Surely the guidance was for winter if there is a big rise in cases, we are still barely in autumn let alone winter
I'm sure that we can all agree that winter starts on December 1st.
(Disappears into the kitchen just in case I have started WW3)
Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st
I just knew it!
@HYUFD: How can we be "barely in autumn" if "Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st"? Is autumn longer than the other seasons?
It's shorter. Don't believe the hype. All the autumnal stuff (fruit, leaf colour changes etc) starts about mid August and has happened by the end of October. It's then winter all the way to May 1.
Not in Dorset!
Well it is in Devon. I think you are just saying that to keep your spirits up.
Here is somewhere that PB top gear fans should recognise:
It's hard to tell at that resolution, but Bealach na Ba down from Applecross?
When I walked that, it was in fog. My GF - driving a motorhome - took the postman's path.
Edit: I think not, with those mountains in the background. hmmm....
Sorry, that’s my fault for trying to post straight from the mobile phone, which clearly doesn’t work well. Try this:
I hope you rode a bike up there at 220W average power or else DuraAce will be after you.
Definitely the Stelvio.
You are right, it’s the Stelvio. I built it into a trip from Bavaria to Italy and did the series of bends up on the Swiss side as well, which most people don’t do; there the road is narrower and less well protected and it’s equally an exciting drive.
Groups doing the pass today included vintage porches, Austin minors, open topped MGs, and a bunch of tractors. The faces of those coming up behind the tractors were a picture.
The number of people cycling up was seriously awe inspiring. Especially seeing the ones at the bottom, knowing what they had ahead of them.
I’d guess that the density of early to late middle aged wankers with fast cars is greater on that road than anywhere else in the world.
Out and about today and it's clear the current spell of mask wearing, certainly in London and Surrey, seems to be coming to an end. Although apparently compulsory on Transport for London services and stations, the absence of any kind of enforcement means it's an instruction becoming more honoured in the breach than the observance.
Not much of any great surprise in the latest pronouncements. We all knew, once the Mail got its teeth into it, the Government would give away on boosters so 30 million or so between next week and Christmas you'd think.
The encouraging case numbers do suggest to this observer the status quo can continue and it's hard not to argue the Government is taking a sensible, managed approach. Whether that will be matched by the public as we move deeper into autumn and especially if there are signs of raising case numbers and hospitalisations remains to be seen.
On to other things - the final wrap on Norway's election. The centre-left parties won 100 seats in the Storting but with the Red Party (8 seats and apparently a 1,000 new members overnight) and the Greens (3 seats, just missing the 4% barrier) not involved, Labour leader Store is looking to form a majority Government with the Centre and Socialist Left. That would have 89 seats in the new Storting but forming the coalition may not be entirely simple.
The Conservatives and Progress fell from 40% combined to 32% but that 8 point move wasn't to Labour, Centre picked up three points and the left parties (Socialist Left and Red) gained four points between them.
Of perhaps more concern, Democrats for Norway (most closely aligned with the Sweden Democrats and the Dansk Folkeparti) moved up from 0.2% to 1.2% which won them nothing. Their best vote was in Dyroy in Troms & Finnmark where they won 4.6% and benefitted from a near 14 point drop in support for Progress and the Conservatives.
Canada. Average of last 13 polls over previous 3 days. 21k+ sampled by a variety of methods.
Lib 32.2 (-0.9) Con 30.8 (-3.5) NDP 19.3 (+3.3) BQ 6.7 (-0.9) PPC 6.5 (+4.9) GP 3.4 (-3.2) Changes with previous election.
Doesn't stop the Guardian, amongst others, leading with "The PM trails in the polls." He does in some, not on average (mean) any longer. Direction of travel becoming clear. Early voting already taking place in Alberta at least.
Incidentally. Tories unvaccinated candidates becoming a late issue.
Has there been a big Liberal bounceback?
Not particularly. But their vote has been shoring up. The Tories have been put on the backfoot re vaccines and got tangled up talking about assault weapons. They're bleeding votes to the PPC. So more a Conservative fall and a smaller Liberal rise.
The problem for O'Toole is he has focused so much on reassuring centrists in suburban Ontario he is a moderate on gay marriage and climate change etc and supportive of vaccines and masks he forgot about his right flank in the rural West which he is now leaking to Bernier and the populist Trumpite and UKIP like PPC
It is a recurring issue for the CPC. They can easily score 33%. Try to push on from there and their coalition begins to creak at the seams.
Indeed, Harper has been the only one to manage it since the merger of the PCs and Canadian Alliance (formerly Reform) in 2003 and even he only managed to get a Conservative majority in 2011, helped in part by a collapse from the Liberals in favour of the NDP who briefly became the main opposition
Yes. See my edit. That was primarily because the Liberals chose a leader less attractive as a PM than almost any other qualified citizen of Canada.
Partly but fear of the NDP who are less attractive to centrist voters than the Liberals as well was also a factor, indeed the Canadian Liberals unlike UK Labour have been in government for a majority of the postwar years for that reason. Had the more leftwing NDP generally been the Conservatives main opposition I expect the Canadian Tories would have been as successful as the UK Tories have been
I'm surprised the NDP isn't doing better TBH given the supposed popularity of their leader. They seem to be squeezing the Greens somewhat but making little headway beyond that. They are reasonably strong in BC but I have no idea how many gains they can make.
Here is somewhere that PB top gear fans should recognise:
Lairig Ghru?
I'm not sure the road through the Lairig Ghru is that good. It certainly wasn't that well surfaced when I last rode a bike on it.
It's not *good*, but when I walked it there were Landrovers near the top, and linesmen working on the powerlines.
Powerlines in the Lairig Ghru? Wot?
Ditto a road, of course.
Ah but there is a watershed, the only one I have ever seen. A modest sized lochan with burns running out of both ends, one to the north sea on the east coast and one to the Atlantic on the west. It's quite something.
I believe it's possible to walk from the west coast of Scotland to the east coast in a day - from possibly faulty memory (given my performance on this thread so far), from somewhere to Bonar Bridge.
Kelpies to Glasgow Green is 25 miles.
My dad used to cycle from Ibrox to St Andrews and back in a day. Best fish suppers he ever ate. Nothing like working up a hunger.
That's 76 miles each way. That's incredible.
He was wee and wiry. Road racing was his sport. And I think the task was a hell of a lot simpler in the 1940s and 50s. He could still beat me in a sprint along the sands when I was a young teenager, and I was a nippy bugger myself.
Ibrox - St Andrews - Ibrox is shorter than Milan - Sanremo, which typically took about 7 to 9 hours in the 1940s. If you took it steady you could manage that in a whole day.
Well I couldn't have, even 45 years ago when I was a pretty keen cyclist. I did 100 miles in a day once and that was enough, I was knackered.
The Conservative Party MPs are, with very few exceptions, muppets.
If you don't like me stating it then re-read Mike's thread above.
There is a character in "Birds Without Wings" by Louis de Bernieres who imitates the bleats of goats, his party piece being "the bleat of a goat who has nothing to say." I can't think why he has just popped into my heacd.
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
a) don't get (very) ill; Risk from naive Covid is higher than the vaccine, the CDC have covered that.
but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed True, but it's less likely for any child. And less likely for one child = less cases in the childhood population = lower transmission to adults = lower global R.
Also if a teenager catches Covid and is vaxxed they'll have subsequent strong hybrid immunity - that keeps everything lower for longer too.
The virus hasn't passed stage 3 trials, the vaccines have - making a choice not to vaccinate when it's available essentially means you're saying the virus is safer than the vaccine. It's only "safer" if the virus is at very low levels, and those levels are achieved through .... vaccination.
This is all true when most kids haven't had Covid. In NZ, it would be completely logical to vaccinate 12-15s.
In our context, we are pretty much shutting the stable door after the horse has gone. North of 50% of the target age range probably had antibodies in July, based on the ONS numbers - I've seen a more recent (but fairly small) sterioprevalance study of this age range which suggested it could now be as high as 70%*.
So if you vax uk kids now, you get all the drawbacks for 30% of the benefits. And the benefits were pretty marginal anyway.
