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Can Starmer get a conference boost? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Maybe we are just lucky that we are so shit at exporting to China.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Max is right, regrettably.

    If the Germans don't want to be classed as a country that can be sold to the highest bidder, then maybe they should stop electing and re-electing governments that are prepared to sell out to the highest bidder?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited September 2021
    Aslan said:

    Biden administration is quite confusing...its all "only america" on one hand, retreating back, and on the other not.

    Or maybe they are just pulling out of pointless unwinnable quagmires so they can focus on America's genuine strategic interests.
    But even during getting out of Afghanistan, there was quite a lot of Only America. Biden for instance failed to even name check the likes of the UK and France in a number of press conferences, and reports US didn't tell people what they were doing and a lot we are only going to do x, stuff the rest of you.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    But I was told the UK was no longer trusted by foreign countries, we had burned all our bridges and we were internationally isolated?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    China may have forced Biden's hand by responding* to AUKUS by putting in the TPP application

    CPTPP with the UK and USA in it would be an incredible counterbalance against China which is exactly what Obama had designed it to be but even more with us there too. And fantastic for the UK too both geopolitically and economically. Would unambiguously crush the Brexit debate stone dead.

    * May have been coincidental but a downright odd coincidence if so.
    The Obama plan was to have effectively three free trade agreements that the US led - NAFTA (with Mexico and Canada), TPP (with the countries of Asia and Australiasia) and TTIP (with the EU).

    Neither the US nor the EU seems particularly keen on reviving TTIP, but maybe (in an ideal world) the TPP becomes the de facto free trade bloc for the liberal democracies of the world.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    I think you are diagnosing the wrong cause. Germany's overriding lesson they took from the 20th Century is to not upset any great powers. Get on with everyone important. Avoid wars through dialogue.
  • Leon said:

    France still taking this REALLY well

    "After calling the Biden administration’s failure to include France in the national security pact with the United Kingdom and Australia a “stab in the back,” French officials on Thursday canceled a gala at their Washington embassy, a new report says.

    "French officials canceled the Friday affair, which was set to commemorate the “240th Anniversary of the Battle of the Capes” at the embassy and on a French frigate in Baltimore, Maryland, according to the New York Times.

    "The cancellation comes one day after French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called the newly announced AUKUS nuclear submarine pact “a stab in the back” to the country. "

    https://nypost.com/2021/09/16/france-cancels-dc-gala-after-being-left-out-of-aukus-pact/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site buttons&utm_campaign=site buttons

    Do you think during your 'journey' through various manifestations that you might manage occasionally an unpredictable observation on the zeitgeist? You know, D'Annunzio was a snaggle toothed narcissistic wee twat or that UK food is at best mediocre?
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    Ultimately, every country has been unreliable at one point or another. Ask the White Cossacks if the UK kept their promises.

    Germany is a liberal democracy.

    Our time would be better spent persuading them their interests lie in being part of the Western alliance, rather than denouncing them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:
    Is why its best for former PMs to leave the stage left and not hang around on the backbenchers for long.
    Nonsense. If they have their own perspective to offer and enjoy and are good at backbench or legislative/policy scrutiny (even if they were no good as a PM) then absolutely they should stick around. Some might make it back into government as a Minister perhaps.

    Becoming PM need not mean your days in politics are numbered once you stop. If they end up making themselves look bitter who cares? Better that than ex PMs have no prospect of political contribution, particularly when they have so many years to live and will be criticised if they cash in.
    May regularly asks Johnson more difficult questions than Starmer - on policy - not politics.
    May is asking a very good question, btw.

    The orgasmic sighs last night about this deal from PB Tories were hilarious.

    On balance I think this sounds like a good thing for the U.K., but it does raise all sorts of questions.
    In what way is it a "very good question". A fucking toddler on a cider bender knows that China invading Taiwan is a real risk (AUKUS or no AUKUS) and that we would have a horrible dilemma whether to intervene or not.

    Taiwan is super strategic.

    Yesterday's pact just means we have a better chance of deterring that invasion. That's one reason why it is a good thing
    Personally... I think it's quite hard for China to invade Taiwan.

    It's

    (a) quite a long way from Mainland China,
    Your comment is entirely correct, in my view, but for those who don’t realise, not all of Taiwan is a long way away:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinmen

    China could take Kinmen tomorrow, if they felt like it (they don’t).
    Hey. Don't forget Matsu.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matsu_Islands
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    Ultimately, every country has been unreliable at one point or another. Ask the White Cossacks if the UK kept their promises.

    Germany is a liberal democracy.

    Our time would be better spent persuading them their interests lie in being part of the Western alliance, rather than denouncing them.
    Our time would be better spent dealing with the nations we can rely on first and laying the first building blocks of what needs to be the 21st century's Cold War.

    Germany are not reliable. We don't need to denounce them, nor do we need to prioritise them as a priority either. We need to work without them and work with those we can trust.

    If we can persuade Germany to join our side in this then we can do so, but that is not the first or best use of our time.
  • Well Ash Sarkar might think politics is really dull at the moment....i beg to disagree.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

    You really are showing your remain credentials when the world is moving on
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    Ultimately, every country has been unreliable at one point or another. Ask the White Cossacks if the UK kept their promises.

    Germany is a liberal democracy.

    Our time would be better spent persuading them their interests lie in being part of the Western alliance, rather than denouncing them.
    There is a danger of making an alliance too broad. If members aren't there when push comes to shove, it undermines the alliance more than having fewer members. Because other members who would have kept the line follow their lead.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    And the funding of a major political party of the UK, shocking that is.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Absolutely he can create mischief hence the 4chan Incel troll comment. Indeed hacking and blackmailing via ransomware etc is another way now how that Russia can get foreign currency in.

    But the notion that Putin is a bigger or more existential threat than Xi? That's ignorant.
  • Biden administration is quite confusing...its all "only america" on one hand, retreating back, and on the other doing the opposite.

