Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The share of the GB vote required for an overall majority –

2»

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:


    Not difficult was it

    Labour voters think:
    i) Lab should neither support nor oppose (39)
    ii) Lab should support (35)
    iii) Lab should oppose (19)

    Well done Ed - ignore the views of three quarters of your supporters and plump for the views of the Daily Mail one in five.....

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    What was the OBR growth forecast out of interest ? 0.8% ?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    tim said:


    Not difficult was it

    Well done Ed - ignore the views of three quarters of your supporters and plump for the views of the Daily Mail one in five.....

    That's leadership for you, Carlotta.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    That French unemployment is just the headline number.

    When you add in socialists' penchant for training schemes and non-jobs (Cinque a jour consultante) goodness knows what the real numbers are...
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    There's a funny comment to that Figaro article on French unemployment:

    On est en finale, on est en finale, on est, on est, on est en finale !
    Bon ça va être chaud en finale contre l'Espagne, mais vu qu'eux ne truandent pas sur les chiffres et qu'on peut compter en plus sur les DOM/TOM, on a toutes nos chances !


    which translates to something like:

    "We're in the final! We're in the final! Go, France!

    OK, it's going to be a tough final against Spain, but given that they don't fiddle the figures and we can count on the 'DOM/TOMs' [French overseas territories] as well, we've got a real chance of beating them!"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    fpt sunil:

    Sadly, today is not the sixtieth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the structure of DNA; it is the date of the release of the paper.

    The actual announcement was made in the Eagle pub in Cambridge on February 28th, 1953.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eagle_(pub)

    It's an interesting place (also famous for its RAF bar, where RAF personnel in WWII wrote their names on the ceiling, most of which are still visible). I made a little pilgrimage to the Eagle on the date to commemorate the discovery. And to have a few drinks, of course...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Once state owned multi-occupier property earns market rents and is valued at market prices, it becomes liquid, enabling sale from government to private ownership

    It's liquid anyway, as the sale of council houses showed.
    The idea that the taxpayer has to pay ever higher housing benefit to somehow maintain the resale value of a house built by a council or housing association is bizarre.
    But it is Osborne's policy, plus a big cut to BTL landlords and a slice for the bank.

    Taxpayer is on the hook for everything and Osborne has to pay out more and more in housing benefit every year to sustain it.

    Liquidity is not absolute. Semi-detached and detached council houses are more liquid than, say, flats in a tower block and the liquidity applies mainly to sales where a tenant converts to an owner-occupier.

    The market for landlords is not liquid: it is very difficult to buy or sell multi-occupied blocks of flats and estates for example.The main reason being that the rental incomes are below market levels: potential buyers would be better investing their funds elsewhere.

    Every time the taxpayer pays housing benefit at below economic rates, the saving on expense is offset by a capital cost. Allowing rents and properties find their market level, adjusting housing benefit to the market rents and then selling the property to the private sector is the way forward.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Not difficult was it

    Well done Ed - ignore the views of three quarters of your supporters and plump for the views of the Daily Mail one in five.....

    That's leadership for you, Carlotta.
    Its only leadership when people follow, Neil.....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Labour leader Ed Miliband says he is “totally against” the general strike being proposed by the Unite union.

    He told ITV News: “I think it’s a terrible idea… I’m totally against a general strike.”


    Not difficult was it


    What does rEd think about French unemployment - not enough anti-austerity ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Labour voters also hold different views on legality of strikes for political purposes:

    OA (Lab VI)
    Should be Legal: 29 (50)
    Shouldn't be Legal: 54 (31)
    Net: -15 (+19)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    Its only leadership when people follow, Neil.....

    I'm confident Ed will deliver a lack of a general strike.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Neil said:


    Its only leadership when people follow, Neil.....

    I'm confident Ed will deliver a lack of a general strike.
    And disappoint Labour voters......(+16 net in favour vs -30 for OA)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    What was the OBR growth forecast out of interest ? 0.8% ?

    March EFO. 0.1% for Q1 2013. 0.6% for full year.