I'm afraid that a lot of those most keen to vax kids were wanting to do it for the population benefits, rather than because the kids benefit. IMHO this is pretty unethical. I fear the current policy represents a political pandering to this more than following the science (I think the single dose thing is an attempt to go "middle of the road"). The JCVI were probably right in the first place.
*Incidentally, this may well be why the return to school this time round hasn't caused the expected surge in cases - leaving aside any other interventions, this sort of level of natural immunity should put a decent dent in the R number.
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
a) don't get (very) ill; Risk from naive Covid is higher than the vaccine, the CDC have covered that.
but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed True, but it's less likely for any child. And less likely for one child = less cases in the childhood population = lower transmission to adults = lower global R.
Also if a teenager catches Covid and is vaxxed they'll have subsequent strong hybrid immunity - that keeps everything lower for longer too.
The virus hasn't passed stage 3 trials, the vaccines have - making a choice not to vaccinate when it's available essentially means you're saying the virus is safer than the vaccine. It's only "safer" if the virus is at very low levels, and those levels are achieved through .... vaccination.
This is all true when most kids haven't had Covid. In NZ, it would be completely logical to vaccinate 12-15s.
In our context, we are pretty much shutting the stable door after the horse has gone. North of 50% of the target age range probably had antibodies in July, based on the ONS numbers - I've seen a more recent (but fairly small) sterioprevalance study of this age range which suggested it could now be as high as 70%*.
So if you vax uk kids now, you get all the drawbacks for 30% of the benefits. And the benefits were pretty marginal anyway.
I'm afraid that a lot of those most keen to vax kids were wanting to do it for the population benefits, rather than because the kids benefit. IMHO this is pretty unethical. I fear the current policy represents a political pandering to this more than following the science (I think the single dose thing is an attempt to go "middle of the road" on this). The JCVI were probably right in the first place.
*Incidentally, this may well be why the return to school this time round hasn't caused the expected surge in cases - leaving aside any other interventions, this sort of level of natural immunity should put a decent dent in the R number.
But surely any vaccination is largely for the population benefit as well as the personal one? It's a contract between all of us to get vaccinated - the antivaxxers freeload on that, basically (usurping the space needed to be devoted to the ones who really can't be vaccinated for medical reasons).
Edit: And you don't have to be a Darwinist to note that children depend on their parents and their grandparents and to a lesser degree their aunts and uncles.
Here is somewhere that PB top gear fans should recognise:
It's hard to tell at that resolution, but Bealach na Ba down from Applecross?
When I walked that, it was in fog. My GF - driving a motorhome - took the postman's path.
Edit: I think not, with those mountains in the background. hmmm....
Sorry, that’s my fault for trying to post straight from the mobile phone, which clearly doesn’t work well. Try this:
[deleted - answere already given I see]
Indeed. Does Scotland have snow still on its tops in September, I wonder?
Used to. But that was then, this is now.
Yes. Yesterday we did the zugspitze, as PB’ers who saw the photo will know. That includes walking on the glacier, but it has to be said that ‘glacier’ is overstating the position, at least in September, considerably. Large patch of snow would be a better description. Still, the dog always goes beserk when he sees snow and he provided lots of entertainment to assorted Germans and Austrians.
People from Austria really do go to Germany on holiday to see more mountains, which is remarkable. I was sitting next to a guy in the brewery beer garden a couple of days back, he turned out to be from Innsbruck having a mountain walking holiday in Bavaria. I suggested he might consider holidaying somewhere totally different, like Holland, but he just looked at me like I was an idiot.
The governing coalition is down roughly six points from 2017 and holds 35 of the 63 seats in the Althing so a majority of eight. The obvious question is what alternate Government formation is there because I can't see one.
The German poll numbers better for the CDU/CSU tonight. Forsa's seat projections based on a Bundestag of 759 members as follows:
Social Democrats: 208 (+55) Union CDU/CSU: 178 (-68) Greens: 141 (+74) Alternative for Germany: 91 (-3) Free Democrats: 91 (+11) Linke: 50 (-19)
I must confess I thought the Union would be down nearer 150. I also note SPD plus Greens are 349 so close to a majority but 30 short. I just wonder the circumstances under which all the opposition parties would join forces to vote against the Government.
Canada. Average of last 13 polls over previous 3 days. 21k+ sampled by a variety of methods.
Lib 32.2 (-0.9) Con 30.8 (-3.5) NDP 19.3 (+3.3) BQ 6.7 (-0.9) PPC 6.5 (+4.9) GP 3.4 (-3.2) Changes with previous election.
Doesn't stop the Guardian, amongst others, leading with "The PM trails in the polls." He does in some, not on average (mean) any longer. Direction of travel becoming clear. Early voting already taking place in Alberta at least.
Incidentally. Tories unvaccinated candidates becoming a late issue.
Has there been a big Liberal bounceback?
Not particularly. But their vote has been shoring up. The Tories have been put on the backfoot re vaccines and got tangled up talking about assault weapons. They're bleeding votes to the PPC. So more a Conservative fall and a smaller Liberal rise.
The problem for O'Toole is he has focused so much on reassuring centrists in suburban Ontario he is a moderate on gay marriage and climate change etc and supportive of vaccines and masks he forgot about his right flank in the rural West which he is now leaking to Bernier and the populist Trumpite and UKIP like PPC
It is a recurring issue for the CPC. They can easily score 33%. Try to push on from there and their coalition begins to creak at the seams.
Indeed, Harper has been the only one to manage it since the merger of the PCs and Canadian Alliance (formerly Reform) in 2003 and even he only managed to get a Conservative majority in 2011, helped in part by a collapse from the Liberals in favour of the NDP who briefly became the main opposition
Yes. See my edit. That was primarily because the Liberals chose a leader less attractive as a PM than almost any other qualified citizen of Canada.
Partly but fear of the NDP who are less attractive to centrist voters than the Liberals as well was also a factor, indeed the Canadian Liberals unlike UK Labour have been in government for a majority of the postwar years for that reason. Had the more leftwing NDP generally been the Conservatives main opposition I expect the Canadian Tories would have been as successful as the UK Tories have been
I'm surprised the NDP isn't doing better TBH given the supposed popularity of their leader. They seem to be squeezing the Greens somewhat but making little headway beyond that. They are reasonably strong in BC but I have no idea how many gains they can make.
Most people don't live in a riding where the NDP is competitive. They'll be voting Liberal to keep the Tories out. Justin knows this very well.
No mention of the Californian governor recall election on here? which is today.
Is everybody predicting the 'No recall' side to win? No seems to have a small lead in pols that have been improving over the last few days, and a big lead in money, and probably a better GOTV organisation. and are big faverts on betfair.
FWIW, I think this is probably correct, but I also wonder, 'Yes to recall' to me seems to be more motivated, more enthusiastic, and this could translate in to differential turnout, which if we have reports of low overall turnout, could be an indicator that Yes is value.
Thought I would drop in on Canadian polling and the latest from yet another Research company (does anyone do any work in Canada or are they all polling each other)?
Liberals lead by four points so a swing of a couple of points from 2019. It seems that Maxime Bernier, who seems like Canada's Farage and is leading Canada's version of Reform UK, is taking a small but significant chunk out of the Conservative vote.
Liberals narrowly ahead in Ontario, further ahead in Quebec and the three parties are statistically tied in British Columbia.
Children are still getting the virus every day. The notion "the horse has bolted" is completely fallacious.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
FPT It is far too early to be confident about the next GE outcome here. As a statement of historical fact,however, Labour is better placed in the polls than at the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - ie Summer 1961 - when the party did go on to win the October 1964 election. Labour is also performing better than at the beginning of 1989 - under Kinnock it made 42 net gains in 1992 and reduced the Tory majority from 102 to 21.
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
a) don't get (very) ill; Risk from naive Covid is higher than the vaccine, the CDC have covered that.
but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed True, but it's less likely for any child. And less likely for one child = less cases in the childhood population = lower transmission to adults = lower global R.
Also if a teenager catches Covid and is vaxxed they'll have subsequent strong hybrid immunity - that keeps everything lower for longer too.
The virus hasn't passed stage 3 trials, the vaccines have - making a choice not to vaccinate when it's available essentially means you're saying the virus is safer than the vaccine. It's only "safer" if the virus is at very low levels, and those levels are achieved through .... vaccination.
