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S Times: Raab told to return on the Friday – but got back early Monday – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,162
edited August 2021 in General
S Times: Raab told to return on the Friday – but got back early Monday – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Dominic Raab was told by Downing Street to return home on Friday 13 August as Afghanistan slipped into chaos. Why did the foreign secretary not fly in until the small hours of Monday morning? Because Boris Johnson said he could stay on holiday… https://t.co/BWdXw9oPjY

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited August 2021
    Primus inter pares.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hundred final is going to be incredibly one sided if not cafeful.

    I am not on the iSAGE sports sub-committee for nothing....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    But not OnlyFans....
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    If Johnson is too soft to insist he came home, he’s too soft to sack him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    But not OnlyFans....
    In my dayjob I have a report on Onlyfans to read.

    Honestly heading up a regulatory affairs department of a financial services institution is never boring.

    May also have to read up on this, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Dirty Leeds are absolute shits for this.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/21/exclusive-europes-top-clubs-including-arsenal-man-city-bank/

    This is going to be the new Football Index.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    edited August 2021
    All this Raab stuff seems kind of a side show? It's hard to get terribly excited about it...

    Now if he'd been on holiday with a lover while the wife and kids had been left at home and it was all captured on the hotel CCTV...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Fairliered said:

    If Johnson is too soft to insist he came home, he’s too soft to sack him.

    The counter briefing from Raab seems to be "If you sack me, BoZo, I will bury you..."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    edited August 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    But not OnlyFans....
    In my dayjob I have a report on Onlyfans to read.

    Honestly heading up a regulatory affairs department of a financial services institution is never boring.

    May also have to read up on this, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Dirty Leeds are absolute shits for this.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/21/exclusive-europes-top-clubs-including-arsenal-man-city-bank/

    This is going to be the new Football Index.
    I remember seeing that a while ago and thinking that's even more nuts than Football Index.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    MrEd said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    that will passed through to British consumers by higher grocery bills, and will disadvantage British exporters.

    No shit.
    All companies across the world are facing problems in delivery. It has cropped up time and time again on company results calls. Nobody has called out the U.K. (if they are global) as a specific problem.
    I think the UK has a particular transitional issue right now - historically a fair portion of drivers on British roads were from the EU. (Indeed, the UK-EU markets were very integrated: a driver might do a Devon to Birmingham delivery, then a Birmingham to Rotterdam one.) With proper Brexit, this has meant that drivers basically had to choose the EU market on the UK one, and the vast majority chose the EU one. And this led to a temporary reduction in the number of people working the UK market.

    Under normal circumstances, this would have been no big deal. People would have gone through training courses, got HGV licenses, etc.

    But with Covid, we've had 18 months of practically no new HGV licenses being issued. Which has meant a transitional issue has led to higher freight rates for British businesses. Not enough to cause massive problems, but enough that people are scrabbling where they didn't previously need to scrabble.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    I am glad Raab had his holiday, like millions of others he deserved it. The world did not stop whilst he was away and nor should it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Wondering if Dominic Raab has now been told to "begin the process of resigning" on Monday...

    https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1429145718497980417
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    But not OnlyFans....
    In my dayjob I have a report on Onlyfans to read.

    Honestly heading up a regulatory affairs department of a financial services institution is never boring.

    May also have to read up on this, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Dirty Leeds are absolute shits for this.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/21/exclusive-europes-top-clubs-including-arsenal-man-city-bank/

    This is going to be the new Football Index.
    I remember seeing that a while ago and thinking that's even more nuts than Football Index.
    The Athletic have also done a piece on it as well.

    https://theathletic.com/2774492/2021/08/18/investigation-socios-fan-tokens-what-they-really-are-and-how-they-work/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    squareroot2 said:

    I am glad Raab had his holiday, like millions of others he deserved it. The world did not stop whilst he was away and nor should it.

    Well, we can be sure the world did not stop while he was away. Certainly the Taliban did not stop.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    squareroot2 said:

    I am glad Raab had his holiday, like millions of others he deserved it. The world did not stop whilst he was away and nor should it.

