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Most former PMs and govts would love midterm polling like this – politicalbetting.com

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  • An interesting conversation with Nate Silver (you can skip the poker stuff) about political betting markets...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZMsGjhy5xk
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited August 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    Thread on Scotland's cases:

    I guess everyone will read the figures in their own way, but to me, there's nothing really screaming that schools are solely to blame for where we're at right now.

    If anything I'd be more likely to blame colleges / universities, but they're still shut for the summer...


    https://twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1432420675495632898?s=20

    Yes, the comfort blanket that it was just "return to school" testing is kind of ripped away. If it was about school children why is 20-24 per 100k cases just as high as the 15-19 year olds.

    551 in Hospital just now which is higher than the July peak as well with admissions growing fast.
    With a gulp I'm taking my two daughters for their first jab this afternoon.

    I'm OK with my eldest as she is almost 18 anyway but I confess I'm uneasy about my youngest who has only just turned 16. She is adamant she wants it though.
    Good for her. I feel for your dilemma; you sound like a good dad.
    The thing is she has less idea of the risks than even I do and her main reason is to be the first in her class to have it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    Anti-vax protesters close the new #Brighton covid vaccination centre in Churchill Square for a time
    https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1432583287822864385?s=20
  • HYUFD said:

    Anti-vax protesters close the new #Brighton covid vaccination centre in Churchill Square for a time
    https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1432583287822864385?s=20

    Oh its the fake nurse again.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    Thread on Scotland's cases:

    I guess everyone will read the figures in their own way, but to me, there's nothing really screaming that schools are solely to blame for where we're at right now.

    If anything I'd be more likely to blame colleges / universities, but they're still shut for the summer...


    https://twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1432420675495632898?s=20

    Yes, the comfort blanket that it was just "return to school" testing is kind of ripped away. If it was about school children why is 20-24 per 100k cases just as high as the 15-19 year olds.

    551 in Hospital just now which is higher than the July peak as well with admissions growing fast.
    With a gulp I'm taking my two daughters for their first jab this afternoon.

    I'm OK with my eldest as she is almost 18 anyway but I confess I'm uneasy about my youngest who has only just turned 16. She is adamant she wants it though.
    Good for her. I feel for your dilemma; you sound like a good dad.
    The thing is she has less idea of the risks than even I do and her main reason is to be the first in her class to have it.
    Ah, you have sort of deflated me a bit there. I was being all proud of the younger generation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited August 2021

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited August 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    @NerysHughes I had beautiful handwriting when I was a kid, but now its a disaster. Handwriting skills are just not needed anymore.

    It's a well known fact* that the better educated/cleverer you are the worse your handwriting gets

    *well, that's how I like to self-justify my terrible handwriting!
    Did you hear of the doctor turned kidnapper?

    He had to give it up as nobody could read his ransom notes.

    (With apologies to @Foxy whom I am sure has beautiful handwriting.)
    Back in the v. early 60's when I qualified as a pharmacist a small percentage of the marks in Practical Pharmaceutics (physically making mixtures, suppositories, injections and such) were given for prescription reading. One was interrupted (preparation for life) in the middle of some task, given 20 (IIRC) real prescriptions culled from the files of the NHS and instructed to tell the examiner what you would dispense in each case. It was only a small percentage of the total mark, but one needed to get, again IIRC, 75% right to pass the whole exam.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    I’d do it as 150+60.
  • kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    kjh said:

    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    Thread on Scotland's cases:

    I guess everyone will read the figures in their own way, but to me, there's nothing really screaming that schools are solely to blame for where we're at right now.

    If anything I'd be more likely to blame colleges / universities, but they're still shut for the summer...


    https://twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1432420675495632898?s=20

    Yes, the comfort blanket that it was just "return to school" testing is kind of ripped away. If it was about school children why is 20-24 per 100k cases just as high as the 15-19 year olds.

    551 in Hospital just now which is higher than the July peak as well with admissions growing fast.
    With a gulp I'm taking my two daughters for their first jab this afternoon.

    I'm OK with my eldest as she is almost 18 anyway but I confess I'm uneasy about my youngest who has only just turned 16. She is adamant she wants it though.
    Good for her. I feel for your dilemma; you sound like a good dad.
    The thing is she has less idea of the risks than even I do and her main reason is to be the first in her class to have it.
    Ah, you have sort of deflated me a bit there. I was being all proud of the younger generation.
    I would still be proud of her Stocky and don't view that as a bad thing.

    There simply isn't much of a risk, but the benefits to both society at large and herself too massively outweigh those. That she wants to be the first in her class to do the right thing is a very healthy and encouraging thing in my eyes and not at all a demerit. Good for her!

    Years from now when this is history and her own children are learning about Covid, she'll be able to say that she came forwards for her vaccine as soon as she could. Good for her!
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    None of that was about defending western values, it was always a cold cost/benefit analysis of defending American self-interest.

    Which is why the US went for what seemed the easy target of Afghanistan, rather than the real culprit of Saudi Arabia.
  • ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    I’d do it as 150+60.
    15x14 I'd do as 150+60
    14x15 I'd do as 140+70
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,838
    On topic: Just to 'hats off' myself since otherwise nobody notices - I did post a few times a while back that 'Cons most seats' at the then available 1.8 was the best political bet out there. Ok, shorter now at 1.5, but still, as the header says, solid value. I also agree on the Con majority. That should be odds on. For me around 1.7 so the 2.3 is good.
  • Regardless of one's opinion on the French 'health pass', there's one thing everyone will have to agree on: the effect on vaccination coverage in the country has been absolutely striking.

    https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1432404580382412804?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    @NerysHughes I had beautiful handwriting when I was a kid, but now its a disaster. Handwriting skills are just not needed anymore.

    It's a well known fact* that the better educated/cleverer you are the worse your handwriting gets

    *well, that's how I like to self-justify my terrible handwriting!
    Did you hear of the doctor turned kidnapper?

    He had to give it up as nobody could read his ransom notes.