This is all true when most kids haven't had Covid. In NZ, it would be completely logical to vaccinate 12-15s.
In our context, we are pretty much shutting the stable door after the horse has gone. North of 50% of the target age range probably had antibodies in July, based on the ONS numbers - I've seen a more recent (but fairly small) sterioprevalance study of this age range which suggested it could now be as high as 70%*.
So if you vax uk kids now, you get all the drawbacks for 30% of the benefits. And the benefits were pretty marginal anyway.
I'm afraid that a lot of those most keen to vax kids were wanting to do it for the population benefits, rather than because the kids benefit. IMHO this is pretty unethical. I fear the current policy represents a political pandering to this more than following the science (I think the single dose thing is an attempt to go "middle of the road" on this). The JCVI were probably right in the first place.
*Incidentally, this may well be why the return to school this time round hasn't caused the expected surge in cases - leaving aside any other interventions, this sort of level of natural immunity should put a decent dent in the R number.
But surely any vaccination is largely for the population benefit as well as the personal one? It's a contract between all of us to get vaccinated - the antivaxxers freeload on that, basically (usurping the space needed to be devoted to the ones who really can't be vaccinated for medical reasons).
Edit: And you don't have to be a Darwinist to note that children depend on their parents and their grandparents and to a lesser degree their aunts and uncles.
I think most vaccines are given because the individual gets a net gain vs getting the disease. The freeloadeling isn't without its risks (see the fairly regular mumps outbreaks in universities thanks to Andrew Wakefield's activities 20 odd years ago).
If Covid goes endemic, I don't see us vaxing teenagers in 20 years time - there will be no point, they will already have acquired sufficient immunity as smaller kids for it to be pointless (see also the other coronavirus's which just give people colds). In our current cohort of teenagers, fairly few of them will derive any benefit present or future from being vaxed - this isn't like vaxing kids against adulthood diseases they might subsequently suffer. Against this are the known downsides, plus a very small, but not completely non-existant, risk that there is some sort of long term issue from having the vaccines we don't yet know about. So in essence, no I don't think this is like ethical situation with most other childhood vaccinations.
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
a) don't get (very) ill; Risk from naive Covid is higher than the vaccine, the CDC have covered that.
but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed True, but it's less likely for any child. And less likely for one child = less cases in the childhood population = lower transmission to adults = lower global R.
Also if a teenager catches Covid and is vaxxed they'll have subsequent strong hybrid immunity - that keeps everything lower for longer too.
The virus hasn't passed stage 3 trials, the vaccines have - making a choice not to vaccinate when it's available essentially means you're saying the virus is safer than the vaccine. It's only "safer" if the virus is at very low levels, and those levels are achieved through .... vaccination.
This is all true when most kids haven't had Covid. In NZ, it would be completely logical to vaccinate 12-15s.
In our context, we are pretty much shutting the stable door after the horse has gone. North of 50% of the target age range probably had antibodies in July, based on the ONS numbers - I've seen a more recent (but fairly small) sterioprevalance study of this age range which suggested it could now be as high as 70%*.
So if you vax uk kids now, you get all the drawbacks for 30% of the benefits. And the benefits were pretty marginal anyway.
I'm afraid that a lot of those most keen to vax kids were wanting to do it for the population benefits, rather than because the kids benefit. IMHO this is pretty unethical. I fear the current policy represents a political pandering to this more than following the science (I think the single dose thing is an attempt to go "middle of the road" on this). The JCVI were probably right in the first place.
*Incidentally, this may well be why the return to school this time round hasn't caused the expected surge in cases - leaving aside any other interventions, this sort of level of natural immunity should put a decent dent in the R number.
But surely any vaccination is largely for the population benefit as well as the personal one? It's a contract between all of us to get vaccinated - the antivaxxers freeload on that, basically (usurping the space needed to be devoted to the ones who really can't be vaccinated for medical reasons).
Edit: And you don't have to be a Darwinist to note that children depend on their parents and their grandparents and to a lesser degree their aunts and uncles.
I think most vaccines are given because the individual gets a net gain vs getting the disease. The freeloadeling isn't without its risks (see the fairly regular mumps outbreaks in universities thanks to Andrew Wakefield's activities 20 odd years ago).
If Covid goes endemic, I don't see us vaxing teenagers in 20 years time - there will be no point, they will already have acquired sufficient immunity as smaller kids for it to be pointless (see also the other coronavirus's which just give people colds). In our current cohort of teenagers, fairly few of them will derive any benefit present or future from being vaxed - this isn't like vaxing kids against adulthood diseases they might subsequently suffer. Against this are the known downsides, plus a very small, but not completely non-existant, risk that there is some sort of long term issue from having the vaccines we don't yet know about. So in essence, no I don't think this is like ethical situation with most other childhood vaccinations.
OTOH, the protection to the individual does depend in considerable part on whether others are vaccinated themselves. The circs do vary between viruses but the discussion earlier today of the bus driver beijgn exposed to breakthrough doses of live virus makes the point that I was thinking about. Not an easy decision, no!
The governing coalition is down roughly six points from 2017 and holds 35 of the 63 seats in the Althing so a majority of eight. The obvious question is what alternate Government formation is there because I can't see one.
The German poll numbers better for the CDU/CSU tonight. Forsa's seat projections based on a Bundestag of 759 members as follows:
Social Democrats: 208 (+55) Union CDU/CSU: 178 (-68) Greens: 141 (+74) Alternative for Germany: 91 (-3) Free Democrats: 91 (+11) Linke: 50 (-19)
I must confess I thought the Union would be down nearer 150. I also note SPD plus Greens are 349 so close to a majority but 30 short. I just wonder the circumstances under which all the opposition parties would join forces to vote against the Government.
We need a Pirate Party! What are their policies?
I've been looking at the market for next german government and SPD+green is tempting at about 9/1 but I cant be bothered to open an Smarkets account.
There's a myth about Ben Wyvis being held on the condition the owner had to be prepared to provide the king with a bucket of snow on any day of the year.
FPT It is far too early to be confident about the next GE outcome here. As a statement of historical fact,however, Labour is better placed in the polls than at the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - ie Summer 1961 - when the party did go on to win the October 1964 election. Labour is also performing better than at the beginning of 1989 - under Kinnock it made 42 net gains in 1992 and reduced the Tory majority from 102 to 21.
Also, the idea that electoral cycles are like some kind of sine wave or at all predictable. Someone wrote a short but sweet post yesterday that just said "EVENTS". Exactly that.
+1. There is just nothing appetising about either WH2024 or Downingstrasse 202x betting ATM.
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
I can genuinely not think of a reason not to vaccinate children.
They (A) don't get (very) ill from the vaccine, and (B) the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. Plus transmission is lower if they are vaccinated, plus their education etc is less disrupted if they're vaccinated. Plus their risk of passing on the virus to a loved one is lower if they are vaccinated.
There's no good reason not to vaccinate them. What am I missing?
That some of them will get seriously ill, and a few may die from vaccination. The vaccines are good, they are pretty safe and effective, but they do come with downsides.
It's therefore quite important that the downsides don't outweigh the upsides when deciding on whether to vaccinate a group against an illness which doesn't pose much of a risk to most of them, and which many of them have already had.
This is also particularly relevant to kids, as they are often not in a position where they can assess the risks and benefits before consenting themselves.
Children are still getting the virus every day. The notion "the horse has bolted" is completely fallacious.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
In considering the pluses and minuses of vaccinating kids not nearly enough weight has been given to the risk of them having yet another year of disrupted education in my opinion. The consequences of the last couple of years will haunt some for the rest of their working life.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
Children are still getting the virus every day. The notion "the horse has bolted" is completely fallacious.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
In considering the pluses and minuses of vaccinating kids not nearly enough weight has been given to the risk of them having yet another year of disrupted education in my opinion. The consequences of the last couple of years will haunt some for the rest of their working life.
The issue with that argument is that under present rules vaccinating wouldn’t make any difference to that. If they tested positive they would still have to isolate and if they didn’t, they wouldn’t.
The governing coalition is down roughly six points from 2017 and holds 35 of the 63 seats in the Althing so a majority of eight. The obvious question is what alternate Government formation is there because I can't see one.
