Categories
3 Tory MP climate sceptics get the Greenpeace treatment – politicalbetting.com
3 Tory MP climate sceptics get the Greenpeace treatment – politicalbetting.com
The above polling commissioned by Greenpeace represents an interesting approach to campaigning particularly because in two of the seats, Wokingham and Wycome, the incumbent MPs are out of step with their constituents as well on Brexit and they both faced strong challenges at GE2019.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Conservatives 39%
Labour 35%
LDs 9%
Greens 5%
SNP 4%
RefUK 3%
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1447508341022986241?s=20
EC gives a hung parliament on those numbers with the Conservatives on 319 seats.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=39&LAB=35&LIB=9&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
So Boris would need to persuade the DUP to back him to stay PM
Labour need to be gaining not dropping as well
And who cares about electoral calculus, it is wholly irrelevant to GE24
For Starmer could become PM in a hung parliament with SNP, LD, PC and Green and SDLP and Alliance support even if Labour do not win most seats let alone a majority.
EC gives an accurate reflection of how the polls translate to seats
The CO2 suppliers agree a deal with the fertiliser manufactures to affirm their supplies, steel plant to reopen in Rotherham, and taxpayers pounds will not be used before shareholders and investors take a hit on businesses having energy problems, the fuel shortages crisis is all but over, Boris is having a weeks holiday but retains control of the country, and the EU and the UK in genuine talks to resolve the NI protocol, so not everything is doom and gloom
But has anyone seen *Keir since his speech two weeks ago by the way ?
* I understand he was on tv last week
Tidal lagoon power is a clean energy solution, that's not the kind of thing Greenpeace are interested in.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
‘US has already lost AI fight to China, says ex-Pentagon software chief’
https://www.ft.com/content/f939db9a-40af-4bd1-b67d-10492535f8e0
A combination of complacency, lethargy and Woke crap - ‘omg GPT3 might be racist’ - means the west has handed the race to AI to China, and it may already be too late to catch up.
If China dominates AI it dominates the world like no power before it
https://order-order.com/2021/10/11/philip-hammond-joins-crypto-start-up-as-senior-adviser/
Presumably people who work for these firms get paid in their own crypto currency...
For them it is simple - restrictions on labour = wages up = prices up hurrah! Let's all pay ourselves more.
They ignore (to be charitable) or do not appreciate that restrictions on labour will shift the demand curve leftwards which will have an effect on prices and hence an equilibrium will be reached at a lower price point hence profitability will decrease hence wage rises will reverse hence we are back where we started.
And it isn't really even about ethics.
It's about giving contracts to the highest-donor; eking projects out to turn decades into dollars, and failing to see what has happened in China in the last decade (let alone the last 30 years).
1. Mask wearing on the tube down dramatically, despite TfL announcements saying you have to wear masks.
2. Mask wearing everywhere else just about non-existent.
3. Uber has got to the stage of its business model where, having attempted to drive other players out of the market, has now raised its prices dramatically around 10% difference with black cabs.
4. Everywhere is busy.
It was just, do you want to spend lots of money on our issue, or do you want to bankrupt yourself on our issue? Or don't you know?
But yes, AI is clearly an area where the West is surrendering technological leadership to China. Hardly surprising when you look at the resources that China puts into research in this area. Although I'm not sure why humanity is competing with itself to bring the singularity closer. Our robot overlords won't care who created them.
If you are going to use examples such as "chest feeding" etc, please also cite the damage/harm/global implications in such usage.
Google Greenpeace and tidal. I won't bother linking for you.
Unless you follow some particularly batshit rive gauche wazzock who thinks the theory of relativity is in fact merely a phallocentric consensus of the patriarchy.
I should add it has nothing to do with wokeness and a lot to do with organisation
FPT Article 16 states that "Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation." It would therefore be very hard to argue that the removal of ECJ oversight, for example, would constitute a permissible safeguard measure, given that ECJ oversight is not, in itself, responsible for any of the problems that have arisen.
I'm not clear on this.
Is Frost asking that the ECJ be taken out of the NIP, or out of any role in the Good Friday Agreement (does it have one in that)?
AFAICS the ECJ role in the NIP is quite firmly circumscribed, so its a minor point unless the demand is symbolic.
Can anyone clarify?
Bloody sexist laws of aerodynamics.
In case you've forgotten we've had a conversation recently along the lines of saying that 300,000 HGV drivers can't do the work for 400,000 drivers - and I said that's true, but if the price for drivers goes up recruiting eg 50,000 new drivers then 350,000 drivers can do the work of 350,000 drivers.
Demand going down is an inevitable consequence of price changes, but since demand is greater than supply at the minute that's required to reach equilibrium it isn't a flaw.
The Conservatives need at least a 6 to 7% lead over Labour or more as they got in 2015 and 2019 to be sure to win a majority again for starters
But if wages do rise, which can certainly be a good thing (your wages up 4.1%, inflation up 4.0% happiness scenario), where does that leave our export competitiveness.
You are a trained economist but only choose to see the factors that suit your argument.
