Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

As we approach the twentieth anniversary of 9/11 – politicalbetting.com

13567

Comments

  • stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
  • kle4 said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Restrictions are a massive imposition notwithstanding they have been popular in a time of crisis, with devastating economic impacts. The gov will really really not want to impose serious ones again unless it has no choice - I'd submit deaths would need to rise much much more for them to consider it, more than the present rises lagging cases would suggest.

    As stodge suggests, in practice most restrictions were enforced voluntarily and morally, goverment enforcement was impossible given how severe the restrictions were. Until the public panic again, they won't want more restrictions either.
    i agree and im only talking about going back to may level of restrictions not a full lockdown. However as we go into autumn and the media fear ramps up there is a danger of the public panicing again...lets hope not
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 43,783

    Prof Alice Roberts💙
    @theAliceRoberts
    ·
    2h
    The UK is carrying out a unique experiment in just ditching precautions and allowing such high numbers of cases -
    @chrischirp
    sharing this comparison at the
    @IndependentSage briefing. 1000 deaths a week has somehow become normalised.

    ==


    Yet we see no widespread public alarm as to where we are with things and certainly no clamour for lockdown or making pubs social distance.

    So maybe 1000 deaths a week is the acceptable level for this new disease at least for a while anyway?

    It depends upon who the 1000 people dying per week are.

    They seem to be either anti-vaxxers or sick oldies dying with rather than from covid.

    Hence the lack of concern from everyone else.
    Ed Conway posted the data....it is basically antivaxxers and over 80s. Under 60 and vaxxed, watch out for that bus, as that is more likely to kill you.
    And some (many?) of those 80+ years olds would have died this coming winter from flu in a normal season.

    To be blunt.
    that was true in the first wave as well...didnt stop us lockdowning then or in january. You could have made that argument as to why we shouldnt have locked down in january. It was always the case a substantial proportion of deaths were oldies at deaths door even before the vaccine
    Yeh, but I think that a) people in general have run out of road as far as what they are prepared to do personally and what they think the economy can handle and b) the vaccine has changed how people view the whole thing.

    Good luck to Johnson if he thinks he might be persuaded by the Mike 'Covid Finder General' Gove to lockdown again this winter or even half term - based on people I have contact with, it 'aint gonna happen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,752
    edited September 10

    For any who haven't seen it this is a gripping documentary on Bush during September 11th:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000z8p5/911-inside-the-presidents-war-room

    Agree. So much insight.

    Feel bad for giggling at one point during that documentary though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 19,045
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sadly the covid situation in the uK is now getting substantially worse. Last 4 days of death figures 209, 191, 167, 147. Weve gone from the odd day over 100 deaths to averaging around 170 deaths per day. This with case numbers broadly flat. In other words the ratio of deaths to cases is rising substantially and it is still only early september. I would think is this continues a return to the may level of restrictions is likely

    It's rising, but it is not anywhere near mass restrictions level of justification, this chart of deaths demonstrating why.

    A better view of the recent situation.

    image

    Cases proceed hospitalisations which proceed deaths. So when cases stop rising as fast (or indeed fall), the ratio of cases to deaths rises.
    except cases hit 50000 in july and havent got past that peak. Whereas deaths have continued to rise steadily to new highs. Also hospitalisations are above the july peak despite lower cases
    Isn't that just a rather boring consequence of deaths lagging cases?

    The number I would fixate on is number in hospital, and in particular those on mechanical ventilators.

    If that is showing a sustained upward trend, then we need to get worried.
    R calculated from hospital admissions -

    image
  • rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sadly the covid situation in the uK is now getting substantially worse. Last 4 days of death figures 209, 191, 167, 147. Weve gone from the odd day over 100 deaths to averaging around 170 deaths per day. This with case numbers broadly flat. In other words the ratio of deaths to cases is rising substantially and it is still only early september. I would think is this continues a return to the may level of restrictions is likely

    It's rising, but it is not anywhere near mass restrictions level of justification, this chart of deaths demonstrating why.

    A better view of the recent situation.

    image

    Cases proceed hospitalisations which proceed deaths. So when cases stop rising as fast (or indeed fall), the ratio of cases to deaths rises.
    except cases hit 50000 in july and havent got past that peak. Whereas deaths have continued to rise steadily to new highs. Also hospitalisations are above the july peak despite lower cases
    Isn't that just a rather boring consequence of deaths lagging cases?

    The number I would fixate on is number in hospital, and in particular those on mechanical ventilators.

    If that is showing a sustained upward trend, then we need to get worried.
    no deaths do lag case but not by around 8 weeks which is the time since the july peak. Something else is going on
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,718
    2001-09-11

    I was working as a teaching assistant at an EBD school and my mother phoned me to tell me what had happened as I was waiting for one of my buses home. Arrived home in time to see the towers collapse.

    My step-mother was distraught that my Dad, who was working in Docklands, wasn't rushing home, convinced that the towers there were moments away from being similarly attacked.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970

    For any who haven't seen it this is a gripping documentary on Bush during September 11th:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000z8p5/911-inside-the-presidents-war-room

    Agree. So much insight.

    Feel bad for giggling at one point during that documentary though.
    It's excellent and shows George W Bush as very far from the idiot he was portrayed as by many at the time.

    Also, was a big fan of Condie Rice then, and still am now.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    I was in my first proper job after graduating, and that day all the management were offsite at a planning event.
    After the first plane hit one of my friends got a call from his mum (like SE) saying what had just happened and so a group of us went into the main meeting room which had a tv and saw the second plane hit shortly afterwards.

    By contrast I was in my room packing up to go to uni.
    Sometimes reading these posts make me feel OLD.
    Sheer nonsense, Your Majesty.
    They certainly make me feel old, and actually how quite young to us oldies our colleagues on here are
    You ain't old, old bean. Are you going to call the world whippersnapper?

    South Wales beckons.
    I actually am quite enjoying reading colleagues recollection of that dreadful day

    For all our differences we are an excellent and unique discussion forum
    I'm missing a few of the old regulars though: Bluest Blue, Peter the Punter, Ave It and even MysticRose (though she was irritating). And @Barnesian hasn't posted for a while.
    I hope it does not mean that we need an obituary wall. At least one of us has made provision for his executors to notify us (I think I remember who, but won't risk it as it might be tactless if I get it wrong!).
    I think that's very thoughtful. I have on occasion PMd lapsed posters to urge them to at least post once in a while to let us know they are ok.
    I guess we could all leave a modest donation to PB in our wills. That would allow the editors to know when we've popped it and post a suitably gushing obit.

    "Benpointer was a stalwart poster of boring lefty stuff that frequently generated the response it deserved."
    I'd suggest drafting the obit yourself and making delivering it a condition of the bequest.
    Good idea! It's the only way I'll get a positive one 😂
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,610
    Bit of a car crash:

    Nicola Sturgeon stands by Scottish Greens in her government despite party's “extremist”views on Israel. @itvnews

    https://twitter.com/PeterAdamSmith/status/1436370074894483458?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sadly the covid situation in the uK is now getting substantially worse. Last 4 days of death figures 209, 191, 167, 147. Weve gone from the odd day over 100 deaths to averaging around 170 deaths per day. This with case numbers broadly flat. In other words the ratio of deaths to cases is rising substantially and it is still only early september. I would think is this continues a return to the may level of restrictions is likely

    It's rising, but it is not anywhere near mass restrictions level of justification, this chart of deaths demonstrating why.