The German poll numbers better for the CDU/CSU tonight. Forsa's seat projections based on a Bundestag of 759 members as follows:
Social Democrats: 208 (+55) Union CDU/CSU: 178 (-68) Greens: 141 (+74) Alternative for Germany: 91 (-3) Free Democrats: 91 (+11) Linke: 50 (-19)
I must confess I thought the Union would be down nearer 150. I also note SPD plus Greens are 349 so close to a majority but 30 short. I just wonder the circumstances under which all the opposition parties would join forces to vote against the Government.
We need a Pirate Party! What are their policies?
I've been looking at the market for next german government and SPD+green is tempting at about 9/1 but I cant be bothered to open an Smarkets account.
Children are still getting the virus every day. The notion "the horse has bolted" is completely fallacious.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
In considering the pluses and minuses of vaccinating kids not nearly enough weight has been given to the risk of them having yet another year of disrupted education in my opinion. The consequences of the last couple of years will haunt some for the rest of their working life.
The issue with that argument is that under present rules vaccinating wouldn’t make any difference to that. If they tested positive they would still have to isolate and if they didn’t, they wouldn’t.
True but we don't need to keep to the same rules. My daughter finishes her 10 days isolation tomorrow. She never really felt ill but did have a sore throat for a couple of days last week. Not really sure what her isolation is supposed to have been achieving since at least the weekend.
The governing coalition is down roughly six points from 2017 and holds 35 of the 63 seats in the Althing so a majority of eight. The obvious question is what alternate Government formation is there because I can't see one.
The German poll numbers better for the CDU/CSU tonight. Forsa's seat projections based on a Bundestag of 759 members as follows:
Social Democrats: 208 (+55) Union CDU/CSU: 178 (-68) Greens: 141 (+74) Alternative for Germany: 91 (-3) Free Democrats: 91 (+11) Linke: 50 (-19)
I must confess I thought the Union would be down nearer 150. I also note SPD plus Greens are 349 so close to a majority but 30 short. I just wonder the circumstances under which all the opposition parties would join forces to vote against the Government.
We need a Pirate Party! What are their policies?
I've been looking at the market for next german government and SPD+green is tempting at about 9/1 but I cant be bothered to open an Smarkets account.
Children are still getting the virus every day. The notion "the horse has bolted" is completely fallacious.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
In considering the pluses and minuses of vaccinating kids not nearly enough weight has been given to the risk of them having yet another year of disrupted education in my opinion. The consequences of the last couple of years will haunt some for the rest of their working life.
Absolutely, but there were other options available to avoid disruption such as no longer requiring or encouraging testing of children; or not requiring children to isolate upon a positive test if not feeling unwell.
On balance I agree with vaccinating 12+, but there are simpler ways to avoid disrupting their education, so I wouldn’t place a large weight on that.
Children are still getting the virus every day. The notion "the horse has bolted" is completely fallacious.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
In considering the pluses and minuses of vaccinating kids not nearly enough weight has been given to the risk of them having yet another year of disrupted education in my opinion. The consequences of the last couple of years will haunt some for the rest of their working life.
Absolutely, but there were other options available to avoid disruption such as no longer requiring or encouraging testing of children; or not requiring children to isolate upon a positive test if not feeling unwell.
On balance I agree with vaccinating 12+, but there are simpler ways to avoid disrupting their education, so I wouldn’t place a large weight on that.
The chances of children 12-17 getting seriously ill with Covid are small but significantly smaller with vaccines which in my view would justify battering on with their education if they were vaccinated.
Surely the guidance was for winter if there is a big rise in cases, we are still barely in autumn let alone winter
I'm sure that we can all agree that winter starts on December 1st.
(Disappears into the kitchen just in case I have started WW3)
Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st
I just knew it!
@HYUFD: How can we be "barely in autumn" if "Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st"? Is autumn longer than the other seasons?
It's shorter. Don't believe the hype. All the autumnal stuff (fruit, leaf colour changes etc) starts about mid August and has happened by the end of October. It's then winter all the way to May 1.
Indeed. I don't think in Northern Europe we have 4x 3 month seasons. Summer starts on 1 May and Winter on 1 November. Bonfire Night is that first night of the year when there is an appreciable nip in the air. Spring arguably starts in February when you get those bright winter days and they start to get longer. Autumn is probably no more than late Sept and Oct.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Apologies if the employment figures were done to death earlier today when I was in court but, wow. The confident expectations that there would be a surge in unemployment as furlough wound down have been completely traduced. Instead we have a clear shortage of labour as the incredible UK jobs machine goes up to an even higher gear. It really is incredible.
What we will hopefully see now is a competition for labour improving the living standards of the low paid and casually employed. We will hopefully also see more investment in training, more apprenticeships and greater efforts to get more out of the current workforce improving productivity. Such shortages may impede growth somewhat but the long term benefits to our economy really should be considerable.
Apologies if the employment figures were done to death earlier today when I was in court but, wow. The confident expectations that there would be a surge in unemployment as furlough wound down have been completely traduced. Instead we have a clear shortage of labour as the incredible UK jobs machine goes up to an even higher gear. It really is incredible.
Yes, it's really shown me that I don't know shit, I had not the slightest doubt about such a surge. Well we live and learn.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Surely the guidance was for winter if there is a big rise in cases, we are still barely in autumn let alone winter
I'm sure that we can all agree that winter starts on December 1st.
(Disappears into the kitchen just in case I have started WW3)
Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st
I just knew it!
@HYUFD: How can we be "barely in autumn" if "Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st"? Is autumn longer than the other seasons?
It's shorter. Don't believe the hype. All the autumnal stuff (fruit, leaf colour changes etc) starts about mid August and has happened by the end of October. It's then winter all the way to May 1.
Indeed. I don't think in Northern Europe we have 4x 3 month seasons. Summer starts on 1 May and Winter on 1 November. Bonfire Night is that first night of the year when there is an appreciable nip in the air. Spring arguably starts in February when you get those bright winter days and they start to get longer. Autumn is probably no more than late Sept and Oct.
I'd extend spring further - Apples and hawthorn both blossom in May, and they are the quintessential English blossoms.
The Summer/autumn boundary is very clear. Cowes Week is end of summer, grouse shooting is beginning of autumn.
“Today, we are announcing Apple Watch Series 57, the greatest Apple Watch that we have ever done. It joins our already impressive customer offerings, including Apple Watch Series 56 and Apple Watch Series 3.” #AppleEvent
FPT It is far too early to be confident about the next GE outcome here. As a statement of historical fact,however, Labour is better placed in the polls than at the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - ie Summer 1961 - when the party did go on to win the October 1964 election. Labour is also performing better than at the beginning of 1989 - under Kinnock it made 42 net gains in 1992 and reduced the Tory majority from 102 to 21.
Also, the idea that electoral cycles are like some kind of sine wave or at all predictable. Someone wrote a short but sweet post yesterday that just said "EVENTS". Exactly that.
I can believe in broad trends, but the whole point is that they are so broad they cannot be used for minute predictions of a single GE event, so it's probably only useful for purposes of historical analysis.
Only 60+ km cycled today. Normandy's greenways aren't as good as the SW of France. Some bone shakers. Having some fantastic food and drink but frankly cardboard and paraffin would taste good at present.
Just to let HYUFD know (re earlier comments) that not all us old foggies rely on free bus passes and afternoon matinees to have fun. Most us who are fit still have a life and most of us in our 60s and 70s are in fact lucky enough to be fit. My days of squash, skiing black runs and pitchpoleing catamarans are behind me, but I can still match many younger than me at other activities and I'm not to be written off yet.
Where are you cycling in Normandy? I know almost every road for cycling North of a line between Caen and Bayeux from Summers spent there. I miss it terribly as the scenery combined with quiet roads through the wheat fields was a beautiful experience.
@AlistairM greenways from Cherbourg to St Malo ( which adds about 100 km to the route). Currently typing from L'Angle.
Apologies if the employment figures were done to death earlier today when I was in court but, wow. The confident expectations that there would be a surge in unemployment as furlough wound down have been completely traduced. Instead we have a clear shortage of labour as the incredible UK jobs machine goes up to an even higher gear. It really is incredible.