    Working remotely seems to have gone back out of fashion!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    I'm glad I don't get this one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    Not really on topic, but this is a fantastic Twitter thread:

    How far can you get from London by bus (not coach) in 24 hours:

    https://twitter.com/politic_animal/status/1428438081871433731

    And yes, he actually does the trip.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly his route follows closed railway lines (Great Central and Rowsley to Buxton).

    If the eastern branch of HS2 is binned, I think they should look at reopening the lines between Northampton and Market Harborough, and Nuneaton and Burton to cascade some of the WCML capacity to the East Midlands and to increase journey options.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    I'm glad I don't get this one.
    If you ask TSE nicely he will explain ** innocent face ***
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    But not OnlyFans....
    In my dayjob I have a report on Onlyfans to read.

    Honestly heading up a regulatory affairs department of a financial services institution is never boring.

    May also have to read up on this, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Dirty Leeds are absolute shits for this.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/21/exclusive-europes-top-clubs-including-arsenal-man-city-bank/

    This is going to be the new Football Index.
    Man. That's evil. People think they own a bit of their football club, when in reality they own nothing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    MrEd said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    that will passed through to British consumers by higher grocery bills, and will disadvantage British exporters.

    No shit.
    All companies across the world are facing problems in delivery. It has cropped up time and time again on company results calls. Nobody has called out the U.K. (if they are global) as a specific problem.
    I think the UK has a particular transitional issue right now - historically a fair portion of drivers on British roads were from the EU. (Indeed, the UK-EU markets were very integrated: a driver might do a Devon to Birmingham delivery, then a Birmingham to Rotterdam one.) With proper Brexit, this has meant that drivers basically had to choose the EU market on the UK one, and the vast majority chose the EU one. And this led to a temporary reduction in the number of people working the UK market.

    Under normal circumstances, this would have been no big deal. People would have gone through training courses, got HGV licenses, etc.

    But with Covid, we've had 18 months of practically no new HGV licenses being issued. Which has meant a transitional issue has led to higher freight rates for British businesses. Not enough to cause massive problems, but enough that people are scrabbling where they didn't previously need to scrabble.
    Just replied to you on the previous thread @rcs1000 - yes there are definite U.K. specific issues but it was to flag this is an issue in most advanced economies.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    James Melville 🌸
    @JamesMelville
    ·
    32m
    All Covid measures in Denmark 🇩🇰 are being revoked by October 1. No mask mandates. No social distancing. No vaccine passports.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    rottenborough said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose

    That predates the Sunday Times splash
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    when ministers said workers would be be sacked for not going back to the office, they obviously didn’t mean *themselves* https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/1429148662068826115/photo/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Floater said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    I'm glad I don't get this one.
    If you ask TSE nicely he will explain ** innocent face ***
    I'm only going off what I have been told because the only website I visit that begins with www.po is PB.

    Anyhoo apparently on this Pornhub one of the most popular categories of porn is fauxcest and the most viewed in that category features stepmoms and stepsons.

    Which has led to the phrase that something/someone is more f*cked than a stepmom on Pornhub.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Right dinner, don't forget a BIG POLL is out at 8pm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    How on earth is Adam Milne not in the NZ Twenty20 side? He's brilliant.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    But not OnlyFans....
    In my dayjob I have a report on Onlyfans to read.

    Honestly heading up a regulatory affairs department of a financial services institution is never boring.

    May also have to read up on this, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Dirty Leeds are absolute shits for this.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/21/exclusive-europes-top-clubs-including-arsenal-man-city-bank/

    This is going to be the new Football Index.
    Man. That's evil. People think they own a bit of their football club, when in reality they own nothing.
    It is so bad I can only assume Deutsche Bank are involved somehow.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Who is leaking this stuff, and to what end?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    You’d think this would all be done with CGI these days:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58271871
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Maybe Boris will throw a dead cat on the table and do a Hugh Grant from Love Actually on Biden (he's already did one scene from Love Actually in the election) ?
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173
    GIN1138 said:

    Maybe Boris will throw a dead cat on the table and do a Hugh Grant from Love Actually on Biden (he's already did one scene from Love Actually in the election) ?