    A better view of the recent situation.

    image

    Cases proceed hospitalisations which proceed deaths. So when cases stop rising as fast (or indeed fall), the ratio of cases to deaths rises.
    except cases hit 50000 in july and havent got past that peak. Whereas deaths have continued to rise steadily to new highs. Also hospitalisations are above the july peak despite lower cases
    Isn't that just a rather boring consequence of deaths lagging cases?

    The number I would fixate on is number in hospital, and in particular those on mechanical ventilators.

    If that is showing a sustained upward trend, then we need to get worried.
    It seems to have flattened off this week in my Trustat figures about a third of the winter peak. 20 or so on ICU or ECMO. This is despite our schools being back a fortnight.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 35,760

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    Rumour suggests it’ll now be restricted to the most vulnerable and the very oldies, at least this side of Xmas
  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Interesting. Obviously there will be more double jabbed deaths in the 60 to 80 category due to so few been unvaccinated in that age group but that stat means nothing by itself
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Twenty years ago

    Agent (whispering): "Mr President, sir, America is under attack"
    Bush (holding a children's book upside down): "I know"

    Was it really upside down? If so I share something in common with Bush: I can read a book that is upside down perfectly well (depending on the typeface used; some serif fonts are more difficult).

    My cousin can do it as well; my brother and sister cannot. Mrs J cannot. It's not something I've practiced, just something I can do for some reason.

    A real Zeroes skill.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9ewB6iUhAY
    My father taught himself to read as quickly upside down as normal. He used it in sales negotiations to read his opposite numbers position papers.
    I have never had to teach myself but for some reason I can read upside down quite easily.

    It has come in very handy in many business negotitations... especially as some people seem to assume it's impossible to read a page if it's not the right way round.
    Me too. I can also read text in a mirror.
    Of less use in negotiations though.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,221

    rcs1000 said:


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.

    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    Apart from those at the very beginning, most people had a 10-12 week gap between vaccinations. I had my secind at the end of May so it's three and a half months.

    I'm expecting the booster in early November but for the very elderly I expect Sajid Javid to announce the booster programme soon and make a big thing of it at the Conservative Party Conference - "the Conservatives - the Party that beat Covid" (or perhaps not).

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Twenty years ago

    Agent (whispering): "Mr President, sir, America is under attack"
    Bush (holding a children's book upside down): "I know"

    Was it really upside down? If so I share something in common with Bush: I can read a book that is upside down perfectly well (depending on the typeface used; some serif fonts are more difficult).

    My cousin can do it as well; my brother and sister cannot. Mrs J cannot. It's not something I've practiced, just something I can do for some reason.

    A real Zeroes skill.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9ewB6iUhAY
    My father taught himself to read as quickly upside down as normal. He used it in sales negotiations to read his opposite numbers position papers.
    I have never had to teach myself but for some reason I can read upside down quite easily.

    It has come in very handy in many business negotitations... especially as some people seem to assume it's impossible to read a page if it's not the right way round.
    Me too. I can also read text in a mirror.
    Of less use in negotiations though.
    Unless you have a mirror on the wall behind the opposition...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,686

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Counterfactual historians tend to look at 9/11 a bit like the assassination of Franz Ferdinand.

    One school is that it changed everything, another is it changed nothing.

    The former build a timeline around 9/11 not happening having a chain reaction through Europe, the Middle East and beyond fundamentally altering British and American politics. The latter argue something like 9/11 would have happened sooner or later given the build up of AQ in Afghanistan.

    In terms of 1914, it's one thing to build a world with no great wars (though plenty of little ones) in the 20th Century but that bumps up against the argument war had become inevitable in 1914 because too many important players saw it as a possible solution to seemingly intractable problems or unstoppable trends.

    In the very long term, I'm in the changed nothing camp.
    In the very long term, the sun burns the Earth to a crisp. Meanwhile, some events do change the course of history; US-led western interventionism (on the ground) in the Middle East dates from then, and (possibly) has just come to an end.
    It was a terrorist attack by a well-organised group with a charismatic leader funded by oil money in the Middle-East. In 20 years time, this will seem out of date and antiquated.

    The big challenge was (and is) the eclipse of the West by economically stronger competing authoritarian powers, and our capacity for self-immolation.

    Islamic terrorism is simply a terrifying (but ultimately irrelevant) distraction.
    One thing which will endure I feel is that it has reminded us that religion - and the identity it gives people - matters to quite a lot of people. That is something the West largely forgot and has had to learn - or relearn - the hard way. It is not simply that it can inspire terrorism but can lead others to reverse changes we would like to think of as inevitable and irreversible. See Texas and abortion, for instance.

    We should have learnt that change does not just go one way, that not everything is about economics and money, that identity matters and that hard-won rights can be reversed.

    There are roughly three forms of polity on offer in the world today:-

    1. Western liberal democracy
    2. Authoritarian powers - with little regard for democracy or liberalism.
    3. Authoritarian credal states which derive legitimacy / laws from religion.

    It is by no means a given that 1. will prevail or be seen as inherently more attractive than 2 or 3. 9/11 was not the start of it - the Ayatollah coming to power in Iran was probably more important - but it was a consequence of those changes. It said to the Western world: religion - ours - matters, as it did once to you. So you had better pay attention.

    And only this week a Taliban Minister said much the same - education isn't important but piousness is. We'd be fools to think that won't have an impact on us or that there aren't people in the West who share that view, even if sometimes the religion may be different.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sadly the covid situation in the uK is now getting substantially worse. Last 4 days of death figures 209, 191, 167, 147. Weve gone from the odd day over 100 deaths to averaging around 170 deaths per day. This with case numbers broadly flat. In other words the ratio of deaths to cases is rising substantially and it is still only early september. I would think is this continues a return to the may level of restrictions is likely

    It's rising, but it is not anywhere near mass restrictions level of justification, this chart of deaths demonstrating why.

    A better view of the recent situation.

    image

    Cases proceed hospitalisations which proceed deaths. So when cases stop rising as fast (or indeed fall), the ratio of cases to deaths rises.
    except cases hit 50000 in july and havent got past that peak. Whereas deaths have continued to rise steadily to new highs. Also hospitalisations are above the july peak despite lower cases
    Isn't that just a rather boring consequence of deaths lagging cases?

    The number I would fixate on is number in hospital, and in particular those on mechanical ventilators.

    If that is showing a sustained upward trend, then we need to get worried.
    It seems to have flattened off this week in my Trustat figures about a third of the winter peak. 20 or so on ICU or ECMO. This is despite our schools being back a fortnight.
    Sounds like good news.
  • IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    Rumour suggests it’ll now be restricted to the most vulnerable and the very oldies, at least this side of Xmas
    Tories sub 30 by Christmas.....
  • rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    The Joint Committee for Vacillation and Indecision lives up to its name again.

    Seriously, though, I wonder if its term of reference need amending to emphasize the need for *timely* advice in a pandemic. The "go slow and wait for evidence and consensus" strategy is sensible in normal times, but not now. At the moment it looks like several scientific committees of the type I know well, publishing delayed and hedged recommendations (often inconsistent, on closer examination) to paper over internal divisions. The chatter around the vote on the 12-15 age group, and halfway conclusion, was a strong signal that the committee is bickering.

    --AS
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,221

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,865
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Princess Diana's death was an odd one for me. I'd been clubbing in Cambridge, and got a taxi back in the early hours. The taxi driver told me that Princess Diana had been injured in a car crash. When I got back to my digs, I turned on the TV and (from memory) there was nothing about it on (*): it was annoying, and something that we wouldn't dream of in the modern 24-hour news cycle. I stayed up, and after a while it appeared on the BBC, saying she'd been injured. I guess at that stage they knew she'd died, and were just waiting for confirmation.