What we will hopefully see now is a competition for labour improving the living standards of the low paid and casually employed. We will hopefully also see more investment in training, more apprenticeships and greater efforts to get more out of the current workforce improving productivity. Such shortages may impede growth somewhat but the long term benefits to our economy really should be considerable.
All the better to pay more NI to keep wealthy home owners in their property and enriching their elderly, already well-off offspring.
“Today, we are announcing Apple Watch Series 57, the greatest Apple Watch that we have ever done. It joins our already impressive customer offerings, including Apple Watch Series 56 and Apple Watch Series 3.” #AppleEvent
I recall reading that the genius of Apple was that it produces products that don't cost that much to make (even if they are high quality), yet has somehow convinced the world to let them price their stuff as luxury items, making them so much more profitable. Not sure how they pulled that off.
FPT It is far too early to be confident about the next GE outcome here. As a statement of historical fact,however, Labour is better placed in the polls than at the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - ie Summer 1961 - when the party did go on to win the October 1964 election. Labour is also performing better than at the beginning of 1989 - under Kinnock it made 42 net gains in 1992 and reduced the Tory majority from 102 to 21.
Also, the idea that electoral cycles are like some kind of sine wave or at all predictable. Someone wrote a short but sweet post yesterday that just said "EVENTS". Exactly that.
The art of betting is to seperate the wheat from the chaff and make estimates - no one who knows anything about it would claim thta things are entirely predictable, but it is interesting, and I think possible, to try and work out some basics.
What we seem to get here, when people try to make a case for Con MAJ not being a good bet, is "black swans" , "events", and "what ifs". If someone says they think Man Utd are a decent bet to beat Young Boys at 1.5 or whatever they were, someone else saying "Yeah but what if they get someone sent off and then concede a last minute goal?" isnt any kind of help, even though it happened
Basically if there were no chance of a black swan, what if, event the Con MAJ price would be about 2/5 rather than 11/8, so its all in the price
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Well, the influence was in Sidious.
Some would say that was weak. I'm not the kind of guy who Judges, though. And a good Job too.
Interesting anecdata from today. A colleague who was by me in the vaccine queue, so got Pfizer right back in December, picked up the Delta from his grandson. Asian, overweight and over seventy so quite high risk. Picked up on LFT at work, confirmed on PCR, asymptomatic at the time. He had a mild temperature for a day, but nothing really in the way of symptoms and back at work.
That's what the vaccine does, turns a killer into a minor annoyance.
Without doubting the efficacy of the vaccines in reducing risk - even though the chap was in a higher risk cohort, surely the odds were on that outcome anyway weren't they?
Well, it's a counter factual, so nobody knows for sure.
However, to repeat my (extremely repeated) mantra: viral load matters.
People working in hospitals are going to be around a lot of people who are both unvaccinated and infected. They are therefore likely to get big doses of Delta, and therefore be far more likely suffer a breakthrough infection than regular people.
I would expect to see far more (and more serious) vaccine breakthrough cases in hospitals than in other places.
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
If anyone thinks I'm being illiberal by questioning the decision to allow vaccinations to children without parental consent, I'm actually being the opposite. Basic Millian liberalism:
“It is, perhaps, hardly necessary to say that this doctrine is meant to apply only to human beings in the maturity of their faculties. We are not speaking of children, or of young persons below the age which the law may fix as that of manhood or womanhood. Those who are still in a state to require being taken care of by others, must be protected against their own actions as well as against external injury.” J S Mill
I think it's very simple: is the child Gillick competent? If so, they can make the call. If not, their parents can. We wouldn't accept five year olds making the decision on their own. And nor would we accept a sceptical parent preventing a 17 year old from choosing to recieve the vaccine.
Some fecking idiots in Bradford being interviewed on Look North about Covid.
Let me guess they think it's a hoax?
Not that extreme. Just, 'vaccine sceptic', shall we say. One brainwashed child even said she wouldn't have a jab because 'it's not a proper vaccine, it hasn't been properly tested'. On balance, however, the kids talked more sense than the parents.
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Apologies if the employment figures were done to death earlier today when I was in court but, wow. The confident expectations that there would be a surge in unemployment as furlough wound down have been completely traduced. Instead we have a clear shortage of labour as the incredible UK jobs machine goes up to an even higher gear. It really is incredible.
What we will hopefully see now is a competition for labour improving the living standards of the low paid and casually employed. We will hopefully also see more investment in training, more apprenticeships and greater efforts to get more out of the current workforce improving productivity. Such shortages may impede growth somewhat but the long term benefits to our economy really should be considerable.
All the better to pay more NI to keep wealthy home owners in their property and enriching their elderly, already well-off offspring.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Well, the influence was in Sidious.
Some would say that was weak. I'm not the kind of guy who Judges, though. And a good Job too.
Hang on, why are we doing Biblical puns? This whole thing had its genesis in your attempt to pun on Attack of the Clones. How did it lee’d on to the Book of Job?
I can genuinely not think of a reason to vaccinate children. They a) don't get (very) ill; and b) can still get and transmit the virus. Perhaps transmission is lower if they are vaccinated but it would be lower if they are asymptomatic, which most are.
The govt says to avoid people being off school but children can still get the virus having been vaxxed so if they do they will be off school anyway. Meanwhile, bubbles as I understand it have been abolished so whole classes won't be sent home.
What am I missing?
I can genuinely not think of a reason not to vaccinate children.
They (A) don't get (very) ill from the vaccine, and (B) the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. Plus transmission is lower if they are vaccinated, plus their education etc is less disrupted if they're vaccinated. Plus their risk of passing on the virus to a loved one is lower if they are vaccinated.
There's no good reason not to vaccinate them. What am I missing?
That some of them will get seriously ill, and a few may die from vaccination. The vaccines are good, they are pretty safe and effective, but they do come with downsides.
It's therefore quite important that the downsides don't outweigh the upsides when deciding on whether to vaccinate a group against an illness which doesn't pose much of a risk to most of them, and which many of them have already had.
This is also particularly relevant to kids, as they are often not in a position where they can assess the risks and benefits before consenting themselves.
Some may die from the virus.
If you're saying you're unconcerned about the risk from the virus, then how can you be bothered by the even lower risk from the vaccine?
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Also, she said she never voted Conservative.
Imagine that mother-son relationship. Eeek. My guess is: Troubled
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
If anyone thinks I'm being illiberal by questioning the decision to allow vaccinations to children without parental consent, I'm actually being the opposite. Basic Millian liberalism:
“It is, perhaps, hardly necessary to say that this doctrine is meant to apply only to human beings in the maturity of their faculties. We are not speaking of children, or of young persons below the age which the law may fix as that of manhood or womanhood. Those who are still in a state to require being taken care of by others, must be protected against their own actions as well as against external injury.” J S Mill
I think it's very simple: is the child Gillick competent? If so, they can make the call. If not, their parents can. We wouldn't accept five year olds making the decision on their own. And nor would we accept a sceptical parent preventing a 17 year old from choosing to recieve the vaccine.
Absolutely. The Gillick compromise is a long-established precedent to answer that question - I see no reason to vary from that.
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Also, she said she never voted Conservative.
Imagine that mother-son relationship. Eeek. My guess is: Troubled
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
In her own words a proud rich socialist. So not only never voted Tory, but vehemently opposed. And of course her relationship with Stanley was very troubled and she ended up in psychiatric unit, in part to his affairs, he hit her, etc...and her son...a tory...serial adulterier acting a lot like her ex-husband....i can't imagine how it wouldn't be strained.
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Also, she said she never voted Conservative.
Imagine that mother-son relationship. Eeek. My guess is: Troubled
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
He was impressive today. They have also finally got to the right policy stance having spent the summer exploring all the wrong alternatives.
Surely the guidance was for winter if there is a big rise in cases, we are still barely in autumn let alone winter
I'm sure that we can all agree that winter starts on December 1st.
(Disappears into the kitchen just in case I have started WW3)
Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st
I just knew it!
@HYUFD: How can we be "barely in autumn" if "Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st"? Is autumn longer than the other seasons?
It's shorter. Don't believe the hype. All the autumnal stuff (fruit, leaf colour changes etc) starts about mid August and has happened by the end of October. It's then winter all the way to May 1.
