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I hope you all had as much fun as Michael Gove had this weekend – politicalbetting.com
I hope you all had as much fun as Michael Gove had this weekend – politicalbetting.com
To be honest I’m cutting Michael Gove some slack, firstly it has been a hell of an eighteen months, secondly he’s getting divorced, speaking from experience they really do hurt, and thirdly I’m so delighted to know that I’m not the worst dancer in the country.
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Cases 3k down in England, but Bank holiday so...
Straw in the wind...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXu4N3vYyuk
Cliff notes, yes they are seeing double vaxxed break through cases, plenty among the frontline staff although mostly mild, yes some double vaxxed end up in hospital, however all but 1 person in their ICU is not vaxxed.
Micky Flanagan on going "Out Out"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5k8Su_ek2k
(1 Samuel 21:11 is not appropriate, for that cabinet minister at least.)
I wonder what image he would choose now...
FPT, if anyone has ideas:
So I am moving to New York.
I am currently agonising about where to live and where to send the nearly 7 yo girl to school.
I’m not sure I can be arsed with the Upper West Side; Park Slope seems like a cliche; the Long Island commuter belt seems as boring as Buckinghamshire; Summit NJ et al are infested with Republicans.
I’m at a bit of a loss.
Is this something we're supposed to care about or frown upon?
Yes, been gadding about. I look at PB while away but cannot post on my phone.
Just back from Greece. Flights were very different from Leon's posh BA to Heathrow effort. Tui charter from Stansted. Punters clapped as the plane landed safely. My word.
Am I a snob?
Are you sure you are not confusing the flight with one from Afghanistan?
But I need to get into Union Square area so apparently Upstate NY is out for trainline reasons.
Re Brexit and economic growth.
We don't know. Just as figures a year ago were completely skewed by the pandemic, so are the current ones as we bounce back. We also have to remember the UK was hit harder in terms of initial impact that the continent, because we had a much greater service component to our economy.
We will only really be able to get a handle on what the economic consequences are two or three years after Coronavirus has disappeared, and maybe not even then. Because the reality is that over short periods of time (one to five years), the economic cycle is going to be a much bigger driver of year-to-year performance than the impact (positive or negative) of Brexit.
It is also important to remember that - largely because of demographics - the UK should be inherently higher growth than the EU and the Eurozone. We don't have nearly as bad a dependency ratio as the Eurozone in general, and Italy or Greece in particular. This helped us grow faster than them before Brexit, and it should boost us on the far side.
To me the question of change in economic growth is: will the increase in flexibility that the UK government gets be greater than the added frictional costs of transacting with our neighbour? We do not know the answer now, and it might take decades before we're truly able to divine the answer.
I'm personally somewhat doubtful that Brexit will lead to structurally higher wages: ultimately, (a) we're all going to get paid relative to our global productivity in the long run, and (b) Britain's wage share as a percent of GDP is in line with most other G7 countries (and EU countries tend to score higher here than the US, Japan or Singapore anyway). Where I do think there will be a benefit for most lower income Brits is that it will cause less of a crush for scarce resources like housing, and that should feed through into lower rents and house prices.
To me, Brexit was a political choice not an economic one. I think government is best, when the people doing the governing are near to (and answerable to) the people. I think it leads to better, quicker decisions.
That is the problem with bean counters being in charge of critical infrastructure. Running at 100% may be cost effective and 'efficient'. But no critical infrastructure should be designed to run at 100% in normal times. We need redundancy (in normal times for training, down time, safe experimentation) and, in emergencies, surge capacity.
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/19546595.protests-halt-opening-new-churchill-square-covid-vaccination-centre-brighton/
For precept [must be] upon precept, precept upon precept; line upon line, line upon line; here a little, [and] there a little
Not sure about the dish they seem to be serving...
https://twitter.com/_restaurant_bot/status/1432363002242678785
As is often the case, admirable clarity from abroad, in this case Fortune magazine. ~AA
https://fortune.com/2021/08/30/brexit-uk-labor-squeeze-pandemic-ceo-daily/ https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1432357920201641988/photo/1
A close aide of Osama bin Laden has returned to his home in Afghanistan after 20 years of US occupation just hours until American forces finish their evacuation from the war-torn country by President Joe Biden's deadline, a video purports to show.
Amin ul-Haq, a top Al Qaeda arms supplier, returned to his hometown in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province on Monday just over two weeks after the Taliban completed its lightening fast offensive to take over nearly all of the country.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9939989/Al-Qaeda-Afghanistan-Bin-Laden-security-chief-Amin-RETURNS-20-years-pulls-out.html
In Germany its simples. Can see various clinics near either the exhibition centre or likely hotel. €25 for rapid antigen, pretty much turn up when you want, result in 20 minutes by email.
In London (as there for a few days after Germany) there seems to be a lot of providers and not a lot of book for an immediate test like I can see in Germany. As an example what is the point of a "walk-up" test centre in arrivals or at Paddington that you can't book?
Yep. We're best in the world aren't we...
Edit: is anyone doing a Google image check?
8 For all tables are full of vomit and filthiness, so that there is no place clean.
But...
Nearly half of Brummies not vaccinated yet - and being poor, black or Asian still biggest barrier
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/nearly-half-brummies-not-vaccinated-21384641?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
As to levelling off - my theory is that because of the way the population interacts (a series of "natural" bubbles with inter-connections), you can get an upturn in infections which exhausts the immediate "possibilities" in the bubbles and their interconnections quite quickly. This doesn't mean that everyone has been infected - but that that the naive exponential model rapidly hits limits.