    People's reactions were very odd. I am generally a royalist, and whilst I thought it was sad, it didn't really affect me deeply. My then-GF's dad was German, and a vehement republican; he apparently cried his eyes out.

    (*) I've just checked, and the BBC News 24 channel started a couple of months after her death.

    That was the day I learnt I was pregnant with one of my children. I woke early, wondered why the World Service was doing a documentary about Diana, went to do the test and it was only later that I learnt about the accident. Much more interested in my news TBH.

    I found the whole candles and votive offerings that week a huge overreaction. It was as if Britain had rediscovered its inner Catholicism. Reminiscent of nothing so much as those shrines to the Madonna you see all over Southern Italy.
    I didn't feel it, thought the reaction OTT, but I think I can understand it. She was top royalty - a public figure of great standing - plus at the same time a young and glamorous, A* list modern world celebrity. So a JFK type event.
    The People's Princess, even. Almost as good a slogan as Get Brexit Done.
    That was peak Tony, no question.
    Actually true too. Diana had a common touch that other Royals just cannot match. The Royals are really tough on those who marry in and outshine them.
    Not necessarily. The Queen Mum outshone the family she married into. Difference is that she and her husband loved each other. Charles and Di didn't. If they had their different strengths would have complemented each other and they'd have made a formidable and supportive team.

    Philip too was probably more glamorous and intelligent than his in-laws and not apparently much liked by them or by courtiers. But he and HMQ had a strong bond.

    Also both understood that the institution mattered more than individuals. If that belief - and love - are missing, it must be very difficult for outsiders.

    Quite. You can't even go and vent a bitch and a moan about your other half with friends, for fear of it getting out, either. Whether inadvertently or not.
    Imagine that!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 20,686
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Princess Diana's death was an odd one for me. I'd been clubbing in Cambridge, and got a taxi back in the early hours. The taxi driver told me that Princess Diana had been injured in a car crash. When I got back to my digs, I turned on the TV and (from memory) there was nothing about it on (*): it was annoying, and something that we wouldn't dream of in the modern 24-hour news cycle. I stayed up, and after a while it appeared on the BBC, saying she'd been injured. I guess at that stage they knew she'd died, and were just waiting for confirmation.

    People's reactions were very odd. I am generally a royalist, and whilst I thought it was sad, it didn't really affect me deeply. My then-GF's dad was German, and a vehement republican; he apparently cried his eyes out.

    (*) I've just checked, and the BBC News 24 channel started a couple of months after her death.

    That was the day I learnt I was pregnant with one of my children. I woke early, wondered why the World Service was doing a documentary about Diana, went to do the test and it was only later that I learnt about the accident. Much more interested in my news TBH.

    I found the whole candles and votive offerings that week a huge overreaction. It was as if Britain had rediscovered its inner Catholicism. Reminiscent of nothing so much as those shrines to the Madonna you see all over Southern Italy.
    I didn't feel it, thought the reaction OTT, but I think I can understand it. She was top royalty - a public figure of great standing - plus at the same time a young and glamorous, A* list modern world celebrity. So a JFK type event.
    The People's Princess, even. Almost as good a slogan as Get Brexit Done.
    That was peak Tony, no question.
    Actually true too. Diana had a common touch that other Royals just cannot match. The Royals are really tough on those who marry in and outshine them.
    Not necessarily. The Queen Mum outshone the family she married into. Difference is that she and her husband loved each other. Charles and Di didn't. If they had their different strengths would have complemented each other and they'd have made a formidable and supportive team.

    Philip too was probably more glamorous and intelligent than his in-laws and not apparently much liked by them or by courtiers. But he and HMQ had a strong bond.

    Also both understood that the institution mattered more than individuals. If that belief - and love - are missing, it must be very difficult for outsiders.

    Quite. You can't even go and vent a bitch and a moan about your other half with friends, for fear of it getting out, either. Whether inadvertently or not.
    Imagine that!
    Yeah - and having to be polite to each other in front of the staff. The lack of privacy would be awful.
  • Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    Are criteria for hospital admission still being applied consistently, or would the marginal patient be more likely to get in now that peak demand has passed and there's some slack on the wards?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 538

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    To a point. I spent a number of my Saturday evenings most of last winter in a "works canteen" which we'd turned into a pub by any other name, apart from we only had bottled beer available. There was one near miss with the Plod, but we lived to tell the tale.
  • stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
    lots of people still wearing masks in supermarkets. This makes me think that the public would be quite receptive to further restrictions especially as most of those wearing masks are likely double jabbed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461

    For any who haven't seen it this is a gripping documentary on Bush during September 11th:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000z8p5/911-inside-the-presidents-war-room

    Agree. So much insight.

    Feel bad for giggling at one point during that documentary though.
    After the adviser took all his anti-anthrax drugs in one go?
  • stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
    lots of people still wearing masks in supermarkets. This makes me think that the public would be quite receptive to further restrictions especially as most of those wearing masks are likely double jabbed.
    Nah, there's no way I'm enduring another lockdown just to protect antivaxxers.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,477

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
    lots of people still wearing masks in supermarkets. This makes me think that the public would be quite receptive to further restrictions especially as most of those wearing masks are likely double jabbed.
    We did our shopping in Tesco this morning and I didn't see a single customer or employee without a mask, but we are in Wales.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 96,752
    edited September 10

    For any who haven't seen it this is a gripping documentary on Bush during September 11th:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000z8p5/911-inside-the-presidents-war-room

    Agree. So much insight.

    Feel bad for giggling at one point during that documentary though.
    After the adviser took all his anti-anthrax drugs in one go?
    Yup, well his reaction/honesty about it all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,093

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
    The JCVI is stuffed full of people that think it's morally wrong that the UK should be on 3rd doses before Africa has had its first jabs.
  • Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
    The JCVI is stuffed full of people that think it's morally wrong that the UK should be on 3rd doses before Africa has had its first jabs.
    This is where the government needs a pair (and I think took their eyes of the ball.)
  • theProletheProle Posts: 538

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
    lots of people still wearing masks in supermarkets. This makes me think that the public would be quite receptive to further restrictions especially as most of those wearing masks are likely double jabbed.
    It's tailing off very rapidly in my part of the world. A month ago, I would have guessed 75%+ were masked in my local Morrisons. I deliberately looked as I went round tonight (having discussed this very topic at work this afternoon), and it was under 10% masked.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    edited September 10
    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,865
    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.

    I would argue that is a result of the failure to properly study, and learn from, the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    Lessons learned appeared to be. We're number one! We were spot on right about absolutely everything ever. Everyone will copy us or they are doomed! Let's double down on all we have been doing. Let's do more of it, faster, and on a bigger scale, now there is no alternative to stop us.
    Meanwhile.The Chinese and Russians, to an extent, took a more profound and lengthy consideration of the situation.
  • By September 2001, I had just finished my PhD in Biochemistry at Imperial College, and had submitted the required three copies of my thesis at Senate House one week before 9/11 on 9/4. It took me six months to write up, not helped by me having started a post-doc in the same lab earlier in February.

    The night before 9/11, I went to Tower Records (as was) opposite Tottenham Court Road tube and bought a VHS (yes, it was a long time ago!!) copy of Alien Resurrection. I started watching the movie on the morning of 9/11, and got up to the bit where Dan Hedaya got his head ripped open by one of the aliens, before finally deciding to head into London to pick up a fourth copy of my thesis from the binders, for my own personal use.

    So I got to the lab around lunchtime, and showed off the thesis to my other co-workers - but soon after my supervisor came running saying "Did you know a plane just crashed into the World Trade Centre?". Naturally, my thesis had to take a back seat while we were all glued to the scenes in NYC on the lab computers!

