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I hope you all had as much fun as Michael Gove had this weekend – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 30 in General
I hope you all had as much fun as Michael Gove had this weekend – politicalbetting.com

To be honest I’m cutting Michael Gove some slack, firstly it has been a hell of an eighteen months, secondly he’s getting divorced, speaking from experience they really do hurt, and thirdly I’m so delighted to know that I’m not the worst dancer in the country.

Read the full story here

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,807
    26,476 cases, 48 deaths (no Wales / NI).

    Cases 3k down in England, but Bank holiday so...

    Straw in the wind...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXu4N3vYyuk

    Cliff notes, yes they are seeing double vaxxed break through cases, plenty among the frontline staff although mostly mild, yes some double vaxxed end up in hospital, however all but 1 person in their ICU is not vaxxed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,807
    I can't believe you missed the chance to post this.....

    Micky Flanagan on going "Out Out"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5k8Su_ek2k
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454
    Jeremiah 31:13 refers.

    (1 Samuel 21:11 is not appropriate, for that cabinet minister at least.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    There was a time when people talked of Gove as a future leader. I wrote a thread header on how rubbish he was and @TSE published it with a photo of him dressed as a farmer.

    I wonder what image he would choose now...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516
    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    Carnyx said:

    Jeremiah 31:13 refers.

    (1 Samuel 21:11 is not appropriate, for that cabinet minister at least.)

    I’m fairly sure he’s no virgin.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454
    edited August 30
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jeremiah 31:13 refers.

    (1 Samuel 21:11 is not appropriate, for that cabinet minister at least.)

    I’m fairly sure he’s no virgin.
    Oh sorry, not intended to imply that either weay. My reading is that the virgin is supplementary to the men: invariably a female (maiden) surely.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516
    ydoethur said:

    There was a time when people talked of Gove as a future leader. I wrote a thread header on how rubbish he was and @TSE published it with a photo of him dressed as a farmer.

    I wonder what image he would choose now...

    There were five or six in the Village People so plenty of choice.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025
    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749
    How low can the CDU/CSU go?

    image
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    A lot of UN staff lived in Larchmont or New Rochelle. Further afield, there is Darien and Norwalk, but then you have a longer commute and have to deal with the tax in two states issue.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    Good for you. Did you qualify via family tie?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,646
    ydoethur said:

    There was a time when people talked of Gove as a future leader. I wrote a thread header on how rubbish he was and @TSE published it with a photo of him dressed as a farmer.

    I wonder what image he would choose now...

    Would it be un-PC to suggest, maybe one of the Village People?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,319
    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    I've not really detected that in you, no. You bought a jacuzzi after all. Or at least thought about it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    "Punters clapped as the plane landed safely"

    Are you sure you are not confusing the flight with one from Afghanistan?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025
    edited August 30
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    I've not really detected that in you, no. You bought a jacuzzi after all. Or at least thought about it.
    Thought about it. At least wife did. I vetoed it on grounds of taste and hassle . (Hot tub don't you know. Jacuzzi is very non U.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481

    Looks like he had fun. Good for him.

    Is this something we're supposed to care about or frown upon?

    Some of us were surprised he had allowed himself a night off from the endless machinations to be honest.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,180

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    One of my best pals has spent 15 happy years in the West Village, large apartment, brought up two sons, had an active social life etc. American wife had a nice house in Arizona for getaways mind. Number 1 son is now at uni in Chicago & son 2 will be departing soon I imagine, so they're planning to move to Philly where my pal's business is.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516
    TimT said:

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    A lot of UN staff lived in Larchmont or New Rochelle. Further afield, there is Darien and Norwalk, but then you have a longer commute and have to deal with the tax in two states issue.
    I would like Larchmont.

    But I need to get into Union Square area so apparently Upstate NY is out for trainline reasons.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    edited August 30
    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516
    Stocky said:

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    Good for you. Did you qualify via family tie?
    Job and visa offer…
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707

    26,476 cases, 48 deaths (no Wales / NI).

