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Invincible Boris Johnson’s proposals appear to be popular – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 6 in General
Invincible Boris Johnson’s proposals appear to be popular – politicalbetting.com

Boris Johnson is in “invincible mode” and will push through a tax rise to fund social care despite “considerable” opposition within his cabinet https://t.co/abB51xwn2D

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • I think I deserve praise for my restraint in not making a gag about Boris Johnson and seamen (sic).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    The PM is invincible in the same way the Titanic was unsinkable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 42,963
    I will be very surprised if this NI plan isn't ditched by 5pm tonight and the whole care crisis is once again kicked into the long grass.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    Of course he's invincible. 80 seat majority, people adore him, not a few on here.

    Those erstwhile BJ fans have no cause to complain. All is good with His master plan.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 945
    That upcoming 3% pay rise for NHS workers isn't looking so good now if NI is going up to help pay for it.

    The hand giveth, the hand taketh away...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 33,746

    I will be very surprised if this NI plan isn't ditched by 5pm tonight and the whole care crisis is once again kicked into the long grass.

    You flatter the donkeys by saying they had a plan. Took them 2 years to try and pretend that was their plan.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,153
    Hmmm.... Remember when May was in invincible mode and thought up the 'Dementia Tax'?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,327
    fpt

    Whatever "solution" is proposed for social care it will be a patch-up with sticky plaster.
    The basic issue is obviously a matter of social insurance.

    The lifetime costs of adult social care for older people varies considerably ...
    In 2010 the Dilnot Commission estimated 50 per cent of people aged 65 and over will spend up to £20,000 on care costs and that 10 per cent would face costs of more than £100,000.
    https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/audio-video/key-facts-figures-adult-social-care
    These are now clear underestimates, but they give an idea of the scale.

    In 2019/20, 838,530 adults received publicly funded long-term social care, primarily in care/nursing homes or in their own homes. In addition, there were 231,295 episodes of short-term care provided.
    and
    The National Audit Office has estimated that in 2016/17 people spent £10.9 billion on privately purchased social care.

    Many people who receive publicly funded social care are also expected to contribute towards it from their income. In 2019/20 a total of £3.1 billion was spent on these fees and charges.
    ibid.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816
    It is no surprise that some people think it is all free. The young by and large have better things to think about, good for them, and for quite a few people it actually is free. Only politics nerds will think much more about it unless they have to.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    Selebian said:

    Hmmm.... Remember when May was in invincible mode and thought up the 'Dementia Tax'?

    For many "National Insurance" =/= tax. Hence I don't believe it will be as corrosively spun in PR terms.

    Insurance sounds positively cuddly. Insurance, you say? Well that's great - especially now you can't be too careful, etc...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355
    jonny83 said:

    That upcoming 3% pay rise for NHS workers isn't looking so good now if NI is going up to help pay for it.

    The hand giveth, the hand taketh away...

    https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1434590302279458816
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,118
    algarkirk said:

    It is no surprise that some people think it is all free. The young by and large have better things to think about, good for them, and for quite a few people it actually is free. Only politics nerds will think much more about it unless they have to.

    Not quite. It's one of the things that most people don't think about it until it actually affects them.
    And the ones really affected often aren't the 'chattering classes'.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 945
    Scott_xP said:

    jonny83 said:

    That upcoming 3% pay rise for NHS workers isn't looking so good now if NI is going up to help pay for it.

    The hand giveth, the hand taketh away...

    https://twitter.com/mortenmorland/status/1434590302279458816
    Love it :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Mr. Pioneers, really?

    For those on low incomes, but still in tax paying range, NI can cost about the same as income tax.

    Along with VAT and income tax it's one of the big three, soo I'd assume most people realise it's just income tax wearing a dress.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,153
    edited September 6
    Offtopic: Anyone aware of a reason for the sudden movement in the Covid restrictions market on Smarkets?
    https://smarkets.com/event/42288882/

    I backed no at 4 and then laid off enough to cover the original stake at 2.44 (should have waited, it got as low as 1.8...). 3.4 for 'no' is starting to look attractive again (I still think it's a <50% chance restrictions come back). So wondering whether there's a report that restrictions might come back or whether it's just people getting jittery about Scotland and expecting a simlar spike in England?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757
    Interesting to see.

    What are Lab's top three "flagship" policies?
  • TOPPING said:

    Interesting to see.

    What are Lab's top three "flagship" policies?
    Something on science and technology, investment, FTTP for all, something like that - fully funded/partnership with the private sector.

    Social care - wealth tax

    NHS investment of X amount

    That's all they really need and they'd do a lot better
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572

    I don't think most people understand what National Insurance is. Of course they support extra cash that they won't have to pay for! Until the tax bills come in.

    "Hang on, you mean I have to pay for it? Booooooo"

    @HYUFD understanding of what NI is and isn't is obviously very much in tune with what Joe Public understands rather than the reality.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,118
    We can but hope.
    I know that Afghanistan is a far-away country, but the pictures from there aren't good, and that sort of thing soaks into people's minds and leaves a generally negative impression.
    Loads of jokes about empty shelves and no lorry drivers don't help either. Much as bendy bananas helped to create the mood which led to Brexit.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,153
    edited September 6
    TOPPING said:

    Selebian said:

    Hmmm.... Remember when May was in invincible mode and thought up the 'Dementia Tax'?