    And then in the aftermath, I have to admit completely avoiding London Zone 1 to get from Ilford to Imperial, for many weeks, you know, "just in case". So for example, one of the "alternate" routes was going from Stratford to Acton on the North London Line, then bus to Kensington.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,380
    Farooq said:

    Twenty years ago

    Agent (whispering): "Mr President, sir, America is under attack"
    Bush (holding a children's book upside down): "I know"

    Bush behaved very impressively that day. Keeping his cool and finishing the story before leaving rather than panicking the kids. Sometimes it’s the little things that matter
  • Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?
    Covid-19.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sadly the covid situation in the uK is now getting substantially worse. Last 4 days of death figures 209, 191, 167, 147. Weve gone from the odd day over 100 deaths to averaging around 170 deaths per day. This with case numbers broadly flat. In other words the ratio of deaths to cases is rising substantially and it is still only early september. I would think is this continues a return to the may level of restrictions is likely

    It's rising, but it is not anywhere near mass restrictions level of justification, this chart of deaths demonstrating why.

    A better view of the recent situation.

    image

    Cases proceed hospitalisations which proceed deaths. So when cases stop rising as fast (or indeed fall), the ratio of cases to deaths rises.
    except cases hit 50000 in july and havent got past that peak. Whereas deaths have continued to rise steadily to new highs. Also hospitalisations are above the july peak despite lower cases
    Isn't that just a rather boring consequence of deaths lagging cases?

    The number I would fixate on is number in hospital, and in particular those on mechanical ventilators.

    If that is showing a sustained upward trend, then we need to get worried.
    It seems to have flattened off this week in my Trustat figures about a third of the winter peak. 20 or so on ICU or ECMO. This is despite our schools being back a fortnight.
    I must admit, I had expected a much worse uptick from schools returning. It's also worth noting that (except in Germany), most European countries are seeing cases fall, which is also pretty encouraging.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 10

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    Damn....you edited it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?
    Covid-19.
    Too quick - see my edit!
  • dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.

    I would argue that is a result of the failure to properly study, and learn from, the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    Lessons learned appeared to be. We're number one! We were spot on right about absolutely everything ever. Everyone will copy us or they are doomed! Let's double down on all we have been doing. Let's do more of it, faster, and on a bigger scale, now there is no alternative to stop us.
    Meanwhile.The Chinese and Russians, to an extent, took a more profound and lengthy consideration of the situation.
    its just the natural cycle. Countries get rich and powerful then start doing all sorts of stupid things. Unfortunately humans dont handle abundance very well
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sadly the covid situation in the uK is now getting substantially worse. Last 4 days of death figures 209, 191, 167, 147. Weve gone from the odd day over 100 deaths to averaging around 170 deaths per day. This with case numbers broadly flat. In other words the ratio of deaths to cases is rising substantially and it is still only early september. I would think is this continues a return to the may level of restrictions is likely

    It's rising, but it is not anywhere near mass restrictions level of justification, this chart of deaths demonstrating why.

    A better view of the recent situation.

    image

    Cases proceed hospitalisations which proceed deaths. So when cases stop rising as fast (or indeed fall), the ratio of cases to deaths rises.
    except cases hit 50000 in july and havent got past that peak. Whereas deaths have continued to rise steadily to new highs. Also hospitalisations are above the july peak despite lower cases
    Isn't that just a rather boring consequence of deaths lagging cases?

    The number I would fixate on is number in hospital, and in particular those on mechanical ventilators.

    If that is showing a sustained upward trend, then we need to get worried.
    no deaths do lag case but not by around 8 weeks which is the time since the july peak. Something else is going on
    Given cases don't seem to be spiraling out of control, and that most health services are reporting broadly flat numbers in hospital and on mechanical ventilation, I'm going with random noise.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    No pictures just text "Terrorists fly plane into building in US" so I pictured a cessna type plane flying into a 2 story Midwest farmhouse sort of building

    Sitting on a plane at Charles de Gaulle wondering why they had ampped up security and none of the TVs were working
    How funny, I was also in Paris that day. A colleague of mine said "you know what, I think we should take the Eurostar back". Which was just as well, because if we'd gone to CdG, we would have gotten stuck in Paris.
  • theProle said:

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
    lots of people still wearing masks in supermarkets. This makes me think that the public would be quite receptive to further restrictions especially as most of those wearing masks are likely double jabbed.
    It's tailing off very rapidly in my part of the world. A month ago, I would have guessed 75%+ were masked in my local Morrisons. I deliberately looked as I went round tonight (having discussed this very topic at work this afternoon), and it was under 10% masked.
    thats because in the evening not many oldies are about. Go in the morning for a truer picture
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,380
    dixiedean said:

    Apologies if this has been posted. But this really confirms the worst about today's pensioners. Millenials take a breath before reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/10/pensioners-governments-tax-triple-lock-pensions-rise-national-insurance

    Pretty depressing. But we don’t know if they were carefully curated by the guardian
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,477

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    Modern (1912–present)
    Artemisinin, Tu Youyou, Project 523, Dihydroartemisinin.
    Carbon aerogel: In 2013, scientists at Zhejiang University created a carbon aerogel weighing in at 0.16 mg/cc, breaking the record for the world's lightest substance.[615]
    Electronic cigarette: Hon Lik, a Chinese pharmacist, is credited with the invention of the modern electronic cigarette. In 2003, he came up with the idea of using a piezoelectric ultrasound-emitting element to vaporise a pressurized jet of liquid containing nicotine diluted in a propylene glycol solution. This design produces a smoke-like vapour that can be inhaled and provides a vehicle for nicotine delivery into the bloodstream via the lungs. He also proposed using propylene glycol to dilute nicotine and placing it in a disposable plastic cartridge which serves as a liquid reservoir and mouthpiece.[616]
    Non-invasive prenatal diagnostic testing for Down Syndrome: Previously, women underwent invasive testing such as amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling (CVS). This new maternal blood test has the potential to reduce the number of women referred for invasive testing for Down syndrome by 98 percent. Developed by Chinese researchers in Hong Kong in 2008, this is hailed as a breakthrough.[617]
    Passenger drone: The world's first passenger drone, a drone capable of carrying human cargo, Ehang 184 was unveiled at the Computer Electronics Show (CES) 2016 by Chinese entrepreneurs.[618][619]
    Synthetic bovine insulin: In 1965, Chinese scientists synthesized bovine insulin, with the "same crystalline form and biological activities as natural insulin."[620][621] The project began in 1958, and is considered one of the "first proteins ever synthesized in vitro."[622]
    Stem cell educator therapy: Chinese and US researchers have produced remarkable results for this new treatment of obtaining stem cells from human cord blood to "re-educate" misbehaving immune cells. This result was published in the open-access journal BMC Medicine in January 2012, and offers hope for Type 1 diabetics and potentially may also be used to treat other auto-immune diseases if the approach lives up to early promise.[623][624]

    The above is according to Wikipedia.

    Just info, no judgement.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,865

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    The e cigarette.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    edited September 10

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    Are criteria for hospital admission still being applied consistently, or would the marginal patient be more likely to get in now that peak demand has passed and there's some slack on the wards?
    There is no slack on the wards. My hospital has had to declare an internal critical incident this week. On Monday we had patients waiting up to 6 hours to get out of the ambulance, and today was nearly as bad in terms of casualty waits. At lunchtime there were 55 patients in the Emergency Dept who were over 4 hour waiters, and a handful who had been there over 24. It is horrorshow, and there is no capacity for getting down the waiting lists.
  • dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.