    Cases 3k down in England, but Bank holiday so...

    Straw in the wind...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXu4N3vYyuk

    Cliff notes, yes they are seeing double vaxxed break through cases, plenty among the frontline staff although mostly mild, yes some double vaxxed end up in hospital, however all but 1 person in their ICU is not vaxxed.

    Interesting that the ICU doctor states that the ICU system is set up to run at near 100% capacity all the time, and when you add 20% from COVID to it, it really strains the system.

    That is the problem with bean counters being in charge of critical infrastructure. Running at 100% may be cost effective and 'efficient'. But no critical infrastructure should be designed to run at 100% in normal times. We need redundancy (in normal times for training, down time, safe experimentation) and, in emergencies, surge capacity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,807
    edited August 30

    TimT said:

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    A lot of UN staff lived in Larchmont or New Rochelle. Further afield, there is Darien and Norwalk, but then you have a longer commute and have to deal with the tax in two states issue.
    I would like Larchmont.

    But I need to get into Union Square area so apparently Upstate NY is out for trainline reasons.
    That's a shame, Mrs U worked in NY for a bit and lived upstate and it was very pleasant. If you work in the right part of the city (and you don't need to be in 5 days a week), the commute isn't actually too bad.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 51,940
    Not one to bear ill-will to others.....but if some of these COVIDidiots caught it I wouldn't be terribly upset:

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/19546595.protests-halt-opening-new-churchill-square-covid-vaccination-centre-brighton/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jeremiah 31:13 refers.

    (1 Samuel 21:11 is not appropriate, for that cabinet minister at least.)

    I’m fairly sure he’s no virgin.
    Oh sorry, not intended to imply that either weay. My reading is that the virgin is supplementary to the men: invariably a female (maiden) surely.
    Edit: wrong word. Complementary/separate is intended.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    UK Local R

    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    Glasgow looking dire on those plague figures.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    UK cases summary

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    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    UK hospitals

    image
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  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    Sums up my feelings. I see greater agility as an economic upside in a rapidly changing world, but whether that upside is greater than the downside of greater transactional costs with the EU, I don't know. I believe in the longer term it will be if, but only if, Britain is governed well. And that is not a given. But I, for one, prefer that we have that option to find out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    UK Deaths

    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,319
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    I've not really detected that in you, no. You bought a jacuzzi after all. Or at least thought about it.
    Thought about it. At least wife did. I vetoed it on grounds of taste and hassle . (Hot tub don't you know. Jacuzzi is very non U.)
    I just fart in the bath.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454
    edited August 30

    Glasgow looking dire on those plague figures.

    Wider Glasgow conurbation too; also the main cities and their peripheries (perhaps Inverness included, it would be subsumed in Highland).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    Carnyx said:

    Glasgow looking dire on those plague figures.

    Wider Glasgow conurbation too; also the main cities and their peripheries (perhaps Inverness included, it would be subsumed in Highland).
    Though the rate of increase seems to be topping out - see the local R numbers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    Carnyx said:

    Jeremiah 31:13 refers.

    (1 Samuel 21:11 is not appropriate, for that cabinet minister at least.)

    Isaiah 28:10, Shirley

    For precept [must be] upon precept, precept upon precept; line upon line, line upon line; here a little, [and] there a little

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    The current random restaurant bot place is in Senegal.

    Not sure about the dish they seem to be serving...


    https://twitter.com/_restaurant_bot/status/1432363002242678785
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,807

    TimT said:

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    A lot of UN staff lived in Larchmont or New Rochelle. Further afield, there is Darien and Norwalk, but then you have a longer commute and have to deal with the tax in two states issue.
    I would like Larchmont.

    But I need to get into Union Square area so apparently Upstate NY is out for trainline reasons.
    That's a shame, Mrs U worked in NY for a bit and lived upstate and it was very pleasant. If you work in the right part of the city (and you don't need to be in 5 days a week), the commute isn't actually too bad.
    I should say very pleasant other than the freezing cold winters and the blasting humid summers....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    "Brexit's effect on the labor market was anything but unpredictable. Brits wanted Europeans who pick their fruit and drive their trucks to go home, and they did."