    (With apologies to @Foxy whom I am sure has beautiful handwriting.)
    Not at all!

    Though the quality of medical handwriting has definitely improved as a sideffect of the feminisation of the medical profession.

    We still have to do medical notes by hand, though prescriptions are now electronic, except outpatients.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,441
    kinabalu said:

    On topic: Just to 'hats off' myself since otherwise nobody notices - I did post a few times a while back that 'Cons most seats' at the then available 1.8 was the best political bet out there. Ok, shorter now at 1.5, but still, as the header says, solid value. I also agree on the Con majority. That should be odds on. For me around 1.7 so the 2.3 is good.

    What is interesting is I am not sure there is a single poster making the opposite case, at least with conviction? So why is the market where it is?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    .
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    What were the Western values (other than anti-communism) that the US was defending in Korea ?
    It was a strategic decision (also mediated by US domestic politics) to defend Korea. Given South Korea was a dictatorship for over three decades after the war, you're stretching the definition of 'western values' rather a lot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    Nigelb said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    What were the Western values (other than anti-communism) that the US was defending in Korea ?
    It was a strategic decision (also mediated by US domestic politics) to defend Korea. Given South Korea was a dictatorship for over three decades after the war, you're stretching the definition of 'western values' rather a lot.
    Non communism and a capitalist market economy, which is one the key western values.

    South Korea was a constitutional democracy in 1948 and has been procedurally a democracy since 1987 and the US still keeps troops there to this day
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    SKS approval has fallen to -39 (-26 with LAB voters)

    Poll: "Do you think Keir Starmer is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?"

    White heavy check mark Well: 20% (-2)
    Cross mark Badly: 59% (-)
    [Net rating: -39]

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 29 Aug (+/- since 2 Aug)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    Yep, but there's often many ways of doing sums, and that's the way he's chosen to do it (perhaps because he's less fluent at dividing by two atm).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    When a weary lol is all one can manage.



  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    When a weary lol is all one can manage.



    It’s Novara. Never knowingly said anything accurate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited August 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    None of that was about defending western values, it was always a cold cost/benefit analysis of defending American self-interest.

    Which is why the US went for what seemed the easy target of Afghanistan, rather than the real culprit of Saudi Arabia.
    Of course it was, if it was not for US support Europe would have been taken over by Stalin and South Korea by North Korea.

    Just because Bin Laden was born in Saudi he did not plan 9/11 from Saudi, he planned it from Afghanistan under Taliban protection.

    Now the Taliban are back in Afghanistan and jihadi militants from IS and the like are also spreading across the country all due to the withdrawal of this weak Biden-Harris administration
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    None of that was about defending western values, it was always a cold cost/benefit analysis of defending American self-interest.

    Which is why the US went for what seemed the easy target of Afghanistan, rather than the real culprit of Saudi Arabia.
    It is also about the willingness of the population in the countries concerned to get involved.

    South Korea was and is extremely committed to not being over-run by the North. Government, military and population are all on board with that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Who could he be talking about.....

    Hello, I'm a Twitter variant hunter. I hop onto GISAID straight after breakfast looking for random lineages in Kyrgyzstan with E484K to shout at Boris for not closing the bloody borders. I post 30-part threads when a new AY sublineage reaches 0.1% in any particular country.

    https://twitter.com/RufusSG
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    None of that was about defending western values, it was always a cold cost/benefit analysis of defending American self-interest.

    Which is why the US went for what seemed the easy target of Afghanistan, rather than the real culprit of Saudi Arabia.
    Of course it was, if it was not for US support Europe would have been taken over by Stalin and South Korea by North Korea.

    Just because Bin Laden was born in Saudi he did not plan 9/11 from Saudi, he planned it from Afghanistan under Taliban protection.

    Now the Taliban are back in Afghanistan and jihadi militants from IS and the like are also spreading across the country all due to the withdrawal of this weak Biden-Harris administration
    The US didn't want Europe taken over by Stalin because that happening was against America's self-interest, not because of American values.

    Saudi has been funding extremist Islam around the globe.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bexit, obvs:

    Like most people in the developed world, Kirsten Gjesdal had long taken for granted her ability to order whatever she needed and then watch the goods arrive, without any thought about the factories, container ships and trucks involved in delivery.

    Not anymore.

    At her kitchen supply store in Brookings, S.D., Ms. Gjesdal has given up stocking place mats, having wearied of telling customers that she can only guess when more will come.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/business/supply-chain-shortages.html

    The unions shut down the port of LA.

    Apparently they deserved more money
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Labour left pushes Keir Starmer to oppose cut to triple lock after '40 years of state pension squeeze'
    https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1432623310643286016?s=20

    LOL if Labour are going to be arguing for 8% for pensioners. Wait for every public sector Union to ask why Labour won’t support them getting 8% too, and for the Tories to question which taxes Labour would raise to pay for everything.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Corbyn and everything related to Corbyn was catastrophic for Labour so its right that he went and that the party is (s l o w l y) cleaning house of the trot entryists.

    The problem isn't Starmer, its the party. Yes serkeir pledged various things he appears not to believe (perhaps all his pledges...). But its wider than him. Part of the party years for the exciting days of ditching dogma for pragmatism. The bulk seems pretty wedded to ideals that the target voters they are supposed to be appealing to long ago ditched. A minority are batshit crazy.

    The gap in British politics is that nobody is talking about the future. Even PM Worzel only talks the future based on its relation to the brexit he promised - enough at least to have people prepared to wait for the benefits of the Brexit to arrive.

    What is Labour's vision for this decade? Unless they get one, they are fucked. Note the pockets of popularity they have - the King in the North is busy building the Manchester of the future (as the city council have since the IRA helpfully kicked the regeneration off). Similar in Liverpool - pride in the city/region, faith in the future, lets go. Its the same card Ben Houchen and his airport are playing.

    The basic problem is that so much of Labour whines about the past and about the unfairness of the present. Which is not going to appeal vs a "the future is now" Tory party even if what they are selling is an illusion. Blair got it - sell hope. Where is Labour's hope?

