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The above is based on data from Professor John Curtice on what vote leads LAB and CON require to put them over the threshold of 326 to win an overall majority at GE2015.
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F1: Red Bull continue to whine. Pirelli has modified one tyre (the hard compound) and left the rest unchanged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22290968
Tyres for the next 3 races are:
"In Spain, the hard and medium will be used; in Monaco the soft and super-soft; and in Canada the medium and the super-soft. "
Mostly written the early mini-review of the season to date. I plan to post that early next week on pb2.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-is-crime-in-the-uk-on-the-rise/10102
Almost a master strategy in fact.
Nice interactive graph.
"The number crunchers have yet to find a way of including Ukip."
Be very interesting to see one with a UKIP voteshare. Eventually I presume.
But I'm sure the fact that the House of Lords is unreformed will be enough consolation for the Tories if this happens :-D
It's also very much in lib dems interests to hammer the Cons and Labour. Twas ever thus.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2013/04/ed-miliband-should-listen-to-len-mccluskeys-real-message/
http://www.leftfootforward.org/images/2013/04/Len-McCluskey-graph.png
Sure, the British Crime Survey showed crime rising for much of its early years (it was created in early Thatcher), peaked around 94/95 ish and declined since then.
http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/QB/2013/981.html
Malcolm Blackman, 45, allegedly took advantage of the woman, aged in her 40s, after she passed out drunk in her tent on the steps of St Paul's Cathedral.
In another incident he tied her hands behind her back with cable ties before forcing himself on her, jurors heard.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2314595/Member-hacking-group-Anonymous-UK-raped-woman-Occupy-London-campsite-steps-St-Pauls.html
Whittingdale reacts positively to presses new Leveson proposals. Suspect Cameron will not be far behind. Lab/LD being outflanked. Again.
Fear of crime has increased as actual crime has declined.
*titters*
So I'm afraid there are far worse cases than merely a higher than expected lib dem voteshare.
http://www.cityam.com/blog/every-single-change-newspaper-press-charter
This is feeling very much like angels on pin-heads territory....
A negative GDP figure today – or even a slightly positive one – would have left the Chancellor with little ammunition left to defend himself. Over the past few weeks he’s been battered by the International Monetary Fund, embarrassed by the Excel scandal that’s upended the Reinhart & Rogoff research he used to help justify his austerity policies and disappointed by the fact that the public finances barely recovered at all last year – in underlying terms, at least. Had today’s figure been negative it would have made it far more likely that the IMF would have delivered a withering verdict of the UK economy in its annual survey of the country next month. The Chancellor would have gone into the spending review a weakened figure.
Today’s 0.3% doesn’t change everything but it does remind us that the economy may not be as much of a basket case as many people had assumed.
http://www.edmundconway.com/2013/04/gdp-finally-some-good-news/
I did say in January that I thought there was a good outside chance that growth in this calandar year may well exceed 1%. I think this is very likely now.
The economy is clearly starting to turn and the Coalition are finally addressing the credit issue with their various schemes. Could have been faster if they had bitten the poison capsule of our nationalised banks earlier and this still needs to be done urgently but I think we will see modest growth from here, just possibly picking up at the end of the year.
Will this affect polling? Not yet but Q2 may see the start of a turn.
My tweets are particularly popular amongst sailing nuts and rugby players - since I post about neither, I assume the same is true...
The BCS have done long term trend reports you can find on google, some interesting stuff. I think the BBC did something a while back about how parents are far more restrictive of their children now, despite things being safer than ever.
What a surprise.
Good luck defending that lot Cammie.
"While the United States would like to be able to rely more on its European allies, many experts doubt that even the strongest among them, Britain and France, could carry out their part of another Libya operation now, and certainly not in a few years. Both are struggling to maintain their own nuclear deterrents as well as mobile, modern armed forces. The situation in Britain is so bad that American officials are quietly urging it to drop its expensive nuclear deterrent.
“Either they can be a nuclear power and nothing else or a real military partner,” a senior American official said."
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/23/world/europe/europes-shrinking-military-spending-under-scrutiny.html?_r=0
Indeed, Mr. Corporeal. It's ironic that staying inside and fiddling with gadgets has all the associated virus risks as well as the off-chance of a 43 year old chap pretending to be a 12 year old girl.
Bev.
I'd settle for him just moving away from the centre-right.
Presumably that'll just be a safe hold?
It seems an odd thing for her lawyers to go to court over, but anyway they failed.
Given the history of the 20th Century, you would think that a reduction in militarism in continental Europe would be a cause for celebration.
Bev.
If the subtext of that article is true (that NATO doesn't have a meaningful future), then it's certainly something I celebrate.
Presumably that'll just be a safe hold?"
You would think so, although the trouble with by-elections is that the distinction between Holyrood and Westminster contests can sometimes get lost. The SNP don't hold the equivalent seats at Westminster.
I've no idea if they'll bother standing in the by-election, but they didn't stand in the constituency at the 2011 election. The National Front stood, and got 0.8% of the vote.
http://news.sky.com/story/1082906/boston-suspects-mother-us-took-my-kids
SNP majority in 2011 was 26.9% IIRC Adam first won the FPTP seat (Aberdeen North at the time) in 2003.