    As is often the case, admirable clarity from abroad, in this case Fortune magazine. ~AA


    https://fortune.com/2021/08/30/brexit-uk-labor-squeeze-pandemic-ceo-daily/ https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1432357920201641988/photo/1
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454

    Carnyx said:

    Glasgow looking dire on those plague figures.

    Wider Glasgow conurbation too; also the main cities and their peripheries (perhaps Inverness included, it would be subsumed in Highland).
    Though the rate of increase seems to be topping out - see the local R numbers.
    True. But slightly surprising (not complaining). Almost as if people had been raving it up before going back to school (or coming back from hols). The cases started oging up too early to be explained by coming back to school AIUI, unless people were testing in advance?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,807
    Getting the band back together...

    A close aide of Osama bin Laden has returned to his home in Afghanistan after 20 years of US occupation just hours until American forces finish their evacuation from the war-torn country by President Joe Biden's deadline, a video purports to show.

    Amin ul-Haq, a top Al Qaeda arms supplier, returned to his hometown in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province on Monday just over two weeks after the Taliban completed its lightening fast offensive to take over nearly all of the country.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9939989/Al-Qaeda-Afghanistan-Bin-Laden-security-chief-Amin-RETURNS-20-years-pulls-out.html
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,026
    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454
    edited August 30

    The current random restaurant bot place is in Senegal.

    Not sure about the dish they seem to be serving...


    https://twitter.com/_restaurant_bot/status/1432363002242678785

    One does wonder sometimes (from past experience) if the bot can tell the difference between, say, a paella and a Technicolor yawn.

    Edit: is anyone doing a Google image check?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,602
    Carnyx said:

    The current random restaurant bot place is in Senegal.

    Not sure about the dish they seem to be serving...


    https://twitter.com/_restaurant_bot/status/1432363002242678785

    One does wonder sometimes (from past experience) if the bot can tell the difference between, say, a paella and a Technicolor yawn.

    Edit: is anyone doing a Google image check?
    Spookily Isaiah 28:8 refers

    8 For all tables are full of vomit and filthiness, so that there is no place clean.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    :lol: In Brum they using 'Take the jab, Bab' as a slogan to get more peeps vaxxed.

    But...


    Nearly half of Brummies not vaccinated yet - and being poor, black or Asian still biggest barrier

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/nearly-half-brummies-not-vaccinated-21384641?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516

    I actually think the dancing is pretty ok, all things considered.

    FPT, if anyone has ideas:

    So I am moving to New York.

    I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.

    I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.

    I’m at a bit of a loss.

    One of my best pals has spent 15 happy years in the West Village, large apartment, brought up two sons, had an active social life etc. American wife had a nice house in Arizona for getaways mind. Number 1 son is now at uni in Chicago & son 2 will be departing soon I imagine, so they're planning to move to Philly where my pal's business is.
    West Village (and/or Chelsea). Considering it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,793

    :lol: In Brum they using 'Take the jab, Bab' as a slogan to get more peeps vaxxed.

    But...


    Nearly half of Brummies not vaccinated yet - and being poor, black or Asian still biggest barrier

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/nearly-half-brummies-not-vaccinated-21384641?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    It's their decision not to get vaccinated. No-one else is to blame.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    Carnyx said:

    The current random restaurant bot place is in Senegal.

    Not sure about the dish they seem to be serving...


    https://twitter.com/_restaurant_bot/status/1432363002242678785

    One does wonder sometimes (from past experience) if the bot can tell the difference between, say, a paella and a Technicolor yawn.

    Edit: is anyone doing a Google image check?
    The red onions seem to be undigested
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192

    Glasgow looking dire

    Let me just stop you there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,019
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Glasgow looking dire on those plague figures.