    There you go - back to top super-duper poster. Just replied so this post is displayed constantly.

    People don't like to be told how shit everything is, they want hope, as you note. Apart from we're going to have to walk everywhere from now on (I paraphrase) - what is the LibDems vision? There is a gap for them right now and I'm all ears.
    All ears and no brain?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021
    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    Because Adam Finn has made it clear that his outlook is now ideological, with his WHO hat on, he believes the rest of the world must be vaccinated before any boosters are given in the UK.

    You only have to see the BS reasons he has given against a booster e.g. it might dent vaccine confidence. Just utter crap.

    US and Europe are doing boosters and kids. The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero. We have bought the doses, we have plenty of supply of Pfizer and AZN. Where as the downside of doing nothing and being wrong is enormous.

    The analogy I would give is going all Govey on a night out and get into lots of drunken nights out resulting in one night stands. You could have lots of unprotected sex, save a few quid on condoms.....nothing might happen, but if you are wrong the cost is very large....or you could have protected sex.....

    And somebody comes along and says well you don't really want to have protected sex, if you don't use condoms, we could send them to Africa, as AIDs is bad there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited August 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    None of that was about defending western values, it was always a cold cost/benefit analysis of defending American self-interest.

    Which is why the US went for what seemed the easy target of Afghanistan, rather than the real culprit of Saudi Arabia.
    Of course it was, if it was not for US support Europe would have been taken over by Stalin and South Korea by North Korea.

    Just because Bin Laden was born in Saudi he did not plan 9/11 from Saudi, he planned it from Afghanistan under Taliban protection.

    Now the Taliban are back in Afghanistan and jihadi militants from IS and the like are also spreading across the country all due to the withdrawal of this weak Biden-Harris administration
    The US didn't want Europe taken over by Stalin because that happening was against America's self-interest, not because of American values.

    Saudi has been funding extremist Islam around the globe.
    Yes, because America's self-interest is in preserving capitalist economies from becoming communist economies which is also a western value and has been since the Cold War.

    At least when Saudi was in the US orbit the US could have had some control over it as it was reliant on the US for weapons etc, now it can get those weapons from Russia Saudi can and will ignore the US.

    Meanwhile Afghanistan will move from a democratic government to a base for jihadi extremists with a government under the Taliban even harder line than the government in Saudi
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    That’s why if Katherine Birbalsingh gets the social mobility gig it will be such a good sign. She is 100% focused on education as a driver of life chances?

    BTW - have you ever looked at Read Easy? It’s a great organisation & though I appreciate hate you don’t have much time with a young family you might find it rewarded to get involved
    Thanks, I hadn't heard of them - they seem an interesting group. I'll take a look into them.

    As for reading in public: unfortunately I have a face for the radio, a voice for the newspapers, and a turn of phrase for the sewer ... ;)
    Read Easy is a one on one adult literacy programme - Ginny did a great job developing a programme that really works
  • Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    Because Adam Finn has made it clear that his outlook is now ideological, with his WHO hat on, he believes the rest of the world must be vaccinated before any boosters are given in the UK.

    You only have to see the BS reasons he has given against a booster e.g. it might dent vaccine confidence. Just utter crap.

    US and Europe are doing boosters and kids. The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero. We have bought the doses, we have plenty of supply of Pfizer and AZN. The downside of doing nothing and being wrong is enormous.
    He should absolutely be fired from his role for what he's had to say.

    Its not the JCVI's job to consider the rest of the world, that's politics and that's not their remit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    edited August 2021

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed a military cooperation deal
    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1916066/saudi-arabia

    MBS knows which way the shamal is blowing. The American Century is definitively over.




    The progenitor of the RSAF (the Hejaz Air Force) was originally founded and staffed by exiled Russians. That's why so many older maps of the Rub-al-Khali use the old Russian/Soviet lat/long system and need some spherical geometry calculations to make them useful.
    Yes, Syria and Iran and then Iraq were already within the Russian orbit, now Saudi has been added too.

    As the Biden administration completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan and moves to isolationism, Russia now dominates the Middle East and China increasingly dominates the Pacific region and is expanding its influence in South Asia.

    Frankly that's not such a bad thing as far as Saudi is concerned.

    Saudi should have been part of George W Bush's "Axis of Evil" and we should have been regarding them as an enemy and not an ally for decades now. They are behind the spread of extremist Wahhabism, they were ultimately behind 9/11, and the way they treat women especially is absolutely atrocious.

    If them cosying up to Russia gets the West to realise that Saudi is not our friend, it is long overdue.
    Given Biden has effectively abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban (who have just banned music and require women to go out with a chaperone which even Saudi has now abolished) and jihadi militants again I doubt Saudi will be bothered at all.

    The weakness of the Biden-Harris administration has shown the US can no longer be relied on as it retreats into itself. Given the US is clearly not willing to defend western values as long as this administration is in office why should the Saudis care less what Biden thinks.

    The US hasn't been willing to defend western values ever. That's why GWB and others responded to 9/11 by ignoring Saudi Arabia who were ultimately behind it, and even ignoring the Taliban and Bin Laden once they retreated into the safe harbour of Pakistan to regroup.

    The US does what is convenient and suits their own interests at that time. Biden is no different to any other US President as far as that is concerned.
    Of course it was, from South Korea when it kept it from the Communists, to the Berlin airlift to keep west Berlin free, to the invasion of Afghanistan to remove Bin Laden and Al Qaeda (given they were based there not Saudi) and of course they then sent US special forces into Pakistan to kill Bin Laden.

    This is the weakest US administration of my lifetime, probably the weakest since WW2 and Russia and China and jihadi militants will fill the gap
    None of that was about defending western values, it was always a cold cost/benefit analysis of defending American self-interest.

    Which is why the US went for what seemed the easy target of Afghanistan, rather than the real culprit of Saudi Arabia.
    It is also about the willingness of the population in the countries concerned to get involved.