    Or a live alpaca in the form of a reprieve for Geronimo? (Only half joking)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited August 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right dinner, don't forget a BIG POLL is out at 8pm.

    MoE or increased Tory lead. Could be by a fair few points. Double figures?

    It's the economy! And self-employed furlough cheques are dropping on doorsteps as we speak. Free-Government money with absolutely no downside is hugely popular.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Scott_xP said:

    Who is leaking this stuff, and to what end?

    What was Dom Cummings's relationship with Dom Raab? If it was dysfunctional then I'd guess it's one of the former's spies in Whitehall. If Raab is destroyed that will still reflect poorly on the judgment of Boris, who is of course the big prize.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    OldBasing said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Maybe Boris will throw a dead cat on the table and do a Hugh Grant from Love Actually on Biden (he's already did one scene from Love Actually in the election) ?

    Or a live alpaca in the form of a reprieve for Geronimo? (Only half joking)
    Brilliant. Seems likely.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    OldBasing said:

    Or a live alpaca in the form of a reprieve for Geronimo? (Only half joking)

    I am afraid he has to be sacrificed.

    And so does Geronimo...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    "The Taliban faced the first armed challenge to their rule as former Afghan soldiers, aided by villagers, drove the militants out of three districts in the mountains north of Kabul, according to former Afghan officials."

    NYTimes
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    GIN1138 said:

    Maybe Boris will throw a dead cat on the table and do a Hugh Grant from Love Actually on Biden (he's already did one scene from Love Actually in the election) ?

    Oh yeah, the Andrew Lincoln thing that Allin -Khan plageurised the week before.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Apologies if commented on before:

    https://thefederalist.com/2021/08/19/new-poll-from-the-federalist-susquehanna-shows-joe-bidens-approval-nose-diving-following-botched-afghanistan-withdrawal/

    Basic upshot - headline poll says 49pc approval rating for Biden vs 45pc disapproval. However take the sub-segment pilled after the fall of Kabul, it’s 38pc approve, 51pc disapprove
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793
    rottenborough said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Not really on topic, but this is a fantastic Twitter thread:

    How far can you get from London by bus (not coach) in 24 hours:

    https://twitter.com/politic_animal/status/1428438081871433731

    And yes, he actually does the trip.

    Incredible.

    How long before someone finds and does a longer one?
    This is amazing. Because 1) buses are amazing, 2) he goes through almost all the bus stations I know best in Manchester, Stockport and Derby and 3) he must have actually passed within thirty feet of me yesterday, when I was in Matlock Bath.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Who is leaking this stuff, and to what end?

    What was Dom Cummings's relationship with Dom Raab? If it was dysfunctional then I'd guess it's one of the former's spies in Whitehall. If Raab is destroyed that will still reflect poorly on the judgment of Boris, who is of course the big prize.
    Well Cummings is clearly dysfunctional with everyone... including Cummings...
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    rottenborough said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose

    Given that in any government there's always some minister on the verge of being sacked, Raab's purpose seems to be to permanently inhabit that role so no-one else temporarily has to.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,996
    edited August 2021
    tlg86 said:

    You’d think this would all be done with CGI these days:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58271871

    Many big movie effects are still partially a practical effect, with use of VFX on top. Even CGI characters, including animals, are often acted out by a human, then replaced by the computer graphics.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    MrEd said:

    Apologies if commented on before:

    https://thefederalist.com/2021/08/19/new-poll-from-the-federalist-susquehanna-shows-joe-bidens-approval-nose-diving-following-botched-afghanistan-withdrawal/

    Basic upshot - headline poll says 49pc approval rating for Biden vs 45pc disapproval. However take the sub-segment pilled after the fall of Kabul, it’s 38pc approve, 51pc disapprove

    That's not the big 8PM poll we have been tolled about is it?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The last three Opinium polls have shown little change - Tory leads of 8%/8%/7%. Nothing particularly dramatic apparent from other pollsters either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    One for HY to read:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/what-i-learned-while-eavesdropping-on-the-taliban/619807/
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    justin124 said:

    The last three Opinium polls have shown little change - Tory leads of 8%/8%/7%. Nothing particularly dramatic apparent from other pollsters either.

