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Tonight’s polls in sharp contrast to YouGov’s 10% CON lead – politicalbetting.com
Tonight’s polls in sharp contrast to YouGov’s 10% CON lead – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson’s approval rating as prime minister with Opinium has reached net -18% (32% approve, 50% disapprove), the lowest since the 2019 general election.
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Edit: damn, gazumped...
And that is the unanswered question for both parties as they face the same demands
At least on the 27th we may have some idea
Which there appears to be plenty of currently.
Longer term from rising productivity, that might be trickier.
A lot turns on whether the situation is C41L31 (Carrie can start planning the next round of Downing Street redecoration; I recommend plenty of wipe-clean surfaces and rounded edges) and C41L37 (Starmer is making boring but solid post-vaccine progress; C40L38 is probably enough to make the next government a Coalition of Chaos).
The UC cut will actually take quite a lot of money out of the economy; pretty much every penny of UC gets spent within the month it's paid.
But the beauty is you really don't need to tax it that much at all to get vast amounts of debt-reducing government income.
PS The Tories will never do it properly because... donors.
Hence my comments about Rishi budget
If not maybe you could expand your view
Maybe explain your proposals as I am genuinely interested
And entirely self interest - why should people in the north subside your housing deposit in the south
At the end of the day the Government has to look after their client vote and that means no increase in IHT and no wealth/property tax.
Ergo the only option is to raise taxes further on working people and plan to phase out elderly benefits for future generations, whilst borrowing in the meantime.
"Vulnerable households across the country will be able to access a new £500m support fund to help them with essentials over the coming months as the country continues its recovery from the pandemic.
The new Household Support Fund will support millions of households in England and will be distributed by councils in England, who know their local areas best and can directly help those who need it most, including for example, through small grants to meet daily needs such as food, clothing, and utilities. Cash will be made available to Local Authorities in October 2021."
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-launches-500m-support-for-vulnerable-households-over-winter
Sounds like a bit of a recipe for bureacracy but we'll see.
Opinium on the new boundaries would give Conservatives 333 and Labour 236, so still a small Tory majority of 16.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41&LAB=37&LIB=7&Reform=2&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Deltapoll on the new boundaries would give Conservatives 315, Labour 252 and LDs 8.
So a hung parliament but Boris could stay in power with DUP and Unionist support and if SF don't take their seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=38&LAB=37&LIB=9&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
When they are already skint.
And a primary purpose of UC was supposed to be to reduce red tape. And be done automatically Online. Councils don't even know who is on UC. So there will need to be some kind of advertising budget too.
The idea that this will cover the £20 a week is laughable.
But Tories will love it.
Higher rate pension relief is an obvious target rounded to a flat 25% thereby helping standard rate tax payers but obviously hitting higher rate payers
Still not happening though because... Tory donors.
People on an average wage in most of London and much of the South East need to inherit or have parental assistance to help them be able to afford the deposit and be able to buy a property
I see from Sky News that LAB and LD will not be standing in Southend W. As a moderate working class Conservative I appreciate this from the opposition. I also appreciate the appearance of Keir and the Speaker in Leigh on Sea today.
And I've posted how it will be administered.
Do you think someone will have a bag of cash and just give it to anyone who turns up?
It's piling more logs on the bonfire of red tape.
And not setting fire to it.
So, assets of £1m = £0 Wealth Tax (WT) pa
Assets of £1.5m = £5k WT pac(£500k over threshold x 1%)
Assets of £2m = £10k WT pa (£1m over threshold x 1%)
Assets of £10m = £90k WT pa
Assets of £101m = £1m WT pa
etc.
As @HYUFD reminds us, the raising of the IHT threshold was very popular with Conservative supporters. Not so much because of the amounts to tax paid and saved, but because of what it represented. In many ways, inheritance is a rational time for tax to happen- the deceased has gone to a place where they won't mind and a tax taking a slice of a windfall is less painful than a tax on regular income. But the symbolism grates.
The other tax that falls in the same category is fuel duty. It's been frozen for ages now, to the extent that it's a non-trivial hole in the national finances. We ought to be discouraging driving and encouraging more efficient use of vehicles. But it's untouchable. Partly out of fear of the fuel protests two decades ago, partly because White Van Man is the archetype of a type of Toryism, not to be punished.
Rishi's problem is that the hefty tax rises announced in the Spring Budget (remember those?) and the NI increase announced in September don't look like being enough.
And he's running out of sofas to rummage in for a few more coppers.