    South Korea was and is extremely committed to not being over-run by the North. Government, military and population are all on board with that.
    The was the fundamental reason for it's being in the strategic interest of the US.
    Before full scale war broke out when Kim invaded the south, the KNP (with some US US support) had fought and won a bitter anti insurgency campaign, which killed over 30,000. At that point Korea really was two nations - utterly unlike Vietnam a decade later.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    Because Adam Finn has made it clear that his outlook is now ideological, with his WHO hat on, he believes the rest of the world must be vaccinated before any boosters are given in the UK.

    You only have to see the BS reasons he has given against a booster e.g. it might dent vaccine confidence. Just utter crap.

    US and Europe are doing boosters and kids. The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero. We have bought the doses, we have plenty of supply of Pfizer and AZN. The downside of doing nothing and being wrong is enormous.
    He should absolutely be fired from his role for what he's had to say.

    Its not the JCVI's job to consider the rest of the world, that's politics and that's not their remit.
    You can tell its ideological as well because of the feet dragging like some kid who has been told no to sugary cereals in the supermarket. The "we need more data", when a) the kids data is available and b) for boosters, they know by the time you will get full data on this it will be too late (and we decent data on mix and match strategy).

    Compare to the decisions on vaccine roll out, no pissing about. They looked at what data they had and made a decision.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
  • Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    No, its not. Because our vaccines held back awaiting for boosters won't be sent to the Third World just because our boosters are being held back.

    Which is quite right, because dealing with the Third World etc is a politics issue, not an issue for the JCVI.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    JCVI were also trying to sell "Reaction to COVID vaccines is putting people off getting other vaccines"....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited August 2021

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    The UK using 10-20 million doses of Pfizer we have ordered (that the third world can't easily use), or even our stockpile of AZN is all a drop in the bucket.

    e.g. The Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s biggest vaccine maker, is now producing about 150 million doses a month of its version of the AstraZeneca shot alone.

    There is a massive ramp up in production of all vaccines e.g. I believe there are two new sites for Pfizer in Europe coming online now. Pfizer say they will make 3bn does this year. 3bn...10m is a rounding error on that.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited August 2021

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    I’d do it as 150+60.
    15x14 I'd do as 150+60
    14x15 I'd do as 140+70
    225 - 15

    My college tutor insisted on us working out estimates for everything, even when a calculated formula was half a mile long and involved powers, roots, e, pi, logs and the rest. You could usually get within 5% as long as you tracked roughly how much over or under-estimation was involved at each stage.

    The key point was to avoid punching it into a calculator and not having an idea of what kind of number to expect before you did it.

    Is it hard? Not really, compared to working out the formula in the first place. 'Do I believe this number' is a very useful skill compared to working out if triangles are congruent etc etc, but it really doesn't seem to be taught (unless things have changed).

  • fox327fox327 Posts: 363
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    Another way is 15 x 14 = 15 x (15-1) = 15^2 - 15 = 225 - 15 =210. Most pure mathematicians know off the top of their head that 15 squared is 225.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    fox327 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    Another way is 15 x 14 = 15 x (15-1) = 15^2 - 15 = 225 - 15 =210. Most pure mathematicians know off the top of their head that 15 squared is 225.
    But have they calculated how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    MaxPB said:

    Recent focus groups (Times etc) have said that Johnson is starting to be called a "one trick pony" who's job is now complete

    A one trick pony is infinitely better than a zero trick pony like Starmer. The guy is a loser and Labour need to get rid, he reminds me of Arteta at Arsenal.
    More of a Steve Bruce I think
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    I’d do it as 150+60.
    15x14 I'd do as 150+60
    14x15 I'd do as 140+70
    225 - 15

    My college tutor insisted on us working out estimates for everything, even when a calculated formula was half a mile long and involved powers, roots, e, pi, logs and the rest. You could usually get within 5% as long as you tracked roughly how much over or under-estimation was involved at each stage.

    The key point was to avoid punching it into a calculator and not having an idea of what kind of number to expect before you did it.

    Is it hard? Not really, compared to working out the formula in the first place. 'Do I believe this number' is a very useful skill compared to working out if triangles are congruent etc etc, but it really doesn't seem to be taught (unless things have changed).
    This is the sort of thing I've been trying to teach the little 'un. If he gets a sum wrong in an egregious way, I ask him if it 'seems' correct, and then take him through it.

    It appears it is taught, in a minor way, at KS3 (11-14):
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv3rd2p/revision/2
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Maths is important.

    Philip V of Macedon once launched a sneak attack on a city, only to discover to his chagrin the scaling ladders were a few feet too short and he had to just leave.
  • 15 x 14 = 5 x 3 x 7 x 2 = 10 x 21 = 210
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited August 2021
    fox327 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    Another way is 15 x 14 = 15 x (15-1) = 15^2 - 15 = 225 - 15 =210. Most pure mathematicians know off the top of their head that 15 squared is 225.
    At my first (analyst) job interview a question was what is 7% of 7. He wanted to know how people's minds worked wrt such calcs ie "7x7 and adjust for the dps" or "well 10% of 7 is.."
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    On the subject of vaccine boosters, I thought this comment yesterday from the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices was interesting:

    In the public comment period, vaccine eminence grise Stanley Plotkin argues a 3rd dose of the mRNA vaccines shouldn't be called a booster, it should always have been part of the original vaccine series. Inactivated vaxes benefit from a dose given 4-6 months after first doses.

    https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1432367197415002115

    I don't know whether the expectation would be different for the AZ vaccine.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    15 x 14 = 5 x 3 x 7 x 2 = 10 x 21 = 210

    There are so many ways to do such sums - the important thing is to be able to get the right answer in a reasonable time.

    It's like the old 'how do you measure the height of a tower using a barometer' joke

    http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~steve/astrophysics/webpages/barometer_story.htm
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    For booster shots there is zero downside for the UK. 35m additional doses for developing nations will make no difference to the overall picture and given its all coming from our Pfizer stock the viability of it in developing nations is low as well so we'd actually have to give it to second world countries that have the means to procure it themselves but have failed to do so such as South Africa or Brazil.