    Wider Glasgow conurbation too; also the main cities and their peripheries (perhaps Inverness included, it would be subsumed in Highland).
    Though the rate of increase seems to be topping out - see the local R numbers.
    True. But slightly surprising (not complaining). Almost as if people had been raving it up before going back to school (or coming back from hols). The cases started oging up too early to be explained by coming back to school AIUI, unless people were testing in advance?
    Despite all the things people say about them, quite a number people use the LFTs (and follow up with PCR tests). Given that the schools are saying to test before going back to school, it is quite unsurprising to me that we see an upturn in cases *before* the schools go back. Which we have seen several times, in different parts of the UK.

    As to levelling off - my theory is that because of the way the population interacts (a series of "natural" bubbles with inter-connections), you can get an upturn in infections which exhausts the immediate "possibilities" in the bubbles and their interconnections quite quickly. This doesn't mean that everyone has been infected - but that that the naive exponential model rapidly hits limits.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025
    edited August 30

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    For the pre-return to UK test in Germany you can either use a local provider or a zoom-type service (e.g. Qured) within three days of the return flight.

    You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.

    With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,807
    BREAKING: European Union recommends halting nonessential travel from the U.S. due to coronavirus - WSJ
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    I’m heading for Germany now.

    Watch out for the new electronic registration requirement, recently introduced, within which the Uk is classified as a high risk area. There’s a lot of information it is compulsory for Brits to provide online before going there, and you need to carry a copy of the submitted form with you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    I've not really detected that in you, no. You bought a jacuzzi after all. Or at least thought about it.
    Thought about it. At least wife did. I vetoed it on grounds of taste and hassle . (Hot tub don't you know. Jacuzzi is very non U.)
    I just fart in the bath.
    You may rise to the intensity of a jacuzzi but I doubt you match the stamina.
  • YoungTurkYoungTurk Posts: 158
    edited August 30
    According to the Daily Mail, a 200-strong paramilitary "private army" of ex-service personnel, made up of 16 cells and a "secret leadership command", some of whose members are "obsessed with weapons" (Mandy Rice-Davies might have had something to say about that) and who have discussed violent insurrection, will soon let rip against vaccine centres and the employees who work at them. All new recruits must provide evidence of service in the armed forces, and if they pass vetting they get access to a channel on Telegram. One of them called "John H" is shown in a photograph holding a gun.

    "One senior member said: 'If it comes to an insurgency, the military will become enemy combatants and we'll take them out using dirty tricks. They are identifiable by wearing a uniform. We are not.'"

    "Another member shared photographs among colleagues of vaccine-centre workers and their car registration numbers."


    Just in case readers didn't realise, the Daily Mail helpfully observes that "V4F is reminiscent of the American amateur militia groups that stormed Congress in January".

    "A member called 'Fort UK' says: 'People will drop like flies this winter, that's when we might see UN troops and martial law on our streets. I really think this winter will be the darkest we've known.'

    This prompts a response from Ash Styles: 'It's our duty to attack them – ANY foreign troops on our streets, and they're classed as enemy combatants.'"


    Apparently they're going to meet in Hyde Park on 8 September (next Friday) and march on Parliament wearing service berets.

    That's presumably if Priti doesn't proscribe them by then.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 14,026
    Stocky said:

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    For the pre-return to UK test in Germany you can either use a local provider or a zoom-type service (e.g. Qured) within three days of the return flight.

    You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.

    With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
    As my "home address" would be a hotel in London for a few days after arrival back into the UK they would need to deliver it *before* travel and I'd have to take it with me...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    So.

    I had this crazy thought about California.

    Gavin Newsom gets told on September 8th that it's all looking rather ugly, and he's going to lose the recall election. He goes to Dianne Feinstein, and says "could you resign, please?", and she accedes.

    Could he then appoint himself as Senator, while simultaneously resigning as Governor? And if he did, what would that mean for the recall?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,749

    Stocky said:

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    For the pre-return to UK test in Germany you can either use a local provider or a zoom-type service (e.g. Qured) within three days of the return flight.

    You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.