    Both are currently being revised up!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Guido has some photos of Farage playing to packed houses ahead of the locals, and talks of overflow rooms needed to cater for attendees.

    Bit creepy, actually.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AveryLP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the OBR growth forecast out of interest ? 0.8% ?

    March EFO. 0.1% for Q1 2013. 0.6% for full year.

    Both are currently being revised up!
    The IMF may have to look at their figures too..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Lib Dems have not had much fun since when government brought upon them the sort of scrutiny the Conservatives and Labour are used to.....now it looks like its going to be UKIP's turn:

    "Farage admits there are some UKIP candidates "we'd rather not have"
    After expelling a former BNP activist, the UKIP leader says the party lacks the resources to properly vet all of its local election candidates."

    "It is hard to think of a greater gift to UKIP's political opponents. By voting for the party are you inadvertently supporting a racist or a fascist? Don't ask Nigel Farage, he can't tell you."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/farage-admits-there-are-some-ukip-candidates-wed-rather-not-have
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    And disappoint Labour voters......(+16 net in favour vs -30 for OA)

    I'm sure they'll get over it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    The Lib Dems have not had much fun since when government brought upon them the sort of scrutiny the Conservatives and Labour are used to.....now it looks like its going to be UKIP's turn:

    "Farage admits there are some UKIP candidates "we'd rather not have"
    After expelling a former BNP activist, the UKIP leader says the party lacks the resources to properly vet all of its local election candidates."

    "It is hard to think of a greater gift to UKIP's political opponents. By voting for the party are you inadvertently supporting a racist or a fascist? Don't ask Nigel Farage, he can't tell you."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/farage-admits-there-are-some-ukip-candidates-wed-rather-not-have

    How long does it take to email them all to weed out the unwanted elements ?

    "Have you ever been a Lib Dem ? Y/N"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,350
    TGOHF said:

    AveryLP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the OBR growth forecast out of interest ? 0.8% ?

    March EFO. 0.1% for Q1 2013. 0.6% for full year.

    Both are currently being revised up!
    The IMF may have to look at their figures too..
    Missed the initial announcement of our growing economy due to heavy duty - and painful -dentistry. But so nice to see the Boy Wonder delivering 0.3% more growth in just this past quarter than the Labour Govt. 2005-2010 managed under the guidance of those two economic titans, Messrs. Brown and Darling....
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    TGOHF said:

    AveryLP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the OBR growth forecast out of interest ? 0.8% ?

    March EFO. 0.1% for Q1 2013. 0.6% for full year.

    Both are currently being revised up!
    The IMF may have to look at their figures too..
    We can put I'll-Ave-Another Blancmange, Ed Conway and tim in detention and force them to do their revision on pain of being ordered to write out a few Georgics.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    Guido has some photos of Farage playing to packed houses ahead of the locals, and talks of overflow rooms needed to cater for attendees.

    Bit creepy, actually.

    Public meetings used to be a big part of UK politics. Nothing creepy about them at all.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    SeanT said:

    fpt sunil:

    Sadly, today is not the sixtieth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the structure of DNA; it is the date of the release of the paper.

    The actual announcement was made in the Eagle pub in Cambridge on February 28th, 1953.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eagle_(pub)

    It's an interesting place (also famous for its RAF bar, where RAF personnel in WWII wrote their names on the ceiling, most of which are still visible). I made a little pilgrimage to the Eagle on the date to commemorate the discovery. And to have a few drinks, of course...

    The Eagle is, also, just across the road from a lovely little church, built by.... King Cnut of the Danes.

    Cambridge is an extraordinary city. One of the most beautiful and remarkable in the world. We under-estimate it, cause it's in our backyard.
    Thanks, Sean. It's good to know that someone who has travelled as extensively as you rates my adopted hometown so highly. And it's so much better than that plebeian city, Oxford. ;-)

    It is also one of the world's best high-tech hubs. Some of the stuff going on around here is quite amazing; at times I feel privileged to have access to just a few of the small start-ups. One or two may change the world, with a fair wind and development cash.