In 2012 locals, the 5 wards entirely included in Donside showed 7,155 first prefs for SNP, 5,675 for Lab. There is a 6th ward which is split with Central. Overall it was marginally Labour, but I don't know if its political colours vary within the ward.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/8896281/a-rare-mood-of-unity-descends-on-the-tories/
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4903067/Thatcher-funeral-cost-just-36m-a-THIRD-of-reported-figure.html
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?ie=UTF-8&q=lap-dancing+aberdeen&fb=1&gl=uk&hq=lap-dancing&hnear=0x4884054c1fd77549:0xe8bb05da5cf4c472,Aberdeen,+Aberdeen+City&view=text&ei=V0B5UceMI66d0wXH44GIAw&ved=0CDMQtQM
But the No2AV campaigners are still rightly furious about all the cute kittens that died as a result.
The Bank of England Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) will permit banks access BoE funds to lend to Buy-to-Let Landlords, sometimes disingenuously labelled as "second home owners" by Balls.
FLS will offer funds to small and medium sized businesses (SME), which are defined as companies with an annual turnover less than £25m.
While it is intended to bolster SMEs, it will also help drive the housing sector. The sector has already reaped the rewards of lower borrowing costs from banks.
The average buy-to-let rate has fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August when the FLS was launched, data from Moneyfacts showed. Subsequently, buy–to-let mortgages reached its highest level in four years as buy-to-lending grew 19% last year.
"It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.
"Lend to a landlord – collateral easy to price – and get 10 times that lending back as essentially free funding, then recycle some of that back out again on mortgages or BTL."
It is quite clear that it is the Coalition government's strategy to encourage the private sector to satisfy as much of the unfulfilled housing demand as possible. This is all part of the public to private sector rebalancing objective and seems to be off to a fast start with BTL growth of near 20% last year.
And he is also busy at work on banking sector recaptitalisation and restructuring but this will, of necessity, take time.
In the interim he needs to stimulate lending to the SME sector and to kickstart construction and housebuilding. The BoE FLS scheme is designed to meet both objectives on an interim basis.
What is there to complain of?
Is it raining in Warwickshire?
"It could be a no-brainer," said Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Berenberg Bank.
so very much like its sponsor then.
"a temper tantrum by some powerful people used to having their own way.“
Ironic or not, it has the virtue of being true.
Two beards?
The banks are currently not lending enough because they are reducing their loan books to meet the additional capital adequacy requirements required by the Prudential Regulation Authority division of the Bank of England.
Until the banks are recapitalised by injection of market capital (who will do this?) or by other extraordinary monetary intervention (BoE exchanges mortgage books for 'cash'), this logjam won't be freed.
So the FLS is designed to provide banks with additional and interim funds for lending to UK business and households, thereby supporting growth in the economy.
FLS can be wound down after the banking sector has been restructured and the current capital constraints no longer apply. While it operates it will recover its costs through fees charged by the BoE to the banks. This means it will have no immediate or direct impact on taxpayers: the additional borrowing is funded.
The fact that banks now have funds to lend does not mean that the BTL landlord is subsidised. It just means there is now a supply of credit on commercial terms to meet demand.
On housing benefit, as I too posted earlier, the additional costs of payments to tenants in state owned property will increase government expenses but also increase the asset values of the property held. So this measure should (broadly) be fiscally neutral.
Once state owned multi-occupier property earns market rents and is valued at market prices, it becomes liquid, enabling sale from government to private ownership thereby reducing both local and central government borrowing, all to the benefit of taxpayers and the UK economy as a whole.
So your accusation of a double taxpayer whammy is singularly shammy.
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/327443356282142720
A cursory look at Tuesday's ONS Public Sector Finances bulletin will show that whilst the deficit rose above prior year levels during the middle two quarters of 2012, it fell most rapidly in the fourth quarter.
Now we know that continued deficit reduction has been possible on a quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, the fiscal mandate forecasts (deficit reduction and debt to GDP ratios) will be revised accordingly.
Obviously more time is needed to assimilate the recent information and its impact on medium term performance but the early indications, from the OBR report on the PSF figures, are that the Q1 borrowing figures were overstated (see all the stuff on accruals which I quoted on Wednesday).
The deficit reduction bus is not therefore stationary, Mr. Brooke. Nor too is it speeding. It is therefore safe for you to alight.
Know your places.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22297569
Apparently he's ok now, but the bus is a write-off.
Indeed.....
Meanwhile past lending is being hammered by misselling fines.
New players are nowhere to be seen because the regulatory barriers are very high, even though many companies have more cash than they know what to do with.
'The Tories are back in business':
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100213873/the-tories-are-back-in-business/
http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/2013/04/25/97002-20130425FILWWW00684-la-france-enregistre-32-millions-de-chomeurs-le-record-de-1997-battu.php
OA (Lab VI)
Support: 27 (49)
Oppose: 57 (33)
Net: -30 (+16)
Labour Party should:
Support Strike: 21 (35)
Oppose Strike: 40 (19)
Net: -19 (+16)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ygm9ycbkmq/YG-Archive-Strike-results-230413.pdf
Pick the bones out of that, Ed.....