    For many "National Insurance" =/= tax. Hence I don't believe it will be as corrosively spun in PR terms.

    Insurance sounds positively cuddly. Insurance, you say? Well that's great - especially now you can't be too careful, etc...
    Heh, there's something in that. They just need to set up some front companies, put everyone on the default policy at 22%NI and then launch a comparison site offering savings of up to 50% off your NI premium, plus a cuddly Boris toy with every switch :wink:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 17,572
    edited September 6
    The problem that opponents of this approach have is the sound bite version, I think.

    National Insurance to pay for medical/care *sounds* middle-of-the-road, pay-for-stuff....

    My guess is that, as is mentioned in the header, the government will conflate social care with the NHS - as "Social Care/NHS spending" where they can.
  • I think we're seeing the flaw in individual policies being popular.

    Labour's 2019 policies polled very well individually but the overall package was unappealing. I wonder if when the "package" is put together, the Tory offering will look significantly less popular.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 6
    Voters clearly realise that after Covid more funds need to go into the NHS and the Tory manifesto also promised more funds for the NHS and social care so extra revenue has to be raised somehow to pay for it.

    Given NI is not paid by pensioners but income tax is clearly it is no surprise a NI rise is more popular overall than income tax and of course NI was originally set up to fund healthcare and unemployment insurance and state pensions so this is really just returning to its original role.

    Another dementia tax to pay for at home social care as May discovered in 2017 would be deeply unpopular, indeed it was so unpopular then it lost her her majority.

    So Boris chose the least worst option and as long as it is just a 1% NI rise and no more he will escape unscathed
  • HYUFD said:

    Voters clearly realise that after Covid more funds need to go into the NHS and the Tory manifesto also promised more funds for the NHS and social care.

    Given NI is not paid by pensioners but income tax is clearly it is no surprise a NI rise is more popular overall than income tax and of course NI was originally set up to fund healthcare and unemployment insurance and state pensions so this is really just returning to its original role.

    Another dementia tax to pay for at home social care as May discovered in 2017 would be deeply unpopular, indeed it was so unpopular then it lost her her majority

    I wonder if it will be so popular when we learn that the elderly won't pay anything.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting to see.

    What are Lab's top three "flagship" policies?
    Something on science and technology, investment, FTTP for all, something like that - fully funded/partnership with the private sector.

    Social care - wealth tax

    NHS investment of X amount

    That's all they really need and they'd do a lot better
    Did Liz Kendall confirm the Social care - wealth tax this morning?

    What are the broad outlines of such a tax?
  • I still think on the current polling that Labour are going to end up ahead because the Tory vote seems to be very slowly declining
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 469
    The Greens will never poll 10% in a general election and at least half of that will return to Labour so this is a very good poll for them .
  • Mr. Pioneers, really?

    For those on low incomes, but still in tax paying range, NI can cost about the same as income tax.

    Along with VAT and income tax it's one of the big three, soo I'd assume most people realise it's just income tax wearing a dress.

    An awful lot of people do not understand NI. It is not as straight forward as income tax so doesn't get anything like the same attention. Which is why NI has for a long time been a dodge move for frit politicians wanting to put up taxes without looking like they are putting up taxes.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 50,983
    Net "in favour"

    Increase Nat Insurance: +41
    Increase Income Tax: +15



    I think voters are mistaken, but there you go.....
  • nico679 said:

    The Greens will never poll 10% in a general election and at least half of that will return to Labour so this is a very good poll for them .
    Not sure we can just easily conclude that but why do YouGov have the Greens so much higher than other pollsters?
  • Net "in favour"

    Increase Nat Insurance: +41
    Increase Income Tax: +15



    I think voters are mistaken, but there you go.....

    Most voters approved of Corbyn's plans individually as well, this is what I keep saying...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Mr. Battery, we live in strange times so maybe this isn't worth as much as it would otherwise be, but we've had Conservative PMs for over a decade, and purely Conservative government for more than six years now. And we've left the EU, and remain within a pandemic era. It's slightly odd to see people getting excited about an opposition being within 4 points in the middle of a term under such circumstances.

    That said, the Conservatives have a complete idiot as their leader and should replace him.
  • I think we're seeing the flaw in individual policies being popular.

    Labour's 2019 policies polled very well individually but the overall package was unappealing. I wonder if when the "package" is put together, the Tory offering will look significantly less popular.

    Tax has been absolutely weaponised for a couple of generations. People want European levels of service and American levels of taxation. There simply isn't enough headroom in millions of household's finances to cover this.

    We have to ask how we are here. The raising of the tax free allowance by the LibDems lifted the bar where you start paying tax - a lot of people lifted out of income tax entirely or reduced to paying very little. And yet the "squeezed middle" is more squeezed than ever.