You also need to complete a UK Passenger Locator Form (PLF) within 48 hrs of return to UK.
With regard to the Day 2 test when you get back, we use Randox at £43. Order before you go, keep evidence of the order to prove you have booked and paid for it (the UK PLF will ask), and Randox will deliver test to your home address for you to use on your return.
Watch out for the new electronic registration requirement, recently introduced, within which the Uk is classified as a high risk area. There’s a lot of information it is compulsory for Brits to provide online before going there, and you need to carry a copy of the submitted form with you.
"One senior member said: 'If it comes to an insurgency, the military will become enemy combatants and we'll take them out using dirty tricks. They are identifiable by wearing a uniform. We are not.'"
"Another member shared photographs among colleagues of vaccine-centre workers and their car registration numbers."
Just in case readers didn't realise, the Daily Mail helpfully observes that "V4F is reminiscent of the American amateur militia groups that stormed Congress in January".
"A member called 'Fort UK' says: 'People will drop like flies this winter, that's when we might see UN troops and martial law on our streets. I really think this winter will be the darkest we've known.'
This prompts a response from Ash Styles: 'It's our duty to attack them – ANY foreign troops on our streets, and they're classed as enemy combatants.'"
Apparently they're going to meet in Hyde Park on 8 September (next Friday) and march on Parliament wearing service berets.
That's presumably if Priti doesn't proscribe them by then.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1432372587712090117?s=19
I had this crazy thought about California.
Gavin Newsom gets told on September 8th that it's all looking rather ugly, and he's going to lose the recall election. He goes to Dianne Feinstein, and says "could you resign, please?", and she accedes.
Could he then appoint himself as Senator, while simultaneously resigning as Governor? And if he did, what would that mean for the recall?
Whether the relatively trivial differences are on the upside or the down very much depends on whether the government of the day seizes the opportunities and takes all reasonable steps to mitigate the undoubted downsides. The jury is out on that, government competence is not a given, but those who claim that this was some sort of economic disaster surely have very little credibility left and even that will dissipate over the next few years.
Rather than arguing about a decision already taken it would be far more productive to focus on what steps we need to take as a nation to maximise our potential. I would like to see:
* super reliefs in corporation tax giving more than 100% relief to investments made in the next 5 years, arguably offset but an increase in the "normal" rate of CT.
* Super reliefs to companies who invest in approved training courses on the same basis.
*Movements away from the excessive taxation of bricks to give shops more of a chance with competing with online retail.
* An internet tax on goods and services provided through the internet to increase the contribution of the likes of Amazon.
* Serious steps to reduce or reverse the long term negative effects of student debt.
* Positive encouragement on our tertiary educational institutions to work with local employers ("local" being defined by the nature of the institution) to identify what skills and training they anticipate actually needing.
* The simplification and integration of our tax system by removing the financial incentives to adopt one business model over another and to incorporate NI into IT.
* Positive steps to encourage saving and reduce consumer debt.
* An increase in IT to fund social care properly.
Unless ... he can pronounce that he will succeed Feinstein as Senator on some prescribed future date.
Only bit I disagree with i main contention that Brexit - certainly this Brexit - is economically neutral.
I reckon it’s worth about 0.5% per annum in lost growth (which compounds to about 5% after a decade).
My only quibble is that investment in training doesn't always need to be done via courses. But I don't see another way to handle that.
Somehow working towards phasing out Employers NI so that businesses aren't punished for hiring staff and paying them more would be a good long-term ambition. NI can be dodged by hiring multiple part time staff to do the same job, instead of one person on a good salary.
Put simply EU nations aren't (and haven't for a long time) growing in real terms substantially enough for there to be a 0.5% premium in the growth there to be lost in the first place.
If you look at growth in EU versus non-EU western developed nations since 1993, EU nations have actually gone backwards not forwards in growth. They've certainly not gone 0.5% better per annum compounded.
You would too if you flew Alitalia.
It’s not really requiring of much discussion...
Although one wonders why they have waited until 90% of the population have been vaccinated before deciding to got totally bonkers and starting to plan to attack vaccine centres?
Though of course I contend there will be a relative difference between EU and U.K. growth paths.
They should absolutely be free to march - and MI5 etc should be free to infiltrate, monitor, record and track everyone who chooses to march.
If proscriptions are needed, it should be done after the march, once they've shown themselves.
Western EU growth figures have been so awful since 1993, that are you seriously suggesting that without the EU they would have been in absolute terms even worse by 0.5% per annum? Or is there something unique about Brexit Britain to have that impact?
Keir Starmer Approval Rating (29 Aug):
Approve: 23% (–)
Disapprove: 40% (-1)
Net: -17% (+1)
Second lowest net approval rating for Starmer that we have recorded.
Changes +/- 23 Aug
Boris Johnson Approval Rating (29 Aug):
Approve: 38% (-1)
Disapprove: 40% (-5)
Net: -2% (+4)
Changes +/- 23 Aug
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
I am suggesting that Britain’s growth trajectory, ceteris paribas, is now 0.5% worse.
That the EU is slower growing than East Asia or the USA is not especially relevant to that.
I expect you are right that we'll continue to grow faster than the EU, hence my bet earlier today with Gardenwalker on this subject, but either option is at least theoretically possible.
The polls never change.
What has Skyr ever done to earn such opprobrium?