    With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
    As my "home address" would be a hotel in London for a few days after arrival back into the UK they would need to deliver it *before* travel and I'd have to take it with me...
    I’m surprised you want to come back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504
    YoungTurk said:

    According to the Daily Mail, a 200-strong paramilitary "private army" of ex-service personnel, made up of 16 cells and a "secret leadership command", some of whose members are "obsessed with weapons" (Mandy Rice-Davies might have had something to say about that) and who have discussed violent insurrection, will soon let rip against vaccine centres and the employees who work at them. All new recruits must provide evidence of service in the armed forces, and if they pass vetting they get access to a channel on Telegram. One of them called "John H" is shown in a photograph holding a gun.

    "One senior member said: 'If it comes to an insurgency, the military will become enemy combatants and we'll take them out using dirty tricks. They are identifiable by wearing a uniform. We are not.'"

    "Another member shared photographs among colleagues of vaccine-centre workers and their car registration numbers."


    Just in case readers didn't realise, the Daily Mail helpfully observes that "V4F is reminiscent of the American amateur militia groups that stormed Congress in January".

    "A member called 'Fort UK' says: 'People will drop like flies this winter, that's when we might see UN troops and martial law on our streets. I really think this winter will be the darkest we've known.'

    This prompts a response from Ash Styles: 'It's our duty to attack them – ANY foreign troops on our streets, and they're classed as enemy combatants.'"


    Apparently they're going to meet in Hyde Park on 8 September (next Friday) and march on Parliament wearing service berets.

    That's presumably if Priti doesn't proscribe them by then.

    Some people really are quite mad.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,319
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    I've not really detected that in you, no. You bought a jacuzzi after all. Or at least thought about it.
    Thought about it. At least wife did. I vetoed it on grounds of taste and hassle . (Hot tub don't you know. Jacuzzi is very non U.)
    I just fart in the bath.
    You may rise to the intensity of a jacuzzi but I doubt you match the stamina.
    You'd be surprised, Ian. It's one of the few ways I've got stronger with age.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025

    Stocky said:

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    For the pre-return to UK test in Germany you can either use a local provider or a zoom-type service (e.g. Qured) within three days of the return flight.

    You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.

    With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
    As my "home address" would be a hotel in London for a few days after arrival back into the UK they would need to deliver it *before* travel and I'd have to take it with me...
    Yes. Wouldn't take up much space. When you get back Randox has dedicated drop-box locations all over the country. They email you the next day with your result certification. PCR test of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192
    edited August 30
    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477

    Stocky said:

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    For the pre-return to UK test in Germany you can either use a local provider or a zoom-type service (e.g. Qured) within three days of the return flight.

    You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.

    With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
    As my "home address" would be a hotel in London for a few days after arrival back into the UK they would need to deliver it *before* travel and I'd have to take it with me...
    That’s what I plan to do. I have it with me, I can do the test on the shuttle coming back under the channel, and drop it into the Dropbox at the roadchef by the M20 on the way home. Saves paying for a courier.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Off topic - anyone travelled back from a green country recently? Looks like I am going to Germany in October on business. Reads like Germany are happy to accept my fully vaccinated certificate for entry. On the way back looks like I need to show a negative test arriving back into the UK and then do a further test before the end of day 2.

    In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.

    In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?

    Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...

    For the pre-return to UK test in Germany you can either use a local provider or a zoom-type service (e.g. Qured) within three days of the return flight.

    You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.

    With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
    As my "home address" would be a hotel in London for a few days after arrival back into the UK they would need to deliver it *before* travel and I'd have to take it with me...
    That’s what I plan to do. I have it with me, I can do the test on the shuttle coming back under the channel, and drop it into the Dropbox at the roadchef by the M20 on the way home. Saves paying for a courier.
    Yes, people don't realise that the Day Two test is actually an: immediately on return, Day One or Day Two Test.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
     
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Well drawn up prospectus for the budget there. Send it to Rishi.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 224
    Stocky said:

    @kinabalu FPT

    Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.

    Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.

    Am I a snob?