    More disposable income = less money than ever to actually spend. Why? Because the cost of living is so huge. Everything costs more so your tax saving goes less far than before. Where has all the money gone. Normals haven't got it, the government apparently hasn't got it, so whose pockets is it sat? Council spending goes hand in hand with the social care crisis - councils are flat broke now the government has decided not to fund them, yet the government is also broke.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841
    We are missing the most important contraversy today. Big Ben's clock is going to be blue.
  • Hmmm.


  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,942

    Net "in favour"

    Increase Nat Insurance: +41
    Increase Income Tax: +15



    I think voters are mistaken, but there you go.....

    Most voters approved of Corbyn's plans individually as well, this is what I keep saying...
    Corbyn's ideas in the 2017 manifesto were very popular, but they were not costed at all.

    Somehow, Labour have drawn the wrong conclusions from the Corbyn Era.

    The right conclusion is to take what was popular from 2017, cost it, and work out how to fund it properly with tax rises.

    Instead, Labour have gone for a vacuous, grey, spongey, nothingness -- made flesh as Sir Keir.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Mr. Eagles, it's almost as if having a healthcare system as a religion isn't a healthy, ahem, thing for a country.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841
    @HYUFD you forcefully point out that Boris won't allow an Indy referendum because it was a promise. How does that differ from a promise not to increase NI?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,875
    Am I the odd one out here?

    My parents never had a driving license or a passport. They certainly never left a house to worry about. Now in my seventies, I have all three and think myself lucky. My wife comes from a long-lived family while mine were may-flies by comparison.

    I'll probably leave the house to her and she could lose it gradually if she suffers from dementia. Meaning the kid's inheritance will be small. But we've given them help with buying houses already, and occasionally when otherwise needed. They can manage well.

    Why fret about not having a house to leave? We won't need it.
  • https://www.twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1434468810036289538

    Where the hell is Labour?

    If you earn more, you'll pay 12% of your earnings between £9,568 and £50,270. You'll pay 2% on any earnings above £50,270.

    Ie 50k a yr pays £ 4,851.84 500k a yr pays £13,878.84..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited September 6

    Net "in favour"

    Increase Nat Insurance: +41
    Increase Income Tax: +15



    I think voters are mistaken, but there you go.....

    Good morning

    I have said over the last few days a NI rise polls well and of course if it is only to safeguard pensioners assets then that is wrong

    However, there is more to this than just that, as an immediate 5.5 billion is to be given to the NHS for covid and to tackle the NHS backlog and eventually a portion of it will go to social care

    I believe the NI increase is correct, but only if it is accompanied by working pensioners paying the full NI rate and an increase in IHT is also implemented

    I reserve judgement on this issue until the full details are realised

    However, re labour, Starmer says he will retain the £20 UC uplift and the 8%+ pensioner increase

    Really
  • Take the polls with a mountain of salt prior to the policy being challenged.

    Once charts start to go around showing how much people lose - as well as who gains instead - and expect the losers to become irate and not forgiving.

    The Tories can forget about my vote if they go ahead with this madness.
  • kjh said:

    @HYUFD you forcefully point out that Boris won't allow an Indy referendum because it was a promise. How does that differ from a promise not to increase NI?

    Because it does.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895

    Hmmm.


    In a forced choice I think that's natural and even right. Everyone needs health care at some point. Only 10% need residential social care, and some of those can either afford it or get decent care now. I'm not downplaying the appalling conditions that some people needing social care (including home care) are in, but if it's a straight health-or-care choice i can see the logic.

    But it's not, of course. There are so many different budget items and so many possible tax sources that anyone from any point in the political spectrum can find a combiation they'd prefer. The risk of making proposals is that people who like any of the numerous alternatives feel hostile to your one. But I think people do exaggerate how strongly people react to small tax/NI increases - when we put up tax 1p to shorten NHS waiting times, nearly everyone saw the point and when the waitimng times came down in remained enduringly popular. Johnson is right that people will shrug off the 1p if it really does some perceptible good.
  • I feel dirty - I agree with Jolyon Maugham.


    Jo Maugham
    @JolyonMaugham
    ·
    Sep 4
    National insurance, unlike income tax, isn't paid on unearned income. Raising national insurance, rather than income tax, is a choice to favour people who don't have to work for a living.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1434072218724675589
  • You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,214

    Take the polls with a mountain of salt prior to the policy being challenged.

    Once charts start to go around showing how much people lose - as well as who gains instead - and expect the losers to become irate and not forgiving.

    The Tories can forget about my vote if they go ahead with this madness.

    People want things but do.not want to pay for it. It definitely isnt madness as you claim.
  • Tax wealth, not workers. This is such a good line, I am genuinely astonished Labour is not running on it
  • I think we're seeing the flaw in individual policies being popular.

    Labour's 2019 policies polled very well individually but the overall package was unappealing. I wonder if when the "package" is put together, the Tory offering will look significantly less popular.

    Tax has been absolutely weaponised for a couple of generations. People want European levels of service and American levels of taxation. There simply isn't enough headroom in millions of household's finances to cover this.