    The answer to the riddle is that Bush and Cheney got panicked into doing a lot of stupid shit with massive costs and minimal strategic benefit, so if the Americans want to pursue their actual goals like containing China they need to stop doing the Bush-Cheney things.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    For us into isn't, Putin if he wanted could invade most of Europe tomorrow and probably capture most of it pretty swiftly too.

    Only UK and French forces combined and the US troops still based there would really be able to hold him back.

    China is on the other side of the world to us and Beiing is more interested in Taiwan than Europe and since the Hong Kong handover we have no territory in the Far East.

    Yes we can play a supportive role to the US, Australia, Japan etc there but Xi is not a direct threat to our national security to the extent Putin is, see also Salisbury and the Russian naval manoeuvres around our coast
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

    You really are showing your remain credentials when the world is moving on
    I'm glad you can see it and its not just me.
  • rcs1000 said:

    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.

    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    They see it as tit-for-tat for Western-financed NGOs trying to foment revolution in Russia and its near abroad.
  • The best way to reduce China’s dominance would be for the West to make more stuff and have less made in China.

    If you want to reduce China's dominance you need more people. One billion Americans (Yglesias wrote a book on the specifics), one billion Europeans, 200 millions Brits.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Biden administration is quite confusing...its all "only america" on one hand, retreating back, and on the other doing the opposite.

    The answer to the riddle is that Bush and Cheney got panicked into doing a lot of stupid shit with massive costs and minimal strategic benefit, so if the Americans want to pursue their actual goals like containing China they need to stop doing the Bush-Cheney things.
    It wasn't panic. It was long planned.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited September 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    For us into isn't, Putin if he wanted could invade most of Europe tomorrow and probably capture most of it pretty swiftly too.

    Only UK and French forces combined would really be able to hold him back.

    China is on the other side of the world to us and Beiing is more interested in Taiwan than Europe and since the Hong Kong handover we have no territory in the Far East.

    Yes we can play a supportive role to the US, Australia, Japan etc there but Xi is not a direct threat to our national security as Putin is, see also Salisbury and the Russian naval manoeuvres around our coast
    I am afraid you are not in the new changing world

    Also as a self appointed spokesperson for Boris why are you at odds with his strategy
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited September 2021

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    China may have forced Biden's hand by responding* to AUKUS by putting in the TPP application

    CPTPP with the UK and USA in it would be an incredible counterbalance against China which is exactly what Obama had designed it to be but even more with us there too. And fantastic for the UK too both geopolitically and economically. Would unambiguously crush the Brexit debate stone dead.

    * May have been coincidental but a downright odd coincidence if so.

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    China may have forced Biden's hand by responding* to AUKUS by putting in the TPP application

    CPTPP with the UK and USA in it would be an incredible counterbalance against China which is exactly what Obama had designed it to be but even more with us there too. And fantastic for the UK too both geopolitically and economically. Would unambiguously crush the Brexit debate stone dead.

    * May have been coincidental but a downright odd coincidence if so.
    Yes. I suspect this too.
    Earlier in the evening folk were blithely assuming the current 11 members would be thoroughly delighted with UK as members and reject the PRC out of hand.
    That would make zero political or economic sense for any of them whatsoever.
    The USA and UK rather than PRC is another matter entirely.
    Whether Biden has the numbers is yet another matter again though.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
  • MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    Russia is a failed state. Its economy and its demographics are atrocious. Putin has coped until now by ramping ever higher proportion of the Russian economy into the military in order to be perceived as strong but he risks it all failing in the same way it failed in the 80s.

    Ultimately Russia can't afford to be a power anymore. The country is broken and he's pissing it away and driving wealth out of the nation. If it weren't for certain states in Europe being content to rely upon Russian gas the entire house of cards could come tumbling down.

    Russia will collapse again at some point. China is the real threat.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    For us into isn't, Putin if he wanted could invade most of Europe tomorrow and probably capture most of it pretty swiftly too.

    Only UK and French forces combined and the US troops still based there would really be able to hold him back.

    China is on the other side of the world to us and Beiing is more interested in Taiwan than Europe and since the Hong Kong handover we have no territory in the Far East.

    Yes we can play a supportive role to the US, Australia, Japan etc there but Xi is not a direct threat to our national security to the extent Putin is, see also Salisbury and the Russian naval manoeuvres around our coast
    Christ, hell must have frozen over but I've found myself agreeing with a post by HYUFD.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    Ultimately, every country has been unreliable at one point or another. Ask the White Cossacks if the UK kept their promises.

    Germany is a liberal democracy.

    Our time would be better spent persuading them their interests lie in being part of the Western alliance, rather than denouncing them.
    No doubt about it, nations will pursue policies they see as being in their interests. The US, UK, Australia and most of Asia are agreed that Chinese hegemony is bad for, it's bad for the whole democratic world. We're now playing our hand, that involves new military alliances, renewing the bonds of friendship with old allies, gathering support in the region for our agenda and loads of other stuff.

    On the flip side there are countries who don't care as long as they can profit from the situation. Somehow, Germany has become that nation and where Germany leads the rest of the EU will follow. It isn't an issue for Switzerland to hold to that, no one cares what a landlocked nation of 8m people does and doesn't do.

    We need to recognise the problem first and work from there. We can't rebuild the western alliance by hoping that Germany will realise that impoverishing itself is a good idea. I don't know how we do it, once again, I am without answers. I would suggest that our relationship with Germany, and therefore the EU, should (and already does, IMO) reflect the reality of the situation rather than what we'd like it to be.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    It just makes perfect sense. If the US sees China as the main threat, which it does, then the US a should be part of the block. The U.K. being part also makes sense for all sides as well given the economic and defence implications.

    Personally, I would pull in the French as, despite the fact they can be unreliable at the best of times, they have an effective military capability and I think are quite desperate to escape Germany’s orbit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

    You really are showing your remain credentials when the world is moving on
    Geography has not really moved on from when I voted Remain, we are a European and Atlantic state, not an East Asian or Oceanic state.

    The most important trading relationships we have still are with the EU and then the US, Asian nations are less than a third of our export destinations and the largest of those is China
  • Farooq said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    Ultimately, every country has been unreliable at one point or another. Ask the White Cossacks if the UK kept their promises.