    There is simply no reason not to have a 54m booster dose programme with eligibility 6 months after a person's second dose. Why take the risk of a lockdown when the downside risk of doing it is so low.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592

    Maths is important.

    Philip V of Macedon once launched a sneak attack on a city, only to discover to his chagrin the scaling ladders were a few feet too short and he had to just leave.

    Happened at Château Gaillard as well, IIRC
  • 15 x 14 = 5 x 3 x 7 x 2 = 10 x 21 = 210

    There are so many ways to do such sums - the important thing is to be able to get the right answer in a reasonable time.

    It's like the old 'how do you measure the height of a tower using a barometer' joke

    http://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~steve/astrophysics/webpages/barometer_story.htm
    To me intuitively that’s how I did it quickest in my head but that’s probably because in software engineering I’m always trying to break down problems into smaller parts
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    18-24 year olds Does SKS look like a PM in waiting

    May 2020 Yes 32% No 14% (net +18%)

    Aug 2021 Yes 18% No 51% ( net -33%)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/does-keir-starmer-look-like-a-prime-minister-in-waiting?crossBreak=1824
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited August 2021

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    Why take the risk of a lockdown when the downside risk of doing it is so low.
    Do we know that a "booster" is required to stop serious illness or death?

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)

    So people don’t approve of the government but plan to vote for them anyway, because the alternatives are worse?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    Lab Voters only Does SKS look like a PM in waiting

    May 2020 Yes 53% No 17% (net +36%)

    Aug 2021 Yes 28% No 53% ( net -25%)

    Incidentally does better with LD voters than Lab Voters

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/does-keir-starmer-look-like-a-prime-minister-in-waiting?crossBreak=labour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Malmesbury, if that's the siege that springs to mind then short ladders must've been the most minor of the woe that occurred.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 2021

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    Shut the fuck up.

    ETA That's a translation, not an instruction.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    edited August 2021

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)

    So people don’t approve of the government but plan to vote for them anyway, because the alternatives are worse?
    Yep as MaxPB says a one trick pony beats a zero trick pony
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    keep quiet/shut up
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    I wonder how many will be arrested and charged with hate crimes against the trans extremists?
  • Utterly shocked. UTTERLY SHOCKED.

    Police officer caught on camera threatening to 'make something up' to arrest man allowed to keep job

    A police officer caught on camera threatening to 'make something up' to arrest a man has been allowed to keep his job.

    Video footage of Adam Kidger being quizzed by two officers in Accrington, Lancs emerged last April, LancsLive reports.

    During the clip, Mr Kidger can be heard saying: “You're harassing me. What for? I've done nothing wrong.”

    A male police officer then replies: “If you want to f***ing step to me and push your chest out and something like that then fine. I'll lock you up. We'll do that shall we?”

    After Mr Kidger responds by again protesting his innocence, the officer replies: “I'll make something up. Public order, squaring up to a police officer. Shall I do that?”

    The officer then adds: “Who are they going to believe, me or you?”


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/police-officer-caught-camera-threatening-21438074
  • IshmaelZ said:

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    Shut the fuck up.

    ETA That's a translation, not an instruction.
    Charming!
  • MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    keep quiet/shut up
    Cheers.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    Why take the risk of a lockdown when the downside risk of doing it is so low.
    Do we know that a "booster" is required to stop serious illness or death?

    We pretty much know that a booster is needed to boost the effectiveness of the vaccine, especially against Delta.

    You can extrapolate from that various obvious corollaries on infection, hospitalisation and death. The latter two remain a lot less likely than if you're totally unvaccinated but that doesn't mean 'not likely at all.'

    I know various people that have had this recently, a mixture of the unvaccinated, the one-shot lot and the double jabbed. They all describe it as exceedingly unpleasant. A number of them also comment on long-lasting lingering effects, the least serious of which is loss of taste.

    3rd jab is pretty much essential. And 4th and 5th and 6th until the bloody virus finally abates which will probably be around 2023-4.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Recent focus groups (Times etc) have said that Johnson is starting to be called a "one trick pony" who's job is now complete

    A one trick pony is infinitely better than a zero trick pony like Starmer. The guy is a loser and Labour need to get rid, he reminds me of Arteta at Arsenal.
    More of a Steve Bruce I think
    Nah think about it, Arteta has no experience of managing a top team but got the job anyway, Keith was newly elected in 2015 but still got the leadership just 4 years later bypassing all of the 2010 and 2005 intake who have got government or other real experience in politics. Arteta has had 18 months at Arsenal and has yet to figure out what his eleven best players are or even what style of play he wants the team to play. Starmer has got a front bench of non-entities and has got literally no idea how to push a single narrative, there's no strategy and no one in the country can say what Labour currently stands for in the same way no football fans can say what style of play Arsenal have got.

    Steve Bruce is a highly experienced manager, just terrible. He has a very well known style of play, Bruceball, it's just rubbish. I still don't know what Starmer stands for or what Labour's plan for the country is.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, the officer should be defenestrated. It's wretched he's allowed to keep his job.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    fox327 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    The last couple of PMQs were Starmer wins. The Labour leader was on top of his game, witty and forensic.

    If PMQs herald a new dawn then all is not lost. To conference! But even with new, improved Keir, what is to be Labour's retail offer. Like Drakeford and Sturgeon and Macron and Merkel, Labour would have had vaccines and lockdowns but better than Boris's. Support for the economy too. But no-one will be converted to Labour on this sort of managerialist nit-picking. What is Labour for?

    You could equally ask what the Conservative party is for. Both major parties seem to be mainly about keeping the other one out of power. The Tories have done much better in corralling the anti-Labour vote than Labour has done in corralling the anti-Tory vote. Or, put another way, more people prioritise not wanting a Labour government than prioritise not wanting a Tory one. It's been the same story for most of the last 70 years.

