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Boris Johnson isn’t under threat – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson isn’t under threat – politicalbetting.com
Under Boris Johnson the Tory poll lead seems untouchable. Untroubled by queues for petrol, supply chain issues, inflation increases, regular scandals, foreign policy mishaps, the list of things which sunk previous governments but barely scratches this one goes on and on. Many people conclude, quite reasonably, that Johnson is central to this appeal and under him the Tories are strong favourites to win another majority at the next election.
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Has any Prime Minister ever had such a bad reaction to a conference speech as we saw this week?
Has any Prime Minister ever delivered such a thin speech that was so much of nothing?
Has any Prime Minister ever had such great expectation injudiciously built up by themselves to deliver on?
Has any Prime Minister ever had absolutely no money to play with to deliver on expectation?
Has any Prime Minister since the 70s had as big a crunch to deal with as the one coming?
He’s also, as a marmite politician, not going to add many new converts on, those who currently dislike him really do, his support can only go down in the coming years. A Classic House of Cards, there one minute gone the next?
If the Tory party is capable of defenestrating Thatcher when they decided it was in their interest to do so, they would certainly defenestrate Boris if circumstances dictate.
It appears that the Johnson administration is busy removing every process and weakening every institution that could place a check on its decisions, as Ms Cyclefree explained the other day.
This leaves the Conservative Party at liberty to receive "donations" from all kinds of foreign regimes and tax dodgers. Britain and British interests are being sold off or even given away to these foreigners.
So I am not so sure how the British people will react when they realise that their heritage has been sold off by Johnson's Conservatives.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/58852217
People didn't expect a perfect Brexit. The Europhiles had spent decades sewing us into the fabric of the EEC --> EU such that it was MEANT to be impossible for us to leave. But the voters gave the Government a single, simple instruction: get us out the EU regardless. Starmer said, er, no. Boris said righto - and did.
One of the candidates for PM next time has listened to the people and done as instructed. The other did everything he could, for years, to thwart them.
Look no further for the reason Boris will win next time out.
A weird phenomenon that can’t end well.
The unfavourable reaction to his conference speech suggests press and party are waking up to what some have been saying for years. Boris is not a typical Conservative in the mould of Major, Cameron and May, let alone Mrs Thatcher (whether he harks back to a pre-Thatcher era is moot). Worse, Boris won the 2019 election by hijacking the popular parts of Labour's 2017 near-miss. Until now, Boris's enthusiasm for the active state and public investment has been masked by Brexit and Covid. At conference, however, the party started to realise that rather than a plan, Boris has a distinctly un-Conservative wishlist and no discernible route to achieving it.
So we have a party in thrall to Boris and his electoral appeal but not his politics. When the polls change, if the polls ever do change, that is, then Boris might well hand in his papers and retire to the reopened American lecture circuit.
And going back to yesterday's thread, this might also increase the chances of Boris calling an early election.
Brit winning US Open = massive story.
Brit losing a match at Indian Wells = wait, what's Indian Wells?
I thought to myself... Hispanic buying.
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acscentsci.1c00724#
Could end over reliance on China.
F1: light rain in Istanbul. May or may not be there for qualifying.
Hamilton has a 10 place grid penalty, and Sainz is at the back of the grid (engine stuff).
Ministers will announce plans for levies on gas bills to fund low-carbon heating within the next fortnight despite rising prices, The Times has been told.
The government will publish a new strategy with a carbon pricing scheme that could push gas bills significantly higher.
The strategy, which will be published before the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow next month, commits the government to cutting the price of electricity, which is significantly higher than gas. It will seek to end “price distortions” by removing green levies from electricity bills over the next decade and imposing new charges on gas bills.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-crisis-gas-levy-gets-green-light-as-factories-warn-of-closures-bfft8kv2w
Boris Johnson is a self-absorbed, short-termist, spendaholic buffoon. Corbyn is and was a far left lunatic. I'll take an idiot over a socialist/communist any day of the week.
Johnson is less bad than Corbyn in the same way Stalin wasn’t as bad as Mao.
🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/oct/09/cambridge-colleges-accused-exploiting-gig-economy-tutors
… Postgraduate supervisors said that although they enjoyed teaching the supervisions and considered them valuable experience, they struggled with the high workload, low pay and contract insecurity.