    For instance: the world and his dog knows that the ubiquitous ARM chip was developed by Acorn in Cambridge. Mrs J is developing chip technology that might equally be found in everyones' palms in a few years. And it's green.

    Or Holographic radar - being sold as a way to allow wind turbines to be placed near airports, but also of military importance. http://www.cabume.co.uk/hardware/cambridge-consultants-develops-first-holographic-radar-system-for-us-dod.html

    These are just two out of hundreds of companies and projects. It is so f'ing exciting I could burst.

    But we need more such companies, and other such hubs (e.g. 'Silicon roundabout' and 'Silicon Glen') to go alongside Silicon Fen.

    The church is St Bene't's Church. Sadly a little too much Victorian restoration for my liking.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Bene't's_Church
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    fpt sunil:

    Sadly, today is not the sixtieth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the structure of DNA; it is the date of the release of the paper.

    The actual announcement was made in the Eagle pub in Cambridge on February 28th, 1953.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eagle_(pub)

    It's an interesting place (also famous for its RAF bar, where RAF personnel in WWII wrote their names on the ceiling, most of which are still visible). I made a little pilgrimage to the Eagle on the date to commemorate the discovery. And to have a few drinks, of course...

    The Eagle is, also, just across the road from a lovely little church, built by.... King Cnut of the Danes.

    Cambridge is an extraordinary city. One of the most beautiful and remarkable in the world. We under-estimate it, cause it's in our backyard.
    Shame about the number of concrete buildings in the city centre though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Neil said:


    And disappoint Labour voters......(+16 net in favour vs -30 for OA)

    I'm sure they'll get over it.
    Possibly - but Labour voters are outliers on 'strikes' - much as UKIP are on 'immigration'.

  • Much of the Eurozone doesn't have the enviable luxury of qualifying for "triple dip", given that this requires two discrete/non-adjacent quarters of positive growth. The Euro does, however, qualify for triple cuckoo noises.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    fpt sunil:

    Sadly, today is not the sixtieth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the structure of DNA; it is the date of the release of the paper.

    The actual announcement was made in the Eagle pub in Cambridge on February 28th, 1953.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eagle_(pub)

    It's an interesting place (also famous for its RAF bar, where RAF personnel in WWII wrote their names on the ceiling, most of which are still visible). I made a little pilgrimage to the Eagle on the date to commemorate the discovery. And to have a few drinks, of course...

    The Eagle is, also, just across the road from a lovely little church, built by.... King Cnut of the Danes.

    Cambridge is an extraordinary city. One of the most beautiful and remarkable in the world. We under-estimate it, cause it's in our backyard.
    Shame about the number of concrete buildings in the city centre though.
    You are in the wrong part of town gov - the East Road end aint the city centre ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Farage on R5 slagging off the growth of "just 3%".

    Needs shorter lunches.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    **STOP PRESS**
    Thatcher career based on a fraud! Democracy thwarted!

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/margaret-thatcher-and-the-missing-votes/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    "Scottish independence: ‘Scotland doesn’t need oil’"

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-scotland-doesn-t-need-oil-1-2909839

    So rUK can have it then?

    And:

    "Scotland would be the eighth wealthiest country in the OECD compared with the UK position at 17th place."

    So bye bye EU rebate too then.....impressive negotiating tactics....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Michael Crick tweets:

    'Portsmouth woman accusing Mike Hancock says she's "deflated" after meeting Lib Dem Chief Whip Alistair Carmichael + handing him a thick file"

    So that went well then....
  • samsam Posts: 727
    TGOHF said:

    Farage on R5 slagging off the growth of "just 3%".

    Needs shorter lunches.

    QT should be a riot then... if hes still awake


  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @Telegraph: "Pound spikes to two month high against the dollar, after UK economy avoids triple-dip recession."
  • ,,,,

    "It is hard to think of a greater gift to UKIP's political opponents. By voting for the party are you inadvertently supporting a racist or a fascist? Don't ask Nigel Farage, he can't tell you."

