I am sticking to 52 Remain 48 Leave and turnout 65 to 70%Speedy said:
That we are now arguing about turnout, as it's the Remain campaign's biggest concern, is telling that we both feel this is 50/50 at this point.HYUFD said:
Glastonbury does not really start until the Friday, polling day is Thursday. It is also the same time as the European Football Championships which may distract the Leave inclined working classSpeedy said:As to the point why Cameron trying to convince students to vote Remain is a bit like Corbyn trying to convince the elderly to vote Remain:
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718033421562417152
https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/718034606151352320
Turnout will be the same as a highly publicized contested by-election, around 50%. 0