    I would argue that is a result of the failure to properly study, and learn from, the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    Lessons learned appeared to be. We're number one! We were spot on right about absolutely everything ever. Everyone will copy us or they are doomed! Let's double down on all we have been doing. Let's do more of it, faster, and on a bigger scale, now there is no alternative to stop us.
    Meanwhile.The Chinese and Russians, to an extent, took a more profound and lengthy consideration of the situation.
    the fiscal and monetary policies of the us are absolutely insane...as they are in the uk. Any rise in interest rates to more normal levels will completely wrteck our economies
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    They're not going to do that unless:

    Cases spiral out of control
    &
    Hospitalizations spiral out of control

    There is no evidence of either of those things right now. And given that schools have now gone back, and that the number of people without any covid antibodies diminishes every day, it seems unlikely that they will.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    Charles said:

    Farooq said:

    Twenty years ago

    Agent (whispering): "Mr President, sir, America is under attack"
    Bush (holding a children's book upside down): "I know"

    Bush behaved very impressively that day. Keeping his cool and finishing the story before leaving rather than panicking the kids. Sometimes it’s the little things that matter
    It's a view. For what it's worth I think he does come out of that documentary fairly well.

    But on the point you raise, Bush was totally wrong to continue to sit in front of that class once he was briefed about the second plane. He should have immediately held up his hand, politely apologised for interrupting the lesson, and said something very important had come up and they would have to excuse him.

    Secondly, it was unconscionable to use his pre-planned speech to the school, children included, to issue his first response. He should have clear the decks of all but the press and maybe the school governors and head-teacher.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,245
    edited September 10

    Farooq said:

    Twenty years ago

    Agent (whispering): "Mr President, sir, America is under attack"
    Bush (holding a children's book upside down): "I know"

    Was it really upside down? If so I share something in common with Bush: I can read a book that is upside down perfectly well (depending on the typeface used; some serif fonts are more difficult).

    My cousin can do it as well; my brother and sister cannot. Mrs J cannot. It's not something I've practiced, just something I can do for some reason.

    A real Zeroes skill.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9ewB6iUhAY
    Years ago I was sitting across a table from a date and wrote with my left hand (I'm right-handed) in mirror image that I liked her. Actually it was so abstracted from my ordinary writing that I found it easy, but not fast. The upshot? She took the initiative.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,380

    Farooq said:

    Twenty years ago

    Agent (whispering): "Mr President, sir, America is under attack"
    Bush (holding a children's book upside down): "I know"

    Was it really upside down? If so I share something in common with Bush: I can read a book that is upside down perfectly well (depending on the typeface used; some serif fonts are more difficult).

    My cousin can do it as well; my brother and sister cannot. Mrs J cannot. It's not something I've practiced, just something I can do for some reason.

    A real Zeroes skill.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9ewB6iUhAY
    It’s a fake

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bush-upside-book/
  • rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    They're not going to do that unless:

    Cases spiral out of control
    &
    Hospitalizations spiral out of control

    There is no evidence of either of those things right now. And given that schools have now gone back, and that the number of people without any covid antibodies diminishes every day, it seems unlikely that they will.
    i agree now but its still only early september. Lets see where we are mid to late october. We are starting from a much higher base level of cases and deaths than last year
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 10
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    The e cigarette.
    A billion people and all i got was this lousy vape....

    More seriously, they are advancing science in many areas. The one big flaw in a Chinese big state control is that being free wheeling going against the grain and suggesting completely whacky ideas isn't really encouraged....and often this is where big break throughs come from.

    If you are scared of reporting covid up the chain and those that try get punished, suggesting something that is conventional wisdom is wrong probably isn't going to get you far.

    Where as many Americans feel its the cool thing to do...fight the system, drop out of college...work on your idea in the garage....
  • Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    Why not? :lol:
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    Are criteria for hospital admission still being applied consistently, or would the marginal patient be more likely to get in now that peak demand has passed and there's some slack on the wards?
    There is no slack on the wards. My hospital has had to declare an internal critical incident this week. On Monday we had patients waiting up to 6 hours to get out of the ambulance, and today was nearly as bad in terms of casualty waits. At lunchtime there were 55 patients in the Emergency Dept who were over 4 hour waiters, and a handful who had been there over 24. It is horrorshow, and there is no capacity for getting down the waiting lists.
    Thanks for the info.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 14,865

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    Does inventing "a way of displacing and replacing the dominant superpower without need of war, domestic democracy or liberalisation" count?
    'Cos that one would be pretty impressive.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,477
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Apologies if this has been posted. But this really confirms the worst about today's pensioners. Millenials take a breath before reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/10/pensioners-governments-tax-triple-lock-pensions-rise-national-insurance

    Pretty depressing. But we don’t know if they were carefully curated by the guardian
    Don't forget, the article says 10% of pensioners. I'm sure the vast majority of pensioners will not be earning anything to levy NI on. And a fair number of those rely heavily on the Triple lock, as they don't have access to overtime, or increasing salaries to pay for the ever increasing energy and council tax bills.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    That's just one aspect of it but if pubs and restaurants are your barometer of "normal life", fine.

    I look at other things - mask wearing, social distancing, working from home etc.
    lots of people still wearing masks in supermarkets. This makes me think that the public would be quite receptive to further restrictions especially as most of those wearing masks are likely double jabbed.
    Nah, there's no way I'm enduring another lockdown just to protect antivaxxers.
    Los Angeles has masks in supermarkets. Masks in supermarkets (and on public transport) is not a lockdown.

    A lockdown is when restaurants, bars and the like are closed and there are restrictions on people meeting.
  • Today is the end of my stint as editor of PB and I was thinking it had been a quiet stint.

    Prince Andrew has been served with the legal papers for a lawsuit in which he is accused of sexual abuse, according to a court document.

    Lawyers representing Virginia Giuffre, who is suing the Duke of York, say in the document that the civil lawsuit was handed to a Metropolitan Police officer on duty at the main gates of the The Royal Lodge, Windsor Great Park, on 27 August at 9.30am.

    Sources close to the prince say he has not been served the papers in person.

    The source couldn't confirm if security had received the papers.


    https://news.sky.com/story/prince-andrew-lawyers-for-woman-suing-duke-of-york-claim-he-was-served-with-legal-papers-12404352
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 89,322
    jonny83 said:

    I remember coming home from College and finding my family glued to the TV in the living room watching it all unfold. I remember talking to my dad who came in shortly after and one of the first things we said was it was Al-Qaeda. We remembered the USS Cole attack and Bin Laden promising bigger things on the way.

    It's an event that changed the world, much like Pearl Harbor. Worse in some ways as it wasn't a state that attacked but a terrorist group that showed it could attack the most powerful nation on Earth so easily.

    Are we in a better position now 20 years later? I would argue not really, the ingredients are there for the likes of ISIS and Al-Qaeda to reform and become strong again back in Afghanistan. Still plenty of other radical islamic terrorist groups out there that want to launch attacks on the West.

    I think it highly likely in my lifetime there will be another major attack in the UK or in the West, maybe not on the scale of a 9/11 again but coordinated well planned and devastating attacks to cause chaos and terror.

    The Head of MI5 announced today that they have foiled 31 late stage terror plots in the last 4 years, so the threat is very much real:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58512901

    Certainly the war on terror has not ended whatever Biden may have said.

    As you say the intelligence services are still fighting it every week to identify and stop potential jihadi terrorist attacks on western cities.