Indeed. I don't think in Northern Europe we have 4x 3 month seasons. Summer starts on 1 May and Winter on 1 November. Bonfire Night is that first night of the year when there is an appreciable nip in the air. Spring arguably starts in February when you get those bright winter days and they start to get longer. Autumn is probably no more than late Sept and Oct.
Ooh, pointless, but fun: I'll go for: The start of spring is the most varied and is entirely weather dependent - because there is no big event to hang it on. The 1st of March or the 21st of March can slip by without you noticing if you're not concentrating. But you do notice the first day on which you don't have to wear a coat. And the flowers arrive gradually; but in a good year the blossom all arrives at once in one big power chord. Sometime this also coincides with daughter #1's birthday. (It certainly did the year she was born. It was as if the world had been waiting for that moment. The country of Iceland also elected to celebrate the event with a massive volcanic erruption.) Summer starts with the Whit holidays. The last day of summer is the August bank holiday. On which day I listen to 'David's Last Summer' by Pulp, and am wistful. There are then five or six days which aren't any season, including daughter #2's birthday; Autumn starts when the kids go back to school. Autumn lasts until Christmas starts. Which for most sane people is when you open tour first window on the advent calendar on December 1st. (Pedantic religious types: I don't want to hear it.) This is also a quarter day for us: daughter #3's birthday. (Christmas decorations are not allowed up until her birthday is done).
Here is somewhere that PB top gear fans should recognise:
It's hard to tell at that resolution, but Bealach na Ba down from Applecross?
When I walked that, it was in fog. My GF - driving a motorhome - took the postman's path.
Edit: I think not, with those mountains in the background. hmmm....
Sorry, that’s my fault for trying to post straight from the mobile phone, which clearly doesn’t work well. Try this:
[deleted - answere already given I see]
Indeed. Does Scotland have snow still on its tops in September, I wonder?
That's a whole game in itself. As you can imagine, there are people who monitor such things.
There's 3 or 4 patches that normally survive through to the following winter but they do melt out in the odd year (although increasingly so in the past decade or two).
Two are under Braeriach in the Cairngorms, named Sphinx and Pinnacles after the climbs above, one is on Aonach Beag (the twin of Aonach Mor, which has Nevis Range ski area) and one is to be found on Ben Nevis (Observatory Gully).
Some years there are many more, but these are the usual suspects.
This year it looks like all but one (Aonach Beag) will melt out.
Of course, it can snow temporarily in any month. I've been snowed on in July when camped on the high tops.
Some people believe there were small glaciers in the 1750s but nobody has come up with any incontrovertible evidence. There's something that resembles a moraine below the Sphinx and Pinnacles patches but it might just be a protalus rampart (I'll leave that to Wikipedia to explain).
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Also, she said she never voted Conservative.
Imagine that mother-son relationship. Eeek. My guess is: Troubled
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
In her own words a proud rich socialist. So not only never voted Tory, but vehemently opposed. And of course her relationship with Stanley was very troubled and she ended up in psychiatric unit, in part to his affairs, he hit her, etc...and her son...a tory...serial adulterier acting a lot like her ex-husband....i can't imagine how it wouldn't be strained.
4 children Boris, Rachel, Leo and Jo. I want to know about Leo.
I haven't changed my iphone in at least 2 years. The changes now are tiny and incremental. The hassle of upgrading isn't worth the cost of upgrade
This must eventually be a problem for Apple (and Samsung etc). They have perfected the tech and it doesn't get much better
There are a number of avenues for step change, but the tech isn't there yet, so we are in a holding pattern, and this stupud detour into folding phones.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Well, the influence was in Sidious.
Some would say that was weak. I'm not the kind of guy who Judges, though. And a good Job too.
Hang on, why are we doing Biblical puns? This whole thing had its genesis in your attempt to pun on Attack of the Clones. How did it lee’d on to the Book of Job?
Isn't it obvious?
The house he builds is like a moth’s cocoon, like a Hutt made by a watchman.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Well, the influence was in Sidious.
Some would say that was weak. I'm not the kind of guy who Judges, though. And a good Job too.
Hang on, why are we doing Biblical puns? This whole thing had its genesis in your attempt to pun on Attack of the Clones. How did it lee’d on to the Book of Job?
Isn't it obvious?
The house he builds is like a moth’s cocoon, like a Hutt made by a watchman.
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Also, she said she never voted Conservative.
Imagine that mother-son relationship. Eeek. My guess is: Troubled
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
In her own words a proud rich socialist. So not only never voted Tory, but vehemently opposed. And of course her relationship with Stanley was very troubled and she ended up in psychiatric unit, in part to his affairs, he hit her, etc...and her son...a tory...serial adulterier acting a lot like her ex-husband....i can't imagine how it wouldn't be strained.
4 children Boris, Rachel, Leo and Jo. I want to know about Leo.
Works in finance i believe. Apparently married to an afghan lady, not sure Boris going to be flavour of the month.
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Well, the influence was in Sidious.
Some would say that was weak. I'm not the kind of guy who Judges, though. And a good Job too.
Hang on, why are we doing Biblical puns? This whole thing had its genesis in your attempt to pun on Attack of the Clones. How did it lee’d on to the Book of Job?
Isn't it obvious?
The house he builds is like a moth’s cocoon, like a Hutt made by a watchman.
Job 27.18
Oh dear, you’re back to Jabba ing on.
I'm giving up now, I have a darth of good responses to that.
Can we have a moment of sincere respect for Boris Johnson?
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
Also, she said she never voted Conservative.
Imagine that mother-son relationship. Eeek. My guess is: Troubled
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
In her own words a proud rich socialist. So not only never voted Tory, but vehemently opposed. And of course her relationship with Stanley was very troubled and she ended up in psychiatric unit, in part to his affairs, he hit her, etc...and her son...a tory...serial adulterier acting a lot like her ex-husband....i can't imagine how it wouldn't be strained.
4 children Boris, Rachel, Leo and Jo. I want to know about Leo.
IIRC Leo is a bit of a leftie and Starmer fan.
It is the half brother Max that is an utter wanker.
“Today, we are announcing Apple Watch Series 57, the greatest Apple Watch that we have ever done. It joins our already impressive customer offerings, including Apple Watch Series 56 and Apple Watch Series 3.” #AppleEvent
I spent most of the 1990s trying to persuade people at school that Apple products were far better than the Windows equivalents, with almost zero success. Haven't bought any Apples products for 5 years though ,because I thinK they've become complacent and arrogant in recent years.
Surely the guidance was for winter if there is a big rise in cases, we are still barely in autumn let alone winter
I'm sure that we can all agree that winter starts on December 1st.
(Disappears into the kitchen just in case I have started WW3)
Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st
I just knew it!
@HYUFD: How can we be "barely in autumn" if "Astronomical winter only begins on December 21st"? Is autumn longer than the other seasons?
It's shorter. Don't believe the hype. All the autumnal stuff (fruit, leaf colour changes etc) starts about mid August and has happened by the end of October. It's then winter all the way to May 1.
Indeed. I don't think in Northern Europe we have 4x 3 month seasons. Summer starts on 1 May and Winter on 1 November. Bonfire Night is that first night of the year when there is an appreciable nip in the air. Spring arguably starts in February when you get those bright winter days and they start to get longer. Autumn is probably no more than late Sept and Oct.
Ooh, pointless, but fun: I'll go for: The start of spring is the most varied and is entirely weather dependent - because there is no big event to hang it on. The 1st of March or the 21st of March can slip by without you noticing if you're not concentrating. But you do notice the first day on which you don't have to wear a coat. And the flowers arrive gradually; but in a good year the blossom all arrives at once in one big power chord. Sometime this also coincides with daughter #1's birthday. (It certainly did the year she was born. It was as if the world had been waiting for that moment. The country of Iceland also elected to celebrate the event with a massive volcanic erruption.) Summer starts with the Whit holidays. The last day of summer is the August bank holiday. On which day I listen to 'David's Last Summer' by Pulp, and am wistful. There are then five or six days which aren't any season, including daughter #2's birthday; Autumn starts when the kids go back to school. Autumn lasts until Christmas starts. Which for most sane people is when you open tour first window on the advent calendar on December 1st. (Pedantic religious types: I don't want to hear it.) This is also a quarter day for us: daughter #3's birthday. (Christmas decorations are not allowed up until her birthday is done).