One supervisor said he relied on the work to top up his £12,000 stipend, but had all his hours cut suddenly. “PhD students are forced to live in Cambridge on very low wages, and as a necessity to make ends meet we take on teaching,” he said. “But I had no protection when I was told I would not be given any more [work].”
Another supervisor said the need to gain teaching experience by delivering undergraduate supervisions had become a “vicious cycle” in the early stages of academic careers, since spending time teaching makes it hard to find time for research. “I wonder whether it’s worth staying in academia to get treated institutionally so badly,” he said.
Mary Newbould, who has worked as a supervisor since finishing her PhD in 2007, said that despite being employed for an average of 25 hours of supervision a week during term time, which corresponded to a 75-hour working week including preparation, she typically earned about £10,000 a year, and had accrued no pension...
Mr. Doethur, on that, we disagree. If the Conservatives replaced the PM with someone who marched alongside swastika banners and pictures of Hitler and Himmler, I'd vote Labour.
They won't, because fascism isn't treated nearly as softly as lunacy of the far left variety.
Mr. JohnL, the PM spends far too much yet looks like a model of restraint compared to the madness of Corbyn (how many tens of billions did he want to throw at the WASPI whiners?). Not to mention how freedoms have been cracked down upon. It'd be significantly worse, as per some other countries, had the far left had its red hand on the tiller of the state.
Mr. Observer, the vote to leave the EU came about in a referendum. I'm surprised you didn't notice that.
The PM's a child who will say anything for a titter. A claim he's actually racist doesn't stack up against his Cabinet appointments.
But if it makes you feel better to pretend a man who marched alongside banners glorifying genocidal far left tyrants is of the same ilk as a childish jester, so be it.
The fun thing is, Johnson really is unworthy to be in the Cabinet. Yet still an order of magnitude better than Corbyn. The equivalent of the ex-Labour leader is a fascist, and while Johnson has a laundry list of character flaws, being a fascist is not one of them.
Let's hope it doesn't end, over reliance on China!
https://twitter.com/LouDC_/status/1446172355152207876
For the record, I wouldn't touch either with my 45 foot pole.
I won't be voting for him, not least because I think the LD will be the challengers in my seat, but while Starmer is uninspiring, he is not repellent.
However, you're categorically wrong. Johnson's flaws are enough to make him unworthy of high office, yet pale beside Corbyn's.
Mr. Jonathan, that is a very fair point. Johnson's lack of morals and love of spending (both personally and politically) is a poisonous cocktail.
What would happen if the CP win another majority but Johnson loses his own seat?
(And this bet would still win, of course.)
I suspect he'd ennoble himself and be PM from the Lords or someone will be forced to give up a very safe Tory seat like Mansfield to allow a by election to enable the PM to return to the House of Commons.
Wasn’t the argument that the EU wasn’t encroaching on sovereignty?
I’d read an interesting article that essentially made the point the EU needed to be clear about its intentions going forward -a federal Europe- and build consensus from that point onwards. Seems to me the days of continual stealthy “ever closer union” are moving away from it..
India is now the largest shareholder.
https://spacenews.com/south-koreas-hanwha-enlarges-space-focus-with-300-million-oneweb-investment/
… Satellite broadband startup OneWeb has secured $300 million of strategic investment from Hanwha, the South Korean conglomerate with plans for its own megaconstellation.
Hanwha bought an 8.8% stake in OneWeb through its defense division Hanwha Systems, which acquired British antenna startup Phasor Solutions last year as part of its growing space ambitions.
U.K.-headquartered OneWeb expects regulatory approvals to complete the Hanwha transaction in the first half of 2022, bringing its total investment since emerging from bankruptcy protection in November to $2.7 billion.
The startup has said it only needed $2.4 billion to fund its initial constellation of 648 satellites in low Earth orbit.
It reached that in June, after Indian telecom company Bharti Global doubled its investment to $1 billion to secure what would have been a 38.6% stake before Hanwha’s announcement.
The U.K. government, French satellite operator Eutelsat and Japanese internet giant Softbank were each in line for just under 20% after making their own investments. ..
As for laughing at racist jokes. I am sure I have done that in the past. I am indeed over 50 and grew up in a very different world. I hope I have learned a bit along the way.
Mr. Eagles, while the Conservatives aren't as good at axing leaders as once they were (pussyfooting about over May was a mistake) they'd surely take the opportunity in such a case to toss the leader overboard, no?
This is a new election, and voters have short memories and attention spans, as well as having both buyers remorse and ingratitude. They cannot be won over by old arguments, but rather want to hear new things.