    “Your mum claps when the plane lands.” has, I am informed, joined “Your da sells Avon.” as a favoured insult amongst Britain’s youth…
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    rcs1000 said:

    So.

    I had this crazy thought about California.

    Gavin Newsom gets told on September 8th that it's all looking rather ugly, and he's going to lose the recall election. He goes to Dianne Feinstein, and says "could you resign, please?", and she accedes.

    Could he then appoint himself as Senator, while simultaneously resigning as Governor? And if he did, what would that mean for the recall?

    According to ballotpedia, the Governor of California cannot hold any other public office. I think that precludes the above situation, in that, no matter how quickly he resigns after appointing himself, he'd be holding two offices the moment he pronounced himself Senator.

    Unless ... he can pronounce that he will succeed Feinstein as Senator on some prescribed future date.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    rcs1000 said:

    So.

    I had this crazy thought about California.

    Gavin Newsom gets told on September 8th that it's all looking rather ugly, and he's going to lose the recall election. He goes to Dianne Feinstein, and says "could you resign, please?", and she accedes.

    Could he then appoint himself as Senator, while simultaneously resigning as Governor? And if he did, what would that mean for the recall?

    In general the "What if Feinstein pegs it after Newsom loses the recall election" scenario is not being discussed enough.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Excellent.

    My only quibble is that investment in training doesn't always need to be done via courses. But I don't see another way to handle that.

    Somehow working towards phasing out Employers NI so that businesses aren't punished for hiring staff and paying them more would be a good long-term ambition. NI can be dodged by hiring multiple part time staff to do the same job, instead of one person on a good salary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    Even if you are right that it proves a negative you are out by a factor of at least 10.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    I've often been on planes where the passengers clapped on landing. It just reflects their age and nationality. Italians are most likely to applaud in my experience.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025
    I've just backed Fernandes (25/1) (BF sp) and Calvert-Lewis (16/1) (Bet 365) for Premiership Top Scorer. Both e/w 1,2,3,4.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,104
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So.

    I had this crazy thought about California.

    Gavin Newsom gets told on September 8th that it's all looking rather ugly, and he's going to lose the recall election. He goes to Dianne Feinstein, and says "could you resign, please?", and she accedes.

    Could he then appoint himself as Senator, while simultaneously resigning as Governor? And if he did, what would that mean for the recall?

    In general the "What if Feinstein pegs it after Newsom loses the recall election" scenario is not being discussed enough.
    The Democrats lose control of the senate.

    It’s not really requiring of much discussion...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,481
    rcs1000 said:

    YoungTurk said:

    According to the Daily Mail, a 200-strong paramilitary "private army" of ex-service personnel, made up of 16 cells and a "secret leadership command", some of whose members are "obsessed with weapons" (Mandy Rice-Davies might have had something to say about that) and who have discussed violent insurrection, will soon let rip against vaccine centres and the employees who work at them. All new recruits must provide evidence of service in the armed forces, and if they pass vetting they get access to a channel on Telegram. One of them called "John H" is shown in a photograph holding a gun.

    "One senior member said: 'If it comes to an insurgency, the military will become enemy combatants and we'll take them out using dirty tricks. They are identifiable by wearing a uniform. We are not.'"

    "Another member shared photographs among colleagues of vaccine-centre workers and their car registration numbers."


    Just in case readers didn't realise, the Daily Mail helpfully observes that "V4F is reminiscent of the American amateur militia groups that stormed Congress in January".

    "A member called 'Fort UK' says: 'People will drop like flies this winter, that's when we might see UN troops and martial law on our streets. I really think this winter will be the darkest we've known.'

    This prompts a response from Ash Styles: 'It's our duty to attack them – ANY foreign troops on our streets, and they're classed as enemy combatants.'"


    Apparently they're going to meet in Hyde Park on 8 September (next Friday) and march on Parliament wearing service berets.

    That's presumably if Priti doesn't proscribe them by then.

    Some people really are quite mad.
    Mad but dangerous.