    We have to ask how we are here. The raising of the tax free allowance by the LibDems lifted the bar where you start paying tax - a lot of people lifted out of income tax entirely or reduced to paying very little. And yet the "squeezed middle" is more squeezed than ever.

    More disposable income = less money than ever to actually spend. Why? Because the cost of living is so huge. Everything costs more so your tax saving goes less far than before. Where has all the money gone. Normals haven't got it, the government apparently hasn't got it, so whose pockets is it sat? Council spending goes hand in hand with the social care crisis - councils are flat broke now the government has decided not to fund them, yet the government is also broke.
    Its almost as if having a policy of encouraging inefficient minimum wage work, subsidised to be kept at minimum wage, instead of efficient productive work is counterproductive.
  • https://www.twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1434468810036289538

    Where the hell is Labour?

    If you earn more, you'll pay 12% of your earnings between £9,568 and £50,270. You'll pay 2% on any earnings above £50,270.

    Ie 50k a yr pays £ 4,851.84 500k a yr pays £13,878.84..

    Like I said, people will support this as they think it isn't a tax. And the ones who do notice that its a tax on income will think the better off will pay more.

    Nope. NI is a fantastic rise for the posho's as the more you earn the less you pay - that 2% rate once you tip through £50k makes it a far more palatable tax than income tax.

    Labour's problem is this. 1% on NI raises Fuck All in comparison to what is needed. So it isn't even a sticking plaster to the solution but if they oppose it the Tories will smash them as having no solutions for the crisis. Or if they point out that it isn't enough the Tories will smash them as wanting to tax the hard working even harder to pay for their waste.
  • Take the polls with a mountain of salt prior to the policy being challenged.

    Once charts start to go around showing how much people lose - as well as who gains instead - and expect the losers to become irate and not forgiving.

    The Tories can forget about my vote if they go ahead with this madness.

    People want things but do.not want to pay for it. It definitely isnt madness as you claim.
    I think people should pay for it.

    Starting with the people with the wealth and savings who want the provision of care, they can use their own savings. That's what its there for.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380

    I think we're seeing the flaw in individual policies being popular.

    Labour's 2019 policies polled very well individually but the overall package was unappealing. I wonder if when the "package" is put together, the Tory offering will look significantly less popular.

    Tax has been absolutely weaponised for a couple of generations. People want European levels of service and American levels of taxation. There simply isn't enough headroom in millions of household's finances to cover this.

    We have to ask how we are here. The raising of the tax free allowance by the LibDems lifted the bar where you start paying tax - a lot of people lifted out of income tax entirely or reduced to paying very little. And yet the "squeezed middle" is more squeezed than ever.

    More disposable income = less money than ever to actually spend. Why? Because the cost of living is so huge. Everything costs more so your tax saving goes less far than before. Where has all the money gone. Normals haven't got it, the government apparently hasn't got it, so whose pockets is it sat? Council spending goes hand in hand with the social care crisis - councils are flat broke now the government has decided not to fund them, yet the government is also broke.
    It’s all gone to home-owning pensioners and digital monopolists.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 43,595
    edited September 6

    You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving

    And by the way I qualified my support if you read my post properly
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,718

    https://www.twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1434468810036289538

    Where the hell is Labour?

    If you earn more, you'll pay 12% of your earnings between £9,568 and £50,270. You'll pay 2% on any earnings above £50,270.

    Ie 50k a yr pays £ 4,851.84 500k a yr pays £13,878.84..

    Well the 'fairer' way would be also a penny on the higher rate.

    It should be on income tax, not on national insurance, as simple as that.
  • https://www.twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1434468810036289538

    Where the hell is Labour?

    If you earn more, you'll pay 12% of your earnings between £9,568 and £50,270. You'll pay 2% on any earnings above £50,270.

    Ie 50k a yr pays £ 4,851.84 500k a yr pays £13,878.84..

    Like I said, people will support this as they think it isn't a tax. And the ones who do notice that its a tax on income will think the better off will pay more.

    Nope. NI is a fantastic rise for the posho's as the more you earn the less you pay - that 2% rate once you tip through £50k makes it a far more palatable tax than income tax.

    Labour's problem is this. 1% on NI raises Fuck All in comparison to what is needed. So it isn't even a sticking plaster to the solution but if they oppose it the Tories will smash them as having no solutions for the crisis. Or if they point out that it isn't enough the Tories will smash them as wanting to tax the hard working even harder to pay for their waste.
    Not only is it a palatable income if you're well off, the better off you are the easier a tax it is to dodge, unlike people on PAYE as an employee.

    Unlike Income Tax there are so many exemptions whereby you don't need to pay NI, it stiffs the people who are paying their way on PAYE and nobody else.
  • You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving
    Don't be a prick, I never boasted about how I could afford a house. Apologise and withdraw that claim you arsehole.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    Lab + Green on 44% is pretty decent
  • I think we're seeing the flaw in individual policies being popular.

