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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The January ICM poll sees LAB lead down to 3 and the LDs th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The January ICM poll sees LAB lead down to 3 and the LDs the main gainer
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electionista @electionista 49s
UK - ICM/Guardian poll: CON 32% LAB 35% LDEM 14% UKIP 10% http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/13/support-labour-shrinks-economic-recovery-icm-poll?CMP=twt_gu …
"Support for Labour is sinking as faith in the UK's economic recovery builds, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll.
Ed Miliband's party drops two points on the month to stand at just 35%, which is just three points ahead of David Cameron's Conservatives, who stand still on 32%. Labour's lead in the Guardian's respected 30-year polling series is thus squeezed to just three percentage points, down from five last month and eight points in November.
The Liberal Democrats climb two, to reach 14%, and Ukip edges up one, to stand at 10%.
The scores of both the main government and opposition parties are now back to where they were last August, before Miliband's popular conference promise to freeze domestic fuel bills. The economic news since has mostly been positive since, with falling inflation as well as unemployment, which could reduce the resonance of Labour's "cost of living crisis" pitch."
http://www.scotsman.com/news/danny-alexander-blog-on-uk-government-debt-1-3266453
The Lib Dems are going home"
After the misery and disappointment of the last few days a little over reaction and exuberence is called for.
Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 15%, UKIP 6%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6886
So UKIP are the only year-on-year winner.
If the rise of the Lib Dems is reflected in other polling this may be the year of his resurrection and vindication.
Poor young Miliband. Not good at all. If this continues I can see eds rolling.
A marker but to what? The Lib-Dhimmie share points to an outlier - surely ~ 1/6th of the sample are not mentally senile (hi Marque) - so we should expect the following in February:
Lab : 36% Con : 33% UKIP : 12% Others : Who gives a feck....Noise; just noise. Let us see the New Year pattern emerge....*
* It could be "eight"! :snigger:
Jan 2012: Con 40%, Lab 35%, LD 16%, UKIP 2%
Jan 2013: Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 15%, UKIP 6%
Jan 2014: Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 14%, UKIP 10%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I give you the First Mistress of Russia:
http://bit.ly/1dKHWxF
At least Alinka knows how to deal with balls.
32% now, 33% 12 months ago. It's core vote, Howard 2005 type numbers.
The show no sign of breaking out from that. Nothing else really matters, Lead doesn't matter, it's all about vote share.
Con ain't going up tho...
So NOM.,
In one block of flats not one single household had manager to send back the electoral registration form or register on line or even by phone. In another, of the six that answered their door to me the total IQ of the lot of them probably wasn't much above 500. The worse thing is thanks to my efforts they have now all got votes.
In January 2014, not.
Still Ed may get a visiting professorship at the LSE as compensation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-25681118
He started off with a big union and a small house and ended up with a small union and big house.
Though I think it was multiple houses in the end:
"Documents arising from the case show that Mr Scargill, a fierce opponent of Margaret Thatcher, tried to use her "right-to-buy" legislation for council tenants when he made an application in 1993 to buy the Barbican flat at a discounted price."
http://labourmajority.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Majority-Rules1.pdf
And if you injure yourself through exercise or indulge in dangerous sports or even drive a car? The reality is if you start compiling a list of all those things which people choose to do which might cause serious injury or illness which arguably they could avoid it would be so long and so comprehensive that it would include just about everybody in one way or another.
Now if you don't compile a list and just "cherry pick" those things that suit you or you 'don't like'. That's called bigotry.
The answer is that the model of how health provision is funded is archaic and should be scrapped completely and a new model introduced. Of course Government will not even consider that for decades I suspect.
Jack's ARSE is going to go down as the greatest predictor in human history !
Even when shown hard evidence about what is popular Cameron still caved afterwards.
And still people claim he's going to be able to negotiate a new EU treaty.
Titters ....
Labour are likely to get a narrow majority and be absolutely trashed when the promised sweeties fail to appear.
The LDs are apparently going to campaign as the pro-EU party.
Michael Fallon has advocated the Conservatives campaigning on a pro-EU platform. (I don't think they will, but it would be fun!)