That model does not really fit with scaling to the size of the founders/funders egos/requirements as, once excess capacity is soaked up (and especially if this happens before the economies of scale kick in for operations), then you do need to price in the capital costs of the assets and the need to pay a living wage, not just cover marginal costs of fuel and hourly wage.
https://mashable.com/article/blue-origin-rocket-replica
That's not quite the same as a simple "taxpayers pounds will not be used".
https://estesrockets.com/blue-origin-new-shepard/
"To boldly go where a few men no man has been before!"
Anecdatum: in my 10:00 biology lecture, 95% mask observance by students. In the 11:00 criminology lecture that followed, about 5% (and LOTS of coughing and spluttering). Has anyone else noticed discipline-related patterns of mask wearing? Someone could do an easy study of this!
https://twitter.com/matthewcobb/status/1447535683975974917
It is an economic truism that there is no fixed amount of jobs or labour. We've supposedly been "short of labour" for the best part of twenty years since very generous in-work benefits and free movement for Eastern Europe were introduced by Brown. In that time our population has increased by ten million people. If we're "short of labour" then how come the ten million people who've arrived haven't filled the shortage?
Because you can't fill a shortage via immigration on aggregate, any more than you can cause job losses on aggregate by having immigration either (the "they're stealing our jobs" fallacy).
If you import 100k new HGV drivers, and new abattoir staff, and new everything else, then those drivers and everyone else would increase aggregate demand and lo and behold there will still be a labour shortage. Then we'd be back to saying 400k drivers aren't enough to do the job of 500k.
The reason there's a shortage isn't because there's a shortage of people, its because the prices are out of equilibrium. Trying to fill the shortage by bringing in more people hasn't fixed the root cause of the problem as to why prices are out of equilibrium (since its not just 1 sector needing people) so the problem has never been resolved.
We jump through considerable hoops to ensure that the ethnic identities of our representatives are broadly in proportion to the population at large - it doesn't seem unreasonable to me that it should be desirable that the views of MPs are roughly in proportion to the population at large. Which implies a voice for minority opinions such as climate scepticism, albeit a minority one. Which by accident or design appears to be what we have.
And road haulage is a particularly acute area where - like it or not - driver productivity is going to take a hit in a post-Brexit world, because British drivers (and to a lesser-extent EEA ones) are going to have more empty loads. Now, at some point the world will change as we implement autopilot type systems (initially for highways, but presumably for an increasing number of things), but that is still some way off.
Fortunately, this is only a very small part of the overall costs of a business. Still, it will need to be shared our across the economy in terms of higher prices and lower profits.
If you don't want reflections on poll results on here then I suggest you find another website as that is rather much of the point of this one
Wait, what?
So, we could (and likely would*) have a deniers party. Fine.
*Or would we? Do countries with PR tend to have at least one party that supports this view?
Within healthcare, I think you'll find variations in compliance based on specialty: I am fairly certain you'd find higher adherence to correct PPE use and social measures among anaesthetists, critical care nurses, and pulmologists as opposed to, say, orthopaedic surgeons.
It was a simple one - first of all, plenty on here are lauding the fact that eg immigrants returning to whence they came has resulted in wages increasing for the remaining indigenous population. However immigrants leaving the UK will have an effect on aggregate demand, thereby nullifying any supposed benefit in higher wages, and thereby shifting the demand curve leftwards.
Alternatively, under your Micawber scenario of wages rising by 4.1% and inflation of 4.0% (us all paying ourselves more - hurrah) then first of course no one is any richer and there will be losers whose wage rise <4% - or ok a real wage rise of 0.1% (2x hurrah!) - and secondly our export competitiveness takes a huge hit.
Most MPs went to Russell Group universities, most of the public did not even go to university, so obviously MPs will be more reflective of the views of the educated classes rather than the average person on the street on most issues.
That is in keeping with a Burkean view of representative rather than direct democracy
As we all know Tolerance Of Heresy = Heresy.
So, in the interests of truth, justice, forgiveness and the good of his soul, we must burn him alive.
You tried to playdown the fact that the biggest department store in Romford has been bought by two Muslim businessmen, whose current businesses are worth about £20k, for about £12m (who put up the rest of the money I wonder?), and the third floor is going to be a mosque, by saying "No mention of a mosque"
Now, having seen the advert for an Imam to conduct the five daily prayers, rather than hold your hands up and say "Oh you were right, it is a mosque" its "Perhaps what I'm really saying is that I'm not that bothered in your repeated prods, and I should have ignored the first one."
Of course, its easy to wish you'd not bothered when you''ve been proven wrong, and you probably should have ignored the first one rather than argued with no evidence and got it tits up
It is surprisingly easy, we all have a style. What is more surprising is how robotic and repetitive some commenters are, such that you can not only guess the identity of the commenter, but you can predict what they will say next, after those first 2 sentences, sometimes down to the precise word.