    If Al Qaeda or IS manage to plan a successful terrorist attack from Afghanistan or any other state then of course US and western special forces would have to be sent back there to remove the threat, supported by drones and airstrikes
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    The e cigarette.
    TikTok
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,380

    dixiedean said:

    Apologies if this has been posted. But this really confirms the worst about today's pensioners. Millenials take a breath before reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/10/pensioners-governments-tax-triple-lock-pensions-rise-national-insurance

    As a Guardian reader and retiree I find that really embarrassing. I struggle to believe most retired Guardian readers would echo the thoughts of the four quoted.

    It's almost as if the journalist is trying too hard to deliver the Guardian's 'fuck the government' message.

    As I said on here a few days ago, the extra tax should have been raised by extending NI to all income, including pensions and earnings for the over 65s. That would have hurt me personally but would be fairer than piling more tax on those in employment.
    The issue is that pensioners have fewer options to increase their income than people of working age. So if a tax change pushes them into poverty it’s much harder to get out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 10
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    The e cigarette.
    TikTok
    That is just Chinese clone of Vine....albeit with better but nothing revolutionary AI.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Apologies if this has been posted. But this really confirms the worst about today's pensioners. Millenials take a breath before reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/10/pensioners-governments-tax-triple-lock-pensions-rise-national-insurance

    Pretty depressing. But we don’t know if they were carefully curated by the guardian
    Yes we do.

    They were carefully curated by the Guardian.

    Nuance doesn't sell papers (or bring in clicks, shares and other engagement).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    "Physician, heal thyself" has proven to be out of reach for Foxy, so he will have to haunt PB literally rather than figuratively from now on.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 538

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
    The more I read on jabbing the kids, the less I think it's a good idea.
    It's marginally beneficial to the actual kids vs catching disease.
    For the about 50% of kids who have already got Covid antibodies, it's a clear net negative (they get the side effect risks whilst gaining little or no extra immunity). From this, it may well be overall net negative for kids as a group
    James Ward's modelling posted the other night (so far his modelling seems to have outperformed most of the others) seemed to find that the societal benefits in terms of reduced hospitalisations/deaths over this winter from jabbing kids were pretty small.

    His modelling also seems to show that booster campaigns aren't necessarily the big wins you might expect either - in particular IIRC if you go too early, you can actually end up making matters worse. This is rather counterintuitive, I think as I understand it, it's to do with the booster effect dying off in the middle of your winter case peak making it a really massive peak, when just accepting a steady rate of reinfection all winter smooths the peak out, and makes the total area under the graph smaller. I think this is partly because having the vaccine then mild covid gives much better long term immunity that the vaccine + booster.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
    The more I read on jabbing the kids, the less I think it's a good idea.
    It's marginally beneficial to the actual kids vs catching disease.
    For the about 50% of kids who have already got Covid antibodies, it's a clear net negative (they get the side effect risks whilst gaining little or no extra immunity). From this, it may well be overall net negative for kids as a group
    James Ward's modelling posted the other night (so far his modelling seems to have outperformed most of the others) seemed to find that the societal benefits in terms of reduced hospitalisations/deaths over this winter from jabbing kids were pretty small.

    His modelling also seems to show that booster campaigns aren't necessarily the big wins you might expect either - in particular IIRC if you go too early, you can actually end up making matters worse. This is rather counterintuitive, I think as I understand it, it's to do with the booster effect dying off in the middle of your winter case peak making it a really massive peak, when just accepting a steady rate of reinfection all winter smooths the peak out, and makes the total area under the graph smaller. I think this is partly because having the vaccine then mild covid gives much better long term immunity that the vaccine + booster.
    Re no extra immunity, that's simply not true - infection plus vaccine is by far the most efficient way of preventing covid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    They're not going to do that unless:

    Cases spiral out of control
    &
    Hospitalizations spiral out of control

    There is no evidence of either of those things right now. And given that schools have now gone back, and that the number of people without any covid antibodies diminishes every day, it seems unlikely that they will.
    i agree now but its still only early september. Lets see where we are mid to late october. We are starting from a much higher base level of cases and deaths than last year
    And we are also starting at a much, much higher level of antibody prevalence.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 25,873
    "Josias Jessop hasn't died. He's just gone for a long walk in Heaven."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,380
    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    I was in my first proper job after graduating, and that day all the management were offsite at a planning event.
    After the first plane hit one of my friends got a call from his mum (like SE) saying what had just happened and so a group of us went into the main meeting room which had a tv and saw the second plane hit shortly afterwards.

    By contrast I was in my room packing up to go to uni.
    Sometimes reading these posts make me feel OLD.
    Sheer nonsense, Your Majesty.
    They certainly make me feel old, and actually how quite young to us oldies our colleagues on here are
    You ain't old, old bean. Are you going to call the world whippersnapper?

    South Wales beckons.
    I actually am quite enjoying reading colleagues recollection of that dreadful day

    For all our differences we are an excellent and unique discussion forum
    I'm missing a few of the old regulars though: Bluest Blue, Peter the Punter, Ave It and even MysticRose (though she was irritating). And @Barnesian hasn't posted for a while.
    I hope it does not mean that we need an obituary wall. At least one of us has made provision for his executors to notify us (I think I remember who, but won't risk it as it might be tactless if I get it wrong!).
    I think that's very thoughtful. I have on occasion PMd lapsed posters to urge them to at least post once in a while to let us know they are ok.
    I guess we could all leave a modest donation to PB in our wills. That would allow the editors to know when we've popped it and post a suitably gushing obit.

    "Benpointer was a stalwart poster of boring lefty stuff that frequently generated the response it deserved."
    I'd suggest drafting the obit yourself and making delivering it a condition of the bequest.
    My mother says one of the weirdest experiences of her life was going round the Times as a teenager and being shown a draft of her father’s obituary
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,951
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Apologies if this has been posted. But this really confirms the worst about today's pensioners. Millenials take a breath before reading.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/10/pensioners-governments-tax-triple-lock-pensions-rise-national-insurance

    As a Guardian reader and retiree I find that really embarrassing. I struggle to believe most retired Guardian readers would echo the thoughts of the four quoted.

    It's almost as if the journalist is trying too hard to deliver the Guardian's 'fuck the government' message.

    As I said on here a few days ago, the extra tax should have been raised by extending NI to all income, including pensions and earnings for the over 65s. That would have hurt me personally but would be fairer than piling more tax on those in employment.
    The issue is that pensioners have fewer options to increase their income than people of working age. So if a tax change pushes them into poverty it’s much harder to get out.
    Surely most pensioners have far more spare time available for working. Just look at PB.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,266
    That Guardian piece on pensioners demonstrates the problem. Really, the Guardian ought to say these views are pretty unappealing, but they won’t.

    PB really is different when it comes to this issue.
  • Today is the end of my stint as editor of PB and I was thinking it had been a quiet stint.

    Prince Andrew has been served with the legal papers for a lawsuit in which he is accused of sexual abuse, according to a court document.

    Lawyers representing Virginia Giuffre, who is suing the Duke of York, say in the document that the civil lawsuit was handed to a Metropolitan Police officer on duty at the main gates of the The Royal Lodge, Windsor Great Park, on 27 August at 9.30am.

    Sources close to the prince say he has not been served the papers in person.

    The source couldn't confirm if security had received the papers.


    https://news.sky.com/story/prince-andrew-lawyers-for-woman-suing-duke-of-york-claim-he-was-served-with-legal-papers-12404352

    I presume they didn't serve them personally as he was in Woking Pizza Express at the time
    ...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    I had a visiting Doctor in my clinic from Myanmar. First time she had been to the outside world. My pager told me that a plane had crashed into the WTC. 10 minutes later it buzzed again for the second tower. The towers had fallen by the time I finished my clinic, and got home to watch the news with Mrs Foxy.