    I agree. Nothing has changed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    tlg86 said:

    You’d think this would all be done with CGI these days:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58271871

    From the BBC picture I'd just have spliced in the end of Back To The Future Part III and hoped no-one would have noticed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Food manufacturers and restaurants are scrambling to recruit prisoners to help ease the “desperate” shortage of workers caused by Covid-19 and Brexit.

    A lack of HGV drivers, fruit pickers and factory workers has left some supermarkets struggling to keep shelves filled, with everything from fruit and vegetables to bottled water, wine and baked goods severely depleted in parts of the country.

    The British Retail Consortium and the freight trade group Logistics UK have written to Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, to warn that a shortfall of about 90,000 HGV drivers is “placing increasingly unsustainable pressure on retailers and their supply chains”. The situation is likely to get worse with children returning to school and workers returning to offices in September, they wrote on Friday.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shops-farms-and-restaurants-turn-to-prisons-to-fill-staff-shortages-j2qgd38td
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Wonder what Grabacoque makes of it it all? He had a bit of a crush on Dominic Raab... Thought he was rather dishy from what I remember... Thick as two short planks maybe but rather a dish... :D
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    rottenborough said:

    "The Taliban faced the first armed challenge to their rule as former Afghan soldiers, aided by villagers, drove the militants out of three districts in the mountains north of Kabul, according to former Afghan officials."

    NYTimes

    Time for a remake - The Seven دشمان
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right dinner, don't forget a BIG POLL is out at 8pm.

    I’ve become a little jaded at poll hyping.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Five minutes! This poll better be worth it!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    Five minutes! This poll better be worth it!

    It never is. 🥱
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    London is buzzing.

    Just had a fantastic Saturday afternoon, eating, shopping and drinking.

    Town is full of young people dressed up for a Saturday and having a great time.

    Fuck the virus.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Anabobazina said:

    London is buzzing.

    Just had a fantastic Saturday afternoon, eating, shopping and drinking.

    Town is full of young people dressed up for a Saturday and having a great time.

    Fuck the virus.

    You've morphed into SeanT? :open_mouth:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    Plentiful and backed by the masses?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Noise
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Oh!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Con lead 3
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Gallowgate said:

    If more ex-convicts gain meaningful employment, that's not necessarily a bad thing in itself.

    It's day release

    One prison has already told the association that it has no more inmates to spare after a surge in demand from short-staffed companies.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    In fairness to Chris Curtis, I think this was big enough to merit a tweet which didn't promise something totally earth-shattering.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Noise
    Very much Hung Parliament territory.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    So what do we think? 3 points from Con to Lab because of Afghanistan, but 1 point each to LD and Green from Lab because of Afghanistan.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    41% disapprove of the job @DominicRaab is doing, while 23% approve, giving him a net approval rating of -18%.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/ https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1429157102258372612/photo/1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    GIN1138 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    London is buzzing.

    Just had a fantastic Saturday afternoon, eating, shopping and drinking.

    Town is full of young people dressed up for a Saturday and having a great time.

    Fuck the virus.

    You've morphed into SeanT? :open_mouth:
    As I scrolled up and read it casually I honestly did not notice it was Anabobazina as opposed to, er, some other person beside SeanT.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Is that the big poll?

    Not that big/radical IMHO, yes bad for Con but, (if most/all of the questioning was done after Karbal fell), then not nearly as bad as it might have been.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Scott_xP said:

    Gallowgate said:

    If more ex-convicts gain meaningful employment, that's not necessarily a bad thing in itself.

    It's day release

    One prison has already told the association that it has no more inmates to spare after a surge in demand from short-staffed companies.
    That's not bad though. It'll look good on their CVs and may inspire them to get a 'proper' job in future.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Noise
    Very much Hung Parliament territory.
    Yeah but in the circumstances you'd probably expect Labour to be like 10-15% ahead?