    Germany is a liberal democracy.

    Our time would be better spent persuading them their interests lie in being part of the Western alliance, rather than denouncing them.
    Our time would be better spent dealing with the nations we can rely on first and laying the first building blocks of what needs to be the 21st century's Cold War.

    Germany are not reliable. We don't need to denounce them, nor do we need to prioritise them as a priority either. We need to work without them and work with those we can trust.

    If we can persuade Germany to join our side in this then we can do so, but that is not the first or best use of our time.
    I'm not quite sure exactly what this "reliability" you seek looks like in concrete terms. What is it you think Germany might do? Renege on sovereign debts? Nationalise British firms trading in Germany? Invade Suriname?
    What they could do if reliable:

    Stop sharing a stage with Xi?
    Cancel Nord Stream 2?
    Contribute to NATO?

    Instead they're like the Swiss in WWII. They'll deal with cash but they won't take a side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

    You really are showing your remain credentials when the world is moving on
    Hang on, didn't you vote Remain too Big_G?

  • Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    The US, now ranked 37 on the list of fully vaccinated of total population, and dropping lower every week
    https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&areas=can&areas=chn&areas=ind&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1438620332718362635

    UK is 15th.

    But by far the most jabs in that top 15.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    For us into isn't, Putin if he wanted could invade most of Europe tomorrow and probably capture most of it pretty swiftly too.

    Only UK and French forces combined and the US troops still based there would really be able to hold him back.

    China is on the other side of the world to us and Beiing is more interested in Taiwan than Europe and since the Hong Kong handover we have no territory in the Far East.

    Yes we can play a supportive role to the US, Australia, Japan etc there but Xi is not a direct threat to our national security to the extent Putin is, see also Salisbury and the Russian naval manoeuvres around our coast
    Christ, hell must have frozen over but I've found myself agreeing with a post by HYUFD.
    HYUFD is entirely incorrect, so of course you have.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    The best way to reduce China’s dominance would be for the West to make more stuff and have less made in China.

    If you want to reduce China's dominance you need more people. One billion Americans (Yglesias wrote a book on the specifics), one billion Europeans, 200 millions Brits.
    Really not true. In about 10-20 years, 30 max, the advent of true AI, bots, AR, auto-drones, Alexas, self drive cars, etc etc, will see the triumph of the hi-tech nations over the high-population nations.

    So much will be done, and done better, by robots, your basic-dumb-fuck-number population will be near-irrelevant

    China's superiority will happen but it will be brief. They surely realise this, hence the quite histrionic reactions now, to rivals caucusing against them
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
  • Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    Russia is a failed state. Its economy and its demographics are atrocious. Putin has coped until now by ramping ever higher proportion of the Russian economy into the military in order to be perceived as strong but he risks it all failing in the same way it failed in the 80s.

    Ultimately Russia can't afford to be a power anymore. The country is broken and he's pissing it away and driving wealth out of the nation. If it weren't for certain states in Europe being content to rely upon Russian gas the entire house of cards could come tumbling down.

    Russia will collapse again at some point. China is the real threat.
    It has to be said that a collapsing country with a large military is almost the definition of a regional threat.
    Thank goodness the UK is as strong and stable as ever.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,522
    edited September 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I'm less familiar with the CPTPP, but won't the same issues of negotiating mandate arise that make a US-UK deal impossiblebefore 2023?

    There's an interesting analysis here which anticipates Biden's remarks and China's application.

    https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/ftas/expanding-the-cptpp/

    But what are the rules for deciding who can join? The article vaguely says "Existing members", but is it a majority vote, a weighted majority or unanimity?

    EDIT: Unanimity, apparently. Can't see that China has any chance in that case.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-17/china-applies-to-join-cptpp/100469342
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    And the funding of a major political party of the UK, shocking that is.
    If you take the view Putin wants to create as much mischief for the West by political meddling, the most logical party to support in the U.K. is the SNP as an independent - and non-aligned - Scotland creates massive headaches for NATO.

    Just saying.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    For us into isn't, Putin if he wanted could invade most of Europe tomorrow and probably capture most of it pretty swiftly too.

    Only UK and French forces combined and the US troops still based there would really be able to hold him back.

    China is on the other side of the world to us and Beiing is more interested in Taiwan than Europe and since the Hong Kong handover we have no territory in the Far East.

    Yes we can play a supportive role to the US, Australia, Japan etc there but Xi is not a direct threat to our national security to the extent Putin is, see also Salisbury and the Russian naval manoeuvres around our coast
    Christ, hell must have frozen over but I've found myself agreeing with a post by HYUFD.
    HYUFD is entirely incorrect, so of course you have.
    No, he is entirely correct.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    It's not a done deal we'll even be accepted folks.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
  • dixiedean said:

    It's not a done deal we'll even be accepted folks.

    We've already been accepted in principle unanimously.

    Now its a case of negotiating terms which Truss had already started talks on. I hope Trevelyan (is that the right spelling) can live up to her shoes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    dixiedean said:

    It's not a done deal we'll even be accepted folks.

    And miss out on the opportunity to have the global trade hub of the Pitcairns in their club?
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    Nobody is proposing to declare war.

    But keeping the peace and ensuring our trading partners and allies are able to stay free and to trade freely with us is very much in our own economic and geopolitical interest.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    Russia is a failed state. Its economy and its demographics are atrocious. Putin has coped until now by ramping ever higher proportion of the Russian economy into the military in order to be perceived as strong but he risks it all failing in the same way it failed in the 80s.

    Ultimately Russia can't afford to be a power anymore. The country is broken and he's pissing it away and driving wealth out of the nation. If it weren't for certain states in Europe being content to rely upon Russian gas the entire house of cards could come tumbling down.