The absolute arrogance and entitlement is outstanding.
It is one of several political under review
I find it quite frankly disgusting.
If voters like BigG want more tax and spend they can vote Starmer Labour, that is what Labour is for
And as for scrapping higher rate tax relief, how does that work for DB scheme members and salary sacrifice generally ?
I am a Tory because I believe in the family and inherited wealth in large part
Indeed my main concern is to keep taking my daily pills so I have the decision to make in 24
As long as London remains a global city and attracts foreign investment and large numbers of high earning incomers from across the UK and abroad those born there will not be able to afford to buy there unless they get a high income or inherit.
Londoners who cannot afford to buy in the capital will then move out to the Home Counties to buy in turn pricing out those born in the Home Counties unless they get an above average income or inherit.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/totalwealthingreatbritain/april2016tomarch2018#analysis-by-total-wealth-decile
(see figure 5)
Say on average that means the top 5% have double that (a conservative estimate since the curve gets steeper in the higher deciles) but households are on average two individuals, you come back to something in the >£1m area for individuals equating to the top 5%.
I suspect the Treasury know pretty accuately.
Hint: check under the bed.
I have been buying art since my late 20's. I have quite a collection - mostly painting but some sculpture as well. One of the joys of moving to the Lakes is that I have space to hang some of my bigger paintings. I've inherited quite a bit as well. And I did buy my last painting last year in June.
@Richard_Tyndall
There is another sad - and sadly apposite - anniversary this week. A year ago yesterday marked the day a schoolteacher was beheaded by a terrorist in France - Samuel Paty: a teacher doing his job - just like Sir David Amess.
I note, incidentally, that his attacker is believed - at least according to the Times today - to have been born in the UK.
On a more personal level Husband's throat test results came back and there is no abnormality suggesting anything serious. Which is a relief. Not just for the obvious reason but also because Himself was finding ever more creative ways of playing the "I am probably dying so you must do this for me" card. And I was beginning to find this a teensy bit tiresome.
Also Daughter's chef finally left hospital after seven weeks having had an extremely serious car crash. He will need more operations. But he is lucky to be alive and on the recovery path. It has been an immensely difficult time and he is not yet in a position to work. But he is alive and will get better which is the important thing.
Daughter has now taken on the chef's role as well. That girl's resilience and calmness under pressure is astonishing. Son has been appointed Front of House Manager where I - newly promoted to waitress, potato peeler and chips maker and, get this, pudding chef (sundaes, Eton Mess and syrup puddings my speciality) - have discovered that he too has the Cyclefree bossiness gene. Quite right too.
I am in London next week for work. I shall check out all the excitement on offer.
It gets better and better!
Which is why he won't, at most he will fiddle with some reliefs.
If you are so desperate to raise IHT and for wealth taxes off to Starmer Labour with you!
Lockdown has ended, furlough has ended and hospitalisations have fallen sharply. There are no extra funds needed beyond those already given and climate change has sod all to do with public spending but replacing fossil fuels with renewables which we are world leaders in anyway. Otherwise it is getting the US, China and India to do something as they will have far more impact on it than we would
There are none so blind as those who will not see
If you want to raise IHT and impose vast wealth taxes you have no place in the Tory Party
Cameron and Osborne forced Brown to postpone a 2007 election because of their popular proposed IHT cut and won the 2015 election in large part to implement the IHT cut with a Tory majority.
May lost her majority in 2017 because of proposing to take her core votes houses away. Boris is not as stupid as you are or May was and knows who his core vote is
But all your points are answerable as part of an actual policy:
Pension pots - I'd say exclude until crystalised, there are existing rules for that (which can also be used for DB pensions - if the LTA rules are wrong (which I agree they are) they need fixing anyway). If you draw down or buy an annuity you convert your pension pot into an income (as was always intended). If you choose to take it as a lump sum well, tough titty, you have a potentially WTable asset.
ISAs I'd be inclined to include regardless, they were only sold as free from income and CGT imo. But really, if you exclude them, fair dos - you could still include values invested from 2022/3 onwards. Or exclude the completely - they're not holding the bulk of the wealth of the super-wealthy who are the target of this.
VCTs - definitely include as an asset. Fecking scam for the wealthy imo.
I being from a poor working class background have managed to buy a house in London by my own achievements and without the help of mummy or daddy money which is a good job as there wasn't any.
@HYUFD did you buy your flat in Epping fully on your own resources?
Your policies on inheritance deny social mobility and you really have no idea whatsoever.