    Labour's 2019 policies polled very well individually but the overall package was unappealing. I wonder if when the "package" is put together, the Tory offering will look significantly less popular.

    Tax has been absolutely weaponised for a couple of generations. People want European levels of service and American levels of taxation. There simply isn't enough headroom in millions of household's finances to cover this.

    We have to ask how we are here. The raising of the tax free allowance by the LibDems lifted the bar where you start paying tax - a lot of people lifted out of income tax entirely or reduced to paying very little. And yet the "squeezed middle" is more squeezed than ever.

    More disposable income = less money than ever to actually spend. Why? Because the cost of living is so huge. Everything costs more so your tax saving goes less far than before. Where has all the money gone. Normals haven't got it, the government apparently hasn't got it, so whose pockets is it sat? Council spending goes hand in hand with the social care crisis - councils are flat broke now the government has decided not to fund them, yet the government is also broke.
    Its almost as if having a policy of encouraging inefficient minimum wage work, subsidised to be kept at minimum wage, instead of efficient productive work is counterproductive.
    You and I often disagree but you do make a few good points. The post-industrial economic settlement was to replace heavy industry with warehouse work. Coalfields that used to be coal and steel are so often now distribution parks and call centres.

    Where the UK went wrong is that in the 80s we decided that a quick buck selling things off was economic activity of the same value as making things and investing in things.

    It would be rather difficult now for the UK to try and reverse this and invest heavily in R&D and manufacturing - with a national ownership lock as our friends in Europe kept - to bring back productive work as opposed to warehouses shifting things that foreign productive work made.
  • You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving
    Buying a house should be affordable from wages, not inheritance.

    If we didn't have such high tax rates, it could be.
  • Pensioners who won't pay for new policy conveniently on board with new policy.

    Tax the wealthy and pay for it that way.
  • Lab + Green on 44% is pretty decent
    Hardly. Green on 10% translates to 2 seats at best.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited September 6

    You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving
    Buying a house should be affordable from wages, not inheritance.

    If we didn't have such high tax rates, it could be.
    Not in most of London and the Home Counties it wouldn't be.

    In London the average house price is now over £600,000 and in the South East over £400,000, even the full time average London wage before tax is only £41,000. Combined for a couple that makes £82,000 and 4.5 times that is only £369,000.

  • Lab + Green on 44% is pretty decent
    Hardly. Green on 10% translates to 2 seats at best.
    Somebody needs to explain why YouGov have the Greens so high
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    I feel dirty - I agree with Jolyon Maugham.


    Jo Maugham
    @JolyonMaugham
    ·
    Sep 4
    National insurance, unlike income tax, isn't paid on unearned income. Raising national insurance, rather than income tax, is a choice to favour people who don't have to work for a living.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1434072218724675589

    It really should be scrapped and replaced by more income tax.
  • You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving
    Buying a house should be affordable from wages, not inheritance.

    If we didn't have such high tax rates, it could be.
    I agree with you and the vast majority buy homes without any inheritance notwithstanding @CorrectHorseBattery good fortune

    Covid has changed everything and I am afraid it is a fact that tax rises are inevitable and my only concern with the NI increase is that it is seen as fair, hence why I want all working pensioners to pay it and an increase in IHT
  • You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving
    Don't be a prick, I never boasted about how I could afford a house. Apologise and withdraw that claim you arsehole.
    I have no intention of responding to such abusive language
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    kjh said:

    @HYUFD you forcefully point out that Boris won't allow an Indy referendum because it was a promise. How does that differ from a promise not to increase NI?

    As Covid necessitated extra funds for the NHS, it did not necessitate indyref2, in fact the reverse
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 30,757

    Take the polls with a mountain of salt prior to the policy being challenged.

    Once charts start to go around showing how much people lose - as well as who gains instead - and expect the losers to become irate and not forgiving.

    The Tories can forget about my vote if they go ahead with this madness.

    Like Big G, only 40 years ago. Brings a tear to the eye.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,816

    Tax wealth, not workers. This is such a good line, I am genuinely astonished Labour is not running on it

    Because they are in a tough place. Labour hold Bootle and Putney, but not Hartlepool or Mansfield. They want to win 100+ seats among the middling sort because they already hold the educated academe, super urban, Bame and woke ones.

    Their supporters base includes large numbers of those who would get social care free or freeish because they don't hold assets and have low incomes; and people in Hampstead and Putney who 'go private' anyway.

    The several million extra votes they need must come from the middling sort, who are currently hit by the risk of social care costs and will be hit by both NI and IT rises. The poorest and the wealthiest have the least to trouble about in this particular debate.

    Labour therefore want to keep out because of their present base, but have a view because of the votes they need. Good luck.

  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    edited September 6
    This policy isn't fair because it makes young people pay for elderly care, elderly people don't pay it and won't pay for very long as they'll be dead.

    Yet the young have ridiculous house prices, tuition fees because that generation pulled up the rug behind them.