    An interesting thing about the 2019 GE was that both leaders promised something different: in Labour's case, Corbyn's vision for the country was very different from the consensus of the last forty years. In Johnson's, it promised an ideas vacuum with little pretence of keeping any promises aside from Brexit (he is Johnson, after all).

    Covid has utterly derailed everything. Both Starmer and Johnson have a great opportunity to unveil a positive vision for the future of the country post-Covid and post-Brexit. The next few months are key (assuming the Covid crisis is declining, that is).

    I don't think either will do it. Johnson because he will bluster; he will unveil big-project ideas that are inconsequential to the problems facing the country. Starmer because I don't think he has the imagination.

    For me, a key thing is literacy and numeracy. Far too many people are functionally illiterate and/or innumerate, and this is an individual and national tragedy. I'd give a lot of time for any leader who makes this a key point in their plans. This sort of thing, rather than bridges, is key to future prosperity.
    Are you suggesting "education, education, education" might be a good slogan?
    Nope.

    Education, as I'm sure Dr Y would agree, is difficult. The easiest measure of progress is exam results, however meaningless some may think they're becoming. Therefore governments concentrate on the ever-increasing (nearly) pass grade and the top end.

    The real problem lies at the bottom. The kids who leave school without the functional skills they require in life and work. The issues of why they are failing will be complex, and only a tiny part will be schooling and formal education.

    I don't know what the answers are - but I do know it's a problem that is being ignored as too difficult.

    Radio 4 did something on illiteracy recently, e.g. : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57025677 . I'd love to see similar on innumeracy. The stories in the short article above are interesting, especially on a forum where everyone is literate (even if there may be some dyslexics amongst us).

    "An estimated nine million adults in the UK have low-level literacy skills. That means they find it hard to do things most people take for granted - such as filling out a job application."

    It's a national scandal.
    Part of the problem may well be the focus on exams that are not well geared to the necessary skills.

    To take your example, surely the best measure of basic literacy might be to write a job application to a job description/person spec and consider how likely that candidate would be to get it.

    But AFAICS you don’t get that on any English Language syllabus.
    In 2005 i was made redundant and I went for the easiest interview I have ever had ...postman over xmas rush ...inc doing a small numeracy test that any ten yr old could have done...something akin to how much does four second class and two first class stams cost. Values were given for each. I was stunned at how few knew how to do so a simple sum. Handwriting on app forms that i saw on a table was shockingly bad with spelling errors a 5 yr old would not make.. and that was 16 yrs ago..
    I suspect its worse now despite the ludicrous exam pass "success"
    From my experience of school leavers who apply for apprenticeships, their written and numeracy skills are very poor despite them having achieved Grade C or now 4 In English & Maths.

    I know its easy to say it was better in my day, but in the early eighties if you got a C or above at O Level in Maths then you were pretty good at maths. If you get a grade 4 now in Maths it does not mean that at all. One of the questions we ask at interview for Apprenticeships is what is 11 x 12. A blank look is normally the answer, and we only interview those with Grade 4 or better in maths.
    I suspect that I agree with that post, although I am always wary of the times table test. I have a maths degree but have never learnt my times tables. Seemed pointless to me so didn't do it. It means I can't give an instant answer, but one a second or two later. I would rather see someone work it out quickly than have learnt it by rote, because you then know they can cope with stuff they haven't memorised. Still they should be able to do 11 x 12 pretty quickly and a non answer is not a good sign for the future.

    Just remember darts players who can do the calculations quickly aren't mathematicians, they just play darts a lot.

    Maybe a 'fact' to give HYUFD when he comes up with his next assumption from a statistic.
    I've never 'learnt' my times tables, but I can work them out in ... well, quickly. Some I just know, others just pop into my head. I always found the seven times table the hardest. The good thing about not learning by rote is that the tricks to calculate them in your head help with larger sums, e.g. 27*36.

    My little 'un is seven, and about to start year 3. He knows the square numbers, the 1,23,4,5, and 10 times tables pretty much off by heart. He can calculate all the rest in his head in a few seconds. He can also do (say) 15x14, but it takes him half a minute or so (15x10 + 10x4 + 5x4). It's been interesting seeing him learn maths, and how he tackles problems.

    Even with the ubiquity of calculators, I think calculating many sums in your head is a useful skill. Estimation, as well.
    A feel for quantities is very useful.
    15x14, btw is much quicker as 140 +70.
    Another way is 15 x 14 = 15 x (15-1) = 15^2 - 15 = 225 - 15 =210. Most pure mathematicians know off the top of their head that 15 squared is 225.
    At my first (analyst) job interview a question was what is 7% of 7. He wanted to know how people's minds worked wrt such calcs ie "7x7 and adjust for the dps" or "well 10% of 7 is.."
    It’s easier to visualise as being 7 x 0.07 = 0.49

    It’s even easier to just say 1 as the answer, without thinking it through properly!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,853
    edited August 2021

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)

    So people don’t approve of the government but plan to vote for them anyway, because the alternatives are worse?
    Situation normal
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    Not jabbing kids over the summer holidays is a massive own goal, as will be if we don't start boosters for oldies extremely sharpish.

    Given that JCVI have been right on the two really big calls they made why are you so convinced they are wrong on this one?
    The downside of the UK doing so is basically zero.
    Isn't the downside "dead unvaccinated people in the Third World for marginal benefit in the UK"?

    I doubt that's a question for the JCVI but to say there's "zero" downside is misplaced.
    Why take the risk of a lockdown when the downside risk of doing it is so low.
    Do we know that a "booster" is required to stop serious illness or death?

    Why take the risk?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    Strictly speaking it should be 'wheesht'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    I wonder how many will be arrested and charged with hate crimes against the trans extremists?
    They do seem to turn a blind eye when the boot is on the other foot....
  • Mr. Eagles, the officer should be defenestrated. It's wretched he's allowed to keep his job.