    Russia will collapse again at some point. China is the real threat.
    It’s a bit anti-consensual but I suspect the Russian arms build up (and some of their weaponry is impressive) is really aimed at China, and not the West. I think Putin know the days of trying to bully Eastern Europe and the Baltics are gone. If I was Russia, my bigger strategic concern would be the under populated East and the fact that China covets its resources.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

    You really are showing your remain credentials when the world is moving on
    Hang on, didn't you vote Remain too Big_G?
    Yes but I have supported Brexit since the referendum

    Furthermore I have travelling extensively in the Trans Pacific including Australia, NZ, Japan, South Korea, the South China Sea, and China and that is where the global trade of the future is going to happen

    As has been said, tonight's announcement that the US is to open talks with the Trans Pacifuc trade area as well as UK will see in due course a huge trading block to compete directly with China
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Leon said:

    The best way to reduce China’s dominance would be for the West to make more stuff and have less made in China.

    If you want to reduce China's dominance you need more people. One billion Americans (Yglesias wrote a book on the specifics), one billion Europeans, 200 millions Brits.
    Really not true. In about 10-20 years, 30 max, the advent of true AI, bots, AR, auto-drones, Alexas, self drive cars, etc etc, will see the triumph of the hi-tech nations over the high-population nations.

    So much will be done, and done better, by robots, your basic-dumb-fuck-number population will be near-irrelevant

    China's superiority will happen but it will be brief. They surely realise this, hence the quite histrionic reactions now, to rivals caucusing against them
    People have been saying 10 or 20 years ever since I was born.
    It was a big theme in my Dad's old Eagle annuals from the fifties too.
    And the tech we have now was unimaginable to even their wildest flights of fancy.
    Yet here we are. Labour shortage.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because we're sticking two fingers up at the Frogs and Krauts, and pretending to have influence over the US. It's the Iraq War all over again.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    NEWS: The Biden administration is willing to consider an “opportunity” to negotiate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday...

    https://twitter.com/ChadBown/status/1438609057032642565?s=20

    Wow.

    @MrEd

    My earlier scepticism may have been unwarranted. The question is can Biden bring along China-sceptic Republicans on board?

    If he does bring the US into the TPP (and in turn if the UK joins), then a massive counter-weight to China will have been created.
    I think this is the end goal of all these strategic moves that have been playing out since we left the EU and Trump pushed the anti-China rhetoric to the limit.

    Both the UK and US inside the CPTPP would drag APAC back towards the west. It would create a trading alliance to dominate the region and markets that can thrive without relying on China.
    It must be remembered though that 56% of UK exports still go to the EU, Switzerland and China

    You really are showing your remain credentials when the world is moving on
    Geography has not really moved on from when I voted Remain, we are a European and Atlantic state, not an East Asian or Oceanic state.

    The most important trading relationships we have still are with the EU and then the US, Asian nations are less than a third of our export destinations and the largest of those is China
    And this is your failed Remainer logic showing.

    Geography wasn't relevant in 2016 and its showing to be even less relevant now. Geography doesn't need to move on, technology has. Technology moved on decades ago in fact and it means that cash, goods or even missiles can rapidly cross the globe.

    It makes no difference to us as a major, developed, global economy whether a threat to our peace and stability is in Europe, or Asia, or the Americas. There is no isolation that a few extra thousand miles grants when data can travel that distance in microseconds and goods, people and missiles within hours.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    And the funding of a major political party of the UK, shocking that is.
    If you take the view Putin wants to create as much mischief for the West by political meddling, the most logical party to support in the U.K. is the SNP as an independent - and non-aligned - Scotland creates massive headaches for NATO.

    Just saying.
    Not quite. An effective tactic, that is still being deployed, is to bolster two opposing sides. The SNP and the Conservatives, for example. The more bitter the infighting, the more likely it is people turn away from democratic means to solving their disputes.
    Strategically Putin would certainly like to see Scotland independent, but bitter division is a bigger goal.
    Yes, but the Scottish-rUK is not really that problematic - it’s not causing riots, major political problems etc. It’s entirely manageable.

    What is a big problem though is if Scotland tells the U.K. that it’s nuclear subs must leave and refuses to allow NATO planes to use its air bases. That leaves a major gap in NATO defences.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited September 2021
    CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because we're sticking two fingers up at the Frogs and Krauts, and predending to have influence over the US. It's the Iraq War all over again.
    Exactly so. Whatever challenge there is to China, Britain will play only a token role in it compared to the US. And if there is a challenge, as we've just seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, Britain will have no say in the key miliitary decisions whatsoever. It's essentially subordination in return for the illusion of power.

    All this is entirely different to the role that the UK could exert as an equal, or even a first among equals, in any European military structure, of course, but the tory establishment have been happy with this subordinate, and underneath it all, in fact rather humiliating role for more than sixty years now, so there we are,
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
    Is there anyone on here cockahoop about our gunboat diplomacy in the Pacific who wasn't also enthusiastically waving the flag in 2003? It's all such jingoistic nonsense, it's incredible how easy it is to find suckers ready and willing to get duped all over again.
  • MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    Russia is a failed state. Its economy and its demographics are atrocious. Putin has coped until now by ramping ever higher proportion of the Russian economy into the military in order to be perceived as strong but he risks it all failing in the same way it failed in the 80s.

    Ultimately Russia can't afford to be a power anymore. The country is broken and he's pissing it away and driving wealth out of the nation. If it weren't for certain states in Europe being content to rely upon Russian gas the entire house of cards could come tumbling down.

    Russia will collapse again at some point. China is the real threat.
    It’s a bit anti-consensual but I suspect the Russian arms build up (and some of their weaponry is impressive) is really aimed at China, and not the West. I think Putin know the days of trying to bully Eastern Europe and the Baltics are gone. If I was Russia, my bigger strategic concern would be the under populated East and the fact that China covets its resources.
    On this I can completely agree with you.