I identify southern English seasons by travel, or at least I did pre-Covid
Winter is when you GO THE FUCK AWAY. That means a large chunk of November, but then ~December 31 to about March 25. Ideally you go to Thailand. Failing that, Australia or the Caribbean, or maybe Namibia. Fuck, anywhere with warm sun
Spring is when you COME BACK, Enjoy England in Spring (if it's a really late Spring like this year, grab the odd week in Egypt or India). Roughly, late March to end May
Summer is when you HOVER BETWEEN THE MEDITERANEAN AND LONDON. Summer can be great in London, but if you see a crummy fortnight ahead, bug out to Portugal or Greece. Or Sicily. Roughly early June to mid September
Autumn is the season for EXPERIMENTS, Guatemala! Two weeks in rustling London. Then.... Ethiopia! Then back to London for oysters. Rinse and repeat
Always fun to see if one can remember what one was doing on a random day in history. I wondered what I was doing the day Emma Raducanu was born (13 November 2002). And I can. I was annoyed that we only had terrestrial television and I couldn't watch Feyenoord 2-3 Newcastle United on ITV2 (ITV were showing Man Utd on ITV1, even though they already through).
13 Nov 2002 was a Wednesday. A work day, so I don't imagine I had time to do anything remarkable. I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to. More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
I attended a seminar on the origins of Western Christendom and then had a film night with a friend where we watched a pirated version of Attack of the Clones.
After a day like that, you must have come away with some interesting ideas about the geonosis of the Roman church.
Well, the influence was in Sidious.
Some would say that was weak. I'm not the kind of guy who Judges, though. And a good Job too.
Hang on, why are we doing Biblical puns? This whole thing had its genesis in your attempt to pun on Attack of the Clones. How did it lee’d on to the Book of Job?
Isn't it obvious?
The house he builds is like a moth’s cocoon, like a Hutt made by a watchman.
Job 27.18
Oh dear, you’re back to Jabba ing on.
I'm giving up now, I have a darth of good responses to that.
“Today, we are announcing Apple Watch Series 57, the greatest Apple Watch that we have ever done. It joins our already impressive customer offerings, including Apple Watch Series 56 and Apple Watch Series 3.” #AppleEvent
I spent most of the 1990s trying to persuade people that Apple products were far better than the Windows equivalents, with almost zero success. Haven't bought any Apples products for 5 years though ,because I thinK they've become complacent and arrogant in recent years.
I wonder what Jony Ive has been up to the past few years since he technically left Apple. Its all very hush hush.
Comments
Groups doing the pass today included vintage porches, Austin minors, open topped MGs, and a bunch of tractors. The faces of those coming up behind the tractors were a picture.
The number of people cycling up was seriously awe inspiring. Especially seeing the ones at the bottom, knowing what they had ahead of them.
I’d guess that the density of early to late middle aged wankers with fast cars is greater on that road than anywhere else in the world.
Out and about today and it's clear the current spell of mask wearing, certainly in London and Surrey, seems to be coming to an end. Although apparently compulsory on Transport for London services and stations, the absence of any kind of enforcement means it's an instruction becoming more honoured in the breach than the observance.
Not much of any great surprise in the latest pronouncements. We all knew, once the Mail got its teeth into it, the Government would give away on boosters so 30 million or so between next week and Christmas you'd think.
The encouraging case numbers do suggest to this observer the status quo can continue and it's hard not to argue the Government is taking a sensible, managed approach. Whether that will be matched by the public as we move deeper into autumn and especially if there are signs of raising case numbers and hospitalisations remains to be seen.
On to other things - the final wrap on Norway's election. The centre-left parties won 100 seats in the Storting but with the Red Party (8 seats and apparently a 1,000 new members overnight) and the Greens (3 seats, just missing the 4% barrier) not involved, Labour leader Store is looking to form a majority Government with the Centre and Socialist Left. That would have 89 seats in the new Storting but forming the coalition may not be entirely simple.
The Conservatives and Progress fell from 40% combined to 32% but that 8 point move wasn't to Labour, Centre picked up three points and the left parties (Socialist Left and Red) gained four points between them.
Of perhaps more concern, Democrats for Norway (most closely aligned with the Sweden Democrats and the Dansk Folkeparti) moved up from 0.2% to 1.2% which won them nothing. Their best vote was in Dyroy in Troms & Finnmark where they won 4.6% and benefitted from a near 14 point drop in support for Progress and the Conservatives.
In our context, we are pretty much shutting the stable door after the horse has gone. North of 50% of the target age range probably had antibodies in July, based on the ONS numbers - I've seen a more recent (but fairly small) sterioprevalance study of this age range which suggested it could now be as high as 70%*.
So if you vax uk kids now, you get all the drawbacks for 30% of the benefits. And the benefits were pretty marginal anyway.
I'm afraid that a lot of those most keen to vax kids were wanting to do it for the population benefits, rather than because the kids benefit.
IMHO this is pretty unethical. I fear the current policy represents a political pandering to this more than following the science (I think the single dose thing is an attempt to go "middle of the road"). The JCVI were probably right in the first place.
*Incidentally, this may well be why the return to school this time round hasn't caused the expected surge in cases - leaving aside any other interventions, this sort of level of natural immunity should put a decent dent in the R number.
Edit: And you don't have to be a Darwinist to note that children depend on their parents and their grandparents and to a lesser degree their aunts and uncles.
PS very nice photo - esp when blown up!
People from Austria really do go to Germany on holiday to see more mountains, which is remarkable. I was sitting next to a guy in the brewery beer garden a couple of days back, he turned out to be from Innsbruck having a mountain walking holiday in Bavaria. I suggested he might consider holidaying somewhere totally different, like Holland, but he just looked at me like I was an idiot.
Changes from 2017 Althing election:
Independence Party:* 22.0% (-3.2)
Progressive Party:* 12.9% (+2.2)
Left-Green Movement:* 11.8% (-5.1)
Pirate Party: 11.0% (+1.8)
Social Democrats: 11.0% (-1.1)
Reform Party: 9.9% (+3.2)
Icelandic Socialist Party: 7.8% (+7.8)
Centre Party: 7.6% (-3.3)
People's Party: 4.9% (-2.0)
The governing coalition is down roughly six points from 2017 and holds 35 of the 63 seats in the Althing so a majority of eight. The obvious question is what alternate Government formation is there because I can't see one.
The German poll numbers better for the CDU/CSU tonight. Forsa's seat projections based on a Bundestag of 759 members as follows:
Social Democrats: 208 (+55)
Union CDU/CSU: 178 (-68)
Greens: 141 (+74)
Alternative for Germany: 91 (-3)
Free Democrats: 91 (+11)
Linke: 50 (-19)
I must confess I thought the Union would be down nearer 150. I also note SPD plus Greens are 349 so close to a majority but 30 short. I just wonder the circumstances under which all the opposition parties would join forces to vote against the Government.
Is everybody predicting the 'No recall' side to win? No seems to have a small lead in pols that have been improving over the last few days, and a big lead in money, and probably a better GOTV organisation. and are big faverts on betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.186156727
FWIW, I think this is probably correct, but I also wonder, 'Yes to recall' to me seems to be more motivated, more enthusiastic, and this could translate in to differential turnout, which if we have reports of low overall turnout, could be an indicator that Yes is value.
https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Release_Politics_CAN_14Sep2021.pdf
Liberals lead by four points so a swing of a couple of points from 2019. It seems that Maxime Bernier, who seems like Canada's Farage and is leading Canada's version of Reform UK, is taking a small but significant chunk out of the Conservative vote.
Liberals narrowly ahead in Ontario, further ahead in Quebec and the three parties are statistically tied in British Columbia.
We've had an email from the school today informing us that 2 children have tested positive with the virus, one in my daughter's class and one in another class. And this is a pretty small school (only 1 class per year). Both kids are now required to miss the next fortnight of their schooling. This is a primary school so vaccines don't apply but the same will be happening in secondary schools across the country.