    #DefundThePolice
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: Just to 'hats off' myself since otherwise nobody notices - I did post a few times a while back that 'Cons most seats' at the then available 1.8 was the best political bet out there. Ok, shorter now at 1.5, but still, as the header says, solid value. I also agree on the Con majority. That should be odds on. For me around 1.7 so the 2.3 is good.

    What is interesting is I am not sure there is a single poster making the opposite case, at least with conviction? So why is the market where it is?
    Largely agree. But: Con majority is no more likely than NOM, in my view. The question of who forms the next government is about: Con 47%, NOM Labour rainbow 47%, Lab 6%. For 326 approx seats Labour can only rely on a black swan.

    Party with most seats is different. Currently Tories hold about 363. Losing the 40+ seats needed to lose the majority is feasible, because they could lose them not only to a Labour fightback but an LD one. If the LDs fight back and gain in the posh seats where they traditionally come second (look out Raab!) and Labour recover their mojo in the north and continue sweeping up in London.

    If Lab gained 60 and LDs 40 from the Tories (recovering to nearly 2010 position) Tories would have 263 seats, and Labour 259. That is within a whisker of being largest party. A Tory collapse to the SNP is Scotland would just see Labour over the line - Labour 259, Tories 258.

    No, I don't think it will happen either; but it requires a concatenation of realistic possibilities whereas Labour 326 seats + looks like science fiction.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited August 2021

    Utterly shocked. UTTERLY SHOCKED.

    Police officer caught on camera threatening to 'make something up' to arrest man allowed to keep job

    A police officer caught on camera threatening to 'make something up' to arrest a man has been allowed to keep his job.

    Video footage of Adam Kidger being quizzed by two officers in Accrington, Lancs emerged last April, LancsLive reports.

    During the clip, Mr Kidger can be heard saying: “You're harassing me. What for? I've done nothing wrong.”

    A male police officer then replies: “If you want to f***ing step to me and push your chest out and something like that then fine. I'll lock you up. We'll do that shall we?”

    After Mr Kidger responds by again protesting his innocence, the officer replies: “I'll make something up. Public order, squaring up to a police officer. Shall I do that?”

    The officer then adds: “Who are they going to believe, me or you?”


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/police-officer-caught-camera-threatening-21438074

    I wonder how often that clip will be played when this twit turns up to give evidence in court, before the jury is asked, ‘who are you going to believe, my client or a self-confessed perjurer and forger?’
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    ydoethur said:

    Utterly shocked. UTTERLY SHOCKED.

    Police officer caught on camera threatening to 'make something up' to arrest man allowed to keep job

    A police officer caught on camera threatening to 'make something up' to arrest a man has been allowed to keep his job.

    Video footage of Adam Kidger being quizzed by two officers in Accrington, Lancs emerged last April, LancsLive reports.

    During the clip, Mr Kidger can be heard saying: “You're harassing me. What for? I've done nothing wrong.”

    A male police officer then replies: “If you want to f***ing step to me and push your chest out and something like that then fine. I'll lock you up. We'll do that shall we?”

    After Mr Kidger responds by again protesting his innocence, the officer replies: “I'll make something up. Public order, squaring up to a police officer. Shall I do that?”

    The officer then adds: “Who are they going to believe, me or you?”


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/police-officer-caught-camera-threatening-21438074

    I wonder how often that clip will be played when this twit turns up to give evidence in court, before the jury is asked, ‘who are you going to believe, my client or a self-confessed perjurer and forger?’
    Wonder how many people already convicted on his evidence, will see this incident as grounds to appeal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    Mr. Eagles, the officer should be defenestrated. It's wretched he's allowed to keep his job.

    #DefundThePolice
    The fact he was given a written warning rather than sacked is hardly reason to pursue a policy not even Corbyn went so far as to support
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, now that's just demented.
  • MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    Strictly speaking it should be 'wheesht'.
    Ah thanks. Probably not going to be a word that I will add to my vocabulary. Honestly I said it out loud a few moments ago and the cat came towards me.

    I'll stick with roasters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    Moderna added a Delta-specific (mRNA1273.617) booster to their dedicated phase 2/3
    https://twitter.com/BertrandBio/status/1432420065568301058

    Of course by the time this gets through trials and into production, there will likely be (as the thread points out) a new variant which will have superseded Delta. But the effort is still worthwhile, IMO, since a booster different from the original vaccine will promote a more diverse immune response.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    edited August 2021

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    A story that could cause the government problems is brewing in Scotland: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58383606

    We have now had 3 weeks of exponential growth in Covid cases since the restrictions came off and the schools went back. Lanarkshire and Glasgow Health Board now have the highest number of cases in Europe. The hospitals are coming under increasing strain. I am not sure how much longer we can continue up here on the basis that everything is going to be fine.

    There is a real risk that England is going to be 3 weeks behind Scotland in this respect because of the different dates for the schools. If they start to take the same path, and there is little evidence of it so far, then there will come a point when restrictions have to come back to protect the NHS. My guess is that that would severely knock government approval ratings.

    I mean this is a nice way. I am really hoping you are as hopelessly wrong as Pagel and co.
    Yes, me too. I have been determined that this was it. That the combination of vaccines, herd immunity and a certain tolerance of the current death rate meant we were back to normal, come what may. But my confidence is being shaken. Vaccines are not proving to be quite the solution we hoped. Few who are vaccinated die of the virus but a significant number still get long Covid and that is going to be an increasing strain on an already stretched medical system.

    And, even in the summer when we are mainly outside, this bloody virus is just not going away.
    The bloody virus is not going to go away, we just need to learn to live with it.

    Part of the point of unlocking in the summer was so that people who've refused the virus get their natural immunity now during the summer. That's happening, that's not a bad thing, that's what the Zero Covidiots (which I know is not you) couldn't get their heads around. So don't get depressed, we're still just learning to live with this.
    There’s still a disconnect in policy terms between the vaccines’ efficacy (or not!) at reducing spread, and ongoing efforts to contain cases. Vaccinated people don’t need to isolate, vaccinated Americans won’t be dissuaded from EU travel etc… As such we’re going to get very high case loads which will cause a lot of disruption to everyday life if the policies remain the same. And worse than that, if the data from Israel is even halfway close to what happens here, quite a lot of strain on hospitals too.