    Although one wonders why they have waited until 90% of the population have been vaccinated before deciding to got totally bonkers and starting to plan to attack vaccine centres?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    geoffw said:

    I've often been on planes where the passengers clapped on landing. It just reflects their age and nationality. Italians are most likely to applaud in my experience.

    I would be reluctant to get on a plane if I knew the passengers thought it necessary to clap s successful landing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,454
    edited August 30
    TimT said:

    Carnyx said:

    The current random restaurant bot place is in Senegal.

    Not sure about the dish they seem to be serving...


    https://twitter.com/_restaurant_bot/status/1432363002242678785

    One does wonder sometimes (from past experience) if the bot can tell the difference between, say, a paella and a Technicolor yawn.

    Edit: is anyone doing a Google image check?
    The red onions seem to be undigested
    They're not very digestible when raw anyway. But I wasn't saying that the meal on offer was such a yawn - just that I am not 100% certain that this is actually a meal, before or after going down, or something else completely. Certainly I can't work out what the, erm, serving platter is?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    In absolute terms, not relative terms.
    Though of course I contend there will be a relative difference between EU and U.K. growth paths.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    YoungTurk said:

    According to the Daily Mail, a 200-strong paramilitary "private army" of ex-service personnel, made up of 16 cells and a "secret leadership command", some of whose members are "obsessed with weapons" (Mandy Rice-Davies might have had something to say about that) and who have discussed violent insurrection, will soon let rip against vaccine centres and the employees who work at them. All new recruits must provide evidence of service in the armed forces, and if they pass vetting they get access to a channel on Telegram. One of them called "John H" is shown in a photograph holding a gun.

    "One senior member said: 'If it comes to an insurgency, the military will become enemy combatants and we'll take them out using dirty tricks. They are identifiable by wearing a uniform. We are not.'"

    "Another member shared photographs among colleagues of vaccine-centre workers and their car registration numbers."


    Just in case readers didn't realise, the Daily Mail helpfully observes that "V4F is reminiscent of the American amateur militia groups that stormed Congress in January".

    "A member called 'Fort UK' says: 'People will drop like flies this winter, that's when we might see UN troops and martial law on our streets. I really think this winter will be the darkest we've known.'

    This prompts a response from Ash Styles: 'It's our duty to attack them – ANY foreign troops on our streets, and they're classed as enemy combatants.'"


    Apparently they're going to meet in Hyde Park on 8 September (next Friday) and march on Parliament wearing service berets.

    That's presumably if Priti doesn't proscribe them by then.

    Priti shouldn't proscribe them by then.

    They should absolutely be free to march - and MI5 etc should be free to infiltrate, monitor, record and track everyone who chooses to march.

    If proscriptions are needed, it should be done after the march, once they've shown themselves.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    kjh said:

    geoffw said:

    I've often been on planes where the passengers clapped on landing. It just reflects their age and nationality. Italians are most likely to applaud in my experience.

    I would be reluctant to get on a plane if I knew the passengers thought it necessary to clap s successful landing.
    How would you know beforehand?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,504

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    Sure: but we were also growing faster than the EU before Brexit too. So we need to measure ourselves relative to that baseline, rather than to general EU growth.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,192
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    Sure: but we were also growing faster than the EU before Brexit too. So we need to measure ourselves relative to that baseline, rather than to general EU growth.
    This is going to keep economists in well paid (if not hugely productive) employment for years, decades even.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    In absolute terms, not relative terms.
    Though of course I contend there will be a relative difference between EU and U.K. growth paths.
    If EU membership was worth 0.5% better annual compound growth in absolute terms then shouldn't we also see that in EU versus non-EU relative growth figures from 1993 onwards already?

    Western EU growth figures have been so awful since 1993, that are you seriously suggesting that without the EU they would have been in absolute terms even worse by 0.5% per annum? Or is there something unique about Brexit Britain to have that impact?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,446
    Sir Keir neck & neck with Boris on disapprovals

    Keir Starmer Approval Rating (29 Aug):

    Approve: 23% (–)
    Disapprove: 40% (-1)
    Net: -17% (+1)

    Second lowest net approval rating for Starmer that we have recorded.