    Hence another reason why Russia is no more than a meddling troll with us. Putin is far too far under Xi's shadow now to expose himself with a serious conflict with the West. Grabbing bits of Crimea to clean up his borders in his eyes when he knows Europe won't defend that is a different matter to actually fighting with the West.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
    With respect. How does our joining ensure that? Specifically? Sorry to be over cynical about this.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited September 2021

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
    Is there anyone on here cockahoop about our gunboat diplomacy in the Pacific who wasn't also enthusiastically waving the flag in 2003? It's all such jingoistic nonsense, it's incredible how easy it is to find suckers ready and willing to get duped all over again.
    Well seems the HoC and most of the EU together with the Trans Pacific including Japan, India, South Korea and other are fully in support of this new tripartite military agreement
  • CatMan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because we're sticking two fingers up at the Frogs and Krauts, and predending to have influence over the US. It's the Iraq War all over again.
    Exactly so. Whatever challenge there is to China, Britain will play only a token role in it compared to the US. And if there is a challenge, as we've just seen n Iraq and Afghanistan, Britain will have no say in the key miliitary decisions. It's essentially subordination in return for the illusion of power.

    All this is entirely different to the rule that the UK could exert as an equal, or even a first among equals in any European military structure, ofcourse, but the tory establishment have been happy with this subordinate, and underneath it all, in fact rather humiliating role for more than sixty years now, so there we are,
    I would rather Britain plays a subordinate role in defending the free world, than an "equal partner" (where outside the Euro we were never equal) in arguing about the seating arrangement of who gets to sit in the fancy chair this week.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2021
    Exciting times.

    The CPTPP doesn’t have a permanent Commission HQ, but if it did then perhaps my hometown Auckland is a potential candidate?

    The NZ government is the official “depositary” for the CPTPP (hence China’s application via the NZ govt), so why not?

    Would do wonders for my modest real estate assets there.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    What? You can sleep at night whilst welcoming China’s investment into our public infrastructure whilst squaring up in a Cold War with them? Letting them buy our debt etc?

    That position is the definition of madness. Like finding hairs growing on the palm of your hand.

    Then?
    https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2021-04-24/cameron-exploited-lobbying-loophole-to-discuss-1bn-china-fund-with-treasury

    Where are we Now?
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2020/07/china-s-ownership-uk-assets-exposes-britain-s-broken-model

    And how does all this change Tomorrow?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/china-now-owns-ps143bn-in-uk-assets-from-nuclear-power-to-pubs-and-schools-b1841056.html

    Honest mistakes previously made are completely forgivable in my opinion.

    Hypocrisy isn’t.

    So we are in agreement then? Posturing like this for the cameras today, to place a fig leaf over the failure that has really been going on (which you don’t deny has been going on) if from any day hereafter we open arms to Chinese investment, lobby for Chinese investment, to come and buy this country up, invest in infrastructure, allowed to buy our debt, that’s such a serious crime against our country, it should be punishable by a custodial sentence?

    I’m asking, are you serious about this or not?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    Russia is a failed state. Its economy and its demographics are atrocious. Putin has coped until now by ramping ever higher proportion of the Russian economy into the military in order to be perceived as strong but he risks it all failing in the same way it failed in the 80s.

    Ultimately Russia can't afford to be a power anymore. The country is broken and he's pissing it away and driving wealth out of the nation. If it weren't for certain states in Europe being content to rely upon Russian gas the entire house of cards could come tumbling down.

    Russia will collapse again at some point. China is the real threat.
    It’s a bit anti-consensual but I suspect the Russian arms build up (and some of their weaponry is impressive) is really aimed at China, and not the West. I think Putin know the days of trying to bully Eastern Europe and the Baltics are gone. If I was Russia, my bigger strategic concern would be the under populated East and the fact that China covets its resources.
    And indeed, there has been a wave of settlement of Chinese into the Far Siberia. Russians don't want to farm there. The Chinese do.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
  • By the way, geography is still very relevant.

    The gravity theory of trace is still highly explanatory in terms of explaining how likely you are to trade goods with another country, and a bit less but still pretty good for explaining trade in services.

    I’m all for the CPTPP, but we’re kind of stuck with 50+% of our trade being with EEA countries for quite some time.
  • dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
    With respect. How does our joining ensure that? Specifically? Sorry to be over cynical about this.
    Economically or militarily?

    Militarily we are doing more to defend the Pacific recently, hence last night's announcement of support for Australian nuclear submarines as well as relocating much of our own assets over there, with the US doing the same.

    Economically ensuring there is a strong and stable economic system that keeps the Pacific regions trading with us and able to stand up to and not be subordinate to China does that too.

    Its worth remembering from history that much of the British Empire became such without official national bullets being fired. Companies like the East India Trading Company etc were able to purchase, subordinate and economically dominate regions from which the military and politics could then follow. China has been attempting the same trick with much of the world and we and the US have woken up to this and need to ensure they don't get away with it.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    All politics is local, and internal politics of countries with a powerful military can lead to actions that are objectively quite stupid, like Japan going to war with the US. I don't think we really know what the *current* Chinese leadership intends, let alone a future one in a future situation.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
  • By the way, geography is still very relevant.

    The gravity theory of trace is still highly explanatory in terms of explaining how likely you are to trade goods with another country, and a bit less but still pretty good for explaining trade in services.

    I’m all for the CPTPP, but we’re kind of stuck with 50+% of our trade being with EEA countries for quite some time.

    That'd be a good point.

    Except its already below that. And falling. And that's before post-Brexit adjustments.
  • Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    And the funding of a major political party of the UK, shocking that is.
    If you take the view Putin wants to create as much mischief for the West by political meddling, the most logical party to support in the U.K. is the SNP as an independent - and non-aligned - Scotland creates massive headaches for NATO.

    Just saying.
    Not quite. An effective tactic, that is still being deployed, is to bolster two opposing sides. The SNP and the Conservatives, for example. The more bitter the infighting, the more likely it is people turn away from democratic means to solving their disputes.
    Strategically Putin would certainly like to see Scotland independent, but bitter division is a bigger goal.
    Yes, but the Scottish-rUK is not really that problematic - it’s not causing riots, major political problems etc. It’s entirely manageable.

    What is a big problem though is if Scotland tells the U.K. that it’s nuclear subs must leave and refuses to allow NATO planes to use its air bases. That leaves a major gap in NATO defences.
    I don't agree about the subs. The location of Trident's base is fairly unimportant to its use as deterrence. What matters on that front is that they are somewhere unknown whilst at sea. It would be a minor tactical adjustment to move them somewhere else.
    Rent them out to Taiwan.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2021

    By the way, geography is still very relevant.