    Labour's just not doing well enough to withstand swingbaaaaaaaaaack before GE
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,597
    I wonder how many of the working from home gang are complaining about Raab not being in the office :wink:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Leave and Remain voters tend to agree in their overall assessment of #Afghanistan, but Leave voters are less likely to support a dedicated #refugee programme for Afghans.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/ https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1429157857090412548/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    48% think the decision to pull out of #Afghanistan was wrong, and 55% think the UK is less safe because of the #Taliban's return to power.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/ https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1429157605708992517/photo/1
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Scott_xP said:

    41% disapprove of the job @DominicRaab is doing, while 23% approve, giving him a net approval rating of -18%.

    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/ https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1429157102258372612/photo/1

    I mean half of the 41% probably don't even know who he is but just generally disapprove of any politician?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    In ordinary times Raab should be a like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    Plentiful and backed by the masses?
    Doing her best despite media portrayals being consistently unfair?

    Wait, that's Disney depictions of stepmothers.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    another_richard said:

    I wonder how many of the working from home gang are complaining about Raab not being in the office :wink:

    In fairness, the criticism as I understand it is that he wasn't properly working at all. Hence all the stuff about the un-made phone call and so on.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    On a UNS basis the Tories would lose 46 seats to Labour , 4 to the LDs and probably a few to SNP.They would be at 310 - 312 seats.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,597
    Scott_xP said:

    Food manufacturers and restaurants are scrambling to recruit prisoners to help ease the “desperate” shortage of workers caused by Covid-19 and Brexit.

    A lack of HGV drivers, fruit pickers and factory workers has left some supermarkets struggling to keep shelves filled, with everything from fruit and vegetables to bottled water, wine and baked goods severely depleted in parts of the country.

    The British Retail Consortium and the freight trade group Logistics UK have written to Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, to warn that a shortfall of about 90,000 HGV drivers is “placing increasingly unsustainable pressure on retailers and their supply chains”. The situation is likely to get worse with children returning to school and workers returning to offices in September, they wrote on Friday.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shops-farms-and-restaurants-turn-to-prisons-to-fill-staff-shortages-j2qgd38td

    Delivery drivers
    Fruit pickers
    Factory workers
    Construction workers
    Restaurant workers
    Hotel workers

    Its revelatory to learn how much some people hate the thought of the working classes getting a pay rise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    edited August 2021
    Too much pressure on Livingstone here.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    another_richard said:

    I wonder how many of the working from home gang are complaining about Raab not being in the office :wink:

    I read somewhere he was on a digital detox? The opposite of WFH.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    BigRich said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Is that the big poll?

    Not that big/radical IMHO, yes bad for Con but, (if most/all of the questioning was done after Karbal fell), then not nearly as bad as it might have been.
    I tend to agree

    After the last week cross over would not be a surprise and Labour at +1 as the main opposition must be disappointing to them

    The poll does see improved ratings in handling covid

    Anyway, as I have said before all options for GE24 are possible
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    solarflare said:

    rottenborough said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose

    Given that in any government there's always some minister on the verge of being sacked, Raab's purpose seems to be to permanently inhabit that role so no-one else temporarily has to.
    Ministerial purposes?

    Boris: There for the Red wallers (for now)
    Sunak: For non-Borisites to think 'well, Sunak might be ok, let's stick around for now'
    Patel: To invoke lust in the membership for her hardline stances
    Williamson: To make everyone else look good by comparison
    Gove: To make everyone more likable by comparison
    Raab: The blank canvas to fill space when needed
    Truss: To demonstrate at least one minister is doing something (even if you think it isn't much)
    Javid: To signal the end of the reign of Dom
    The rest: Who?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Noise
    Very much Hung Parliament territory.
    Yeah but in the circumstances you'd probably expect Labour to be like 10-15% ahead?

    Labour's just not doing well enough to withstand swingbaaaaaaaaaack before GE
    Tories losing 3 is just about significant. Other parties gaining 1 each is not significant, but Labour not gaining 3 might be.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    DavidL said:

    Too much pressure on Livingstone here.