    Changes +/- 23 Aug

    Boris Johnson Approval Rating (29 Aug):

    Approve: 38% (-1)
    Disapprove: 40% (-5)
    Net: -2% (+4)

    Changes +/- 23 Aug

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    geoffw said:

    kjh said:

    geoffw said:

    I've often been on planes where the passengers clapped on landing. It just reflects their age and nationality. Italians are most likely to applaud in my experience.

    I would be reluctant to get on a plane if I knew the passengers thought it necessary to clap s successful landing.
    How would you know beforehand?

    I wouldn't that is why I said if. I have sadly also experienced it. I wondered if the other passengers knew the pilot and it was deserved.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,516

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    In absolute terms, not relative terms.
    Though of course I contend there will be a relative difference between EU and U.K. growth paths.
    If EU membership was worth 0.5% better annual compound growth in absolute terms then shouldn't we also see that in EU versus non-EU relative growth figures from 1993 onwards already?

    Western EU growth figures have been so awful since 1993, that are you seriously suggesting that without the EU they would have been in absolute terms even worse by 0.5% per annum? Or is there something unique about Brexit Britain to have that impact?
    I mean, against what?

    I am suggesting that Britain’s growth trajectory, ceteris paribas, is now 0.5% worse.

    That the EU is slower growing than East Asia or the USA is not especially relevant to that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,207
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    Sure: but we were also growing faster than the EU before Brexit too. So we need to measure ourselves relative to that baseline, rather than to general EU growth.
    Not necessarily. The EU is considerably behind us per capita so if they sort themselves out they should have room to 'catch up' with us and have faster growth than we can. Just because they've done badly in the past, is no guarantee they'll continue to do badly.

    I expect you are right that we'll continue to grow faster than the EU, hence my bet earlier today with Gardenwalker on this subject, but either option is at least theoretically possible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,239
    edited August 30
    kjh said:

    geoffw said:

    I've often been on planes where the passengers clapped on landing. It just reflects their age and nationality. Italians are most likely to applaud in my experience.

    I would be reluctant to get on a plane if I knew the passengers thought it necessary to clap s successful landing.
    My wife and I have flown extensively world wide over the last 20 years and clapping on landing is remarkably common in our experience
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morning all.

    Re Brexit and economic growth.

    We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.

    We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.

    It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.

    To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.

    I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.

    To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.

    To me, this is consistent with my repeatedly stated view that the economic effects of Brexit one way or another are going to be lost in the noise. I was saying that long before Covid pumped up the volume (as Govey would no doubt say) to a deafening roar but it is even clearer now.

    Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.

    Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:

    * super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
    * Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
    *Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
    * An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
    * Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
    * Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
    * The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
    * Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
    * An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
    Agree with all that, with possible exception of using income tax to fund social care (although yours might be most politically feasible solution).

    Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.

    I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
    I know we have a bet already, but I simply think there's no potential chance that EU membership is worth 0.5% in "lost" growth per annum.

    Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.

    If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
    Sure: but we were also growing faster than the EU before Brexit too. So we need to measure ourselves relative to that baseline, rather than to general EU growth.
    Tricky. The way to do it imo is to use the OECD's measure of potential output for several years before we brexited and then again after, say, 4 or 5 years. That would standardise for any conjunctural differences between economies.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    isam said:

    Sir Keir neck & neck with Boris on disapprovals

    Keir Starmer Approval Rating (29 Aug):

    Approve: 23% (–)
    Disapprove: 40% (-1)
    Net: -17% (+1)

    Second lowest net approval rating for Starmer that we have recorded.

    Changes +/- 23 Aug

    Boris Johnson Approval Rating (29 Aug):

    Approve: 38% (-1)
    Disapprove: 40% (-5)
    Net: -2% (+4)

    Changes +/- 23 Aug

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    Boris has Brexit to be unpopular for with 48% of the population.

    What has Skyr ever done to earn such opprobrium?
This discussion has been closed.