    The gravity theory of trace is still highly explanatory in terms of explaining how likely you are to trade goods with another country, and a bit less but still pretty good for explaining trade in services.

    I’m all for the CPTPP, but we’re kind of stuck with 50+% of our trade being with EEA countries for quite some time.

    That'd be a good point.

    Except its already below that. And falling. And that's before post-Brexit adjustments.
    Not really. Last time I looked, EEA was still above 50% although I daren’t predict the effect of the pandemic.
  • By the way, geography is still very relevant.

    The gravity theory of trace is still highly explanatory in terms of explaining how likely you are to trade goods with another country, and a bit less but still pretty good for explaining trade in services.

    I’m all for the CPTPP, but we’re kind of stuck with 50+% of our trade being with EEA countries for quite some time.

    That'd be a good point.

    Except its already below that. And falling. And that's before post-Brexit adjustments.
    Also, contra your batshit rhapsody upthread, Britain traded mostly with what is now the EEA even during the imperial preference era.

    You can’t beat gravity.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2021
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
    Sure.

    I’m just trying to get Pbers to flip the perspective a bit.

    I kowtow to nobody in my China-skepticism, but this is not China aggressing the West, but the West asserting a posture toward China.
  • Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
    Yeah, democracies like the US and UK would never direct any violence externally, by for instance illegally invading another country and killing thousands of its citizens on the basis of made up "intelligence" and lies about links to 9/11.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited September 2021

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
    With respect. How does our joining ensure that? Specifically? Sorry to be over cynical about this.
    Economically or militarily?

    Militarily we are doing more to defend the Pacific recently, hence last night's announcement of support for Australian nuclear submarines as well as relocating much of our own assets over there, with the US doing the same.

    Economically ensuring there is a strong and stable economic system that keeps the Pacific regions trading with us and able to stand up to and not be subordinate to China does that too.

    Its worth remembering from history that much of the British Empire became such without official national bullets being fired. Companies like the East India Trading Company etc were able to purchase, subordinate and economically dominate regions from which the military and politics could then follow. China has been attempting the same trick with much of the world and we and the US have woken up to this and need to ensure they don't get away with it.
    But we're just acting as the US's bag-carrier and go-between again there, in return for the illusion of power. The technology for the Austrialian subs will be American, and Biden is essentially sending the same signal as Bush in 2002-3 ; I'll let you pretend to be big boys, and piggy-back off our prestige again if you tow the line at all times, and act as our emissary. No one is taking Britain, or Australia for that matter, remotely seriously as naval powers to take on China.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    Russia is a failed state. Its economy and its demographics are atrocious. Putin has coped until now by ramping ever higher proportion of the Russian economy into the military in order to be perceived as strong but he risks it all failing in the same way it failed in the 80s.

    Ultimately Russia can't afford to be a power anymore. The country is broken and he's pissing it away and driving wealth out of the nation. If it weren't for certain states in Europe being content to rely upon Russian gas the entire house of cards could come tumbling down.

    Russia will collapse again at some point. China is the real threat.
    It has to be said that a collapsing country with a large military is almost the definition of a regional threat.
    Thank goodness the UK is as strong and stable as ever.
    Now you get it. Glad to have you on side.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    The past is a relevant consideration, but not as significant a one as the present. China likes to use the former to pretend its still a victim or fighting oppressors today, we don't have to do that nonsense for them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    I am afraid that the world is global now and our trading and prosperity will come from the huge markets of the Trans Pacific which in turn will fund our public services in the future

    I would just comment that Keir Starmer has pledged his full support as indeed have most EU countries

    Even Blackford of all people was generous in his support
    I am all for trading with Asia, just against declaring war on them.
    We are not declaring war on anyone but ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China
    With respect. How does our joining ensure that? Specifically? Sorry to be over cynical about this.
    Economically or militarily?

    Militarily we are doing more to defend the Pacific recently, hence last night's announcement of support for Australian nuclear submarines as well as relocating much of our own assets over there, with the US doing the same.

    Economically ensuring there is a strong and stable economic system that keeps the Pacific regions trading with us and able to stand up to and not be subordinate to China does that too.

    Its worth remembering from history that much of the British Empire became such without official national bullets being fired. Companies like the East India Trading Company etc were able to purchase, subordinate and economically dominate regions from which the military and politics could then follow. China has been attempting the same trick with much of the world and we and the US have woken up to this and need to ensure they don't get away with it.
    The quote I asked about was "ensuring all the trans pacific can go about their trade without constant threat from China".
    Has China ever threatened their trade? Let alone constantly? If the current incarnation of the PRC likes one thing it is international trade. They love it. Bloody love it they do.
    The USA did it as well for a century.
    It isn't a "trick". It is global capitalism. And China has been winning.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,039
    MIG hold in Middlesbrough - I think.
  • @RochdalePioneers
    I don’t know much about the Tees Area.
    But Historic England granted the “Dorman Long Tower” Grade II listing to prevent demolition 3 days ago.

    According to Twitter, Nadine Dorries has rescinded this tonight, and demolition will proceed on Sunday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
    Yeah, democracies like the US and UK would never direct any violence externally, by for instance illegally invading another country and killing thousands of its citizens on the basis of made up "intelligence" and lies about links to 9/11.
    And those events prevent criticism or action, of any kind, against or in opposition to regimes who are, even with those examples, far far worse?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    But you ARE agreeing with Boris? in his answer to May he didn’t rule out UK troops dying to defend Taiwan - yet at the same time you don’t want to see the people selling our state infrastructure to China, making money in the lobby selling our nations assets to China, end up in jail? To engineer a Cold War whilst selling your country’s assets to the “enemy” smells more like Treason to me. Not to you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
    Sure.

    I’m just trying to get Pbers to flip the perspective a bit.