    He left Labour years ago. You can’t blame their current polling on him.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Who is leaking this stuff, and to what end?

    What was Dom Cummings's relationship with Dom Raab? If it was dysfunctional then I'd guess it's one of the former's spies in Whitehall. If Raab is destroyed that will still reflect poorly on the judgment of Boris, who is of course the big prize.
    He was quite complimentary about his time as stand in during Boris's illness to the select committee IIRC.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    solarflare said:

    rottenborough said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose

    Given that in any government there's always some minister on the verge of being sacked, Raab's purpose seems to be to permanently inhabit that role so no-one else temporarily has to.
    Ministerial purposes?

    Boris: There for the Red wallers (for now)
    Sunak: For non-Borisites to think 'well, Sunak might be ok, let's stick around for now'
    Patel: To invoke lust in the membership for her hardline stances
    Williamson: To make everyone else look good by comparison
    Gove: To make everyone more likable by comparison
    Raab: The blank canvas to fill space when needed
    Truss: To demonstrate at least one minister is doing something (even if you think it isn't much)
    Javid: To signal the end of the reign of Dom
    The rest: Who?
    Jenrick: To make everyone look clean in comparison
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Food manufacturers and restaurants are scrambling to recruit prisoners to help ease the “desperate” shortage of workers caused by Covid-19 and Brexit.

    A lack of HGV drivers, fruit pickers and factory workers has left some supermarkets struggling to keep shelves filled, with everything from fruit and vegetables to bottled water, wine and baked goods severely depleted in parts of the country.

    The British Retail Consortium and the freight trade group Logistics UK have written to Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, to warn that a shortfall of about 90,000 HGV drivers is “placing increasingly unsustainable pressure on retailers and their supply chains”. The situation is likely to get worse with children returning to school and workers returning to offices in September, they wrote on Friday.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shops-farms-and-restaurants-turn-to-prisons-to-fill-staff-shortages-j2qgd38td

    Delivery drivers
    Fruit pickers
    Factory workers
    Construction workers
    Restaurant workers
    Hotel workers

    Its revelatory to learn how much some people hate the thought of the working classes getting a pay rise.
    As I explained in the other thread, the 'working classes' getting a pay rise is all well and good but not if said 'pay rise' is cancelled out by increased costs of everyday items.

    Of course it's the comfortably well off who would be unaffected by such price rises.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    kle4 said:

    solarflare said:

    rottenborough said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose

    Given that in any government there's always some minister on the verge of being sacked, Raab's purpose seems to be to permanently inhabit that role so no-one else temporarily has to.
    Ministerial purposes?

    Boris: There for the Red wallers (for now)
    Sunak: For non-Borisites to think 'well, Sunak might be ok, let's stick around for now'
    Patel: To invoke lust in the membership for her hardline stances
    Williamson: To make everyone else look good by comparison
    Gove: To make everyone more likable by comparison
    Raab: The blank canvas to fill space when needed
    Truss: To demonstrate at least one minister is doing something (even if you think it isn't much)
    Javid: To signal the end of the reign of Dom
    The rest: Who?
    Don't forget JRM ;)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    So what do we think? 3 points from Con to Lab because of Afghanistan, but 1 point each to LD and Green from Lab because of Afghanistan.
    I'd guess that Cons-> Stay at home is quite a big part of the story.

    But the thing to remember is that poll-to-poll changes are nearly always MOE- it's the trend in the swarm that matters.

    And MOE can cover a big range of outcomes; C41L34 would be a fairly hefty Conservative win, C37L38 would surely see Starmer as PM.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Noise
    Very much Hung Parliament territory.
    Yeah but in the circumstances you'd probably expect Labour to be like 10-15% ahead?

    Labour's just not doing well enough to withstand swingbaaaaaaaaaack before GE
    Not in the context of a Pandemic with the Opposition parties having been frozen out for an extended period. 'Swingback' only tends to happen when the Government has fallen well behind in the polls. There is actually a good possibility that the Tories will perform less well at the next GE than implied by this poll.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    another_richard said:

    Its revelatory to learn how much some people hate the thought of the working classes getting a pay rise.