Two extreme examples are Kinabalu on the left, and HYUFD on the right. No offence guys, but I suggest you are actually bots on Russia's SputnikGPT-3 in Chelyabinsk, autocompleting your comments following the prompt of a prior comment - as that is how GPT3 works. It is basically "autocomplete on crack"
That raises a further question, one I have mentioned before. What if ALL intelligence is just autocomplete? We think we have original thoughts, ideas, concepts, but maybe all of us - not just the twin droids kinabalu and HYUFD - are just a bunch of algorithms, responding as we must?
If all intelligence is just autocomplete, then AI is already here, and it is called GPT3, and it only going to get more intelligent
Here's a fascinating essay exploring that exact same idea that I had last year. Or, I should say, that idea I thought i had, in reality it was just me autocompleting the new reality of Natural Language Programming
https://www.nplusonemag.com/issue-40/essays/babel-4/
There's an awful lot of water to flow under the bridge yet, and some weather forecasts imply a flood that's going to wash the bridge away.
However, it's useful to convert percentages into seats and to remind ourselves that a Conservative lead in votes over Labour doesn't automatically translate into a Conservative majority. That's a direct consequence of there being several anti-Conservative parties.
We were discussing house price movements relative to income, and in particular where to start measuring on the Nationwide price-to-incomes scale. We were using the average for 2003 as our starting point... but the EU 8 didn't join until May 2004.
AirBnB is the answer to the following requirement - I don't want a hotel room with catering. I want a complete flat/house with bedrooms, shared living space and self catering.
It is noticeable that a considerable number of similar arrangements to AirBnB have sprung up - and a growth area is short stay self service apartments, purpose built.
How would you describe Boris Johnson's communication style
51% Passionate
42% Not Passionate
How would you describe Sir Keir's communication style
35% Passionate
52% Not Passionate
Boris leads by 16 Gross Positives and 26 Net
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1447506888921395207?s=20
Worth a point or two in a GE campaign, that's why you dont just bung in the latest VI and say "This means it's a hung parliament..." etc
We must be cruel, to be kind.
{Sir Thomas Moore sighs sadly and orders another round of kicking for Bilney}
Until just now.
We’ve been directly told in the last year that there is definitely ultra tech in our skies and oceans, which either belongs to adversaries of the West or non human intelligence / life forms. And everyone shrugged.
People aren’t going to listen too hard to a senior Pentagon official if he says the US has surrendered technological dominance to China and that a point will be reached (or may already have been reached) when their lead will be insurmountable. Forever.
Cognitive dissonance innit. Much more comfortable to talk about IDS’s majority instead.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/10/climate-scepticism-still-rife-among-tory-mps-poll
(smallish sample, don't know how representative etc etc - nor do I have polling for general public opinions on the same question)
They don't like people who do not-Greenpeace-think.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/climate-crisis-duncan-smith-conservative-b1934219.html
But, we are capable of making entirely new connexions between data and concepts that we have not previously made. That is the essence of creativity and innovation. And we do that best at the umbra between conscious thought and empty-mindedness.
I guess you could write an algorithm for that, but then you'd also need a screening mechanism to eliminate all the nonesense 'ideas', otherwise you'll look like an idiot or a bot.
Out of interest, where do you think I fit on the bot scale? LOL
Existentially, it frightens him
It is not relevant to GE 24 no matter how you protest
Our uni approach to masks is that the students wear them to protect the lecturers. They are not doing it anywhere else, so the study should be which academics get ill...
That the climate isn't warming? I can see it with my own eyes, and measurements of temperature seem to back up this impression very convincingly. Do they think that this is all lies?
That the climate is warming but it's nothing to do with human activity? This seems even less plausible. The planet seems to be warming up at unprecedented speed and at a time that correlates perfectly with human activity that models predict should be having this effect.
That the greenhouse gases theory isn't correct? The story seems highly plausible, whether conceptually or if you put it through a complex climate model.
That scientists don't understand their own models and instruments? It's possible, but seems implausible that some random uninformed punter understands them better.
That scientists are engaged in a vast conspiracy? Unlikely if you understand how science operates. If anyone was going to fund a conspiracy here, fossil fuel interests seem most plausible - they have deep pockets and strong vested interests.
That the whole thing is real but there's no point doing anything to stop it? This is the craziest take of all, if you actually think about what life on earth would be like with say a 3 or 4 degree temperature increase.
So, like I say, these people are a mystery to me. People are entitled to their own opinions of course, but not their own facts.
What does this mean Mike? Conservative MPs wont be able to threaten the public with "Corbyn might be PM" or the Greenpeace types wont have a Green would be PM as LotO?
Those who live in Wokingham might not care too much about the bills, but those in Warrington and Workington certainly do.
Of course it isn't really understanding, it is just wires and chips blah blah
You're not particularly bot-like, to me, but you could see that as an insult, as it might mean you don't have a distinctive writing style
I do recommend that brilliant essay. The woman that wrote it went through the exact same thoughts and reactions that I had, when I first encountered the uncanniness of GPT3, early in the pandemic. Odd. Perhaps we have the same algos
Hat tip to @IshmaelZ, who is reasonably inscrutable.