    I kowtow to nobody in my China-skepticism, but this is not China aggressing the West, but the West asserting a posture toward China.
    It isn't happening in a vacuum. Have you seen the posturing diplomacy China engages in? Tit for tat is not in itself justification for measures, and in a proper context warning against some new cold war type situation is not inherently a bad thing, but it's not as though the West has just woken up on the wrong side of the bed and decided to assert a posture toward China for no reason, China is not sitting there minding their own business or of no concern to anyone else in a diplomatic or international relations sense. It wants to be a major player, understandably, and major players face opposition.
  • @RochdalePioneers
    I don’t know much about the Tees Area.
    But Historic England granted the “Dorman Long Tower” Grade II listing to prevent demolition 3 days ago.

    According to Twitter, Nadine Dorries has rescinded this tonight, and demolition will proceed on Sunday.

    Can't someone tell her it's a staute- preferably of someone who happened to get rich around the time that the slave trade was legal and profitable?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129


    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    The US, now ranked 37 on the list of fully vaccinated of total population, and dropping lower every week
    https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&areas=can&areas=chn&areas=ind&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1438620332718362635

    UK is 15th.

    But by far the most jabs in that top 15.

    Although if you dip down to 20, you also get Italy and France in there which evens it up a bit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited September 2021
    Aslan said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    I think you are diagnosing the wrong cause. Germany's overriding lesson they took from the 20th Century is to not upset any great powers. Get on with everyone important. Avoid wars through dialogue.
    Are they not able to differentiate between liberal democratic powers like the UK and USA, and authoritarian regimes like China?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
    Sure.

    I’m just trying to get Pbers to flip the perspective a bit.

    I kowtow to nobody in my China-skepticism, but this is not China aggressing the West, but the West asserting a posture toward China.
    It isn't happening in a vacuum. Have you seen the posturing diplomacy China engages in? Tit for tat is not in itself justification for measures, and in a proper context warning against some new cold war type situation is not inherently a bad thing, but it's not as though the West has just woken up on the wrong side of the bed and decided to assert a posture toward China for no reason, China is not sitting there minding their own business or of no concern to anyone else in a diplomatic or international relations sense. It wants to be a major player, understandably, and major players face opposition.
    Nonsense. This can only be about protecting the UKs interests in the long term.

    So how does simultaneously allowing China to buy up our nations assets and be owner of our debt achieve that?

    At the moment the governments position is merely hypocrisy.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Andy_JS said:

    Aslan said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    I think you are diagnosing the wrong cause. Germany's overriding lesson they took from the 20th Century is to not upset any great powers. Get on with everyone important. Avoid wars through dialogue.
    Are they not able to differentiate between liberal democratic powers like the UK and USA, and authoritarian regimes like China?
    What about the authoritarian regime known as Saudi Arabia who we seem to have no problem with when buying their oil?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    MrEd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    You need to catch up with the 21st century, Putin is not the threat to us.

    Putin is like a spotty 4chan Incel troll in comparison to Xi.
    He does have the ability to create mischief, though, and does need to be opposed. In particular, the Russian funding and support for groups that oppose fracking in the UK (to use one example) should be exposed. We cannot allow them to interfere in our democratic systems for their own benefit.
    Putin has been quiet for a number of years now when it comes to the West and even the Ukraine. He has issues on the domestic front which are more pressing.

    He’s also got issues on the Eastern front with China. That relationship is not as close as some assume.
    If the question is: is Russia a poor country, with enormous challenges, and terrible deographics, whose major export is fucked by technology?

    Then the answer is yes.

    Russia's total exports are lower than Belgium's. And it's all oil and gas and coal.

    But they have worked tirelessly to spread disinformation, especially around fracking, and have managed to effectively stall it completely in the UK, as well as maanging to get it banned in a bunch of resource poor countries in Europe. And they've done this via a combination of ways.

    Now, one can say "of course they have, they are dependent on exporting energy and if people don't import energy then they're fucked."

    But that doesn't excuse their behaviour - which (in Austria) reached the level of bribing politicians. And we do need to stand up to it. Just because they're not the number one problem doesn't mean we should pretend they are somehow OK.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Farooq said:

    slade said:

    MIG hold in Middlesbrough - I think.

    MIG? Another Russian-funded party, no doubt
    I thought I saw a MIG fighter jet once in the Middle East. But it was a Mirage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    Indeed, especially as Putin is more of a direct threat to us than Xi is and we need French support within NATO for containing Russia.

    Jihadi terrorism is also a direct threat to us we need French intelligence cooperation on
    The narrative is moving on and I doubt NATO as we know it will be recognisable soon

    You simply do not see that the threat is China not Russia, and as far as France is concerned while they will not be in the tripartite agreement, both France and Canada and others will have a role to play in the South China seas
    Why should we be fannying around in the South China Sea? I doubt we'd want the Chinese navy steaming up and down the English Channel. This kind of imperial delusion is embarrassing, and will only end in tears like it always does. It's like Suez, or for that matter Iraq, never happened.
    If we've got money to waste on these stupid dick-waving exercises, how about we pay our nurses properly, or fund education adequately, or don't cut universal credit?
    Because the South China Sea matters for our own economy and the entire global trading system and does not belong to China. The English Channel is our territorial waters.

    We aren't messing around in Chinese waters but we sure as hell need to ensure that international waters through which our 21st century trading system is built upon is kept free and open for all to use.

    If Taiwan falls and the microchips they export are seized by China and blocked from export our entire economic system could collapse. Then we couldn't pay a fraction of what we pay now to our nurses, or teachers, or welfare.
    Are you going to sign up then so you can do your duty and defend Taiwan?
    Why would China want to collapse the global economy, which they rely on far more than we do?
    No need to sign up since if we do this right there will be no actual fighting. That's the point of a Cold War in fact, to avoid the actual fighting. Containment works better through deterrence than through conflict and we and our allies have professionals to do that much better than you or I ever could.