    My parents were on holiday in Broome, Western Australia, on a tour of Oz. All the planes were grounded, but they got one of the last hire cars and drove to Perth, which was a 2 day drive. They were stuck there before flying home.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    edited September 10

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    Why not? :lol:
    a) because it's not proven they invented it and
    b) because it's not a 'significant technological invention'.

    I think I'd possibly allow the e-bike at a stretch (not the e-cigarette, who gives a f*ck about that?). The e-bike as we know it today was largely 'invented' in Japan but China has wothout doubt led the world development of it.

    But really, China is not leading the world in technological advances the way that the previous dominant superpowers first Britain, then America (and to a degree the Soviet union, in space) did.
  • rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
    The more I read on jabbing the kids, the less I think it's a good idea.
    It's marginally beneficial to the actual kids vs catching disease.
    For the about 50% of kids who have already got Covid antibodies, it's a clear net negative (they get the side effect risks whilst gaining little or no extra immunity). From this, it may well be overall net negative for kids as a group
    James Ward's modelling posted the other night (so far his modelling seems to have outperformed most of the others) seemed to find that the societal benefits in terms of reduced hospitalisations/deaths over this winter from jabbing kids were pretty small.

    His modelling also seems to show that booster campaigns aren't necessarily the big wins you might expect either - in particular IIRC if you go too early, you can actually end up making matters worse. This is rather counterintuitive, I think as I understand it, it's to do with the booster effect dying off in the middle of your winter case peak making it a really massive peak, when just accepting a steady rate of reinfection all winter smooths the peak out, and makes the total area under the graph smaller. I think this is partly because having the vaccine then mild covid gives much better long term immunity that the vaccine + booster.
    Re no extra immunity, that's simply not true - infection plus vaccine is by far the most efficient way of preventing covid.
    well if the argument is we vaccinate kids to protect antivaxxers it seems a nonsense argument to me...
  • The police in this country is populated with a disturbing number of psychopaths.

    CCTV captured a little boy with severe autism trying to crawl away in terror as a police officer launches a savage assault.

    As the recording begins the boy, aged 10, is on the floor of a school corridor, when former Merseyside Police PC Christopher Cruise, 57, raises his leg threateningly as if he is going to launch a kick.

    The boy attempts to crawl through a door before Cruise reaches down, grabs him by the hood of his coat and drags him across the corridor while the boy's legs trail behind him.

    The child was left with injuries to his knee following the attack.

    Cruise, a former school liaison officer, was convicted of assault against the boy at Crewe Magistrates' Court - a conviction upheld by a judge at Chester Crown Court following an unsuccessful appeal.

    The incident took place in January 2020, at a special educational needs school in the Liverpool area.

    Cruise retired before the force's disciplinary process concluded, but at a hearing last month Cruise was found guilty of gross misconduct and would have been sacked if he remained on the payroll.

    That hearing was told that after the incident Cruise walked into a classroom and asked the children if they could hear the victim crying.

    He then pointed at one of the children and said: “You’re next”.

    A teacher at the school also told officers he felt Cruise was trying to intimidate him to prevent him reporting the assault during a conversation later the same day.

    After being found guilty by magistrates, Cruise, part of the force's Safer Schools unit, was fined £800 and ordered to pay £100 in compensation, as well as £500 in prosecution costs and an £85 victim surcharge.

    His appeal landed him with a further £1,620 bill in court costs.

    A relative of the child, who did not want to be named, told the ECHO: "I think he should have been put in prison.


    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/boy-10-recoils-terror-police-21512215?_ga=2.37148256.1576846249.1631174279-1068233410.1621073320
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Anyway whatever we think on here its not our decision on restrictions anyway. We have to look at what the govt is likely to do

    Strangely, it's not really up to the Government either any more. It's a question of what people are willing to accept.

    In lieu of any kind of enforcement, most current restrictions are meaningless.
    if pubs are shut and restaurants people have no choice in the matter. Doesnt matter what they think
    They're not going to do that unless:

    Cases spiral out of control
    &
    Hospitalizations spiral out of control

    There is no evidence of either of those things right now. And given that schools have now gone back, and that the number of people without any covid antibodies diminishes every day, it seems unlikely that they will.
    i agree now but its still only early september. Lets see where we are mid to late october. We are starting from a much higher base level of cases and deaths than last year
    And we are also starting at a much, much higher level of antibody prevalence.
    well much of that is based on the vaccines obviously....lets see what happens in the next couple of months
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    edited September 10
    tlg86 said:

    That Guardian piece on pensioners demonstrates the problem. Really, the Guardian ought to say these views are pretty unappealing, but they won’t.

    PB really is different when it comes to this issue.

    If the article appears in the paper I would expect a number of critical letters to be sent in and, in fairness, to be published.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,930
    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    also if you look at the data quite a lot of deaths in the 60 to 79 category. i doubt all these are at deaths door and given vaccine uptake in that age group its highly unlikely they are all antivaxxers

    Again Ed Conway posted the data....it is very low among vaxxed in this age group....death are dominated by antivaxxers.

    The point is with delta, if you are unvaxxed just a matter of time until you get covid...whuch drives up hospitalisations...which drives up deaths.

    Now there are break through cases among vaccinated, and over 80s group who see break throughs that is dicey (although far better than without being vaxxed)...but we don't know how much that is due to those people already been very sickly.
    Perhaps. In the over 80's there is 3 times the IFR in the unvaxxed, but because 90% are vaxxed, the absolute numbers may well be equal. I am quite glad to see the rate for my age down to 0.1%.


    It does rather suggest that booster shots for oldies it's probably a good idea.
    Another week has passed without any decision...looks at watch...
    That and the failure to jab kids in the summer are such avoidable blunders.

    We have oodles of vaccines, it makes no sense.
    The more I read on jabbing the kids, the less I think it's a good idea.
    It's marginally beneficial to the actual kids vs catching disease.
    For the about 50% of kids who have already got Covid antibodies, it's a clear net negative (they get the side effect risks whilst gaining little or no extra immunity). From this, it may well be overall net negative for kids as a group
    James Ward's modelling posted the other night (so far his modelling seems to have outperformed most of the others) seemed to find that the societal benefits in terms of reduced hospitalisations/deaths over this winter from jabbing kids were pretty small.

    His modelling also seems to show that booster campaigns aren't necessarily the big wins you might expect either - in particular IIRC if you go too early, you can actually end up making matters worse. This is rather counterintuitive, I think as I understand it, it's to do with the booster effect dying off in the middle of your winter case peak making it a really massive peak, when just accepting a steady rate of reinfection all winter smooths the peak out, and makes the total area under the graph smaller. I think this is partly because having the vaccine then mild covid gives much better long term immunity that the vaccine + booster.
    Re no extra immunity, that's simply not true - infection plus vaccine is by far the most efficient way of preventing covid.
    Indeed if like Mrs Foxy you have had it, and also double vaxxed, you may be super immune even to new varieties.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-infection-superhuman-immunity-b1916202.html?amp
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    Stocky said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    I was in my first proper job after graduating, and that day all the management were offsite at a planning event.
    After the first plane hit one of my friends got a call from his mum (like SE) saying what had just happened and so a group of us went into the main meeting room which had a tv and saw the second plane hit shortly afterwards.

    By contrast I was in my room packing up to go to uni.
    Sometimes reading these posts make me feel OLD.
    Sheer nonsense, Your Majesty.
    They certainly make me feel old, and actually how quite young to us oldies our colleagues on here are
    You ain't old, old bean. Are you going to call the world whippersnapper?