The vaccine is much better to get than the virus is. If you think the risk of the virus is extremely low you must also surely logically think the risk of the vaccine is microscopically low, so why would you logically not vaccinate kids?
If our kids were eligible for the vaccine I'd 100% take them to get vaccinated as soon as they were eligible. Just signed the authorisation forms for the school to give them their annual flu vaccine.
It is far too early to be confident about the next GE outcome here. As a statement of historical fact,however, Labour is better placed in the polls than at the same stage of the 1959 Parliament - ie Summer 1961 - when the party did go on to win the October 1964 election. Labour is also performing better than at the beginning of 1989 - under Kinnock it made 42 net gains in 1992 and reduced the Tory majority from 102 to 21.
If Covid goes endemic, I don't see us vaxing teenagers in 20 years time - there will be no point, they will already have acquired sufficient immunity as smaller kids for it to be pointless (see also the other coronavirus's which just give people colds).
In our current cohort of teenagers, fairly few of them will derive any benefit present or future from being vaxed - this isn't like vaxing kids against adulthood diseases they might subsequently suffer. Against this are the known downsides, plus a very small, but not completely non-existant, risk that there is some sort of long term issue from having the vaccines we don't yet know about.
So in essence, no I don't think this is like ethical situation with most other childhood vaccinations.
I've been looking at the market for next german government and SPD+green is tempting at about 9/1 but I cant be bothered to open an Smarkets account.
TBH Young Boys deserved to win.
It's therefore quite important that the downsides don't outweigh the upsides when deciding on whether to vaccinate a group against an illness which doesn't pose much of a risk to most of them, and which many of them have already had.
This is also particularly relevant to kids, as they are often not in a position where they can assess the risks and benefits before consenting themselves.
I was actually keeping a diary at the time, though I don't know where that got to.
More to the point, it was only a couple of years from this point until pb.com came into the world. Pb is almost as old as Emma Raducanu. She was less than three at the time of the Cheadle by-election, an incident which seems only yesterday.
Lots of nations have a pirate party.
Generally they are pro free speech and anti copyright law, also tend to be big on doing things on the internet, e.g. voting.
On balance I agree with vaccinating 12+, but there are simpler ways to avoid disrupting their education, so I wouldn’t place a large weight on that.
What we will hopefully see now is a competition for labour improving the living standards of the low paid and casually employed. We will hopefully also see more investment in training, more apprenticeships and greater efforts to get more out of the current workforce improving productivity. Such shortages may impede growth somewhat but the long term benefits to our economy really should be considerable.
What about Liz Kendall? Or Yvette Cooper?
The Summer/autumn boundary is very clear. Cowes Week is end of summer, grouse shooting is beginning of autumn.
“Today, we are announcing Apple Watch Series 57, the greatest Apple Watch that we have ever done. It joins our already impressive customer offerings, including Apple Watch Series 56 and Apple Watch Series 3.” #AppleEvent
https://twitter.com/jonyiveparody/status/1437462250995036162
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Norwegian_parliamentary_election#2021
What we seem to get here, when people try to make a case for Con MAJ not being a good bet, is "black swans" , "events", and "what ifs". If someone says they think Man Utd are a decent bet to beat Young Boys at 1.5 or whatever they were, someone else saying "Yeah but what if they get someone sent off and then concede a last minute goal?" isnt any kind of help, even though it happened
Basically if there were no chance of a black swan, what if, event the Con MAJ price would be about 2/5 rather than 11/8, so its all in the price
However, to repeat my (extremely repeated) mantra: viral load matters.
People working in hospitals are going to be around a lot of people who are both unvaccinated and infected. They are therefore likely to get big doses of Delta, and therefore be far more likely suffer a breakthrough infection than regular people.
I would expect to see far more (and more serious) vaccine breakthrough cases in hospitals than in other places.
His mother died in the last 24 hours. Yet he did that press conference this afternoon, and with some wit and panache (and also his usual bumbling shtick)
I don't care what you think of his politics. That showed Thatcherite levels of grit and professionalism. He got on with a more important job than private grief
I just hope he has someone in Number 10 to cheer him up, with amusing gifs or correspondence or drunken jokes. He surely needs it
/joke
If you're saying you're unconcerned about the risk from the virus, then how can you be bothered by the even lower risk from the vaccine?
So he will be feeling very fucked up, today. And yet he went on with the presser
He's often accused of being a frivolous lightweight, today was the opposite. Whatever his motivations, he stood up and did the task, when he could have cried off and no one would have whined
I hope Starmer acknowledges his loss tomorrow. I'm sure he will. I don't think much of Sir Kir Royale as a politician, but he seems a very decent guy, deep down
This must eventually be a problem for Apple (and Samsung etc). They have perfected the tech and it doesn't get much better
https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1437815194751754245?s=19
I'll go for:
The start of spring is the most varied and is entirely weather dependent - because there is no big event to hang it on. The 1st of March or the 21st of March can slip by without you noticing if you're not concentrating. But you do notice the first day on which you don't have to wear a coat. And the flowers arrive gradually; but in a good year the blossom all arrives at once in one big power chord. Sometime this also coincides with daughter #1's birthday. (It certainly did the year she was born. It was as if the world had been waiting for that moment. The country of Iceland also elected to celebrate the event with a massive volcanic erruption.)
Summer starts with the Whit holidays.
The last day of summer is the August bank holiday. On which day I listen to 'David's Last Summer' by Pulp, and am wistful.
There are then five or six days which aren't any season, including daughter #2's birthday; Autumn starts when the kids go back to school.
Autumn lasts until Christmas starts. Which for most sane people is when you open tour first window on the advent calendar on December 1st. (Pedantic religious types: I don't want to hear it.) This is also a quarter day for us: daughter #3's birthday. (Christmas decorations are not allowed up until her birthday is done).
Gold or baby blue.
Definitely need that 1 TB storage space.
There's 3 or 4 patches that normally survive through to the following winter but they do melt out in the odd year (although increasingly so in the past decade or two).
Two are under Braeriach in the Cairngorms, named Sphinx and Pinnacles after the climbs above, one is on Aonach Beag (the twin of Aonach Mor, which has Nevis Range ski area) and one is to be found on Ben Nevis (Observatory Gully).
Some years there are many more, but these are the usual suspects.
This year it looks like all but one (Aonach Beag) will melt out.
Of course, it can snow temporarily in any month. I've been snowed on in July when camped on the high tops.
Some people believe there were small glaciers in the 1750s but nobody has come up with any incontrovertible evidence. There's something that resembles a moraine below the Sphinx and Pinnacles patches but it might just be a protalus rampart (I'll leave that to Wikipedia to explain).
He saved America and democracy.
Never mention his potato faux pas ever again.
I want to know about Leo.
The house he builds is like a moth’s cocoon,
like a Hutt made by a watchman.
Job 27.18
I'm so deep in the Apple ecosystem.
I just worked out I have fourteen Apple devices in my name.
It is the half brother Max that is an utter wanker.
Edit - Here's Leo's pro Starmer stuff.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8190289/ANDREW-PIERCE-Boris-Johnsons-little-brother-Labours-new-leader.html
Winter is when you GO THE FUCK AWAY. That means a large chunk of November, but then ~December 31 to about March 25. Ideally you go to Thailand. Failing that, Australia or the Caribbean, or maybe Namibia. Fuck, anywhere with warm sun
Spring is when you COME BACK, Enjoy England in Spring (if it's a really late Spring like this year, grab the odd week in Egypt or India). Roughly, late March to end May
Summer is when you HOVER BETWEEN THE MEDITERANEAN AND LONDON. Summer can be great in London, but if you see a crummy fortnight ahead, bug out to Portugal or Greece. Or Sicily. Roughly early June to mid September
Autumn is the season for EXPERIMENTS, Guatemala! Two weeks in rustling London. Then.... Ethiopia! Then back to London for oysters. Rinse and repeat
That's how it should be.
I broke a laptop two days after Apple Care ended and they still fixed as if it was still under Apple Care.
France, Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll:
Run-off
Macron (LREM-RE): 52% (-3)
Le Pen (RN-ID): 48% (+3)
+/- vs. 15-16 April 2021
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1437862049963560967