    And yet you still get pricks here saying "oh you can afford a house with inheritance", I hate the system as it is. I want to build more houses and mean people don't need to inherit wealth in order to be able to afford houses. That's not me boasting about inheriting, I realise how incredibly fortunate I am to be in this position and I've said that on every occasion but the reality is that the system is broken. I can hardly afford a house in London with a relative + inheritance, on my own I'd have no chance. Yet the elderly generation had no trouble at all.

    Many of the elderly (some here have been decent to their credit), will do anything they can do bleed the youth dry, bunch of condescending, inconsiderate arseholes.

    I'm going off a while, to work, as I have to earn money to live. Bye
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    HYUFD said:

    Voters clearly realise that after Covid more funds need to go into the NHS and the Tory manifesto also promised more funds for the NHS and social care.

    Given NI is not paid by pensioners but income tax is clearly it is no surprise a NI rise is more popular overall than income tax and of course NI was originally set up to fund healthcare and unemployment insurance and state pensions so this is really just returning to its original role.

    Another dementia tax to pay for at home social care as May discovered in 2017 would be deeply unpopular, indeed it was so unpopular then it lost her her majority

    I wonder if it will be so popular when we learn that the elderly won't pay anything.
    The elderly have already paid NI all their working lives and the triple lock it is reported will be frozen not rise
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,118

    Lab + Green on 44% is pretty decent
    Hardly. Green on 10% translates to 2 seats at best.
    One in Norwich? And/or another in Bristol? Plus the one in Brighton. Can't see any hopes anywhere else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    Lab + Green on 44% is pretty decent
    Labour on 34% is no higher than Kinnock in 1992
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    Anyone got the full details? Who else has gone down?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841

    This policy isn't fair because it makes young people pay for elderly care, elderly people don't pay it and won't pay for very long as they'll be dead.

    Yet the young have ridiculous house prices, tuition fees because that generation pulled up the rug behind them.

    And yet you still get pricks here saying "oh you can afford a house with inheritance", I hate the system as it is. I want to build more houses and mean people don't need to inherit wealth in order to be able to afford houses. That's not me boasting about inheriting, I realise how incredibly fortunate I am to be in this position and I've said that on every occasion but the reality is that the system is broken. I can hardly afford a house in London with a relative + inheritance, on my own I'd have no chance. Yet the elderly generation had no trouble at all.

    The elderly will do anything they can do bleed the youth dry, bunch of condescending, inconsiderate arseholes.

    I'm going off a while, to work, as I have to earn money to live. Bye

    Excuse me, don't put us all in the same bucket.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    algarkirk said:

    Tax wealth, not workers. This is such a good line, I am genuinely astonished Labour is not running on it

    Because they are in a tough place. Labour hold Bootle and Putney, but not Hartlepool or Mansfield. They want to win 100+ seats among the middling sort because they already hold the educated academe, super urban, Bame and woke ones.

    Their supporters base includes large numbers of those who would get social care free or freeish because they don't hold assets and have low incomes; and people in Hampstead and Putney who 'go private' anyway.

    The several million extra votes they need must come from the middling sort, who are currently hit by the risk of social care costs and will be hit by both NI and IT rises. The poorest and the wealthiest have the least to trouble about in this particular debate.

    Labour therefore want to keep out because of their present base, but have a view because of the votes they need. Good luck.

    Their woke middle class anti Brexit support are unlikely to start voting Tory just because Labour wants to tax them more. In fact many champagne socialists would be happy to pay more tax.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 60,264
    edited September 6
    HYUFD said:

    You believe the NI insurance increase is right Big G because conveniently you won't have to pay anything. Yet the young will.

    You should pay, pay your own way

    I have paid my way all my life and will continue to do so

    I will pay the care costs of my wife and I if they become necessary, remember that if you have a continual need for nhs care it is free, and only if you go into health care usually because of dementia you risk losing your home

    And you boast how you are buying a house in London from an inheritance which does seem odd that you do not want others to have the benefit you are receiving
    Buying a house should be affordable from wages, not inheritance.

    If we didn't have such high tax rates, it could be.
    Not in London and the South East it wouldn't be.

    In London the average house price is now over £600,000 and in the South East over £400,000 even the full time average London wage before tax is only £41,000. Combined for a couple that makes £82,000 and 4.5 times that is only £369,000.

    You do realise don't you that the majority of homes are sold for less than the average house price? 🤦‍♂️

    Even if you use median averages half of homes are sold for less than that, but for mean averages then multimillion pound homes drag the average up by more than dilapidated homes drop it by.

    London's not cheap but its possible to buy a home for less than £369k even there. I've just put in Rightmove a search for London, 3 beds, with a filter for excluding shared ownership and it literally found hundreds of properties at the price you said.

    Saving for the deposit can be the hardest part of getting a loan and if taxes weren't so high so people had more disposable income they'd be able to save up more via work and not rely upon an inheritance.

    EDIT: Change it to 2 beds and there's thousands of homes available to get on the ladder at that price.
  • This is a fantastic idea. I'm retiring soon :D
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters clearly realise that after Covid more funds need to go into the NHS and the Tory manifesto also promised more funds for the NHS and social care.