    Brexit makes everything more expensive.

    Why wasn't that on a bus?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 36% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    GRN: 6% (+1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 19 - 20 Aug
    Chgs. w/ 06 Aug
    https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-19th-august-2021/

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gallowgate said:

    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Food manufacturers and restaurants are scrambling to recruit prisoners to help ease the “desperate” shortage of workers caused by Covid-19 and Brexit.

    A lack of HGV drivers, fruit pickers and factory workers has left some supermarkets struggling to keep shelves filled, with everything from fruit and vegetables to bottled water, wine and baked goods severely depleted in parts of the country.

    The British Retail Consortium and the freight trade group Logistics UK have written to Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, to warn that a shortfall of about 90,000 HGV drivers is “placing increasingly unsustainable pressure on retailers and their supply chains”. The situation is likely to get worse with children returning to school and workers returning to offices in September, they wrote on Friday.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shops-farms-and-restaurants-turn-to-prisons-to-fill-staff-shortages-j2qgd38td

    Delivery drivers
    Fruit pickers
    Factory workers
    Construction workers
    Restaurant workers
    Hotel workers

    Its revelatory to learn how much some people hate the thought of the working classes getting a pay rise.
    As I explained in the other thread, the 'working classes' getting a pay rise is all well and good but not if said 'pay rise' is cancelled out by increased costs of everyday items.

    Of course it's the comfortably well off who would be unaffected by such price rises.
    It depends upon your circumstances of course, but there's no reason why a real terms pay rise should be entirely cancelled out by increased everyday costs since the cost of labour is just a fraction of the cost of items.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    dodrade said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Who is leaking this stuff, and to what end?

    What was Dom Cummings's relationship with Dom Raab? If it was dysfunctional then I'd guess it's one of the former's spies in Whitehall. If Raab is destroyed that will still reflect poorly on the judgment of Boris, who is of course the big prize.
    He was quite complimentary about his time as stand in during Boris's illness to the select committee IIRC.

    5D chess - make everyone think he likes Raab so no one suspects him when he furtively sets out to crush him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    another_richard said:

    Its revelatory to learn how much some people hate the thought of the working classes getting a pay rise.

    Brexit makes everything more expensive.

    Why wasn't that on a bus?
    It was.

    If you want to make things cheap by suppressing wages then that was the Stuart Rose argument made in the referendum.

    Unsurprisingly people found "make goods cheaper by not getting pay rises" to be an uncompelling argument.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,597
    another_richard said:

    I wonder how many of the working from home gang are complaining about Raab not being in the office :wink:

    Now this does show that Boris is a 'soft boss' and he's certainly not someone who would like one of his holidays interrupting.

    But that's not an excuse for Raab.

    Whether or not Raab being back in Westminster would have helped or not the imagery for an ambitious politician demanded that he was so.

    So a question arises about Raab's political judgement and you can double that by asking why Raab was taking a posho foreign holiday this year at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited August 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    solarflare said:

    rottenborough said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    2h
    Dominic Raab is not going to be sacked (unless something else happens), partly because he serves a purpose

    Given that in any government there's always some minister on the verge of being sacked, Raab's purpose seems to be to permanently inhabit that role so no-one else temporarily has to.
    Ministerial purposes?

    Boris: There for the Red wallers (for now)
    Sunak: For non-Borisites to think 'well, Sunak might be ok, let's stick around for now'
    Patel: To invoke lust in the membership for her hardline stances
    Williamson: To make everyone else look good by comparison
    Gove: To make everyone more likable by comparison
    Raab: The blank canvas to fill space when needed
    Truss: To demonstrate at least one minister is doing something (even if you think it isn't much)
    Javid: To signal the end of the reign of Dom
    The rest: Who?
    Don't forget JRM ;)
    Point of order: Not a Cabinet Minister (but attends it).

    Leader of the House organises the business, so I think that makes him Boris's Commons secretary :)
This discussion has been closed.