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/04/farage-admits-there-are-some-ukip-candidates-wed-rather-not-have

    I suppose one could vote for a party - Labour - which repeatedly plays the "racist" card [usually now against the offspring of those who fought to avoid a foreign invasion in the 1940s] and even characterises many of its own supporters as "bigoted", whilst secretly planning to change the ethnic composition of much of Britain.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "The number crunchers have yet to find a way of including Ukip."

    Doesn't that mean the thing is broken?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tim said:

    So we have a segregationist Tory in W.Sussex, and a Kipper Anti Semite in E.Sussex

    @michaelsavage: Ukip campaign going well - East Sussex UKIP election candidate in holocaust storm (From The Argus) http://t.co/WHFc1EBP52

    Shocking that an Anti-semite is in UKIP. We are used to it in Respect and parts of the Labour party, maybe their votes are coming from all over.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    LD

    The telegraph has a story about Farage admitting there may be one or two BNP among his candidates for the locals.

    I can't decide if the refreshing candour outweighs the potential downside, really.
  • nestreetnestreet Posts: 8
    edited April 2013
    Much as I question Farage's suitability for low office, I like his candour.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    @Tim: I'd have thought it more likely that the papers will go to the ECHR and if those laywers I've spoken to (who know more about this areas of the law than I do) are right, they are likely to give the government a bloody nose.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    No doubt HRA lawyers will be all over this but its shows a willingness to tackle the issue

    Changes to the law allow Mrs May to confiscate Britons’ passports if they plan to travel abroad to take part in terror training camps, or carry out other terror-related activities.

    Mrs May said the powers could be used against people whose “actual or suspected” activities had given the security services concern.

    It represents a significant strengthening of the Home Secretary’s powers because previous rules said a British citizen’s passport could only be removed in such circumstances in “very rare cases”.

    It is understood the existing powers have only been used 17 times since 1947. The last time was in 2005.

    Mrs May said: “Passport facilities may be refused to or withdrawn from British nationals who may seek to harm the UK or its allies by travelling on a British passport to, for example, engage in terrorism-related activity or other serious or organised criminal activity.

    The changes come into force with immediate effect because they are made under the Royal Prerogative, which can be exercised by ministers without parliamentary approval.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10018301/New-powers-to-strip-passports-from-British-terror-suspects.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    "Scottish independence: ‘Scotland doesn’t need oil’"

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-scotland-doesn-t-need-oil-1-2909839

    So rUK can have it then?

    And:

    "Scotland would be the eighth wealthiest country in the OECD compared with the UK position at 17th place."

    So bye bye EU rebate too then.....impressive negotiating tactics....

    Unionists do not like to hear the truth, we are supposed to listen to donkeys like Osborne and Alexander telling us they will keep the pound all to themselves , LOL , by the time the YES vote is announced they will be grovelling to have us in a currency zone. Hee Haw Hee Haw.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    taffys said:

    LD

    The telegraph has a story about Farage admitting there may be one or two BNP among his candidates for the locals.

    I can't decide if the refreshing candour outweighs the potential downside, really.

    There are probably people like that in most parties.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AEP on Spain - incredible figures.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100024242/the-great-spanish-nation-can-end-its-crucifixion-at-will-by-leaving-emu/

    "The national rate of unemployed youth is 57.2pc, rising to 70pc in the Canaries.
    This is in spite of mass emigration by Spanish youth.

    El Pais reports that 260,000 young people aged between 16 and 30 left the country last year"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    SeanT said:

    fpt sunil:

    Sadly, today is not the sixtieth anniversary of the announcement of the discovery of the structure of DNA; it is the date of the release of the paper.

    The actual announcement was made in the Eagle pub in Cambridge on February 28th, 1953.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eagle_(pub)

    It's an interesting place (also famous for its RAF bar, where RAF personnel in WWII wrote their names on the ceiling, most of which are still visible). I made a little pilgrimage to the Eagle on the date to commemorate the discovery. And to have a few drinks, of course...

    The Eagle is, also, just across the road from a lovely little church, built by.... King Cnut of the Danes.