    Given NI is not paid by pensioners but income tax is clearly it is no surprise a NI rise is more popular overall than income tax and of course NI was originally set up to fund healthcare and unemployment insurance and state pensions so this is really just returning to its original role.

    Another dementia tax to pay for at home social care as May discovered in 2017 would be deeply unpopular, indeed it was so unpopular then it lost her her majority

    I wonder if it will be so popular when we learn that the elderly won't pay anything.
    The elderly have already paid NI all their working lives and the triple lock it is reported will be frozen not rise
    They didn't pay this rate of NI, if they did it wouldn't be going up. 🙄🤦‍♂️

    They saved for a Rainy Day and then when the Rainy Day arrives expect others to pay more taxes so they don't have to use their own savings.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,214
    HYUFD said:

    Lab + Green on 44% is pretty decent
    Labour on 34% is no higher than Kinnock in 1992
    Ok?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD you forcefully point out that Boris won't allow an Indy referendum because it was a promise. How does that differ from a promise not to increase NI?

    As Covid necessitated extra funds for the NHS, it did not necessitate indyref2, in fact the reverse
    Ah ok. So when you say never what you really mean is that if Boris can find a good reason to break that promise it is ok then.

    That is not a position I disagree with, but it is not what you have been saying.

    So if something happens that changes Boris's mind (as with the NI increase) then we may have an Indy ref. That is not what you have been saying is it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    algarkirk said:

    Tax wealth, not workers. This is such a good line, I am genuinely astonished Labour is not running on it

    Because they are in a tough place. Labour hold Bootle and Putney, but not Hartlepool or Mansfield. They want to win 100+ seats among the middling sort because they already hold the educated academe, super urban, Bame and woke ones.

    Their supporters base includes large numbers of those who would get social care free or freeish because they don't hold assets and have low incomes; and people in Hampstead and Putney who 'go private' anyway.

    The several million extra votes they need must come from the middling sort, who are currently hit by the risk of social care costs and will be hit by both NI and IT rises. The poorest and the wealthiest have the least to trouble about in this particular debate.

    Labour therefore want to keep out because of their present base, but have a view because of the votes they need. Good luck.

    Their woke middle class anti Brexit support are unlikely to start voting Tory just because Labour wants to tax them more. In fact many champagne socialists would be happy to pay more tax.
    Wealthy left liberals in Hampstead, Cambridge, Oxford, Holborn and St Pancras, Hornsey and Wood Green, Islington etc could certainly go LD if Labour proposes big rises in tax on their properties
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,119

    This policy isn't fair because it makes young people pay for elderly care, elderly people don't pay it and won't pay for very long as they'll be dead.

    Yet the young have ridiculous house prices, tuition fees because that generation pulled up the rug behind them.

    And yet you still get pricks here saying "oh you can afford a house with inheritance", I hate the system as it is. I want to build more houses and mean people don't need to inherit wealth in order to be able to afford houses. That's not me boasting about inheriting, I realise how incredibly fortunate I am to be in this position and I've said that on every occasion but the reality is that the system is broken. I can hardly afford a house in London with a relative + inheritance, on my own I'd have no chance. Yet the elderly generation had no trouble at all.

    Many of the elderly (some here have been decent to their credit), will do anything they can do bleed the youth dry, bunch of condescending, inconsiderate arseholes.

    I'm going off a while, to work, as I have to earn money to live. Bye

    We look forward to your return! 👍
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,406
    The state of this discussion.

    No wonder social care reforms are 20 years overdue.
  • I would suggest there is some misunderstanding in the proposals relating to elderly care

    At present the elderly pay for their care from the asset that is their home down to £23,000

    The new proposals will lift that £23,000 to £60,000 - £80,000 above which the pensioner will still be required to pay the costs

    It is not that all the asset is protected
  • Hmmm.


    Social care is never going to be popular.

    It costs a lot and brings sod all joy and benefit to those involved.

    Why would people want to spend tens of thousands in lingering a little longer when senile and helpless when that money can materially improve their life for decades when they are younger.

    How do people describe how they want to die ? Quickly, painlessly and while they're still healthy.

    Social care is the opposite of that.

    So what's the answer ?

    A low ceiling on social care costs, maybe 5k or 10k, followed by dignitas.
  • I think we're seeing the flaw in individual policies being popular.

    Labour's 2019 policies polled very well individually but the overall package was unappealing. I wonder if when the "package" is put together, the Tory offering will look significantly less popular.

    Tax has been absolutely weaponised for a couple of generations. People want European levels of service and American levels of taxation. There simply isn't enough headroom in millions of household's finances to cover this.

    We have to ask how we are here. The raising of the tax free allowance by the LibDems lifted the bar where you start paying tax - a lot of people lifted out of income tax entirely or reduced to paying very little. And yet the "squeezed middle" is more squeezed than ever.