Consider his approach to getting a significant controversial tax rise to fund the NHS, sorry social care, OK let's be honest, the NHS, through. All done in a week, zero ministerial resignations, it's probably a bad plan but They Salute With Both Hands Now.
Or his approach to choosing a cabinet, where loyalty to King Boris is all.
So he'll be blooming hard to depose. He's made sure of that.
But, unlike other PMs, he's not really there to do things (Thatcher, Blair) or serve (Cameron, May). He's there to be King Boris and to be hailed. So what happens when "We hail King Boris" becomes "We hate King Boris"?
We don't know, because it hasn't happened yet.
But unless this time is different, it inevitably will, possibly quite soon if the money runs out.
The OneWeb investment has turned out considerably better than originally feared, if only because most of the funding is coming from elsewhere.
But the war is undeniably here with ministers now saying that the effects aren't the Bad Thing we all feared but are actually a celebration as parts of industry and the society they support get bombed.
The poll leads have been a head-scratcher to some. But people hold onto past beliefs and hopes (often against hope) long after its clear that times have changed. Its possible people will keep being deluded. But if they say "enough" Johnson will be gone faster than you can say discarded lovechild.
When he goes, it will be like a change in government, as when the Tories have regenerated before.
Even non loyalist Tories have claimed it is racist to be concerned about donations from Putin linked Lubov Chernukhin as she is a British citizen.
Online, there seemed to be some shade thrown on the deal by Musk and SpaceX fans. Odd, that ...
(There seem to be some so-called 'Team Space' people who are really Musk-only people. Anything not emanating from their hero's various orifices is to be denigrated. It's particularly funny when they slag off NASA, when NASA has helped SpaceX enormously over the years in various ways...)
This mooted new tax on gas would be one such circumstance. Or the sugar tax. Or the desire to abolish internal combustion engines and go carbon neutral by 2035. Or the high spending (which was around even before the pandemic kicked in).
But Labour mostly wants more tax and spending.
If the Conservatives had a rival on the right, they'd be in deep trouble.
Any immediate post BoJo cabinet will distinctly flimsy, and everyone knows it.
Which helps cement Johnson's strong but brittle grip on power.
Developers here should be done for fraud. It is a simple con. Blaming covid delays when accepting money last month and failing to provide what you promise is a pathetic excuse.
Nothing will happen to the developers, except big bonuses all around.
As they keep pointing out, if the changes are the plan then why hasn't anything been done to prepare for it? If we now have a point-based migration system to decide who we let in why isn't it being used as billed to bring people in we need? If the government cares about shortages and the impact of rising prices and cuts to UC why does it deny they are a problem and do nothing?
I think Brexit has broken that rule.
Whether remainers or leavers, whether accepting the result or not most are either pro Boris or anti Boris based on what he did on Brexit still.
If we had a better political class it would be different. But when you have a combination of near mindless 'brand loyalty' coupled with a terrible political media that focuses on trying to scalp individuals rather than scrutinise legislation it naturally puts off a lot of people who might otherwise be interested in serving their country.
I think him moving the party to the centre ground by dishing Labour on some areas is a good move and again probably needed that sort of Teflon populist front man to pull it off.
Unfortunately now he’s “sold” the deal we desperately need someone serious to actually get things done and to attempt to make things work. The time for a salesman is passed and now we need an engineer to make the product properly.
I would really love Boris to step down to spend more time with his future earnings and let someone take over who doesn’t want adulation and doesn’t see everything as a jolly lark - we’ve got away with it to an extent so far but I can’t see him delivering the harder yards well.
Tariff reform from 1903 to 1932 was frequently compared to the travails of the Tories over Europe from 1989 to date (E. H. H. Green and Robert Blake spring to mind). I wonder if the outcome could be similar - that it shores up the base to the extent it’s very hard for any other party to win a majority for the next 30 years except under very exceptional circumstances.
Also wrong in the sense that the number of issues that don't have solutions, of which inflation, NHS, skill/labour shortage and climate disaster and energy are only five, is mounting.
Two things can be said for Boris: he wants to go at his timing, no-one else's. And if he wants to stay he won't go quietly.
if you want to back a horse that will give you a run, and if you conclude that he wants to do more than 5 years, then back Boris. The rest is guesswork. I put it at less than 33%, more than Quincel's 10%.
PS Who do we want as PM if and when China/Taiwan gets violent?