    Cambridge is an extraordinary city. One of the most beautiful and remarkable in the world. We under-estimate it, cause it's in our backyard.
    Yes I had a great three years 2004-7 when I lived and worked there!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714

    With Adam's death, I think just 35 MSPs served continuously since 1999....you can add Richard Lochlead who missed few weeks ahead of the Moray by-election (and Mary Scanlon some months between the by-election and the general election):


    Correction: it's 36. I didn't realize 1999 MSP Christine Creech is the Christine Grahame we have now
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    NadineDorriesMP As certain newspapers are now using my Tweets as copy and calling it journalism, I will no longer be responding to people on Twitter #sorry

    What she said now ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,244
    These UKIP allegations about candidates and the Holocaust etc will play into Cameron's hands come election time, he will say they are fine as a protest vote but cannot be trusted when deciding a government, an argument helped by the poll showing 40% of UKIP voters want a Tory government!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    malcolmg said:

    "Scottish independence: ‘Scotland doesn’t need oil’"

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-scotland-doesn-t-need-oil-1-2909839

    So rUK can have it then?

    And:

    "Scotland would be the eighth wealthiest country in the OECD compared with the UK position at 17th place."

    So bye bye EU rebate too then.....impressive negotiating tactics....

    Unionists do not like to hear the truth, we are supposed to listen to donkeys like Osborne and Alexander telling us they will keep the pound all to themselves , LOL , by the time the YES vote is announced they will be grovelling to have us in a currency zone. Hee Haw Hee Haw.
    malc keep the oil and issue your own currency. Nobody here wants to be teamed up with Salmond moaning like hell every time something doesn't go his way with the BoE.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,663
    The reason the Lab vote is more efficient is because Blair realised that one middle class vote in a marginal was worth more to Lab than 10 (or even 100) working class votes in safe seats. That's why the maths are where they are.

    This efficiency started to unravel a bit in 2010 when Con outperformed UNS by 18 seats.

    If EdM moves to the left (or even if he is just perceived to have done so) then he'll start getting back the lost working class votes in safe seats but he'll lose the middle class votes in marginals.

    Result: Lab will underperform UNS significantly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    "Scottish independence: ‘Scotland doesn’t need oil’"

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-scotland-doesn-t-need-oil-1-2909839

    So rUK can have it then?

    And:

    "Scotland would be the eighth wealthiest country in the OECD compared with the UK position at 17th place."

    So bye bye EU rebate too then.....impressive negotiating tactics....

    Unionists do not like to hear the truth, we are supposed to listen to donkeys like Osborne and Alexander telling us they will keep the pound all to themselves , LOL , by the time the YES vote is announced they will be grovelling to have us in a currency zone. Hee Haw Hee Haw.
    malc keep the oil and issue your own currency. Nobody here wants to be teamed up with Salmond moaning like hell every time something doesn't go his way with the BoE.
    We will see Alan, they will come begging when reality sinks in, hopefully we will be able to enjoy a toast to the future. I will keep my options open but will be scary if I have to decide if I take my pension pot in pounds or bawbees, though it may make me a billionaire who knows.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TGOHF said:

    AEP on Spain - incredible figures.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100024242/the-great-spanish-nation-can-end-its-crucifixion-at-will-by-leaving-emu/

    "The national rate of unemployed youth is 57.2pc, rising to 70pc in the Canaries.
    This is in spite of mass emigration by Spanish youth.

    El Pais reports that 260,000 young people aged between 16 and 30 left the country last year"

    6 million unemployed! That's a revolution waiting to happen.

  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    TGOHF said:

    AEP on Spain - incredible figures.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100024242/the-great-spanish-nation-can-end-its-crucifixion-at-will-by-leaving-emu/

    "The national rate of unemployed youth is 57.2pc, rising to 70pc in the Canaries.
    This is in spite of mass emigration by Spanish youth.

    El Pais reports that 260,000 young people aged between 16 and 30 left the country last year"

    6 million unemployed! That's a revolution waiting to happen.

    And when do you think it will start in the UK?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    new thread - apparently
This discussion has been closed.