    China is a paranoid Communist dictatorship that has been flexing its muscles not a liberal free market democracy. Forgive me if I won't put my faith in China's goodwill.
    Goodwill and self interest are two different things. Xi is a repulsive scumbag but his party's hold on power relies on delivering stability and prosperity, and he's not going to jeopardise that by doing anything crazy.
    Historically speaking we are a far more aggressive, violent, murderous and expansionary culture than China is. They should be more afraid of us than vice versa.
    Imagine if China, Russia and Myanmar announced a “tech sharing defence alliance” focused on nuclear subs.
    If they were liberal democracies, I wouldn't be worried. The problem is they are dictatorships that brutalize their own citizens, so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally.
    Yeah, democracies like the US and UK would never direct any violence externally, by for instance illegally invading another country and killing thousands of its citizens on the basis of made up "intelligence" and lies about links to 9/11.
    And those events prevent criticism or action, of any kind, against or in opposition to regimes who are, even with those examples, far far worse?
    No, but it does weaken the "The problem is they are dictatorships ... so are clearly pretty prone to violence which can also be directed externally" aspect of the point.
    You gotta love living in a democracy. But if you are the victim of a foreign invasion, seeing your wedding blown up or your cousin disappeared to some torture dungeon in the middle of the night, you don't really care if it's a democracy doing it or a dictatorship. I wonder whether democracies are better neighbours than anyone else.
    I think its important to reflect on the moral failings that still exist under or from democracies, else we won't improve. But I do think too much navel gazing on it results in a kind of false equivalence, or nonchalance, toward some truly truly despicable regimes, and hesitation in confronting them in anyway or by thinking there is no real difference between them. I think they'd love for us, and their people, to think none of that really matters, which is not your intent I know, but can result from too much pondering our own culture's failings.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Aslan said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Former French Ambassador to the US seems pretty chilled about the whole thing. Exuding Gallic sangfroid and a sense of "meh"


    "“The US has trampled our national interest. What the US has done to our national interest is a hostile act,” he said.

    "“What we were doing with the Australians was a strategic choice and this strategic choice has been swept away not only by the Australians but also by the Americans.”

    "He said the British involvement was immaterial because they were “poodles of the Americans, as usual”."

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/stab-in-the-back-europe-s-fury-with-morrison-and-biden-over-aukus-submarine-deal-20210916-p58sea.html


    AHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    Biden has single-handedly taken a wrecking ball to the western alliances. Putin and Xi must wondering why the hell they bothered with that amateur Trump.
    Biden has gone up, a lot, in my estimation. He instinctively senses that NATO is over. And it is

    Russia is not a strategic threat to the West. It just isn't. Its economy is too small and its people too drunk

    They might try another Crimea on the Baltics, but I doubt it. They export virtually nothing but conventional oil, which is increasingly worthless, as energy gets cheaper, because renewables, shale, etc.

    Xi Jinping's China, by contrast, is the greatest "threat" the West has faced in a couple of centuries. Worse than Nazi Germany

    All that matters is containing her (we cannot "defeat" her). And that means rock-solid alliances with close friends ensuring that we stand together, whatever. That is how you beat bullies




    Yes, even though I think his economic policies are turning into a disaster and he is obviously losing his capabilities, when it comes to foreign affairs I have a lot of grudging respect for the fact that Biden has turned out to be so fundamentally ruthless and willing to break the cosy consensus. I’d be interested to see how long Blinken stays around
    Yep. I think he is a bit senile, and foolish in some respects, but when it comes to foreign policy he has clear instincts and wise opinions: as to what is in America's interest, and he has a certain heartless brutality in seeing them done. If you want to boss a superpower, I guess that is important

    So this will kill 100,000 Afghans? So be it. So this will kill off our relationship with France for 3 years? So be it

    Etc. Not pretty, but maybe needed
    It won't kill the US-French relationship.

    The French are players. They are making massive scene out of this, so that the Americans throw them a bone in some other area.
    I'm not so sure that will happen. The Biden administration has continually sidelined Europe. I just don't think they care and don't see any EU country as a potential ally in the looming cold war against China. I wrote out my thoughts just now, the world has realised that the EU is happy to kowtow to China for fear of losing money.
    I think you're wrong on this. For a start, I think it would be a catastrophic mistake to cleave the Western European democracies (most of whom don't really want to "kowtow" to China) off from the Anglosphere.

    Re the French, I'm thinking more of them getting US support for a French candidate to be next General Secretary of the United Nations, that kind of thing. It's the kind of quid pro quo that the French are very good at getting.
    As I've been saying for a while, I take no joy from the fracturing of the western alliance. However, we need to be realistic. Germany controls the EU and Germany is a mercantile state, it is for sale to the highest bidder. They simply don't care to whom they sell BMWs or dishwashers as long as the bill is paid and Germans get jobs out of it.

    I'm sure there will be grand words in a few months but the direction of travel has been clear for a while, even Obama was very sceptical of the "old world" as he termed it. What's changed is that with Brexit we've also become sceptical of the very same old world and now our interests are much more aligned with the US and looking towards the looming cold war with China in a way that Europe won't.
    I'm sorry, I completely disagree.

    Germany is not one thing, any more than the UK is one thing. It is grossly simplistic and demeaning to cast aside a Democratic country, with the rule of law, as somehow to sale for the highest bidder.

    Ultimately, Merkel thought it was a good idea to get on stage with Xi and denounce the US. It was a huge error on their part but also gave us all incredible insight as to where Germany's interests lie. They will deal with the devil to do god's work, and for them god's work is the enrichment of the German state and people. Germany is a nation that will not take any economic hardship to pursue foreign policy goals. We know this. How can we rely on them as an ally when they've already been so unreliable. As long as they can make money and keep Germans employed by selling goods to China we have to count them out and, IMO, the rest of the EU.
    I think you are diagnosing the wrong cause. Germany's overriding lesson they took from the 20th Century is to not upset any great powers. Get on with everyone important. Avoid wars through dialogue.
    Are they not able to differentiate between liberal democratic powers like the UK and USA, and authoritarian regimes like China?
    What about the authoritarian regime known as Saudi Arabia who we seem to have no problem with when buying their oil?
    Shh.
This discussion has been closed.