    South Wales beckons.
    I actually am quite enjoying reading colleagues recollection of that dreadful day

    For all our differences we are an excellent and unique discussion forum
    I'm missing a few of the old regulars though: Bluest Blue, Peter the Punter, Ave It and even MysticRose (though she was irritating). And @Barnesian hasn't posted for a while.
    I hope it does not mean that we need an obituary wall. At least one of us has made provision for his executors to notify us (I think I remember who, but won't risk it as it might be tactless if I get it wrong!).
    I think that's very thoughtful. I have on occasion PMd lapsed posters to urge them to at least post once in a while to let us know they are ok.
    I guess we could all leave a modest donation to PB in our wills. That would allow the editors to know when we've popped it and post a suitably gushing obit.

    "Benpointer was a stalwart poster of boring lefty stuff that frequently generated the response it deserved."
    I'd suggest drafting the obit yourself and making delivering it a condition of the bequest.
    My mother says one of the weirdest experiences of her life was going round the Times as a teenager and being shown a draft of her father’s obituary
    More than slightly insensitive of whoever was showing her round.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 89,322

    Today is the end of my stint as editor of PB and I was thinking it had been a quiet stint.

    Prince Andrew has been served with the legal papers for a lawsuit in which he is accused of sexual abuse, according to a court document.

    Lawyers representing Virginia Giuffre, who is suing the Duke of York, say in the document that the civil lawsuit was handed to a Metropolitan Police officer on duty at the main gates of the The Royal Lodge, Windsor Great Park, on 27 August at 9.30am.

    Sources close to the prince say he has not been served the papers in person.

    The source couldn't confirm if security had received the papers.


    https://news.sky.com/story/prince-andrew-lawyers-for-woman-suing-duke-of-york-claim-he-was-served-with-legal-papers-12404352

    Well until they send Anne Sacoolas over here they are not getting Prince Andrew
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,643
    edited September 10

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    Why not? :lol:
    a) because it's not proven they invented it and
    b) because it's not a 'significant technological invention'.

    I think I'd possibly allow the e-bike at a stretch (not the e-cigarette, who gives a f*ck about that?). The e-bike as we know it today was largely 'invented' in Japan but China has wothout doubt led the world development of it.

    But really, China is not leading the world in technological advances the way that the previous dominant superpowers first Britain, then America (and to a degree the Soviet union, in space) did.
    To be fair, China is still rising, they are moving through the sweat shop of the world, to slowly becoming dominant producer of lots of things that they personally have made the advances, even if not having had the original idea.

    One thing that I find interesting, when covid started i remember watching an interview with a leading South Korean scientist. And they asked him, vaccines and medicines for it. South Korea is well ahead on tech for testing and surveillance, experience with SARs, how likely South Korea comes up with anything.

    The answer was nearly zero, and not because government haven't invested widely in this sector. We just struggling to build the capabilities to come up with novel research.

    It will.be Europe or the US.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,967

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    The e cigarette.
    A billion people and all i got was this lousy vape....

    More seriously, they are advancing science in many areas. The one big flaw in a Chinese big state control is that being free wheeling going against the grain and suggesting completely whacky ideas isn't really encouraged....and often this is where big break throughs come from.

    If you are scared of reporting covid up the chain and those that try get punished, suggesting something that is conventional wisdom is wrong probably isn't going to get you far.

    Where as many Americans feel its the cool thing to do...fight the system, drop out of college...work on your idea in the garage....
    There are lots of really clever Chinese scientists. But, the very best -- which in practice are the ones that matter -- prefer to have jobs in the great Western research universities rather than Tsinghua or Shanghai.

    Not because of money, but because of intellectual freedom.

    For sure, Chinese science has advanced rapidly. But they won't overtake the West providing the West remains open & accessible to the best researchers, wherever they are from.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,461
    Foxy said:

    "Physician, heal thyself" has proven to be out of reach for Foxy, so he will have to haunt PB literally rather than figuratively from now on.

    I think you should have qualified that as a draft self-obit... I'd hate for anyone to get the wrong idea!
  • dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    The legacy of 9/11 is the permanent eclipse of America. It was completely dominant in 2001, now it is approaching a failed state at war with itself, where a coup attempt is no bar to being a leading candidate for the presidency.


    Hard to disagree with this. Which is the next top superpower though?

    China is the obvious candidate but I was reflecting on this the other day. Surely the ability to invent and develop new technologies will be a big factor in deciding power structures in the years ahead.

    Can anyone think of a single significant technological invention to come out of China in the last few hundred years?

    Edit: I'm not allowing "covid-19" as an answer.
    The e cigarette.
    A billion people and all i got was this lousy vape....

    More seriously, they are advancing science in many areas. The one big flaw in a Chinese big state control is that being free wheeling going against the grain and suggesting completely whacky ideas isn't really encouraged....and often this is where big break throughs come from.

    If you are scared of reporting covid up the chain and those that try get punished, suggesting something that is conventional wisdom is wrong probably isn't going to get you far.

    Where as many Americans feel its the cool thing to do...fight the system, drop out of college...work on your idea in the garage....
    Maybe in tech. Much much harder to fight the 'man' in the pure sciences. Especially as he might well be on the funding committee....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,195
    Cyclefree said:

    Stocky said:

    Carnyx said:

    Stocky said:

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tres said:

    I was in my first proper job after graduating, and that day all the management were offsite at a planning event.
    After the first plane hit one of my friends got a call from his mum (like SE) saying what had just happened and so a group of us went into the main meeting room which had a tv and saw the second plane hit shortly afterwards.

    By contrast I was in my room packing up to go to uni.
    Sometimes reading these posts make me feel OLD.
    Sheer nonsense, Your Majesty.
    They certainly make me feel old, and actually how quite young to us oldies our colleagues on here are
    You ain't old, old bean. Are you going to call the world whippersnapper?

    South Wales beckons.
    I actually am quite enjoying reading colleagues recollection of that dreadful day

    For all our differences we are an excellent and unique discussion forum
    I'm missing a few of the old regulars though: Bluest Blue, Peter the Punter, Ave It and even MysticRose (though she was irritating). And @Barnesian hasn't posted for a while.
    I hope it does not mean that we need an obituary wall. At least one of us has made provision for his executors to notify us (I think I remember who, but won't risk it as it might be tactless if I get it wrong!).
    I think that's very thoughtful. I have on occasion PMd lapsed posters to urge them to at least post once in a while to let us know they are ok.
    I guess we could all leave a modest donation to PB in our wills. That would allow the editors to know when we've popped it and post a suitably gushing obit.

    "Benpointer was a stalwart poster of boring lefty stuff that frequently generated the response it deserved."
    "On this sad occasion Cyclefree will no longer have the last word. (Or in her case, the last thousand words.) And by the way she told me to tell you that. One of our bossier and more opinionated posters."
    Nick reports that 3 out of 4 fiends on his email list will be voting Labour. He has donated the 'r' to PB as he no longer requires it.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 587
    edited September 10
    On 9/11 - I imagine we were some of the last people in Europe to find out about it as my wife & I were on our honeymoon at the time & were halfway up a mountain in southern Spain. As we were staying overnight at a mountain refuge which had no outside communications whatsoever on the day inquestion - no radio, no phone line, no TV - (In an emergency I think they drove a landy up the dirt track over the ridgeline so they could radio for help) we heard absolutely nothing about the attacks at all. We topped out the next morning & it wasn’t until we returned to our holiday cottage in the evening that the proprietor came rushing out to ask if we’d heard the news that we even knew anything had happened.

    It took us a long time to unravel the chronology of what had happened the previous day, as the news services (understandably) assumed that everyone knew the basics & they were just leading every news bulletin with shots of the towers collapsing.
This discussion has been closed.