The IEA Brexit prize will be announced in March.
http://www.iea.org.uk/brexit
Andrew Tyrie: I did not sign Conservative EU veto letter
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25722778
AL is right. Frankly I cannot see how Dan Hannan, having expressed the views he has, can stand on the Conservative platform, or how Bernard Jenkin, having signed the letter he has, can vote for the Conservative list, for the Euro elections this May. Perhaps they can explain? And what of Toby Young, apparently urging Conservatives in the forthcoming Manchester by-election to vote UKIP, yet suffering no sanction whatever? At the very least the PM's strategy to secure a renegotiated UK membership of the EU, should he win the next election, has been holed below the water line. He would need it seems an outright majority of at least 95.This sorry farce of deception and dishonesty must be coming to some sort of denouement soon, surely?
Even the left of the party has had enough......
1. Scotland doesn't pay the debt. The Unionists in London have been going on ad nauseam about Scotland being a new state (as if the Parliament was not the 1707 one reconvened, but never mind) so they can claim to be the continuing UK and keep the nukes, UN Security Council seat, etc. (well, it will be realpolitik that determines that anyway). Yet that would mean that Scotland gets no assets other than those on its soil, but no debts either (now that would astound me, I have to say). Ergo rUK (a tendentious term in itself) has to promise to pay all the debt, which it has done. And Scotland then has no debt to pay, so all the stuff about reneging is meaningless.
2. The other option is the current SNP proposal, that Scotland pays its share of the debt. But UK assurance of the whole debt surely only makes sense if this debt is all denominated in sterking and not converted on indy to, say, the merk Scots, assurance surely only makes sense in the event of a continuing sterling union (if only because anything else gets terribly complicated).
Of course it is being spin as protection against the spendthrift Scots - but if London could spend money with the efficiency of John Swinney with absolutely no borrowing at all (barring recent capital fund developments) we wouldn't be in such a bad problem.
To the nearest decade will do.
The debt could be owed by Scotland to rUK, denominated in sterling but the rUK decline to allow Scotland to stay in the sterling zone. If Scotland refused these terms, it might need, for example, to give up on entry to the EU, without rUK's support. Or it may simply not be allowed to secede with rUK's consent if Scotland refuses to accept reasonable terms. It can't play pick n mix secession.
Eloi on the surface and Morlocks subterranean.
Considering the number of giant basements being excavated in Central London nowadays and your friends/pets in the blocks, it looks like Wells got his directions round the wrong way.
Only a small fraction of my pension will come from the state. The obese smokers' healthcare will be entirely paid for via the government.
In Scotland: who will stick up for Scotland vs rUK?
In rUK: who will stick up for England-Wales-N.Ireland vs Scotland?
We should encourage retired people to take up smoking.
That is one scenario that's been examined by Unionist politicians.
However, they also reckon that the Treasury could counter any such move by simply saying that, in such a case, it will refuse to hand over to an independent Scotland the tax, duty and VAT revenue it would still be collecting.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10569918/Salmonds-hollow-victory-in-a-phoney-war-over-debt.html
CON 33%, LAB 38%, LD 11%, UKIP 12%
Ex-Labour spin chief @campbellclaret says @Ed_Miliband has NO chance of winning a majority in 2015: http://bit.ly/1a2BgiV
Surely the Tories will have to learn sooner or later that 'sulk' isn't a credible policy on the EU? It would be comical if it didn't look like they were splitting down the middle and (in my view) damaging the country. Cameron has got to lead here; he had a point when he promised to stop banging on about Europe. But he's opened Pandora's box by talking about referenda and renegotiation, but he seems to have lost control and doesn't have a plan to get it back.
Brought to mind Mr Jones's 'plantation economy' viewpoint.
Reassuringly I found that I did. All is right and well with the world
I must admit I came away with a lot of sympathy for the Romanians - one lot were scrounging stuff out of bins and taking it to the tip to make money. The 2nd lot had about 13 of them living in a house and were exploited by their boss as slave labour. Some of them eventually ended up sleeping rough in London and said that was better than living in Brum.
I couldn't help wondering how all the Romanians had got here considering this was filmed last year before they were allowed to come here officially. Ditto how the Algerian bloke got here.
As for the locals, what a shower! White Dee was pretty much a poster child for where the benefits system has gone wrong - smoking, drinking, massively obese, playing the lotto, poor mother and no sign of looking for a job!