    More disposable income = less money than ever to actually spend. Why? Because the cost of living is so huge. Everything costs more so your tax saving goes less far than before. Where has all the money gone. Normals haven't got it, the government apparently hasn't got it, so whose pockets is it sat? Council spending goes hand in hand with the social care crisis - councils are flat broke now the government has decided not to fund them, yet the government is also broke.
    The cost of living is not huge if you bought your house twenty years or more ago.

    For parts of the country its not huge even if you bought more recently.
  • Hmmm.


    Social care is never going to be popular.

    It costs a lot and brings sod all joy and benefit to those involved.

    Why would people want to spend tens of thousands in lingering a little longer when senile and helpless when that money can materially improve their life for decades when they are younger.

    How do people describe how they want to die ? Quickly, painlessly and while they're still healthy.

    Social care is the opposite of that.

    So what's the answer ?

    A low ceiling on social care costs, maybe 5k or 10k, followed by dignitas.
    I don't think it should be compulsory, or cost-related but I certainly think it should be optional for those who want it.

    My wife works in a Care Home. Some there enjoy their lives and want to make the most of their time remaining - but a lot of them are desperate to die. She has people begging her to let them die literally on a daily basis. 😢
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632

    I would suggest there is some misunderstanding in the proposals relating to elderly care

    At present the elderly pay for their care from the asset that is their home down to £23,000

    The new proposals will lift that £23,000 to £60,000 - £80,000 above which the pensioner will still be required to pay the costs

    It is not that all the asset is protected

    Does the NI increase cover more than that cost? We don't hypothecate taxes (except for the BBC) in this country, so it wouldn't surprise me if the government is trying to raise taxes in general (i.e. to cover the cost of COVID) and doing it under the cover of "solving social care".
  • Hmmm.


    Social care is never going to be popular.

    It costs a lot and brings sod all joy and benefit to those involved.

    Why would people want to spend tens of thousands in lingering a little longer when senile and helpless when that money can materially improve their life for decades when they are younger.

    How do people describe how they want to die ? Quickly, painlessly and while they're still healthy.

    Social care is the opposite of that.

    So what's the answer ?

    A low ceiling on social care costs, maybe 5k or 10k, followed by dignitas.
    I'm pondering whether inheritance tax should be increased.

    50% above £325,000 and 66% above £500,000.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 9,371
    edited September 6

    Hmmm.


    Social care is never going to be popular.

    It costs a lot and brings sod all joy and benefit to those involved.

    Why would people want to spend tens of thousands in lingering a little longer when senile and helpless when that money can materially improve their life for decades when they are younger.

    How do people describe how they want to die ? Quickly, painlessly and while they're still healthy.

    Social care is the opposite of that.

    So what's the answer ?

    A low ceiling on social care costs, maybe 5k or 10k, followed by dignitas.
    That's rather a misanthropic answer imo. Shades of "sod the oldies".

    "Social care" begins long before people are "senile and helpless".

    If I were a Doctor, I might prescribe a year of volunteering as a social care assistant.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841

    I would suggest there is some misunderstanding in the proposals relating to elderly care

    At present the elderly pay for their care from the asset that is their home down to £23,000

    The new proposals will lift that £23,000 to £60,000 - £80,000 above which the pensioner will still be required to pay the costs

    It is not that all the asset is protected

    Good point BigG. Do any of us actually know what the proposal is yet? Would be ironic if the proposal was an increase in NI and yet HYUFD still couldn't actually inherit his parent's house.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    Social care is never going to be popular.

    It costs a lot and brings sod all joy and benefit to those involved.

    Why would people want to spend tens of thousands in lingering a little longer when senile and helpless when that money can materially improve their life for decades when they are younger.

    How do people describe how they want to die ? Quickly, painlessly and while they're still healthy.

    Social care is the opposite of that.

    So what's the answer ?

    A low ceiling on social care costs, maybe 5k or 10k, followed by dignitas.
    That's rather a misanthropic answer imo. Shades of "sod the oldies".

    "Social care" begins long before people are "senile and helpless".
    But quite a lot of that is already paid for by the tax payer.
  • The state of this discussion.

    No wonder social care reforms are 20 years overdue.

    This is all Jeremy Corbyn's fault.

    His uncosted bullshit became popular and cost Mrs May a majority of 150 seats.

    That would have allowed social care to be fixed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380
    edited September 6
    If the government were serious it would build a consensus around the following:

    We tax income too highly, wealth not enough
    We consume too much, invest too little
    Government spending has to rise to address demographics, levelling up, and climate change.

    The policy follows from there.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,841

    Hmmm.


    Social care is never going to be popular.

    It costs a lot and brings sod all joy and benefit to those involved.

    Why would people want to spend tens of thousands in lingering a little longer when senile and helpless when that money can materially improve their life for decades when they are younger.

    How do people describe how they want to die ? Quickly, painlessly and while they're still healthy.

    Social care is the opposite of that.

    So what's the answer ?

    A low ceiling on social care costs, maybe 5k or 10k, followed by dignitas.
    I'm pondering whether inheritance tax should be increased.

    50% above £325,000 and 66% above £500,000.
    Trouble is this is, irrationally, also a suicide decision as far as many voters are concerned.
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