    Personally I think we’ve got another tough winter ahead, not as bad before, but not “normal”. By next winter one assumes the government will have learnt its lesson about being so hesitant with boosters, and further that the pharma companies will have tested and produced variant tweaked boosters before rather than after the northern hemisphere winter.

    Personally I’d say don’t hold your breath for “normality” in 2022, it’s going to be 2023 most likely. And by normality, I mean the threats of big school absences, easy(ish) travel and no spectre of further NPI.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    edited August 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Eagles, the officer should be defenestrated. It's wretched he's allowed to keep his job.

    #DefundThePolice
    The fact he was given a written warning rather than sacked is hardly reason to pursue a policy not even Corbyn went so far as to support
    But why was he not sacked? All other considerations aside, surely what he did amounted to a criminal offence under the Public Order Act.

    Unless of course Mr Kidger had done something wrong.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Remember: Immunological memory consists of antibodies, memory B-cells, memory CD8+ T-cells, and memory CD4+ T-cells. These responses are what give us enduring protection even against newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

    Finally, by examining individuals with pre-existing-immunity following natural infection, researchers were able to gain insights into the possible effects of booster vaccination. In this setting, boosting of pre-existing immunity with mRNA vaccination mainly resulted in a transient benefit to antibody titers with little-to long-term impact on cellular immune memory.

    Antibody decay rates were similar in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and recovered vaccinees, suggesting that an additional vaccine dose will temporarily prolong antibody-mediated protection without fundamentally altering the underlying landscape of SARS-CoV-2 immune memory, which is characterized by durable memory B- and CD4+ T-cells EVEN when antibody responses begin to wane.

    In short, it is NOT all about antibodies! You can find the study here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.23.457229v1


    https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1430161246830088212?s=20
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    On topic: Just to 'hats off' myself since otherwise nobody notices - I did post a few times a while back that 'Cons most seats' at the then available 1.8 was the best political bet out there. Ok, shorter now at 1.5, but still, as the header says, solid value. I also agree on the Con majority. That should be odds on. For me around 1.7 so the 2.3 is good.

    What is interesting is I am not sure there is a single poster making the opposite case, at least with conviction? So why is the market where it is?
    Largely agree. But: Con majority is no more likely than NOM, in my view. The question of who forms the next government is about: Con 47%, NOM Labour rainbow 47%, Lab 6%. For 326 approx seats Labour can only rely on a black swan.

    Party with most seats is different. Currently Tories hold about 363. Losing the 40+ seats needed to lose the majority is feasible, because they could lose them not only to a Labour fightback but an LD one. If the LDs fight back and gain in the posh seats where they traditionally come second (look out Raab!) and Labour recover their mojo in the north and continue sweeping up in London.

    If Lab gained 60 and LDs 40 from the Tories (recovering to nearly 2010 position) Tories would have 263 seats, and Labour 259. That is within a whisker of being largest party. A Tory collapse to the SNP is Scotland would just see Labour over the line - Labour 259, Tories 258.

    No, I don't think it will happen either; but it requires a concatenation of realistic possibilities whereas Labour 326 seats + looks like science fiction.

    My only quibble with that is that "fantasy" is perhaps more apt than "science fiction"
  • Mr. Eagles, now that's just demented.

    It is the worst slogan out there, the policy is more a case of reallocate the funding so the police budget stays the same and the money is used for better training/more body cams.

    I'm just cynical after dealing with the police for the better part of twenty years.

    I'll say it again if you ever ever have contact with the police

    1) Always get representation

    and

    2) Never accept a caution.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)

    So people don’t approve of the government but plan to vote for them anyway, because the alternatives are worse?
    Yep as MaxPB says a one trick pony beats a zero trick pony
    Still beats your boy Corbyn who was just a cheap trick.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)

    So people don’t approve of the government but plan to vote for them anyway, because the alternatives are worse?
    Yep as MaxPB says a one trick pony beats a zero trick pony
    Still beats your boy Corbyn who was just a cheap trick.
    Corbyn wasn’t cheap. Lots of his ideas would have been extremely pricey.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    MARION Millar, the Scottish feminist charged with a hate crime, has been met by crowds of supporters as she arrived for her first court appearance this morning.

    Scores of women chanting “Women won’t wheest” and “I stand with Marion Millar” gathered outside Glasgow Sheriff Court ahead of a preliminary bail hearing.


    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19547978.crowd-cheers-marion-millar-scots-feminst-charged-hate-crime-outside-court/?ref=twtrec

    For those of us whose first language is English what does 'wheest' mean?
    Strictly speaking it should be 'wheesht'.
    Ah thanks. Probably not going to be a word that I will add to my vocabulary. Honestly I said it out loud a few moments ago and the cat came towards me.

    I'll stick with roasters.
    “Haud your wheesht” is barely more polite than STFU in Scotland.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,592
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Eagles, the officer should be defenestrated. It's wretched he's allowed to keep his job.

    #DefundThePolice
    The fact he was given a written warning rather than sacked is hardly reason to pursue a policy not even Corbyn went so far as to support
    But why was he not sacked? All other considerations aside, surely what he did amounted to a criminal offence under the Public Order Act.

    Unless of course Mr Kidger had done something wrong.
    Sounded like an open and shut case for dismissal for bringing the police into disrepute, to me.

    Any legal types care to comment on that?

    Threatening to "fit people up" comes under Misconduct In A Public Office, surely?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243

    YouGov
    @YouGov
    ·
    23m
    Latest government approval rating (29 Aug)

    Approve: 27% (n/c on 23 Aug)
    Disapprove: 50% (n/c)

    So people don’t approve of the government but plan to vote for them anyway, because the alternatives are worse?
    Situation normal
    ... all fucked up
This discussion has been closed.